Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Show Further Short-Covering

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The August live cattle contract initially fell to support before strong buying surfaced, resulting in a strong bounce. Feeder cattle did not bounce from support, but followed the pattern of live cattle closing with triple-digit gains in the August and September contracts. This may set the stage for the beginning of a retracement of the losses of the past two weeks. However, the continued weakness of boxed beef prices does not bode well for near-term demand. Packers are expected to remain tight-fisted and have shown a few bids as much as $10.00 lower. I do not believe feedlots will be willing to sell cattle at that much of a loss, but the consensus is that cash will be lower. Boxed beef prices on Wednesday showed choice down $4.57 and select down $2.80. Although cattle closed significantly off their lows on Wednesday, futures remain in a downtrend.

Hogs made a substantial turn on Wednesday with traders buying aggressively. Triple-digit gains were seen across the board, with the October contract showing the most strength, gaining $3.87 and price moving back to the highest level since June 3. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report was higher as expected, with a gain of $1.37. Packers are not expected to be aggressive the rest of the week, as they have purchased a significant volume of hogs so far. Pork cutout values increased $0.25. The anticipated price retracement may continue, with further upside potential possible. The weekly average hog weight declined to 285.2 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The rebound in cattle futures on Wednesday following initial weakness may indicate liquidation has run its course, and buyers will turn more aggressive.	1)	Even though cattle futures rebounded Wednesday, the downtrend remains intact.
2)	Cattle supplies remain low, leaving limited downside price potential for cattle and beef prices.	2)	The continued weakness in boxed beef will result in packers maintaining lower bids for cattle.
3)	The strong gain in hog futures may indicate that a price retracement is underway and that further gains will be seen.	3)	Weekly hog weights remain 2.5 pounds higher than a year ago. This leaves plentiful pork supplies.
4)	Weekly hog weights declined by 1.7 pounds to an average of 285.2 pounds.	4)	The upside price potential may be limited after short-covering runs its course. Cash and cutouts need to see consistent support.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Continue to Take Hold of Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again ended the day mixed as the live cattle contracts remained on edge and hesitant, but both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts closed stronger thanks to additional fundamental support. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is down 8 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 576.76 points and NASDAQ is up 51.96 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex again ended the day lower as traders simply refuse to support the market when they don't know what's going to happen yet in this week's fed cash cattle trade. Some early asking prices have been noted in eastern Nebraska at $400, but otherwise the market sits quietly. August live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $237.62, October live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $233.55 and December live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $233.65. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.57 ($381.20) and select down $2.80 ($363.09) with a movement of 119 loads (81.08 loads of choice, 15.51 loads of select, 12.10 loads of trim and 10.27 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With the board's lower trend it's likely fed cash cattle prices will be cheaper this week too as last week the market traded lower and packers were able to gain some inventory.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may have ended the day lower, but that didn't stop the feeder cattle contracts from celebrating the additional support they've recently seen in the countryside, which helped drive the contracts higher through Wednesday's end. August feeders closed $1.40 higher at $362.05, September feeders closed $1.25 higher at $358.65 and October feeders closed $0.85 higher at $354.62. Comparing sale reports is difficult as last week there wasn't a great test of the market given it was a holiday shortened weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 7/7/2026: down $2.44, $370.75.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to maintain its rally through Wednesday's end as traders continue to be encouraged by the support stemming from consumer demand and from packer interest in the cash market. July lean hogs closed $1.05 higher at $94.50, August lean hogs closed $2.72 higher at $99.65 and October lean hogs closed $3.87 higher at $85.52. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.37 with a weighted average price of $97.79 on 6,969 head. Pork cutouts totaled 294.37 loads with 248.86 loads of pork cuts and 45.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.25, $98.16. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/6/2026: up $0.11, $91.66.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given how active packers have been already this week in the cash market likely means they won't need to be as aggressive later in the week as they've already secured their needs.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Dip Lower, While Hogs Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed again as the cattle contracts continue to err on the side of caution while the lean hogs contracts are trading higher. Asking prices have been noted at $400 in eastern Nebraska. December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 711.85 points and NASDAQ is down 118.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are continuing to scale lower as, simply put, there isn't enough immediate support in the market to keep the contracts from trading lower. With boxed beef prices lower and the assumption the cash market could be pushed lower again this week too, traders are erring on the side of extra caution while the market continues to look for support. August live cattle are down $1.65 at $236.77, October live cattle are down $1.37 at $232.65 and December live cattle are down $1.50 at $232.50. Asking prices are noted at $400 in eastern Nebraska, but otherwise the cash market is sitting idle.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $3.56 ($382.21) and select down $2.99 ($362.90) with a movement of 75 loads (48.91 loads of choice, 9.61 loads of select, 9.86 loads of trim and 7.09 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although feeder cattle demand has been relatively strong this week, traders aren't going to move the feeder cattle contracts in the opposite direction of the live cattle contracts. August feeders are down $1.62 at $359.10, September feeders are down $1.27 at $356.12 and October feeders are down $1.90 at $351.87. The spot August contract continues to hover around the market's 100-day and 40-day moving averages -- hoping some form of stronger support will arise quickly and keep the market from sinking sharply below those thresholds.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are seeing some additional support Wednesday. We are currently seeing a rally anywhere between $1.00 to $2.00 higher heading into Wednesday's noon hour. It's helpful that packers have been more aggressive this week in the cash market and that this morning pork cutout values are higher. Both factors help encourage traders to continue to push the contracts higher. July lean hogs are up $0.82 at $94.27, August lean hogs are up $1.90 at $98.82 and October lean hogs are up $2.67 at $84.35.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/7/2026 is up $0.32 at $91.98 and the actual index for 7/6/2026 is up $0.11 at $91.66. Hog prices average $96.89 on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, ranging from $86.00 to $96.89 on 2,480 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.64. Pork cutouts total 164.87 loads with 136.08 loads of pork cuts and 28.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.07, $98.98.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Demand Uncertainty May Foster Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The August, October and December contracts made new lows as liquidation continued. Feeder cattle showed a similar pattern but did not make new lows. Nevertheless, the weakness continued as demand seems to be struggling. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $0.71 and select up $0.02. Hot weather generally slows beef consumption, and this year seems to be no exception. There has been no interest in cash trading activity, with packers expected to hold for lower prices. The New World screwworm seems to be a fact of life in the U.S., with 32 recorded cases so far and only 18 cases remain active. This has not been responsible for the recent weakness seen in the market.

Hog futures have maintained the recent pattern of choppiness with contracts higher one day and lower the next. No price change was recorded in the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, but a weighted-average price of $96.42 was posted. Nearby futures maintain an uptrend while later contracts remain entrenched in a sideways pattern. Pork cutout values were up $1.66, fueled by an $8.65 gain in bellies. Packers have not purchased a large volume of hogs so far, which increases the potential for them to be aggressive in the cash market today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have corrected sufficiently to increase the interest of bullish traders to step back into the market and buy the break.	1)	Cattle futures have declined, but are not oversold. There may be further liquidation.
2)	Hot weather will reduce weight gain and decrease the willingness to move cattle to slaughtering facilities.	2)	Cash is expected to be lower as packer margins remain negative, boxed beef is weaker and cattle futures have declined.
3)	Hog futures are holding support, and further strength in cutouts may increase the interest of traders to establish long-term bullish positions.	3)	Hog futures have been unable to recover from the large decline that has taken place since March. Traders have not seen long-term supportive fundamentals.
4)	Pork cutouts are slowly increasing, indicating demand is holding and slowly improving.	4)	Hog slaughter remains higher than a year ago, but that has not reduced the supply of market-ready hogs. Packers do not need to be aggressive in the cash market.