Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Need Greater Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all Monday came and went and not much materialized throughout Monday's trade for the livestock contracts as traders continue to desire to see greater fundamental support -- but it hasn't risen at this point. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas. December corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 138.37 points and the NASDAQ is down 408.43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day mixed with most of the market's nearby contracts closing higher, while the furthest deferred contracts closed lower. August live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $234.72, October live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $230.62 and December live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $230.40. More than anything traders weren't willing to do much with the live cattle complex throughout the day as traders first want to see what develops fundamentally this week in the cash market. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at $248, which is $7.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $393, which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $7.07 ($375.61) and select down $3.16 ($365.17) with a movement of 122 loads (87.15 loads of choice, 13.51 loads of select, 14.02 loads of trim and 7.60 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers were able to get cattle bought cheaper last week and build up their inventory, it's likely that the market will trade lower again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex wasn't mixed about its position by Monday's close -- the only direction the feeder cattle contracts went was lower throughout Monday's trade. August feeders closed $0.25 lower at $354.35, September feeders closed $0.20 lower at $350.82 and October feeders closed $0.50 lower at $346.85. And with the lower trend seen this afternoon in sale barns, it's likely that the lower trend will continue in the feeder cattle complex in the upcoming days. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers traded $5.00 to $20.00 lower and feeder heifers sold $3.00 to $15.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 7/10/2026: up $2.10, $372.52.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts again fell short of surpassing the market's resistance at the $100 threshold as traders simply refuse to challenge that price point at this time. Luckily pork cutout values did close a tick higher -- which hopefully will remain the theme throughout the remainder of the week and give traders the fundamental support that they're looking for. August lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $98.10, October lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $84.27 and December lean hogs closed $1.17 lower at $75.07. Hog price closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.48 with a weighted average price of $98.78 on 3,085 head. Pork cutouts totaled 235.82 loads with 214.50 loads of pork cuts and 21.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.21, $101.55. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 464,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/9/2026: up $0.34, $92.69.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Prices closed higher Monday afternoon and if packers are still short bought, they could scale even higher on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Inch Higher Thanks to Greater Technical Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures are mixed Monday as the cattle complex has found some mild support, but the lean hog complex hasn't been as fortunate.

New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas. December corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 206.04 points and NASDAQ is down 314.36 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After opening Monday slightly lower, live cattle futures have turned higher, hoping greater support will arise throughout the week. Unfortunately, last week boxed beef prices were mostly lower and fed cash cattle traded lower too, as the dog days of summer are having their effect on the cattle complex. But after plunging lower ten straight days, it's refreshing to see the live cattle contracts higher and hopefully trader support will remain through closing. August live cattle are up $0.57 at $235.77, October live cattle are up $1.27 at $231.82 and December live cattle are up $1.12 at $231.40.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at $248, which is $7.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $393, which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.59 ($380.09) and select down $0.34 ($367.99) with a movement of 68 loads (54.47 loads of choice, 3.70 loads of select, 6.93 loads of trim and 3.13 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing a little extra support in the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading higher into Monday's noon hour. August feeders are up $2.47 at $357.07, September feeders are up $2.12 at $353.15 and October feeders are up $1.75 at $349.10. Demand was mixed last week for feeder cattle, with a lot of sale barns noting that haying time has pulled some buyers out of the market.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to trade mixed as the nearby contracts have found mild technical support this morning, while the rest of the contracts are trading slightly lower. August lean hogs are up $0.22 at $99.22, October lean hogs are down $0.35 at $84.75 and December lean hogs are down $0.62 at $75.62. Midday pork cutout values are a tick lower, but traders remain hopeful consumer support will be strong again this week and help encourage traders to continue to push the contracts higher. Unfortunately, the market's resistance at $100.00 in the spot August contract remains a brutal threshold for traders to try to maneuver. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/10/2026 is up $0.42 at $93.11 and the actual index for 7/9/2026 is up $0.34 at $92.69. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see only 328 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $96.92. Pork cutouts total 117.07 loads with 107.86 loads of pork cuts and 9.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.51, $100.83.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Struggle to Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures continued to struggle on Friday, pressured by lower cash and the weekend. Cash cattle finished the week with Southern cattle averaging $7.00 lower, with Northern dressed cattle $10.00 lower. With packers being able to purchase sufficient cattle for immediate needs and some for later needs, the prospect for steady or higher cash this week is not very good. Technically, the market is weak, and bullish traders will need to make a collective effort to turn the trend higher again. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $1.87 and select up $4.84. However, this may not be sufficient to turn the trend, as demand has slowed with increased temperatures. This is seasonal and not a surprise. Feeder cattle prices are lower as buyers follow the live cattle market and are paying less for cattle. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their net-long live cattle position by 4,532 futures contracts to 114,908. Fund traders were net sellers of 1,041 long feeder cattle futures, reducing their long positions to 14,566.

Hog futures closed mixed ahead of the weekend, as traders remain cautious about whether fundamentals will support stronger prices this week. Both cash and cutouts were higher on Friday and may provide support for the market today. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.25 on moderate volume at the end of the week. Pork cutout values were higher, posting a gain of $2.53. The higher slaughter pace continues, indicating good demand. However, it has not resulted in consistent buying interest in hog futures. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders as net sellers of 1,979 contracts, increasing their short positions to 40,390 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	August live cattle futures penetrated support on Friday, but closed above it. This could generate technical buying interest.	1)	Cattle futures made a new low on Friday, keeping the recent downtrend intact.
2)	Reduced cattle supplies will limit price weakness. A market correction may be a buying opportunity.	2)	Cattle futures have fallen below the 100-day moving average, which may keep technical pressure on futures, resulting in further liquidation as stops are triggered.
3)	Pork cutouts moved to $101.34 on Friday, the first time they have been above $100 for a while. Improving demand is being reflected in retail values.	3)	USDA lowered its price estimates for hogs on the WASDE report. Of course, that can change, but it keeps a bearish element in the market.
4)	The strength of cash and cutouts on Friday should provide support today as the market may be turning more bullish.	4)	Packers may not be aggressive to begin the week, which may limit buying interest in hog futures.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Rounds Out Week Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended Friday mostly lower as traders simply didn't find the support they needed this week. The cash cattle market saw a few more sales develop throughout the day, but largely the week's trade was done on Thursday. December corn is up 9 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 173.20 points and NASDAQ is up 78.11 points.

From Friday-to-Friday the livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle down $4.02, October live cattle down $3.75; August feeder cattle down $6.02, September feeder cattle down $7.45; July lean hogs up $0.93, August lean hogs up $0.25; July corn up $0.13, September corn up $0.17.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another disappointing day for the live cattle complex as the market continued its downward break. The market simply doesn't have enough support to justify trading the complex in any other direction at this point in time. August live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $235.20, October live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $230.55 and December live cattle closed $1.27 lower at $230.27. It is worth noting that today's close is the fourth consecutive close below the market's 100-day moving average in the spot August contract. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $248, which is $7.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average; Northern dressed cattle traded at $393, which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 99,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 3,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be zero head of cattle. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 529,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 42,000 head less than a year ago.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as the decrease in steer and heifer slaughter has more than offset the increase in cow slaughter. Quarterly fed steer price projections for 2026 were mostly supportive as steer prices in the third quarter are now anticipated to average $255 (up $3.00 from last month's report), steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $255 (unchanged from last month), steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $250 (unchanged from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $255. Beef imports for 2026 decreased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 also decreased by 10 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.87 ($382.68) and select up $4.84 ($368.33) with a movement of 90 loads (64.22 loads of choice, 9.92 loads of select, 5.49 loads of trim and 10.73 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers are slowly building supply and getting the market pushed lower, it's likely they'll be able to keep with that trend in the upcoming weeks.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another lower day for the feeder cattle complex as the market continues to closely mirror the direction of the live cattle complex; it didn't help that buyer demand softened late in the week too. August feeders closed $1.55 lower at $354.60, September feeders closed $1.97 lower at $351.02 and October feeders closed $1.97 lower at $347.35. The Weekly Oklahoma Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 lower and feeder heifers sold unevenly steady. Steer calves sold $7.00 to $12.00 lower, but heifer calves over 500 pounds traded $10.00 to $13.00 lower and those under 500 pounds sold steady. The auction report did note that with recent rains in the area there weren't as many buyers in the barns this week as they're busy putting up hay. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 7/9/2026: down $4.03, $370.42.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex kept with its recent trend through Friday's close as the spot and nearby contracts managed to close higher, but by and large the rest of the complex ended the day softer. July lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $94.77, August lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $99.00 and October lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $85.07. The market's resistance at $100 in the spot August contract remains a stiff barrier traders simply aren't willing to face at this time. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.25 with a weighted average price of $98.30 on 3,664 head. Pork cutouts totaled 309.89 loads with 284.70 loads of pork cuts and 25.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.53, $101.34. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 452,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 28,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 23,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/8/2026: up $0.37, $92.35.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the pork and hog markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 40 million pounds as slaughter speeds in the second half of the year are anticipated. Quarterly price projections for 2026 were decreased as hogs in the third quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $69 (down $2.00 from last month's report), hogs in the fourth quarter are anticipated to average $58 (down $4.00 from last month), hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month) and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by 25 million pounds and pork exports for 2026 were decreased by 15 million pounds.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were extremely active in this week's cash hog market and how next week's trade pans out will likely be determined on whether or not they secured enough inventory this week