Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Have Little Reason to Rebound

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures began Wednesday nearly where they had left off, but dropped significantly during the first 5 minutes of trade and continued lower for the next 10 minutes, remaining choppy for the rest of the session. The selling seems to have been triggered by the news of 30,000 pounds of beef from Argentina being recalled. The news of a major packing plant in Kansas reducing production time this week added to the uncertainty. The follow-up bearishness came from the jump in grain prices after the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released. This kept futures from recovering the losses. Some light cash cattle traded on Wednesday at lower prices, which may have set the stage for the rest of the week. Both live and feeder cattle futures closed at the lowest level since the end of July. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $0.97 and select up $0.01.

Hog futures recovered slightly from Tuesday, but bullish traders lacked conviction. The August contract slowed $0.20 lower as it converges to the index. The last trading day for the contract is on Friday, with October then taking over as the lead month. Packers were able to secure a further supply of hogs on Wednesday without having to bid higher. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.51. They should be mostly done purchasing for the week, with maybe steady cash at best Thursday. Pork cutout values fell $1.33. This may influence lower trade Thursday as the market remains choppy. Weekly hog weight increased to 282.7 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The recall of beef from Argentina may renew the preference and increase consumer demand for U.S. beef.	1)	The recall of beef and the reduction of hours at a major packing plant may have further impact on demand.
2)	The increase in grain prices resulting from bullish numbers on the WASDE report may have been factored in with moderate to lower grain prices overnight. This may alleviate feed price concerns.	2)	Some light cash cattle traded indicates potential for lower cash prices again this week.
3)	October hogs retain a substantial discount to the soon-to-expire August contract. This discount may be reduced if cash finds stability.	3)	Weekly hog weights increased 1.5 pounds to an average of 282.7 pounds, up 1.6 pounds from a year ago.
4)	Hog futures are holding the sideways pattern and may be building support.	4)	Packers have been able to purchase a large volume of hogs so far this week at lower prices. Further weakness may continue.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Dip Lower While Hogs Rally Thanks to Trader Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed again, with the cattle contracts disappointed that no more fundamental support is developing. In contrast, the lean hog contracts ended the day a touch stronger. Some light cash cattle trade has developed, but no large volumes have traded yet to say that an accurate trend has been established. December corn is up 20 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 21.58 points and the NASDAQ is up 143.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

All in all, it was a disappointing day for the live cattle complex as the market seemed to come to terms with the reality that it's unlikely that fundamental support is going to arise later this week given that packers were able to secure a plethora of cattle last week in the cash market. And while, yes, at least boxed beef prices closed higher, that's still not enough support to help traders conquer the market's resistance at its 40-day moving average. August live cattle closed $2.17 lower at $230.57, October live cattle closed $2.52 lower at $223.80 and December live cattle closed $2.90 lower at $222.80. Some light cash cattle trade has been noted in Nebraska at $367 to $368, and in Iowa at $232, but there's not been enough cattle traded to say that an accurate trend has developed just yet. It is worth noting that news is spreading of a major packer in Kansas cutting production hours this week. If true, that will affect this week's fed market. No other trade has been noted. Asking prices in the South are noted at $236 to $240. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head –- steady with a week ago but 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mostly bearish outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 321 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter speeds are lower than anticipated, and the market isn't seeing as many cows slaughtered either. The quarterly steer price projections for 2026 and 2027 were disheartening compared to last month's estimates as steers in the third quarter are expected to average $242 (down $13.00 from last month); steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $245 (down $10 from last month); steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $245 (down $5.00 from last month's estimates); and steer prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $250 (down $5.00 from last month's estimate). Cattle exports for 2026 are unchanged from last month, but cattle imports for 2026 are increased by 73 million pounds with the border reopening to Mexican cattle on Aug. 24.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.97 ($372.28) and select up $0.01 ($349.81), with a movement of 105 loads (64.54 loads of choice, 16.79 loads of select, 6.70 loads of trim and 16.54 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers able to secure valuable inventory last week, they're unlikely to be as aggressive this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And in its typical nature, the feeder cattle complex followed the live cattle market lower through Wednesday's end, but its losses were much more significant as most of the feeder cattle contracts closed $5.00 to $6.00 lower. August feeders closed $3.82 lower at $346.35, September feeders closed $5.90 lower at $339.35 and October feeders closed $6.30 lower at $330.42. Feeder cattle sales are difficult to report on right now as trade volumes are lower. The CME feeder cattle index 8/11/2026: up $1.15, $355.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to rally through Wednesday's close thanks to continued trader support. October lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $83.55, December lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $74.70 and February lean hogs closed $0.67 higher at $77.95. And with both cash prices and cutout values ending the day weaker, it was solely trader support that carried the contracts higher through today's end. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.51 with a weighted average price of $95.81 on 2,040 head. Pork cutouts totaled 282.15 loads, with 252.66 loads of pork cuts and 29.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.33 to $100.15. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/10/2026: down $0.15 to $95.94.

Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mixed outlook for the pork and hog markets for 2026. Pork production for 2026 was lowered by 79 million pounds as slaughter speeds are lower and carcass weights are lighter. Quarterly hog prices saw mostly supportive news as hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $1.00 from last month's report); hogs in the fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $59 (up $1.00 from last month's estimates); hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month); and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68 (unchanged from last month). Pork imports increased by one million pounds, and pork exports were 62 million pounds for 2026.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that pork cutout values continue to trade softer, likely, the cash market will too.

Cattle herd expansion remains slow as markets adjust to border reopening

USDA's July Cattle Inventory report confirmed that the U.S. cattle herd remains historically tight, with inventory at 94.2 million head. While the report marked the first year-over-year increase (up 2/10ths a percent) in total cattle numbers since 2018, the overall market reaction was largely neutral. A record-low calf crop reinforced that meaningful herd expansion remains limited, suggesting cattle supplies will remain constrained in the near term. Cattle markets are expected to remain volatile as producers weigh expansion opportunities against elevated input costs and market uncertainty.

USDA announced beginning August 24, the Douglas, Arizona, port of entry will reopen as part of a phased approach tied to Mexico's compliance with the Joint Action Plan addressing New World screwworm (NWS). Prior to the 2025 border closures, approximately 100,000 head of cattle crossed the U.S.-Mexico border monthly, making these imports an important source of feeder cattle for southern markets.

While the reopening represents a positive step toward normalizing cattle movements, the process is expected to be gradual. Import volumes may take many months to return to historical levels, and there is no guarantee the border will remain open. (Border access was opened and closed multiple times during 2025 in response to NWS concerns.) Processors in Arizona and other border states have emphasized that restoring cattle flows is critical to maintaining operations and supporting regional beef supply chains.

Cattle futures came under pressure following the border reopening announcement, as traders weighed the prospect of increased Mexican cattle imports against still-tight domestic supply fundamentals. Live and feeder cattle futures moved sharply lower after USDA outlined its phased reopening plan, overshadowing the previous session's gains.

Despite recent weakness in futures markets, local cash cattle prices remain exceptionally strong, reflecting continued demand for feeder cattle and limited supplies. Recent sales highlight the market's resilience, with 590-pound steers selling for $5.16 per pound and 500-pound steers bringing $5.83 per pound at a South-Central Montana NHTC calf sale. Heifers were similarly strong. The Superior Livestock Sale saw 560-pound heifers selling for $4.86 per pound and 490-pound heifers bringing $5.43 per pound. (In contrast, there have been reports of weakening heifer prices in Idaho.) Recent video sales across the West have echoed overall strength, with weaned steer calves commonly sold for $2,700 to $2,800 per head. Bred heifers continue to command $3,900 to $4,100 per head, while quality young bred cows have sold for more than $4,500 per head.

Profitability

Cattle feeders: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Very profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Strong fed cattle prices and heavy carcass weights have helped offset higher feeder cattle costs.

Record-high calf prices, driven by historically tight cattle supplies and strong beef demand, have more than offset elevated production costs.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Dip Lower and Hogs Rally on Technical Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Again, Wednesday, it's a mixed market for the livestock complex as the cattle futures are trading lower but the lean hog contracts are trading higher. Some light cash cattle trade has been reported in Nebraska on Wednesday, but not enough have sold to say any sort of a trend has been established yet. December corn is up 13 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.28 points and NASDAQ is up 139.59 points.

Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mostly bearish outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 321 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter speeds are lower than anticipated, and the market isn't seeing as many cows slaughtered either. The quarterly steer price projections for 2026 and 2027 were disheartening compared to last month's estimates as steers in the third quarter are expected to average $242 (down $13.00 from last month); steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $245 (down $10 from last month); steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $245 (down $5.00 from last month's estimates); and steer prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $250 (down $5.00 from last month's estimate). Cattle exports for 2026 are unchanged from last month, but cattle imports for 2026 are increased by 73 million pounds with the border reopening to Mexican cattle on Aug. 24.

Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mixed outlook for the pork and hog markets for 2026. Pork production for 2026 was lowered by 79 million pounds as slaughter speeds are lower and carcass weights are lighter. Quarterly hog prices saw mostly supportive news as hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $1.00 from last month's report); hogs in the fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $59 (up $1.00 from last month's estimates); hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month); and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68 (unchanged from last month). Pork imports were increased by one million pounds and pork exports were 62 million pounds for 2026.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is lower at Wednesday's noon hour as the market doesn't know if the fundamental support it had hoped for will surface or not. There's not been a great test yet in the fed cash cattle market, but the prices the market has seen have been lower. August live cattle are down $1.77 at $230.97, October live cattle are down $2.12 at $224.20 and December live cattle are down $2.60 at $223.10. Some light cash cattle trade has been noted in Nebraska at $368, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average; but there's not been enough cattle traded to say that an accurate trend has developed just yet. It is worth noting that news is spreading of a major packer in Kansas cutting production hours this week. If true, that will affect this week's fed market. No other trade has been noted.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.47 ($373.78) and select up $0.40 ($350.20) with a movement of 55 loads (30.64 loads of choice, 10.00 loads of select, 5.66 loads of trim and 8.74 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And as one would logically expect, as the live cattle complex trades lower, so do the feeder cattle contracts. August feeders are down $3.72 at $346.45, September feeders are down $5.52 at $339.72 and October feeders are down $6.10 at $330.60. It's unlikely the market is going to turn higher ahead of the day's close, meaning this $3.00 to $6.00 decline will likely remain through the day's end.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher into Wednesday's noon hour, solely on the support of technical traders as pork cutout values are lower and so are cash prices. October lean hogs are up $0.85 at $84.17, December lean hogs are up $1.07 at $75.20 and February lean hogs are up $1.00 at $78.27. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/11/2026 is down $0.05 at $95.89, and the actual index for 8/10/2026 is down $0.15 at $95.94. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.11 with a weighted average price of $95.85, ranging from $90.00 to $97.50 on 635 head and a five-day rolling average of $97.04. Pork cutouts total 166.09 loads with 146.46 loads of pork cuts and 19.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.19, $101.29.