Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Face Further Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders began the week with optimism as the overall fundamental picture of the market is bullish if things remain as they are. The drought in much of cattle country is a concern and may limit or eliminate any rebuilding of the beef herd. Only 29% of the nation's pastures are rated good to excellent, which is the worst rating over the past 10 years. However, this could pressure prices in the near term if liquidation increases. More cattle would come to the market, leaving packers less aggressive in the cash market. There have been various reports of the spread of the New World screwworm (NWS). There was a report of a case within 25 miles of the Texas border. Texas House Representative Don McLaughlin reported in a news release on Monday that he had received reports that NWS is just one mile from the border. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday, with choice up $1.36 and select down $0.09.

Hog futures broke through support, triggering further liquidation and likely moving fund traders into the net-short position. Even though both cash and cutouts were higher, technical selling had the upper hand. Deferred contracts moved to the lowest level since early December. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.63. Pork cutout values increased by $0.30. That may not be sufficient to stem the selling tide. Packers are expected to be aggressive today, as purchases on Monday were rather light.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The U.S. border will remain closed to Mexican cattle imports indefinitely due to the New World screwworm.	1)	If the New World screwworm is found in the U.S., significant selling could take place in cattle futures.
2)	Live cattle futures hold a substantial discount to cash that may be reduced if cash cattle hold at least steady this week.	2)	Cattle futures may be developing a sideways trading pattern with greater downside risk than upside potential.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and could trigger short covering at any time.	3)	There is no strong level of technical support in hog futures, with further liquidation possible. The path of least resistance is down.
4)	There are indications of improving demand for pork as consumers try to stretch their food dollar. Pork may be used more for grilling this summer.	4)	Hog runs are not shortening as anticipated. Packers continue to have an abundant supply of market-ready hogs available to them.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Mildly Higher While Hogs Continue to Scale Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed, with the lean hog contracts still needing greater support, but the cattle contracts were able to close mildly higher. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Kansas. July corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 46.42 points and the NASDAQ is up 114.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following last Friday's weaker close, the live cattle contracts were able to close mildly higher as traders felt as though they weren't up against immediate resistance pressure. June live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $249.00, August live cattle closed $1.55 higher at $240.60 and October live cattle closed $1.90 higher at $232.32. More than anything at this point, traders need/want to see greater fundamental support, and if the contracts are to trade higher late in the week, it will be vital that fundamental support arises in the form of stronger cash cattle trade and strong beef demand. If that support doesn't surface, it's likely that the contracts will continue to trade mixed or fall lower. It is also worth noting that over the weekend there was another case of New World screwworm found just 31 miles away from the U.S./Mexico border in sheep. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Kansas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 104,000 head -- incomparable to last week but 10,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $256 to $257, which is $4.00 to $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $405 to $408, which is $2.00 to $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.36 ($392.83) and select down $0.09 ($383.09) with a movement of 79 loads (51.10 loads of choice, 8.76 loads of select, 7.71 loads of trim and 11.90 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers were able to buy cattle cheaper last week, it's likely that they'll try to keep with that trend again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the help and encouragement of the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle contracts were also able to end the day on a higher note. August feeder cattle closed $3.12 higher at $351.55, September feeders closed $3.32 higher at $348.67 and October feeders closed $3.27 higher at $345.30. And again, this week it's most likely that the feeder cattle contracts will mimic the direction and behavior of the live cattle contracts, only trading higher when the live cattle contracts do. At the Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, at their mid-session point and when compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers were trading $5.00 to $10.00 lower, except the heavy five weights were trading $3.00 higher. Feeder heifers were selling $5.00 to $25.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 5/29/2026: down $6.26, $367.14.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts ended the day lower as not enough support has surfaced in the market to justify trading the contracts higher just yet. June lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $95.02, July lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $99.85 and August lean hogs closed $0.75 lower at $97.60. Late last week, consumer support improved, and it's positive to see mild support again in Monday's market. Hopefully, the trend continues, and the contracts can finally find the support they need to trade higher confidently. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.63 with a weighted average price of $93.86 on 2,093 head. Pork cutouts totaled 342.81 loads with 310.12 loads of pork cuts and 32.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.30, $99.75. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- incomparable to last week but 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/28/2026: up $0.48, $91.40.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers may show the cash market a tick more support on Tuesday as consumer demand has shown some slight improvement in recent days.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Inch Higher, While Hogs Remain Hesitant

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour as the cattle futures inch higher but the lean hog contracts are still stuck trading lower. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Kansas. July corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 194.35 points and NASDAQ is up 89.21 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mildly higher into Monday's noon hour as traders are pleased to at least see midday boxed beef prices higher. More than anything, traders need to see continued fundamental support if they're going to successfully move the contracts higher this week. June live cattle are up $0.45 at $248.70, August live cattle are up $0.82 at $239.87 and October live cattle are up $1.20 at $231.62. The spot August contract is still trading below its 40-day moving average, which will remain a difficult threshold for traders to move past without sufficient fundamental support. It is also worth noting that over the weekend there was another case of New World screwworm found just 31 miles away from the U.S./Mexico border in sheep. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Kansas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $256 to $257, which is $4.00 to $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $405 to $408, which is $2.00 to $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.63 ($394.10) and select up $0.66 ($383.84) with a movement of 34 loads (20.55 loads of choice, 3.81 loads of select, 4.10 loads of trim and 5.25 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, the feeder cattle contracts have also jumped higher -- pleased to take any support the market can attract at this point. August live cattle are up $2.65 at $350.97, September feeders are up $2.50 at $347.85 and October feeders are up $2.22 at $344.25. As long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher, the feeder cattle contracts will likely follow in the same direction.

LEAN HOGS:

One would hope traders would look at the continued support of consumers -- as the midday pork cutout value is higher -- and begin to show the lean hog contracts some support. But that isn't how the market is trading this morning as most of the lean hog contracts are lower heading into Monday's noon hour. June lean hogs are down $0.67 at $95.17, July lean hogs are up $0.57 at $100.05 and August lean hogs are down $0.52 at $97.82. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/29/2026 is down $0.04 at $91.36 and the actual index for 5/28/2026 is up $0.48 at $91.40. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.01 with a weighted average price of $93.83, ranging from $87.00 to $95.00 on 380 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.17. Pork cutouts total 222.25 loads with 194.92 loads of pork cuts and 27.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.24, $100.69.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Increased Trading Limits for Cattle Take Effect

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures closed lower for the week as market sentiment seems to have changed. Futures have struggled to sustain price strength on some days. Boxed beef prices have shown more sustained weakness since the holiday. Boxed beef prices were lower on Friday, with choice down $0.85 and select down $2.40. Cash cattle traded lower, with Southern live cattle averaging $3.00 lower and Northern dressed cattle $5.00 lower. Packers were not aggressive with cash nor were they aggressive in volume last seek. Either demand is slowing noticeably or packers are pulling back due to their margins being significantly in the red. Some new cases of the New World screwworm (NWS) have been found about 55 miles from the U.S. border, which will continue to keep the border closed for cattle imports. Increased daily trading limits will take effect today. The daily limit for cattle will be $8.50 with an expanded limit of $12.75. Feeder cattle will have a daily limit of $10.25 with expanded limits of $16.00. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their long live cattle position by 7,205 to a net long of 120,542. Funds were net sellers of 7,856 futures contracts in feeder cattle, reducing their net long to 10,963.

Hog futures eliminated the gains realized during the week, with contracts falling back to the lows. Packers were not aggressive last week, with a light cash trade on Friday. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report declined $0.41. They may need to step up more aggressively this week and may begin buying early. Pork cutout values were higher, but that had little impact on the market. Futures declined to and closed at or near support. This could generate short-term buying interest as traders attempt to buy off of technical support to make a quick profit this week. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders liquidating 21,378 long futures contracts. They are holding a net-long position of 1,432 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures hold a significant discount to cash. This will not be sustained with futures potentially increasing.	1)	Increasing daily price limits may cause an increase in liquidation as margins will increase and speculators will have more risk.
2)	August feeder cattle have a chart gap above the market that will be filled at some point.	2)	Boxed beef prices show signs of weakness as demand may be slowing.
3)	Hogs moved back to support on Friday. Traders may buy in anticipation of a short-term trade to take a quick profit from the market.	3)	If hog futures are unable to find support at the current level, further liquidation could unfold.
4)	Packers may be aggressive to begin the week, as buying was light last week. They may need to step up more aggressively.	4)	Fund traders are nearly net short in the hog market, where it has not been for some time. The sentiment of bearish.