Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Inventory Increased 1% from year ago levels

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures eroded through most of the Friday trading session with cattle and lean hog futures spending most of the session under pressure. Late day buying support ahead of the cattle on feed report release helped to stimulate additional near term buying in live cattle futures, but the rest of the complex remained unphased at the end of the week. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on Sept. 1, 2026. The inventory was 1% above Sept. 1, 2025, USDA NASS reported Sept. 18. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.84 with a weighted average of $81.76 on 663 hogs. December corn closed down 3 at $5.275 and December soybean meal closed down $12.70 at $358.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 95.40 at 51,682.64.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures closed mixed Sept. 18 ith traders focusing on the afternoon cattle on feed report that was released following market closed. The fact that the report was not out until after market trade ended for the week, now pushes any reaction to the report to Monday morning trade. This typically can bring about both market anticipation and market calmness heading into the Monday market. But generally, the report was not significantly different from pre-report estimates and what most analysts had projected, and likely market prices have priced into all cattle trade. With cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United

States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on Sept. 1, 2026. The inventory was 1% above Sept. 1, 2025, and placements in feedlots during August 1.62 million head, 9% below 2025, the focus on placements and marketings being the lowest August total since the series began in 1996, is creating some additional concerns. Total cattle marketed during August totaled 1.52 million head, 3% below 2025. Being the lowest on record for August may create some additional longstanding concern through the beef industry, well beyond overall supply levels.

No new trade has been noted thus far Friday, but bids have been renewed in Nebraska at $222 and $350. More trade will likely develop during late afternoon or early evening Friday. So far this week, Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $350, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and there has not been any Southern trade yet. October live cattle closed $0.28 higher at $215.925, December live cattle closed $0.38 higher at $216.625 and February live cattle closed $0.08 higher at $217.35. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 8,000 head, 98,000 head less than a week ago and 83,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.21 ($371.94) and select up $1.38 ($353.26) with a movement of 86.13 loads (61.73 loads of choice, 4.49 loads of select, 8.18 loads of trim and 11.73 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady, Trade activity early next week is expected to remain muted, as both sides return to the drawing board following the cattle on feed report and this week's cash activity which should wrap up late Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures led the market lower Friday. Cattle on feed reports came in neutral to slightly bullish in the post market release posted placements in August of 1.62 million head, 9% below 2025, NASS reported. Net placements were 1.57 million head. Placements were the lowest for August since the series began in 1996. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 240,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 355,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 387,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 230,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 85,000 head. Early pre-report estimates were looking for a 3% reduction in placements. This is the lowest August placements since reporting began in 1996. But with lackluster marketing levels in August, and growing overall cattle inventory, the impact on price support next week is still under significant uncertainty. September feeders closed $1.25 lower at $333.575, October feeders closed $0.88 lower at $323.50 and November feeders closed $0.65 lower at $318.00. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for September 16: down $0.67, $342.50.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures continue to remain generally unsupported through late week trade. With buyer support generally unavailable, allowing prices to slowly erode lower focusing on fundamental short-term demand seen in the market. October lean hog futures were the least impacted Friday, while the rest of the complex fell nearly $1 per cwt through late week trade. The combined softness in surrounding markets added to the general market apathy that developed across lean hog futures.

All nearby lean hog futures are trading well below the 40 day moving average price level, which is adding technical pressure to the already soft market structure. October lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $78.1, December lean hogs closed $1.05 lower at $68.55 and February lean hogs closed $0.98 lower at $70.15. Friday's hog slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 227.51 loads with 212.94 loads of pork cuts and 14.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.56 at $86.98. The CME Lean Hog Index for September 16: down $0.79, $85.02.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Market erosion is expected to continue to limit packer interest at higher price levels early next week

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Markets Soften

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures have remained generally quiet early Friday morning, with increased focus on the afternoon release of the cattle on feed report. Although limited additional cash market activity is expected to be seen until late afternoon, the early movement of steady price levels from last week's levels may set the overall trend of the market for the week. Hog markets remain under light pressure, but little additional fundamental news has developed during late-week trade. December corn is down 2 3/4 at $5.278 and December soybean meal is down $14.10 at $357.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 222.87 at 51,555.17.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures bounced higher in initial early trade. Although the expected increase in cattle on feed numbers likely to be seen in the afternoon release of the cattle on feed report seems to be essentially worked through current price levels. But trade has slowed through the morning, allowing prices to falter in most nearby contracts. This is following the general trend of light to moderate losses over the last few days. In cash cattle trade, following Thursday's light trade where dressed cattle sold at mostly $350 (steady with last week's weighted average), the cash cattle market remains quiet at Friday's start. No bids are currently on the table, and it's likely that trade could be delayed until after today's Cattle on Feed report is released and fully assessed. October live cattle are $0.05 lower at $215.60, December live cattle are $0.25 lower at $216 and February live cattle are $0.43 lower at $216.85. 

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.82 ($371.33) and select up $1.82 ($353.70), with a movement of 64.70 loads (50.09 loads of choice, 3.43 loads of select, 3.36 loads of trim and 7.82 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have shown the most significant pressure through livestock trade Friday morning. Although the expectation is that overall placements will be reduced from year-ago levels, the concern about continued marketing levels and overall demand seems to be limiting feeder cattle markets during Friday morning trade. Although limited support initially developed Friday, this momentum was short-lived and gave way to moderate to firm pressure at midday. Although, to be fair, very little new fundamental or technical information seems to be available at this point.

September feeders are $1.23 lower at $333.60, October feeders are $1.05 lower at $323.325 and November feeders are $0.83 lower at $317.825.

LEAN HOGS :

Lean hog futures are holding moderate losses with light pressure seen in front-month October contracts, although deferred contracts are holding losses near $1 per cwt at midday. The lack of new information through the market during late-week trade and traders seemingly focused more on cattle and grain trade through the end of the week has allowed hog futures to shift lower due more to lack of interest than any other factor. October lean hogs are $0.35 lower at $78.55, December lean hogs are $0.58 lower at $69.025 and February lean hogs are $0.78 lower at $70.35. Hog Prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork Cutouts totaled 157.75 loads, with 148.20 loads of pork cuts and 9.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.59 at $86.65.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders May Adjust Positions Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The proverbial rug was pulled from under the cattle the past two days. Futures closed at the lowest level in two weeks. Last week's strong cash prices and Thursday's initial trade at steady cash are not providing continued support. Light trade took place for Northern dressed cattle at steady money with last week. However, the greater concern is that boxed beef prices are not performing well. Choice boxed beef fell $3.66 and select declined $2.69 on Thursday. Could it be that consumers are concerned about the tariff-free beef that is to be imported over 90 days that beef demand is being affected? The Cattle on Feed report will be released at 2 pm. Central Time today. Estimates are for cattle on feed on September 1st at 101.89% of a year ago, with a range of estimates of 101.4% to 102.3%. Placements in August are at 96.8%, with a range of estimates of 93.9% to 98.4%. Cattle marketed is estimated at 96.1% with a range of 95.3% to 96.4%.

Hog futures continue to struggle. The positive aspect of Thursday is that they did not make new contract lows in the December contract. However, that cannot be said about the rest of the complex, as contracts made new lows. Support remains elusive as the path of least resistance has been down. Pork cutouts did find support on Thursday, posting a gain of $1.19, but that is a small consolation in the current bearish market. There was no price change reported on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report due to confidentiality, as only 45 head were traded. Short covering is likely into the weekend; short-term traders do not like to carry many exposed positions through the weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report is expected to show lower placements than a year ago. The herd is not rebuilding.	1)	Short-term demand from retail outlets may be impacted by some consumers reducing ground beef purchases due to the tariff-free imports allowed into the country.
2)	If cash trade is steady this week, futures should find support as the price discount will be reduced.	2)	The number of cattle on feed is expected to be higher than a year ago, according to today's report.
3)	Hog futures may see strength as short-covering may take place ahead of the weekend.	3)	New contract lows on Thursday maintain the bearish mood of the market. Buyers see little to provide support.
4)	The packers may be more aggressive in the cash market due to very few hogs sold on Thursdays and the possibility that they need to finish purchases for the week.	4)	The path of least resistance is down and may take a monumental effort and better fundamentals to turn the market higher.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Sink Sharply Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts plummeted lower through Thursday's end as the market remains unable to gain strong footing. Some light cash cattle trade was noted in the North at $350 which is steady with last week's weighted average. Do note that on Friday the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. December corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 316.14 points and NASDAQ is up 439.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thursday ended up being an utter and sheer disappointment for the live cattle complex as the contracts sank $3.00 lower before closing, and the momentum that was expected to push the fed cash cattle market higher quickly dissipated. October live cattle closed $2.80 lower at $215.65, December live cattle closed $3.95 lower at $216.25 and February live cattle closed $3.62 lower at $217.27. Today's close did push the spot December contract back below its 40-day moving average. Throughout the day trade at $350 was noted in the North, but otherwise the cash market was rather uneventful. Dressed trade at $350 is steady with last week's weighted average, and most of the cattle traded today were marked for delivery for the weeks of September 21st or September 28th. Bids of $220 were offered throughout the day in the South, but no Southern live deals were noted. More than anything the board's sharp deterioration on Thursday kept the cash market from trading higher, and whenever it's a Cattle on Feed report week, the cash market typically sees some more cautiousness than normal ahead of the reports unveiling. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.66 ($372.15) and select down $2.69 ($351.88) with a movement of 101 loads (68.32 loads of choice, 9.17 loads of select, 3.80 loads of trim and 19.74 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that there's already been some trade at steady prices, that will likely be the market's trend this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And to be expected, with the sharp decline in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts also fell lower through Thursday's close. September feeders closed $3.65 lower at $334.82, October feeders closed $5.27 lower at $324.37 and November feeders closed $4.45 lower at $318.65. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 750 to 975 pounds sold $3.00 higher to $3.00 lower. Steers weighing 400 pounds to 750 pounds sold lower on lighter receipts. Feeder heifers weighing 800 to 925 pounds traded steady, Heifers weighing 400 to 800 pounds sold $6.00 to $8.00 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls traded $2.00 to $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 87%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/16/2026: up $0.43, $343.17.

LEAN HOGS:

Although pork cutout values were supportive through the day's end, traders didn't pay the slight uptick in fundamental support much attention as demand was weak earlier this week. October lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $78.90, December lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $69.60 and February lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $71.12. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 45 head traded throughout the day and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.70. Pork cutouts totaled 277.97 loads with 253.44 loads of pork cuts and 24.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.19, $87.54. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 19,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/16/2026: down $0.79, $86.60.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that demand has mostly been soft this week, it's highly unlikely that packers will show the market much attention on Friday.