Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Endures Rough Start to the Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed lower Monday afternoon as traders simply didn't see enough support in the day to move the contracts any other direction. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 239.25 points and the NASDAQ is up 308.27 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a grim day for the live cattle complex as the market seemed fixated on only one thing: volatility. With the announcement made last Friday that the union workers plan to strike next week at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado, the cattle complex had only one real option when it came to trading throughout Monday's hours, and that was lower. April live cattle closed $4.42 lower at $230.15, June live cattle closed $4.05 lower at $227.42 and August live cattle closed $3.67 lower at $225.57. This causes great anxiety for the cattle complex as the market is already seeing minimal throughput from packers as they try to manage their margins. And it also raises the question: How is this going to affect beef consumers? Unfortunately, a level of uneasiness will likely reside within the market until this ordeal is played out; expect continued volatility until then.

New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 103,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at $240, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $380, which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.07 ($391.29) and select up $4.67 ($383.62) with a movement of 48 loads (26.26 loads of choice, 5.45 loads of select, 5.60 loads of trim and 10.38 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With throughput expected to be lower next week, it's likely the cash market will also trade lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts plummet lower, the feeder cattle contracts followed suit as there simply wasn't enough stable support in the market to keep the contracts from doing otherwise. March feeders closed $4.97 lower at $350.65, April feeders closed $5.07 lower at $346.55 and May feeders closed $5.20 lower at $342.87. At the Joplin Regional Stockyard in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers sold $2.00 to $8.00 lower, except four weight steers, which sold $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/6/2026: down $0.93, $366.39.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower Monday afternoon as the market felt the pressure of the external pressures weighing against it throughout the day's trade. It was extremely positive to note the uptick in pork cutout values, but unfortunately, that didn't resonate with traders before the day's end. April lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $94.82, June lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $109.90 and July lean hogs closed $0.72 lower at $111.97. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.26 with a weighted average price of $91.95 on 4,355 head. Pork cutouts totaled 247.46 loads with 217.77 loads of pork cuts and 29.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.05, $101.32. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head, 18,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/5/2026: up $0.19, $90.74.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values up noticeably, there's a strong chance that cash prices could improve on Tuesday. 

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Volatility Hits Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to rough start for the week as all three of the markets are trading lower into Monday's noon hour. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 345.14 points and NASDAQ is up 15.64 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's almost as if the cattle complex thinks cattlemen and traders alike would grow weary if the market simply traded in a lackadaisical mundane fashion as opposed to the rollercoaster ride it turns into at times. Which perfectly describes the market's $3.00 to $4.00 decline Monday morning as news broke late last week that union workers will indeed strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colorado. The strike is expected to happen the week of March 16, and JBS intends to shift production to other facilities during that time. This causes great anxiousness for the cattle complex as the market is already seeing minimal throughput from packers as they try to manage their margins to the best of their ability. It also raises the question: How is this going to affect beef consumers? Unfortunately, a level of uneasiness will likely reside within the market until this ordeal is played out; expect continued volatility until then. April live cattle are down $4.40 at $230.15, June live cattle are down $4.37 at $227.10 and August live cattle are down $3.80 at $225.45. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at $240, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $380, which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.44 ($390.66) and select up $2.28 ($381.23) with a movement of 21 loads (11.41 loads of choice, 2.75 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.13 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As expected, the feeder cattle complex has noted the decline in the live cattle market and consequently elected to send its contracts tumbling $4.00 to $5.00 lower into Monday's noon hour. March feeders are down $4.30 at $351.32, April feeders are down $5.22 at $346.45 and May feeders are down $5.80 at $342.27. Until the live cattle complex settles down and trade in a more stable manner, the feeder cattle contracts will likely continue to scale lower.

LEAN HOGS:

Not even the lean hog complex can trade higher Monday morning as its market is also seeing a slight regression into the noon hour. April lean hogs are down $0.67 at $94.95, June lean hogs are down $1.42 at $99.42 and July lean hogs are down $1.07 at $111.62. For the lean hog complex the market's resistance seems to be inflicting pressure more than anything else.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/6/2026 is up $0.13 at $90.87, and the actual index for 3/5/2026 is up $0.19 at $90.74. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that 2,190 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $91.56. Pork cutouts total 135.42 loads with 114.95 loads of pork cuts and 20.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.80, $102.07.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Market Uncertainty May Maintain Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Selling pressure surfaced on cattle futures on Friday as cash traded lower. Southern cattle declined $4.00, with Northern dressed cattle down $3.00. Packers gained the upper hand by slowing the slaughter pace, with the feedlots finally having to move cattle at lower prices. Liquidation may continue as workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado, gave notice over the weekend of a possible strike on March 16. The union gave the required seven-day notice that it is canceling its contract extension, which will end at 11:59 p.m. Sunday, March 15. This is likely to put further pressure on the cattle markets today. Boxed beef prices closed mixed on Friday, with choice up $0.33 and select down $1.66. The Commitment of Traders report showed that fund traders were net sellers of 4,919 futures contracts, reducing their net-long position to 112,044. They reduced their net-long position in feeder cattle by 693 contracts to 18,941.

Hog futures continue to regain strength in nearby contracts while making new highs in the August and later contracts. Traders remain optimistic amid rising demand, a potentially tighter supply, and higher prices as the year progresses. The substantial increase in crude oil prices may either further increase demand, as consumers turn to pork instead of high-priced beef, or reduce overall demand for red meat. Packers were aggressive on Friday, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $1.95. With their aggressiveness on Friday, it is likely that further gains may be seen today. Pork cutout values declined by $0.95. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders increasing their net-long position by 6,468 futures contracts to 117,601.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle market may have overcorrected to the downside after the decline in cash cattle trade. This may result in a bounce in futures.	1)	Lower cash cattle trade may put further pressure on the market as packers may have been able to purchase cattle for deferred delivery, reducing the need to be aggressive this week.
2)	Cattle supplies remain tight, and the beef herd shows little sign of rebuilding. This will take some time to change.	2)	The strike at the JBS plant may begin on March 16, as the union has given the required notice of the termination of the contract extension.
3)	Deferred hog futures contracts continue to make new highs, keeping the uptrend intact and buyers confident in holding long positions.	3)	The jump in the crude oil price may impact demand for red meat even though pork is less expensive than beef.
4)	Higher cash to close the week may indicate packers are short bought on hogs and may bid aggressively today.	4)	Deferred hog futures contracts have been increasing steadily and may be ripe for a price retracement.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Close Lower While Hogs Maintain Their Stronger Position

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It ended up being a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed lower but the lean hog market kept its upward momentum through the day's end. Southern live cattle traded at $240, which is $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $380, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. May corn is up 7 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $7.90.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 453.19 points and NASDAQ is down 361.31 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $2.35, June live cattle up $2.32; March feeder cattle up $0.20, April feeder cattle up $0.43; April lean hogs down $0.10, June lean hogs up $1.03; March corn up $0.08, May corn up $0.12.

LIVE CATTLE:

Simply put, it was a disappointing day for the live cattle complex. The board closed lower and the fed cash cattle market traded $3.00 to $4.00 weaker. So the bullish energy that's been alive and well through most of 2026 was hard to find at Friday's close. April live cattle closed $3.95 lower at $234.57, June live cattle closed $3.80 lower at $231.47 and August live cattle closed $4.15 lower at $229.25. Throughout the day Northern dressed cattle traded at $380, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at $240, which is $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average. More than anything, the technical pushback the market saw as traders tried to face off against the 40-day moving average was simply too much for traders to bear at this time and consequently had an negative effect on the cash sector as well. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 88,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 20,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around zero head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 521,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 58,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.33 ($387.22) and select down $1.66 ($378.95) with a movement of 65 loads (43.86 loads of choice, 5.48 loads of select, 6.57 loads of trim and 9.41 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers able to secure inventory at cheaper prices two weeks in a row, there's a chance next week's trade could be lower too.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Unfortunately, the notably lower close in the live cattle complex had a grave effect on the feeder cattle market as most of its contracts closed $7.00 lower Friday afternoon. But with the bulk of the market's support evaporated, traders felt desperate throughout Friday and merely elected to wash their hands of the market before the closing bell. March feeders closed $6.97 lower at $355.62, April feeders closed $7.37 lower at $351.62 and May feeders closed $7.45 lower at $348.07. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that throughout the state and when compared to last week, steers and heifers traded $2.00 to $8.00 lower but steer and heifer calves sold $10.00 to $20.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/5/2026: down $1.27, $367.32.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was the only rallying force for the livestock complex at Friday's end as the market closed mildly higher. April lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $95.62, June lean hogs closed $0.67 higher at $110.57 and July lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $112.70. More than anything it seemed as though the slight uptick in cash prices amid a commitment from traders to keep the complex trading at least steady served the market well as traders remained active through the week's bitter end. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.95 with a weighted average price of $91.69 on 4,709 head. Pork cutouts totaled 194.64 loads with 174.65 loads of pork cuts and 19.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.95, $98.27. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 83,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 3/4/2026: up $0.37, $90.55.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. If packers had to be modestly aggressive in the cash sector on Friday, there's a chance that they're still short bought and could need more hogs on Monday.