Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Chop Sideways While Hogs Venture Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are trading sideways, but the lean hog contracts are mostly lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and won't likely until Thursday or Friday. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 248.92 points and NASDAQ is up 10.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

In trying to wait patiently for the week's fundamentals to shine through the marketplace, the futures complex is mixed as traders simply aren't willing to advance the market at this point without first seeing fundamental reassurance develop. February live cattle are up $0.42 at $239.87, April live cattle are down $0.02 at $238.17 and June live cattle are up $0.25 at $234.57. It's quite likely the market could enter a sideways trading range until it sees what the fed cash cattle market is going to accomplish this week. Traders don't want to pressure the market's resistance from a technical standpoint, but at the same time they believe in the market's long-term, bullish fundamental outlook, which is why a sideways trend is most likely to be the theme throughout the remainder of the day and until cash cattle begin to trade.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared a fruitful outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was increased by 185 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase, cow slaughter is expected to increase, and carcass weights are obviously higher. I personally question what leads them to believe fed cattle and cow slaughter speeds are going to increase -- as the entire industry knows supplies are historically thin, and that's not expected to change in 2026, and potentially not in 2027 either. But as always, time will tell. The quarterly steer price projections were bullish as every single quarter for 2026 was increased from January's estimates. Steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $238 (up $6.00 from last month), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $238 (up $4.00 from last month), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $240 (up $3.00 from last month) and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $245 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 remained steady.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $2.24 ($370.00) and select down $0.82 ($364.53) with a movement of 74 loads (53.35 loads of choice, 4.31 loads of select, 4.17 loads of trim and 11.88 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without a strong presence seen in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour. But what remains interesting about the feeder cattle market's behavior is the deferred contracts aren't concerned about what the live cattle contracts are doing and instead are trading fully higher, seeming more focused on the market's long-term situation of short supplies. March feeders are down $1.35 at $366.10, April feeders are down $0.37 at $362.82 and May feeders are up $0.55 at $358.32.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again trading lower as the market seems to be anticipating increased supplies that are soon to hit the market. The last quarterly Hogs and Pigs report unveiled more market-ready supplies than what the industry anticipated, and there were plenty of hogs noted in the heavy weight categories which will meet the consumer in the supply chain at any point in time now. But what also remains true is that while the futures complex may be scaling lower, pork demand over the last two weeks has been noticeably stronger, which one may logically assume is because some consumers are electing to purchase pork as opposed to beef as it's a cheaper protein option. February lean hogs are down $0.30 at $86.80, April lean hogs are down $0.87 at $95.85 and June lean hogs are down $0.45 at $109.35.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/9/2026 is down $0.15 at $86.32, and the actual index for 2/6/2026 is down $0.11 at $86.46. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report averaged $84.92, ranging from $84.00 to $88.50 on 1,585 head and a five-day rolling average of $85.65. Pork cutouts totaled 180.09 loads with 158.85 loads of pork cuts and 21.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.57, $96.40.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared a positive outlook for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 60 million pounds as both slaughter speeds and carcass weights are heavier than originally anticipated. The quarterly price projections for hogs were bullish as well as every single quarter saw an increase from January's estimates. Hogs in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 (up $1.00 from last month), hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $73 (up $3.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $75 (up $3.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $63 (up $2.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2026 remained steady, but pork exports increased by 50 million pounds.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty May Limit Volatility

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market had already factored in more beef from Argentina, as the signing of the agreement was only a formality of what had already been proposed. The extra beef that is imported may not have much impact on the beef price anyway. High beef prices are the result of tight cattle supplies, and those supplies will not change much anytime soon. Demand for beef remains strong, and packers do not have an abundance to choose from. Packers were able to purchase some for deferred delivery last week, but not enough to reduce their need for cattle this week. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $1.57 and select up $0.82.

Hog futures were mixed, with the nearby contract retracing on the potential that demand will be better, but prices may not be as strong as shown in the contracts through the first half of the year. Of course, one day of trade does not dictate the overall market attitude. Some impact might have stemmed from the market being overbought and in need of a correction. It is very unusual that there were no negotiated hogs traded on Monday. Many times, we have seen light movement resulting in packers not reporting prices, but the absence of any negotiated trade was a surprise. Packers should be more aggressive today, resulting in higher prices. Pork cutout values increased $2.06 with higher prices in all categories except hams.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Packers did not purchase a large volume of cattle for deferred delivery. This should keep them aggressive this week.	1)	Cattle futures have not been able to push higher to close the chart gaps. This may be unattainable in the near term.
2)	More beef imports from Argentina may be absorbed, likely having little impact on the overall market.	2)	Cattle futures may settle into a sideways trading range for a period.
3)	A price retracement in hogs may be a buying opportunity, as demand seems good and traders are confident enough to buy and hold futures contracts.	3)	Hog futures are overbought and may see a further price correction after the weakness in the nearby contracts on Monday.
4)	Packers are expected to be aggressive today, as they did not purchase hogs on Monday.	4)	Pork demand has been strong, but it may reach a plateau, keeping further upside price potential limited.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Inch Higher While Hogs Close Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed, with the cattle contracts finding some mild support, while the lean hog complex faced some pushback in its nearby contracts. New showlists are higher in Texas and Kansas, but mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 20.20 points and the NASDAQ is up 207.46 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

All in all, it was a quiet, peaceful Monday for the live cattle complex as the contracts closed slightly higher as traders desire for the market to continue to scale higher, but won't want to rival resistance thresholds without first seeing what's going to develop fundamentally this week. February live cattle closed $1.55 higher at $239.30, April live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $238.20 and June live cattle closed $0.47 higher at $234.32. New showlists are higher in Texas and Kansas, but mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $240 to $245, but mostly at $242 to $245, which is $3.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $378, which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 62,602 head. Of that 80% (50,107 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery option, while the remaining 20% (12,495 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.57 ($367.76) and select up $0.82 ($365.35) with a movement of 68 loads (42.18 loads of choice, 9.60 loads of select, 3.88 loads of trim and 11.92 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Supplies of market-ready cattle are thin, which is likely going to push the market higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed higher as well Monday afternoon, as the market felt safe closing slightly higher following last week's descent that pulled the complex away from resistance pressure. March feeders closed $0.02 higher at $367.45, April feeders closed $0.40 higher at $363.20 and May feeders closed $0.65 higher at $357.77. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading mostly steady to $5.00 higher, with the biggest increase seen on steers weighing 700 to 800 pounds. Feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $15.00 higher. Stocker cattle and steer and heifer calves traded anywhere from $15.00 to $25.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 70%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/6/2026: up $0.19, $374.66.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with most of the nearby contracts closing lower while the deferred months were able to maintain a slightly stronger position. February lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $87.10, April lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $96.72 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $109.80. More than anything, the market's technical resistance seemed to bear too much weight for traders to manage today, even though fundamental support remains strong with pork demand pushing pork cutout values higher. Hog prices are not available on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report as there have been no hogs traded yet. The only thing disclosed in the report is that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $86.45. Pork cutouts totaled 321.73 loads with 283.89 loads of pork cuts and 37.83 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.06, $95.83. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 46,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/5/2026: up $0.19, $86.57.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that no hogs traded today, packer interest should be stronger on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Head Into The Noon Hour Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is heading into Monday's noon hour with a mixed tone, as traders desire to push the contracts higher, but need to see more fundamental support before they'll confidently do so. New showlists are higher in Texas, Kansas and mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $6.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.73 points and NASDAQ is up 247.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is taking a mixed approach to Monday's noon hour as the market continues to desire to trade higher -- but traders need to see continued fundamental support and reassurance before they'll likely push the market up to or beyond resistance thresholds. February live cattle are up $1.02 at $238.77, April live cattle are up $0.45 at $237.70 and June live cattle are down $0.17 at $233.67. Thankfully the market seems to be sensibly digesting the news from last Friday where President Trump announced the U.S. would be lowering duties on 80,000 metric tons(mt) of lean beef trimmings from Argentia -- which won't negatively impact our market by any means. It's reassuring to see traders aren't having a dramatic psychological reaction to the headline. New showlists are higher in Texas, Kansas and mostly steady in Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $240 to $245, but mostly at $242 to $245 which is $3.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $378 which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.28 ($369.61) and select up $2.06 ($366.59) with a movement of 23 loads (14.77 loads of choice, 2.95 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.06 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle complex trading mixed with no immediate, fundamental support to excite traders, the feeder cattle complex is also mixed. March feeders are down $0.70 at $366.72, April feeders are down $0.32 at $362.47 and May feeders are up $0.10 at $357.22. Until traders see continued fundamental support, it's likely a sideways trend could be established early this week.

LEAN HOGS:

Upon establishing what seems to be a new top last week in the lean hog complex, the market continues to trade lower as traders question if there's enough support to challenge that new threshold. April lean hogs are down $1.32 at $96.62, June lean hogs are down $1.05 at $109.55 and July lean hogs are down $0.77 at $110.97. Thankfully, pork demand remains red-hot right now and that could lend traders enough fundamental support if prices continue to scale higher later in the week.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/6/2026 is down $0.11 at $86.46, and the actual index for 2/5/2026 is up $0.19 at $86.57. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because no hogs have been traded yet. But we can note that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $86.12. Pork cutouts total 181.81 loads with 161.12 loads of pork cuts and 20.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.52, $96.29.