Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures started the Thursday session with very limited interest, allowing prices to hold limited gains in cattle futures through early hours of trade, but softness developed in feeder cattle and lean hog trade during late morning trade. Despite the initial lackluster movement in the market, strong and active price support redeveloped in both live cattle and feeder cattle trade heading into the closing bell. Lean hog futures still posted moderate price weakness with very little additional market direction helping to stimulate strong buyer interest, or even aggressive liquidation. Markets will remain closed until Monday morning due to the Good Friday holiday. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $0.18 with a weighted average of $90.35 on 2,000 hogs. May corn closed down 2 at $4.523 and May soybean meal closed down $3.00 at $315.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 61.07 at 46,504.67.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle spent most of the day posting very limited gains, as traders seemed to be comfortable with the early week gains seen through the complex. But through the tail end of Thursday's trading session, buyers became more aggressive, helping to focus on the overall longer-term direction seen through the complex. This pushed spot April contracts to $2.15 per cwt gains, moving above $246 per cwt, while other nearby contracts closed $1 to $2 per cwt higher in limited but very supported late week trade. The extremely strong underlying support flooding into all cattle markets this week continues to focus on the expectations that cattle and beef markets will remain extremely tight and undersupplied through the upcoming months or longer, and the higher prices will not create a significant decrease in beef demand during the summer season. Cash cattle markets finally started to develop late Thursday, with light trade developing in most areas, with Southern live deals marked at mostly $246, $9 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed business is marked at $385, $13 higher than last week's weighted averages. In the weekly export sales report, for the period ending March 26, beef net sales of 11,900 MT for 2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,100 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT) were offset by reductions for the Philippines (100 MT). Exports of 13,600 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,500 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,100 MT). April live cattle closed $2.15 higher at $246.2, June live cattle closed $1.98 higher at $246.325 and August live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $242.175. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 14,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.84 ($389.58) and select down $4.89 ($387.7) with a movement of 116.59 loads (81.84 loads of choice, 7.00 loads of select, 18.94 loads of trim and 8.81 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Thursday's Activity. The ability to push cash prices strongly higher from last week's market price could continue to spark some Friday trade even though futures markets will remain closed.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle prices remained mixed through the first half of market trade Thursday as traders seemed comfortable with the aggressive market surge seen through the early part of the week. But following the midway of the trading session, steady buyer support stepped back into the complex, and these gains seemed to go generally unchecked through the end of the trading day. This pushed prices over $2 per cwt higher in all contract months as traders started to take into account the higher cash cattle trade and continued expectations that beef demand will outweigh supplies in the coming weeks and months. April feeders closed $2.15 higher at $372.9, May feeders closed $2.63 higher at $370.625 and August feeders closed $2.65 higher at $369.5. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 31: down $0.01, $366.81.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures continue to adjust lower Thursday as traders remain concerned about the ability to move cash hog and pork prices higher through the remaining spring and summer months, as well as uncertainty about demand growth from domestic and export markets through the remainder of the year. Despite the moderate losses in the complex during late week trade, lean hog futures remain within a sideways trading range as prices still are at or above the 40-day moving average due to the support in early 2026. Limited trade was seen Thursday in most contracts, with traders now stepping out to the market until markets open Monday following the Good Friday and Easter Break. April lean hogs closed $0.58 lower at $90.35, May lean hogs closed $0.78 lower at $96.00 and June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $104.475. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 237.44 loads with 209.33 loads of pork cuts and 28.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.61 at $97.19. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 31: down $0.07, $90.41.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given the lack of futures markets and limited cash hog support Thursday, Friday bids are expected to remain generally steady through the end of the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Markets Stabilize

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures started the day with follow-through buyer support trickling into the market. Following the aggressive market gains earlier in the week, traders seem to be still optimistic, but much less aggressive as the week comes to a close. With markets closed Friday due to the Easter Holiday break, late-day pressure may continue to trickle into most contract months, with traders focusing more on position squaring before the three-day weekend, rather than additional market adjustments based on demand or outside market indicators. Live cattle futures remain slightly higher, but have backed away from early highs, while feeder cattle futures are mixed in limited trade at midday. Hog futures are also steady to moderately lower at midday as traders continue to see very little fundamental or technical market shifts developing in the market ahead of the closed trading day Friday. May corn is down 1 3/4 at $4.525 and May soybean meal is down $4.20 at $314.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 188.30 at 46,377.44.

LIVE CATTLE

Live cattle futures remain positive at midday with light to moderate gains redeveloping early Thursday morning. Although prices continue to shift higher, the lack of market support and enthusiasm seen earlier in the week seems to have dwindled significantly as traders try to find a balance at the higher price points. The potential for firming cash cattle trade and firming beef values will continue to be watched significantly over the next couple of weeks, but currently, traders seem to be comfortable with current positions and willing to keep markets within a narrow to moderate range through the end of the week. Futures trade will remain closed Friday due to the Good Friday holiday, leaving markets closed until next Monday. This could allow for some additional market shifts before the end of trade Thursday, but without a major outside market disruption, prices will likely coast into the long weekend with the current light to moderate gains, especially in nearby live cattle futures contracts. Cash cattle markets are starting to slowly develop, with bids now on the table in many areas, but so far, they are being passed by feeders. Asking prices have not been fully established as of yet. Packer inquiry will continue to improve as the day progresses; however, significant trade volume may be delayed until later today or Friday. In the weekly export sales report, for the period ending March 26, beef net sales of 11,900 MT for 2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,100 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT) were offset by reductions for the Philippines (100 MT). Exports of 13,600 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,500 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,100 MT). April live cattle are $1.13 higher at $245.175, June live cattle are $0.90 higher at $245.25 and August live cattle are $0.78 higher at $241.45. 

Boxed beef prices are Lower: choice down $3.99 ($390.43) and select down $4.91 ($387.68) with a movement of 65.64 loads (39.66 loads of choice, 5.14 loads of select, 18.48 loads of trim and 2.36 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle markets started higher early Thursday morning but have been moving in a narrow but mixed trading range through most of the morning. Limited overall trade is seen Thursday as traders continue to focus on aggressive gains seen earlier in the week, while the overall outlook for beef and cattle markets still remains bullish. But with markets closed Friday and a long holiday weekend approaching, limited new buyer interest is seen Thursday morning, allowing for some end-of-the-week position-taking and market squaring activity. Within one week, the markets have focused on aggressive outside market swings, end-of-month adjustments, quarter-end positioning, and a holiday-shortened trading week. While there are very few strong foundational fundamental changes developing in the cattle or feeder cattle markets through the week. April feeders are $0.68 higher at $371.425, May feeders are $1.00 higher at $369. and August feeders are $1.25 higher at $368.1.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog prices have softened slightly in futures trade Thursday morning. The lack of new information in both outside markets and the hog complex has left traders seemingly directionless at the end of the week. Markets will remain closed Friday due to Good Friday and the upcoming Easter weekend. Hog slaughter will also remain moderately subdued Friday and Saturday, and traditionally, next Monday has limited processing runs also, which, given the current amount of market-ready hogs, will limit cash buying intensity by packers over the next week. This is in part focused on current supply, and also outside economic concerns, which may impact pork demand through the end of the year. April lean hogs are $0.38 lower at $90.55, May lean hogs are $0.48 lower at $96.3 and June lean hogs are $0.50 lower at $104.675. Hog Prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork Cutouts totaled 127.08 loads with 108.56 loads of pork cuts and 18.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.84 at $97.97.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Liquidation Is Possible Ahead of Extended Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The June and August live cattle contracts moved to new contract highs Wednesday, with feeder cattle moving into, but not closing, their chart gaps. Cattle futures increased for five consecutive days, as it seems evident the cattle herd will not be rebuilt anytime soon. The easing of fuel futures prices may have also had an impact. However, that has quickly reversed overnight due to the implications of President Trump's speech last night. Crude oil futures are sharply higher and may impact trade Thursday. Cash cattle have not yet traded for the week, but should be no worse than steady. With the significant increase in futures this week, packers will likely need to be aggressive to pry cattle from feedlots, as showlists are rather light. Boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday, with choice down $1.07 and select down $0.34. However, that should not have any negative impact on the market. The impact on futures could be from some liquidation ahead of the three-day weekend, as traders may want to reduce some of their long positions.

Hog futures closed higher Wednesday, but the rebound was limited due to the lack of fundamental support. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.41. Pork cutouts declined $0.67. There is a strong possibility packers will need to step up Thursday to wrap up their hog purchases for the week, resulting in higher cash. However, traders are not likely to take new positions ahead of the extended weekend. Some support could stem from the impact that the president's speech had on energy prices, which may have a greater impact on the economy as fuel prices escalate. Pork demand may improve as consumers turn from high beef prices.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs in the June and August contracts and tighter cattle supplies should support the market.	1)	Sharply higher fuel prices may negatively impact trading activity Thursday as consumers may have less money to pay for high-priced beef.
2)	Reduced showlists and higher futures could result in packers paying higher cash this week.	2)	Packers continue to reduce slaughter. They hope feedlots will need to move cattle rather than continue feeding them to higher weights.
3)	Pork demand could benefit from high beef prices, as consumers may reach a threshold due to reduced disposable income.	3)	Hog futures may have difficulty increasing as long as traders are unable to see consistent support in cash and cutouts.
4)	Market-ready hog numbers may tighten in time as strong slaughter continues due to increased pork demand.	4)	Packers continue to have ample supplies of market-ready hogs to purchase for slaughter, leaving them less aggressive in the cash market.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Continue Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures continued to move higher again Wednesday, with active support seen early in the session in feeder cattle trade. This helped to spark follow-through buying in all live cattle contracts and eventually spilled over to the lean hog complex, which posted gains in all nearby contracts at the closing bell. Nearby live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed over $1 per cwt higher, but this is significantly lower than session highs, where nearby feeder cattle were posting aggressive gains of $4 per cwt on the first trading day of the month. Continued tight supplies of both beef and long-term cattle numbers continue to limit bearish interest in the already red-hot cattle and beef prices. Lean hog futures are holding the firm trading range seen over the past month, but current market supplies are limiting further aggressive buying. The pressure in the grain trade was driven by the softness in the wheat complex, which created some uncertainty in most ag commodities at the end of the day. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.41 with a weighted average of $90.17 on 1,609 hogs. May corn closed down 3 1/2 at $4.543 and May soybean meal closed up $1.80 at $318.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 224.23 at 46,565.74.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle prices continue to post moderate gains Wednesday afternoon, with nearby contracts holding gains of $1 per cwt, while deferred contracts were able to hold onto market gains, but give back most of the early day market progress. When it comes to the beef and cattle market, the overall outlook of the market remains generally bullish due to tight supplies and the concern that overall cow numbers may have a hard time rebuilding in the next couple of years due to drought conditions in several areas and limited available grazing opportunities following wildfires in other areas. This is likely to see tight demand through most of the year if not longer, but the main question facing traders is whether consumer demand will continue to remain strong through the spring and summer months at the higher prices. Boxed beef prices eased moderately during the midweek session, although one day's moves are hard to measure the overall longer-term shift of the market. In the cash cattle market this week, markets remain at a complete standstill with bids and asking prices still unavailable, in part due to the active moves in futures trade and wholesale beef values. Trade is likely to be pushed off until late Thursday or Friday at this point. April live cattle closed $1.03 higher at $244.05, June live cattle closed $1.08 higher at $244.35 and August live cattle closed $0.88 higher at $240.675. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.07 ($394.42) and select down $0.34 ($392.59) with a movement of 97.08 loads (74.29 loads of choice, 9.13 loads of select, 2.53 loads of trim and 11.13 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 Higher. Feeders remain aggressive following the upward shifts in futures trade and beef values. Packer interest may remain quiet until late in the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures started Wednesday morning where they left off Tuesday, with aggressive market gains and active buyer support flooding into the market. This pushed prices $3 to $4 per cwt higher through most of the morning in most nearby contracts as traders remain focused on the tight supplies still likely to be seen over the upcoming months, if not years. There continues to be more talk about the ability to open the southern border to beef imports, but traders seem to have limited interest in "talk" at this point. Given the continued red-hot boxed beef values and further support in cash feeder cattle prices around the country, futures seem to be finding it very easy to continue to push prices higher over the last three weeks. Spo month April contracts are now within $5 per cwt of reaching contract highs, but the fundamental support is still able to keep buyers active in nearby and deferred contracts, looking for a strong summer and fall market. April feeders closed $1.63 higher at $370.75, May feeders closed $1.53 higher at $368. and August feeders closed $2.43 higher at $366.85. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 30: up $0.89, $366.82.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures broke away from the lower moving market prices seen earlier in the week on Wednesday, with traders posting narrow to moderate gains in all contract months at the end of the session. Slight market pullbacks during the day in cattle trade seemed to lead to limited, but still noticeable, technical buyer support across the lean hog market during late-day trade. Spot month contracts posted 50-cent per cwt gains, which helped to bring some additional market stability to the complex. There is also growing interest in deferred summer and fall lean hog contracts based on expected stronger pork demand as the year continues, as well as potential tightness of market-ready hogs through the last half of 2026. April lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $90.925, May lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $96.775 and June lean hogs closed $0.13 higher at $105.175. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 229.57 loads with 206.04 loads of pork cuts and 23.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.67 at $95.58. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 30: down $0.28, $90.48.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Limited further market direction is likely to keep cash hog prices steady early Thursday morning.