Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Trade Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as the market is short of fundamental support. More than anything the market would like to see some developments in the fed cash cattle market as noting higher prices would reassure traders that the cattle futures can indeed trade higher. March corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 553.58 points and NASDAQ is down 331.77 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,700 mt for 2026 were down 21% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (7,800 mt), Japan (1,900 mt) and Mexico (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 28,600 mt for 2026 were down 18% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (12,000 mt), Japan (7,100 mt) and Colombia (1,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Wednesday's sizeable rally, the live cattle complex is back to trading slightly lower as the market tries to patiently wait to see what's going to develop in the fed cash cattle market this week. With boxed beef prices declining -- as they seasonally do during this time -- traders need to see additional fundamental support, which will likely come from the cash market when trade develops at some point this week. But in the lightning fast world we live in, waiting until the very bitter end of the week to see what's going to develop fundamentally for the market is a painful waiting lesson traders aren't necessarily fond of. February live cattle are down $0.25 at $242.10, April live cattle are down $0.90 at $240.07 and June live cattle are down $1.02 at $235.55. Asking prices have surfaced in parts of Texas at $245 to $247 -- but otherwise the market remains quiet and trade could be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.39 ($365.53) and select down $0.59 ($361.99) with a movement of 46 loads (24.40 loads of choice, 3.08 loads of select, 7.95 loads of trim and 10.72 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And as one would logically assume in this market, with the live cattle contracts trading lower, the feeder cattle contracts are following suit. March feeders are down $2.50 at $364.95, April feeders are down $1.90 at $362.70 and May feeders are down $1.32 at $359.10. Demand has been mostly strong this week in the countryside for both feeder cattle and calves -- and especially for cattle that will make yearlings this upcoming summer.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to tumble lower as the market anticipates a wall of supply that's likely going to hit the market at any point in time now. The latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed market-ready supplies were larger than originally assumed, and the market is bracing itself for that supply to hit. April lean hogs are down $2.37 at $91.47, June lean hogs are down $2.07 at $105.40 and July lean hogs are down $2.05 at $107.32.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.28 with a weighted average price of $87.00, ranging from $80.00 to $88.50 on 2,621 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.72. Pork cutouts total 166.32 loads with 148.49 loads of pork cuts and 17.83 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.12, $95.89.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Dry Weather Causes Concern in Cattle Country

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The April live cattle contract fell just shy of closing the chart gap that remained since Feb. 4. The other live and feeder cattle contracts remained within the recent sideways range. The gains should result in greater potential for higher cash trade this week. The dryness developing in cattle country is an increasing cause for concern. There is discussion and some movement of cattle weighing as low as 300 pounds moving into feedlots due to the dryness. That certainly does not increase the desire or the ability to rebuild the cow herd. The current market fundamentals suggest that the increased importation of beef from Argentina will have little impact on beef prices. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $1.63 and select down $0.32.

Hog futures had another day of liquidation as the market continued to correct its overbought status. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.43, leaving much to be desired fundamentally. Cash may be higher today, but gains may be limited as packers will likely finish up most of the purchases for the week. Pork cutout values declined $1.69. The recent bullish sentiment may be wavering, and it may be enough to reduce the likelihood of traders buying the break due to contracts closing below technical support.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The dryness developing in cattle country is a concern that may keep cattle herds from rebuilding and keeping supplies tight.	1)	Cattle futures were not able to push above technical resistance, with the potential for futures to pull back even if cash trades higher.
2)	The opening up for more beef imports from Argentina has had no impact on the market as it has already been factored in.	2)	Packers continue maintain a reduced slaughter pace for cattle, but it has not been able to improve boxed beef prices.
3)	Hog futures have corrected from being oversold and may increase trader interest to buy the break.	3)	Liquidation has taken place over the past 3 days with hog futures closing below support. Traders may not be anxious to buy the break.
4)	Weekly hog weights were 0.1 pound lower than the previous week, keeping the lower trend intact.	4)	Weekly hog weights are 1.5 pounds higher than a year ago. Packers are having little difficulty meeting demand for pork.

U.S. cattle herd hits new lows as decline extends into sixth year

The U.S. cattle herd fell for the sixth consecutive year, totaling 86.16 million head on January 1, 2026. This is 320,000 head below 2025 levels and 8.64 million head reduction since the 2019 cyclical peak. Breaking this down further, the beef cow herd contracted by 280,000 head to 27.61 million, a somewhat surprising development given relatively low cow slaughter rates.

Heifer retention increased by 40,000 head. However, a few more retained heifers in 2026 does not necessarily signal a larger calf crop in 2027. Most of these heifers will not calve until at least 2027, and it is still too early to assume meaningful herd expansion or a noticeable uptick in calf numbers next year. Notably, heifers as a share of cattle on feed are already higher than in 2025. However, if heifer retention does increase, those animals are pulled out of the feedyard supply, which would tighten the fed cattle inventory and support higher prices in the near term. Accordingly, 2027 may mark the early stages of herd expansion at the earliest.

The threat of New World screwworm continues to move steadily closer to the U.S. border. In response to ongoing detections in northern Mexico, all southern U.S. ports of entry remain closed to live cattle imports since July 1. USDA unveiled a plan to release sterile New World screwworm flies in Texas and along key regions of northern Mexico to help prevent further spread of the pest. Because female screwworm flies mate only once in their lifetime, releasing sterile males reduces the number of viable offspring in subsequent generations, gradually suppressing the population and slowing its northward movement.

In the western U.S., the beef cattle herd remained relatively stable year over year. Beef cattle supplies, which considers all cattle and calves, not including milk cows that calved or milk cow replacements (a proxy for the beef cattle herd), saw a reduction of 1.3% in the region. California and Idaho posted only slight declines, with Idaho down roughly 20,000 head (-1.3%) and California down about 10,000 head (-0.4%) compared to 2025. Montana and Oregon also recorded modest decreases of about 21,000 (-1.0%) and 24,000 (-2.2%) head, respectively. Washington was the only state to see an increase, adding approximately 20,000 (+2.7%) beef cattle in the past year. Arizona saw a notable decline of 56,000 (-9.2%) head, likely driven by ongoing drought conditions.

Although the latest report offered a few surprises, the national herd remains historically small. These tight supplies are expected to continue to support strong cattle prices for cow-calf producers. However, rising production costs remain a substantial concern. Over the past five years, operating costs for Western cow-calf operations have risen an average of 17.5%, while total production expenses have climbed 22.8%. Even with record prices, producers should closely manage costs.

Packer profitability has been under significant pressure, with beef packers operating at slim or negative margins since September 2024. Packer profitability has been impacted by expense of purchasing cattle as well as reduced plant utilization. Trade policy uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, has added further strain. Current breakeven prices on an 800lb steer are estimated near $2.59 per lb for fats, while market fats are closer to $2.35 per lb, meaning today’s cattle are being fed at a loss. Although prior-yearyear cattle were profitable, some packers appear to be taking on substantial risk in hopes of better margins in 2026 and 2027.

Profitability

Cattle feeders: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Very profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Tight calf supplies and robust demand have intensified competition for feeder cattle. Profitability is expected to remain resilient, supported by cost-of-gain efficiencies and strong box beef prices.

Historically tight cattle inventories, limited availability of replacement heifers, and firm calf prices continue to underpin profitability for cow-calf operations.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally While Hogs Continue to Scale Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed on opposite ends, with the cattle complex receiving additional technical support that drove the cattle contracts higher, but the lean hog complex continued to drift lower through the day's end. March corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 66.74 points and the NASDAQ is down 36.00 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a breakout day for the live cattle complex as traders elected to push the live cattle contracts out of their sideways trading range, as robust trader interest simply drove the contracts higher. The livestock contracts are anticipatory markets, and it's almost as though traders simply decided that today was the day that a little move position was built into the live cattle complex, as everyone knows that the trajectory is steady to somewhat higher with demand strong and supplies limited. February live cattle closed $3.25 higher at $242.35, April live cattle closed $3.55 higher at $240.97 and June live cattle closed $2.77 higher at $236.57. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and both bids and asking prices remain elusive. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.63 ($365.92) and select down $0.32 ($362.58) with a movement of 102 loads (69.91 loads of choice, 7.08 loads of select, 16.99 loads of trim and 7.61 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With supplies of market-ready cattle thin, packers will likely end up paying more money again in this week's fed cash cattle market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the technical support of seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, it was almost easy for the feeder cattle contracts to jump on board too and drive their contracts higher. March feeders closed $2.67 higher at $367.45, April feeders closed $3.32 higher at $364.60 and May feeders closed $3.65 higher at $360.42. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers sold unevenly steady across all weight classes. Feeder heifers under 700 pounds sold sharply lower, but heifers over 700 pounds sold $6.00 to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/10/2026: up $0.53, $374.36.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continued to plummet through Wednesday's close, as the market has been enduring significant technical pressure as of late. And with pork cutout values recently seeing a dip in demand as well, it's likely that the complex will continue to scale lower. April lean hogs closed $1.65 lower at $93.85, June lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $107.47 and July lean hogs closed $1.17 lower at $109.37. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.43 with a weighted average price of $88.17 on 2,600 head. Pork cutouts totaled 283.46 loads with 246.14 loads of pork cuts and 37.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.69, $93.77. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/9/2026: down $0.14, $86.32.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With the futures market and pork cutout values trending lower, it's likely that packers will hardly participate in the cash hog market.