Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Still Waiting for Cash Cattle Trade to Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With no cash cattle trade having developed just yet, the market will remain braced heading into Friday's afternoon, patiently waiting for trade to develop. Currently there are a few bids on the table; $250 live being offered in Iowa and $385 dressed being offered in Nebraska, but otherwise the fed cash cattle market sits idle. May corn is down 2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $13.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 251.11 points and NASDAQ is up 75.01 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Continuing to hold onto the hope that the fed cash cattle market will at least trade steady if not a tick higher, the live cattle contracts are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. April live cattle are up $0.85 at $250.62, June live cattle are up $0.97 at $248.17 and August live cattle are up $1.02 at $244.37. Currently there are a few bids on the table; $250 live being offered in Iowa and $385 dressed being offered in Nebraska, but otherwise the fed cash cattle market sits idle. Asking prices are noted at $392 to $395 in Nebraska and $250 live in Texas. Trade should begin to develop at any moment now.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.59 ($381.68) and select up $2.18 ($383.75) with a movement of 37 loads (27.35 loads of choice, 1.99 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.17 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With more than enough support being noted in the cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also rallying into Friday's noon hour. April feeder cattle are up $1.15 at $373.67, May feeders are up $1.22 at $371.65 and August feeders are up $1.70 at $371.82. Demand has been red hot in the countryside for calves that will be suitable to grass turn out in the next month, and that is adding another level of fundamental support to the marketplace.

LEAN HOGS:

Mostly lower tones continue to dominate the lean hog complex as the market yearns to greater fundamental support. And while pork cutout values may be a tick higher today, traders seem to view the demand as coming a little too late in the week to really add much support. April lean hogs are steady at $90.67, June lean hogs are down $0.07 at $104.05 and July lean hogs are down $0.07 at $106.85.

The projected lean hog index for 4/9/2026 is down $0.01 at $90.28 and the actual index for 4/8/2026 is down $0.01 at $90.29. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.51 with a weighted average price of $89.39, ranging from $88.00 to $91.00 on 1,049 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.17. Pork cutouts totaled 215.51 loads with 180.70 loads of pork cuts and 34.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.65, $99.03.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - High Cash Cattle Trade is Factored In

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures did not show much movement until the final half hour of trading, when strong buying interest pushed prices about $1.00 higher into the close. It is uncertain whether it was short-covering or new buying interest that triggered the gains. Cash cattle did not trade, pushing that off until today. The general feeling is that cash will be steady with last week, but we are never sure unless some activity takes place. Boxed beef prices were lower again, which does not help paint a solid demand picture. Choice boxed beef was down $1.07, with select down $0.34. The choice/select boxed beef price spread is only $1.83, indicating that consumers are looking to satisfy their desire for beef but are looking at less expensive ways to do it.

Only the April hog futures contract closed positive on Thursday, as it is nearing settlement on Wednesday next week. The other contracts were lower as traders have been unable to find solid fundamental support. The National Dairy Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a price change for the first time this week, with a decline of $0.41 on a weighted average price of $90.17. Pork cutouts were up $0.47. There is a good chance packers may be aggressive today, as their hog purchases have been light so far this week. They may step up to finish their purchases with good volume. The chart gap that remained in the August contract from March 27 was filled.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures are near contract highs and poised to break above that level, which may result in further short covering.	1)	Feeder cattle have been unable to close the chart gaps above the market. So far, this has been a formidable resistance.
2)	Feeder cattle are near the chart gaps that have remained since Oct. 17. This is a target that will likely be filled shortly.	2)	Cattle futures have higher cash already factored in. Steady or lower cash trade could result in selling ahead of the weekend.
3)	Hog futures are near the lows, which could trigger short-covering and bottom-picking buying interest.	3)	Without much change in fundamentals, hog futures may retest the lows. A move through and close below those lows could trigger liquidation.
4)	Strong hog slaughter is keeping the hog supply current and may eventually lead to tighter supplies as the year progresses.	4)	The April WASDE report showed a projected $2.00 decrease in the quarterly average hog price for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the year compared to the March WASDE report.

 

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Remain Hopeful Cash Prices Could Hold Steady This Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex once gained ended the day mixed with the cattle contracts closing higher while the hog contracts trailed lower. Traders remain hopeful that when the cash market trades, it could potentially hold steady if not push a tick higher and give the market the fundamental support it isn't desiring. May corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 275.88 points and the NASDAQ is up 187.42 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 17,400 mt for 2026 were up 47% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,100 mt), Japan (6,100 mt) and Mexico (1,100 mt). Pork net sales of 31,300 mt for 2026 were down 41% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,700 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and South Korea (1,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex gained more strength as the day traded on through closing time, and the complex was even able to secure a mildly higher position by the day's end. More than anything, today's uptick stems from traders' hope that the market will see greater fundamental support in this week's fed cash cattle market. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, so all eyes will be on Friday's market to see how the cash sector pans out. April live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $249.77, June live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $247.20 and August live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $243.35. Do note that again today select prices closed higher than choice prices, highlighting once again how deprived the market is of lean meat.

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head, steady with a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Thursday's WASDE report showed a mixed outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 20 million pounds as harvest speeds are lighter than anticipated. Following last month's increase in the quarterly steer price projections, none of the quarters changed this month as prices are expected to remain steady with last month. Steers in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $241, steers in the third quarter are expected to average $242 and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $245. Beef imports grew by 115 million pounds, but beef exports fell by 30 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.43 ($381.09) and select down $0.70 ($381.57) with a movement of 145 loads (105.70 loads of choice, 5.94 loads of select, 10.25 loads of trim and 22.81 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With the board being supportive, and feedlot managers comfortable in holding out until Friday to trade cattle, I think there's a chance that prices may hold steady, if not trade a tick higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 550 to 600 pounds sold $20.00 higher. Heifer calves sold $10.00 to $20.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $7.00 stronger and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/8/2026: down $0.45, $364.10.

LEAN HOGS:

Pork cutout values were a tick higher throughout the day, but that wasn't enough support to convince traders that the contracts should change their direction and scale higher. April lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $90.67, June lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $104.12 and July lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $106.92. Hog prices averaged $89.92 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with 332 head being traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sitting at $90.47. Pork cutouts totaled 268.60 loads with 219.64 loads of pork cuts and 48.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.47, $97.38. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/7/2026: up $0.24, $90.30.

Thursday's WASDE report showed a mixed outlook for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 300 million pounds as slaughters have been lighter than originally anticipated, and the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that farrowing intentions are lighter for the rest of the year. The quarterly price projections for hogs, unfortunately, saw a decrease in the second and third quarters of the year. Hogs in the second quarter are now expected to average $72 (down $2.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $75 (down $2.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $65 (unchanged from last month). Pork imports for 2026 increased by 5 million pounds, and pork exports grew by 15 million pounds.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers aren't likely to show the cash market much more interest.

 

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Yearn for More Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a mixed start as traders want to boldly push the contracts higher but need to see more fundamental support before doing so. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May corn is down 4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 262.77 points and NASDAQ is up 162.31 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 17,400 mt for 2026 were up 47% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,100 mt), Japan (6,100 mt) and Mexico (1,100 mt). Pork net sales of 31,300 mt for 2026 were down 41% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,700 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and South Korea (1,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the market desires to trade higher but needs to see some immediate fundamental support in the marketplace before the nearby contract will be able to do so confidently. April live cattle are down $0.17 at $248.82, June live cattle are down $0.47 at $245.45 and August live cattle are down $0.25 at $242.17. And at this point in time, still no trade has developed in the cash market, but packer interest should begin to improve at any moment. And although packers were able to get some cattle committed to them last week, they'll still need to be at least moderately aggressive in this week's market to avoid being short bought in the weeks ahead.

Thursday's WASDE report showed a mixed outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 20 million pounds as harvest speeds are lighter than anticipated. Following last month's increase in the quarterly steer price projections, none of the quarters changed this month as prices are expected to remain steady with last month. Steers in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $241, steers in the third quarter are expected to average $242 and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $245. Beef imports grew by 115 million pounds, but beef exports fell by 30 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.71 ($382.37) and select up $0.60 ($382.87) with a movement of 85 loads (56.16 loads of choice, 4.40 loads of select, 6.30 loads of trim and 18.19 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Meanwhile the feeder cattle complex is trading mildly higher into Thursday's noon hour as the market yearns to keep the bullish feeling alive. And luckily, although the market has yet to see what's going to develop in this week's fed cash cattle market, feeder cattle demand has been excellent in the countryside -- which is helping drive the contracts higher Thursday morning. April feeders are up $0.52 at $371.20, May feeders are up $1.00 at $369.00 and August feeders are up $0.67 at $368.62.

LEAN HOGS:

Although midday pork cutout values are higher, the lean hog complex continues to trade lower into Thursday's noon hour. Traders simply desire to see steady and stable support and will need to see that develop before they'll likely lend the contracts any more support. April lean hogs are up $0.25 at $90.45, June lean hogs are down $0.32 at $104.32 and July lean hogs are down $0.50 at $107.20. The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $89.90, ranging from $86.00 to $91.00 on 282 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.29. Pork cutouts total 167.09 loads with 128.40 loads of pork cuts and 38.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.13, $98.04.

Thursday's WASDE report showed a mixed outlook for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 300 million pounds as slaughters have been lighter than originally anticipated and the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that farrowing intentions are lighter for the rest of the year. The quarterly price projections for hogs, unfortunately, saw a decrease in the second and third quarters of the year. Hogs in the second quarter are now expected to average $72 (down $2.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $75 (down $2.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $65 (unchanged from last month). Pork imports for 2026 increased by 5 million pounds, and pork exports grew by 15 million pounds.