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Thursday, April 30, 2020

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Slaughters Lower and Pork Cutouts Hit New Daily Highs

GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's nice to see both the live cattle and lean hog complex strengthen heading into the week's close. Tyson shared Thursday afternoon that they have partnered with Matrix Medical Network to provide healthcare at the facilities. Hopefully this is an indication that plants will be back up to speed sooner rather than later. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.87 with a weighted average of $37.53 on 8,155 head sold. July corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $6.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 288.14 points and NASDAQ is down 25.16 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex closed the day fully higher and substantially higher in nearby contracts. June live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $85.95, August live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $92.10 and October live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $96.32. There was another round of very light business in the North with dressed deals at mostly $150, generally steady with Tuesday and Wednesday's decline, but roughly $4 lower than last week's weighted average. Just a handful of trade was reported in the South around $95 to $96. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 80,000 head, down 4,000 head from a week ago and down 43,000 head from a year ago.
Boxed beef prices close higher: choice up $10.18 ($367.56) and select up $10.25 ($350.16) with a movement of 111 loads (78.22 loads of choice, 19.09 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.49 loads of ground beef).
Every Thursday the USDA releases the Actual Slaughter Report from two week's prior. This allows them time to accurately receive all the data and information they may need to compile the report. If you look at the data over the last five reports, you'll notice a sharp decline in production.
For the week ending 3/21/2020, actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection totaled 660,293 head of cattle. For the week ending 3/28/2020, actual slaughter totaled 684,835 head. The next week, ending 4/4/2020, actual slaughter totaled 631,299 head. Then, for the week ending 4/11/2020, actual slaughter totaled 528,808 head. Thursday's report, sharing the week ending 4/18/2020, total slaughter dipped below 500,000 head; 486,136 head total. Comparing the first listed report to the latest, slaughter has regressed by 174,157 head in a week's time.
The problem that arises from this mess isn't simple -- nothing is. Not only are we processing fewer cattle through this COVID-19 headache, but each and every week that the market continues to process fewer and fewer head, we are creating a backlog of cattle that are still going to need processed later down the road. And let's not forget that every day cattle sit in feedlots, it costs feedlots money and taking up space that new cattle could have occupied.
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Seeing that the trades already developed and are mostly done, the chances of prices rallying into Friday's trade are slim. There should be some more cattle to sell in the South but the North could be done for the week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts closed the day fully lower, dropping anywhere from $1.45 to $1.95 lower. May feeder closed $1.45 lower at $117.10, August feeders closed $1.95 lower at $126.50 and September feeders closed $1.52 lower at $128.15. At Winter Livestock in Pratt, Kansas, their midsession report showed that compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 500 to 700 pounds were $1.00 to $2.00 higher, 700 to 850 pound steers were $4.00 to $8.00 higher and steers above 850 pounds were $1.00 to $5.00 higher. Heifers weighing 800 to 900 pounds were steady to $2.00 lower, heifers under 800 pounds were $1.00 to $2.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 4/29/2020: down $0.04, $118.79.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was able to take back what Wednesday lost and then some. June lean hogs closed $3.42 higher at $58.95, July lean hogs closed $2.02 higher at $60.50 and August lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $62.80. Pork cutouts totaled 247.79 loads with 219.69 loads of pork cuts and 28.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values made another record-breaking gain: up $9.99, $100.72. The last record was a jump of $6.55. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 288,000 head, down 73,000 head from a week ago and down 181,000 head from a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/28/2020: up $2.54, $52.26.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Seeing that cash prices closed slightly higher and that the board was able to close higher is a bullish push for Friday. However, heading into the week could disinterest packers as their kills are already limited.

#completecalfcare

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Trade Unevenly Across the Board

General Comments
Livestock contracts are trading across the board heading into Thursday's noon hour. Live cattle contracts are split, lean hogs are higher, and the feeder cattle contracts are lower. As the market continues to trade in disarray, various movements are expected. July corn is up 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 401.65 points and NASDAQ is down 77.08 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts let nearby contracts trade higher while the demand for deferred months is slim. June live cattle are up $0.17 at $84.45, August live cattle are up $0.15 at $90.92 and October live cattle are down $0.05 at $95.57. For the most part the complex is just teetering back and forth from steady with out huge advancements made on either side. As for cash cattle, the country remains slow following Wednesday's light round of trade in the North at $150. More business could take place in the South, but the North is most likely closer to being done for the week than not.
The only developing new for the day was that Tyson announced that they would be closing their Dakota City, Nebraska plant Friday through Monday to perform a deep clean.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $7.24 ($364.62) and select up $4.15 ($344.06) with a movement of 62 loads (42.46 loads of choice, 15.24 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.71 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts are solidly $1.00 lower without a lot of excitement developing. May feeders are down $1.17 at $117.37, August feeders are down $0.97 at $127.42 and September feeders are down $0.85 at $128.82. As feedlots become more and more overwhelmed with the supply of fat cattle backing up, it pressures not only the fat cattle market as supply grows but also the feeder cattle market as prices continue to fall and space for new placements becomes meek.
LEAN HOGS
Lean hog contracts are looking to regain what Wednesday let go of. Nearby contracts are trading easily above $1.00 higher and deferred contracts aren't far behind. June lean hogs are up $2.77 at $58.30, July lean hogs are up $1.35 at $59.82 and August lean hogs are up $1.12 at $62.22. cash prices weren't available for cash Thursday morning due to confidentiality issues but hopefully the afternoon cash market will be able to energize off the boards rally and push prices higher as well.
The projected lean hog index for 4/28/2020 is up $2.54 at $52.26, and the actual index for 4/27/2020 is up $0.74 at $49.72. Hog prices on the National Direct Morning Hog Report are unavailable due to confidentiality. Pork cutouts total 125.87 loads with 112.68 loads of pork cuts and 13.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.87, $98.60.


#completecalfcare

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Futures Should Find Support as Cash Surges

GENERAL COMMENTS:
While cattle futures are entrenched in a sideways pattern with June in the range of $80 to $88, boxed beef cutouts made new all-time highs for the fifth consecutive day. Cutouts have gained over $100 during the past 15 trading sessions. This leaves a huge discount of futures to cash. Light cash trading took place in the north around $150 with light activity in the South, but price was less defined, ranging from $90 to $100. Trade should pick up Wednesday. Even through there is a large discount of futures to cash, there is a backlog of cattle that will need to move through the market as packing plants are ordered to resume or continue to operate. Packers will not be concerned over supply and will not bid up higher until supplies become current.
The strong price trend in hogs that developed since mid-April hit the pause button Thursday. Chart price gaps that were left on Tuesday were filled Wednesday. This could pave the way for technical traders to continue to buy into the market. Cutouts closed up sharply Wednesday as demand increases due to consumer concern over meat supply. As with beef, there is a backlog of pork, which will need to move through the system in plants that will be running at less than capacity.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)Increasing beef demand is unfolding at a time during which plant capacity is reduced. The order to reopen processing facilities should keep beef supply on the store shelves and increase packer buying.1)The large supply of market-ready cattle that backed up over the past month will need to work through the market. This will keep packers less likely to bid higher for the time being.
2)
The huge discount of futures to cash cannot be maintained and will pull futures higher in time. Retail demand is increasing, providing support to the market.
2)
Futures may remain in a sideways range until slaughter plants can run work through the amount of cattle waiting to be processed. Many of these plants may run on a reduced workforce, slowing the process.
3)
Lean hogs have had a nice, steady run higher with the lower action Thursday closing the chart gap paving the way technically for higher prices.
3)
With hog buyers keep cash prices somewhat steady, futures traders may sell the market as the possibility of a temporary technical top is in place.
4)Strong cutouts Wednesday should provide support and increase packer demand for hogs pulling the backlog of hogs through sooner.4)
It will take some time for slaughter plants to get back to capacity, keeping the increase of cash prices less than the gains of cutouts.



#completeherdhealth

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Close Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:
The market was inconclusive on whether contracts should surge higher or submit to nearby pressure and trade fully lower. Nevertheless, contracts traded mostly sideways, some higher here and some lower there. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.45 with a weighted average of $36.46, on 8,421 head. July corn is up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 532.31 points and NASDAQ is up 306.98 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts danced on both sides of steady throughout Wednesday's close. June live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $84.27, August live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $90.77 and October live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $95.62. Another round of light trade occurred Wednesday afternoon in the North with dressed deals at mostly $150, generally steady with Tuesday's decline, but roughly $4 lower than last week's weighted average. A few deals in the South with a wide range of $90 to $100.
Boxed beef prices jump higher again: choice up $26.56 ($357.38) and select up $19.03 ($339.91) with a movement of 105 loads (62.93 loads of choice, 13.84 loads of select, 5.93 loads of trim and 22.15 loads of ground beef). Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 72,000 head, 13,000 head less than a week ago and 49,000 head less than a year ago.
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. The market is in a tough position. The announcement from President Trump about reopening plants is a saving grace to the industry. The problem though is that with the amount of cattle that have accumulated over the last three to four weeks from minimal kills, prices will continue to struggle until the market is current again.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts closed mostly higher, though some deferred contracts traded slightly lower. May feeders closed $0.05 higher at $118.55, August feeders closed $0.52 higher at $128.45 and September feeders closed $0.32 higher at $129.67. The week has fared well thus far, trading mostly higher and being able to trade sale barn cattle for respectable prices as well. At the La Junta Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, steer calves under 600 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher, 600 to 700 pound steers sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher. Heifers under 700 pounds traded mostly steady. Yearling feeder steers over 700 pounds sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher. Yearling feeder heifers over 700 pounds were too lightly tested to draw accurate measures. The CME feeder cattle index 4/28/2020: up $0.14, $118.83.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed the day solidly lower; upwards of $3.00 lower in deferred contracts. June lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $55.52, July lean hogs closed $1.77 lower at $58.47 and August lean hogs closed $2.62 lower at $61.10. Pork cutouts total 277.33 loads with 244.45 loads of pork cuts and 32.88 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.24, $90.73. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 271,000 head, 92,000 head less than a week ago and 200,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/27/2020: up $0.74, $49.72.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Unfortunately, the market will probably continue to trade mostly higher and then slightly lower in a back and forth motion until plants really come back to capacity and start to ramp up production.

#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Markets Soften

General Comments
Monday and Tuesday's ambition ran short heading into Wednesday's market as the most of livestock contracts trade lower heading into midday. The contracts have thus far been able to hold onto most of what they gained over the last two days, and the downward trade has been mostly modest in its move. July corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 541.75 points and NASDAQ is up 292.21 points.
The biggest news affecting the livestock markets came late Tuesday evening as President Trump signed executive orders that packing plants will not shut down. The order effectively deems that if plants are following the worker safety guidelines from the CDC -- then they are to remain open so that the nation's food supply isn't disrupted any more. 
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts are trading mostly lower, though only ranging $0.12 to $0.47. June live cattle are down $0.47 at $84.27, August live cattle are steady at $90.52 and October live cattle are down $0.30 at $95.50. The Fed Cattle Exchange hasn't seem to inspire any trade throughout the countryside yet, feeders are hoping to learn more about the president's plan before the week's trade is over.
Wednesday's Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 4,484 head, with 818 actually sold, 3,666 head listed as unsold, and zero head listed as PO (Passed Offer). The state by state breakdown looks like this: Kansas 1,494 total head, with 174 head sold at $100.00, 1,320 head unsold; Nebraska 885 total head, with 234 head sold at $94.50-$95.00, 651 head unsold; Texas 839 total head, with 225 head sold at $95.50, 614 head unsold; Oklahoma 1,266 total head, with 185 head sold at $100.00, 1,081 head unsold.
The delivery date/weighted averages breakdown is as listed: one-9-day delivery: 836 head total, 174 head sold, with a weighted average price of $100.00; one-17-day delivery 3,572 head total, 644 head sold, with a weighted average price of $96.57; 10-17 day delivery 76 head total, none sold.
Boxed beef prices continue to climb higher: choice up $16.98 ($347.80) and select up $11.37 ($332.35) with a movement of 56 loads (33.07 loads of choice, 6.01 loads of select, 3.09 loads of trim and 13.47 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
The feeder cattle contracts have been able to hold half of the complex higher while the other half of the complex trades modestly lower. May feeders are $0.15 higher at $118.65, August feeders are up $0.02 at $127.95 and September feeders are down $0.02 at $129.32. So long as the complex doesn't start to trade sharply lower, sale barns should be able to market and sell their calves without too much difficulty.
LEAN HOGS
The midday market took the steam out of the lean hog complex. Deferred contracts are trading upward of $2.00 lower and the cash market traded somewhat lower Wednesday morning as well. June lean hogs are down $0.82 at $55.37, July lean hogs are down $1.60 at $58.65 and August lean hogs are down $2.22 at $61.50.
The projected lean hog index for 4/28/2020 is up $2.54 at $52.26, and the actual index for 4/27/2020 is up $0.74 at $49.72. Hog price are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.49 with a weighted average of $35.52, ranging from $32.00 to $35.99 on 4,281 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $34.47. Pork cutouts total 159.67 loads with 136.48 loads of pork cuts and 23.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.19, $87.30.

#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - President Trump Signs Executive Order to Keep Plants Open

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cash cattle markets are still generally quiet midweek, although limited early week trade developed in Nebraska and Iowa late Tuesday. Prices were listed at $150 per cwt dressed basis, which is generally $4 per cwt lower than last week. Significant cash market activity is expected in the next couple of days, although it is uncertain just how active bids will be early Wednesday. The focus on the president's action Tuesday to use the Defense Protection Act in order to deem the meat packing industry as critical infrastructure is likely to spark increased activity as this will allow plants to focus on reopening plants. The other part of this is to limit the liability for packing plant companies. At this point, this is creating more questions than answers as how and when this will be implemented. The balance between keeping workers safe and maintaining the meat supply to retail locations and consumers will continue to be a delicate balance that will likely create significant controversy over the coming days and weeks. This should allow a light at the end of the tunnel for idled plants to resume production and allow a portion of the cattle, which are backed up on feedyards to slowly move to market in the coming weeks. Futures trade is expected mixed to mostly higher with potential for additional underlying support early in the week in live and feeder cattle futures as the industry tries to increase processing. Wednesday slaughter is expected at 93,000 head.
Lean hog trade has seen firm support early in the week with underlying momentum likely to redevelop early Wednesday. The impact on overall short- and long-term hog supplies already taken through the industry may continue to focus on an adjustment of overall hog numbers, especially later in the year. At this point, it is still unclear just how many hogs have been impacted as reports of euthanizing has circulated over the past few days. But even though it may have an impact on short-term, market-ready supplies, the expectation that young hog numbers may be even more affected will change the overall availability of market-ready hogs through the fourth quarter of the year. Market watchers and traders will be looking for additional information and direction on how the President's order to keep plants open will impact the market and production levels. Even if plants reopen, the uncertainty of how to keep plant employees safe will continue to be a significant challenge in the days and weeks to come. Cash hog bids are expected steady to $1 per cwt higher with most bids 50 cents higher. Slaughter Wednesday is expected at 339,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)The executive order by the president that meat packing plants are critical infrastructure is expected to clear the path to reopening production levels in the near future. This should help to limit the disconnect between market-ready animals and the availability of beef to the consumer.1)The wide disconnect between live cattle prices and wholesale beef values remains a significant barrier in the market, especially with limited upward movement in retail beef prices at this point. This could bring about significant shifts in boxed beef values in the near future, leading to additional volatility through the rest of the market.
2)
Surging boxed beef values continue to focus on the expectation of tight supplies in the near future. This may add even more support to the complex as traders focus on moving away from recent long-term market lows.
2)
Even with federal support to keep packing and processing plants open, the logistics of moving to a more normal production schedule will take time. This could create additional uncertainty as the details of the plan are not yet fully disclosed.
3)
The actions taken through the pork industry due to nowhere to go with market-ready hogs in some areas over the last week is expected to have longer-term implications on pork supplies, which could tighten the supply chain through the end of the year.
3)
The focus on packing plants moving back to a more normal schedule in the future has quickly pulled aggressive futures market support away from the complex. This left nearby contracts with moderate gains Tuesday following strong expanded trading limits earlier in the day. Additional futures volatility may develop through the end of the week.
4)Strong underlying technical support has moved into lean hog futures through the last half of April. This has pushed June lean hog contracts over $12 per cwt higher over the last two weeks, creating additional market momentum through the oversold hog complex.4)
The strong shift higher in wholesale pork values through the last couple of weeks may limit demand growth if these gains are filtered through retail markets. Given the economic pressure and significant amount of consumers unemployed, demand for pork is expected to remain extremely sensitive as prices start moving higher.


#completecalfcare

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Trump Taking Executive Action to Keep Plants Open

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock markets closed steadily higher again on Tuesday but the biggest new of the day came that President Trump will be taking executive action to keep packing plants open. Hog prices shot higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.21 with a weighted average of $36.17 on 6,995 head sold. July corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 32.23 points and NASDAQ is down 122.43 points.
Specific details of President Trump's plan have yet to be revealed but it's understood that he will use the Defense Production Act to keep essential facilities open. As the livestock industry has been crippled by the effects of packing plants being shut down from COVID-19, this comes as fantastic news. More details will be reported when they are available.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts close modestly higher throughout the complex. June live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $84.70, August live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $90.52 and October live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $95.80. As seen in the lean hog contracts, steady, continual positive movements can add up over time and can be just as powerful as fast, massive movements. Given the uncertainty that the industry has faced over the last couple of months, a positive upward trend will be greatly appreciated even if it is slow moving. There was another light round of trade reported in Nebraska at $150, $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Trade is expected to wait until sometime after the FCE.
Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 76,000 head, 8,000 head less than a week ago and 45,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices close higher: choice up $18.98 ($330.82) and select up $22.10 ($320.88) with a movement of 99 loads (55.25 loads of choice, 18.84 loads of select, 11.35 loads of trim and 13.34 loads of ground beef). Not that it's uncommon anymore, but both choice and select cuts set new high standards for the new advancement on both price and gains for the day.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Regardless of the timeline of packing plants opening back up, there will be some short-term softness in the market as the industry has to work through the built up supply that has accumulated over the last couple of weeks.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts closed the day higher again, ranging from $0.35 to $1.00 higher. May feeders closed $0.35 higher at $118.50, August feeders closed $0.65 higher at $127.92 and September feeders closed $0.62 higher at $129.35. As the market closes higher again, sale barns look to their large grass special sales and seem optimistic, as buyers feel more comfortable buying with the board being slightly higher.
On Monday, at Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers sold steady to $4.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold $1.00 to $2.00 lower, except 800 to 900 pound heifers which sold $2.00 to $5.00 higher. The feeder market improved as the day progressed and the board closed higher. Steer calves sold $4.00 to $8.00 lower but weighs under 450 pounds were lightly tested. Heifer calves sold $4.00 to $10.00 lower, except anything over 500 pounds sold steady to $3.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 4/27/2020: down $1.03, $118.69.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog contracts stormed through Tuesday's closing higher on the board and in the cash market as well. June lean hogs closed $0.92 higher at $56.20, July lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $60.25 and August lean hogs closed $1.65 higher at $63.72. The market closed lower than it had traded for earlier in the day but still closed higher than Monday's close. The simultaneous movement from the board and from the cash market is extremely bullish as both markets need to work together. Pork cutouts total 299.53 loads with 277.54 loads of pork cuts and 21.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.78, $88.49. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 283,000 head - 71,000 head less than a week ago and 188,000 head less than a yea ago. The CME lean hog index 4/24/2020: up $1.26, $48.98.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to slightly higher. The announcement from President Trump that packing plants will be back up and running soon is a strong, bullish indication for the market.


#completeherdhealth

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Keep with Monday's Pace

General Comments
The livestock contracts continue to trade stronger heading into the noon hour fully higher again on Tuesday. The cash hog market traded slightly lower and cash cattle have yet to trade. July corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 44.42 points and NASDAQ is down 106.86 points. The livestock contracts continue to trade stronger heading into the noon hour fully higher again on Tuesday. The cash hog market traded slightly lower and cash cattle have yet to trade.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts have developed some resistance in the August through December contracts but other than that are trading mostly higher. June live cattle are up $0.10 at $84.20, August live cattle are down $0.10 at $90.30 and October live cattle are down $0.27 at $95.50. As the April contract is due to expire later this week, the interest has rolled over to the spot June contract. Cash cattle interest is still limited and packers don't seem overly worried about getting cattle inquired about. Packers bought a slim number of cattle again last week; 55,575 head for one-to-14-day delivery, and 2,432 head for 15-to-30-day delivery. Asking prices are around $100-plus in the South, and $160-plus in the North.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $15.04 ($326.88) and select up $16.79 ($315.57) with a movement of 58 loads (32.90 loads of choice, 8.46 loads of select, 7.33 loads of trim and 9.55 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's market with little pressure limiting the day. May feeders are up $0.55 at $118.70, August feeders are up $1.10 at $128.37 and September feeders are up $1.07 at $129.55. Sale barns are still selling grass cattle as interest remains strong and good runs of calves are plentiful.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog contracts are taking the day's limelight again, pushing contracts to expanded limits in some nearby contracts. June lean hogs are up $5.50 at $60.77, July lean hogs are up $5.02 at $63.45 and August lean hogs are up $4.57 at $66.65. The June contract is showing how powerful the slow, gradual progression and how small confident movements can be. But still the industry needs packing plants to come back to production to really help.
The projected lean hog index for 4/27/2020 is up $0.74 at $49.72, and the actual index for 4/24/2020 is up $1.26 at $48.98. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.30 with a weighted average $34.66, ranging from $32.00 to $37.00 on 4,465 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $34.19. Pork cutouts total 214.29 loads with 198.89 loads of pork cuts and 15.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.64, $87.35.

#completecalfcare

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Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Continued Surges in Wholesale Meat Values Finally Sparks Futures Interest

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cash cattle interest is still in the concept phase at this point of the week with increased showlist levels on Monday being no surprise after weeks of light buying by packers, which are struggling to keep the packing speed at the current levels. The concern that additional packing plants may either have reduced processing levels or close due to COVID-19 will continue to be the main concern over the near future. Monday's surge higher in wholesale beef values posted gains of nearly $20 per cwt in choice and select markets. The widening spread between cash and wholesale prices remains extremely concerning, but the focus on higher beef values has sparked underlying support to develop in futures trade early in the week. The surging wholesale meat values also remains a significant concern for long-term market direction. At this point, there is little indication that retail price levels have followed the recent move in wholesale prices higher over the last month. There are questions if prices will be able to adjust higher to cover boxed beef gains, or if retail price levels do surge higher, will demand evaporate. Given the growing number of unemployment and economic concerns, the ability to maintain strong retail beef demand will be essential once the packing industry is able to move back to a more normal pace. Firm follow-through support is expected in nearby futures early Tuesday, but continued uncertainty may limit stability as the day continues. Tuesday slaughter is expected at 89,000 head.
Lean hog futures surged higher Monday, hitting limit gains of $3.75 per cwt. The new trading limits are still taking some getting used to, but with expanded limits available and prices to move $5.50 per cwt through the Tuesday session, limit gains make the adjustment much easier to adjust to the changes that limit losses. The lean hog complex still continues to face major challenges as traders focus on potential direction to potentially open plants in the coming days. There seems to have been a change in the narrative the last several days with more and more focus on the importance of keeping plants running as much as possible, and plants already closed back into production. The focus on depopulating hog herds continues to gain traction. Although the pinch point right now is on market-ready hogs, there is likely to be a combined focus on depopulating both piglets and market-ready hogs, depending on farm situations. Others appear to be adjusting to slowing gains on hogs in the system in order to either hold market-ready hogs for the time being, or push off slaughter as much as possible. Any reduction in herd size is currently being viewed as bullish to the market, as these adjustments will take weeks or months to determine just how many hogs have been affected, while limiting short- and long-term supplies, tightening pork supplies the next several months. Slaughter Tuesday is expected at 345,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)Surging wholesale beef values has continued to focus on the potential tight supply of meat due to limited packer availability. This started to spark renewed interest in futures trade with strong triple-digit support moving through nearby live cattle trade Monday.1)The surging support in wholesale beef values continues to not only create a disconnect between wholesale beef values and cash markets, but the limited movement higher in retail prices to date may limit the ability to for wholesale boxed beef prices to maintain current levels.
2)
Strong meat demand at retail locations is expected to continue as the concern of tight supplies due to lighter packing plant operations will continue to be the focus in the meat industry over the near future.
2)
Even though there continues to be efforts to reopen businesses over a scheduled time period, the current pressure in food service demand may take weeks or months to rebuild. This will continue to limit the movement of higher value beef products through the system, which has essentially shut down over the last several weeks.
3)
Although devastating to producers, the continued talk of euthanizing hogs is sparking widespread market support as this will directly and quickly change the market supply situation of not only market-ready hogs, but potential long-term supplies through the fourth quarter of the year.
3)
Limit gains Monday is allowing for expanded trading limits Tuesday of $5.50 per cwt. The volatility in the market could easily spark widespread moves that could break away from current fundamental moves through the complex.
4)Limit futures gains sparked widespread buyer support Monday. The changing focus on the need to put even more focus on keeping production lines open in order to supply consumer needs is gaining widespread attention in futures trade.4)
The growing focus on euthanizing hog herds due to lack of processing outlets is creating additional uncertainty through the complex. This would have a devastating effect on individual producers, some who would likely not be able to recover from the losses.



#completecalfcare

Monday, April 27, 2020

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - The Kind of Mondays We Like

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock enthusiasts could get used to seeing the livestock complex trade like it did Monday! The lean hog market fared the best as both the cash and futures complex closed higher. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.69 with a weighted average of $34.81, ranging from $31.00 to $37.00 on 5,649 head sold. July corn is down 9 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 358.51 points and NASDAQ is up 95.64 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts grew more strength in nearby contracts as Monday afternoon came to a close. June live cattle closed $1.42 higher at $84.05, August live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $90.40 and October live cattle closed $1.30 higher at $95.77. As for cash cattle trade, there was a little trade that developed in parts of Nebraska for $150, but it wasn't enough to develop any sort of trend for the week. This week's asking prices have yet to surface and it's most likely that trade waits to develop until the later part of the week.
Boxed beef prices close higher: choice up $18.47 ($311.84) and select up $19.76 ($298.78) with a movement of 96 loads (53.87 loads of choice, 19.49 loads of select, 11.30 loads of trim and 11.74 loads of ground beef). Monday's slaughter is estimated at 81,000 head, down 5,000 head from a week ago and 39,000 head less than a year ago.
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With showlists larger again this week, its hard for prices to be much better than steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts closed the day out strong, raising prices $0.40 to $0.92. May feeders closed $0.70 stronger at $118.15, August feeders closed $0.87 higher at $127.27 and September feeders closed $0.92 higher at $128.72. The coffee talk around sale barns this week is knowing when grass buyers are going to be stocked. While buyers continue to buy and find cattle for summer grass, the market has been relatively active, but the concern is that when buyers are stocked up for the summer that prices are going to get soft, and in a hurry.
At Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction in Worthing, South Dakota, compared to last week, feeder steers sold $2.00 to $4.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 600 pounds were not well tested, but 600 to 700 pound heifers sold $5.00 to $10.00 lower and heifers over 700 pounds sold steady to $3.00 lower. Demand was moderate, quality was strong and cattle were in the right condition to go to grass. The market was most active on the packages of light weight cattle as those cattle simply have more options than those bigger cattle that are only suitable for finishing yards. The CME feeder cattle index 4/24/2020: down $0.24, $119.72.
LEAN HOGS:
Most of the lean hog contracts took advantage of the new CME hog limit, closing largely $3.75 higher. The day's progression was thankfully absorbed throughout the entire market as both cash prices and the board closed higher. June lean hogs closed $3.75 higher at $55.27, July lean hogs closed $3.75 higher at $58.42 and August lean hogs closed $3.75 higher at $62.07. For the contracts that closed limit higher, Tuesday's market will expand to $5.50 and if the Monday's momentum can carry into Tuesday, the hog market will undoubtedly take it. Pork cutouts total 294.10 loads with 270.36 loads of pork cuts and 23.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.23, $83.71. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 318,000 head, 47,000 head less than a week ago and 150,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/23/2020: up $1.44, $47.72.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Seeing that Monday captured two gains in the cash market -- higher in the morning and higher in the afternoon -- it wouldn't be surprising to see Tuesday's market simply trade steadily.


#completeherdhealth