Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - CME to Launch a Beef Trim Contract

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The June live cattle contract went off the board on a positive note Tuesday, settling at $258.20. The discount held by the August contract increased further on Tuesday and was about $16.00 below the June. This could point to strength as time moves forward and the cash market holds where it currently is. Some of the recent selling might have been due to it being the end of the month and the end of the quarter, as fund traders took some profits to close out their books. If that were the case, they may renew buying Wednesday. Cash cattle have not yet traded and may not trade Wednesday either. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.72 and select down $2.50. CME will launch beef trim futures and options tied to 50% lean and 90% lean trim, the key inputs used to make ground beef, hamburgers and meatballs. It signals beef price volatility has become big enough that CME sees demand for a more precise risk-management product beyond live cattle and feeder cattle futures. The contract will begin on July 20.

Hog futures did not show much volatility Tuesday with traders finding little to move the market significantly. Futures have seen greater support in the nearby month and have developed a slight uptrend. Later contracts continue to remain in a sideways pattern. Packers have been more aggressive with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $4.14 on good volume. Packers wanted to purchase hogs early due to the upcoming holiday weekend. The aggressive buying may be finished with lower cash prices expected Wednesday. Unfortunately, pork cutout values declined $2.17.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have declined for three consecutive days. Now that it is a new month, traders may step back in to purchase more aggressively.	1)	With July 4 demand being met, beef prices may slide further as we move into the dog days of summer.
2)	The August live cattle contract continues to hold a large discount to cash. Futures may move higher to narrow the gap.	2)	Cattle futures may see further weakness as the market is not receiving continued bullish news.
3)	Nearby hog futures are trending higher as some near-term fundamentals may be showing positive signs.	3)	Later hog contracts have not been able to break out of the sideways trading pattern; a break below that level would trigger further selling.
4)	Cash hogs are showing increased support, with the weighted average on Tuesday moving to $97.58.	4)	Pork cutouts have not seen consistent support, which is needed for traders to turn bullish.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Soften to End June

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle futures were the main focus through most of Tuesday's trading session, with active triple-digit losses seen through the entire trading day. Although feeder cattle contracts recovered slightly from session lows seen during the morning trade, the swift shift from last week's highs continues to add uncertainty not only to the feeder cattle complex but to the entire cattle market. Live cattle futures followed the feeder cattle market lower, although losses were much more subdued in most contract months. Although spot month June contracts closed higher on the last day of June, most of this price support developed from position squaring ahead of the end of the month and quarter in the expiring contracts. Limited activity is also expected in the next couple of trading sessions across all livestock markets, with trade closed Friday for the Fourth of July Holiday, leaving general trade activity limited throughout the week. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $4.14 with a weighted average of $97.58 on 9,679 hogs. September corn closed up 6 1/2 at $4.168 and July soybean meal closed steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 135.07 at 52,317.81.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures followed the feeder cattle complex lower in all contract months except the front month June contract, which is expiring. August futures led the market lower with a $1.15 per cwt loss, moving to $2.42 per cwt for the day. This move pushed prices below the 40-day moving average for the first time in 2 weeks, adding to underlying technical market concern across the entire complex. Despite the strong support in beef cutout values in the morning report, traders still seem cautious at best to actively step back into the market. June contracts closed at $258.20 per cwt, nearly $16 per cwt above the upcoming front month August contracts. This contract roll will adjust chart levels, creating additional chart uncertainty for those strictly focused on technical and chart direction when entering or exiting the market. End-of-the-month and quarter trade adjustments and positioning were likely the main order of business Tuesday, while overall trade volume was already extremely subdued due to holiday week absences.

Cash markets remain at a near standstill, with asking prices and bids still unavailable in all areas of cattle country. It is likely that interest is expected to develop sooner rather than later, ahead of markets remaining closed Friday and the upcoming Fourth of July Holiday. But for now, both sides continue to wait for a move from the other side. June live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $258.2, August live cattle closed $1.15 lower at $242.425 and October live cattle closed $0.73 lower at $236.65. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head, steady with a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.72 ($393.16) and select down $2.50 ($371.68) with a movement of 102.20 loads (67.52 loads of choice, 18.78 loads of select, 5.56 loads of trim and 10.34 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady, Limited activity is expected early Wednesday morning, although interest from both sides is likely to develop sometime during the day Wednesday based on the desire to wrap up business before the Fourth of July Holiday Weekend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures turned lower once again Tuesday. The good news in the market, if there was any throughout the session, is that prices were able to bounce off of session lows seen early in the Tuesday trading session. But this still continues to add uncertainty through the entire complex as prices have quickly eroded from last week's highs, and the aggressive nature of the recent pressure could leave room for additional market weakness. Even with the recent market pullback, prices are still firmly above both the 40-day and 100-day moving averages, which is keeping many traders positive about potential market support. But the strong move higher in prices over the past several months is still keeping prices focused on just how much additional support may develop despite the extremely tight cattle and beef supplies. Traders are now expected to step back into the complex Wednesday morning with a new month and quarter on the books. This could help to create some additional optimism through the market, but the limited holiday trade seen this week could limit significant market activity and price support. August feeders closed $2.88 lower at $364.6, September feeders closed $3.23 lower at $362.525 and October feeders closed $3.28 lower at $359.65. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 26: down $0.59, $379.92.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures ended the trading session similar to where traders entered the Tuesday trading day, mixed with very little sense of significant market shifts. In July through October contracts posted moderate end-of-the-month gains, while deferred futures still posted additional pressure based on concerns that long-term demand for pork may not easily develop. Given that prices are at or near yearlong market lows, traders seemed to be more focused on end-of-the-month and quarter position adjustments, rather than any fundamental or long-term technical trade direction. This allowed prices to still hover well below the 40-day moving average, with concerns that global demand for pork and export markets may remain uncertain at best through the rest of the summer. July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $94.325, August lean hogs closed $0.93 higher at $98.2 and October lean hogs closed $0.48 higher at $82.00. Tuesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head, 7,000 head fewer than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 248.73 loads with 222.09 loads of pork cuts and 26.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $2.17 at $95.49. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 26: down $0.14, $91.41.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Limited long-term direction or aggressive cash buying is expected with the end-of-week holiday break approaching. Packers will likely focus on immediate needs, pushing off longer-term buying activity until early next week.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle May Trade Early

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures followed through on Friday's weakness. The reaction might have come from the weakness in boxed beef on Friday or that Southern live cattle traded $1.00 lower last week. There is also the possibility that the market is tired, and without continued new bullish news, a period of liquidation might take place. However, fundamentals remain supportive, and a retracement may be short-lived. Today is the last day for the June live cattle contract, with August taking over as the lead month and carrying a substantial discount to the expiring June contract. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $0.41 and select up $2.60.

Hog futures were under pressure from the start, but found buying interest at the lows, resulting in the July and August contracts posting gains while later contracts closed lower, but well off their lows. Trader buying interest surfaced as contracts bounced from support. The indication is that cash may have been stronger, as quite a few hogs traded on the negotiated market. However, prices were not released due to packer submission issues. Packers are expected to be aggressive again today as they intend to purchase hogs earlier rather than later due to the upcoming holiday weekend. Pork cutout values increased $2.29 from the previous day, which may provide support to the market today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The August live cattle contract takes over as the lead month later today and is carrying a substantial discount to the June contract. This discount may be reduced.	1)	The cattle market has been unable to revisit and move to new highs. Price resistance may be building with little new bullish news.
2)	Lower fuel prices with crude oil trading down to pre-war levels leave more disposable income for consumers, which may keep beef consumption strong.	2)	Early indications are that cash cattle may trade lower this week, resulting in further liquidation of futures.
3)	Hog futures held support and rebounded, providing the indication the market may have found a bottom.	3)	Hog futures remain sideways, and a break below the lows could trigger further selling pressure.
4)	Packers were aggressive with purchases on Monday and may be that way again today. This may provide further support to futures.	4)	The hog market lacks solid support, which may leave the market floundering in a sideways pattern.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lower Tones Kept With the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lackadaisical Monday for the livestock complex, with little trader interest trickling into the sector. New showlists appear to be higher in Kansas, slightly lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Texas. July corn is down 10 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 306.63 points and the NASDAQ is up 522.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day lower as trader support never developed for the market. This week's trade could likely be rather uneventful as traders may already be checked out for the long Fourth of July holiday weekend. August live cattle closed $2.25 lower at $243.57, October live cattle closed $1.82 lower at $237.37 and December live cattle closed $1.55 lower at $236.95. New showlists appear to be higher in Kansas, slightly lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $408 to $410, which is $1.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $258, which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.41 ($391.44) and select up $2.60 ($374.18) with a movement of 74 loads (44.56 loads of choice, 12.75 loads of select, 7.73 loads of trim and 9.10 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. It's tough telling what this week's trade will amount to, as it will really all depend on how short bought packers are. If they feel comfortable with their inventory, then prices will likely be softer, but if they're still in need of more cattle, prices could be higher as they don't want to forgo being able to market beef to retailers when demand is high.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And in keeping with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts ended the day lower, too. August feeders closed $2.37 lower at $367.47, September feeders closed $1.92 lower at $365.75 and October feeders closed $1.67 lower at $362.92. Most feeder cattle sales have been canceled this week for the Fourth of July holiday. The CME feeder cattle index 6/26/2026: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with a couple of the nearby contracts ending the day higher while the rest of the deferred contracts ended the day lower. July lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $93.82, August lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $97.27 and October lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $81.52. Today's action seems to be a flip-flop of the moves made last week, as the deferred contracts were stronger following Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, but today, traders simply weren't willing to advance the nearby contracts with pork cutout values weaker at the day's end. Hog prices were not available on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that 5,703 head traded throughout the day and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $96.59. Pork cutouts totaled 247.29 loads with 211.72 loads of pork cuts and 35.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.29, $97.66. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 29,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/25/2026: down $0.23, $91.55.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers will likely be more aggressive earlier this week as opposed to later in the week, prices could be a touch higher on Tuesday.