GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex was able to close higher Tuesday afternoon as traders rushed to the contracts' aid following Monday's weaker close. It's anyone's guess how traders will handle the complex on Wednesday as the lean hog complex is up against resistance, and the cattle complex still has the strike looming. May corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 34.29 points and the NASDAQ is up 1.15 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex bounced back throughout Tuesday's trade following Monday's dramatic decline. More than anything, traders seemed to look past the looming possibility that there could be a strike at JBS next Monday in Greeley, Colorado. April live cattle closed $2.22 higher at $232.37, June live cattle closed $2.77 higher at $230.20 and August live cattle closed $2.77 higher at $228.35. The spot April contract was able to close above its 100-day moving average, which is a critical threshold to monitor as it signals whether or not the market is trading with support or with a doggish, more bearish attitude. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared positive news for both the cattle and beef markets for 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 110 million pounds as processing speeds through the early part of the year have been significantly lower than anticipated, and beef production is forecasted to be lower even though carcass weights are once again heavier. And amid a time in which beef demand is so strong, fed cattle prices for the first three quarters of 2026 were all increased compared to last month. Steer prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $240 (up $2.00 from last month); steer prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $241 (up $3.00 from last month); steer prices in the third quarter are expected to average $242 (up $2.00 from last month); and steer prices for the fourth quarter of 2026 are unchanged at $245. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 100 million pounds as supplies domestically remain thin, and beef exports fell by 30 million pounds compared to last month's estimates.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.38 ($394.67) and select up $3.15 ($386.77) with a movement of 94 loads (72.20 loads of choice, 7.68 loads of select, 4.47 loads of trim and 9.18 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. The possibility that there could be even less throughput next week if the strike at JBS happens likely means that cash prices will be lower this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex continues to closely follow the live cattle market as it closed mostly over $3.00 higher today. More than anything, traders saw the positive uptick in the live cattle complex as the "green light signal" to justify trading their contracts higher and didn't look back. March feeders closed $2.70 higher at $353.35, April feeders closed $3.12 higher at $349.67 and May feeders closed $3.52 higher at $346.40. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded $10.00 to $20.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves were lightly tested, but the better-quality type calves sold near steady, while the plainer type calves traded up to $20.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 69%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/9/2026: down $0.62, $365.77.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed higher Tuesday afternoon as traders yearn to see the complex scale higher. April lean hogs closed $1.25 higher at $96.07, June lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $110.65 and July lean hogs closed $0.82 higher at $112.80. On Wednesday, the market may be faced with some opposition as traders have pushed the contracts up to resistance levels. And unfortunately, pork cutout values closed lower again this afternoon. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.82 with a weighted average price of $92.77 on 8,430 head. Pork cutouts totaled 348.08 loads with 310.05 loads of pork cuts and 38.03 loads of trim. Pork 9.10. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, 11,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/6/2026: up $0.13, $90.87.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared positive news for the pork and hog markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 remained unchanged compared to last month's estimates at 28,275 million pounds. Quarterly hog prices also showed fruitful projections as every quarter of 2026 (except for the first quarter) saw a price increase compared to last month's estimates. Hog prices in the first quarter remained unchanged at $65; hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $74 (up $1.00 from last month); hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $77 (up $2.00 from last month); and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $65 (up $2.00 from last month). Pork imports for the year remained steady at 1,145 million pounds, but pork exports gained an additional 50 million pounds.
WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values trending lower, cash prices could hold steady or trade slightly lower.
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