Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Drift Lower Without Adequate Support Surfacing

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed lower Wednesday afternoon as traders simply didn't see enough fundamental support in the complex to allow the contract to close higher. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but a bid of $248 was offered throughout the day in Kansas. May corn is up 8 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 72.27 points and the NASDAQ is up 376.94 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Today was a classic example of rally and then unwind, as on Tuesday the market charged higher, feeling full of bullishness and zest, but on Wednesday, traders scratched their brow and weren't as confident about the market's current position as they were just a day earlier. June live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $251.07, August live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $246.12 and October live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $240.77. And until something substantial develops fundamentally for the live cattle complex -- specifically in the cash market -- it's unlikely that the market will push too much higher as it's already showing signs of technical exhaustion. No trade has developed yet in the fed cash cattle market, but there was a single bid of $248 offered throughout the day in Kansas. Asking prices are noted at $252 plus in Texas, but otherwise, the market is quiet. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, steady with a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.22 ($381.98) and select down $1.22 ($378.58) with a movement of 106 loads (83.94 loads of choice, 5.21 loads of select, 7.44 loads of trim and 9.01 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that last week packers didn't even buy more than 40,000 head in the cash market, it likely means that they'll need to be more aggressive this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also fell lower through Wednesday's end as the market simply wasn't willing to advance any further without some significant fundamental support developing, which really needs to come from the fed cash cattle market. April feeders closed $2.37 lower at $373.50, May feeders closed $3.90 lower at $370.95 and August feeders closed $3.62 lower at $372.20. At Beaver Livestock Auction in Beaver, Oklahoma, compared to last week, steers and heifers over 600 pounds sold $2.00 to $10.00 higher, except those weighing 950 pounds, which traded $5.00 lower on plainer steers. There was a light comparison on steer calves, but they were mostly sold $10.00 to $12.00 higher; heifer calves traded steady to $7.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 90%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/14/2026: up $0.44, $375.46.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also ended the day mostly lower as traders were left with little to no support from the market's fundamentals, as pork cutout values fell lower yet again. June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $101.95, July lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $104.97 and August lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $105.15. Wild swings were again a theme in this afternoon's pork cutout report as the belly fell a whopping $13.94 lower, and the rib fell $7.96 lower -- both making it impossible for the carcass price to close higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.11 with a weighted average price of $91.88 on 3,545 head. Pork cutouts totaled 276.40 loads with 238.79 loads of pork cuts and 37.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.65, $95.03. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/13/2026: up $0.06, $90.33.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that today packers were slightly more aggressive in the cash market, they may not need as many hogs later this week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Desire Greater Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Wednesday's noon hour as traders would simply like to see more fundamental support arise before they advance the contracts any further. No cash cattle trade has developed but there's a bid currently offered in Kansas at $248. May corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 198.24 points and NASDAQ is up 255.86 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Tuesday's sizeable rally, once again the live cattle complex is mildly retreating as traders look to the market's fundamentals and desperately hope something bullish arises from the cash market later this week when trade develops. April live cattle are down $0.32 at $252.22, June live cattle are down $0.70 at $250.72 and August live cattle are down $0.72 at $245.80. More than anything traders are scanning the marketplace, hoping to find some fundamental support that will justify the market's position before too much buyers' remorse sets into the marketplace and the contracts scale back sizably. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are noted in Texas at $252 plus, but the rest of the countryside remains idle with only one bid on the table at $248 in Kansas.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.18 ($382.02) and select down $0.57 ($379.23) with a movement of 55 loads (46.32 loads of choice, 3.18 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.19 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the feeder cattle complex has been the unwavering market within the livestock complex, trading higher in a carefree fashion, even the feeder cattle complex has eased its bullish tone as the contracts are trading fully lower into Wednesday's noon hour. This move is likely happening as traders yearn to see greater fundamental support from the live cattle complex and aren't thrilled with the weakness of the live cattle futures. April feeder cattle are down $2.35 at $373.52, May feeders are down $3.57 at $371.27 and August feeders are down $3.42 at $372.40.

LEAN HOGS:

Mixed tones are seen throughout the lean hog complex as the nearby contracts scale lower and some of the deferred contracts trade mildly higher. June lean hogs are down $0.62 at $101.82, July lean hogs are down $0.37 at $104.97 and August lean hogs are down $0.17 at $105.22. And the main reason the midday carcass price was pulled lower is because of a $6.22 decline in the rib and a $6.09 decline in the belly.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/14/2026 is up $0.27 at $90.60, and the actual index for 4/13/2026 is up $0.06 at $90.33. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.94 with a weighted average price of $90.20, ranging from $91.00 to $92.50 on 3,075 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.81. Pork cutouts totaled 154.73 loads with 135.33 loads of pork cuts and 19.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.66, $96.94.

High prices, but pasture conditions worry grows

The cattle industry continues navigating record high producer profitability, alongside mounting structural risks, particularly for feedlots and packers.

Record or near-record cattle prices are being driven by the smallest U.S. cattle inventory in more than 70 years and sustained beef demand. High calf prices, historically strong cull cow values and moderating feed costs have pushed cow-calf returns above long-run averages. According to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), margins for cow-calf producers are expected to exceed $1,000 per head, providing breathing room for balance sheets that have absorbed elevated operating costs in recent years.

Seasonal price patterns suggest additional upside potential for calf prices in the months ahead. Historically, steer calf prices tend to trend higher through the year, reaching a peak sometime during the second half of the calendar year. This seasonal strength may help prevent further herd reductions or forced liquidations, assuming demand remains intact and drought conditions do not deteriorate significantly.

Input cost dynamics remain a growing area of concern for cow-calf operations. While calf prices continue to provide revenue support, hay and forage costs are trending higher as water allocations are reduced, snowpack remains limited and wildfire risk increases early in the season across much of the West. Similar conditions in South Dakota and Nebraska created massive wildfires in March and have driven immediate, localized surges in hay demand, signaling potential price pressure as the season progresses. Feed availability and cost inflation remain a key risk, particularly for producers without secure forage supplies. As a result, the cost advantage cow-calf operators have recently enjoyed may narrow, adding pressure to margins if dryness persists.

Some structural risk lies in the gap between record high cattle acquisition costs and the industry’s ability to sell cattle at comparably strong values. Whether cattle are purchased or raised at historic cost levels, profitability across the supply chain requires consistently selling finished cattle at top-tier prices. Feedlots are committing unprecedented working capital to place feeder cattle, increasing exposure to price volatility if fed cattle prices soften, while packers continue to face margin compression as cattle prices outpace boxed beef values. Sustained beef demand is therefore critical and proactively utilizing risk management strategies can help mitigate any potential downside risk.

Profitability

Cattle feeders: Profitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Very profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Cattle feeders are currently profitable, supported by firm fed cattle prices and manageable feed costs. However, tighter feeder supplies and dry weather conditions pose growing headwinds.

Tight cattle supplies, strong calf prices and steady beef demand are keeping cow/calf producers very profitable. Slow herd rebuilding is expected to support strong margins throughout the year.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Records Are Meant To Be Broken

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures have had an impressive run up but the drama will be one to watch as April futures are in delivery and basis remains negative versus cash trade. It is safe to say that the optimism in the cash market is one of the key drivers to this recent futures rally. June made a new contract high at $252 Tuesday as April made another new all-time high for any live cattle contract at $253.60. April feeder cattle also made new highs, however closed well off those highs by the final bell. Traders are focused on slaughter volume and the cash potential this week. Daily slaughter numbers are trending higher than last week. Choice cutouts were up $1.28 while choice fell $3.84 lower.

Hog futures find another day of trading lower. The June contract is firmly below support after flirting with the line Monday. Daily hog slaughter numbers have had a mixed start to the week, trailing behind last week's daily number, yet trending higher than the same period a year ago. The April contract's final trading day is Wednesday, so not much change or volume is expected there. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a rebound of $1.73 increase with the weighted average price of $90.77. Packers are expected to step up more aggressively today. Pork cutout values decreased by $0.54.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feeder cattle index has been flying higher, giving good reason for futures to have hope left despite record-setting prices.	1)	Some mixed reports coming out of Joplin, Missouri, from Monday may indicate a wider spread of uncertainty in the market, with feeder cattle bringing anywhere from $25 lower to $12 higher.
2)	Cash targets are expected to rally as we are in a delivery month for live cattle futures with a current negative basis.	2)	Feeder cattle futures climbed to new contract highs yet closed well below the record prices. They seem to be running out of gas.
3)	Slaughter numbers are trending above a year ago so far this week.	3)	The hog market overall has little reason to get excited, with futures breaking below support and cutout values falling as well.
4)	Cash prices are higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report.	4)	Packers have not needed to be too aggressive with the availability of hogs ready to move to market.