Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Lower Trends Dominate the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With it being a holiday-shortened week, and everyone anxiously awaiting the celebration of America's 250th birthday, the livestock complex is trading lower at the week's start, as, frankly, there may not be much trader interest in the complex this week. Consumer demand is strong; however, at the week's start, both boxed beef prices and pork cutout values are higher in today's morning reports. July corn is down 12 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 242.55 points and the NASDAQ is up 342.43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are trading lower into midday Monday as the market simply isn't seeing the level of trader support it needs in order to trade higher. And while yes, midday boxed beef prices may be higher, the market could be short of the technical support it needs this week as traders may not participate as aggressively this week given that it's a big holiday week, and given that the contracts are up against resistance levels. June live cattle are down $0.67 at $256.77, August live cattle are down $2.55 at $243.27 and October live cattle are down $2.65 at $236.55.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $408 to $410, which is $1.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $258, which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.53 ($392.56) and select up $4.71 ($376.29) with a movement of 32 loads (18.48 loads of choice, 5.41 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim and 4.79 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With much ambition or excitement being seen in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are consequently trading lower at the week's start. August feeders are down $2.67 at $367.17, September feeders are down $2.45 at $365.22 and October feeders are down $2.12 at $362.47. And do note that with the markets being closed on Friday for the Fourth of July holiday, trader interest and participation in the complex this week could be minimal.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading lower into Monday's noon hour as traders don't want to get ahead of themselves and be too bullish if fundamental support isn't going to be sizeable. But it is worth noting that the morning's carcass price is higher, but the big push is stemming from the huge rally in the belly, which is up $12.16 this morning. July lean hogs are up $0.17 at $93.10, August lean hogs are up $0.05 at $96.62 and October lean hogs are down $0.97 at $80.97. The projected lean hog index for 6/26/2026 is down $0.14 at $91.41 and the actual index for 6/25/2026 is down $0.23 at $91.55. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 25 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $97.47. Pork cutouts total 143.30 loads with 114.39 loads of pork cuts and 28.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.26, $98.63.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Show Further Short-Covering

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There had been hope that feedlots would again gain the upper hand and hold for higher cash. That was true for Northern dressed cattle as cash was $1.00 higher; however, Southern live cattle traded $1.00 lower. We will know the full impact of cash trade today, as the final number and prices will be released, with more cattle likely trading later in the day on Friday. But it usually does not change as early trade, even if it is light, usually sets the stage for the rest of the trade. Feeder cattle backed away from potentially reaching contract highs. Boxed beef prices took a large hit, with choice down $5.29 and select down $3.16. The May Livestock Slaughter report showed cattle slaughter at 2.184 million head. This is the lowest May slaughter since 1960. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders adding 2,778 long futures positions, increasing the net-long live cattle position to 125,583. There were 2,339 positions added to feeder cattle, bringing the net-long position to 15,695.

Hog futures reacted positively to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report in the deferred contracts. October and later contracts posted triple-digit gains. The July and August contracts held their own, but could not find sufficient support to keep pace. Packers were not aggressive in the cash market, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report declining $1.85 with very light trade. Packers may be aggressive at the start of the week, purchasing early due to the upcoming July 4th weekend. Pork cutout values gained $0.15. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders increasing their net-short position to 33,652 contracts, up 5,012 from the previous week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle market remains bullish, and price declines may remain temporary.	1)	Feeder cattle futures have not been able to revisit and penetrate contract highs. This may be an area of strong technical resistance.
2)	The fund traders continue to add to their long positions as the market remains supported and supplies tight.	2)	The large decline in boxed beef on Friday may put further pressure on the market today.
3)	Hog futures rebounded in response to the Hogs and Pigs report. This could carry over today as further short-covering could take place.	3)	The bounce in hog futures on Friday may be short-lived unless there is greater fundamental support.
4)	Stronger futures prices on Friday could be the catalyst to fuel the correction of the oversold market.	4)	Pork cutout values continue to flounder, being unable to find solid support and trend higher. Pork supplies remain plentiful.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Drift Lower While Hogs Inch Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

By Friday's close, the livestock complex had successfully kept with its mixed trend through the week's very end as cattle closed lower, but the lean hog contracts saw some mild support. At the time of this writing, only a small trade had developed in the cash cattle market, but prices were mixed, with Southern cattle trading $1.00 lower and Northern cattle trading $1.00 higher. July corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 44.51 points and the NASDAQ is down 60.98 points.

From Thursday to Friday, the livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $2.65, August live cattle down $0.80; August feeder cattle up $3.25, September feeder cattle up $3.00; July lean hogs down $2.10, August lean hogs down $0.15; July corn down $0.05, September corn down $0.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts ended the day lower as traders were not willing to be overly supportive or overly bullish over the futures contracts without clear evidence that the market's fundamentals were going to be strong. And with the cash cattle market trading late on Friday, unfortunately, traders didn't have any indication as to what the cash market was going to do at the day's closing bell. June live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $257.45, August live cattle closed $1.40 lower at $245.82 and October live cattle closed $1.42 lower at $239.20. Only some light cash cattle trade has been reported at this point, but Southern live cattle were trading at $258 in Texas, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, while Northern dressed cattle were traded at $408, which is $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 100,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 4,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 537,000 head -- 11,000 head more than a week ago and 24,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.29 ($391.03) and select down $3.16 ($371.58) with a movement of 94 loads (72.95 loads of choice, 6.90 loads of select, 6.41 loads of trim and 7.52 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. With boxed beef prices seeing some pushback, packers may not be as aggressive in next week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Traders remained skeptical through Friday's close as they simply weren't willing to advance the feeder cattle contracts without the support of the live cattle contracts or without knowing what was going to become of this week's fed cash cattle market. August feeder cattle closed $3.45 lower at $369.85, September feeder cattle closed $3.70 lower at $367.67 and October feeders closed $3.75 lower at $364.60. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded $5.00 to $10.00 stronger, while steer and heifer calves traded $10.000 to $20.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $1.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/25/2026: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts kept their momentum through the day's close, and luckily, most of the contracts were able to close over $1.00 higher. July lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $92.92, August lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $96.57 and October lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $81.95. It was also supportive to note that afternoon pork cutout values closed higher, which hopefully will help the market continue to trade higher into next week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.85 with a weighted average price of $93.44 on 778 head. Pork cutouts totaled 273.73 loads with 252.76 loads of pork cuts and 20.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.15, $95.37. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 445,000 head -- 26,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 52,000 head. The CME lean hog index 6/24/2026: down $0.07, $91.78.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Waiting Game in the Cash Cattle Market Continues

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts are trading lower as traders wait for trade to develop in the cash market, but the lean hog complex is trading higher. Given that virtually no trade has developed yet this week in the cash market, packers will need to get aggressive soon. July corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 47.38 points and NASDAQ is up 0.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With lower prices seen in boxed beef prices at midday, and no sales noted yet in the cash market, the live cattle contracts are trading lower into Friday's noon hour. Bids are on the table across most of the major feeding states. Again this week, it's a sit and wait scenario as feedlot managers want the market to trade higher and packers want the market to obviously trade lower. This week's trend will likely be determined by whether or not packers feel confident in the supply they have secured around them. If they have enough inventory for the weeks ahead, then prices will likely be softer, but if they're short-bought, prices could scale higher. June live cattle are down $0.25 at $257.15, August live cattle are down $1.12 at $246.10 and October live cattle are down $1.47 at $239.15.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.22 ($392.10) and select down $2.33 ($372.41) with a movement of 74 loads (58.70 loads of choice, 5.08 loads of select, 4.34 loads of trim and 5.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And although feeder cattle demand has been red hot this week, the feeder cattle contracts are trading lower into Friday's noon hour. The market is up against resistance levels and needs the continued support of the fed cash market and live cattle contracts in order to trade any higher. August feeders are down $4.17 at $369.12, September feeders are down $4.42 at $366.95 and October feeders are down $4.05 at $364.30. Although the board is lower, feeder cattle sales will likely remain strong this afternoon as supplies are limited and the trend this week in the countryside has been higher.

LEAN HOGS:

Thursday's neutral Hogs and Pigs report seems to have a slightly positive effect on the lean hog complex as the contracts are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. The slight decrease in the total number of hogs and pigs is sitting well with traders as they hope that demand will increase and the decrease in supply could positively affect prices. July lean hogs are up $0.32 at $93.02, August lean hogs are up $0.37 at $96.97 and October lean hogs are up $1.22 at $82.17.

The projected lean hog index for 6/25/2026 is down $0.23 at $91.55 and the actual index for 6/24/2026 is down $0.07 at $91.78. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 218 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $97.47. Pork cutouts total 185.12 loads with 172.86 loads of pork cuts and 12.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.60, $97.82.