Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Should Find Continued Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The higher cash cattle trade last week was not enough to move cattle futures to new highs. There was an expected reaction to the Cattle on Feed report, but futures could not hold the early highs of the day. The question now is whether futures can retest and break through contract highs. The current fundamentals would suggest that it will be the case. However, will demand continue to support the market? With fuel prices declining, there is good potential that demand will remain strong despite high beef prices. Boxed beef closed higher on Monday, with choice up $1.69 and select up $3.51. Feeder cattle continue to see strong demand at auctions, with premiums being paid in some cases. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders adding 13,733 long positions in live cattle, bringing their net long to 122,805 contracts. They added 1,964 long positions to feeder cattle, bringing their net long to 13,356.

Hog futures tried to maintain the gains from Thursday, but succumbed to selling pressure. Futures remained in the recent sideways pattern, but could not find sufficient buying interest to turn the market higher. The fundamentals do not paint a strong picture of support, much less a change in trend. Packers began the week aggressively, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $3.86. Cash is expected to be higher again today. However, pork cutout values declined by $0.69. Traders continue to have difficulty being bullish with variable demand. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders as net sellers of 4,179 futures contracts, moving their net-short position to 28,640.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Fund traders added to their long positions on the Commitment of Traders report. Liquidation is short lived.	1)	Cattle futures were not able to maintain strength on Monday, closing well off their highs. There seems to be price resistance at these levels.
2)	Packers need to maintain slaughter to meet demand. They cannot afford to hold for lower cash and risk being short bought.	2)	Consumers may have reached a threshold of how much they are willing to pay for beef. Further strength may be difficult to achieve.
3)	Hog futures have been able to maintain the recent sideways pattern and may be building support.	3)	Hogs have maintained recent support, but have not been able to retrace the losses seen in May. Fundamental support has been difficult to develop.
4)	Hog slaughter has been higher than a year ago, and now weights are decreasing. The market may begin pulling hogs forward.	4)	Hog futures are at risk of moving below support if consistent fundamental support does not develop.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Markets Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With more than enough support pouring into the cattle complex, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were able to end the day stronger. New showlists appear to be higher in all major feeding states. July corn is down 6 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 148.01 points and the NASDAQ is down 351.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With traders willing to look past last week's Cattle on Feed report, and willing to pay more attention to the uptick of last week's fed cash cattle trade and the strength currently being seen in the equity markets, the live cattle contracts successfully ended the day higher. June live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $255.82, August live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $247.35 and October live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $241.00. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be higher in all major feeding states.

Last week, both live and dressed deals waited to develop until Friday, but Southern live cattle traded at mostly $258 to $260, which is $2.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $408 to $410, but mostly at $408, which is $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice up $1.69 ($396.06) and select up $3.51 ($375.59) with a movement of 79 loads (55.80 loads of choice, 4.77 loads of select, 8.58 loads of trim and 10.07 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers seem short bought, it's likely they'll be active again in this week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had a splendid day, when the contracts rallied anywhere from $2.00 to $4.00 higher, thanks to the added support that the market is currently seeing. But with the technical support of the board's uptick, to the fundamental support currently being seen as fed cattle trade higher, and as feeder cattle demand sees a renewal, the market is chock-full of support right now. August feeder cattle closed $3.82 higher at $370.42, September feeders closed $4.15 higher at $358.82 and October feeders closed $4.27 higher at $366.02. At the Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers over 800 pounds traded $5.00 to $15.00 higher, while those under 800 pounds traded $1.00 to $3.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $5.00 to $15.00 higher. Steer calves sold $8.00 to $15.00 higher. Heifer calves traded $10.00 to $20.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/19/2026: up $1.88, $370.56.

LEAN HOGS:

Without enough support, the lean hog contracts stalled out ahead of Monday's close. July lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $94.65, August lean hogs closed steady at $96.72 and October lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $80.85. Unfortunately, until pork demand improves, it's unlikely that traders are going to break through the market's current trading range. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.86 with a weighted average price of $97.77 on 2,026 head. Pork cutouts total 232.17 loads with 208.95 loads of pork cuts and 23.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.69, $96.08. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/18/2026: down $0.27, $92.17.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. With pork cutout values lower at Monday's end, the cash market may not see much of an improvement on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Run Higher at the Week's Start

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the help of strong equity markets, and the fact that last week's fed cash cattle market traded higher, the cattle contracts are trading higher into Monday's noon hour. New showlists appear to be higher in all major feeding states. July corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 154.78 points and NASDAQ is down 329.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

I personally was worried that Friday's Cattle on Feed report was going to be absorbed in a bearish manner by the market, given the fact that we currently sit with a greater number of cattle on feed than compared to a year ago, and our marketings continue to dwindle. But thankfully on Friday (when the markets were closed), packers and feedlot managers hashed out last week's fed cash cattle trade and lo and behold, prices ended up being anywhere from $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Couple the cash cattle market's recent success with the fact that the equity markets are trading higher, and traders have been willing to look beyond last week's COF report and allow the live cattle contracts to trade higher. June live cattle are up $0.92 at $255.72, August live cattle are up $0.42 at $247.05 and October live cattle are up $0.65 at $240.62. New showlists appear to be higher in all major feeding states.

Last week, both live and dressed deals waited to develop until Friday, but Southern live cattle traded at mostly $258 to $260, which is $2.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $408 to $410, but mostly at $408, which is $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.24 ($395.61) and select up $1.86 ($373.94) with a movement of 42 loads (28.42 loads of choice, 2.35 loads of select, 6.24 loads of trim and 5.18 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are continuing to trade higher as the market feels well supported by a number of different fronts right now. August feeder cattle are up $3.27 at $369.87, September feeders are up $3.60 at $368.27 and October feeders are up $3.75 at $365.50. And as long as the live cattle contracts continue to rally through the day's end, it's likely that the feeder cattle contracts will do the same.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts, meanwhile, are trading mixed as traders would like to think with midday pork cutout values higher that the contracts should be able to scale higher too, but with the contracts at resistance levels, traders are remaining cautious. Not to mention, demand has been fickle in recent weeks and traders want to see more than one single day's worth of higher prices before they become too bullish. July lean hogs are down $0.07 at $94.90, August lean hogs are up $0.47 at $97.20 and October lean hogs are up $0.27 at $81.60. The projected lean hog index for 6/19/2026 is down $0.67 at $91.77 and the actual index for 6/17/2026 is up $0.01 at $92.44. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report are not available because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 195 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $96.65. Pork cutouts total 133.55 loads with 116.00 loads of pork cuts and 17.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.21, $96.98.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Expected to Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle traders thought it was best to take some profit off the table ahead of the Cattle on Feed report and the extended weekend. There was really little to be concerned over with the Cattle on Feed report, as most of the reports may show a knee-jerk reaction if the report is negative, only to regain support in time. Without the herd rebuilding, it is unlikely there is much downside to the market. But anything can happen over a three-day weekend, and taking a profit to reduce exposure was prudent. The news concerning the New World screwworm has been taken in stride and has not impacted the market as had been feared. The Cattle on Feed report was released and is neutral to slightly bullish. On feed on June 1 was 102% and slightly below the average estimate of 102.3%. Placements in May were at 90% and below the trade estimate of 92.8%. This would be considered bullish. However, marketings totaled 88% and was below the average estimate of 89.0%. This is considered slightly bearish and balanced the report. Boxed beef was mixed on Friday, with choice up $0.45 and select down $2.67. Live cattle sales on Friday ranged from $258 to $260.

Hog traders found little direction on Thursday, resulting in a mixed market at the close. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report on Friday showed cash down $3.28 as packers pulled back to finish purchases for the week. Pork cutouts provided some offset to cash weakness, posting a gain of $3.06. Pork butts jumped $13.64, with bellies gaining $6.81. Futures are struggling to maintain support, but traders are having a difficult time finding it, much less enough to turn the trend higher.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle placements in May were below the trade estimates and may provide support to the market.	1)	Cattle marketings in May were below the trade estimates. Packers have been reducing slaughter, resulting in heavier-weight cattle.
2)	The cash cattle trade was supportive to the market, indicating that demand is not slowing and packers remain aggressive.	2)	Cattle futures may find resistance at the highs. This may be a level at which selling interest will be strong.
3)	Hog futures seem to be building technical support. Futures have been trading sideways for the past week as traders do not want to press the market lower.	3)	Traders seem to be supporting hog futures at the low, but have little reason to buy aggressively into the market.
4)	Pork demand remains strong as increased slaughter has been readily absorbed.	4)	Even with higher slaughter rates, packers continue to have sufficient hog supplies. This leaves them less aggressive in the cash market.