Friday, August 21, 2026

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look Ahead to the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are trying to find support. Overall, traders remain bullish, but the market needs to show sufficient reason for them to turn aggressive buyers. There may be strength Friday as short-covering may take place ahead of the Cattle on Feed report released this afternoon. The estimates for the report are for on-feed numbers on Aug. 1 at 102.5% of a year ago with a range of 102.3-102.9%. Placements in July at 93.5% with a range of 92.3-95.1%. Marketings in July at 92.6% with a range of 92.2-93.4%. This is the first time in quite a while that the range of estimates for placements has been this narrow. Cash cattle are expected to trade lower Friday as packers remain unaggressive. Boxed beef prices on Thursday were lower, with choice down $5.06 and select down $0.43.

Hog futures continue to struggle as fundamentals provide little support. The October contract fell to support on Thursday as cash and cutouts continue to struggle. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a minor gain of $0.24, but cash is expected to be lower Friday. Pork cutouts declined $1.09. Packers are reducing the slaughter pace compared to a year ago as they attempt to balance supply with demand while maintaining their margins. Futures may increase Friday as traders may cover some short positions ahead of the weekend.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

July placements are expected to be 6.5% below a year ago, which should be supportive to the market.

1)

Lower cash again this week indicates packers have the upper hand and intend to maintain their positive margins.

2)

Lower cash cattle trade has already been factored into the market. Short-covering may take place ahead of the Cattle on Feed report.

2)

Cattle from Mexico will begin to move to the U.S. beginning on Monday. This may maintain a negative posture in the market.

3)

Hog futures are oversold with short-covering possible ahead of the weekend.

3)

Hog futures have been unable to find support this week, leaving traders unwilling to buy futures aggressively.

4)

Lower pork prices should improve demand. Reduced slaughter may be temporary as packers will need to balance the supply with demand.

4)

Cash and cutouts continue to exhibit weakness, and a reflection of slower demand.




Thursday, August 20, 2026

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Continue to Dominate the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again ended the day mixed, as cattle contracts received a little extra support from traders, while lean hog contracts ended the day lower. On Friday, the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. December corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 703.84 points and the NASDAQ is down 263.92 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 9,300 mt for 2026 were down 36% from the previous week and 37% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (1,600 mt), South Korea (1,400 mt) and Taiwan (1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 27,300 mt for 2026 were down 25% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (10,700 mt), South Korea (3,500 mt) and Japan (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Despite the fact that boxed beef prices and fed cash cattle prices both ended the day lower, the futures market received a bone from traders as they were willing to mildly support the contracts through Thursday's end. October live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $218.00, December live cattle closed $1.12 higher at $218.27 and February live cattle closed $1.10 higher at $218.90. Do remember that on Friday the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. The cash cattle market saw bids offered throughout the day in both regions, but the day's movement was light. So far this week, the only strong test has been in the North, where dressed cattle have traded at $355 to $356, which is $9.00 to $10.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and some live sales have been marked in the North at $255 as well. The South has yet to trade cattle, although bids were offered throughout the day in Kansas at $255. But given that packers were able to secure more inventory in recent weeks and with Friday releasing the monthly Cattle on Feed report, this week's trade could be light in volume and slow to develop. It's also worth noting that the majority of the cattle that traded on Wednesday were marked for delivery on the week of September 7. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 103,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 14,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.06 ($389.93) and select down $0.43 ($363.74) with a movement of 110 loads (88.85 loads of choice, 14.17 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.86 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers having ample supply available to them, it's likely that prices will continue to be lower on Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Apart from a couple of the nearby contracts, the feeder cattle complex was also able to end the day mostly higher. September feeders closed $0.20 lower at $328.92, October feeders closed $0.65 higher at $322.70 and November feeders closed $0.80 higher at $314.87. The cautious nature of the feeder cattle complex could be stemming from a number of factors: the fact that on Friday the monthly COF report is set to be released, the fact that on Monday the border reopens to Mexican cattle, or the fact that fed cash cattle prices are trading lower, which dampens the excitement in the feeding sector; all weigh heavily on the market. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week, there wasn't enough supply to accurately test those weighing 650 to 950 pounds. But good demand was seen on steers and heifers weighing under 600 pounds. Slaughter cows and bulls sold $2.00 to $6.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 81%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/19/2026: down $0.51, $341.85.

LEAN HOGS:

And the topsy-turvy nature continues in the lean hog complex as the market ended the day mixed: lower in its nearby contracts but higher in its deferred contracts. More than anything, traders are hopeful that demand will increase in later months but remain uncertain about what to expect for tomorrow, let alone next week. October lean hogs closed $1.27 lower at $80.22, December lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $70.75 and February lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $73.82. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.24 with a weighted average price of $92.34 on 1,306 head. Pork cutouts totaled 256.15 loads, with 222.98 loads of pork cuts and 33.17 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.09 to $96.49. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 451,000 head -- 23,000 head less than a week ago and 20,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/18/2026: down $0.82, to $93.96.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's most likely that packers have secured all they need in the cash market aside from some minor cleanup trade.




Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Let Contracts Chop Sideways

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex continues to chop sideways as traders are desperate for greater fundamental support but aren't seeing it surface in the market consistently. Some bids are on the table currently in the cash market and packer interest will likely improve as the day trades on. December corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 420.28 points and NASDAQ is down 194.36 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 9,300 mt for 2026 were down 36% from the previous week and 37% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (1,600 mt), South Korea (1,400 mt) and Taiwan (1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 27,300 mt for 2026 were down 25% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (10,700 mt), South Korea (3,500 mt) and Japan (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Despite fed cash cattle prices that are thus far trading lower this week and midday boxed beef prices that are lower too, traders are mildly supporting the live cattle contracts into Thursday's noon hour. More than anything this seems to be a sideways chop following Wednesday's weaker close. August live cattle are up $0.97 at $224.40, October live cattle are up $1.60 at $218.82 and December live cattle are up $2.07 at $219.22. Bids are starting to surface again in the fed cash cattle market as currently packers are offering $355 to $356 dressed and $225 live in Nebraska, and $225 live in Kansas. Some moderate trade developed Wednesday at $355 to $356 in Iowa and Nebraska but otherwise the cash market has yet to trade any cattle in the South.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.85 ($392.14) and select down $0.61 ($363.56) with a movement of 51 loads (35.93 loads of choice, 11.05 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 3.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also higher as traders continue to work both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts in the same direction. August feeders are up $0.25 at $337.10, September feeders are up $0.80 at $329.92 and October feeders are up $1.55 at $323.60. Even with the board's slight improvement, it's unlikely buyers will be much more aggressive in the countryside as there are a lot of unweaned calves working their way into the market and they come with high risk.

LEAN HOGS:

The sideways chop is continuing in the lean hog complex as traders frankly aren't confident with what to do with this market. Fundamental support is too wishy washy to count on, so at this point the back and forth of higher one day and lower the next is likely to continue in the hog sector. October lean hogs are down $1.12 at $80.37, December lean hogs are down $0.50 at $70.92 and February lean hogs are down $0.17 at $74.07. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/19/2026 is down $0.24 at $93.72 and the actual index for 8/18/2026 is down $0.82 at $93.96. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.51 with a weighted average price of $92.75, ranging from $91.00 to $96.50 on 1,036 head and a five-day rolling average of $92.90. Pork cutouts total 137.22 loads with 123.97 loads of pork cuts and 13.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.38, $97.96.




Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Weakness Continues to Dominate

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are struggling to find support. Packers have been able to purchase cattle at lower prices over the past few weeks, and it appears they may be able to do so again this week. Some light trade took place on Wednesday at lower prices, with Northern dressed at $355 and Southern live at $225, and were purchased for deferred delivery. Packers have finally seen their margins move into positive territory due to lower cash prices and higher boxed beef prices. Boxed beef prices closed mixed, with choice up $3.84 and select down $2.21. The Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday after the market closes.

Hog futures closed in positive territory, but that provides little consolation that support has been found. The National Daily Direct Afternoon hog report showed a decline of $2.27, with the weighted average price down to $92.10. Packers have been able to purchase hogs without having to be aggressive. This does not bode well for the market and will make it difficult for futures to find support. The volume of hogs purchased on Wednesday was moderate, which may leave them less aggressive Thursday. Pork cutout values declined $1.54, adding to the bearishness.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

Boxed beef prices have increased significantly so far this week and should provide support to the market.

1)

Lower cash cattle trade on Wednesday may have set the stage for lower prices for the week.

2)

The Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday. Traders may not press the market lower ahead of the report, but may cover short positions.

2)

Support will need to hold in cattle futures, or further liquidation may take place.

3)

Hog futures are oversold and may bounce as traders may not be willing to press the market much lower.

3)

Weekly hog weight increased 0.4 pounds to average 282.6 pounds. This is 1.5 pounds higher than a year ago.

4)

Lower pork prices should improve demand as it is less expensive than beef, as consumers are struggling with high food and fuel prices.

4)

Lower pork prices keep packers less aggressive in the cash market.