Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Remain Hopeful that Strong Trade Will Develop Again in this Week's Cash Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders remain hopeful that fundamental support will increase later this week which is why they were comfortable letting the cattle contracts close slightly higher. New showlists for the week are steady in Texas, but slightly higher in Kansas and Nebraska. December corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 36.38 points and the NASDAQ is up 290.86 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the hopeful anticipation that fed cash cattle prices will trade at least steady if not a tick higher later this week when trade develops -- traders showed good support and good faith toward the live cattle complex and kept most of the contracts higher through Monday's close. October live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $227.50, December live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $228.02 and February live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $230.92. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and trade will likely be delayed until Friday. New showlists for the week are steady in Texas, but slightly higher in Kansas and Nebraska. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355 which is $10 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $224 which is $4 higher than the previous week's weighted average. The week's total negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 90,762 head. Of that 90% (81,611 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery option, while the remaining 10% (9,151 head) was committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.73 ($371.58) and select up $6.86 ($359.91) with a movement of 104 loads (49.89 loads of choice, 8.63 loads of select, 6.84 loads of trim and 39.08 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given the fact that feedlot managers sit relatively current with their showlists and that beef demand remains strong, there's a chance that prices could hold steady again this week if not trade a tick higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And upon seeing the live cattle contracts keep with their higher trend throughout the day, the feeder cattle complex couldn't bear the idea of not following suit and seeing its contracts trade higher as well. October feeders closed $0.80 higher at $344.42, November feeders closed $2.02 higher at $343.92 and January feeders closed $1.65 higher at $339.92. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week and at their midsession point feeder steers over 800 pounds were traded $4 to $6 higher and steers under 800 pounds were traded steady to $4 lower. Feeder heifers were selling steady to $3 higher, but heifers weighing 600 to 700 pounds were traded $6 to $7 lower. Steer calves were selling $10 to $15 higher but those under 500 pounds weren't well tested. Heifers calves under 500 pounds were trading steady to $5 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index Oct. 16, 2026: down $0.09, $343.45.

LEAN HOGS:

And lo and behold, pork cutout values softened Monday and the contracts did too. December lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $66.35, February lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $68.65 and April lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $73.85. If pork demand doesn't improve, a sideways chop is likely going to remain the trend. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, up $2.51 with a weighted average price of $69.60 on 1,458 head. Pork cutouts totaled 241.71 loads with 224.59 loads of pork cuts and 17.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.16, $79.39. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head -- 10,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index Oct. 15, 2026: down $0.90, $74.19.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Monday's cash trade being light, packers will likely need to be more aggressive on Tuesday. 

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Inch Higher While Hogs Remain Cautious

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Keeping with the trend from late last week, the cattle contracts are trading higher as traders yearn to see the market keep with a higher trend.

New showlists for the week are steady in Texas, but slightly higher in Kansas and Nebraska. December live cattle are down $0.15 at $228.2, November feeder cattle are up $1.73 at $343.625, December lean hogs are down $0.15 at $66.775, December corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 20.06 points and the NASDAQ is up 409.55 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With ample support pouring into the market late last week, the live cattle contracts are gingerly continuing to rally into the new week as traders hope that the same level of fundamental support will be found again this week. October live cattle are up $0.17 at $227.72, December live cattle are down $0.17 at $228.17 and February live cattle are up $0.25 at $231.12. No bids or asking prices have surfaced yet this week and trade will likely be delayed until Friday as there's a Cattle on Feed report set to be released later this week. New showlists for the week are steady in Texas, but slightly higher in Kansas and Nebraska.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $228 which is $5 higher than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355 which is $10 higher than the previous week's weighted average. But at Friday's close last week, the market had only traded a thin volume so checking Monday's official USDA reports to see where the week's weighted averages landed, will be vital.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: Choice down $0.57 ($371.74) and select up $8 ($361.05) with a movement of 38 loads (22.18 loads of choice, 3.59 loads of select, 3.14 loads of trim and 9.36 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And upon seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, the feeder cattle complex has jumped into the new week eager and ready to take the charge as well as its contracts are all trading into Monday's noon hour as well. October feeder cattle are up $1.72 at $345.35, November feeders are up $2.15 at $344.05 and January feeders are up $1.52 at $339.80. So long as support from the live cattle contracts continues, then the feeder cattle contracts will likely be able to maintain their higher trend.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is back to trading mixed following last week's modest rally. More than anything, traders continue to ask themselves: what is demand going to amount to Monday, and this week? That will likely be the market's biggest driving factor throughout the week's trade. December lean hogs are down $0.15 at $66.77, February lean hogs are down $0.22 at $69.00 and April lean hogs are down $0.35 at $74.32. The projected lean hog index for Oct. 16 is down $0.79 at $73.40 and the actual index for Oct. 15 is down $0.90 at $74.19. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.64 with a weighted average price of $71.99, ranging from $62 to $78 on 583 head and a five-day rolling average of $70.68. Pork cutouts total 147.65 loads with 138.16 loads of pork cuts and 9.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: Down $1.35, $79.20. 

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Pork Weakness Expected to Continue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

On Friday, USDA released its Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for October. For cattle, the main changes from September's report all lie in the 2026 data. With the tariff-free quota for lean beef as well as the higher August import data released, USDA believes the market will see a higher import total from September's forecast. On top of that, with the two ports from Mexico open and bringing cattle across the border, there is a higher number of live cattle imports expected as well. With a slow slaughter pace, the forecast for beef production is slightly lower than the September report for both 2026 and 2027.

For the pork or hog outlook, USDA reduced its total pork reduction forecast by 150 million pounds for 2026 and 245 million pounds in 2027. This comes from data released previously in the September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Most of these reductions are based on lower expected farrowings. Overall, while pork production was reduced from September's report, it is still expected to be 27.6 billion pounds, up 0.2% over last year and 27.8 billion pounds for 2027. Exports are forecasted to grow 1.1% from last year and 0.6% year over year for 2027.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feedlot placements remain historically low, reflecting the lack of cattle supplies.	1)	Mexican imports are expected to increase, with more cattle moving across the border quickly.
2)	Cash prices for cattle and feeders remain strong despite futures action.	2)	Some believe the lower placement numbers reflect higher heifer retention, signaling possible herd growth coming.
3)	Farrow to finish hog operations continue to be profitable.	3)	Sluggish growth in demand for pork imported by Mexico will be a strong headwind for lean hogs into next year.
4)	While Mexico's pork imports aren't improving nearly as quickly as years past, it is still growing at a rate of 0.15% in 2026. Mexico accounts for 38% of shipments year-to-date by volume.	4)	Overall, demand for pork is down both domestically and with our foreign customers.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally Thanks to Support from the Cash Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day stronger thanks to some added fundamental support late in the week. At the time of this writing, only a handful of trades developed in the fed cash cattle market, but trade was higher. December corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 175.99 points and the NASDAQ is down 573 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $2.58, December live cattle up $1.30; October feeder cattle down $0.23, November feeder cattle down $0.05; December lean hogs down $0.90, December corn down $0.06.

LIVE CATTLE:

Lo and behold, the trader's belief that the fed cash cattle market would shine through and lend the complex support ended up being true! And although at the time of this writing there's only been a small trade develop the trade that has been reported has been higher indeed. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $228, which is $5 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle have been marked anywhere from $350 to $355, but mostly at $355, which is $10 higher than last week's weighted average. October live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $227.55, December live cattle down $1.10, higher at $228.35 and February live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $230.87. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 102,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 21,000 head. And the week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 553,000 head -- 18,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.67 ($372.31) and select up $0.43 ($353.05) with a movement of 135 loads (103.34 loads of choice, 5.36 loads of select, 15.43 loads of trim and 11.22 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before we can anticipate what next week's trade may do, we need to see what the weighted averages of this week's trade amount to.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the feeder cattle complex didn't rally as aggressively as the live cattle complex did, it was still able to end the day higher. October feeders closed $0.25 higher at $343.62, November feeders closed $0.05 lower at $341.90 and January feeders closed $0.37 higher at $338.27. Ahead of the weekend, it is worth noting that the spot November contract is trading at its highest price point since mid-July. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers traded unevenly steady, but feeder heifers traded $6 to $9 higher. Steer calves over 450 pounds sold unevenly steady, but those under 450 pounds traded $5 to $15 higher. Heifer calves sold $5 to $15 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 61%. The CME feeder cattle index Oct. 15, 2026: up $0.90, $343.54.

LEAN HOGS:

And with the late-week rally in pork demand -- even the lean hog contracts were able to end the day higher. December lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $66.92; February lean hogs closed $0.77 higher at $69.22 and April lean hogs closed $1.25 higher at $74.67. The biggest advancements seen this afternoon on the pork report were the $11.17 rally in the rib and the $7.81 rally in the belly. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $4.61 with a weighted average price of $67.09 on 1,605 head. Pork cutouts totaled 273.44 loads, with 257.69 loads of pork cuts and 15.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.00, $80.55. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week ago and 27,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 110,000 head. The CME lean hog index Oct. 14, 2026: down $0.66, $75.09.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. On most Mondays, packers don't show the market much interest, but given that pork demand is stronger, they may pay the market a tick more interest.