Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are likely to be choppy and remain mixed today as traders react to the large decline in choice boxed beef and look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report. The June live cattle contract nearly reached the contract high set on May 1 and was the only contract that closed positive on Wednesday. Even though the other contract closed slightly lower, cash trade is expected to be higher this week. Packer bids have not yet been posted, but should surface today. The drop in choice boxed beef on Thursday was substantial, with a loss of $5.08. Select boxed beef increased by $0.41. The Cattle on Feed report will be released today after the close and ahead of a three-day weekend. The estimates are for on feed on June 1 at 102.5% with the range of estimates from 101.7% to 103.8%. Placements in May at 94.0% with estimates ranging from 89.0%-104.0%. Cattle marketed in May at 89.2%, with estimates ranging from 88.2% to 91.5%.

Packers' interest this week finally provided some support to hog futures. However, they are expected to have most of their needs covered for the week and may be less aggressive today and Friday. Futures seem to have found support and are moving within a sideways range. One wonders if this support will hold and short-covering will begin to unfold, or if this is the calm before further weakness develops. The magnitude of the decline over the past week suggests the market could be bottoming. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.18 on good volume. Pork cutout values declined by $0.80. The weekly hog weights declined significantly to an average of 287.2 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle placements in May are expected to be 6.0% below a year ago.	1)	Cattle placements could be higher than the trade estimates, with one analyst estimating as much as 4.0% higher. This would pressure the market.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to trade higher this week, as higher futures and higher boxed beef prices will give confidence to feedlots to hold.	2)	The sharp decline on Wednesday in choice boxed beef may indicate that a threshold has been reached.
3)	Hog futures have been trading sideways and possibly building support. Short-covering may kick in to relieve the technically oversold market.	3)	Weekly hog weights remain 0.7 pounds higher than a year ago. That keeps sufficient pork available to the market.
4)	Weekly hog weights averaged 287.2 pounds, down 2.2 pounds from the previous week.	4)	Pork cutouts have not been able to find solid support. This may keep the upside price potential limited.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Follow the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed, with the live cattle contracts slightly more cautious, while both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts closed higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. July corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 507.12 points and the NASDAQ is down 354.68 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex eased its bullish tone through Wednesday's trade as traders weren't willing to challenge the market's all-time high scored last April, even though the contracts came extremely close to touching that threshold on Tuesday. But without knowing exactly what Thursday's Cattle on Feed report will amount to and without knowing what's going to come of this week's fed cash cattle market, traders pulled back the reins today, and the contracts closed slightly lower. June live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $255.72, August live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $248.85 and October live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $241.85. Still no trade has developed in the cash market, as feedlot managers desperately want the market to scale higher, but packers obviously sit in the opposite boat. Asking prices are noted at $260 to $262 in Texas. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $5.08 ($394.50) and select up $0.41 ($377.26) with a movement of 149 loads (104.60 loads of choice, 10.16 loads of select, 22.05 loads of trim and 11.91 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With the board being mostly supportive this week and boxed beef prices trending higher, one would think that feedlot managers would be able to hold the market at least steady, if not advance it another $1.00 or $2.00.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle contracts closed lower as traders remain cautious market participants, the feeder cattle complex was still able to maintain its higher trend, and its furthest deferred contracts closed with the highest advancement. August feeders closed $0.55 higher at $367.42, September feeders closed $0.37 higher at $365.65 and October feeders closed $0.42 higher at $362.85. At the OKC West Livestock Auction in El Reno, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $10.00 to $20.00 higher and feeder heifers sold $15.00 to $25.00 higher. Steer calves sold $10.00 to $20.00 stronger and heifer calves traded $5.00 to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 82%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/16/2026: up $0.02, $264.02.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly higher as traders were willing to advance the contracts up to the market's nearby resistance, which happens to be at the upper echelon of its current trading range. The cash market has lent a sizeable amount of support this week as packer demand has been strong and prices have been higher. Unfortunately, pork demand remains a tough subject. July lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $94.65, August lean hogs closed $1.45 higher at $96.50 and October lean hogs closed $1.35 higher at $81.27. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.18 with a weighted average price of $97.75, ranging from $86.00 to $98.00 on 10,525 head. Pork cutouts totaled 320.95 loads with 287.14 loads of pork cuts and 33.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.80, $94.77. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 18,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/15/2026: down $0.16, $91.93.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's most likely that packers have secured the vast majority of their needs from the market this week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Retreat After Tuesday's Massive Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Wednesday's noon hour as the cattle contracts retreat mildly following Tuesday's massive surge, but the lean hog contracts are slightly higher. No trade has developed yet in the cash cattle market. July corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 216.47 points and NASDAQ is up 20.72 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Tuesday's wild rally, the live cattle contracts are trading in a more subtle nature Wednesday, longing to see increased fundamental support after such a bold run higher. June live cattle are up $0.02 at $255.32, August live cattle are up $0.60 at $248.60 and October live cattle are down $0.70 at $241.30. No cash cattle trade has developed yet and there's a chance the week's trade could be delayed until Thursday as feedlot managers are hopeful of seeing the market trade higher this week. Asking prices are noted in Texas at $260 to $262, but no trade has developed at this point.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $3.47 ($396.11) and select up $0.57 ($377.42) with a movement of 81 loads (60.33 loads of choice, 4.53 loads of select, 7.97 loads of trim and 8.07 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading slightly lower, seeming to be unwilling to advance the market as aggressively as it did on Tuesday without the support of the live cattle contract's higher trend and without knowing what's going to be on Thursday's Cattle on Feed report. August feeder cattle are down $1.00 at $365.87, September feeders are down $1.12 at $364.15 and October feeders are down $1.32 at $361.10. Sales continue to be strong at the Superior Livestock Auction Corn Belt Classic and a full market report of the sale will be available later in the week.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is higher as traders are willing to advance the contracts mildly following the setback earlier this week. Unfortunately, the market won't likely see much more of a price advancement later this afternoon as the contracts are nearing resistance and as midday pork cutout values are lower. July lean hogs are down $0.42 at $94.37, August lean hogs are up $1.07 at $96.12 and October lean hogs are up $0.85 at $80.77. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/16/2026 is up $0.49 at $92.43 and the actual index for 6/15/2026 is down $0.16 at $91.93. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.08 with a weighted average price of $97.50, ranging from $86.00 to $98.00 on 3,625 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.69. Pork cutouts total 180.16 loads with 161.45 loads of pork cuts and 18.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.52, $95.05.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Beef Demand Supports Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened near where they closed on Monday and moved substantially higher from there. News of the New World screwworm has not impacted beef demand. Cattle supplies remain tight and will remain that way for some time to come. Traders do not seem concerned about the Cattle on Feed report that will be released after the close on Thursday and ahead of a three-day weekend. Or traders may feel the report will be bullish and want to buy into the market ahead of it. The average trade guess for the report is for on feed at 102.3% of a year ago. Placements at 92.8% and marketings at 89.0%. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $4.53 and select up $0.44. The strength this week of boxed beef and the increase in futures may result in packers having to pay higher prices for cattle.

Hogs continued to struggle. The July, August and October contracts closed lower, while later contracts showed minor gains. July took the brunt of it, falling to the lowest price since Nov. 21, 2025. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.32 with a good volume of hogs purchased. However, pork cutouts showed further weakness, declining $1.53. There is no indication of a bottom in this market. Fund traders are net short and have increased their short position. Futures are oversold, but that is having no impact on trading activity. Packers continue to have sufficient hogs available, even though slaughter has increased compared to a year ago.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The strength in boxed beef indicates demand remains robust despite recent news about the New World screwworm. Consumers feel confident in the safety of consuming beef.	1)	The rebound in cattle futures may be short-lived as traders may take a short-term profit ahead of the Cattle on Feed report.
2)	Higher boxed beef and strength in futures will give feedlots confidence to hold for higher cash.	2)	The strength of boxed beef may reach a threshold, as renewed higher prices may reduce demand.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and could see some short-covering ahead of the three-day weekend.	3)	There is no sign of a bottom in hog futures. The market is oversold, but the fundamentals do not suggest a change in trend.
4)	The recent sharp decline in crude oil will reduce fuel prices. This will allow for more disposable income for consumers, with pork demand benefiting from it.	4)	Packers continue to have plenty of hogs available. They do not need to bid aggressively to obtain what they need to maintain the higher slaughter pace.