Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May See Further Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened higher on Tuesday, likely off the news that President Trump was to delay the signing of the executive order to eliminate tariffs on beef for 200 days due to the 16% surge in beef imports over the past year. Beef imports are projected to reach as much as 6 billion pounds this year. This would be a record volume. However, the uncertainty created in just two days was too much for fund traders to feel comfortable holding all of their long positions. So, even though cash is expected to remain steady or increase this week, uncertainty has gained the upper hand. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $0.49 and select down $0.22. There may be follow-through selling today, adding to the recent volatility.

Hog futures are unable to find consistent support, with prices falling back on Tuesday. The June contract made new lows as it had carried about a $10.00 premium to the May contract before Tuesday's trade. May goes off the board on Thursday, with June taking over the lead month. The market received no support from pork cutouts, as values declined by $1.46. There was no price change released on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report due to no price change being released Monday. Packers were more aggressive with a significant volume of hogs purchased and are likely to remain aggressive today with higher cash expected.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash trade is expected to be no less than steady this week, with higher prices possible based on a few trades on Monday at $2.00 to $3.00 higher.	1)	Cattle futures have established a downtrend over the past two weeks, even though cash traded higher. Sometimes, futures know where the cash will go.
2)	Cattle futures have corrected from being overbought, which may have traders willing to buy back into the market.	2)	The positive news from the delay in signing the executive order to allow more beef imports failed to support the market. That may increase market negativity.
3)	Hog futures have been under pressure for an extended period of time, with prices low enough for traders to step back into the market for the long term.	3)	June hog futures made new lows on Tuesday and still hold about an $8.00 premium to the May contract.
4)	Hog slaughter continues to exceed the previous year, indicating that demand has and is improving.	4)	Fund traders continue to reduce their long positions, according to the recent Commitment of Traders report.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Weaker Tones Stick with the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again ended the day lower -- exhausted from far too many headlines surrounding beef imports and tariffs. Bids were offered throughout the day in the cash market, but no new sales were noted. June lean hogs are down $1.80 at $98.425, July corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 56.09 points and the NASDAQ is down 185.93 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It has been an exhausting two days for the live cattle complex, and copious amounts of fear surrounding what headline could come next has taken the market's focus off its bullish fundamental position and instead ensued fear and panic back into the complex. And because of such volatile, emotional trading, the live cattle contracts are back to trading lower. June live cattle closed $1.70 lower at $247.70, August live cattle closed $2.47 lower at $241.07 and October live cattle closed $2.80 lower at $233.87. Bids were offered throughout the day in the cash market but no new trade developed following Monday's movement. On Monday there was some light trade noted in the North at $400 which is $2.00 to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average and a few Southern live cattle were traded at $260 which is $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was 243 million pounds as slower marketings of fed cattle have affected throughput and cull cow slaughter is lighter than years past as well. Quarterly steer prices were increased substantially from last month as the cash market continues to rally and trade far higher than was originally assumed, Steers in the second quarter are now expected to average $253 (up $12.00 from last month); steers in the third quarter are expected to average $252 (up $10.00 from last month); and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $255 (up $10.00 from last month). Beef imports increased by 319 million pounds and beef exports fell by four million pounds from last month's projections.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.49 ($390.73) and select down $0.22 ($391.27) with a movement of 96 loads (69.88 loads of choice, 14.08 loads of select, 4.55 loads of trim and 7.46 loads of ground beef).

WEDNEDSAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Even though the board has been erratic, feedlot managers know that their showlists are thin and now is the time to drive the market higher before supply builds back up.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex continues to mirror the live cattle market's direction and behavior, which is why the complex closed lower again this afternoon. But with the day's lower end, the spot August contract is hovering just above its 100-day moving average which is a technical threshold that needs monitored moving forward as a close below that price point could signal even more technical pressure. May feeders closed $2.50 lower at $365.90, August feeders closed $5.75 lower at $356.55 and September feeders closed $6.27 lower at $353.87. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 lower and feeder heifers traded steady to $5.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves weren't well tested but on a very limited test, prices traded $10.00 to $20.00 lower -- with several strings of unweaned calves being offered. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 77%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/11/2026: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex fell lower once again this afternoon as the market continues to be lacking fundamental support. June lean hogs closed $1.80 lower at $98.42, July lean hogs closed $1.70 lower at $102.95 and August lean hogs closed $1.72 lower at $103.97. Hog prices averaged $95.19 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with 7,451 head having traded. Pork cutouts totaled 388.74 loads with 353.94 loads of pork cuts and 34.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.46, $95.52. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/8/2026: down $0.38, $90.41.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as production in the second half of the year is expected to be greater than what the industry has currently seen. The quarterly price projection for hogs was mixed as hogs in the second quarter of 2026 are now expected to average $71 (down $1.00 from last month); hogs in the third quarter are now expected to average $74 (down $1.00 from last month); and hogs in the fourth quarter are now anticipated to average $64 (down $1.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2026 fell by 12 million pounds but pork exports grew by 32 million pounds.

WEDENSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Packers were a tick more active in today's market, but still likely need more hogs.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a whiplash type of a day already for the cattle contracts and traders are now letting the contracts fall lower upon fearing what headline could pop up next. Bids have been renewed in the cash market, but no new trade has developed. July corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 161.19 points and NASDAQ is down 446.96 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been a highly political, topsy-turvy Tuesday morning for the cattle complex following Monday's mayhem day of trading where it was reported the Trump administration was going to roll back tariffs on beef imports from all major beef exporting countries. However, then news broke Tuesday morning that the administration paused that train of thought and doesn't intend to do so in the immediate future. Needless to say, upon hearing the news Tuesday morning that tariffs would remain in place, the cattle contracts shot higher, but are now entering into Tuesday's noon hour mostly lower after being fatigued from the back-and-forth, emotionally charged changes. June live cattle are steady at $249.40, August live cattle are down $1.00 at $242.55 and October live cattle are down $1.27 at $235.40. A few bids have been renewed in the cash cattle market, but no new trade has developed following Monday's light business.

On Monday, mandatory reports shared some light trade was noted in all major feeding states with Northern dressed deals marked at $400, $2 to $3 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live sales came in at $260, $3 higher than last week's weighted averages.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was 243 million pounds as slower marketings of fed cattle have affected throughput and cull cow slaughter is lighter than years past as well. Quarterly steer prices were increased substantially from last month as the cash market continues to rally and trade far higher than was originally assumed, Steers in the second quarter are now expected to average $253 (up $12.00 from last month); steers in the third quarter are expected to average $252 (up $10.00 from last month); and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $255 (up $10.00 from last month). Beef imports increased by 319 million pounds and beef exports fell by four million pounds from last month's projections.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.67 ($391.89) and select up $2.82 ($394.31) with a movement of 48 loads (37.34 loads of choice, 5.15 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.84 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour as the market is skeptical of what headline could pop up next. May feeders are down $1.42 at $366.97, August feeders are down $2.72 at $359.67 and September feeders are down $3.12 at $357.02. Until the live cattle contracts show more confidence, the feeder cattle contracts will likely continue to trade lower.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour as well as the market simply isn't seeing the stable support it needs. Before traders will confidently push the contracts higher, they're going to need to see more support from consumers. June lean hogs are down $1.30 at $98.92, July lean hogs are down $1.40 at $103.25 and August lean hogs are down $1.42 at $104.27. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/11/2026 is up $0.06 at $90.48, and the actual index for 5/8/2026 is down $0.38 at $90.41. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $94.93, ranging from $91.00 to $96.00 on 3,516 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.85. Pork cutouts total 209.81 loads with 187.24 loads of pork cuts and 22.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.78, $96.20.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as production in the second half of the year is expected to be greater than what the industry has currently seen. The quarterly price projection for hogs was mixed as hogs in the second quarter of 2026 are now expected to average $71 (down $1.00 from last month); hogs in the third quarter are now expected to average $74 (down $1.00 from last month); and hogs in the fourth quarter are now anticipated to average $64 (down $1.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2026 fell by 12 million pounds but pork exports grew by 32 million pounds.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Trump's Executive Order Increases Volatility in the Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Packers were interested in getting their hands on some cattle early this week, with some light trade taking place in the South at $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Whether this will carry through the rest of the week is anyone's guess. However, it should provide support to the market. What impacted the market on Monday was the Trump administration signing executive orders to temporarily suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations for 200 days, according to the Wall Street Journal. This will open the door for a substantial increase in beef imports. There were also two other orders signed to help rebuild the herd by giving additional loans to ranchers and easing restrictions on wolves and electronic ear tags in cattle. This is going to increase market volatility to a greater degree through the rest of the year. Boxed beef prices were significantly higher on Monday, with choice up $2.83 and select up $6.48.

Hog futures responded to higher cash and cutouts on Friday with triple-digit gains in contracts through the end of the year. The nearby May contract did not respond as it remains close to cash and will cease trading on Thursday. Packers did not release a change in price on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report on Monday due to the limited volume of hogs traded. Pork cutouts declined $0.58. Cash is expected to be high today as packers may step up aggressively to procure hogs earlier rather than later. There is a possibility that pork demand could increase with the increasing of imports of beef from other countries, as it may increase the uncertainty of what type of beef they are consuming.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Early cash cattle trade at a higher price than last week should provide support to the market.	1)	President Trump's signing of an executive order to suspend tariffs on imported beef for 200 days opens the door for a surge in beef imports.
2)	Boxed beef prices surged on Monday, with select prices moving above choice. Weekend demand was strong with retail restocking shelves.	2)	More beef imports hitting the store shelves may reduce the consumer preference for beef, as they will not want to consume beef that has been shipped in from other countries.
3)	The strong rebound in hog futures may indicate a turn in the trend with further short cover again today.	3)	The jump in hog futures on Monday may have only been a reaction to the higher cash and cutout prices on Friday rather than a change in fundamentals.
4)	Packers are expected to be aggressive today after purchasing a limited volume of hogs on Monday. They may want to procure the hogs they need early rather than waiting until the end of the week.	4)	Hog futures will need to hold the gains of Monday, or contracts could fall back to the lows or lower without a change in fundamentals.