Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Show Short-Covering Ahead of Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures began Thursday without fanfare with a steady to slightly higher open. As the day progressed, so did the buying interest. The gains were not fueled by actual cash cattle trade, but by the anticipation of no worse than steady cash. Feedlots may hold out to obtain higher prices or carry cattle over to next week. The market has taken the news of the New World screwworm in stride and looked to the fundamentals of supply. No new cases have been reported in the past few days, providing confidence that the spread might be minimal. No cash cattle have traded, making today an interesting day. Boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday, with choice down $0.08 and select down $2.46.

Hog Futures finally posted minor gains in the August and later contracts after five consecutive days of losses. This does not mean a bottom has been found. However, traders may liquidate some of their short positions ahead of the weekend due to the market's oversold condition. Neither cash nor cutouts are providing much fundamental support to the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.26. The packers likely have purchased much of what they need and will remain unaggressive Friday. Pork cutout values declined by $1.49. Friday is the final day to trade the June contract with July moving to the lead month.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady to potentially higher cash cattle trade is expected Friday, which should support the market as the June contract carries a discount.	1)	Boxed beef prices have been choppy. This may limit the upside price potential of futures.
2)	So far, no further cases of the New World screwworm have been discovered. Traders are focusing on the fundamentals.	2)	Packers may not need to be aggressive this week as they have already purchased some cattle for deferred delivery. Feedlots may have to sell at a steady to lower price if they need to move cattle.
3)	Hog futures are significantly oversold and the bounce on Thursday could carry through Friday as traders may cover shorts ahead of the weekend.	3)	Weekly pork exports were 40% below the previous week and down 26% from the four-week average.
4)	Hog futures have held support at the November lows. The aggressive selling interest may have run its course.	4)	Market-ready hogs remain plentiful. Packers do not need to be very aggressive in the cash market to obtain the hogs they need.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Helped Drive Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mostly higher as traders were willing to mildly support the contracts through the end of the day. Bids were offered throughout the day in the cash market, but no cattle have traded yet. July corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 929.97 points and the NASDAQ is up 640.16 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a quiet and mixed day for the live cattle complex, as although the contracts were able to rally through the day's end, unfortunately, boxed beef prices closed lower. And given that the market is sitting in the second week of June, at any point in time, the market could begin to soften as retailers are likely close to having their coolers refilled after the holiday rush around Memorial Day. June live cattle closed $1.37 higher at $251.47, August live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $242.67 and October live cattle closed $1.70 higher at $235.40. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but bids were offered. Asking prices in the South are firm around $258, but are still not established in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Thursday's WASDE report shared that beef production for 2026 was decreased by 109 million pounds as both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds have declined. However, it is worth noting that the decline in slaughter is partially offset by heavier carcass weights. The quarterly steer price projections didn't show much of a change from May's report. The only quarter that saw an increase from last month was second quarter steers averaged $255 -- up $2.00 from last month. Steers in the third quarter are expected to average $252 and steers in the third quarter are expected to average $255, both of which are unchanged from a month ago. Beef imports for 2026 were steady at 6,109 million pounds, but beef exports for 2026 fell by 20 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.08 ($393.21) and select down $2.46 ($373.25) with a movement of 110 loads (83.93 loads of choice, 13.53 loads of select, 7.62 loads of trim and 4.67 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers haven't been in a rush to trade cattle, it feels as though feedlot managers may be holding out to push packers into paying more.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle demand has been a tick stronger this week, and with the live cattle contract's higher trend, the feeder cattle contracts were able to end the day higher. August feeders closed $5.27 higher at $359.65, September feeders closed $5.15 higher at $356.52 and October feeders closed $5.07 higher at $352.80. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 800 to 1,000 pounds traded $5.00 to $6.00 lower. Feeder heifers weighing 700 to 900 pounds traded $5.00 higher to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold steady, but slaughter bulls sold cheaper. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 95%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/10/2026: up $2.04, $370.10.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mostly higher, although the nearby contracts did end a tick softer. June lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $92.77, July lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $96.62 and August lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $95.90. Following the steep regression endured earlier in the week, hopefully, the complex is beginning to find some sort of technical bottom. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.26 with a weighted average price of $97.26 on 3,545 head. Pork cutouts totaled 267.86 loads with 248.52 loads of pork cuts and 19.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.49, $94.47. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/9/2026: up $0.16, $92.92.

Thursday's WASDE report shared that pork production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as heavier carcass weights are more than offsetting the slight decline in production. Meanwhile, quarterly hog prices saw a decrease from last month's report as hogs in the second quarter remained steady at $64.50, but hogs in the third quarter are now expected to average $69 (down $2.00), and hogs in the fourth quarter are now expected to average $74 (down $3.00). Pork imports for 2026 grew by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2026 grew by 20 million pounds.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely secured the vast majority of their needs in the cash market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Inch Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are continuing to rally into Thursday's noon hour, but the lean hog complex hasn't found the same support. Bids are on the table in the South, but no cattle have traded yet. July corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 387.35 points and NASDAQ is up 203.30 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are still mildly rallying as traders gingerly push the contracts higher and closer to resistance at the market's 40-day moving average. At this point, traders haven't seemed nervous about getting closer to that resistance threshold, which hopefully means they'll hold this momentum through Thursday's close. June live cattle are up $0.90 at $251.00, August live cattle are up $1.07 at $242.57 and October live cattle are up $1.55 at $235.25. Bids are on the table in three major feeding states, but because the offers are well below asking prices trade could be delayed for a while still. Asking prices are noted at $258 in the South but are not established in the North.

Thursday's WASDE report shared that beef production for 2026 was decreased by 109 million pounds as both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds have declined. However, it is worth nothing that the decline in slaughter is partially offset by heavier carcass weights. The quarterly steer price projections didn't show much of a change from May's report. The only quarter that saw an increase from last month was second quarter steers averaged $255 -- up $2.00 from las month. Steers in the third quarter are expected to average $252 and steers in the third quarter are expected to average $255 -- both of which are unchanged from a month ago. Beef imports for 2026 were steady at 6,109 million pounds, but beef exports for 2026 fell by 20 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.59 ($394.88) and select down $0.41 ($375.30) with a movement of 63 loads (44.09 loads of choice, 8.10 loads of select, 7.39 loads of trim and 3.29 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts scaling higher, the feeder cattle contracts are boldly pushing higher into Thursday's noon hour. August feeders are up $5.30 at $359.67, September feeders are up $4.72 at $356.10 and October feeders are up $4.65 at $352.37. Helping add some additional support to the market is the fact that buyers have been a tick more aggressive this week in the countryside as the board's higher trend seems to have them buying more confidently.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle contracts rally, the lean hog contracts continue to fall as traders aren't confident in the marketplace right now. Yes, midday pork cutout values may be higher, but traders have seen too much choppy trade lately to let that alone hold the market steady. July lean hogs are down $0.27 at $96.57, August lean hogs are up $0.12 at $95.55 and August lean hogs are up $0.15 at $95.57. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/10/2026 is down $0.02 at $92.90 and the actual index for 6/9/2026 is up $0.16 at $92.92. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.25 with a weighted average price of $97.60, ranging from $93.00 to $98.00 on 904 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.67. Pork cutouts total 137.43 loads with 128.47 loads of pork cuts and 8.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.05, $97.01.

Thursday's WASDE report shared that pork production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as heavier carcass weights are more than offsetting the slight decline in production. Meanwhile quarterly hog prices saw a decrease from last month's report as hogs in the second quarter remained steady at $64.50, but hogs in the third quarter are now expected to average $69 (down $2.00) and hogs in the fourth quarter are now expected to average $74 (down $3.00). Pork imports for 2026 grew by 10 million pounds and pork exports for 2026 grew by 20 million pounds. 

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Another Ban on Cattle Movement

GENERAL COMMENTS:

News about the New World screwworm has been a daily occurrence. Canada banned the importation of Texas cattle and now Mexico has joined them. Mexico is halting most livestock imports from the United States, including cattle, pigs, and sheep. There is not much livestock that moves from the U.S. to Mexico, but the ban has been implemented. So far, the market has digested the news of the past week and decided it was not bearish. The bearish aspect would be if beef demand were to decline. Cash cattle have not traded so far this week, as feedlots have not jumped to sell cattle aggressively due to the news. The expectation is for cash to trade steady to higher. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday, with choice up $0.38 and select down $1.23.

Hog futures moved higher as traders may have tried to bottom-pick the market due to it being near support. Early strength ran out of steam with most contracts making new lows, but avoided closing below support. Friday is the last trading day for June hogs, with the price closing near the low last seen Nov. 24, 2025. The downtrend has been brutal since futures topped on March 4. Packers remained aggressive on Wednesday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $0.04. Packers are not expected to be aggressive the rest of the week. Pork cutout values remained unchanged from Tuesday. Weekly hog weights averaged 289.4 pounds. The USDA will release the WASDE report at 11 a.m. CDT Thursday, which will show its estimates for average quarterly prices into next year.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Traders have not turned bearish and liquidated positions due to the New World screwworm being discovered in the U.S.	1)	Packers may not need to be aggressive with cash purchases this week and may not raise their bids. Feedlots may need to lower offers to move cattle.
2)	Feedlots have not panicked and sold cattle this week, but may hold for steady-to-higher cash.	2)	Cattle futures may be developing a sideways pattern for the near term. A return to the highs may be difficult to achieve.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and prices near support may trigger short-covering.	3)	Weekly hog weights are 2.2 pounds higher than a year ago. Increased slaughter provides significantly more pork for consumers.
4)	Weekly hog weights declined one pound from the previous week, averaging 289.4 pounds.	4)	If futures break through and close below the November support, they could make another leg lower.