Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Stronger Cash Cattle Sales are Developin

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is once again mixed heading into Friday's noon hour as the cattle contracts continue to rally but the lean hog contracts are tumbling lower. Some higher cash cattle trade is currently developing in the South and bids are on the table again in the North. July corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 391.87 points and NASDAQ is down 714.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thursday we saw the cattle contracts react bullishly to the announcement that a case of New World screwworm has been confirmed in Texas for the first time in the last 60 years. Friday the bullishness continues as even the fed cash cattle market is trading higher. Some light trade is noted in Kansas at $257 to $258, which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the bulk of this week's trade and steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few bids are on the table in the North, but at this point no new dressed sales have been reported. So far this week Northern cattle have traded at mostly $405, which is steady with last week's weighted average. June live cattle are up $1.42 at $250.60, August live cattle are up $0.82 at $242.32 and October live cattle are up $1.60 at $235.45.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.51 ($393.17) and select up $3.82 ($386.86) with a movement of 56 loads (39.53 loads of choice, 6.12 loads of select, 4.03 loads of trim and 6.23 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also continuing to trade higher as it pushes a modest rally into Friday's noon hour. August feeder cattle are up $1.37 at $354.65, September feeders are up $1.17 at $351.25 and October feeders are up $1.07 at $347.72. As long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher, the market will likely keep with its upward trend given that enough support is available in the complex right now.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle complex is seeing an influx of support, the lean hog contracts have crashed lower again as traders have all but pulled their support from the sector. You can't point to a lack of fundamental support this week as cash prices and consumer support have both been stronger. June lean hogs are down $1.15 at $94.15, July lean hogs are down $2.70 at $98.90 and August lean hogs are down $1.90 at $97.37. The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.46 with a weighted average price of $94.18, ranging from $87.00 to $97.00 on 1,095 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.71. Pork cutouts total 214.99 loads with 189.54 loads of pork cuts and 25.45 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.52, $101.65.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty Will Dominate Trading Activity

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an incredible day in the cattle complex as futures opened lower in reaction to the confirmation of the New World screwworm being discovered in Texas. That quickly reversed until feeder cattle futures moved to limit up for the final hour of trading. It did not take long for the market to utilize the expanded trading limits implemented on Monday. Feeder cattle closing limit up results in expanded trading limits today. Feeder cattle futures have a limit of $16.00, and live cattle have a limit of $12.75. I doubt the market will utilize the expanded limits, but anything is possible. There may be follow-through buying as traders were unable to liquidate short positions once feeder cattle futures were locked limit up. It was a classic sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact scenario. Cash cattle trade showed the bulk of activity at steady cash with last week. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $3.20 and select down $1.39.

Hog futures closed lower, not receiving any benefit from the volatility in cattle. At one time, there had been a closer correlation, as spillover trading activity would impact the market. That has not been the case for some time, as the markets are operating on their own fundamentals. Packers were aggressive on Thursday as the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.30. Packers have likely purchased sufficient volume for the week, and cash will be lower today. Pork cutout values declined $0.38.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The U.S border will remain closed indefinitely to the importation of cattle from Mexico.	1)	The volatility in cattle is not for the faint of heart. This may reduce market participation.
2)	The August feeder cattle contract has a chart gap remaining above the market. Follow-through buying may close the gap.	2)	Even though cattle futures had an impressive day on Thursday, the market remains in a downtrend.
3)	Stronger cash hogs on Thursday may underpin the market, giving traders confidence to increase their long positions.	3)	Hog futures were unable to uncover follow-through buying interest, as fundamentals do not provide consistent positive signals.
4)	Hog futures rejected the lows on Thursday, possibly indicating the market may have found a bottom. Demand is improving.	4)	Packers continue to find sufficient market-ready hogs without having to be very aggressive in the cash market.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts Soar Higher After New World Screwworm Found in Texas

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed as the cattle contracts charged higher following the New World screwworm announcement, but the lean hog contracts fell lower. Some light cash cattle trade developed in the South at mostly $256. July corn is down 7 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 874.86 points and the NASDAQ is down 23.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Who would have ever thought that the day after the first case of New World screwworm was detected in the U.S. for the first time in 60 years, that would drive the feeder cattle contracts to close limit high? I think it caught everyone off guard Thursday morning when the market opened, and both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts began to trade higher following the news that broke late Wednesday evening. But in the digitalized world that we live in, and the large control that algorithmic trading has over the marketplace, the market has truly become an anticipatory market where rumors and headlines drive trading decisions, and the facts are merely an afterthought.

And this isn't the first time the market has experienced this type of "sell the rumor, buy the fact" type of behavior, as just last month, ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, the market sank sharply lower in anticipation of higher placements. But when traders later had the report and were given the opportunity to trade its findings, traders pushed the complex higher and merely glanced at it as if it was already old news.

Let today's behavior in the marketplace be a lesson for us all -- in the fast-paced world that we live in, the market doesn't sit around to verify facts. It trades headlines, rumors and anything in between, and sometimes it elects to sort out the fine details as an afterthought.

June live cattle closed $2.55 higher at $249.17, August live cattle closed $3.67 higher at $241.52 and October live cattle closed $4.80 higher at $233.80. Some light cash cattle trade developed throughout the day in the South at $256 to $256.50, which is $0.50 to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. And with the movement that developed on Wednesday in the North, it's looking like the bulk of this week's cash cattle is done with. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.20 ($392.66) and select down $1.39 ($383.04) with a movement of 128 loads (101.79 loads of choice, 7.01 loads of select, 6.41 loads of trim and 12.42 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that the bulk of the week's trade is done with, any more trade that does develop will likely hold steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And if you thought the live cattle contracts' upward swing following the New World screwworm announcement was crazy, that's nothing compared to what the feeder cattle contracts did. By Thursday's close, the feeder cattle contracts ran mostly $10.75 higher, meaning that by the day's close, most of the contracts had hit their daily trading limit. It's tough telling exactly why the contracts ran sharply higher: is it because the border will likely remain closed for the distant future? Or is it because traders were buying following the sell-off that the market had endured earlier? Regardless of the rhyme or reason, cattlemen were pleased to see the rally. August feeder cattle closed $10.75 higher at $353.37, September feeders closed $10.75 higher at $350.07 and October feeders closed $10.75 higher at $346.65. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers weighing 800 to 975 pounds traded $4.00 to $8.00 higher, with load lots trading as much as $15.00 higher. There weren't enough steers offered under 800 pounds for an accurate test. Slaughter cows and bulls traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 95%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/3/2026: down $4.93, $359.21.

LEAN HOGS:

With all the market's excitement moving to the cattle complex, the lean hog contracts closed lower. June lean hogs closed $0.75 lower at $95.30, July lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $101.60 and August lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $99.27. It didn't help matters, however, that pork cutouts softened as the day ended. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.30 with a weighted average price of $95.66 on 2,625 head. Pork cutouts totaled 222.73 loads with 189.87 loads of pork cuts and 32.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $98.13. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/2/2026: up $0.60, $92.25.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Friday, but with slaughter speeds being faster, they may have to.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Confirmation of New World Screwworm in US Drives Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Upon hearing confirmation that the first U.S. case of New World screwworm has been found in Texas, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading sharply higher. A thin movement of cash cattle has developed in the South Thursday morning at $256 but no new business has developed in the North. July corn is down 7 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $8.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 923.19 points and NASDAQ is down 28.39 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Who would have ever thought after hearing about the first positive case of New World screwworm being detected in the U.S. -- the first time in 60 years -- that the cattle complex would trade substantially higher? I think this turn of events really needs to be a reflection point as to how the cattle complex operates, trades and digests information.

It appears in today's environment where digitalized/algorithmic trading has taken over much of the marketplace, the futures complex trades more so on headlines/rumors before knowing the actual facts. We've now seen this play out as clear as day with the NWS situation. It seems although traders pressured the market lower ahead of the actual finding, they now merely feel relieved that a confirmed case has been identified. And in last month's Cattle on Feed report where trades pushed the market sharply lower ahead of the report, assuming that placements would be sharply higher, but then when the data confirmed that, they pushed the market back higher. So let us all make a mental note of this trend and really understand that the futures complex is an anticipatory market that trades on any rumor or on any headline -- it doesn't sit around and wait for the facts. Or as the old saying goes, sell the rumor, buy the fact.

June live cattle are up $2.60 at $249.22, August live cattle are up $3.55 at $241.40 and October live cattle are up $4.47 at $233.35. A light trade is developing in parts of the South at $256, which is steady with Wednesday's trade but $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. No new trade has developed in the North following Wednesday's light business.

A note about New World screwworm: Last night, USDA confirmed a case of New World screwworm (NWS) was found in the umbilical area of a three-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas. The under secretary for marketing and regulatory programs at USDA said, "USDA invested heavily in the tools needed to eliminate NWS ever since cases started increasing in Central America and Mexico. The United States has defeated this pest before, and we will do it again." USDA also said they will continue to work with state departments of agriculture, animal health officials, industry, and producers to mitigate economic impacts of restrictions as much as possible, limiting them to defined geographic areas. NWS does not infest meat, fruits, vegetables or other food sources -- the U.S. food supply is safe.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.97 ($393.89) and select down $1.95 ($382.48) with a movement of 76 loads (59.81 loads of choice, 5.49 loads of select, 3.19 loads of trim and 7.39 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts shoot higher, the feeder cattle contracts have wasted no time in doing so as well as most of the contracts are currently trading more than $9.00 higher. Aside from wanting to remain in alignment with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market may also be trading higher as the finding of NWS in the U.S. likely means the border will remain closed for the distant future. August feeders are up $9.87 at $352.50, September feeders are up $9.92 at $349.25 and October feeders are up $9.57 at $345.47.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though midday pork cutout values are higher, the lean hog complex's momentum seemed to stall out as the cattle contracts rocket-launched higher. June lean hogs are down $0.70 at $95.35, July lean hogs are down $0.57 at $101.42 and August lean hogs are down $0.27 at $99.30. At this point, Thursday's movement simply appears to be a combination of pullback from the market's resistance and a decrease of trader support as the market's immediate attention sits with the cattle contracts.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/3/2026 is up $0.26 at $92.51 and the actual index for 6/2/2026 is up $0.60 at $92.25. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.27 at $95.64, ranging from $92.00 to $96.00 on 1,415 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.48. Pork cutouts total 115.02 loads with 101.15 loads of pork cuts and 13.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.84, $101.35.