Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Beef Demand Supports Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened near where they closed on Monday and moved substantially higher from there. News of the New World screwworm has not impacted beef demand. Cattle supplies remain tight and will remain that way for some time to come. Traders do not seem concerned about the Cattle on Feed report that will be released after the close on Thursday and ahead of a three-day weekend. Or traders may feel the report will be bullish and want to buy into the market ahead of it. The average trade guess for the report is for on feed at 102.3% of a year ago. Placements at 92.8% and marketings at 89.0%. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $4.53 and select up $0.44. The strength this week of boxed beef and the increase in futures may result in packers having to pay higher prices for cattle.

Hogs continued to struggle. The July, August and October contracts closed lower, while later contracts showed minor gains. July took the brunt of it, falling to the lowest price since Nov. 21, 2025. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.32 with a good volume of hogs purchased. However, pork cutouts showed further weakness, declining $1.53. There is no indication of a bottom in this market. Fund traders are net short and have increased their short position. Futures are oversold, but that is having no impact on trading activity. Packers continue to have sufficient hogs available, even though slaughter has increased compared to a year ago.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The strength in boxed beef indicates demand remains robust despite recent news about the New World screwworm. Consumers feel confident in the safety of consuming beef.	1)	The rebound in cattle futures may be short-lived as traders may take a short-term profit ahead of the Cattle on Feed report.
2)	Higher boxed beef and strength in futures will give feedlots confidence to hold for higher cash.	2)	The strength of boxed beef may reach a threshold, as renewed higher prices may reduce demand.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and could see some short-covering ahead of the three-day weekend.	3)	There is no sign of a bottom in hog futures. The market is oversold, but the fundamentals do not suggest a change in trend.
4)	The recent sharp decline in crude oil will reduce fuel prices. This will allow for more disposable income for consumers, with pork demand benefiting from it.	4)	Packers continue to have plenty of hogs available. They do not need to bid aggressively to obtain what they need to maintain the higher slaughter pace.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally Sharply Thanks to Stronger Equity Markets and Cheaper Oil

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With strong equity markets and cheapening oil prices, the cattle contracts closed sharply higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed yet this week, but feedlot managers are hopeful that the board's higher trend will help sell cash cattle higher too this week. July corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 347.52 points and the NASDAQ is down 270.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the onset of stronger equity markets and the sharp decrease in the price of oil, it was almost easy for the live cattle contracts to close $3.00 to $5.00 higher by Tuesday's close. June live cattle closed $4.67 higher at $255.30, August live cattle closed $5.95 higher at $249.20 and October live cattle closed $5.20 higher at $242.00. We've yet to see if this upward trend in the futures market will have a positive effect on the cash sector, but one can only hope as today's surge put the spot August contract at its higher traded point since late April when the all-time high contract price was scored at $249.72. No bids or asking prices are known yet. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 9,000 head less than year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.53 ($399.58) and select up $0.44 ($376.85) with a movement of 95 loads (69.88 loads of choice, 11.82 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.17 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With the board's ambitious attitude, there's a chance that the cash market trades higher this week too.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Between the markets outside support of stronger equity markets and cheapening oil prices, to the closer more innate support of the live cattle contracts higher end and strong demand in the countryside for feeders, the feeder cattle contracts had no trouble closing higher on Tuesday. August feeders closed $5.32 higher at $366.87, September feeders closed $5.75 higher at $365.27 and October feeders closed $6.32 higher at $362.42. At the Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $2.00 to $10.00 higher, and the six weight steers traded $20.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to $5.00 higher. Weaned steer and heifer calves traded $20.00 higher. Unweaned calves sold uneven and the quality really dictated price on those types of cattle. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/15/2026: up $1.33, $364.00.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though the equity markets were stronger and the cash market traded hogs not only at a higher price but on a larger volume, the lean hog contracts ended the day mixed (lower in the nearby contracts but higher in the deferred contracts) as pork cutouts continue to lag behind trader's hopes and expectations. July lean hogs closed $1.77 lower at $94.80, August lean hogs closed $0.72 lower at $95.05 and October lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $79.92. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.32 with a weighted average price of $97.57 on 8,650 head. Pork cutouts totaled 291.65 loads with 266.06 loads of pork cuts and 25.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.53, $95.59. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/12/2026: down $0.66, $92.09.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. At this point it's most likely that packers have secured a large portion of the hogs they needed for the week and prices could either trade sideways or soften through the later part of the week.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Soar Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the help of strong equity markets and the recent decline in oil prices, most of the livestock contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour. No cash cattle trade has developed yet and bids and asking prices still remain elusive. July corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 494.85 points and NASDAQ is down 89.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's a glorious day for the live cattle contracts as not only are the futures trading higher, the market is rallying aggressively above its 40-day moving average, which has been a challenging threshold over the last three weeks. Consequently, Tuesday's rally only puts the market $1.00 away from the all-time high scored back in April. June live cattle are up $3.50 at $254.12, August live cattle are up $4.72 at $248.00 and October live cattle are up $4.55 at $241.30. No cash cattle trade has developed yet and no bids or asking prices have surfaced at this point.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $4.86 ($399.91) and select up $1.58 ($377.99) with a movement of 57 loads (41.41 loads of choice, 8.29 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.44 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts rally anywhere from $3.00 to $4.00 higher -- dare I say it's been almost easy for the feeder cattle contracts to push a $5.00 to $6.00 rally into Tuesday's noon hour? August feeders are up $5.82 at $367.37, September feeders are up $5.97 at $365.50 and October feeders are up $6.07 at $362.17. With the help of strong support from the outside equity markets, this rally is likely going to hold at least through Tuesday's end, if not longer.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as the external support of strong equity markets and the lower prices of oil are helping improve the mood of the complex; but traders still want to see better fundamental demand. July lean hogs are down $1.15 at $95.42, August lean hogs are down $0.02 at $95.75 and October lean hogs are up $0.10 at $80.32. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/15/2026 is down $0.16 at $91.93 and the actual index for 6/12/2026 is down $0.66 at $92.09. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $95.42, ranging from $95.00 to $98.00 on 1,185 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.32. Pork cutouts total 140.36 loads with 124.98 loads of pork cuts and 15.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.29, $95.83.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Remain Supported

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures rebounded as traders do not believe the New World screwworm and the small plant closings will have any negative impact on the market. Beef demand remains strong, and there is little indication of a surge in available cattle or herd rebuilding. The U.S. and Iran have a preliminary peace agreement to end the war and lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have fallen significantly over the past three days, which will lower fuel prices. Consumers will have more disposable income, which may keep beef demand strong. Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday, with choice up $3.12 and select up $3.69. The market is holding support, which may provide traders with the confidence to buy into the market. Feeder cattle surged higher as demand at auctions remain strong, with a premium being paid for cattle.

Hog futures reversed Monday, with October through February contracts moving to new lows. Support continues to remain elusive, with fund traders net short in the market. Packers were aggressive on Monday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $1.98. Pork cutouts declined $0.27. Pork demand is good, but it is masked by the availability of the product. The strong slaughter pace increases the availability of pork, which keeps supply readily available for demand. Pork prices are not improving due to the plentiful supply. There has been anticipation that hog runs would diminish, but that has not been the case.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The strength in cattle futures on Monday indicates the recent news has not been bearish for the market.	1)	Packers continue to reduce slaughter, attempting to improve their margins. Feedlots cannot hold heavier cattle indefinitely.
2)	Packers may need to be more aggressive this week, as they were light buyers last week.	2)	Live cattle are at the top of the recent trading range, which may limit further upside potential.
3)	Hog slaughter remains strong and should keep supplies current. This may eventually tighten supplies.	3)	New lows on some hog contracts do not bode well for the market. Traders see no need to cover their short positions even though the market is oversold.
4)	Hog futures remain oversold, and a price retracement could take place at any time.	4)	Pork cutouts lack consistent support. The supply of pork is plentiful.