Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Struggle to Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Once one case of the New World screwworm (NWS) was confirmed, more cases have been discovered. Cases are expected to increase now that it has moved into the U.S. It is uncertain what the fundamental impact will be on the market. It does not impact the safety of beef, and it may not impact cattle supplies. If anything, some cattle movement will be limited, and potentially, some impact on herd rebuilding. The result is that ranchers will be more vigilant, increasing the time spent observing their cattle. However, the uncertainty may trigger further liquidation in the futures market as traders may reduce their long positions. Boxed beef prices were lower on Monday, with choice down $0.50 and select down $4.60. Early expectations are for cash to be no better than steady this week.

Hog futures tried to regain some lost ground but fell through and closed below the previous low. Fund traders are net short in the market and seem to feel comfortable increasing their short positions. The July contract has moved to the lowest level since Dec. 2, 2025. Support in the market remains elusive. Packers were aggressive on Monday with cash on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $2.26. That is not expected to have much impact on the market today due to the weakness in pork cutouts. Cutouts were down $2.72. Packers are expected to be aggressive again today as they purchase hogs early in the week rather than later.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The New World screwworm should have little impact on the overall market fundamentals. They should remain bullish.	1)	More cases of the New World screwworm may increase market uncertainty and trigger further liquidation.
2)	Pasture and rangeland conditions increased by 1 percentage point last week to 31 percent good to excellent. There are reports of continued herd reductions.	2)	There could be some negative consumer impact on the market due to misinformation about the New World screwworm, which could lead to reduced beef consumption.
3)	Hog futures seem to be overdone to the downside. The market will run out of aggressive sellers, and a price retracement will unfold.	3)	Hog futures remain in a downtrend. Traders are following the path of least resistance.
4)	There continue to be signs of increasing pork demand. Low prices should cure low prices.	4)	Hog supplies remain sufficient, with packers having little difficulty purchasing the hogs needed for slaughter.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Weaker Tones Follow Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With plenty of reason to be cautious in the marketplace, traders felt as though their safest decision was to trade the contracts lower through Monday's end. New showlists appear to be mixed to higher in Kansas, somewhat lower in Texas, and lower in Nebraska/Colorado. July corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 80.77 points and the NASDAQ is up 220.23 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Throughout the day, the live cattle contracts traded mixed, as at the day's start, the contracts were trading higher, but by the day's end, the market had fallen lower upon not seeing the fundamental support it desperately needed. It is worth mentioning that over the weekend, two additional cases of New World screwworm were detected, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the US to four. June live cattle closed $3.55 lower at $246.52, August live cattle closed $4.92 lower at $236.72 and October live cattle closed $4.77 lower at $229.35. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, somewhat lower in Texas, and lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 102,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $405, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $256 to $258, which is $1.00 lower to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week, 78,391 head traded in the negotiated cash cattle market, of which 67% (52,892 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 33% (25,499 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.38 ($392.32) and select down $4.48 ($378.21) with a movement of 116 loads (77.64 loads of choice, 21.28 loads of select, 4.09 loads of trim and 13.01 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. With packers able to slowly build up more supply around themselves, they'll likely try to keep prices from trading higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And in keeping with the market's recent norm, the feeder cattle contracts also closed lower as the complex continues to closely mirror the action of the live cattle contracts, and as the market's resistance at the 100-day moving average is simply too big a barrier for traders to challenge at this point. August feeders closed $3.20 lower at $350.70, September feeders closed $3.37 lower at $347.45 and October feeders closed $3.45 lower at $343.77. At the Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading steady to $5.00 higher, with instances up to $10.00 higher on the heavier weights. Feeder heifers were trading $2.00 to $8.00 higher. Steer calves were selling $10.00 to $20.00 lower and heifer calves were trading mostly $2.00 to $8.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/5/2026: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a rough day for the lean hog complex, as the spot July contract fell to its lowest position since last December. But with traders uncomfortable without knowing what type of support is going to develop this week, traders found that the path of least resistance was going to be in trading the contracts lower today. July lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $97.37, August lean hogs closed $1.07 lower at $96.15 and October lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $82.35. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, up $2.26 with a weighted average price of $96.11 on 1,638 head. Pork cutouts totaled 289.55 loads with 256.62 loads of pork cuts and 32.93 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.72, $98.46. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/4/2026: up $0.09, $92.60.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. With pork demand up slightly at Monday's close, it wouldn't be surprising to see packers active again in Tuesday's market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Tones Capture Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Weaker tones are seen across the entire livestock complex as Monday's noon hour nears. More than anything, traders need fundamental support to help guide the contracts higher. July corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 21.92 points and NASDAQ is up 333.72 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thus far it's been a back-and-forth day for the live cattle complex as the market initially started Monday stronger, trading higher as yet two new cases of New World screwworm were detected over the weekend, bringing the nation's total number of confirmed cases to four. But as the market nears the noon hour, the complex is trading lower, seemingly less confident in just about everything at this point. June live cattle are down $3.70 at $246.37, August live cattle are down $4.52 at $237.10 and October live cattle are down $3.80 at $230.32. It does seem as though the market's 40-day moving average is going to be a tough resistance point to break through unless strong fundamental support develops.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $405, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $256 to $258, which is $1.00 lower to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.67 ($392.03) and select up $0.99 ($383.68) with a movement of 58 loads (40.47 loads of choice, 11.16 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.26 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Keeping in alignment with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading $3.00 to $4.00 lower into Monday's noon hour. But looking at the feeder cattle contracts, their biggest technical hurdle is going to be the market's 100-day moving average as the spot August contract hasn't traded above that threshold since May 22. August feeder cattle are down $4.37 at $349.52, September feeders are down $4.27 at $346.55 and October feeders are down $4.15 at $343.07.

LEAN HOGS:

With a weaker tone hovering over the entire livestock complex -- coupled with the fact that pork cutout values are lower at the day's start -- the lean hog contracts are once again trading lower. June lean hogs are down $0.20 at $94.10, July lean hogs are down $0.90 at $97.90 and August lean hogs are down $0.32 at $96.90. Until consumer support strengthens, it's likely the contracts will remain skeptical of being overly bullish in this choppy market.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/5/2026 is up $0.03 at $92.63, and the actual index for 6/4/2026 is up $0.09 at $92.60. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $96.01 up $1.83, ranging from $90.00 to $98.50 on 1,068 head and a five-day rolling average of $95.00. Pork cutouts total 154.87 loads with 134.12 loads of pork cuts and 20.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.42, $100.76.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - A Second Case of the New World Screwworm

GENERAL COMMENTS:

One thing that can be said is that cattle futures are resilient. There is little reason for futures to see much pressure based on the fundamentals. It is also possible that the highs have been established, and the market may trade within a range. Cash cattle traded steady last week, likely trimming the early strength of the market on Friday. There has been some anticipation of higher cash. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice up $0.04 and select down $0.35. A second calf was confirmed to have an infection with the New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas, within 6 miles of the first discovery. The screwworm does not pose any threat to the food supply, but does increase the burden on ranchers to increase their vigilance. Even so, consumers' perceptions may have an impact on beef demand. The Commitment of Traders report showed the funds selling 4,435 live cattle futures contracts, reducing their net-long position to 116,107 contracts. They added 336 long futures positions to feeder cattle, increasing their net-long position to 11,299 contracts.

Hog futures were under substantial pressure, posting triple-digit losses through the April contract. The July contract showed the greatest pressure as some of the premium contained in the market was removed. Futures moved back near the lows of earlier in the week. Hopefully, the support will hold, and the market will see strength today in response to the substantial increase in pork cutouts. Cutouts increased $3.05 on Friday due to loins up $7.39, butts up $7.26, picnic up $6.79 and ribs up $4.79. Unfortunately, packers may not be aggressive today following on the heels of lower cash on Friday. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders selling 21,281 contracts, resulting in a net-short position of 19,849 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures were not impacted by the first case of the New World screwworm in the U.S. Traders may not react negatively to the second reported case either.	1)	Consumer perception could be negative to beef consumption, even though the New World screwworm is no threat to the safety of the beef supply.
2)	The New World screwworm poses no threat to the safety of beef for consumption. Demand should remain strong.	2)	Steady cash may again be seen this week, which may keep cattle futures trading in a sideways pattern.
3)	Hogs moved near support from earlier in the week, which may trigger short-covering and renewed buying interest.	3)	If hog futures break below the lows of earlier in the week, further liquidation may unfold.
4)	The strength of pork cutouts and continued strong slaughter indicate demand is strong.	4)	The Commitment of Traders showed funds now holding a net-short position. This may increase further liquidation of those holding long positions.