Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Close Lower Once Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures have remained lightly traded through the entire week, which is not unusual for a Fourth of July Holiday week. With markets closed Friday in celebration of Independence Day, traders are focusing on trade early next week. It is expected that the overall volume should return to a more normal routine. But the uncertainty of whether this will bring aggressive buyer support back to the livestock market, especially the cattle complex, may keep many traders hesitant to actively step back into the market. Nearby live cattle and feeder cattle posted sharp double-digit losses for the week, focusing on the demand side of the market during the last half of the summer and fall months. Lean hog futures posted strong late-week gains, but most of this support is likely due to previous market pressure and end-of-the-week short covering rather than changing market conditions. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.45 with a weighted average of $95.47 on 916 hogs. December corn closed down 3/4 at $4.415 and December soybean meal closed down $0.30 at $304.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 594.83 at 52,900.07.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures posted another discouraging market close Thursday, with late-day pressure posting losses of $2 to $2.50 per cwt through the entire complex. All contracts are now comfortably traded well under $240 per cwt, with August closing at $239.22 per cwt, while the rest of the complex has now moved below $235 per cwt. Boxed beef values posted strong late-week weakness, but it is uncertain just how much additional pressure will be seen in wholesale meat markets in the next week, given the shift lower in futures prices and cash trade. Cash cattle trade continued to develop during the day Thursday. Given the upcoming holiday weekend and trade that started to develop Wednesday, it appears the bulk of business is essentially completed for the week, with Northern dressed deals marked at mostly $403, $5 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals came in at $255, $3 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. August live cattle closed $2.60 lower at $239.225, October live cattle closed $2.43 lower at $234.3 and December live cattle closed $2.35 lower at $234.225. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, steady with a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.19 ($387.07) and select down $2.26 ($367.43) with a movement of 111.62 loads (83.98 loads of choice, 10.71 loads of select, 8.25 loads of trim and 8.68 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Thursday, Most of the expected business needing to be done for the week is already in the books. Additional trade that may develop is likely to fit into the range seen over the last couple of days.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures posted additional sharp market losses, with limited buyer interest anywhere in sight on the eve of the Independence Day Holiday weekend. Although prices hovered within moderate to firm losses through most of the session, late-day selling pressure developed, with prices falling nearly $4 per cwt at the end of the week. Spot month August contracts fell $12.68 per cwt through the week, creating additional concerns about further market pressure that could develop during early July. There still remains hope that the lack of market activity during this past week accelerated the downward shift, which will keep traders and market watchers closely monitoring opening market moves Monday morning. Futures trade will remain closed Friday due to the Fourth of July Holiday. August feeders closed $3.53 lower at $360.625, September feeders closed $3.70 lower at $358.475 and October feeders closed $3.73 lower at $355.575. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 30: down $5.74, $371.25.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog bounced higher in nearby summer and fall contracts Thursday, although the tone of the market remains extremely weak. As stated over the last couple of days, August contracts are showing the most price support, but August contracts also remain extremely lightly traded with limited open interest compared to surrounding contracts. This is limiting the impact of current price moves based on the lack of contracts that are impacted by this move. July contracts posted a 50-cent per cwt increase, moving to $93.85 per cwt. This price is still over $9 per cwt below the 40-day moving average. And dangerously close to testing the April 2025 contract low. A move below this low at $91.80 in the near future could quickly spark significant technical pressure. July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $93.85, August lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $98.75 and October lean hogs closed $0.53 higher at $82.025. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 455,000 head, 11,000 head less than a week ago and 52,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 232.61 loads with 208.93 loads of pork cuts and 23.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.35 at $96.06. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 30: up $0.24, $91.48.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Cash market weakness seen through the last half of the week is expected to continue to be seen Monday. Limited processing speeds will be seen over the next few days with plants on holiday schedules.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Continued Cattle Market Pressure Seen

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures appear to be casually coasting into the long holiday weekend with the same lackluster interest seen through the previous few days. Cattle futures continue to hold moderate to firm losses, trading $1 to $2 per cwt lower in all nearby live and feeder cattle contracts. The hope that buyer interest would redevelop after the first of the month has so far not proven out. But now the focus seems to be on potential buyer support early next week once holiday schedules are cleared and trade activity returns to a more normal routine. The Fourth of July holiday trade nearly always creates some volume disruptions in the market given how the holiday falls each year during the week, combined with summer vacation schedules. Lean hog futures seem to be showing limited signs of buyer interest during the morning trade, although at this point, anything except sharp nearly limit gains would still be considered minimal given the recent market pressure through the complex. December corn is up 3/4 at $4.43 and December soybean meal is up $0.70 at $305.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 352.58 at 52,657.82.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are showing additional end-of-week weakness with late 2026 and early 2027 contracts holding losses at or near $2 per cwt at midday Thursday. Market apathy continues due to very light trade volume during the holiday week, as well as little to no new fundamental or technical market factors developing Thursday. All nearby contracts are now trading below the $240 per cwt threshold, which could create an additional barrier for the market in the next couple of weeks. Trade is expected to remain sluggish within the current daily trading range through the rest of the session as traders prepare for the long holiday weekend. Futures markets are closed Friday, with a normal schedule for Monday, potentially bringing back additional volume and interest. Cash cattle trade is starting to become more active through the morning Thursday. It is expected both sides will attempt to wrap things up before the end of the day, heading into the long holiday weekend with enough business done for next week's needs. Light to moderate trade is being reported in Kansas and Nebraska at fully steady money with Wednesday's business. A few additional bids are also on the table in those areas. A light trade was reported in most areas Wednesday. Northern dressed deals took place at mostly $403 -- $5 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals came in at $255, $3 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. August live cattle are $1.45 lower at $240.375, October live cattle are $1.05 lower at $235.675, December live cattle are $0.98 lower at $235.60. 

Boxed beef prices are Mixed: choice down $3.61 ($387.65) and select down $0.49 ($369.20) with a movement of 58.30 loads (42.05 loads of choice, 4.03 loads of select, 6.23 loads of trim and 5.99 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures continue to erode lower Thursday, despite hope that traders would try to square positions at the end of the week following strong market pressure during the entire week. With front-month futures falling over $10 per cwt in the last week, the concern is additional market pressure may develop despite continued focus on tight supplies and overall expectations that domestic beef demand will remain strong in the upcoming months. Very limited market interest is seen in a feeder cattle complex that is hard pressed to be actively traded in a normal week. The expectation that additional volume will return to the market early next week could bring about additional volatility to the feeder cattle market Monday. August feeders are $1.45 lower at $362.7, September feeders are $1.35 lower at $360.825 and October feeders are $1.80 lower at $357.50.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are the bright spot of the livestock complex Thursday morning, but only because nearby trade is holding prices in positive territory, compared to moderate to strong losses developing in cattle trade. Little to no additional fundamental or technical shifts have developed in late-week trade as traders prepare more for the long holiday weekend than any other factor at this point. August futures are leading the complex higher with a $1.52 per cwt gain, but the August complex also has significantly lower market volume than surrounding contracts. This light volume adds to uncertainty about how substantial the late-week gains are and whether this support can hold early next week when additional trade volume enters the market. July lean hogs are $0.40 higher at $93.75, August lean hogs are $1.28 higher at $98.325 and October lean hogs are $0.38 higher at $81.875. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.37 with a weighted average of $95.79, ranging from $94.00 to $98.00 on 715 head with a five-day rolling average of $96.98. Pork cutouts totaled 132.27 loads with 118.40 loads of pork cuts and 13.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.12 at $95.63.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash Cattle Trade to Continue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures tried to regain a foothold Wednesday, making a valiant effort to regain some of the recent losses. Although the October and later live cattle contracts closed slightly higher, the nearby August closed lower, resulting in a lower high and lower low. Even though the August carries a substantial discount to cash, traders have been unwilling to support the contracts, being concerned about the strength of cash over the next two months. We know supplies are tight, but the market is driven by demand. Cash cattle trade on Wednesday showed Southern live cattle $3.00 lower and Northern dressed cattle $5.00 lower. This may keep traders cautious about becoming exuberant with buying. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $1.90 and select down $1.99. Feeder cattle showed greater weakness as traders are uncertain over near-term prices.

Hog futures have been the recipient of spread trading over the past week. Bear-spreading took place on Wednesday, unwinding the bull spreads of earlier in the week. Traders are uncertain whether support is being established or there may be another leg down at some point. The safer way to trade the market is through spread trading. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.66 on good volume. It seems packers have purchased a large portion of their needs for the week with cash expected to be lower Thursday. Pork cutout values increased $0.22. The markets will be closed on Friday for the July 4 holiday weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Lower cash cattle trade is already factored in, which could result in some short-covering and new buying interest ahead of the extended weekend.	1)	Cash weakness was not expected and may cause traders to maintain the significant discount of August live cattle futures to cash.
2)	Fuel prices continue to decline, which may increase consumers' disposable income and help maintain strong beef demand despite high beef prices.	2)	Boxed beef prices may show weakness after the July 4 holiday as summer weather may impact beef consumption.
3)	Hog futures are slowly building an uptrend as support holds. Slaughter remains strong, indicating good demand.	3)	The weekly hog weights increased by 0.8 pounds to average 286.9 pounds. This is 2.8 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	Hog futures remain oversold, which could result in further short-covering as the market seems to have established support.	4)	Hog futures continue to remain near support, trying to establish an uptrend. However, market fundamentals have provided little reason for traders to become bullish.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Close Lower Once Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle futures seemed to be on an early quest to regain at least a portion of the strong market losses seen earlier in the week. But the combination of softer cash cattle activity and general market apathy at the end of the session led to these early gains quickly eroding before the closing bell. The pushed spot August live cattle futures lower at the end of the session, although other nearby contracts were able to etch out the slightest of gains. Even though most live cattle contracts closed higher, this was still a moral defeat for the entire market, given the focus on rebounding from the late June market slide. Trade Thursday is expected to remain sluggish and likely once again unpredictable given the long holiday weekend approaching, and the lack of additional market news from a fundamental or technical standpoint before the end of the week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.66 with a weighted average of $96.92 on 6,950 hogs. December corn closed up 6 1/4 at $4.423 and December soybean meal closed up $1.60 at $304.7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 13.96 at 52,305.24.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures closed mixed Wednesday in limited trade volume as traders not only took into account the inability of feeder cattle to hold early gains, but also the general lack of buyer interest moving back into the market after late-month liquidation seemed to be generally disheartening. August futures were the only contract to close lower in the nearby contracts, but even this shift remains concerning, especially given the chart direction as June contracts expired, and August took over as spot month contracts at a $12 per cwt discount. Chart shifts do not create a clear picture of the market; we all understand this. But for those traders who are measuring market direction from a 30,000 ft view, it does become a factor in at least a portion of the buying decisions. Trade is expected to remain extremely sluggish throughout the rest of the week, which may add even more volatility to the market Thursday.

Cash cattle trade started to develop through mid to late afternoon, although it is likely that additional trade will still need to be done before the end of the week for next week's full processing schedules. Light trade developed in several areas this afternoon, with Northern dressed deals at mostly $403, $5 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live trade came in at $255, $3 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. Much of this trade was done after the Mandatory cut-off, so it will be interesting to see just how many head traded when summaries are released tomorrow. August live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $241.825, October live cattle closed $0.08 higher at $236.725 and December live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $236.575. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.90 ($391.26) and select down $1.99 ($369.69) with a movement of 113.12 loads (78.51 loads of choice, 15.38 loads of select, 9.12 loads of trim and 10.11 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Wednesday, Light but limited trade is still expected in the cash markets Thursday. The early moves of cattle, $3 to $5 per cwt lower than last week's average, seem to set a lower tone for the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures were probably the most disappointing complex in the livestock market Wednesday. Early buyer support stepped into the complex, helping prices rebound slightly from early-week losses. But the inability to sustain these triple-digit gains and close lower in all nearby contracts added even more concern and uncertainty to the entire feeder cattle market, which has tumbled significantly in the last week. With markets closed Friday, and many traders expected to remain absent Thursday ahead of the holiday break, it is unlikely that a strong market direction will develop yet this week. August feeders closed $0.45 lower at $364.15, September feeders closed $0.35 lower at $362.175 and October feeders closed $0.35 lower at $359.3. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 29: down $0.41, $376.99.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog traded caught wind of the lack of support through the rest of the complex, Wednesday afternoon. The most aggressive pressure was seen in nearby contracts, with August futures leading the market lower with a $1.15 per cwt loss. August futures remain extremely lightly traded, especially given the limited market volume and activity during this holiday week. But the inability to show positive results, given the current market pressure, is adding even more concerns both fundamentally and technically. Although the overall lack of interest in the market this week is making it hard to put too much stock into any daily moves, but the lack of optimism in the market continues to be very evident. July lean hogs closed $0.98 lower at $93.35, August lean hogs closed $1.15 lower at $97.05 and October lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $81.50. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 239.37 loads with 197.98 loads of pork cuts and 41.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.22 at $95.71. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 29: down $0.17, $91.24.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Limited market direction is expected through the end of the week. Thursday is expected to be the last full day of hog processing for the week through the country, with holiday schedules limiting overall plant capacities Friday and Saturday due to the Fourth of July Holiday.