Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle May Trade Early

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures followed through on Friday's weakness. The reaction might have come from the weakness in boxed beef on Friday or that Southern live cattle traded $1.00 lower last week. There is also the possibility that the market is tired, and without continued new bullish news, a period of liquidation might take place. However, fundamentals remain supportive, and a retracement may be short-lived. Today is the last day for the June live cattle contract, with August taking over as the lead month and carrying a substantial discount to the expiring June contract. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $0.41 and select up $2.60.

Hog futures were under pressure from the start, but found buying interest at the lows, resulting in the July and August contracts posting gains while later contracts closed lower, but well off their lows. Trader buying interest surfaced as contracts bounced from support. The indication is that cash may have been stronger, as quite a few hogs traded on the negotiated market. However, prices were not released due to packer submission issues. Packers are expected to be aggressive again today as they intend to purchase hogs earlier rather than later due to the upcoming holiday weekend. Pork cutout values increased $2.29 from the previous day, which may provide support to the market today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The August live cattle contract takes over as the lead month later today and is carrying a substantial discount to the June contract. This discount may be reduced.	1)	The cattle market has been unable to revisit and move to new highs. Price resistance may be building with little new bullish news.
2)	Lower fuel prices with crude oil trading down to pre-war levels leave more disposable income for consumers, which may keep beef consumption strong.	2)	Early indications are that cash cattle may trade lower this week, resulting in further liquidation of futures.
3)	Hog futures held support and rebounded, providing the indication the market may have found a bottom.	3)	Hog futures remain sideways, and a break below the lows could trigger further selling pressure.
4)	Packers were aggressive with purchases on Monday and may be that way again today. This may provide further support to futures.	4)	The hog market lacks solid support, which may leave the market floundering in a sideways pattern.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lower Tones Kept With the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lackadaisical Monday for the livestock complex, with little trader interest trickling into the sector. New showlists appear to be higher in Kansas, slightly lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Texas. July corn is down 10 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 306.63 points and the NASDAQ is up 522.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day lower as trader support never developed for the market. This week's trade could likely be rather uneventful as traders may already be checked out for the long Fourth of July holiday weekend. August live cattle closed $2.25 lower at $243.57, October live cattle closed $1.82 lower at $237.37 and December live cattle closed $1.55 lower at $236.95. New showlists appear to be higher in Kansas, slightly lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $408 to $410, which is $1.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $258, which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.41 ($391.44) and select up $2.60 ($374.18) with a movement of 74 loads (44.56 loads of choice, 12.75 loads of select, 7.73 loads of trim and 9.10 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. It's tough telling what this week's trade will amount to, as it will really all depend on how short bought packers are. If they feel comfortable with their inventory, then prices will likely be softer, but if they're still in need of more cattle, prices could be higher as they don't want to forgo being able to market beef to retailers when demand is high.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And in keeping with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts ended the day lower, too. August feeders closed $2.37 lower at $367.47, September feeders closed $1.92 lower at $365.75 and October feeders closed $1.67 lower at $362.92. Most feeder cattle sales have been canceled this week for the Fourth of July holiday. The CME feeder cattle index 6/26/2026: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with a couple of the nearby contracts ending the day higher while the rest of the deferred contracts ended the day lower. July lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $93.82, August lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $97.27 and October lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $81.52. Today's action seems to be a flip-flop of the moves made last week, as the deferred contracts were stronger following Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, but today, traders simply weren't willing to advance the nearby contracts with pork cutout values weaker at the day's end. Hog prices were not available on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that 5,703 head traded throughout the day and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $96.59. Pork cutouts totaled 247.29 loads with 211.72 loads of pork cuts and 35.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.29, $97.66. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 29,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/25/2026: down $0.23, $91.55.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers will likely be more aggressive earlier this week as opposed to later in the week, prices could be a touch higher on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Lower Trends Dominate the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With it being a holiday-shortened week, and everyone anxiously awaiting the celebration of America's 250th birthday, the livestock complex is trading lower at the week's start, as, frankly, there may not be much trader interest in the complex this week. Consumer demand is strong; however, at the week's start, both boxed beef prices and pork cutout values are higher in today's morning reports. July corn is down 12 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 242.55 points and the NASDAQ is up 342.43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are trading lower into midday Monday as the market simply isn't seeing the level of trader support it needs in order to trade higher. And while yes, midday boxed beef prices may be higher, the market could be short of the technical support it needs this week as traders may not participate as aggressively this week given that it's a big holiday week, and given that the contracts are up against resistance levels. June live cattle are down $0.67 at $256.77, August live cattle are down $2.55 at $243.27 and October live cattle are down $2.65 at $236.55.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $408 to $410, which is $1.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $258, which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.53 ($392.56) and select up $4.71 ($376.29) with a movement of 32 loads (18.48 loads of choice, 5.41 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim and 4.79 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With much ambition or excitement being seen in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are consequently trading lower at the week's start. August feeders are down $2.67 at $367.17, September feeders are down $2.45 at $365.22 and October feeders are down $2.12 at $362.47. And do note that with the markets being closed on Friday for the Fourth of July holiday, trader interest and participation in the complex this week could be minimal.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading lower into Monday's noon hour as traders don't want to get ahead of themselves and be too bullish if fundamental support isn't going to be sizeable. But it is worth noting that the morning's carcass price is higher, but the big push is stemming from the huge rally in the belly, which is up $12.16 this morning. July lean hogs are up $0.17 at $93.10, August lean hogs are up $0.05 at $96.62 and October lean hogs are down $0.97 at $80.97. The projected lean hog index for 6/26/2026 is down $0.14 at $91.41 and the actual index for 6/25/2026 is down $0.23 at $91.55. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 25 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $97.47. Pork cutouts total 143.30 loads with 114.39 loads of pork cuts and 28.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.26, $98.63.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Show Further Short-Covering

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There had been hope that feedlots would again gain the upper hand and hold for higher cash. That was true for Northern dressed cattle as cash was $1.00 higher; however, Southern live cattle traded $1.00 lower. We will know the full impact of cash trade today, as the final number and prices will be released, with more cattle likely trading later in the day on Friday. But it usually does not change as early trade, even if it is light, usually sets the stage for the rest of the trade. Feeder cattle backed away from potentially reaching contract highs. Boxed beef prices took a large hit, with choice down $5.29 and select down $3.16. The May Livestock Slaughter report showed cattle slaughter at 2.184 million head. This is the lowest May slaughter since 1960. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders adding 2,778 long futures positions, increasing the net-long live cattle position to 125,583. There were 2,339 positions added to feeder cattle, bringing the net-long position to 15,695.

Hog futures reacted positively to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report in the deferred contracts. October and later contracts posted triple-digit gains. The July and August contracts held their own, but could not find sufficient support to keep pace. Packers were not aggressive in the cash market, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report declining $1.85 with very light trade. Packers may be aggressive at the start of the week, purchasing early due to the upcoming July 4th weekend. Pork cutout values gained $0.15. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders increasing their net-short position to 33,652 contracts, up 5,012 from the previous week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle market remains bullish, and price declines may remain temporary.	1)	Feeder cattle futures have not been able to revisit and penetrate contract highs. This may be an area of strong technical resistance.
2)	The fund traders continue to add to their long positions as the market remains supported and supplies tight.	2)	The large decline in boxed beef on Friday may put further pressure on the market today.
3)	Hog futures rebounded in response to the Hogs and Pigs report. This could carry over today as further short-covering could take place.	3)	The bounce in hog futures on Friday may be short-lived unless there is greater fundamental support.
4)	Stronger futures prices on Friday could be the catalyst to fuel the correction of the oversold market.	4)	Pork cutout values continue to flounder, being unable to find solid support and trend higher. Pork supplies remain plentiful.