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Thursday, January 31, 2019

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Futures Shift Lower

General Comments
Livestock futures trade has moved sharply lower, allowing for increased underlying pressure in live cattle and lean hog markets. April live cattle and lean hog trade have posted triple-digit losses, as traders adjust positions at the end of the month. Limited volume is expected to be seen through the next couple hours as current losses are likely to hold. Corn markets are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 4 1/2 cents lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 55 points higher with Nasdaq up 96 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Triple-digit losses have quickly moved into live cattle trade at midday following choppy and unsettled market moves that ranged between moderate gains and strong losses. April and June futures are holding $1.20 per cwt losses at midday as traders are quickly adjusting these nearby contracts due to recent contract highs. Market adjustments at the end of January are having a much more significant impact that any other fundamental or technical factor. Cash cattle interest has remained extremely sluggish through the morning with a few bids seen in Texas at $121 per cwt. Bids that were seen midweek in Nebraska have not been restated at this point, creating the uncertainty of packer activity Thursday. At this point, packers may wait until Friday, and moving into the month of February before inking deals. Asking prices are seen at $126 and higher live and $200 to $203 dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.49 lower (select) and down $2.04 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 88 total loads reported (56 loads of choice cuts, 6 loads of select cuts, 10 loads of trimmings, 16 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Limited pressure seen in the first two hours of trade has sparked moderate to firm price pressure midday. This has allowed for losses of 60 to 90 cents per cwt to quickly step into the market, focusing on lack of support seen in live cattle futures. Although the technical and fundamental tone of the market remains firm, there continues to be increased end of the month positioning flooding through the complex.
LEAN HOGS:
Strong pressure has continued to move back into the lean hog complex as technical weakness is developing in April contracts. Despite light buyer support moving back into the complex during the early minutes of trade, any sense of buyer activity has quickly eroded with triple digit losses seen in April contracts. The lack of support in actively traded April contracts is sparking additional weakness through the rest of the complex with contracts holding 32 cents to $1.45 per cwt losses. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values are higher on the morning report with prices gaining $1.54 per cwt at $68.51 per cwt with 145 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/29 is $57.67, down $0.22, with a projected two-day index is $57.40, down $0.27.

#completecalfcare

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Limited End-of-Month Trade Activity Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Limited trade is expected to develop Thursday in cash cattle, although packers are expected to become more aggressive as the day continues. Initial bids are expected to redevelop at $195 dressed basis, similar to midweek with early live bids likely to be around $122 per cwt. Asking prices remain firm at $125 and higher live and $200 and higher dressed. Friday trade is likely at this point unless there are wide shifts in futures trade. Futures are expected to remain sluggish early Thursday morning with light follow-through buyer support likely as traders continue to slowly advance price levels higher. Following contract highs set once again midweek in April and June contracts, the focus on additional market gains continues to develop.
Cash hog prices are steady to $1 per cwt lower with most bids steady to weak Thursday morning. Light trade is expected in all lean hog futures contracts with limited pressure likely to develop in most nearby contracts. The inability to hold onto gains Wednesday has sparked some additional market uncertainty with traders focusing on the concerns that may continue to move back into the market and overall lack of building support through the end of the month. With April contracts trading near $62 per cwt, at the lowest level since August, additional pressure may continue to develop based on concerns of growing pork supplies through the summer months. Slaughter runs at the plant are likely to still be reduced due to cold weather limiting transportation, at 405,000 head Thursday. With Saturday runs at 350,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1) Strong support redeveloping in stock markets has pushed the Dow Jones Index above 25,000 points once again. This is the highest close since early December, and gaining 3,300 points from market lows a little over a month ago.1) The impact of the "Artic blast" experienced through most of the Midwest is still not fully known. Although this is expected to have significantly disrupted daily gains, but overall death loss is still not available to the market.
2)Steady to strong futures buyer support continues to move into nearby contracts. With April and June contracts now both setting contract highs, the focus on follow-through buying activity is expected to develop.
2)Pressure in feeder cattle trade is starting to focus on the potential for additional softness to develop based on firm grain market support. This may continue to add even more uncertainty to the entire complex.
3)Deferred lean hog futures have continued to show market stability despite the firm pressure in nearby contracts. This could help to bring more support back to all trade, once traders move their focus off of summer supply issues.3) Market weakness has continued to pressure pork values. With aggressive losses in several primal cuts midweek, triple-digit losses were seen in the overall pork cutout value.
4) Continued hope that trade negotiations with China will bring meaningful trade resolution to the pork industry and bring increased overall support is keeping some traders cautiously optimistic.4) Continued reduced packer runs are expected Thursday as the cold weather is limiting the amount of hogs that have been able to reach plants due to the cold weather. Although temperatures are expected to ease through the day, early shift production is expected to be limited in several plants.

#completecalfcare

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Report - Narrow Shifts Limit Market Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS: Livestock futures moved in a narrow range Wednesday afternoon with lean hogs backing away from firm early gains and feeder cattle moving off of moderate initial losses. The tepid market temperature was in sharp contrast to the frigid winter blast that engulfed much of the Midwest on Wednesday. The trade initially seemed to be concerned about the subzero temperatures, but then lost interest through the trading session. Cash market direction was limited Wednesday with a few token bids seen in Nebraska. Active trade is not likely to be seen until late Thursday or sometime Friday. Asking prices remain at $125 and higher live, and $200 to $203 per cwt dressed. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.21 lower ($47-$52, weighted average $51.37) on 2,790 head sold. Corn futures were higher in light activity with the March contract up 4 cents. The Dow Jones Index was 434 points higher with Nasdaq up 154 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Narrow gains developed in live cattle futures following a limited but mixed trading range Wednesday. Futures closed the session $0.32 lower to $0.30 higher. Spot-month February was down 32 cents per cwt in light volume. After trading mixed most of the session, all other contract months moved higher in limited activity. Traders pushed the April contract to new highs for the second consecutive day. With the April contract holding at $128 per cwt, follow-through buyer support is likely Thursday as traders close out January. Beef cut-outs: mixed, $0.43 higher (select, $213.00) to down $0.08 (choice, $218.05) with moderate demand and offerings on a total of 133 loads (66 loads of choice cuts, 23 loads of select cuts, 16 load of trimmings, 27 loads of coarse grinds).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Limited direction is expected to be seen Thursday with light bids expected to redevelop through the morning in the same range as seen Wednesday. Trade is expected to be pushed off until late Thursday or sometime Friday.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures bounced mostly higher as late-day buying followed stability in live cattle trade. Futures closed mixed, $0.27 lower to $0.20 higher. Limited movement in the live cattle trade and firm gains in corn futures pressured the cattle trade Wednesday. But with limited follow-through pressure, prices inched higher through the last half of the session. Follow-through buying could be seen again Thursday. CME cash feeder index for 1/29 is $142.99, down $0.08.
LEAN HOGS: Hog futures eroded on a lack of buyer interest. Futures closed $0.35 lower to $0.52 higher. Early support was unable to hold throughout the session, allowing April through July futures contracts to erode slightly in late-day trade. Traders continue to be concerned about ample supplies and uncertain demand. Though there is still hope for trade talks with China, most traders aren't willing to bet on big export gains at this point. Pork prices tumbled lower with pressure in all primal cuts other than ribs. Pork cutout values fell $1.70 per cwt, moving to $66.97 per cwt on 311 loads. CME cash lean index for 1/28 is $57.89, down 33. DTN Projected lean index for 1/29: $57.67, down $0.22.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Packers are trying to get back into a more normal routine following the extreme cold weather limiting hog movement and packer activity. Most bids are expected to be steady with limited packer reductions expected through the end of the week. Thursday slaughter is expected to hit to 405,000 head, dependent primarily on weather conditions. Saturday runs are expected to hit 310,000 head.


#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Trade Keeps Volume Light

General Comments
Livestock futures are mixed in narrow trading ranges at midday following limited volume through the entire morning. The focus of futures and cash markets has been centered around the extremely cold weather conditions in most of the Midwest, affecting both cattle and hog operations and transportation of animals to processors. Corn markets are higher in light trade. March corn futures are 2 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 337 points higher with Nasdaq up 93 points
LIVE CATTLE:
Mixed prices are seen through the entire complex with traders focusing on limited market activity and very little outside market direction. The cold weather continues to be the main focus as it will impact beef production and overall movement of cattle to market. But even this has only limited interest midmorning Wednesday as prices are hovering from 10 cents lower to 20 cents higher. There is growing support in April contracts, but with limited activity, prices are expected to move very little through the end of the month. Cash cattle inquiry has slowly started Wednesday morning with a few token bids developing in Nebraska at $195 per cwt. There is expected to be increased packer interest through the rest of the day, although trade is not likely until late in the week. Asking prices are seen at $125 and higher live and $200 to $203 dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.16 higher (select) and up $0.26 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 92 total loads reported (45 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 13 loads of trimmings, 18 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Light pressure is once again developing in feeder cattle trade following limited support trying to develop through the morning. Light gains seem to be holding in live cattle trade, but the weather concerns and impact of extremely cold weather in much of the Midwest is being muted due to the limited trade activity and concerns on how beef demand will be impacted through the complex. Nearby contracts are holding losses of 2 to 25 cents per cwt midmorning.
LEAN HOGS:Firm gains seen early Wednesday across lean hog trade has started to slowly erode with prices in nearby contracts hovering from 45 cents lower to 20 cents higher. The late morning pullback in April through July futures seems to be backing away from the weather related support seen early in the session. The inability to hold gains at closing bell will once again spark increased additional pressure through the entire complex. This may add even more uncertainty through the entire complex and shift prices even lower at month end. Cash prices are unavailable at this time on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices are unavailable at this time on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values are lower on the morning report with prices falling $1.37 per cwt at $67.30 per cwt with 186 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/28 is $57.89, down 0.33, with a projected two-day index is unavailable at this time.

#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Weather Conditions Take Priority

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cash cattle markets are expected to remain limited as feedlot managers focus all of their attention on keeping animals fed and healthy through the extreme weather conditions. Asking prices are likely to redevelop at $125 and higher live and $200 to $203 dressed. It might be Thursday or Friday before there is any active trade, and it could be Thursday before any bids develop. Futures trade is expected to be steady to firm through the morning with traders focusing on the weather impact on herd and animal health at a minimum. Limited weight gains will be seen in the next few days, and there is increased potential for death loss in cow herds and feedlots. Because the extreme cold snap is expected to be generally short-lived, this may not have a significant market impact, but it will likely shift market activity.
Cash hog bids are expected to remain steady to $1 per cwt lower given the pressure in the complex. Although the limited amount of hogs moving to market Wednesday will likely keep prices near the steady mark, with firmer cash markets potentially developing later in the day. Futures trade is focusing on building additional stability after previous attempts by buyers to step back into the complex. At current price levels, markets remain oversold, with the potential to rebound through the next couple of weeks. But growing uncertainty remains about long-term demand given the expected supply growth through the summer months. Slaughter runs at the plant are likely to be reduced to 275,000 head Wednesday with Saturday runs increasing to 350,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1) April live cattle contracts have moved to contract highs once again, sparking increased underlying support through the entire live cattle complex.1) Extreme cold temperatures have the potential to turn deadly for both animals and humans across much of the Midwest. This will create increased challenges in all areas of cattle production and packer processing through the next couple of days.
2)Boxed beef values bounced higher early in the week, creating the expectation that additional market gains may continue through the end of the month.
2) Limited recent support developing in nearby feeder cattle contracts is causing some questions of follow-through support. Traders are closely monitoring feeder cattle direction, as recent gains could quickly erode.
3)Limited plant runs are scheduled for Wednesday due to the danger of moving hogs by truck in some areas where temperatures are subzero and wind chills are 30 to 60 below. This should help to support cash values in order to coax as many hogs through plant doors as possible.3) Limited hogs moving to packing plants through the day is expected to limit movement due to the cold weather conditions. This will back up market ready hogs, potentially creating cash price pressure through the first week of February.
4) The pullback in overall pork processed this week should support pork cutout values on a short-term basis.4) The extreme weather conditions create a shock for hogs moving to packing plants, much more than cattle. With confinement hogs spending their lives in climate-controlled conditions, the truck ride to processing plants is an extreme shock to their system. Not to mention the increased potential for breakdowns in trucks due to the weather along the way.

#completecalfcare

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Traders Shoot for Stability

GENERAL COMMENTS: Light support trickled into several nearby lean hog futures contracts Tuesday, ending the aggressive market liquidation seen over the last week. April and May contracts ended 10 to 20 cents per cwt higher. Stability returned to the rest of the livestock market, as well, with cattle futures firming in all but nearby feeder cattle trade. Increased buyer support pushed live cattle futures to new contract highs. Activity in cash cattle markets was limited to a few asking prices scattered through the bitterly cold Midwest. Asking prices have just been seen in the North at this point with live cattle priced at $125 and higher, while dressed cattle are holding asking prices of $200 to $203 per cwt. Bids are undeveloped, and will likely remain that way over the next day or so. Active trade is not expected until the tail end of the week. National Daily Direct afternoon hog report is $0.09 higher ($47.25-$52, weighted average of $51.44) on 8,663 head sold. Corn futures were lower in light activity with March futures down 2 1/2 cents. Dow Jones Index is 36 points higher with the Nasdaq down 57 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Despite limited trade volume, the April live contract reached a new high Tuesday. Overall, futures closed $0.02 to $0.42 higher. The April live cattle futures contract barely broke through short-term support seen over the last couple of weeks, but the move was just enough to set new contract highs at $127.80 per cwt. Spring and early summer contracts also saw uniform gains of 40 to 42 cents per cwt. The extreme cold across most of cattle country is creating production and transportations issue. This is helping to support the futures trade in the short term, but likely won't affect market direction in the long term. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.96 (select, $212.57) to up $0.73 (choice, $218.13) with good demand and moderate offerings on a total of 114 loads (69 loads of choice cuts, 18 loads of select cuts, 10 load of trimmings, 16 loads of coarse grinds).
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Asking prices are starting to slowly develop in the North at $125 and higher live and $200 to $203 dressed. The lack of bids is likely to keep market activity quiet until late in the week.
FEEDER CATTLE: Mixed trade developed with spot January futures prices eroding in limited volume. Futures closed mixed, down $0.82 to up $0.22. Light-to-moderate buyer support seemed to spark a little additional life in deferred feeder cattle contracts. Traders continue to exit the spot-month January futures, rolling into other spring and summer contracts. CME cash feeder index for 1/28 is $143.09, down $0.40.
LEAN HOGS: Hog futures were $0.65 lower to $0.37 higher as traders tried to adjust positions Tuesday. Even though prices have bounced higher and lower the last couple of trading sessions, markets remain stuck in a mixed range as traders try to get a sense of market support. This could result in increased buyer movement through the end of the week. The extreme cold is limiting pork processing, as transportation to packing plants remains a concern. This will significantly reduce plant schedules Wednesday. Pork prices inched higher with light-to-moderate gains in all primal cuts except rib and hams, which eroded slightly. Pork cutout values were up $0.17 per cwt, moving to $68.67 per cwt on 386 loads. CME cash lean index for 1/25 is $58.22, down $0.28. DTN Projected lean index for 1/28: $57.89, down $0.33.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. General price pressure is expected to develop through the week. Most bids are expected steady as the limited amount of hogs available to get delivered to plants likely to stimulate buying activity in some areas. Most bids are expected to be 50 cents lower. Wednesday slaughter is expected to hit to 275,000 head, dependent primarily on weather. Saturday runs are expected to hit 310,000 head as packers try to make up for lighter weekly runs.

#completecalfcare

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Narrow Gains Develop In Morning Session

General Comments
Livestock futures have posted limited gains midday Tuesday as the focus on light buying activity has kept prices firm. Live cattle futures are trading 10 to 40 cents per cwt higher in nearby contracts as traders adjust to the renewed support in beef values Tuesday. Hog trade has posted firm morning support, although this is still not changing the overall trend of the complex at this point. Corn markets are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 2 3/4 cents lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 92 points higher with Nasdaq down 44 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Narrow gains have held in live cattle trade Tuesday morning as traders have slowly backed away from initial early gains. April live cattle futures are trading 27 cents per cwt higher, moving to $127.65 per cwt with the focus on renewed gains in beef values and the potential for increased buyer support over the next couple of days. Weather concerns continue to support buyer activity with the recent snowstorms and expected extreme cold weather conditions significantly reducing gains, and affecting overall performance. Cash cattle markets are undeveloped at this point with bids and asking prices still undeveloped. Trade is likely to be delayed until the second half of the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.32 higher (select) and up $1.61 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 67 total loads reported (40 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 8 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Limited support has developed through the entire feeder cattle complex. There is increased market support still holding across the entire cattle market, although limited pressure is seen in spot month January futures, light gains are still holding in other nearby contracts. The lack of buyer interest in the complex has allowed prices to back away from session highs, although there is still underlying support seen through the entire cattle complex, the focus on strong follow-through buying is being curbed by trader inactivity and light volume Tuesday.
LEAN HOGS:
Firm gains have moved into lean hog futures trade with February futures the lone contract trading lower Tuesday morning with all other contracts moving higher through the morning. The most aggressive support has developed in April and May contracts with traders focusing more on adjusting positions following the long market slide, rather than expected long-term support. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.15 at $51.20 per cwt, with the range from $47.25 to $51.75 on 3,928 head reported sold. Cash prices unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values are lower on the morning report with prices falling $0.02 per cwt at $68.48 per cwt with 209 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/25 is $58.22, down 0.28, with a projected two-day index is $57.89, down 0.33.

#completecalfcare

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Futures Expected Firm

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cash cattle trade is expected to remain quiet with bids and asking prices undeveloped Tuesday morning. It is likely that active trade may happen until sometime Thursday or Friday. Bids may start to slowly develop midweek, but probably quiet until later in the week. Feeder cattle futures are expected to still carry a bullish tone through the first half of the week following a $3 per cwt rally in nearby contracts, pushing prices off of January lows. The firm support in live cattle trade through the entire month seems to be slowly bringing additional market interest back to the market. Despite the firm undertone in the complex, trade may actually remain mixed as traders focus on potential shifts in outside trade as the overall support may bring about positioning opportunities at the end of the month.
Cash hog bids are expected to redevelop steady to $1 per cwt lower early Tuesday morning with most bids 50 cents per cwt lower. The continued pressure in futures trade is adding even more weakness to the cash market as packers extensively focus on protecting margins and lowering out-of-pocket spending. Futures trade is expected to be mixed to mostly lower with the recent losses adding even more bearishness as traders expect more production gains through the summer months. This will put more pressure on pork demand growth, as traders focus on export market uncertainty. Slaughter runs at the plant are likely to hit 477,000 head Tuesday.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1) Strong follow-through gains in feeder cattle trade early in the week has sparked increased buyer activity through all cattle markets.1) The arctic blast moving through the Midwest through the week is quickly eroding feedlot gains as feedlot managers focus more on maintaining health than feed conversions in these cold temperatures.
2)Live cattle futures are nearing contract highs once again in nearby April contracts. A move to contract highs before the end of January could spark additional underlying support through the entire complex, stimulating additional buyer support across the complex.
2) Firm gains in futures trade has had limited strength in beef cutout values at this point. The inability to shift beef prices higher in the next couple of days will likely limit the potential for continued buying activity in the futures market.
3)Wholesale pork prices have shown support early in the week, helping to take the emphasis off pressure in futures and cash price moves. This has the potential to rebuild market activity through the next week, adding stability to the complex.3) Cash hog prices continue to shift lower as packers are limiting overall spending through the complex based on recent weakness across the entire complex.
4) Packer schedules continue to remain aggressive, even though the recent weather issues have made transportation difficult, as well as cold temperatures challenging on plant equipment and facilities. The ability to sustain aggressive packer runs will limit the backlog of hogs through the spring and summer months.4) Misinformation on African swine fever, how it is spread, and who and what the disease impacts continues worldwide as well as in the U.S. This is likely impacting overall pork demand.

#completecalfcare

Monday, January 28, 2019

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Renewed Feeder Cattle Buying Boosts Cattle Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS: Live and feeder cattle futures saw firm gains Monday as traders tried to adjust positions following losses late last week. The tone of cattle trade is starting to firm once again with live cattle prices nearing contract highs. Hog futures shifted lower in most contract months with the weaker tone of the market offset by limited short-covering. Activity in the cash cattle market has remained quiet following steady-to-lower trade seen late last week. New Showlists are generally smaller, with gains in Colorado offset by lower offerings in all other states. Bids and asking prices are undeveloped and are likely to remain quiet until midweek or later. The National Daily Direct Hog reports were delayed due to packer submission problems. Cash hog prices were unavailable at the time these comments were posted. Corn futures ended lower in light activity with the March contract 1/2 cent lower. The Dow Jones Index is 235 points lower with the Nasdaq down 83 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Late-day gains pushed live cattle futures $0.22 to $0.52 higher. Light-to-moderate buyer support is quickly moving into the live cattle complex this week. April live cattle futures have moved back above $127 per cwt, and the contract is now within striking distance (40 cents per cwt) of setting new contract highs set during the middle of January. A move back above these levels is expected to spark renewed fundamental support, which should signal strong buyer support through early February. Beef cut-outs: mixed, $0.42 lower (select, $211.61) to up $0.39 (choice, $217.40) with moderate demand and offerings on a total of 121 loads (71 loads of choice cuts, 17 loads of select cuts, 14 load of trimmings, 18 loads of coarse grinds).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Limited interest is expected to be seen Tuesday morning as bids and asking prices are likely to remain silent until midweek or later. Active trade is likely to be pushed to the last half of the week.
FEEDER CATTLE: Buyer interest helped to stabilize feeder cattle futures Monday. Futures ended the session $0.10 to $0.85 higher. The gains offset late-week pressure that developed before the weekend. The January futures contract is showing limited interest as active trade has moved to the March and April contracts. All spring and summer contracts closed 72 to 85 cents higher Monday. Follow-through buyer support is expected to develop again early Tuesday. CME cash feeder index for 1/25 is $143.66, up $0.45.
LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures settled mixed ($0.55 lower to $0.20 higher) in a narrow-to-moderate trading range despite a weaker market tone Monday. Sharp end-of-the-week losses Friday continued to pressure the lean hog market Monday. The lack of active seller activity opened the door for short-covering, which allowed limited buyer support to move back into the market. The market remains weak as traders continue to focus on fundamental and technical weakness. Additional losses could be seen the rest of the week. Pork values improved Monday following gains in all primal cuts, except bellies. Pork cutout values added $0.83 per cwt, moving to $68.50 per cwt on 286 loads. CME cash lean index for 1/24 is $58.50, unchanged. DTN Projected lean index for 1/25: $58.22, down $0.28.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Follow-through pressure is expected to develop early Tuesday morning as packers try to adjust spending, considering the market pressure over the last couple of weeks. Most bids are expected to be 50 cents lower. Tuesday slaughter is expected to hit to 477,000 head, but weather conditions may adjust procurement rates lower.

#completecalfcare

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Gains Leading Cattle Futures Higher

General Comments
Firm gains have quickly moved into cattle trade midday Monday with early gains in feeder cattle trade sparking additional underlying support through the entire complex. Live cattle trade is holding narrow to moderate gains based on the support in feeder cattle futures. Early pressure redeveloping in lean hog futures is keeping prices sluggish, while short covering is limiting overall market pressure. Corn markets are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 1 1/4 cents lower. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 328 points lower with Nasdaq down 101 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Light price support has slowly trickled into the complex through morning trade with nearby contracts holding 20 to 40 cent gains at midday. The ability to spark additional feeder cattle buying is helping to bring about increased market support in all cattle trade the last week of January. Traders seem to be focusing on market stability in nearby and deferred live cattle trade, which may keep gains minimal over the next couple hours. Cash cattle activity remains sluggish with very limited movement expected through the first half of the week. Active trade is likely to be pushed off until Thursday or Friday similar to the last couple of weeks. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $0.63 higher (select) and up $0.59 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 67 total loads reported (40 loads of choice cuts, 5 loads of select cuts, 13 loads of trimmings, 9 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Active buyer support is seen Monday morning in feeder cattle trade as traders try to offset pressure seen late last week. The focus on price support moving into all cattle markets is helped by the potential for increased underlying support through the entire complex. Spot month January futures remain under light pressure, as trade interest has moved into March and April futures. March contracts are trading 72 cents per cwt as firming support through the entire market.
LEAN HOGS:
Light to moderate pressure has redeveloped through the morning across lean hog trade. There remains increased overall nervousness concerning trade activity and the ability to sustain strong pork demand through the rest of the year. Early short covering moved into lean hog trade, helping to create some temporary market stability, but the market remains generally bearish with little long-term direction developing. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.29 at $51.55 per cwt, with the range from $46.00 to $52.00 on 3,927 head reported sold. Cash prices lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.35 at $50.94 per cwt, with the range from $46.00 to $52.00 on 892 head reported sold. Pork carcass values are higher on the morning report with prices adding $1.98 per cwt at $69.65 per cwt with 123 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/24 is $58.50, unchanged, with a projected two-day index is $58.22, down 0.28.

#completeherdhealth

Monday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Early Pressure Expected Monday in Hog Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:
With cash cattle trade settling steady to $1 per cwt lower at the end of last week, packers and feedlot managers will quickly go back to work collecting inventory levels and new showlists, in an attempt to spark additional direction after a stagnant month of January. At this point, little direction is expected through the first half of the week, as the majority of trade is likely to remain quiet until Thursday or Friday. Live cattle futures are expected mixed with limited volume early Monday as a combination of spillover buying and position-taking is expected to develop and potentially set the tone for limited activity through the end of the month.
Cash hog trade is expected to remain sluggish through most of the morning with bids steady to $1 per cwt lower. The concern of firm fundamental and technical pressure is adding to the weak cash market moves, and could add to overall weaker bids. Most bids are expected to be 50 cents per cwt lower as packers start the week and set the tone for the last week of January. Futures trade is expected to remain under pressure with the generally bearish tone holding across the complex. Some buyer activity is expected in order to cover short positions, but it is uncertain at this time if there will be enough critical mass to offset the weaker market structure. Slaughter runs at the plant are likely to hit 477,000 head Monday.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1) Firm underlying buyer support is holding in nearby live cattle trade going into the week following the potential to erode previous price support from the last couple of weeks. This could help to sustain commercial buyer activity through the end of the month.1) Strong end-of-the-week losses redeveloped in feeder cattle trade. This clearly endangered the potential for unchallenged market support moving back into the cattle complex at the end of the month.
2)Aggressive support will continue in the stock market through the month of January. Dow Jones Index has rallied 4,000 points in the last month as the index is flirting with 25,000 points for the first time since early December. And the start of the recent aggressive market slide. This could spark additional underlying support in all commodity markets.
2) Cash cattle values have been unable to show any significant support during early 2019. This is expected to limit packer spending through the end of the month as long as cattle remain available for daily needs.
3)The passage of a temporary budget and reopening the partially shuttered government allows for USDA to be fully open Monday for the first time in over a month. This may give some additional direction to recent meat product moves as reports are to be reinstated.3) Continued pressure in pork cutout values in the last two weeks have eroded packer margins from the early-month levels. This is expected to add even more pressure to cash trade activity as packers start to manage margins tighter going into the month of February.
4) Pork cutout values bounced higher for the first time all week Friday. Despite the recent pressure, this could help spark additional longer-term support in the coming weeks.4) Recent sharp losses in lean hog futures trade has quickly eroded recent market support, with nearby contracts quickly moving through the November short-term support levels, and trading at the lowest levels since last August.


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Friday, January 25, 2019

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Hog Market Under Pressure Again

GENERAL COMMENTS: Lean hog futures were down by triple digits Friday, adding more weakness to livestock markets. Traders focused on fundamental and technical factors through late January. Cattle futures were mixed in light trade. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Feb LC, off $0.47; Apr LC, off $0.52; Jan FC, up $1.92; Mar FC, up $0.80; Feb LH, off $2.85; Apr LH, off $4.15. Cash cattle trade developed through Friday afternoon with live trade seen mostly $123 per cwt, $1 per cwt lower than last week. Dressed cattle in the North sold steady with last week's price levels, at $197 per cwt. A few more cattle may sell late Friday, but the tone of the market is already set. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.15 lower ($46-$52.19, weighted average of $51.32). Corn futures are higher in light activity. March futures were 3 1/4 cents higher. Dow Jones Index is 183 points higher with the Nasdaq up 91 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures ended the week mixed, $0.45 lower to $0.70 higher. The live cattle market has been the most stable of all livestock trade this week. Short-term and long-term trade went in opposite directions Friday with nearby contracts posting firm gains late Friday while deferred contracts saw limited losses. The market remains generally neutral at this point, but the strong support early in the month seems to be carrying over. The absence of the monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday due to the partial government shutdown may add more uncertainty to the market. Beef cut-outs: lower, down $0.11 (select, $212.03) to down $0.74 (choice, $217.01) with good demand and light offerings. There was a total of 97 loads (52 loads of choice cuts, 13 loads of select cuts, 7 load of trimmings, 25 loads of coarse grinds).
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Activity Monday is expected to remain at a standstill with packers and feedlot managers trying to gain accurate numbers of cattle sold late this week, as well as distribution of showlists.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures were $0.22 to $0.70 lower as traders adjusted positions ahead of the weekend. Limited market pressure Friday allowed for initial narrow losses to gain momentum through the end of the session. There may be some additional market shifts early next week, but mixed moves in live cattle trade and limited outside market direction may spark additional buyer activity. CME cash feeder index for 1/24 is $143.21, up $0.97.
LEAN HOGS: Sharp losses continued Friday in lean hogs with futures closing $0.47 to $1.45 lower. February through August futures traded $1 to $2 per cwt lower through the end of the week. The most aggressive pressure held in nearby futures as traders remain concerned about underlying softness in pork values, which is sparking demand uncertainty. Pork values bounced higher at the end of the week following a three-day market slide. Pork cutout values added $0.40 per cwt, moving to $67.67 per cwt on 267 loads. CME cash lean index for 1/23 is $58.50, down $0.08. DTN Projected lean index for 1/24: $58.50, unchanged.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Additional price pressure is expected to develop early next week with bids likely to be seen steady to $1 per cwt lower, although most bids will remain 50 cents lower. Monday slaughter is expected to return to 477,000 head.

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Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Strong Pressure Redevelops Across Hog Futures

General Comments
Lean hog futures have posted sharp losses with triple-digit price losses seen in all nearby contracts Friday. This has continued to weaken the overall tone of the complex, which has turned bearish through the week. Mixed trade is holding in live cattle futures with nearby live cattle futures sustaining narrow gains, but being offset by deferred contract losses. Corn markets are higher in light trade. March corn futures are 1 3/4 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 161 points higher with Nasdaq up 84 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Mixed trade has held in live cattle trade despite feeder cattle prices eroding and the overall lack of support in the limited cash business that has been seen so far through the morning. Nearby contracts are holding narrow to moderate gains with February futures leading the market higher with 35 cent gains. Deferred futures are holding moderate losses of 20 to 40 cents per cwt, with very light activity expected through the last hour of trade. Cash cattle business is starting to slowly develop in the North with live prices in western Nebraska and Colorado seen at $123 per cwt, which is $1 per cwt lower. Dressed business has been seen at $197 per cwt, fully steady with last week. Southern trade is still silent, with bids of $122 to $123 per cwt. These bids are being passed by feedlot managers with asking prices holding near $126 per cwt midday Friday. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.15 higher (select) and down $0.35 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 63 total loads reported (39 loads of choice cuts, 8 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 16 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Firm losses have quickly moved into feeder cattle trade Friday morning following the inability for buyers to move back into the complex. Prices held narrow losses through most of the morning, but traders started to focus on position taking in the last couple hours of trade, allowing for increased overall selling activity to move back into the complex. This may spark some last minute market shifts before closing bell.
LEAN HOGS:
Sharp triple-digit losses have quickly and aggressively moved back into the lean hog complex with nearby contracts hovering from $1.40 to $1.70 per cwt. There is increased overall underlying bearish tones moving into all lean hog futures following the breakthrough nearby support levels. Currently April lean hog futures are trading at the lowest price since August 2018. Current prices are still nearly $3.50 per cwt above summer 2018 lows, which at this point, it appears that prices may not erode that quickly over the near future. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.03 at $51.44 per cwt, with the range from $46.00 to $52.19 on 5,422 head reported sold. Cash prices lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.10 at $50.51 per cwt, with the range from $47.00 to $52.00 on 1,116 head reported sold. Pork carcass values are lower on the morning report with prices added $0.82 per cwt at $68.09 per cwt with 142 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/23 is $58.50, down 0.08, with a projected two-day index is $58.50, unchanged.

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Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Look Cash Trade Development

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Packer interest should start to show more early Friday with bids expected to be in similar ranges as the last couple of days, but the ability to gain access to cattle is likely to move prices steady with last week at the least, unless there's a major turnaround in futures trade. Early bids are expected to be at $122 live and $196 dressed, although asking prices will remain firmly higher at $126 to $128 live, and $200 and higher dressed. It may be late afternoon before the majority of cash market activity develops. Futures are expected mixed to firm with follow-through support stepping into both feeder cattle and live cattle trade. The possibility of end of the week position-squaring is likely to bring about moderately mixed trade at times on Friday.
Firm pressure is expected to continue through the lean hog trade until the end of the week, although given the downward price shift, and the fact that Fridays can sometimes break away from the general tone of the market due to end of the week positioning, there may be an attempt to cover short positions by some in the market. This may allow for mixed trade later in the session, even though the general tone of the market is expected to remain weaker heading into the weekend. Cash market activity is expected steady to $1 per cwt lower, although most bids are expected steady to 50 cents lower. Slaughter runs at the plant are likely to hit 465,000 head Friday, with an estimated Saturday run of 212,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1) Feeder cattle futures have rallied $3 per cwt in April futures through the holiday-shortened week. This is setting the tone to spark additional commercial buyer support through the feeder cattle complex.1) Limited interest in cash cattle trade through the week is setting up for what could be a generally steady cash trend compared to last week. This may add even more uncertainty as the overall cash prices have been able to move significantly through the month of January.
2)Even with no direction in cash cattle trade through the tail end of the week, beef cutout values have started to rebound. This is helping to instill positive market expectations through the end of January that additional fundamental support may develop.
2) Strong gains in feeder cattle futures have been met with lackluster interest in the live cattle trade. The desire and focus on additional pressure developing through the end of the week in nearby live cattle trade is likely to limit end of the week price support.
3)Despite the pullback in pork cutout values, packer margins have started to improve through the end of the week. This may help to bring about increased overall support through the complex in the next couple of days.3) Sharp losses in pork cutout values have sparked additional fundamental concerns through the entire hog complex. Pork cutout values have fallen steadily through most of the week with prices eroding nearly $3.50 per cwt the last three days.
4) Firm summer premiums continue to hold even with concerns about longer-term hog supplies and overall uneasiness concerning the ability to sustain strong pork demand. July futures continue to hold a $20 per cwt premium over spot-month February contracts.4)Cash market weakness is expected to develop Friday as packers try to limit spending and protect plant margins in light of falling lean hog futures trade and eroding pork values. This may lead to general weakness through the end of the week.

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Thursday, January 24, 2019

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Hog Futures Erode on Strong Supplies

GENERAL COMMENTS: Strong losses in lean hog futures Thursday put bearish pressure on the entire complex. Live cattle trade remained mixed in limited volume despite strong gains in feeder cattle futures. Cash market direction was limited even though a few cattle were sold in Iowa at $195 to $196 per cwt. At this point, Thursday's trade is not enough to establish a trend. However, bids have been seen in the $195- to $196-per-cwt range dressed and $122 live. Packer interest is expected to improve on Friday. Asking prices are holding at $126 and higher live and $200 dressed. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.68 lower ($47-$53, weighted average $51.58). Corn futures are mixed in light activity. March futures were 1/4 cent lower. Dow Jones Index is 171 points higher with Nasdaq up 5 points.
LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle market stabilized Thursday with futures closing mixed, $0.20 lower to $0.35 higher. Nearby contracts trickled lower following widespread losses in hog trade as well as outside market pressure that may affect short-term movement of beef products. Deferred futures were heavily influenced by renewed support moving into feeder cattle trade. More late-week support could surface Friday. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.10 (select, $212.14) to up $0.54 (choice, $217.75) with light demand and moderate offerings on a total of 124 loads (74 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 12 load of trimmings, 22 loads of coarse grinds).
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Both sides seem resigned to another late-Friday trade schedule. Bids are expected to redevelop near $122 live and $196 dressed, but packer interest should improve through the morning. Asking prices will likely remain firm during most of the day.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures were $0.15 to $0.75 higher on increased buyer activity. Feeder cattle futures, which have been severely beaten down during the first three weeks of 2019, have regained some life with prices rallying over $3 per cwt as traders try to focus on longer-term support and continued firmness in the live cattle trade. CME cash feeder index for 1/23 is $142.24, up $0.66.
LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures were $0.40 to $1.35 lower as market pressure continued the last half of the week. Futures have broken through both short- and long-term support levels the last two trading sessions. Even though cash values seem to have held up generally well through January, concerns about pork demand have led to increased liquidation through the complex. Pork values have continued to erode with losses in all primal cuts except ribs. Pork cutout values fell $1.43 per cwt, moving to $67.27 per cwt, on 343 loads. CME cash lean index for 1/22 is $58.58, up $0.25. DTN Projected lean index for 1/23: $58.50, down $0.08.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Firm pressure is expected to continue to trickle into cash hog values through the end of the week. Most bids are expected steady to 50 cents lower. Slaughter Friday is expected to hit 463,000 head, with a Saturday scheduled run of 212,000 head.

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Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Continued Pressure Develops in Hog Futures

General Comments
Mixed cattle trade is limiting market activity through live cattle futures Thursday morning following overall uncertainty in cash and wholesale beef direction at the end of the week. Hog futures remain firmly lower with widespread follow through losses sweeping through the complex. Corn markets are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 2 1/4 cents lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 87 points lower with Nasdaq up 19 47 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Limited activity is seen through the entire live cattle complex with initial buyer support slowly eroding as the morning continued. This is leaving prices stuck in a narrowly mixed range from 27 cents lower to 20 cents higher. The pressure in nearby contracts is focusing on spillover pressure from hog trade and lack of firm gains in beef and cash cattle market development. While summer and fall contracts are supported by firming feeder cattle trade. Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped and likely will remain that way until sometime Friday. Increased bids are seen in several areas with live bids ranging from $121 to $122 per cwt with dressed bids at $195 to $196 per cwt. Asking prices remain firm at $126 to $127 live and $200 and higher dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $0.66 higher (select) and up $0.66 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 53 total loads reported (16 loads of choice cuts, 9 loads of select cuts, 11 loads of trimmings, 17 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Strong early gains have quickly redeveloped Thursday morning with increased buyer activity seen in all nearby contract months. This is adding even more support to the complex which has been under pressure through most of January, as buyers quickly step back into the complex. March futures are leading the complex higher with a rally of 90 cents per cwt. All nearby feeder cattle contracts are stuck in a narrow range, eliminating significant interest in rolling contracts due to very narrow market premiums.
LEAN HOGS:
Firm losses have continued to develop across all lean hog futures trade with April futures once again leading the market lower, posting additional 90-cent losses at midday. April contracts have now eroded nearly $2.50 per cwt in the last three trading sessions, moving through short term support levels and sparking additional liquidation. The concern that additional pressure is developing and may continue to develop in cash and pork cutout trade is adding more fuel to the fire through the week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.71 at $51.55 per cwt, with the range from $47.00 to $53.00 on 5,611 head reported sold. Cash prices lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.80 at $50.63 per cwt, with the range from $50.25 to $53.00 on 2,070 head reported sold. Pork carcass values are lower on the morning report with prices slipping $0.48 per cwt at $68.22 per cwt with 171 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/21 is $58.33, up 0.26, with a projected two-day index is $58.58, up 0.25.

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