Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Dominate Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed as the market continues to yearn to see stronger fundamental support. A single bid is on the table in Kansas but otherwise no new developments have surfaced in the cash cattle market following Wednesday's trade. May corn is up 3 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 505.44 points and NASDAQ is down 297.95 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 25,400 metric tons (mt) for 2026 -- a marketing year high -- were up noticeably from the previous week and up 87% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (11,600 mt), Japan (5,900 mt) and Hong Kong (3,200 mt). Pork net sales of 23,700 mt for 2026 -- a marketing year low -- were down 34% from the previous week and 30% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (5,200 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and China (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Wednesday's lower close, the live cattle complex is back to trading mildly higher. It's not because of an uptick in fundamental support -- but rather that some light technical support has worked its way into the market and is helping drive the contracts up into Thursday's noon hour. The other supportive factor that might be adding a slight boost to the market was the marketing year high of 25,400 metric tons of beef sold in Thursday morning's export report. April live cattle are up $1.12 at $231.27, June live cattle are up $1.37 at $229.45 and August live cattle are up $1.17 at $227.35. A single bid is on the table in Kansas at $235 but otherwise no new cash cattle trade has developed following Wednesday's business.

Wednesday asking prices were around $236 in the South and $374 in the North. Light trade was reported in Nebraska and Iowa with dressed deals marked at mostly $372, $8 lower than last week's weighted averages. Light scattered business took place in the South at $235 to $236, $3 lower in Texas, and $5 lower in Kansas.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.45 ($398.15) and select up $3.33 ($392.58) with a movement of 83 loads (63.84 loads of choice, 6.07 loads of select, 7.26 loads of trim and 6.09 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Meanwhile the feeder cattle complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as it isn't as confident at this time as the live cattle complex. March feeders are down $0.35 at $348.57, April feeders are down $0.37 at $342.95 and May feeders are down $0.02 at $339.80. The market continues to hover around its 100-day moving average, which could be a difficult threshold to boldly move past until some of the market's pressure resolves and its fundamentals improve.

LEAN HOGS:

Once again the lean hog complex is trailing lower as the market's resistance simply is too much for traders to bear at this point. April lean hogs are down $0.80 at $94.40, June lean hogs are down $1.60 at $107.65 and July lean hogs are down $1.72 at $109.57. While pork cutout values may be mildly higher, the market doesn't seem to be seeing that as a wildly supportive gesture as it not only wants to see higher prices but also consistency.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $0.89 with a weighted average price of $92.16, ranging from $88.00 to $94.00 on 830 head and a five-day rolling average of $92.66. Pork cutouts totaled 124.69 loads with 112.38 loads of pork cuts and 12.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.24, $98.65.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash Cattle Trade to Pressure the Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders saw the impact on cash with the upcoming strike at the JBS plant in Greeley. Some light cash trade took place at $5.00 to $8.00 lower. This sets the stage for the rest of the week. Feedlots holding out for steady to higher prices will be holding those cattle for another week. Live cattle futures already have this factored in and more, which should limit the pressure on futures. Boxed beef prices continue to push higher, with choice up $2.03 and select up $2.48. Both are again approaching $400. Live cattle closed the chart gaps below the market, while some deferred feeder cattle contracts left minor chart gaps at the lower open on Wednesday, which may be filled today based on the recent pattern.

Hog futures followed the pattern of cattle by reversing the gains of Tuesday. The lower open left chart gaps in the June and July contracts. The heightened volatility is based partially on the uncertainty of the outside markets and the uncertainty of cash and cutout prices. Hog slaughter remains strong, providing a sufficient supply of pork to the market. This limits the price strength of pork cutouts. Pork cutout values on Wednesday decreased by $0.69. The National Dairy Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.12 with a significant volume of hogs purchased. Cash is expected to be lower today as packers are expected to be less aggressive. Weekly hog weights increased to 291.2 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have a discount factored into the market, which is significantly more than expected lower cash.	1)	The strike at the JBS plant may put further pressure on the market as more cattle will be available to other plants. Packers will have sufficient supply to choose from and may not pay up for them.
2)	Boxed beef prices continue to increase, moving to just shy of $400. Consumer demand remains strong.	2)	The lower cash cattle trade on Wednesday, although limited, has set the stage for lower trade for the week.
3)	Hog slaughter remains strong and above a year ago, as higher pork demand requires increased production.	3)	Weekly hog weight increased last week to 291.2 pounds, up 0.3 pounds from the previous week and 1.6 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	The June and July hog contracts have a chart gap left on the open on Wednesday that may be filled today or by the end of the week.	4)	The recent volatility may result in some long liquidation as traders may take profits to limit exposure over the rest of the week and the weekend.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Closed Fully Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a glum day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed lower at Wednesday's end. It was also disappointing to see the cash cattle market trade lower as sales were noted in the North at $372, which is $8.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and some light trade was noted in Kansas at $235, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. May corn is up 8 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 406.73 points and the NASDAQ is down 48.30 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

To say the absolute least, it was a displeasing day for the live cattle complex as the market not only saw its futures contracts close lower, but the cash market also traded softer. April live cattle closed $2.22 lower at $230.15, June live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $228.07 and August live cattle closed $2.17 lower at $226.17. Unfortunately, the spot April contract again closed below the market's 100-day moving average, which sends another level of bearishness across the sector. A light trade was reported in Nebraska at $372, which is $8.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and some light trade was reported in Kansas at $235, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. More trade will inevitably need to develop ahead of the week's end, but a lower trend is fully expected at this point. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head, 5,000 head less than a year ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.03 ($396.70) and select up $2.48 ($389.25) with a movement of 87 loads (66.70 loads of choice, 4.64 loads of select, 7.85 loads of trim and 7.36 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With the week's early trend being lower, and the board being driven to trade lower too, the cattle that trade later in the week will likely keep with the market's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also closed weaker Wednesday afternoon as the onset of additional external pressure was simply too much for the market to withstand. The market was trading lower from the day's initial start, but upon seeing the fed cash cattle market trade lower, the market really had no other option but to continue to scale lower through the day's end. March feeders closed $4.62 lower at $348.72, April feeders closed $6.37 lower at $343.30 and May feeders closed $6.57 lower at $339.82. At the Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder heifers sold $2.00 to $4.00 lower, but the rest of the feeders weren't well tested. Steer and heifer calves sold $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Peewee calves sold $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 40%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/10/2026: down $0.97, $364.80.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower Wednesday afternoon as the market felt some of the same doggish pressure that the cattle sector did, and was also pressured by the market's resistance threshold, which traders simply weren't willing to challenge throughout the day. April lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $95.20, June lean hogs closed $1.40 lower at $109.25 and July lean hogs closed $1.50 lower at $111.30. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.12 with a weighted average price of $92.89 on 7,990 head. Pork cutouts totaled 300.26 loads with 261.41 loads of pork cuts and 38.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.69, $98.41. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 496,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/9/2026: up $0.10, $90.97.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely secured the vast majority of their cash needs for the week.

Cattle markets adjust to tight supplies and processing constraints

U.S. cattle markets continue to face headwinds as reduced cattle supplies and ongoing trade uncertainty shape market conditions. While cow/calf producers are positioned for another year of strong margins as the national herd begins to stabilize, downstream segments remain under pressure. Feedlots started February with an estimated 11.5 million head on feed, slightly below year-ago levels. Meanwhile, packers have scaled back operations amid sustained financial losses, with cattle slaughter running 12% lower than last year.

Between fewer cattle and favorable prices for feeders, feedlots are retaining cattle longer. The number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days is more than 20% higher than a year ago. Unlike typical seasonal patterns, fed cattle weights have continued to rise rather than decline heading into spring.

Capacity utilization is a limiting factor in packer profitability. As packers operate below capacity, they are cutting shifts to minimize losses amidst tight cattle supplies. Current dynamics led Tyson to permanently close its Lexington, Nebraska plant (one of Tyson’s largest, with a capacity of nearly 5,000 head per day) in January.

Cattle supplies are further constrained by a smaller calf crop and the ongoing suspension of Mexican cattle imports, limiting feeder cattle availability and intensifying pressure on both feedlots and packers. While wholesale beef prices remain elevated, packer margins continue to operate deep in negative territory, highlighting the strain across the supply chain. Higher beef values have not been sufficient to offset reduced throughput and higher costs.

Trade policy adds uncertainty to outlook.

Recent export data highlights a softening contribution from trade to the U.S. beef complex, with the primary impact on beef byproducts. In 2025, beef and beef product exports accounted for 12.7% of total production, down from 13.9% in 2024, while export value per head of fed slaughter fell to $391.94, the lowest level since 2020. Although muscle cuts can largely be absorbed by the domestic market, declines in exports of offal and hides materially reduce total carcass value. Lost demand for products such as tongues, tripe, livers and hides can reduce animal value by tens of dollars per head, directly compressing packer margins.

This byproduct drag is becoming increasingly consequential in the current cattle cycle. U.S. beef exports to China have effectively stalled, down 67% year over year, and shipments to Japan, Mexico, Canada and Taiwan have also softened. Even if domestic beef demand remains strong, U.S. consumers do not replace specialized export demand for items such as tongue to Japan or tripe to Mexico. When these outlets disappear, byproducts are pushed into low value channels where rendering becomes the price setter, lowering the value of the entire animal. This dynamic increases pressure on packers through weaker margins and contributes to decisions around plant closures, reduced shifts, and lower cattle bids.

At the same time, imports are increasingly filling the gap left by tight domestic cattle supplies. U.S. net beef supply has increased each year since 2023, supported by rising imports from countries such as Brazil and Australia, even as the U.S. cow herd declined another 1% year over year. Strong consumer demand has masked some of the downstream effects, but imported beef represents a growing long-term competitive threat, particularly if domestic herd rebuilding eventually coincides with heavier carcass weights and higher slaughter volumes. In that scenario, increased imports could amplify price volatility at the cow/calf level.

Trade policy uncertainty adds another layer of risk. Following the Supreme Court ruling that invalidated tariffs imposed earlier in 2025, the Trump administration implemented a new import surcharge that was later increased to 15%. Australian beef remains exempt, while Canadian and Mexican beef continues to move duty-free under USMCA protections. While a planned meeting between U.S. and Chinese leadership at the end of March has raised expectations for dialogue, longer term prospects for China as a reliable export market remain limited. Structural competition, geopolitical tensions, and shifting supply chains suggest any improvement is more likely to be temporary than transformational.

Overall, tighter cattle supplies, low plant utilization amid high fixed processing costs, weakening byproduct values, and rising imports are converging to create a challenging environment for packers and producers alike. Even as market outcomes over the past year have exceeded expectations, the underlying structural pressures remain unresolved. How quickly processing capacity adjusts, how imports evolve, and whether global byproduct demand recovers will be key factors in determining when, or if, the current cycle reaches a breaking point.

Profitability

Cattle feeders: Profitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Very profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Cattle feeders are currently profitable, supported by firm fed cattle prices and manageable feed costs. However, tighter feeder supplies and dry weather conditions pose growing headwinds.

Tight cattle supplies, strong calf prices and steady beef demand are keeping cow/calf producers very profitable. Slow herd rebuilding is expected to support strong margins throughout the year.