Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts End the Day Lower Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mostly lower as traders didn't see the support they needed to keep the contracts elevated through the day's end. Some light cash cattle trade developed in the North, but the day's movement was thin. July corn is down 13 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $6.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 370.26 points and the NASDAQ is up 232.88 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 7,500 mt for 2026 were down 25% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (2,000 mt), South Korea (1,300 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Port net sales of 21,000 mt for 2026 were down 32% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (7,100 mt), Mexico (6,100 mt) and Colombia (1,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The back-and-forth nature of the live cattle contract's chaotic state continued through Thursday's trade. Thankfully, today's lower end wasn't because of any external noise or pressure, but rather the market ran into resistance pressure as the contracts neared that threshold. June live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $252.07, August live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $246.15 and October live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $238.07. But what was encouraging is that the fed cash cattle market saw cattle trade even higher today, as some cattle traded in the North for $415, which is $12.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Otherwise, earlier this week, light trade took place every day with some pretty wide ranges. Northern dressed deals have traded in a range of $400 to $410, mostly $405 to $410, $2 to $7 higher than last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals have had a range of $260 to $265, mostly $260 to $262, $3 to $5 higher than the prior week's weighted averages. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.32 ($387.45) and select up $0.42 ($389.00) with a movement of 99 loads (74.81 loads of choice, 5.86 loads of select, 10.77 loads of trim and 7.58 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. At this point, the bulk of this week's trade is likely done with, although some trade could still develop on Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex ended the day lower as well, as the feeder cattle complex continues to close track alongside the live cattle contracts. May feeders closed $0.25 higher at $367.57, August feeders closed $2.92 lower at $358.00 and September feeders closed $2.75 lower at $355.22. At the Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 400 to 500 pounds sold $10.00 lower and steers weighing 550 to 600 pounds traded $8.00 higher. Feeder steers weighing 600 to 650 pounds sold lower, while steers weighing 650 to 850 pounds traded steady to $8.00 higher. Heifer calves weighing 300 to 450 pounds and those weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $2.00 to $8.00 higher but those weighing 450 to 500 pounds traded softer. Slaughter cows traded steady to $4.00 lower, but slaughter bulls sold $7.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 35%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/13/2026: up $0.09, $373.23.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with the nearby contract slightly lower, but the deferred months held a slightly stronger position. June lean hogs closed $1.35 lower at $99.52, July lean hogs closed $1.32 lower at $104.55 and August lean hogs closed $1.05 lower at $105.47. And while pork cutout values ended the day slightly higher, that wasn't enough support to keep the contracts elevated throughout the day. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.19 with a weighted average price of $93.32 on 810 head. Pork cutouts totaled 248.25 loads with 213.70 loads of pork cuts and 34.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.52, $96.55. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 464,000 head, 20,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/12/2026: down $0.26, $90.74.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers are mostly done buying in this week's cash market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Trade Higher While Hogs Scale Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the cattle contracts again move higher, but the lean hog market's support has fizzled out. Some more light cash cattle trade has been noted in the North at $415, which is $12.00 higher than last week's weighted average. July corn is down 15 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 377.35 points and NASDAQ is up 237.68 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The futures market is holding its wits together this morning and continuing to move higher as traders are allowing the contracts to successfully rally roughly $1.00 higher into Thursday's noon hour. More than anything the continued support from the relentless cash market has helped keep the contracts elevated. Yet again Thursday morning more cash trade has taken place and prices have been marked higher. Thus far this morning there's been a handful of cattle traded in Nebraska at $415 -- which is $12 higher than last week's weighted average. Otherwise earlier this week light trade took place every day with some pretty wide ranges. Northern dressed deals have traded in a range of $400 to $410, mostly $405 to $410, $2 to $7 higher than last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals have had a range of $260 to $265, mostly $260 to $262, $3 to $5 higher than the prior week's weighted averages. But thanks to the continued efforts of feedlot managers, the market is witnessing a true rally in the cash market where price discovery is the main theme of this bullish run.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.01 ($388.67) and select up $0.75 ($389.33) with a movement of 59 loads (43.42 loads of choice, 3.21 loads of select, 6.99 loads of trim and 5.17 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are also enjoying a modest rally into Thursday's noon hour as the market is grateful to see the live cattle contracts trading higher which lends some additional technical support. May feeders are up $2.12 at $369.45, August feeders are up $1.77 at $362.70 and September feeders are up $2.40 at $360.37. Luckily Thursday's upward move has helped pull the spot August contract up to the market's 40-day moving average which remains a threshold that bull-spreaders should want the complex to conquer.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is lower heading into Thursday's noon hour as traders would like to continue to see the contracts scale higher but aren't confident there's currently enough support in the market to successfully do so. Yes, midday pork cutout values are higher, but the cash market has been of little support this week. June lean hogs are down $1.30 at $99.57, July lean hogs are down $1.07 at $104.80 and August lean hogs are down $1.02 at $105.50.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/13/2026 is down $0.26 at $90.48, and the actual index for 5/12/2026 is up $0.26 at $90.74. Hog prices are not available on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 265 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $95.04. Pork cutouts total 167.16 loads with 138.19 loads of pork cuts and 28.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.77, $96.80.

Cattle update - Tighter supplies, slower slaughter

USDA lowered its beef production forecast in response to slower‑than‑expected steer and heifer slaughter rates early in 2026. Total commercial cattle slaughter declined 8.5% in the first quarter, reflecting tighter fed cattle availability. Heavier carcass weights, up more than 34 lbs on average during the quarter, helped offset some of the decline in slaughter but were not sufficient to prevent an overall reduction in beef production.

Commercial slaughter echoed national trends across the Western states. First quarter slaughter declined in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington, consistent with broader national reductions. In Montana, first quarter cattle slaughter was relatively stable compared to 2025, though more recent reports indicate slaughter activity has softened in April due to lighter animals.

Despite reduced slaughter levels and tight supplies, beef demand remains resilient. Packers continue to search for additional lean beef to blend with excess fat currently on the market in order to support ground beef demand even as production tightens. Heifers accounted for 37.3% of cattle on feed, unchanged from last year. This indicates minimal herd retention and suggests limited near‑term expansion in the U.S. cow herd. Anecdotal reports suggest some Western producers are diversifying operations by maintaining base cow herds, retaining heifers and marketing bred heifers, creating more consistent revenue streams across both spring and fall.

Drought conditions are intensifying and remain a key constraint to herd rebuilding efforts. Pasture conditions and upcoming hay production will be critical in determining cattle production capacity heading into 2026. As of May 5, 61% of national U.S. cattle production areas were experiencing drought, up sharply from 31% a year earlier. Within AgWest states, Idaho and Montana are facing some of the most severe conditions, while drought across much of the remaining Western U.S. remains comparatively manageable. In contrast, conditions are worsening across some of the largest cattle production areas in the Central and Southern Plains, where 52% of Oklahoma, 71% of Texas, and 75% of Nebraska cattle regions are currently classified in D2 (severe) drought or worse.

Cattle prices remain historically strong. Feeder and fed cattle prices have held firm, reflecting tight supplies and continued demand. On average, 550‑pound steer prices increased 33% year over year to exceed $5.05 per pound nationwide in April. Fed steer prices are also higher, rising 14% year over year to average more than $2.47 per pound. While the fed cattle cash market softened earlier in April, prices strengthened again toward month’s end.

On the global stage, elevated U.S. beef prices are weighing on export competitiveness. U.S. beef prices remain significantly higher than those of other major exporters, limiting opportunities in price‑sensitive markets. Beef exports are projected to decline 8% in 2026. Elevated export prices continue to support producer returns but are reducing U.S. competitiveness in key international markets.

Profitability

Cattle feeders: Profitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers: Very profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Cattle feeders are currently profitable, supported by firm fed cattle prices and manageable feed costs. However, tighter feeder supplies and dry weather conditions pose growing headwinds.

Tight cattle supplies, strong calf prices and steady beef demand are keeping cow/calf producers very profitable. Slow herd rebuilding is expected to support strong margins throughout the year.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Show Further Strength

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market was driven by some light Northern cash sales at $410, $7.00 higher than last week. It is incredible to see cash trade over $400. There is a strong possibility that cash could even trade higher before the week is done. Some light trade took place in the South at the beginning of the week at $2.00 to $3.00 higher, but nothing has occurred since. It looks like those prices may be higher than that when trade develops. Futures posted substantial price ranges on Wednesday, with live cattle $6.00 to $7.00 and feeder cattle around $10.00. Interestingly, live cattle futures showed stronger gains than feeder cattle, but the discount to cash was significant and it needed to be reduced. Boxed beef certainly did not shine on Wednesday, with choice down $2.05 and select down $2.69.

Hog futures did an about-face, opening higher and climbing quickly. We must not think that futures have bottomed and strong buying will continue. Without consistent fundamental support, this might be another selling opportunity as traders scalp the market for a profit rather than establishing long-term positions. A price change was reported on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, showing a gain of $0.32. Pork cutout values increased by $0.51. Today is the final day for the May contract, with June taking over as the lead month.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Significantly higher cash sales were noted in the North, which sets the stage for strong cash this week. Sales at $3.00 in the South on Monday and $7.00 higher in the North may be the lows.	1)	Once the Memorial Day demand for beef is met, consumers may slow beef purchases and utilize more of the less expensive choices of protein for grilling.
2)	Memorial Day demand for beef will be strong, and it is the beginning of the grilling season. This should support boxed beef prices.	2)	Cattle futures will need to move above the recent highs or selling could take place if technical resistance holds.
3)	The strength in hog futures on Wednesday may follow through today, as further short covering could unfold.	3)	Weekly hog weights remain 1.2 pounds higher than a year ago, leaving more tonnage available to the market.
4)	Weekly hog weights declined to 290.8 pounds, down 0.4 pounds from the previous week. Hog weights may trend lower moving forward.	4)	Packers may be mostly finished buying for the week, resulting in lower cash traded and eliminating support in the market.