Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - JBS Plant Strike to Take Center Stage

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle finished the week lower following the pattern seen earlier in the week. Southern cattle were $4.00 to $5.00 lower, with Northern dressed cattle $8.00 lower. Unfortunately, the early expectations are for lower cash this week. The reduced slaughter pace has bolstered boxed beef values, moving packers' margins into the black. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $0.83 and select up $0.72. With margins being positive, most often packers will increase slaughter to take advantage of positive margins. However, that may not take place this week, with the strike taking place at the JBS Greeley plant and cattle being shifted to other facilities. Last week, the April live cattle futures contract had a price range of $5.72 last week, with April feeders posting a price swing of $11.72. This was rather calm considering the previous weeks. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their net-long live cattle futures positions by 6,134 contracts to 105,910. Funds were net sellers of 229 feeder cattle futures, reducing their net-long position to 18,712 contracts.

Hog futures completed three days of liquidation on Friday, which may set the stage for some buying interest to surface, which would provide support. Packers were surprisingly aggressive on Friday, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $0.43. Packers are expected to be somewhat aggressive to begin the week. Pork cutouts were down $0.10 at 100.19. Even though cutouts were slightly lower, this should not be viewed as negative due to the continued increase in the slaughter pace. Packers have been increasing slaughter to keep up with demand, and yet cutouts are trending higher. The Commitment of Traders showed fund traders adding 3,009 net-long futures contracts, increasing their long position to 120,610.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Tight cattle supplies should limit the losses in the cash market in time. Boxed beef prices have been increasing as consumers demand beef.	1)	The strike at the JBS plant will create some uncertainty and potentially lower cattle prices as slaughter will be disrupted.
2)	Cattle futures hold a significant discount to cash. If there is any evidence of stability, futures should rebound.	2)	Cattle futures may see further pressure as the market continues to see pressure from the outside markets.
3)	The strong hog slaughter pace has increased the aggressiveness of packers to purchase the hogs they need.	3)	Hog futures completed three days of liquidation, but further weakness may unfold as the market continues to correct.
4)	Hog futures have completed three days of liquidation and may find buying interest after the correction.	4)	The increased slaughter pace will keep the market supplied with pork, potentially limiting the upside potential for cutout prices.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Continues to Look for Improved Fundamentals

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed Friday afternoon as traders simply need to see better fundamental support before they'll confidently push the contracts higher. The big news that will likely rock the cattle complex on Monday is whether the expected plant strike happens at Greeley, Colorado, as JBS and the union laborers haven't agreed on a contract yet. May corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 119.38 points and the NASDAQ is down 206.62 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle down $3.67, June live cattle down $2.52; March feeder cattle down $6.15, April feeder cattle down $8.52; April lean hogs down $2.18, June lean hogs down $3.20; March corn up $0.06, May corn up $0.07.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another glum day for the live cattle complex as traders merely let the market drift lower through the day's end, seeming to acknowledge the fact that it's most likely that next week's complex will be met with another troublesome week, as the plant strike in Colorado is likely going to be the buzz of Monday's market. April live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $230.90, June live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $228.95 and August live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $226.82. The spot April contract did, unfortunately, close below its 100-day moving average, which signals that the market is soberly aware of the challenges currently affecting the complex. Throughout the week, the fed cash cattle market's trade has been light as packers haven't been as aggressive in this week's market as they're preparing for less throughput next week with the likely plant strike in Greeley. Throughout the week, Northern dressed business has been done at mostly $372, $8 lower, and Southern live business was done at mostly $235, $4 lower in Texas, and $5 lower in Kansas.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 86,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 17,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 525,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 61,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.83 ($397.92) and select up $0.72 ($391.54) with a movement of 53 loads (38.30 loads of choice, 3.09 loads of select, 5.30 loads of trim and 6.05 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. If there is a strong possibility that next week the plant in Greeley will be closed due to a labor strike, cash prices will likely suffer.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to close mixed Friday afternoon as the market was given a tick more technical support throughout the day than compared to what the live cattle complex saw. March feeders closed $1.25 higher at $349.47, April feeders closed $0.10 higher at $343.10 and May feeders closed $0.75 lower at $339.17. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $4.00 to $8.00 lower, but stocker steers traded $20.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $5.00 to $10.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded steady to $2.00 lower, lean cows sold $10.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 79%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/12/2026: down $2.62, $358.35.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower Friday afternoon as the market remained under severe technical pressure. April lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $93.45, June lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $107.37 and July lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $109.30. But without a substantial improvement in the market's fundamentals, traders were left with virtually no other option but to allow the complex to drift lower through the day's end. Hog prices closed $0.43 higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average price of $91.82 on 2,311 head. Pork cutouts totaled 205.64 loads with 173.33 loads of pork cuts and 32.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.10, $100.19. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 29,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 74,000 head. The CME lean hog index 3/11/2026: up $0.24, $91.44.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers have been slightly more aggressive in the cash market, which is why prices may hold steady early next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Summarize Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex continues mixed as traders desire to see the complex trade higher, but need widespread, consistent support before they'll be able to advance the contracts confidently. No new cash cattle trade has developed yet Friday. May corn is up 3 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 50.72 points and NASDAQ is down 116.43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is mildly higher headed into Friday's noon hour as traders are again allowing the complex to find a little technical support. Currently the spot April contract is trading above its 100-day moving average; monitoring that threshold through the day's end will be vital as traders may not keep the complex above that price-point through closing as there's not much fundamental support in the market. April live cattle are up $0.10 at $231.32, June live cattle are up $0.02 at $229.40 and August live cattle are down $0.02 at $227.25. No new cash cattle trade has developed, but a single bid is on the table at $235 in Kansas. So far this week, Northern dressed business has been done at mostly $372, $8 lower, and Southern live business was done at mostly $235, $4 lower in Texas, and $5 lower in Kansas. A few deals were noted up to $236 in some areas. It's likely trade volumes will remain light this week as there's expected to be a plant strike starting on Monday at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.16 ($397.25) and select up $0.04 ($390.86) with a movement of 28 loads (21.47 loads of choice, 2.03 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.55 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is fully higher moving into Friday's noon hour as traders seem confident allowing the contracts to scale mildly higher even though the market's fundamentals haven't been overly supportive this week. March feeders are up $1.60 at $349.62, April feeders are up $0.75 at $343.70 and May feeders are up $0.05 at $339.97. But ahead of the day's end, it wouldn't be surprising to see the market again slip below its 100-day moving average as next week is expected to face challenges with the potential plant strike in Colorado.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again trading lower. Although pork demand may be up slightly, the market doesn't have the technical support it needs. April lean hogs are down $0.77 at $93.57, June lean hogs are down $0.70 at $107.47 and July lean hogs are down $0.60 at $109.32. Helping drive the pork cutout values higher is mostly the $9.02 jump in the belly.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/12/2026 is up $0.16 at $91.60, and the actual index for 3/11/2026 is up $0.24 at $91.44. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.07 with a weighted average price of $92.09, ranging from $86.00 to $93.00 on 1,941 head and a five-day rolling average of $92.76. Pork cutouts total 121.12 loads with 98.88 loads of pork cuts and 22.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.97, $101.26.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May See Pressure Ahead of the Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded on Thursday following the trend of lower cash on Wednesday. Cash traded from $3.00 to $8.00 lower on Thursday. This pattern will be followed today as business will be accomplished for the week. It was a bit surprising that futures were higher with lower cash trade and the JBS plant strike taking place on Monday. These are not friendly fundamentals. However, some buying interest may have resulted from good beef export sales totaling 25,400 metric tons (mt), which is the highest so far this year. Packers continue to slow the slaughter pace, which is increasing boxed beef prices. Choice boxed beef was up $0.39, with select up $1.57. It may be an interesting and volatile day as traders position themselves ahead of the weekend.

Hogs may see further weakness as futures fell and closed below technical support. Traders had little to get excited about after the strong trend higher seemed to have run its course. Cash traded lower as expected, with packers having most of their needs covered. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report was down $1.50. Pork cutout values increased by $1.88. Even though pork demand is good and packers continue to run at higher slaughter speeds, the market corrected from its overbought status. Further selling pressure is expected today as liquidation may continue.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle market may have lower cash trade and the upcoming strike already factored in.	1)	The duration and the impact of the strike at the JBS Greeley plant may result in further liquidation ahead of the weekend.
2)	Boxed beef prices continue to increase as the economic market uncertainty has not reduced consumer demand.	2)	Lower cash cattle trade this week may be followed up next week with similar pressure, as packers are expected to aggressively purchase cattle for later delivery.
3)	Pork demand has been good, and it is expected to remain. Futures are correcting from being overbought. Once that is completed, the market may rebound.	3)	Hog futures have been under pressure for the past two days, with another day of liquidation expected ahead of the weekend.
4)	Hog slaughter continues to run higher than the previous week and the previous year, keeping market-ready hogs current.	4)	Hog futures broke through and closed below technical support, which may trigger further selling pressure.