Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Canada Bans Texas Livestock Imports

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There remains uncertainty over the impact of the New World screwworm on the market. Futures have declined at times from knee-jerk reactions based on news stories. However, once those stories are digested, buying interest surfaces. The Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced temporary restrictions on livestock imports from Texas. Cattle, horses and other livestock that originated in Texas or were present in the state within 21 days before entering Canada will be denied from crossing the border. This does not hinder the importation of processed beef. This is not expected to have much impact on the market, other than another story for traders to consider. Cash cattle have not traded this week, but the anticipation is for steady cash. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice up $0.70 and select down $1.16.

Hog futures just cannot find support. Futures are nearing and expected to test price support at the lows from mid-November. An oversold market has had little impact on futures. The usual pattern of a market that has declined so much for so long is a substantial price retracement, but that has not yet happened. Packers were aggressive on Tuesday, with the National Direct Afternoon report showing cash up $1.37 on strong volume. However, this is offset by a $2.50 decline in pork cutout values. Packers may not be as aggressive today as they may see how many hogs they can purchase both today and Thursday without bidding higher. Then, if needed, they may be aggressive on Friday to fulfill the weekly buying requirements.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	June live cattle futures continue to hold a discount to cash, which may change over the next few weeks before the end of the contract.	1)	The discovery of the New World screwworm in the U.S. will continue to provide uncertainty in the market and may limit upside potential.
2)	Not many cattle move from Texas to Canada in general. The temporary ban should not have any impact on the market.	2)	Cash cattle trade is expected to be no better than steady and could be lower as packers have some purchased for deferred delivery.
3)	Hog futures are near the long-term support from mid-November. Buying interest should surface.	3)	Hog futures are expected to retest the lows from mid-November, which means further weakness is expected.
4)	Hog futures are oversold, and a test of technical support could trigger short covering.	4)	Traders remain unable to find consistent support in cutout values. Pork demand is not remaining consistent.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Following Monday's Regression, Cattle Were Able to Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed as traders helped mildly support the cattle contracts, but weren't willing to lend any support to the hog contracts. Bids of $403 were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. July corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 86.10 points and the NASDAQ is down 250.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day higher as traders felt comfortable mildly advancing the contracts following Monday's regression. Today's traders' decision to advance the contracts felt somewhat effortless as they were no longer up against immediate resistance pressure and could do so in a modest manner, which would pose any significant technical ramifications. June live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $248.02, August live cattle closed $2.97 higher at $239.70 and October live cattle closed $2.77 higher at $232.12. Throughout the day, bids of $403 were offered in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. Asking prices of $258 to $260 were noted in Texas, but no cattle traded. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.70 ($392.90) and select down $1.16 ($376.93) with a movement of 138 loads (111.10 loads of choice, 16.76 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.41 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. If the board remains supportive, feedlot managers may be able to hold the market steady unless packers feel confident about the volume of cattle they have placed around them.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Thanks to the added technical support of the live cattle market's higher trend, and the strong demand in the countryside seen early this week, the feeder cattle contracts were also able to close higher. August feeders closed $3.45 higher at $354.15, September feeders closed $3.25 higher at $350.70 and October feeders closed $3.12 higher at $346.90. At the Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady to $10.00 higher and feeder heifers sold $5.00 to $18.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/8/2026: up $1.19, $368.20.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex struggled throughout all of Tuesday's trade, keeping with its lower trend. Unfortunately, even though there was a positive movement in the cash market, the fact that pork cutout values closed lower is enough to discourage traders and keep the contracts trading lower. July lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $96.15, August lean hogs closed $1.45 lower at $94.70 and October lean hogs closed $1.35 lower at $81.00. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.37 with a weighted average price of $97.48 on 8,000 head. Pork cutouts total 330.37 loads with 305.36 loads of pork cuts and 25.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.50, $95.96. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/5/2026: up $0.03, $92.63.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Tuesday's movement in the cash market was sizeable at 8,000 head, which could mean that packers are in need of more hogs.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Inch Higher While Hogs Continue to Struggle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Following Monday's slight correction, the cattle contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour while the hog contracts continue to tumble lower. A single cash cattle bid is currently on the table in Nebraska, but no cattle have traded at this point. July corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 283.33 points and NASDAQ is down 735.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mildly higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the market simply feels it has more upward mobility following Monday's decline, which pulled the contracts away from resistance at its 40-day moving average. June live cattle are up $0.77 at $247.30, August live cattle are up $1.42 at $238.15 and October live cattle are up $1.20 at $230.55. A single bid is currently on the table in Nebraska at $403, but no cattle have traded yet. Asking prices are noted at $258 to $260 in Texas, but otherwise remain elusive.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.34 ($391.86) and select up $0.41 ($378.50) with a movement of 75 loads (60.09 load of choice, 7.16 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.32 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mildly higher into Tuesday's noon hour as well as the market continues to mirror the direction of the live cattle market. August feeders are up $1.42 at $352.12, September feeders are up $1.55 at $349.00 and October feeders are up $1.62 at $345.40. As long as the live cattle complex keeps with its higher trend through Tuesday's close the feeder cattle complex will likely do the same.

LEAN HOGS:

In keeping with its recent trend, the lean hog complex is continuing to slide lower. Sinking to its lowest point since last November in the spot July contract, the lean hog complex continues to suffer as traders need stronger fundamental support. June lean hogs are down $0.22 at $93.75, July lean hogs are down $1.35 at $96.00 and August lean hogs are down $1.65 at $94.50. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/8/2026 is up $0.13 at $92.76 and the actual index for 6/5/2026 is up $0.03 at $92.63. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.16 with a weighted average price of $97.17, ranging from $85.00 to $98.00 on 2,710 head and a five-day rolling average of $95.80. Pork cutouts total 148.55 loads with 137.41 loads of pork cuts and 11.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values down $0.67, $97.79.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Struggle to Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Once one case of the New World screwworm (NWS) was confirmed, more cases have been discovered. Cases are expected to increase now that it has moved into the U.S. It is uncertain what the fundamental impact will be on the market. It does not impact the safety of beef, and it may not impact cattle supplies. If anything, some cattle movement will be limited, and potentially, some impact on herd rebuilding. The result is that ranchers will be more vigilant, increasing the time spent observing their cattle. However, the uncertainty may trigger further liquidation in the futures market as traders may reduce their long positions. Boxed beef prices were lower on Monday, with choice down $0.50 and select down $4.60. Early expectations are for cash to be no better than steady this week.

Hog futures tried to regain some lost ground but fell through and closed below the previous low. Fund traders are net short in the market and seem to feel comfortable increasing their short positions. The July contract has moved to the lowest level since Dec. 2, 2025. Support in the market remains elusive. Packers were aggressive on Monday with cash on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $2.26. That is not expected to have much impact on the market today due to the weakness in pork cutouts. Cutouts were down $2.72. Packers are expected to be aggressive again today as they purchase hogs early in the week rather than later.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The New World screwworm should have little impact on the overall market fundamentals. They should remain bullish.	1)	More cases of the New World screwworm may increase market uncertainty and trigger further liquidation.
2)	Pasture and rangeland conditions increased by 1 percentage point last week to 31 percent good to excellent. There are reports of continued herd reductions.	2)	There could be some negative consumer impact on the market due to misinformation about the New World screwworm, which could lead to reduced beef consumption.
3)	Hog futures seem to be overdone to the downside. The market will run out of aggressive sellers, and a price retracement will unfold.	3)	Hog futures remain in a downtrend. Traders are following the path of least resistance.
4)	There continue to be signs of increasing pork demand. Low prices should cure low prices.	4)	Hog supplies remain sufficient, with packers having little difficulty purchasing the hogs needed for slaughter.