Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally Boldly into the Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a rallying, robust day for the cattle complex, but the lean hog contracts still ended the day lower. At the time of this writing still no Southern cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is down 20 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $8.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 483.35 points and NASDAQ is up 171.61 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following change: October live cattle up $6.13, December live cattle up $5.58; October feeder cattle up $9.23, November feeder cattle up $10.80; October lean hogs down $2.83, December lean hogs down $2.30.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex had a splendid day where traders helped drive the contracts well above their current trading range. More than anything it seemed as though the hope that the fed cash cattle market could potentially trade higher had traders willing to invest in the marketplace. At the time of this writing no trade has developed in the South, but bids of $223 were offered and feedlot managers in both Kansas and Texas passed on the offer. Some light trade was noted earlier in the week in Nebraska at $345 which is steady to $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. There's a chance that trade could cut loose and develop at any moment, that it will be drug into the weekend or that packers will go short bought into next week's market. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 94,000 head -- 6,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 5,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 531,000 head -- 17,000 head less than a week ago and 20,000 head less than a year ago.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of

2026.Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 75 million pounds as slaughter speeds continue to be light compared to years past. Quarter steer prices were unchanged from last month's report, with steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 expected to average $235, steers in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235, steers in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235 and steers in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 85 million pounds as Australia continues to send more supply, and exports were unchanged.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.50 ($373.35) and select up $2.57 ($343.30) with a movement of 124 loads (83.14 loads of choice, 8.07 loads of select, 15.30 loads of trim and 17.89 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before we can say what could potentially happen next week, this week's trade needs to be understood.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the breakout trade in the live cattle complex -- the feeder cattle market couldn't but help itself and trade higher as well. And not only did the market trade higher -- but it ended the day mostly $7.00 higher and pushed the spot November contract well above the market's 100-day moving average. October feeder cattle closed $5.82 higher at $343.85, November feeders closed $7.07 higher at $341.95 and January feeders closed $7.92 higher at $336.35. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady to $2.00 higher and feeder heifers sold steady. Steer calves sold $1.00 to $5.00 lower expect those weighing 400 to 500 pounds which traded $5.00 higher. Heifer calves under 500 pounds sold $5.00 to $15.00 lower but over 500 pounds traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/8/2026: up $0.34, $337.07.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts ended the day lower -- disappointed from another week of mostly lower demand. And while yes pork cutout values did close slightly higher Friday afternoon -- that is too little of support too late in the week to do any good. October lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $75.05, December lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $67.82 and February lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $69.25. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.75 with a weighted average price of $74.26 on 884 head. Pork cutouts totaled 297.81 loads with 270.69 loads of pork cuts and 27.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.86, $80.50. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 167,000 head. The CME lean hog index 10/7/2026: down $0.50, $78.41.

Friday's WASDE report shared a mixed view for the hog and pork markets of

2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as

slaughter speeds and carcass weights are lighter than anticipated. Hog prices for 2026 were decreased as pork demand continues to remain under pressure. Hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $55 (down $3.00), hog prices in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $60 (down $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $65 (down $2.00) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68.00. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by five million pounds, while hog exports were decreased by 60 million pounds.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally Aggressively

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With ample trader support, the cattle contracts are off like a rocket ship heading into Friday afternoon. Bids are on the table in the cash cattle market, but no new trade has developed just yet. December corn is down 27 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 362.03 points and the NASDAQ is up 152.26 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The wait may have been worth it, as to everyone's surprise the live cattle complex is trading robustly higher into midday Friday.Not only is the market pushing a substantial $2.00 rally in most of its nearby contracts into the afternoon, but the rally has pushed the spot December contract out of its sideways trading range, which is a bold move.October live cattle are up $2.35 at $224.22, December live cattle are up $2.80 at $226.35 and February live cattle are up $2.67 at $228.52. Following Thursday's light trade in the North at $345 (which is steady to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average), no new trade has developed yet in the fed cash cattle market, but packer interest should improve at any moment. Bids are currently on the table at $220 in Kansas, and at $218 live and $345 dressed in Nebraska.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026.Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 75 million pounds as slaughter speeds continue to be light compared to years past. Quarter steer prices were unchanged from last month's report, with steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 expected to average $235, steers in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235, steers in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235 and steers in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 85 million pounds as Australia continues to send more supply, and exports were unchanged.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.15 ($374.70) and select up $4.29 ($356.02) with a movement of 91 loads (57.93 loads of choice, 5.23 loads of select, 11.66 loads of trim and 15.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And if you think the $1.00 to $2.00 rally is exciting in the live cattle complex, take a look at the feeder cattle market, which is currently rallying $5.00 to $7.00 higher. But upon seeing the momentum in the live cattle complex, and upon seeing ample trader support, the market couldn't help but trade higher. October feeders are up $5.20 at $343.22, November feeders are up $6.42 at $341.35 and January feeders are up $7.20 at $335.72.

LEAN HOGS:

And although pork cutout values may be up slightly, it's simply too little support too late in the week to do anything meaningful at this point. October lean hogs are down $0.67 at $75.15, December lean hogs are down $0.77 at $67.82 and February lean hogs are down $0.67 at $69.20. The projected lean hog index for 10/8/2026 is down $0.80 at $77.61 and the actual index for 10/7/2026 is down $0.50 at $78.41. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.92 with a weighted average price of $74.46, ranging from $64.00 to $80.00 on 834 head and a five-day rolling average of $75.01. Pork cutouts total 201.55 loads, with 184.95 loads of pork cuts and 16.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.54, $80.18.

Friday's WASDE report shared a mixed view for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are lighter than anticipated. Hog prices for 2026 were decreased as pork demand continues to remain under pressure. Hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $55 (down $3.00), hog prices in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $60 (down $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $65 (down $2.00) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68.00. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by five million pounds, while hog exports were decreased by 60 million pounds.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - WASDE Report Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market awaits the October WASDE report to be released at 11 a.m. CDT. For beef, we saw an increase in imports between the August and September report. The market is expecting this to continue to climb as efforts persist to increase beef imports in a government effort to lower the cost of beef. Cash trade picked up demand some on Thursday after a light start to the week. Negotiated live purchases were steady to $2.00 lower with dressed purchases steady to $5.00 lower.

The lean hog futures contracts had another disappointing day on Thursday. Cutout values were down $2.07 while the Daily Direct Hog Report was up slightly at an average weighted price of $72.51. Slaughter numbers are strong, meaning pork demand needs to ramp up for further market support. Friday's WASDE could be the important piece of the puzzle to determine where the market goes into next week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Long term, tight cattle supply numbers will be difficult to change, giving support to the market for the foreseeable future.	1)	The WASDE report's import numbers for beef are expected to increase, adding to domestic supply.
2)	Cash prices for cattle have been resilient over the last couple of years despite futures volatility, showing the market is optimistic for long-term potential.	2)	Wholesale beef prices are falling, limiting futures momentum.
3)	Pork exports exceeded new sales, giving hope for shipments to remain strong going forward.	3)	Pork cutouts have dropped quickly this week, weighing heavily on futures markets.
4)	Cash hog prices were slightly higher on Thursday. If this continues, the futures market could follow suit.	4)	Federally inspected hog slaughter numbers were well above both last week's numbers as well as last year's numbers. High slaughter volumes pressure markets with a surge in pork supply.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Early Sales in the Fed Cash Cattle Market were Marked at $345 Dressed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Again, on Thursday, it was disappointing to note the decline in the livestock complex which largely was attributed to the lack of fundamental support. Some light cash cattle trade was noted in Nebraska at $345. December corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 52.66 points and the NASDAQ is down 345.35 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 13,000 mt for 2026 were down 11% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,600 mt), Japan (2,400 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 26,900 mt for 2026 were down 24% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (19,100 mt), South Korea (3,400 mt) and Japan (2,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day slightly softer -- unable to push the contracts higher without improved fundamental support. October live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $221.87, December live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $223.55 and February live cattle closed $0.70 lower at $225.85. Some light cash cattle trade developed in Nebraska at $345 which is steady to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. But otherwise the other major feeding states have yet to trade cattle. More trade will develop on Friday, especially in the South where there's been no trade done yet this week. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 101,000 head -- 8,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.77 ($374.85) and select down $2.48 ($351.73) with a movement of 131 loads (95.32 loads of choice, 20.02 loads of select, 4.42 loads of trim and 10.79 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that the North was able to hold prices mostly steady, it's likely that Southern feedlot managers will try to do the same.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also ended the day lower -- unable to gain any substantial technical position without having first the support from traders or the live cattle complex. Which is quite unfortunate given that sales were a tick stronger this afternoon in some parts of the countryside for feeder cattle. October feeders closed $0.12 lower at $338.02, November feeders closed $0.92 lower at $334.87 and January feeders closed $1.97 lower at $328.42. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, steers over 600 pounds and heifers over 650 pounds traded $20.00 higher. Steers and heifers over 850 pounds traded $5.00 higher. Steers and heifers under 650 pounds traded steady, with a softer undertone. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 78%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/7/2026: down $1.14, $336.73.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day lower and disappointed as not only did the futures market close lower -- but once again pork demand was softer as well. October lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $75.82, December lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $68.60 and February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $69.87. Hopefully Friday's WASDE report gives the market a better look at what demand could be in the quarters head. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.07 with a weighted average price of $72.51 on 761 head. Pork cutouts totaled 309.97 loads with 275.54 loads of pork cuts and 34.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.07, $79.64. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 493,000 head -- 16,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/6/2026: down $0.31, $78.91.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point packers have likely boughten the vast majority of their needs already from the cash market.