Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Support Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is well supported by traders currently. Some light cash cattle trade has developed, but more trade will need to develop this afternoon, especially in the North. March corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 964.27 points and NASDAQ is up 421.21 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a breath-holding last couple of days it's been for the cattle complex! Thursday, the market experienced a sharp sell-off as traders were nervous about the union strike at the JBS packing plant in Greely, Colorado, which consequently sent the live cattle complex tumbling mostly $5.00 lower. But now the fast-paced environment of the marketplace seems to have moved past that headline and traders are again fixated on the market's strong fundamental strength as they're pleased to note the uptick in boxed beef prices and even more pleased to see fed cash cattle prices trading higher. February live cattle are up $5.50 at $240.75, April live cattle are up $5.37 at $240.92 and June live cattle are up $4.85 at $237.05. A few deals have been noted Friday morning in the South at $242 to $245, which is $3.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. And although there was some light trade in the North on Thursday, any bids that have been offered this morning have been passed. Asking prices are around $382 to $385 in the North and at $243-plus in the South.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.66 ($369.91) and select up $3.48 ($363.85) with a movement of 38 loads (24.90 loads of choice, 4.58 loads of select, 6.37 loads of trim and 2.11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is enjoying a healthy rally as well as the market is currently trading $6.00 to $7.00 higher into Friday's noon hour. Support comes from the uptick in fed cash cattle prices to the additional fundamental support of stronger boxed beef prices and, of course, the technical confidence of seeing the live cattle contracts scaling higher as well. March feeders are up $7.70 at $371.77, April feeders are up $7.95 at $368.42 and May feeders are up $7.55 at $363.75. So long as the live cattle contracts continue to gain ground and trade higher, it's likely the feeder cattle contracts will as well.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are enjoying a mild rally into Friday's noon hour as the market is merely chopping sideways into the noon hour. If the market weren't up against immediate resistance thresholds, then there's a chance that it would potentially still be trading robustly higher. But with technical fatigue setting in and midday pork cutout values down softly, traders have deemed the safest bet ahead of the weekend is a mild rally as opposed to an aggressive one. April lean hogs are steady at $98.37, June lean hogs are up $0.40 at $110.95 and July lean hogs are up $0.55 at $111.92.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/5/2026 is up $0.19 at $86.57, and the actual index for 2/4/2026 is up $0.32 at $86.38. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $85.07, ranging from $84.00 to $86.00 on 735 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.12. Pork cutouts total 136.49 loads with 121.87 loads of pork cuts and 14.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.76, $94.51.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty May Increase Volatility

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures gapped lower as traders turned uneasy over the unfolding news of the potential strike at the JBS Greeley plant. A specific strike date has not been set, but workers will strike if JBS does not return to the negotiating table. This would be the first strike in the plant's history, but it would significantly impact overall cattle slaughter. It is likely to be settled, but the uncertainty did not sit well with traders. There has been limited cash cattle trade so far, but the optimism has been trimmed with hopes that at least steady cash with last week will hold. Boxed beef prices closed lower, with choice down $0.77 and select down $1.72. Feeder cattle futures did not gap lower on the open, but could not find support during the day, closing near the lows.

Hog futures closed mixed with limited gains or losses. The nearby February contract showed the greatest loss as it has only one week remaining to trade, and it is adjusting relative cash and the index. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.24, as packers have completed most of their purchases for the week. Pork cutouts rebounded nicely from the large decline on Wednesday, with values gaining $2.27. Traders remain optimistic over demand, and slaughter continues to run higher than a year ago. However, the market is technically overbought and could see a further price correction into the weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Likely, the JBS uncertainty will only be temporary as the industry cannot afford a long-term strike. The markets will again rebound.	1)	Follow-through liquidation in cattle futures may take place as traders may take some money off the table ahead of the weekend due to market uncertainty.
2)	If the cash cattle trade is steady or even lower this week, it would be temporary as cattle supplies remain low. That will not change anytime soon.	2)	Optimism over a higher cash cattle trade has waned, with the hope that trade will develop at no worse than steady. Lower cash could trigger increased selling.
3)	A price correction in hog futures may be temporary as the market corrects from being overbought. Hog supplies seem to be tightening.	3)	Hog traders may want to liquidate some positions ahead of the weekend due to futures being overbought.
4)	Traders remain optimistic over pork demand, with strong slaughter and decreasing weights providing traders the confidence to buy and hold.	4)	Packers are not expected to be aggressive in the cash hog market today. They have most of their needs covered.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Fold Under Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures quickly reversed early week momentum Thursday as active trade pressure developed in all live cattle and feeder cattle trade. The announcement that JBS's Greeley Plant had voted to strike was the initial spark that hinted at market pressure. But the aggressive and uniform pressure seen in all cattle trade indicates that this news was only the tip of the iceberg, and early week support was unable to hold the weight of the initial market shift lower. Outside markets also played a significant role in underlying cattle market support, given the active financial losses, which are creating additional economic concerns. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.24 with a weighted average of $86.58 on 2,279 hogs. March corn closed up 5 1/2 at $4.35 and March soybean meal closed up $7.00 at $303.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 592.58 at 48,908.72.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures posted strong triple-digit gains Monday in reaction to continued bullish beef and cash market news, as well as last Friday's Cattle Inventory Report. Steers weighing 500 pounds or more are down 1% from year-ago levels, with total cattle and calves on feed in all feedlots down 3% from year-ago levels. The main change in year-over-year levels is seen in reporting feedlots with fewer than 1000 head. This is a segment that is not measured in the monthly cattle on feed reports and impacts overall numbers, although not the majority of the industry.

Cash cattle markets are still generally quiet, with a handful of trades reported sold in Eastern Nebraska this afternoon at $378, certainly not enough to establish an accurate trend for the week. A few bids are on the table in parts of Iowa, but they are being passed. Significant trade volume will likely be delayed until later today and/or Friday. February live cattle closed $5.28 lower at $235.25, April live cattle closed $6.20 lower at $235.60 and June live cattle closed $5.03 lower at $232.20. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.77 ($367.25) and select down $1.72 ($360.37) with a movement of 114.89 loads (82.78 loads of choice, 7.34 loads of select, 15.64 loads of trim and 9.13 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 Lower. Limited traction in cash cattle trade so far this week, combined with sharp lower futures trade and eroding beef values, may limit active price support and feeders' leverage through the end of the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle tumbled lower Thursday with active losses seen throughout the entire session. The focus on the news that a strike vote was seen in JBS's Greeley plant seemed to get most traders' and market watchers' attention. But it appears that the market focus and uniform softness through the entire complex have more to do with the lack of trade being able to withhold any sense of correction pressure following early week gains. The strong outside market softness is creating trader apathy, as there remain concerns that economic pressure is developing and could quickly affect consumer spending activity. Given current beef values, this could have a much more significant hit on long-term cattle and beef prices than any short-term production shift through the processing plants. March feeders closed $6.00 lower at $364.075, April feeders closed $7.00 lower at $360.5 and May feeders closed $7.55 lower at $356.2. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for February 3: up $0.59, $375.16.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures closed mixed in very limited market direction Thursday, with February futures leading the market lower with a 70-cent loss as the market freefall in the cattle complex seemed to have some spillover impact in nearby lean hog trade. The entire lean hog market continues to trend higher, with traders still optimistic about overall demand support through the rest of the year. February lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $87.3, April lean hogs closed $0.08 lower at $98.375 and May lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $101.50. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 492,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 323.08 loads with 291.22 loads of pork cuts and 31.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $2.27 at $95.27. The CME Lean Hog Index for February 3: up $0.23, $86.06.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 Higher. Continued support in pork values through the last couple of days, as well as active processing schedules, is expected to support early bids Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Retract Early Week Gains

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Strong triple-digit losses in live cattle and feeder cattle trade Thursday morning have focused on a combination of issues, all pointing to a jittery market at previous price levels. News of workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado, planning to strike seemed to be the major point of focus through the morning. This will affect about 5,000 head of cattle processed daily by the plant. Given the current structure, it is not unlikely any committed cattle can be absorbed into the system. But the focus on plants readjusting positions seems to be focusing on long-term plant viability given the extensive negative margins in the processing industry at this point. This market shift is not only affecting live cattle trade but is pushing feeder cattle futures sharply lower. Light pressure is seen in lean hog market, based primarily on weakness in outside markets Thursday. March corn is up 4 1/2 at $4.34 and March soybean meal is up $7.70 at $303.9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 406.44 at 49,094.86.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are quickly backing away from part of early week gains Thursday morning. Losses of $4 to $5 per cwt are seen at midday, creating some concern that additional sharp losses may continue to develop over the coming days. The news focus seems to be pointed to the processing reduction seen in the JBS Greeley plant based on reported impending strikes at the plant. The likelihood that this will have a major impact on overall industry processing capacity beyond a few days is limited given the current structure of the market and current overall company and industry availability. This industry is not beyond rerouting trucks to other plants or companies in order to sustain needs and capacity levels. But watching daily slaughter rates through the month of February will help give an indicator of overall capacity levels. Firm pressure in outside markets and weaker beef values cannot be downplayed in the hesitancy for futures buyers to step into a market which very well could have run out of oxygen at current price levels. Cash cattle markets are still sluggish with a few bids on the table in parts of Iowa, and a major packer has offered to "call in" for $378 in eastern Nebraska. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses, but significant trade volume will likely be delayed until later today and/or Friday. February live cattle are $3.08 lower at $237.45, April live cattle are $3.88 lower at $237.925, June live cattle are $3.13 lower at $234.10. 

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.82 ($367.20) and select down $1.08 ($361.01) with a movement of 48.79 loads (38.54 loads of choice, 4.14 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are leading the market lower Thursday. This market move seems like a general reversal to early week buyer support that flooded the market during trade Monday and Tuesday. The news cycle focus in the market seems to be centered on the developing strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, but this move is likely much more focused on the ability to sustain additional buyer support at current price levels. Nearby futures have rallied nearly $70 per cwt since the November low, creating a generally unchecked upward market surge within the entire cattle market. This lack of small to moderate corrections can make any market vulnerable, including the cattle market which is focusing on tight supplies. In comparison to the wild shifts seen last fall, these $4 to $5 per cwt swings seem generally tame. But it does create significant uncertainty given how lightly traded the feeder cattle market remains with generally light volume. March feeders are $4.50 lower at $365.575, April feeders are $4.80 lower at $362.7 and May feeders are $5.53 lower at $358.225.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures have been the quiet market through the entire livestock complex Thursday morning. Spot February futures are leading the market lower with light pressure, while very narrow losses are seen through the rest of the contracts. The continued upward move higher in nearby futures since hitting seasonal lows in November have continued to move prices well above the 40-day moving average. Recent volatility in cattle trade seems to have lost its short-term impact on hog traders at this moment as traders continue to look for continued strong demand support as 2026 develops. At current price levels and comparative price relationships to beef, the pork industry seems well insulated to potential economic pressure that may develop over the coming weeks and months. February lean hogs are $0.73 lower at $87.275, April lean hogs are $0.35 lower at $98.1 and May lean hogs are $0.15 lower at $101.60. Hog prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork cutouts totaled 136.75 loads with 120.22 loads of pork cuts and 16.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.69 at $95.00.