Livestock Lowdown

Friday, July 10, 2026

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Rounds Out Week Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended Friday mostly lower as traders simply didn't find the support they needed this week. The cash cattle market saw a few more sales develop throughout the day, but largely the week's trade was done on Thursday. December corn is up 9 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 173.20 points and NASDAQ is up 78.11 points.

From Friday-to-Friday the livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle down $4.02, October live cattle down $3.75; August feeder cattle down $6.02, September feeder cattle down $7.45; July lean hogs up $0.93, August lean hogs up $0.25; July corn up $0.13, September corn up $0.17.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another disappointing day for the live cattle complex as the market continued its downward break. The market simply doesn't have enough support to justify trading the complex in any other direction at this point in time. August live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $235.20, October live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $230.55 and December live cattle closed $1.27 lower at $230.27. It is worth noting that today's close is the fourth consecutive close below the market's 100-day moving average in the spot August contract. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $248, which is $7.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average; Northern dressed cattle traded at $393, which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 99,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 3,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be zero head of cattle. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 529,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 42,000 head less than a year ago.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as the decrease in steer and heifer slaughter has more than offset the increase in cow slaughter. Quarterly fed steer price projections for 2026 were mostly supportive as steer prices in the third quarter are now anticipated to average $255 (up $3.00 from last month's report), steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $255 (unchanged from last month), steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $250 (unchanged from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $255. Beef imports for 2026 decreased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 also decreased by 10 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.87 ($382.68) and select up $4.84 ($368.33) with a movement of 90 loads (64.22 loads of choice, 9.92 loads of select, 5.49 loads of trim and 10.73 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers are slowly building supply and getting the market pushed lower, it's likely they'll be able to keep with that trend in the upcoming weeks.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another lower day for the feeder cattle complex as the market continues to closely mirror the direction of the live cattle complex; it didn't help that buyer demand softened late in the week too. August feeders closed $1.55 lower at $354.60, September feeders closed $1.97 lower at $351.02 and October feeders closed $1.97 lower at $347.35. The Weekly Oklahoma Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 lower and feeder heifers sold unevenly steady. Steer calves sold $7.00 to $12.00 lower, but heifer calves over 500 pounds traded $10.00 to $13.00 lower and those under 500 pounds sold steady. The auction report did note that with recent rains in the area there weren't as many buyers in the barns this week as they're busy putting up hay. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 7/9/2026: down $4.03, $370.42.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex kept with its recent trend through Friday's close as the spot and nearby contracts managed to close higher, but by and large the rest of the complex ended the day softer. July lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $94.77, August lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $99.00 and October lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $85.07. The market's resistance at $100 in the spot August contract remains a stiff barrier traders simply aren't willing to face at this time. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.25 with a weighted average price of $98.30 on 3,664 head. Pork cutouts totaled 309.89 loads with 284.70 loads of pork cuts and 25.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.53, $101.34. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 452,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 28,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 23,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/8/2026: up $0.37, $92.35.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the pork and hog markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 40 million pounds as slaughter speeds in the second half of the year are anticipated. Quarterly price projections for 2026 were decreased as hogs in the third quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $69 (down $2.00 from last month's report), hogs in the fourth quarter are anticipated to average $58 (down $4.00 from last month), hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month) and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by 25 million pounds and pork exports for 2026 were decreased by 15 million pounds.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were extremely active in this week's cash hog market and how next week's trade pans out will likely be determined on whether or not they secured enough inventory this week

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed heading into Friday's noon hour as traders simply don't have enough immediate support to keep the contracts from trailing lower. No new cash cattle trade has developed following Thursday's business. December corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 84.71 points and NASDAQ is up 52.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Yes, midday boxed beef prices may be trading higher -- but that's not enough support to offset the $7.00 to $10.00 decline seen in this week's fed cash cattle market to help ease trader concerns. August live cattle are down $0.55 at $234.70, October live cattle are down $1.30 at $230.30 and December live cattle are down $1.42 at $230.12. No new cash cattle trade has developed following Thursday's trade. Southern live deals were marked at $248, $7 lower than last week's weighted averages, and Northern dressed deals were marked at mostly $393, $10 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. No bids are on the table currently and it's likely the bulk of this week's trade is done.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.09 ($383.90) and select up $6.16 ($369.65) with a movement of 61 loads (46.31 loads of choice, 5.46 loads of select, 2.58 loads of trim and 6.67 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without seeing support from the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower. August feeders are down $2.65 at $353.50, September feeders are down $2.70 at $350.30 and October feeders are down $2.25 at $347.07. It's most likely at this point the market will continue with its downward trend through Friday's close.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed again as the market wants to move higher but needs buy-in from traders to conquer the market's resistance at $100 in the spot August contract before that will happen. A couple of the nearby contracts are trading higher, but by and large the vast majority of the deferred contracts are trading lower. July lean hogs are up $0.40 at $94.75, August lean hogs are up $0.62 at $98.77 and October lean hogs are down $0.75 at $84.90. The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.11 with a weighted average price of $96.84, ranging from $94.00 to $99.00 on 1,871 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.92. Pork cutouts total 206.84 loads with 190.35 loads of pork cuts and 16.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.02, $101.83.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash May Trigger Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Early cattle trade held some optimism that cash trade would not be as low as some had feared. However, that was not the case as Southern live cattle traded $7.00 lower and Northern dressed traded $10.00 lower. The downtrend in cattle remains intact with further liquidation possible. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $0.39 and select up $0.40. Feedlots face a decision whether they sell the cattle that they intended to sell this week or hold for another week and risk possible lower prices next week. Packers may be able to surround themselves with more cattle this week to increase their leverage next week.

Pork cutout values have been trending higher and have provided support to the market. Hogs may finally have found the support that had been anticipated for quite some time. Hog slaughter has been strong, indicating good demand. Cash has been slowly improving, but packers have not had to be very aggressive to purchase what they require to maintain the slaughter pace. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.74 on Thursday. Pork cutout values increased $0.65. Hog futures have developed an uptrend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have moved into an oversold status, which could trigger some short-covering into the weekend.	1)	Packers are likely to increase cattle purchases at lower prices, putting them in a better position for next week.
2)	Selling this week may have been overdone and may subside today. The recent weakness may be viewed as a buying opportunity.	2)	Continued lower cash cattle trade today may put further pressure on futures as traders continue to liquidate long positions.
3)	Hog futures have developed an uptrend that may be maintained as pork cutouts trend higher.	3)	Packers are expected to be less aggressive today as they have most of their needs purchased for the week.
4)	Hog weights are decreasing partly due to summer weather and hogs being pulled forward due to the strong slaughter pace.	4)	There is little reason for traders to turn bullish on the hog market anytime soon. There are sufficient hogs available for demand, leaving the cash market choppy.

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Early Cash Cattle Trade is Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended Thursday mixed as the cattle contracts closed lower but the lean hog contracts found support. There was some light cash cattle trade noted at $248 in the South (down $7.00 from last week's weighted average) and some Northern dressed cattle traded at $393 (which is down $10.00 from last week's weighted average). December corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 139.02 points and NASDAQ is up 336.24 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,000 mt for 2026 were primarily for Japan (4,200 mt), South Korea (3,200 mt) and Taiwan (1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 17,700 mt for 2026 were down 53% from the previous week and 32% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,500 mt), Japan (4,600 mt) and Canada (1,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex again ended the day lower as traders simply weren't shown enough reason or support to do anything else with the market. Because with boxed beef prices and cash prices both traded in an unsupportive manner, the market's fundamental support was again minimal. August live cattle closed $2.37 lower at $235.25, October live cattle closed $1.95 lower at $231.60 and December live cattle closed $2.10 lower at $231.55. There was some light cash cattle trade noted at $248 in the South (down $7.00 from last week's weighted average) and some Northern dressed cattle traded at $393 (which is down $10.00 from last week's weighted average). Both regions have only seen a handful of cattle trade thus far this week, so there's a chance still the week's trend compared to last week could change.

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.39 ($380.81) and select up $0.40 ($363.49) with a movement of 86 loads (67.84 loads of choice, 6.30 loads of select, 5.93 loads of trim and 5.46 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that some cattle have already traded at lower money, the week's trend will likely remain lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also fell subject to pressure Thursday and ended the day sharply lower with prices closing mostly $5.00 lower. August feeders closed $5.90 lower at $356.15, September feeders closed $5.65 lower at $353.00 and October feeders closed $5.30 lower at $349.32. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers weighing 650 to 950 pounds sold $10.00 to $25.00 higher. Spayed heifers sold at a $5.00 to $10.00 premium. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 97%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 7/8/2026: up $3.70, $374,45.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to end the day mostly higher, although a couple of the nearby contracts still closed weaker. It's been incredibly supportive to not only see packers more aggressive in the cash market but to also see greater consumer demand this week. July lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $94.32, August lean hogs closed $1.50 lower at $98.15 and October lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $85.65. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.74 with a weighted average price of $97.05 on 10,857 head. Pork cutouts totaled 193.89 loads with 163.15 loads of pork cuts and 30.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.65, $98.81. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 31,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/7/2026: up $0.32, $91.98.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have been extremely aggressive in this week's cash market and won't likely be as aggressive on Friday.