Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Hog Futures Remain Fundamentally Weak

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Some light cash cattle trade took place on Wednesday in the South at $264, but this may not be sufficient to indicate the price for the rest of the week. However, packers seem less aggressive due to the holiday weekend and may not pay higher prices for cattle. Boxed beef prices fell, with select down $2.13 and choice down $2.45. Traders are looking ahead to the Cattle on Feed report on Friday and may position themselves ahead of it. The estimates for the report are on feed at 101.4% of a year ago, placements at 103.0% and marketings at 90.5%. Feeder cattle futures closed higher on Wednesday. It is unusual to see a divergence between live and feeder cattle futures, with the strength more technical in nature. May feeder cattle go off the board today, with August taking over as the lead month.

The June and August hog contracts did not hold support. The rest of the contracts pushed lower but closed above support. The nature of the trading action does not bode well for the market, with further weakness possible into the holiday weekend. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report was down $1.11 on moderate activity. Pork cutout values declined $1.41. Hog slaughter remains strong, but packers have plenty of hogs to choose from. The weekly average hog weights increased to 291.3 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Beef demand should hold moving into the summer months, and the grilling season gets underway.	1)	Live cattle futures have been unable to move above resistance. This may continue to be a selling point.
2)	Live cattle futures hold a discount to cash and may narrow that gap with futures moving higher.	2)	Cash cattle may trade lower this week as packers may be less aggressive due to the holiday.
3)	Most hog contracts held support after first moving below it. Traders did not want to push the market further.	3)	Weekly hog weights increased by 0.5 pounds last week to average 291.3 pounds. This is 3.4 pounds above what it was a year ago.
4)	Hog slaughter remains strong, indicating good demand. If supplies tighten in the country, prices should rise.	4)	The June and August hog contracts have not held support. The other contracts may follow suit.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Weaker Trends Keep with the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had a lousy day where essentially not enough fundamental support developed, so the contracts simply ended the day weaker. Some light cash cattle trade was noted in the North, but not enough cattle traded to say that any sort of trend has been established for the week. July corn is down 9 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 645.47 points and the NASDAQ is up 399.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The livestock complex had a lousy day where essentially not enough fundamental support developed, so the contracts simply ended the day weaker. Some light cash cattle trade was noted in the North, but not enough cattle traded to say that any sort of trend has been established for the week. July corn is down 9 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 645.47 points and the NASDAQ is up 399.65 points.

FEEDER CATTLE:

As strange as it may seem, the feeder cattle complex was able to round out the day higher, even though the live cattle complex closed lower. The real test will come on Thursday when the market is challenged to either continue with its bullish front or be pressured to tuck its tail and retreat. Personally, with feeder cattle demand mixed at best right now in the countryside and with the live cattle contracts trading lower, I'm led to believe that the market's resistance pressure will be victorious in that fight. August feeders closed $2.12 higher at $365.77, September feeders closed $1.62 higher at $362.62 and October feeders closed $1.22 higher at $362.62. At the Producers Livestock Auction in Salina, Utah, compared to last week, feeder steers sold unevenly steady. Slaughter cows traded steady to $3.00 higher, while slaughter bulls weren't well tested. The CME feeder cattle index 5/19/2026: up $2.98, $372.44.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day lower as once again the market is simply disgusted with the lack of support it's currently seeing. Without enough support from either the cash market or consumer demand, the market has no other suitable option but to trade lower for the time being. June lean hogs closed $0.65 lower at $97.27, July lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $101.97 and August lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $101.82. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.11 with a weighted average price of $93.76 on 2,539 head. Pork cutouts totaled 271.49 loads with 230.84 loads of pork cuts and 40.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.41, $95.47. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/18/2026: up $0.05, $90.55.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have shown that they don't intend to do much in the cash market this week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Minimal Fundamental Support Has Contracts Trading Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are trading lower into Wednesday's noon hour. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and asking prices remain elusive too. July corn is down 10 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 481.37 points and NASDAQ is up 285.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With boxed beef prices mixed, no developments in the fed cash cattle market, and the futures up against resistance levels, the live cattle contracts are back to trading lower. June live cattle are down $2.57 at $251.97, August live cattle are down $4.10 at $243.10 and October live cattle are down $4.80 at $234.50. Bids and asking prices still remain unknown in the cash market; at this point it's looking like the week's trade could be delayed until the bitter end as everyone awaits to see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report could unveil. But with placements anticipated to be higher than a year ago, there's a level of hesitancy laced throughout the marketplace.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.54 ($394.21) and select up $1.28 ($394.86) with a movement of 73 loads (48.80 loads of choice, 5.84 loads of select, 10.18 loads of trim and 8.05 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower as the market continues to closely follow the lead of the live cattle contracts. August feeders are down $4.50 at $359.15, September feeders are down $4.67 at $356.32 and October feeders are down $4.57 at $353.07. Unless the live cattle market changes its direction, the feeder cattle contracts will likely keep with their lower trend.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to slide lower as the market is simply displeased with the lack of support. Without stronger consumer demand and with very minimal interest from packers in the cash market, the market simply doesn't have the support it needs to find stability. June lean hogs are down $0.67 at $97.25, July lean hogs are down $0.55 at $101.60 and August lean hogs are down $0.95 at $101.15. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/19/2026 is up $0.44 at $91.00 and the actual index for 5/18/2026 is up $0.05 at $90.55. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.73 with a weighted average price of $93.62, ranging from $88.00 to $95.00 on 2,204 head and a five-day rolling average of $93.10. Pork cutouts total 170.14 loads with 135.76 loads of pork cuts and 34.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.70, $96.18.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Struggle With Technical Resistance

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures were somewhat reluctant to increase, but the strength of feeder cattle pulled them higher. June live cattle futures hold a discount to cash, which may not be maintained for very long. Cash is expected to be steady this week, which may result in higher trade to narrow the gap. However, there may be some apprehension due to the Cattle on Feed report being released on Friday. Boxed beef prices showed strong gains, with choice up $3.61 and select up $3.35. Retail demand remains strong as consumers prefer beef and are willing to pay for it. The May feeder cattle contract goes off the board on Thursday, with August then taking over as the lead month.

Hog futures continue to struggle with the June contract falling below support on Tuesday. This may open the way for further follow-through selling. Fundamental support remains elusive, leaving the market in a bearish mode. There was good movement on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, with the price down $0.01. Pork cutouts did not fare well, with values down $1.48. Bellies fell $5.24, and loins declined $3.69. However, the ribs jumped $5.25, helping to offset some of the weakness. There is little expectation for cash prices to show much strength ahead of the three-day weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	China's reopening for U.S. beef imports is bullish for retail beef prices, if there is interest in or enough beef available for export.	1)	Traders may liquidate some of their long positions ahead of the Cattle on Feed report and the three-day weekend.
2)	Wildfires that were ignited in Kansas last week have burned more than 115,000 acres. The dryness and wildfires will further impact cattle supplies.	2)	Live cattle futures may struggle to move to new contract highs, as higher prices could trigger profit-taking and increased selling interest.
3)	The July and later hog contracts are still above support. Buying interest may increase at these low levels.	3)	Bullish fundamental support remains elusive. There are ample supplies of pork to meet increased demand.
4)	Retail interest should pick up as high-priced beef may be replaced somewhat by pork on the grill this summer.	4)	Packers are not expected to be aggressive with hog purchases the rest of this week due to the upcoming extended weekend.