Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Weaker Tones Follow Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all it was a quiet, mundane day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed lower. More than anything traders want to see what's going to become of this week's fed cash cattle trade before they will likely support the cattle contracts any further. Do note that on Friday the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 11.89 points and the NASDAQ is down 694.00 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders grew tired of being the main force behind the cattle complex's bullish surge and opted to let the contracts close mildly lower through Thursday's end. It's not that traders don't believe the complex should be trading at these levels, but rather instead that they want to see the market's fundamental prevail this week before the advance the contracts any further. October live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $229.75, December live cattle closed steady at $231.12 and February live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $233.45. Again today no cash cattle trade developed, but packers did offer up bids at $228 in Kansas -- but those sat idle as feedlot managers continue to wait the week out -- hoping to trade cattle even higher on Friday. Asking prices are noted at $232 in the South and at $360 in Nebraska. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 103,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 17,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.12 ($369.47) and select down $4.93 ($350.41) with a movement of 123 loads (77.71 loads of choice, 23.15 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 21.65 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlot managers are willing to take the gamble and bet that prices will be higher on Friday, I personally believe that they fully intend on advancing the market whether that be by $1 higher or $5.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And in keeping in perfect alignment with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts closed lower too. October feeder cattle closed $1.72 lower at $346.10, November feeder cattle closed $1.90 lower at $346.92 and January feeder cattle closed $1.82 lower at $344. Do remember that on Friday (tomorrow) the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released -- and it's anticipated to be bullish with placements likely lower than a year ago. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico compared to last week and at their midpoint session, steers calves weighing 300 to 500 pounds were traded $3.00 to $13.00 higher, and steer calves weighing 500 to 600 pounds were trading $15.00 to $17.00 lower. Heifer calves weighing 300 to 350 pounds and those weighing 400 to 450 pounds were trading $5 to $12 higher, while those weighing 450 to 600 pounds were trading $10 to $15 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 38%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/21/2026: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

And while yes, both midday and closing pork cutout values were higher, that wasn't enough support to mean much to traders given how weak demand has been over the last month. December lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $65.55, February lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $67.42 and April lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $72.45. And until demand is stable and strong, a sideways chop will likely be the market's theme. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.22 with a weighted average price of $66.48 on 907 head. Pork cutouts totaled 300.43 loads with 268.83 loads of pork cuts and 31.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.73, $75.23. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 497,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 21,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/20/2026: down $0.20, $72.82.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point packers have secured the majority of their needs already for the week. 

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Wait for Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into midday Thursday, as traders are patiently trying to wait, hoping that fundamental support will arise sometime soon. Asking prices are now noted in the Nebraska at $360 and in the South at $232. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28.64 points and the NASDAQ is down 590.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After rallying all week, the live cattle complex is now trading merely sideways, hoping and praying that fundamental support will soon arise. It's widely believed that on Friday, the month's Cattle on Feed report will likely be bullish, and that fed cash cattle prices will trade steady to somewhat higher as well. But just as in any race, the final mile can seem like the longest stretch when you're waiting. October live cattle are down $0.05 at $230.37, December live cattle are down $0.02 at $231.10 and February live cattle are down $0.40 at $233.50. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and currently no bids are on the table either. Asking prices are noted in the South at $232, and in Nebraska at $360.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.00 ($370.59) and select down $0.65 ($354.69) with a movement of 65 loads (42.63 loads of choice, 10.39 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.55 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And in keeping with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower into midday Thursday. October feeders are down $1.47 at $346.35, November feeders are down $2.00 at $346.82 and January feeders are down $2.30 at $343.52. And until the live cattle contracts trade higher again, it's unlikely that the feeder cattle contracts will change their direction.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading lower, as although midday pork cutout values are higher, traders aren't going to be convinced to trade the complex higher until they see more consistent support. December lean hogs are steady at $65.72, February lean hogs are down $0.27 at $67.65 and April lean hogs are down $0.35 at $72.35. The projected lean hog index for 10/21/2026 is down $0.67 at $72.15 and the actual index for 10/20/2026 is down $0.20 at $72.82. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.53 with a weighted average price of $66.48, ranging from $65.00 to $70.00 on 667 head and a five-day rolling average of $67.52. Pork cutouts total 192.33 loads with 178.92 loads of pork cuts and 13.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.85, $76.35.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally and Hogs Decline

GENERAL COMMENTS:

From a technical perspective, cattle futures have a lot of room to climb now that they've secured their movement above the 200-day moving average. Corn weakness helped early in the trade Wednesday and when it rebounded slightly, cattle futures pulled back a bit from their highs. Cash market for fats is expected to be quiet all week. A lot of cattle sold at the end of last week, and with the Cattle on Feed report coming, many buyers are hesitant to take on a big position. Traders however are bullish with lower on-feed numbers expected and lower placements.

The weekly average hog weights were released Wednesday. The national average carcass weight increased week over week by 0.6 pounds to 218.3 pounds while the live weights dropped 1.6 pounds to 286.2 pounds. Carcass weights increase year over year by 1.8 pounds while live weights drop 0.5 pounds. For pork cutout values, it was a tough day for pork, falling $4.03. With the holidays approaching, the market should be looking for opportunities to start stocking up on their needs.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report is expected to have lower on feed as well as placements Friday.	1)	Beef cutout values have been choppy lately, making the market question consumer demand.
2)	Technicals continue to be positive for both live cattle and feeder cattle futures.	2)	Lack of cash trade shows packers are comfortable waiting to cover needs after high slaughter numbers in the last two weeks.
3)	Holidays are approaching, so demand usually picks up for pork in the last quarter of the year.	3)	Pork bellies and picnic cuts had some of the biggest drops in cutout values, despite being some of the usual biggest demand products for pork.
4)	The market is appearing oversold for lean hog futures.	4)	Trend is not the producer's friend when all signs show a steady long-term trend lower.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Continue to Rally Upon Reignited Bullishness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again ended the day mixed with cattle continuing to rally while the hog complex ended the day softer. No cash cattle trade has developed at this point. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 360.21 points and the NASDAQ is up 278.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day higher, continuing to be fueled by the market's strong fundamental support and by the announcement that came late Tuesday night as U.S. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollings made an announcement regarding the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Livestock Mandatory Reporting for cash cattle. The goal is to bring more transparency to the marketplace, given that the market is no longer seeing prices being reported in the South due to a decline in the negotiated cash cattle trade. Hopefully more details of the agenda surface shortly. October live cattle closed $0.97 higher at $230.42, December live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $231.12 and February live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $233.82. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and it's most likely that trade will be delayed until after Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Asking prices are noted in the South at $232, but remain unestablished still in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head, steady compared to a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.71 ($372.59) and select down $6.20 ($355.34) with a movement of 91 loads (63.27 loads of choice, 9.71 loads of select, 5.68 loads of trim and 12.80 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given the bullish tone that's taken over the cattle complex this week, it's likely that prices will trade higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With more than enough support floating throughout the cattle complex -- live cattle contracts trading higher, Friday's Cattle on Feed report assumed to be bullish, and announcements being made from Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins that more transparency needs to be seen within the fed cash cattle market -- the feeder cattle contracts couldn't help but to trade higher. October feeders closed $1.92 higher at $347.82, November feeders closed $2.52 higher at $348.82 and January feeders closed $3.20 higher at $345.82. At Producers Livestock Auction in Salina, Utah, compared to last week, feeder steers sold unevenly steady with feeder heifers trading $16.00 to $23.00 higher, while the 400 to 500 pound heifers sold sharply higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $4.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded steady to $3.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 30%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/20/2026: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

Although cash hog prices closed higher, that's not enough support to offset the lower trend in pork demand. December lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $65.72, February lean hogs closed $1.25 lower at $67.92 and April lean hogs closed $1.15 lower at $72.70. Until pork demand improves, this sideways/lower trend will likely continue in the hog sector. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.76 with a weighted average price of $67.70 on 4,529 head. Pork cutouts totaled 320.53 loads with 283.56 loads of pork cuts and 36.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.03, $74.50. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/19/2026: down $0.38, $73.02.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that pork demand is soft this week, cash prices won't likely be higher.