Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Demand Uncertainty May Foster Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The August, October and December contracts made new lows as liquidation continued. Feeder cattle showed a similar pattern but did not make new lows. Nevertheless, the weakness continued as demand seems to be struggling. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $0.71 and select up $0.02. Hot weather generally slows beef consumption, and this year seems to be no exception. There has been no interest in cash trading activity, with packers expected to hold for lower prices. The New World screwworm seems to be a fact of life in the U.S., with 32 recorded cases so far and only 18 cases remain active. This has not been responsible for the recent weakness seen in the market.

Hog futures have maintained the recent pattern of choppiness with contracts higher one day and lower the next. No price change was recorded in the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, but a weighted-average price of $96.42 was posted. Nearby futures maintain an uptrend while later contracts remain entrenched in a sideways pattern. Pork cutout values were up $1.66, fueled by an $8.65 gain in bellies. Packers have not purchased a large volume of hogs so far, which increases the potential for them to be aggressive in the cash market today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have corrected sufficiently to increase the interest of bullish traders to step back into the market and buy the break.	1)	Cattle futures have declined, but are not oversold. There may be further liquidation.
2)	Hot weather will reduce weight gain and decrease the willingness to move cattle to slaughtering facilities.	2)	Cash is expected to be lower as packer margins remain negative, boxed beef is weaker and cattle futures have declined.
3)	Hog futures are holding support, and further strength in cutouts may increase the interest of traders to establish long-term bullish positions.	3)	Hog futures have been unable to recover from the large decline that has taken place since March. Traders have not seen long-term supportive fundamentals.
4)	Pork cutouts are slowly increasing, indicating demand is holding and slowly improving.	4)	Hog slaughter remains higher than a year ago, but that has not reduced the supply of market-ready hogs. Packers do not need to be aggressive in the cash market.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Continue to Skate Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts ended the day lower as little fundamental support arose throughout the day. The fed cash cattle market also sat idle without any bids or asking prices having developed yet. December corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 130.76 points and the NASDAQ is down 302.47 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Without any wild developments in the market's fundamentals, traders felt as though their safest option was to let the contracts drift lower through the day's end. August live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $238.42, October live cattle closed $0.62 lower at $234.02 and December live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $234.00. No trade has developed yet in the cash cattle market and both bids and asking prices remain elusive, too. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head -- steady with a week ago but 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.71 ($385.77) and select up $0.02 ($365.89) with a movement of 128 loads (81.47 loads of choice, 27.48 loads of select, 10.45 loads of trim and 8.33 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/Lower. Given that packers were able to push the market lower last week and given the fact that they secured some much-needed inventory last week, it's likely that this week's market will trade steady at best.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts followed the live cattle market's direction and also ended the day lower. August feeders closed $0.15 higher at $360.65, September feeders closed $0.47 lower at $357.40 and October feeders closed $1.02 lower at $353.77. The market is currently hovering above its 100-day and 40-day moving averages in the spot August contract. This will remain an important threshold to continue to monitor, because if the contracts dip below that threshold, it could be difficult to pull back above that level. At the Kingsville Livestock Auction in Kingsville, Missouri, compared to last week, steers sold steady to firm, but heifers sold steady to $10.00 higher, with the biggest gains seen on those weighing 550 to 625 pounds. Slaughter cows traded steady to $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 74%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/3/2026: down $1.52, $371.11.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also ended the day lower as traders weren't willing to put their necks out on the line without better support from the market's fundamentals. July lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $93.45, August lean hogs closed $1.60 lower at $96.92 and October lean hogs closed $0.92 lower at $81.65. Until fundamental support improves, it's unlikely the contracts will trade much higher as traders are cautious and aware of the market's resistance at the $100 mark in the spot August contract. Hog prices averaged $96.42 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, ranging from $94.75 to $98.00 on 7,482 head. Pork cutouts totaled 341.18 loads with 304.83 loads of pork cuts and 36.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.66, $97.91. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 13,000 head more than a week ago and 12,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/2/2026: down $0.12, $91.55.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that packers were quite active in Tuesday's cash market, they may not have to be as aggressive on Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lower Tones Stick With the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another day of lower prices for the livestock complex as the market needs to see greater fundamental support before it will likely trade higher again. Still no trade has surfaced in the cash cattle market. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 161.53 points and the NASDAQ is down 180.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although midday boxed beef prices are higher, the live cattle contracts are still trading lower as traders need more than a little fundamental support to help turn this market around. But with the cash cattle market anticipated to trade steady at best, a steady to somewhat lower trend will likely continue to be the theme of this week's trade for the live cattle contracts. August live cattle are down $1.15 at $237.95, October live cattle are down $1.07 at $233.57 and December live cattle are down $0.90 at $233.57. No action has developed yet in the cash cattle market.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.30 ($387.78) and select up $4.49 ($370.36) with a movement of 69 loads (41.11 loads of choice, 13.21 loads of select, 10.16 loads of trim and 4.65 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And although feeder cattle demand was strong Monday afternoon in the countryside, traders simply aren't willing to push the feeder cattle contracts higher while the live cattle contracts are scaling lower. August feeders are up $0.27 at $360.77, September feeders are down $0.45 at $357.42 and October feeders are down $1.17 at $353.62. Regardless of what happens in the countryside this afternoon, it's likely that the contracts will continue to follow the direction of the live cattle market.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are also trading lower this morning as the market is fearing the resistance at the market's $100 market in the spot August contract. And while it would be easy and logical to point to the slight uptick in pork demand, traders need more reassurance than that if they're going to challenge a threshold that the market hasn't successfully traded over in over a month. July lean hogs are down $0.22 at $93.12, August lean hogs are down $1.92 at $96.60 and October lean hogs are down $1.15 at $81.42.

The projected lean hog index for 7/6/2026 is up $0.11 at $91.66 and the actual index for 7/2/2026 is down $0.12 at $91.55. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that 1,477 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $96.96. Pork cutouts total 205.05 loads with 182.39 loads of pork cuts and 22.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.74, $97.99.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Find Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle were able to post minor gains on Monday except for the August contract. Another day of lower highs and lower lows gives the impression that some liquidation is taking place. The market seems to have run out of steady bullish information, which is needed for consistent support at these lofty levels. Cash weakness is a reality, and further weakness is expected this week. Boxed beef prices have been weakening, with choice down $0.59 and select down $1.56 on Monday. Prices remain at high levels, but the inability to show further gains is increasing the caution of traders. Feeder cattle futures closed lower on Monday with futures declining faster than they increased. Feeder cattle remain in strong demand with premiums being paid in many cases for cattle. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders reducing their long positions by 6,143 contracts to a net long of 119,440. Feeder cattle showed selling of 88 contracts, reducing their net-long position to 15,607.

Hog futures closed higher in the October and later contracts as the market seems to be building further support. Both cash and cutout prices have been holding at levels they were at when futures were higher than they are now. It is reasonable to believe that futures should be higher, but traders have found the confidence to buy into the market for the long term. No price change was reported in the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report Monday due to packer confidentiality, but the expectation is that prices were higher. Pork cutout values increased $0.19. The Commitment of Traders report showed further liquidation by the fund traders. They were net sellers of 4,759 contracts, increasing their short positions to 38,411 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The feedlots will not be anxious to sell cattle at lower prices this week. They would rather hold than sell, as weakness could generate further weakness.	1)	Cattle futures have a head and shoulders pattern that suggests further technical liquidation is possible.
2)	Cattle futures may have retraced sufficiently to increase the buying interest of bullish traders. A price correction is a buying opportunity.	2)	Further weakness is anticipated in cash cattle this week. Demand seems to have slowed as boxed beef prices are trending lower.
3)	Hog futures have been maintaining support over the past two weeks as traders are not willing to press the market lower. This may provide traders with the confidence to establish long-term buy positions.	3)	Hog futures in later contracts have yet to find support and pull away from the sideways trading pattern. If traders become disappointed, further weakness could develop.
4)	Hog futures have yet to retrace some of the losses since mid-May. It seems as if a retracement is underway.	4)	Packers continue to find sufficient market-ready hogs available, leaving them less aggressive in the cash market.