Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Led Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day lower as traders continue to yearn for one thing -- greater fundamental support. Some light cash cattle trade did develop, and prices were mostly steady in the South to $1.00 lower in the North. May corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 115.00 points and the NASDAQ is up 86.68 points.

Thursday's export report shared beef net sales of 12,100 metric tons (mt) for 2026, which were down 31% from the previous week, but up 12% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT, including 100 MT switched from Hong Kong and decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (400 MT). Pork exports of 13,400 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,200 MT), Japan (3,000 MT), Hong Kong (1,500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

LIVE CATTLE:

After a large rally over the last three weeks, with the spot June live cattle contract rallying $12.82 as of this afternoon's close in the last 15 days, the market is at a tipping point. Either trades need to see more fundamental support to justify allowing the contracts to trade higher, or there's a chance that the top is in for this stint of the bull run. It's too hard to say which is more likely at this point, and as always, time will need to play out, and our answer will eventually unveil itself. April live cattle closed $2.30 lower at $250.30, June live cattle closed $3.45 lower at $247.62 and August live cattle closed $3.05 lower at $243.07. A few deals have been reported sold in parts of the South at $248, about steady with last week's weighted averages, and some dressed sales in parts of Nebraska have been marked at $388, nearly $1 lower than the previous week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 104,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.41 ($381.57) and select down $0.10 ($378.48) with a movement of 104 loads (73.48 loads of choice, 8.76 loads of select, 9.87 loads of trim and 12.21 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that some light trade has now developed, likely, prices will mostly hold steady with the week's trend, but with there only being light test traded so far, there's still a chance that prices could improve on Friday after the Cattle on Feed report.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex followed in the same direction as the live cattle complex, seeming uncomfortable to advance its own contracts without the support of the live cattle market. April feeder cattle closed $0.42 lower at $373.07, May feeders closed $3.85 lower at $367.10 and August feeders closed $3.67 lower at $368.52. At the Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves sold unevenly in large numbers, with 550-to-600-pound steers traded $15.00 to $18.00 higher. Feeder steers traded steady to $15.00 lower. Heifer calves weighing 450 to 500 pounds sold $18.00 to $20.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 700 to 750 pounds sold $10.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $5.00 higher, but slaughter bulls traded $3.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 37%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/15/2026: up $3.63, $379.09.

LEAN HOGS:

And again, this afternoon, the lean hog complex stair-stepped its way lower as the market seems unable to gain any technical support. Yes, afternoon pork cutout values did close a bit higher today, but to traders, that seems like support that came a little too late in the week to really make an impact. June lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $101.67, July lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $104.35 and August lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $104.57. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.72 with a weighted average price of $90.16 on 717 head. Pork cutouts totaled 276.93 loads with 223.86 loads of pork cuts and 53.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.54, $96.68. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/14/2026: up $0.27, $90.60.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have the vast majority of their buying done for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Contracts Turn Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as traders simply aren't confident with the current level of fundamental support to push the contracts any higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May corn is down 2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 96.95 points and NASDAQ is up 82.39 points.

Thursday's export report shared beef net sales of 12,100 metric tons (mt) for 2026 were down 31% from the previous week, but up 12% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT, including 100 MT switched from Hong Kong and decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (400 MT). Pork exports of 13,400 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,200 MT), Japan (3,000 MT), Hong Kong (1,500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

LIVE CATTLE

It's been a grim day thus far for the live cattle complex as currently most of the contracts are trading anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 lower into Thursday's noon hour. The big question on everyone's mind is: Has the market topped? Or is this just a setback as traders wait for the cash cattle market to trade? Up to this point, there's still been virtually no trade in the cash market, and it's very likely trade could be delayed until after Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Bids of $248 live in Kansas and $388 dressed in Nebraska are currently on the table, but still no sizeable volumes have traded. Personally, I'm led to believe that with packers unable to get more than 40,000 head bought last week in the cash market. they'll need to be more aggressive this week and feedlot managers may be able to push prices higher, or at least hold them steady. But as always, time will tell.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.56 ($382.54) and select up $0.46 ($379.04) with a movement of 52 loads (34.84 loads of choice, 4.05 loads of select, 7.89 loads of trim and 5.64 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

And in reflecting a similar reaction of the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower into Thursday's noon hour. April feeders are down $1.92 at $371.57, May feeders are down $4.52 at $266.42 and August feeders are down $4.37 at $367.82. And until either the live cattle contracts show some stability and potentially trade higher, or until the cash cattle market trades, it's likely the feeder cattle contracts will keep with this lower trend.

LEAN HOGS

Again on Thursday, even with midday pork cutout values up close to $2.00 higher, the lean hog contracts are trading lower. June lean hogs are down $0.15 at $101.80, July lean hogs are down $0.42 at $104.55 and August lean hogs are down $0.35 at $104.80. Unfortunately, the market seems committed to keeping with its current downward trend, and the next support plane is close to $94.00 in the spot June contract.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/15/206 is up $0.06 at $90.66 and the actual index for 4/14/2026 is up $0.27 at $90.60. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 349 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $90.85. Pork cutouts total 190.56 load with 146.23 loads of pork cuts and 44.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.90, $97.04.

 

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders to Position Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were unable to extend their gains from Tuesday due to no cash cattle trade and lower boxed beef prices. Traders may also have started looking ahead to the Cattle on Feed report, which will be released on Friday, and begun positioning themselves before its release. The trade estimates are for on feed as of April 1 at 99.7%. Placements in March are estimated at 93.3%. Marketings are estimated at 93.6%. Wherever the numbers fall may result in a reaction next week, but even if it is bearish, it may not have any lasting impact on the market. This has been the pattern with numerous previous reports. Cash cattle have not yet traded this week and are unlikely to today. Boxed beef declined on Wednesday, with choice down $1.22 and select down $1.22.

Hog futures could not find sufficient aggressive buying interest to stem the tide of lower prices. Futures have declined for seven consecutive days as traders are disappointed over both the uncertainty of fundamentals and the lack of technical support. The June and July contracts have closed at the lowest level since Dec. 19, 2025. Even though pork demand is good, prompting packers to increase slaughter speeds, they have not had to bid aggressively to obtain the hogs they need. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.11. Unfortunately, pork cutouts declined by $3.65. Weekly hog weights inched higher to average 291.4 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle are expected to be higher this week as packers did not purchase many cattle last week. They may need to bid higher to obtain cattle.	1)	Traders may trim their long positions ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, just in case the report is bearish.
2)	Cattle placements are expected to be 6.7% below a year ago. The beef herd is not being rebuilt, and beef-on-dairy calves are not making up the difference.	2)	Beef may soon experience demand destruction due to continued high prices and the impact of higher fuel prices on consumer spending.
3)	Hog futures are oversold, and short covering could take place at any time.	3)	Weekly hog weights increased 0.3 pounds last week, averaging 291.4 pounds. This is 0.4 pounds above a year ago.
4)	Hog slaughter remains strong, indicating that packers need to increase slaughter due to good pork demand.	4)	Cash hogs and pork cutouts fail to provide solid support to the market. Traders have more evidence of solid demand.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Drift Lower Without Adequate Support Surfacing

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed lower Wednesday afternoon as traders simply didn't see enough fundamental support in the complex to allow the contract to close higher. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but a bid of $248 was offered throughout the day in Kansas. May corn is up 8 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 72.27 points and the NASDAQ is up 376.94 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Today was a classic example of rally and then unwind, as on Tuesday the market charged higher, feeling full of bullishness and zest, but on Wednesday, traders scratched their brow and weren't as confident about the market's current position as they were just a day earlier. June live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $251.07, August live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $246.12 and October live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $240.77. And until something substantial develops fundamentally for the live cattle complex -- specifically in the cash market -- it's unlikely that the market will push too much higher as it's already showing signs of technical exhaustion. No trade has developed yet in the fed cash cattle market, but there was a single bid of $248 offered throughout the day in Kansas. Asking prices are noted at $252 plus in Texas, but otherwise, the market is quiet. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, steady with a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.22 ($381.98) and select down $1.22 ($378.58) with a movement of 106 loads (83.94 loads of choice, 5.21 loads of select, 7.44 loads of trim and 9.01 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that last week packers didn't even buy more than 40,000 head in the cash market, it likely means that they'll need to be more aggressive this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also fell lower through Wednesday's end as the market simply wasn't willing to advance any further without some significant fundamental support developing, which really needs to come from the fed cash cattle market. April feeders closed $2.37 lower at $373.50, May feeders closed $3.90 lower at $370.95 and August feeders closed $3.62 lower at $372.20. At Beaver Livestock Auction in Beaver, Oklahoma, compared to last week, steers and heifers over 600 pounds sold $2.00 to $10.00 higher, except those weighing 950 pounds, which traded $5.00 lower on plainer steers. There was a light comparison on steer calves, but they were mostly sold $10.00 to $12.00 higher; heifer calves traded steady to $7.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 90%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/14/2026: up $0.44, $375.46.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also ended the day mostly lower as traders were left with little to no support from the market's fundamentals, as pork cutout values fell lower yet again. June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $101.95, July lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $104.97 and August lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $105.15. Wild swings were again a theme in this afternoon's pork cutout report as the belly fell a whopping $13.94 lower, and the rib fell $7.96 lower -- both making it impossible for the carcass price to close higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.11 with a weighted average price of $91.88 on 3,545 head. Pork cutouts totaled 276.40 loads with 238.79 loads of pork cuts and 37.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.65, $95.03. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/13/2026: up $0.06, $90.33.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that today packers were slightly more aggressive in the cash market, they may not need as many hogs later this week.