Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - A Second Case of the New World Screwworm

GENERAL COMMENTS:

One thing that can be said is that cattle futures are resilient. There is little reason for futures to see much pressure based on the fundamentals. It is also possible that the highs have been established, and the market may trade within a range. Cash cattle traded steady last week, likely trimming the early strength of the market on Friday. There has been some anticipation of higher cash. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice up $0.04 and select down $0.35. A second calf was confirmed to have an infection with the New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas, within 6 miles of the first discovery. The screwworm does not pose any threat to the food supply, but does increase the burden on ranchers to increase their vigilance. Even so, consumers' perceptions may have an impact on beef demand. The Commitment of Traders report showed the funds selling 4,435 live cattle futures contracts, reducing their net-long position to 116,107 contracts. They added 336 long futures positions to feeder cattle, increasing their net-long position to 11,299 contracts.

Hog futures were under substantial pressure, posting triple-digit losses through the April contract. The July contract showed the greatest pressure as some of the premium contained in the market was removed. Futures moved back near the lows of earlier in the week. Hopefully, the support will hold, and the market will see strength today in response to the substantial increase in pork cutouts. Cutouts increased $3.05 on Friday due to loins up $7.39, butts up $7.26, picnic up $6.79 and ribs up $4.79. Unfortunately, packers may not be aggressive today following on the heels of lower cash on Friday. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders selling 21,281 contracts, resulting in a net-short position of 19,849 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures were not impacted by the first case of the New World screwworm in the U.S. Traders may not react negatively to the second reported case either.	1)	Consumer perception could be negative to beef consumption, even though the New World screwworm is no threat to the safety of the beef supply.
2)	The New World screwworm poses no threat to the safety of beef for consumption. Demand should remain strong.	2)	Steady cash may again be seen this week, which may keep cattle futures trading in a sideways pattern.
3)	Hogs moved near support from earlier in the week, which may trigger short-covering and renewed buying interest.	3)	If hog futures break below the lows of earlier in the week, further liquidation may unfold.
4)	The strength of pork cutouts and continued strong slaughter indicate demand is strong.	4)	The Commitment of Traders showed funds now holding a net-short position. This may increase further liquidation of those holding long positions.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts Rally Thanks to Ample Trade Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it was a quiet day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts continued to scale higher while the lean hog contract fell sharply lower ahead of the week's end. A few more sales were noted in the cash cattle market, but the trade volume today was minimal. July corn is down 7 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 695.15 points and the NASDAQ is down 1,121.53 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $1.83, August live cattle up $2.60; August feeder cattle up $5.48, September feeder cattle up $5.47; June lean hogs down $1.55, July lean hogs down $0.70; July corn down $0.29, September corn down $0.29.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a wild week this was. From trading on one polar opposite to another, the live cattle complex initially was trading lower as concerns of the possibility of New World screwworm were weighing heavily on the complex, but once news broke late Wednesday night that there had indeed been a confirmed case in the United States, the market skyrocketed on Thursday at the first chance that traders had of trading the news. Needless to say, it was a highly chaotic week where the market bounced back and forth and was fueled by many external factors. June live cattle closed $0.90 higher at $250.07, August live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $241.65 and October live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $234.12. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $256 to $258, which is $1.00 lower to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $405, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 100,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 5,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 533,000 head -- incomparable to last week but 48,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.04 ($392.70) and select down $0.35 ($382.69) with a movement of 91 loads (68.12 loads of choice, 10.89 loads of select, 4.03 loads of trim and 7.97 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Next week's trade could be steady again if packers don't have enough cattle committed to them.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And with the help of the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle contracts were also able to close the day fully higher. August feeder cattle closed $0.52 higher at $353.90, September feeders closed $0.75 higher at $350.82 and October feeders closed $0.57 higher at $347.22. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers traded $10.00 to $20.00 lower and feeder heifers sold $5.00 to $10.00 lower. Steer calves traded mostly $25.00 to $30.00 lower, and heifer calves traded $20.00 to $25.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded steady to $3.00 lower, and slaughter bulls traded $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/4/2026: up $2.17, $361.38.

LEAN HOGS:

Unfortunately, without any major support coming to save the lean hog complex ahead of the week's close, the lean hog contracts ended the day fully lower and gave up most of the territory in which the complex had earned earlier in the week. More than anything, the market is struggling to summon enough fundamental support to break through the market's resistance at $102, which will again be the goal next week. June lean hogs closed $1.00 lower at $94.30, July lean hogs closed $2.80 lower at $98.80 and August lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $97.22. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.81 with a weighted average price of $93.85 on 1,400 head. Pork cutouts totaled 301.43 loads with 269.93 loads of pork cuts and 31.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.05, $101.18. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 36,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 43,000 head. The CME lean hog index 6/3/2026: up $0.26, $92.51.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Stronger Cash Cattle Sales are Developin

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is once again mixed heading into Friday's noon hour as the cattle contracts continue to rally but the lean hog contracts are tumbling lower. Some higher cash cattle trade is currently developing in the South and bids are on the table again in the North. July corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 391.87 points and NASDAQ is down 714.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thursday we saw the cattle contracts react bullishly to the announcement that a case of New World screwworm has been confirmed in Texas for the first time in the last 60 years. Friday the bullishness continues as even the fed cash cattle market is trading higher. Some light trade is noted in Kansas at $257 to $258, which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the bulk of this week's trade and steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few bids are on the table in the North, but at this point no new dressed sales have been reported. So far this week Northern cattle have traded at mostly $405, which is steady with last week's weighted average. June live cattle are up $1.42 at $250.60, August live cattle are up $0.82 at $242.32 and October live cattle are up $1.60 at $235.45.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.51 ($393.17) and select up $3.82 ($386.86) with a movement of 56 loads (39.53 loads of choice, 6.12 loads of select, 4.03 loads of trim and 6.23 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also continuing to trade higher as it pushes a modest rally into Friday's noon hour. August feeder cattle are up $1.37 at $354.65, September feeders are up $1.17 at $351.25 and October feeders are up $1.07 at $347.72. As long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher, the market will likely keep with its upward trend given that enough support is available in the complex right now.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle complex is seeing an influx of support, the lean hog contracts have crashed lower again as traders have all but pulled their support from the sector. You can't point to a lack of fundamental support this week as cash prices and consumer support have both been stronger. June lean hogs are down $1.15 at $94.15, July lean hogs are down $2.70 at $98.90 and August lean hogs are down $1.90 at $97.37. The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.46 with a weighted average price of $94.18, ranging from $87.00 to $97.00 on 1,095 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.71. Pork cutouts total 214.99 loads with 189.54 loads of pork cuts and 25.45 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.52, $101.65.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty Will Dominate Trading Activity

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an incredible day in the cattle complex as futures opened lower in reaction to the confirmation of the New World screwworm being discovered in Texas. That quickly reversed until feeder cattle futures moved to limit up for the final hour of trading. It did not take long for the market to utilize the expanded trading limits implemented on Monday. Feeder cattle closing limit up results in expanded trading limits today. Feeder cattle futures have a limit of $16.00, and live cattle have a limit of $12.75. I doubt the market will utilize the expanded limits, but anything is possible. There may be follow-through buying as traders were unable to liquidate short positions once feeder cattle futures were locked limit up. It was a classic sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact scenario. Cash cattle trade showed the bulk of activity at steady cash with last week. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $3.20 and select down $1.39.

Hog futures closed lower, not receiving any benefit from the volatility in cattle. At one time, there had been a closer correlation, as spillover trading activity would impact the market. That has not been the case for some time, as the markets are operating on their own fundamentals. Packers were aggressive on Thursday as the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.30. Packers have likely purchased sufficient volume for the week, and cash will be lower today. Pork cutout values declined $0.38.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The U.S border will remain closed indefinitely to the importation of cattle from Mexico.	1)	The volatility in cattle is not for the faint of heart. This may reduce market participation.
2)	The August feeder cattle contract has a chart gap remaining above the market. Follow-through buying may close the gap.	2)	Even though cattle futures had an impressive day on Thursday, the market remains in a downtrend.
3)	Stronger cash hogs on Thursday may underpin the market, giving traders confidence to increase their long positions.	3)	Hog futures were unable to uncover follow-through buying interest, as fundamentals do not provide consistent positive signals.
4)	Hog futures rejected the lows on Thursday, possibly indicating the market may have found a bottom. Demand is improving.	4)	Packers continue to find sufficient market-ready hogs without having to be very aggressive in the cash market.