Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Retract Early Week Gains

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Strong triple-digit losses in live cattle and feeder cattle trade Thursday morning have focused on a combination of issues, all pointing to a jittery market at previous price levels. News of workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado, planning to strike seemed to be the major point of focus through the morning. This will affect about 5,000 head of cattle processed daily by the plant. Given the current structure, it is not unlikely any committed cattle can be absorbed into the system. But the focus on plants readjusting positions seems to be focusing on long-term plant viability given the extensive negative margins in the processing industry at this point. This market shift is not only affecting live cattle trade but is pushing feeder cattle futures sharply lower. Light pressure is seen in lean hog market, based primarily on weakness in outside markets Thursday. March corn is up 4 1/2 at $4.34 and March soybean meal is up $7.70 at $303.9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 406.44 at 49,094.86.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are quickly backing away from part of early week gains Thursday morning. Losses of $4 to $5 per cwt are seen at midday, creating some concern that additional sharp losses may continue to develop over the coming days. The news focus seems to be pointed to the processing reduction seen in the JBS Greeley plant based on reported impending strikes at the plant. The likelihood that this will have a major impact on overall industry processing capacity beyond a few days is limited given the current structure of the market and current overall company and industry availability. This industry is not beyond rerouting trucks to other plants or companies in order to sustain needs and capacity levels. But watching daily slaughter rates through the month of February will help give an indicator of overall capacity levels. Firm pressure in outside markets and weaker beef values cannot be downplayed in the hesitancy for futures buyers to step into a market which very well could have run out of oxygen at current price levels. Cash cattle markets are still sluggish with a few bids on the table in parts of Iowa, and a major packer has offered to "call in" for $378 in eastern Nebraska. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses, but significant trade volume will likely be delayed until later today and/or Friday. February live cattle are $3.08 lower at $237.45, April live cattle are $3.88 lower at $237.925, June live cattle are $3.13 lower at $234.10. 

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.82 ($367.20) and select down $1.08 ($361.01) with a movement of 48.79 loads (38.54 loads of choice, 4.14 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are leading the market lower Thursday. This market move seems like a general reversal to early week buyer support that flooded the market during trade Monday and Tuesday. The news cycle focus in the market seems to be centered on the developing strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, but this move is likely much more focused on the ability to sustain additional buyer support at current price levels. Nearby futures have rallied nearly $70 per cwt since the November low, creating a generally unchecked upward market surge within the entire cattle market. This lack of small to moderate corrections can make any market vulnerable, including the cattle market which is focusing on tight supplies. In comparison to the wild shifts seen last fall, these $4 to $5 per cwt swings seem generally tame. But it does create significant uncertainty given how lightly traded the feeder cattle market remains with generally light volume. March feeders are $4.50 lower at $365.575, April feeders are $4.80 lower at $362.7 and May feeders are $5.53 lower at $358.225.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures have been the quiet market through the entire livestock complex Thursday morning. Spot February futures are leading the market lower with light pressure, while very narrow losses are seen through the rest of the contracts. The continued upward move higher in nearby futures since hitting seasonal lows in November have continued to move prices well above the 40-day moving average. Recent volatility in cattle trade seems to have lost its short-term impact on hog traders at this moment as traders continue to look for continued strong demand support as 2026 develops. At current price levels and comparative price relationships to beef, the pork industry seems well insulated to potential economic pressure that may develop over the coming weeks and months. February lean hogs are $0.73 lower at $87.275, April lean hogs are $0.35 lower at $98.1 and May lean hogs are $0.15 lower at $101.60. Hog prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork cutouts totaled 136.75 loads with 120.22 loads of pork cuts and 16.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.69 at $95.00.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May See Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

March feeder cattle futures reached up and nearly closed the chart gap. That will likely be accomplished in the near term, but futures may see a retracement Thursday as traders wait for the cash cattle trade. Optimism remains over higher cash this week, but the extent of the increase is uncertain. Futures have already factored in higher prices. Boxed beef prices took a hit Wednesday, with choice down $2.09 and select down $5.14. Packers are desperately hoping feedlots will need to move cattle. However, feedlots have no interest in selling cattle at lower prices, leaving packers with no choice but to pay more. There was an article in the Western Farm Press Daily stating that the New World screwworm was detected in Florida. It was discovered in a horse imported from Argentina that underwent routine inspection at an import quarantine facility. This was reported earlier this week, but was not a threat due to the discovery. It does underscore the importance of vigilance. The USDA AFIS website reports there is no NWS currently in the U.S.

Hog futures took a little breather Wednesday, but not until they first made new contract highs again. Both the June and July contracts initially pushed above $112 before pulling back. Only the April contract closed higher. Follow-through weakness may continue Thursday due to the substantial decline of pork cutouts. Cutout values fell $4.37 due to a huge decline in bellies of $19.49. Ribs declined $5.74, and butts were down $3.54. Cash was higher, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $0.45. Packers will likely pull back in their buying aggressiveness as they may have purchased most of the hogs required for the week. Weekly hog weight declined to 291.6 pounds last week, supporting the anticipated decline in weights.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher cash cattle trade is expected and should continue to support the market.	1)	The market already has higher cash trade factored in. It may pull back ahead of cash trade, or even if cash is higher after the trade takes place.
2)	Feeder cattle are being purchased at a premium to cash by feedlots as they have difficulty finding sufficient animals to keep feedlots full.	2)	The decline in boxed beef prices on Wednesday may be a cause for concern, as it may indicate prices have reached a threshold.
3)	Weekly hog weights were 291.6 pounds, down 1.5 pounds from the previous week. This trend is expected to continue in the near term.	3)	Weekly hog weights at 291.6 pounds remain 0.9 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	New contract highs were made in hogs before futures pulled back. The trend remains higher as traders are bullish on the market.	4)	The huge decline in pork cutouts on Wednesday eliminated a lot of what has been gained recently. This is cause for concern.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Higher While Hogs Pull Back

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts ended the day mixed, with the lean hog contracts closing lower while the cattle contracts kept their higher position. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and asking prices still aren't established for the week. March corn is up 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 260.31 points and the NASDAQ is down 350.61 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex again closed higher as traders continue to believe in the market's long-term fundamental strength. February live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $240.52, April live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $241.80 and June live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $237.22. Still no cash cattle trade has developed as feedlot managers are more than happy to wait the week out, as they know fed cash cattle supplies are thin and packers need more cattle. Bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point, and trade will likely be delayed until Friday. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.69 ($368.02) and select down $5.14 ($362.09) with 101 loads (61.93 loads of choice, 9.08 loads of select, 14.74 loads of trim and 14.98 loads of trim).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With market-ready supplies thin, prices will likely be higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the support of the live cattle contracts trading higher, and the assumption that fed cash cattle prices could trade higher later this week, too, the market felt more than confident to trade the contracts higher. March feeders closed $2.15 higher at $370.07, April feeders closed $1.62 higher at $367.50 and May feeders closed $1.35 higher at $363.75. At this point, the market has fully recovered the technical position lost during the late October crash. At the Bassett Livestock Auction in Bassett, Nebraska, compared to last week, steers weighing 550 pounds traded $4.00 higher and steers weighing 700 to 750 pounds traded mostly $11.00 higher. Heifers weighing 500 to 650 pounds traded unevenly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 64%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/3/2026: up $0.44, $374.57.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the lean hog complex desired to push higher and close higher, the market grew leery of doing so as pork cutout values declined today. April lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $98.45, June lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $110.57 and July lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $111.35. Until pork cutout values improve, traders may hold the market back as opposed to letting it creep higher. Hog prices closed $0.45 higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average price of $86.82 on 3,522 head. Pork cutouts totaled 302.25 loads with 269.29 loads of pork cuts and 32.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.37, $93.00. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, 11,000 head more than a week and a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/2/2026: up $0.12, $85.83.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have mostly filled their cash needs for the week and won't be very aggressive in the cash market the rest of the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - With Fundamental Support, Livestock Contracts Scale Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been another prosperous morning for the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading fully higher into Wednesday's noon hour. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but it's assumed prices will be higher again this week as the board's been incredibly supportive and market's fundamentals point to higher prices as market-ready supplies of cattle are thin. March corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $6.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 311.56 points and NASDAQ is down 269.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to rally aggressively into Wednesday's noon hour as the market is robustly supported by strong fundamentals. Aside from last week's bullish Cattle Inventory report, and the rally seen in last week's fed cash cattle market, the market knows market-ready supplies of cattle are thin right now and fed cash cattle prices are likely to continue to scale higher through at the least the first quarter of the year. The rekindled flame of the market's strong fundamentals has helped drive a notable rally in the futures complex too. February live cattle are up $0.47 at $240.82, April live cattle are up $1.12 at $242.70 and June live cattle are up $1.35 at $237.97. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's most likely business will be delayed until Thursday or Friday. Both bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.57 ($370.14) and select down $0.52 ($366.71) with a movement of 58 loads (36.60 loads of choice, 3.81 loads of select, 10.18 loads of trim and 7.11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is again charging higher into the day's noon hour as the market is feeling well supported by the industry's strong fundamentals and is also comforted to see the live cattle contracts trading higher as well. March feeders are up $2.57 at $370.50, April feeders are up $2.20 at $368.07 and May feeders are up $1.77 at $364.00. So long as the live cattle contracts continue to scale higher through the afternoon, it's likely feeder cattle contracts will do so as well.

LEAN HOGS:

It's a full-fledged break-out day for the lean hog complex as the spot April contract scales to new contract highs as demand has been plentiful and the market isn't fearful of grinding higher. April lean hogs are up $1.45 at $99.60, June lean hogs are up $0.95 at $111.82 and July lean hogs are up $0.67 at $112.50. Even though midday pork cutout values are a tick lower, the market seems to be finding comfort in demand which has been strong in recent trading days.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.02 with a weighted average price of $86.29, ranging from $82.00 to $88.00 on 2,480 head and a five-day rolling average of $85.49. Pork cutouts total 179.51 loads with 159.35 loads of pork cuts and 20.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.84, $93.53.