Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts Close Lower While Cash Prices Trend Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed with the cattle contracts unwilling to do anything but trade lower, meanwhile the lean hog complex finally came into some support. July corn is down 1 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.60. A light trade was noted in the North at $402 which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average and some Southern live cattle traded at $256 to $257 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 313.62 points and the NASDAQ is down 32.74 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was simply one of those days. One of those days where you feel as though the market is broke because as one side of the complex heads higher, the other jumps ship and heads lower, as if the market's technical and fundamental facets aren't tied together at all. And that's exactly what happened throughout the cattle complex today as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed lower amid a find jump in the fed cash cattle complex. At the day's open the live cattle contracts plummeted, and traders were hell-bent on keeping the contracts lower from there on out, regardless of what developed in the cash market. June live cattle closed $3.42 lower at $250.05, August live cattle closed $3.00 lower at $245.90 and October live cattle closed $3.75 lower at $239.97. Meanwhile, a light trade was noted in the North at $402 which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average and some Southern live cattle traded at $256 to $257 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.68 ($386.94) and select down $5.21 ($384.42) with a movement of 107 loads (70.96 loads of choice, 4.82 loads of select, 24.48 loads of trim and 6.79 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that trade has now developed in both regions it's likely that the week's weighted averages are set.

FEEDER CATTLE:

And as the market has consistently done in recent weeks, the feeder cattle contracts followed the live cattle market lower through Thursday's end. May feeders closed $6.07 lower at $366.32, August feeders closed $6.87 lower at $366.17 and September feeders closed $6.65 lower at $364.65. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, steers over 750 pounds traded steady to $10.00 higher and steers weighing 550 to 750 pounds sold steady to $15.00 higher. Heifers weighing 500 to 650 pounds sold $10.00 lower to $10.00 higher, but heifers over 650 pounds weren't well tested. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 51%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/6/2026: down $2.90, $372.29.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex kept with its mixed trend as the nearby contracts ended the day slightly lower, but the vast majority of the deferred contracts ended the day on a higher note. June lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $99.37, July lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $102.95 and August lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $104.10. Pork demand was a tick stronger throughout the day, which could have partially given traders some of the support they needed to trade the contracts higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.89 with a weighted average price of $90.70 on 513 head. Pork cutouts total 278.36 loads with 249.02 loads of pork cuts and 29.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.05, $95.60. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/5/2026: up $0.09, $91.19.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely bought all the cash hogs they're going to buy for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Drift Lower While Hog Contracts Find Mixed Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Although there have been some positive developments in the fed cash cattle market, that has yet to benefit the cattle contracts, as currently both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading lower into midday Thursday. Some light trade has been marked in the North at $402, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some light trade has been noted in the South at $256 to $257, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. July corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 190.58 points and the NASDAQ is up 32.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts may be trading slightly lower, but thankfully, that's not hindering the cash market's ability to trade higher. Within the last hour, there's been some light trade noted in the North at $402, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some light trade has developed in the South at $256 to $257, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. So even though last week's market jumped $9.00 to $14.00 higher, packers are obviously still short bought and in need of more cattle as they're having to push prices higher again this week in the cash market. One would hope that this bullish development in the market's fundamentals would have a positive effect on the futures complex, but as of right now, the contracts are still trading mildly lower. June live cattle are down $0.45 at $253.02, August live cattle are down $0.95 at $247.95 and October live cattle are down $1.62 at $242.12.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.04 ($387.58) and select down $4.55 ($385.08) with a movement of 72 loads (46.40 loads of choice, 2.78 loads of select, 17.22 loads of trim and 5.78 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And even though there have been some positive developments in the fed cash cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts are opting to trade in alignment with the live cattle contracts, as currently most of the feeder cattle contracts are trading $2.00 lower into midday Thursday. May feeders are down $2.40 at $369.72, August feeders are down $2.85 at $370.20 and September feeders are down $2.45 at $368.85. If the live cattle contracts happen to trade higher ahead of the day's close, then there's a strong chance that the feeder cattle contracts will follow the live cattle market's lead and could see stronger prices ahead of the market close, too, but as always, time will tell.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into midday Thursday as the nearby contracts are currently trading mildly higher while the deferred contracts continue to trade lower. It is helpful to see that midday pork cutout values are up slightly, but before traders will trust that development, they'll need to see multiple days in which pork demand is stronger. June lean hogs are up $0.55 at $100.25, July lean hogs are up $0.52 at $102.77 and August lean hogs are up $0.42 at $103.72. The projected lean hog index for 5/6/2026 is down $0.17 at $91.02 and the actual index for 5/5/2026 is up $0.09 at $91.19. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 243 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $94.82. Pork cutouts total 186.16 loads with 167.53 loads of pork cuts and 18.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.35, $96.45.

 

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Traders Wait for Cash Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were able to hold onto gains in most contracts. Traders had little reason to push the market significantly higher as no cash trade has taken place this week, leaving traders cautious. The general feeling is that cash will trade steadily this week, but cash trade has a tendency to defy expectations. The huge increase last week was not expected. Packers' margins are in the red, but they need to maintain slaughter to satisfy demand. Boxed beef prices on Wednesday were lower, with choice down $2.72 and select down $2.61.

Hog futures opened lower on Wednesday and never looked back. It is critical that futures hold support where they are, or another wave of selling could erupt. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.86 with a weighted average price of $94.59. Packers remain able to purchase a sufficient supply of hogs without having to be very aggressive. Pork cutout values declined $0.87, keeping both cash and cutouts on the defensive. This provides little support to futures, with the fund traders continuing to reduce their long positions. The weekly hog weights increased slightly to an average of 291.2 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The expectation is for steady cash trade this week. This would continue to support the market.	1)	If cash trade remains steady this week, it may be a disappointment to traders, leading to some liquidation of long positions.
2)	There has been no further news from the government regarding the antitrust investigation into the meatpacking industry. The market is showing little or no concern over this.	2)	Cattle futures need to see continued positive fundamental news, or the market may see a significant price correction.
3)	Hog futures are back down to support, from which traders may step back and buy for a short-term trade as they did earlier this week.	3)	The weekly hog weight increased 0.3 pounds last week to average 291.2 pounds. This is 0.7 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	The summer grilling season may increase pork demand as the high price of beef may have consumers looking to pork as a preference.	4)	If hog futures show further weakness to move below support, further liquidation may take place as traders exit long positions.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Higher While Hogs Remain Pressured

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed with the cattle contracts, finding mild support, while the hog complex ended the day lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but a bid of $400 was offered throughout the day in Nebraska. July corn is down 11 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 612.34 points and the NASDAQ is up 512.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts ended the day mostly higher, as traders continued to help support the complex through the day's end. More than anything, traders were willing to mildly support the contracts even though no substantial cash cattle trade has developed, as the bullish sentiment of the market remains alive and well, and given that the complex is not up against immediate fear of resistance pressure. June live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $253.47, August live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $248.90 and October live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $243.72. A single bid of $400 was offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.72 ($389.62) and select down $2.61 ($389.63) with a movement of 107 loads (79.26 loads of choice, 5.64 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 21.90 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that prices advanced aggressively last week (up $9.00 to $14.00 higher), it's likely that unless packers are still short bought, prices will trade steady at best.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the feeder cattle complex is nearing resistance, the market continued to trade higher through Wednesday's close as traders were pleased to see the live cattle contracts trading higher and opted to let the worry of resistance pressure be a problem for Thursday to solve. May feeders closed $0.57 higher at 372.40, August feeders closed $0.75 higher at $373.05 and September feeders closed $0.92 higher at $371.30. At Beaver Livestock Auction in Beaver, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers over 800 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher and steers under 800 pounds traded $2.00 to $8.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded steady to $5.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves sold steady on a light test. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 90%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/5/2026: down $0.14, $375.19.

LEAN HOGS:

And the same old story remains true in the lean hog complex, without enough support arising, traders continue to let the contracts trade lower. June lean hogs closed $1.72 lower at $99.70, July lean hogs closed $1.27 lower at $102.25 and August lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $103.30. Unfortunately, the market could pressure its support plane as no substantial fundamental support has developed this week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.86 with a weighted average price of $94.59 on 4,987 head. Pork cutouts totaled 313.66 loads with 263.68 loads of pork cuts and 49.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.87, $95.10. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 19,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/4/2026: up $0.07, $91.10.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Without strengthening demand, it's unlikely that packers will show the cash market much interest later this week.