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Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Markets Diverge

General Comments
Live cattle exhibit mixed prices with futures in a sideways trading pattern. Feeder cattle are making a valiant effort at regaining the losses of Tuesday. The market seems primed to move higher over a period of time, but this will not happen quickly. Chart resistance is about $2 above current levels, and if achieved, would set up a breakout to the upside. Hogs tried to roll higher following the pattern of the past two weeks in closer months, but futures seem to have run out of steam. Corn is 2 cents lower. The Dow is up 363 points with the Nasdaq up 172 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
This is the last trading day for October with futures surging $1.95 into the close, reaching $115.85. December will take over the spotlight and is trading at the low end of the trading range established since Oct. 10. Cash cattle show no activity with bids running $112-$114 and asking prices at $118. The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction Wednesday listed a mere 229 head, all for Kansas with no cattle sold, 229 listed as unsold and none listed as PO (passed offer). Boxed beef cut-outs are higher at midday. Choice are $0.22 higher with select up $1.21 with movement of 82 loads reported (58 loads of choice cuts, 15 loads of select cuts, and 9 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures are making a run higher, posting triple-digit gains in November-March contracts. It will take more buying from traders to eliminate the losses of Tuesday, but an effort seems to be underway. Technically, the market continues to struggle.
LEAN HOGS:
December continues to hold slightly higher, but has been unable to keep earlier gains with futures about $1 off the highs. Deferred contracts are lower as spreading continues. Cash prices on the National Direct morning cash report showed the average price $0.36 lower at $57.63 with a range of $52-$60 on 9,745 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant report posted 181 loads selling. Pork carcass values were down $1.06 at $76.61 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10.29 is $63.93, down $0.23, with a projected two-day index of $63.90, down $0.03.

#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Live and Feeder Cattle Futures Set for Moderate Opening at Midweek

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Look for bids and asking prices in feedlot country to start to take shape Wednesday morning. Showlists will surely be priced $2 to $3 higher as beef producers try hard to take advantage of appreciating beef carcass value. Having said that, significant trade volume may not develop until Thursday or Friday. Live and feeder cattle futures should open on a mixed basis with light trade volume.
The cash hog market is expected to resume business Wednesday with bids steady to $1 lower. Most expect that the week's kill will be seasonally large, possibly well over 2.6 million head. Lean hog futures are also expected to open on a mixed basis with nearby issues outperforming their deferred counterparts. 
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Late October beef demand continues to look very impressive. Cutouts jumped significantly on Tuesday.
1)
Last week's cattle harvest increased to 633,000 head and a further increase above 640,000 head is expected for this week. Weekly cattle kill is projected to run modestly above year-ago levels through the fall with fewer steers and heifers in the mix being partly offset by more cows.
2)
Cattle carcass weights eased a bit during the week ending Oct. 13. Steer weights eased 4 pounds to 899 lbs. and were 3 lbs. heavier than last year. Heifer weights eased by 4 lbs. to 831 lbs., 12 lbs. above a year ago.
2)
The U.S. dollar index has edged above the August high and above 97.00 to the highest since June 2017.This represents bad news for U.S. ag exports.
3)
Margins moved sideways last week for packers, as there was only modest weakness in the cutout combined with similar weakness in the cash hog markets. Both are expected to ease further this week, on par with each other again, maintaining packer margins at this strong, double-digit level that's cash supportive.
3)
The continued spread of African swine fever in China is supportive but prospects of record-large hog supplies in the weeks ahead continue to weigh on the market.
4)
Late-year holiday ham demand still has considerable potential to support fourth quarter pork carcass value.
4)
Hog harvests likely will exceed 2.5 million for the next few weeks and continue to push new record highs into the fall and winter.
OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS
CATTLE: (Oklahoma Farm Report) -- Several indications in the marketplace have been pointing to better beef demand thus far here in 2018. For example, many US customers on the international market have bought record levels of total beef pounds and at a higher value. Domestically, the exact numbers are a bit harder to pin down but seem to be doing well also. The numbers in the latest Cold Storage report, according to Extension Economist with Kansas State University Glynn Tonsor, are very encouraging.
"On the beef side, numbers are up 1% from the prior month and up 3% from the prior year. That's not surprising given the production values we have going on," Tonsor said. "To me, the fact those aren't up five to ten percent is the relevant point. So, I'd say that's good -- that's consistent with ongoing movement. I would summarize the beef numbers as an example that we are still moving product despite the fact that we're producing a lot. Indirectly, that's confirmation of a good demand situation."
Despite the positive numbers coming out in these reports -- Tonsor says there may be reason for concern in other areas outside of the beef market. Tonsor suggests the stock market and the recent volatility that has been observed is significant, given the implications. Although he is not to the point of raising any alarms, Tonsor does say that it is worth keeping an eye on in the event that any more cause for concern is raised.
"There is a host of grey clouds on the horizon that have people concerned. Discussions about increasing interest rates and the full impact of tariffs on our economy. Those types of things are underscoring volatility in the stock market and some of the uncertainty we've seen in markets is worth noting," he said...
HOGS: (Southeast AgNet) -- African swine fever could reshape the pork market in China.
A Rabobank report says the disease could accelerate a shift in pork production and boost import needs for 2019. Local supply shortages are being reported stemming from the ban on live hog transportation that was enacted to prevent further spread of the disease. The potential for radical change could "impact the international market," according to the report. Rabobank says China's pork imports in the first eight months of the year were down 0.6 percent from the year before and jumped ten percent year over year in August. The Chinese government said the country's sow herd declined 4.8 percent this year in August, which Rabobank said may be overestimated.
The decline in domestic pork production could allow other markets, including the United States, to become bigger suppliers of pork to China, pending the outcome of trade disputes.


#ccc

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Showing Losses

General Comments
Live cattle have been on a seesaw with futures trying to hold losses to a minimum. Front-month October is converging to cash, showing limited movement, but a slight gain. The same cannot be said for feeder cattle as they suffer triple-digit losses. Futures have broken through support and have increased technical bearishness. Lean hogs are diverging with closer months higher and later months lower. December corn is down a penny. The Dow is up 219 points while the Nasdaq is 53 points higher.
LIVE CATTLE:
Cattle futures remain entrenched in a sideways pattern. Traders are cautious as to the direction of cash this week. The feeling is that futures are well-priced in light of the cash market leaving little reason to get excited one way or the other. The October futures contract will cease trading Wednesday and is attempting to remain very close to underlying cash. December is priced nearly $3 above October, providing some encouragement. There is interest in doing business in the country, but packers and feedlots continue to do their song and dance, waiting to see who will make the effort to accomplish that business. Feedlots are offering $1-$3 higher than last week in the hopes that packers will need to step up again. Boxed beef cut-outs at midday are higher with choice up $2.19 and select up $1.70 with light movement of 48 loads reported (21 loads of choice cuts, 11 loads of select cuts, 5 loads of trimmings, and 11 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures remain under pressure with contracts punching through price support, but so far have been able to rebound slightly above that support. Technically, this could open the way for further price erosion as the market reacts to a somewhat benign live cattle market. Front-month November carries a premium of $4 to January.
LEAN HOGS:
Hogs have made a nice rally, supported by reoccurring news of African swine flu. Closer futures contracts show slight gains, while deferred contracts show slight declines. Cash price is higher on the Nation Direct morning cash report. The weighted average price is $0.43 higher at $58.13 per cwt with a range of $52 to $59.50 on 6,925 head sold. The National Pork Plant report reported 242 loads selling (204 loads of cuts and 38 loads of trim). The lean hog index for 10/26 is $64.16, down $0.45, with a projected two-day index of $63.95, down $0.23.

#chh

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Meat Futures Seem Staged to Open Moderately Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cash cattle trade will be quiet through the day with bids and asking prices poorly defined. Indeed, it seems like a reasonable bet that significant trade volume will be delayed until Thursday or Friday. Eventually, look for feedlot managers to price showlists $1 to $3 higher than last week. Live and feeder cattle futures should open moderately higher, supported by spillover buying and cash optimism.
Cash hog buyers should resume work Tuesday with bids steady to $1 lower. Ready-market hog numbers should be ample through the end of the year, lending packers plenty of leverage in the country. Lean hog futures are expected to open moderately higher, supported by firm cash business on Monday and limited short-covering. 
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Beef cutouts opened the week solidly higher with further price progress on Monday and box movement described as moderate-to-fairly active.
1)
New showlists distributed on Monday in feedlot country were mixed, although overall ready numbers appear to be somewhat larger than the previous total.
2)
The pork carcass value was marked nearly a buck higher Monday with all primals lending support except the loin.
2)
December live cattle futures tend to head lower in early November.
3)
The seasonal tendency is for December lean hogs to trade sideways in early November and then turn higher into December.
3)
Some early estimates call for this week's hog kill to be as large as 2,608,000 head. If realized, this figure would represent a 1.5% increase from last week and 6.8% over a year ago. This would also be a new all-time high for the weekly hog slaughter, extending past the old record of 2.589,000 head set last week.
4)
4)
While lean hog futures have rallied some in recent sessions, the short-term trend is bearish and the longer-term trend remains bearish.
OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS
CATTLE:(The Motley Fool) -- People all over the world still want their Big Macs, Chicken McNuggets, and of course, their McDonald's (NYSE:MCD)french fries -- but more and more of them would prefer not to have to go all the way to a McDonald's to get them. And the fast-food giant is obliging them, with an ongoing expansion of its delivery footprint that now includes more than 15,000 of its 37,000 locations.
CEO Steve Easterbook says that's only the beginning, and he laid out aggressive plans to continue that expansion during the chain's third-quarter earnings call. He also explained why he feels McDonald's has an edge in delivery over its rivals.
"We have a massive global footprint, which provides a distinct advantage by placing us closer to more customers than any of our competitors," he said. "We are focused on expanding coverage, growing demand, and innovating to increase efficiency and provide better service to our customers."
What's next for McDelivery?
In some major markets, among them the U.K., Australia and France, delivery now accounts for as much as 10% of sales at the locations that offer it, Easterbrook noted. The chain will bring the service to thousands of additional locations by the end of the year, when it forecasts the U.S. numbers will be around 9,000 out of a total of roughly 14,000 sites.
"We're working to encourage existing delivery customers to order more regularly as we also strive to raise awareness that McDonald's offers this convenient option," said Easterbrook.
Beyond that, the CEO said that innovation remains a priority. He noted that the delivery market is evolving rapidly, and said that McDonald's will continue to tweak its offerings.
"We are seeing improved speed and accuracy after completing an initiative early this year to integrate delivery orders into our point-of-sale systems in many of our restaurants," he said. "We are exploring additional innovation opportunities ranging from integrating delivery ordering through our mobile app, to new packaging that will protect the quality of our food, to new approaches that improve efficiency at our restaurants with the highest delivery volumes."
HOGS: (AP) -- The world's largest pork producer says it plans to install covers over pig waste lagoons at most of its North Carolina hog farms.
WRAL-TV reports Smithfield Foods also says in a Thursday statement it would install new "low trajectory" tools to spread hog waste on nearby fields, replacing the sprinklers some neighbors complain spray feces into the wind.
Smithfield says it'll install projects to cover lagoons and capture methane the waste emits in an effort to convert it into renewable biogas and cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Southern Environmental Law Center attorney Blakely Hildebrand says in a Friday statement the plan doesn't solve pollution problems from the lagoons that affect poor, rural communities across eastern North Carolina and have triggered nuisance lawsuits. Hildebrand says Smithfield could've invested in more responsible technology, especially amid intense storms.

#chh

Monday, October 29, 2018

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Lean Hog Futures Launch Tail-End of October With Solid Price Progress

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Activity in feedlot country was typically quiet as showlist assessment proved to be the major order of the day. The new offering appears to be mixed, larger in Nebraska and Colorado, about steady in Kansas and smaller in Texas. Overall, late-month supplies appear to be somewhat larger than the previous week. According to the closing report, the national hog base totaled $0.27 higher at $57.60 ($51-$59). December corn lost about a penny Monday with buyers difficult to recruit in the face of constructive harvest weather. The stock market closed down 245 points with the Nasdaq off 116.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures opened business for the week on a mixed basis, with settlements ranging from 42 cents higher in nearby August to off 40 cents to $1.16 in the deferreds. Beef cut-outs closed higher with the choice up 37 cents ($213.47) and select up 52 cents ($198.03). Box demand was called moderate to fairly good with light offerings.
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:
Steady-$2 higher. Look for a typically quiet Tuesday with both bids and asking pricing poorly defined.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder futures closed narrowly mixed in light volume. On an estimated run of 11,800 head (i.e.., up from 7,033 from the prior week and greater than 8,743 last year), Oklahoma City sold steers and heifers on an uneven basis, ranging from $3 higher to $3 lower. CME cash feeder index: 10/26: $153.56, off $0.45.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean issues got up on the right side of the bed to start the week. The carcass value closed 93 cents higher, supported by all primals except the loin. CME cash lean index for 10/25: $64.61, off $0.42. (DTN Projected Lean Index for 10/26: $64.16, off $0.25).
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:
Steady-$1 lower. Hog buyers are expected to resume work in †he morning with bids steady to $1 higher.


#ccc

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Giving Back Gains

General Comments
Cattle markets have shown losses since shortly after the opening bell. The October live cattle contract has been the exception with higher price as it nears the last trading day Wednesday. Higher cash on Friday will increase the resolve of feedlots to set higher offers, hoping that packers will remain aggressive. Hogs have been on a roll the past 1 1/2 weeks, extending those gains in closer months. African swine fever stories continue to surface, adding support to prices.
Corn futures have been mixed trading on both sides of unchanged. Harvest progress is expected to show steady progress over the past week. The Dow is up 99 points at 24,788 while the Nasdaq is down 7 points at 7,160.
LIVE CATTLE:
October live cattle are converging to cash with the final trading day on Wednesday. This supports futures with it being the only contract showing gain. The rest of the complex is under pressure with prices hovering near the lows. The surge of futures on Friday is nearly being eliminated. Traders may be a little concerned cash cattle will be unable to sell at a higher price. Boxed beef cut-outs at midday are lower with (choice) down $0.48 and (select) down $0.47. Volume has been light with just 24 load reported (14 loads of choice cuts, 5 loads of select cuts, and 5 loads of ground beef.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle are struggling in December while later contracts are holding well. Spillover selling pressure from the weakness in live cattle has the November contract eliminating the gain of Friday. Futures seem to be carving out a trading range.
LEAN HOGS:
Futures continue trend higher as the market feeds on further reports of African swine fever. Strong support is confined to December and February contracts with last half of the year contracts posting losses. Cash prices are weaker on the National Direct morning cash report. The weighted average price is $56.42, down $0.91 per cwt with a range of $51-$57 on the sales of 7,857 head. The National Pork Plant report showed 113 loads selling. Pork carcass valued added $1.75 per cwt at $78.34 per cwt. Projected lean hog index for 10/26 is $64.16, down $0.45.


#chh

Monday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts to Open Bullish on Late-Week Spending

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Activity in feedlot country should be typically quiet, restricted to the assessment of new showlists. Our guess is that late-month ready numbers will be about steady with last week. It's a sure bet that beef producers will be eager to price fed cattle higher based upon Friday's late-cash success. The cattle board Monday should open significantly higher, supported by late October cash strength and technical buying interest.
The cash hog trade seems likely to open the last short week of October with mixed prices and uneven buying strategies based on geographical supply and demand differences. Hogs on the East Coast where slaughter capacity has not increased are available, while hogs in the western regions of the country appear to be finding a small degree of competition thanks to greater kill capacity (e.g., Seaboard/Triumph). Lean hog contracts should open moderately higher, supported by spillover buying and an imbalance between packing capacity and late-year market hog numbers. 
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Impressive packer spending in feedlot country on Friday suggests that early fourth quarter beef supplies are at least being temporarily pushed by fall product demand.
1)
USDA reported the retail of all fresh beef value for September at $5.75 per pound, down 1% from August but 1% above last year. The retail choice beef value was nearly $5.94 per pound, which was 2% lower than August but 3% higher than last year.
2)
The weak basis and strong premiums in the late fall and winter live cattle contracts will hearten producers resolve to resist lower bids from packers.
2)
For the week ended Oct. 22, there were modest declines in the noncommercial long side of live cattle futures and a modest increase in the short side for noncommercials.
3)
China continues to battle African swine fever, with the situation worsening after initial attempts to contain the virus.
3)
For the week ended Oct. 22, noncommercial traders reduced their long position in lean hog futures by 1,900 contracts, resulting in a net-long of 4,200.
4)
The futures market was quite bullish last week, with strong gains not only on the nearby but the summer months as well. The nearby contract found more than $6, as the spot cash hogs that had been heading lower found mild support. Hog buyers are keeping prices slightly supported in the western portions of production country, not indicative of stronger seasonal demand for pork but rather an imbalance between packer capacity (increasing) and current availability of hogs. Such an imbalance could continue for weeks to come.
4)
Seasonal highs for the cutout are likely behind us and carcass value is likely headed lower, but declines are going to be limited until hogs show up in volume. Hams and bellies will be key over the next few weeks for how much lower the cutout can move.
OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS
CATTLE:(Drovers Journal) -- There are many different options to consider in a winter feeding program. Cost of purchased grains or hay, nutritional value of feedstuffs, the equipment needed to feed, stockpiled forages, the types of cattle being fed. All of these considerations will weigh on determining what direction to go with feeding cattle in the winter. Here are a few tips from Erika Lundy, Iowa State Extension beef specialist, to think of for winter feeding:
1. Grazing Corn Stalks or Cover Crops An underutilized source of winter nutrition are corn stalks. States in the Corn Belt have lots of access to corn stalks, but a limiting factor for many producers is the lack of fencing surrounding fields and water. A hot wire fence is one simple solution if it is too late to build a barb wire fence. However, getting stock water to fields might be more difficult, so grazing crops fields might be contingent on water access.
"Usually with corn stalks, we start to see a decrease in value after about 60 days after that corn grain has been harvested," Lundy says.
Grazing corn stalks in late fall can help take pressure off of traditional pasture allowing for stockpiling grass or another fallow grain field can be planted to a cover crop mix to graze in the winter.
"If we can extend our grazing season we are much better off on cost savings than harvesting and keeping stored winter feed," Lundy says. In the first year of grazing cover crops Lundy recommends using a single forage like wheat or rye to try out the program. Then a producer can start integrating cocktail mixes with brassicas and legumes once they're more comfortable.
2. Feeding Hay A concern Lundy is hearing from producers is the price of hay. With higher priced hay it is even more important that it is all utilized, so reducing waste should be a priority.
Lundy believes producers should evaluate their hay feeders to make sure stored forages are being utilized to help cost efficiency. Feeding a total mixed ration with grain and ground up hay is another way to help control waste, too.
3. Feeding Grains "Our grains, corn and beans, both are pretty cheap, relatively speaking right now," Lundy says. This presents an opportunity to add additional grain sources such as corn, corn co-products and soybean hulls to diets that can help stretch forages while increasing nutrients like protein in diets.
However, she advises producers to seek guidance when looking at changing their rations.
"When we s tart talking about trying to change from what we typically do it's a good idea to work with a local nutritionist or your local extension specialist to help you analyze some of those differences," Lundy says.
HOGS: (Time) -- The cult of Starbucks' Pumpkin Spice Latte has got nothing on the McRib devotees. McDonald's is once again bringing back the cult favorite back to its menu. And this time, it can be delivered to your doorstep. The love-it-or-hate-it, barbecue, sauce-smothered, boneless pork sandwich will be available at 9,000 locations for a limited time this year, starting Oct. 29. And, for the first time, McDonald's is teaming with Uber Eats to make it even more accessible to its passionate fan base.
"While McDonald's has ushered in many new items this year -- such as fresh beef in our quarter-pound burgers -- we know our fans love this limited time classic," said Mike Haracz, McDonald's manager of culinary innovation chef in a press release. "That's why we wanted to bring the McRib to as many fans as possible this year.]The McRib is kind of like a prairie dog in that it pops up at random locations -- and your local Micky D's might not be one of them, even though the distribution is fairly widespread this year. To help you out, the fast food chain conveniently has a McDonald's Finder app to see if it's on the menu at a nearby store. The UberEats app will also help you locate the sammich. The company didn't say how long McDonald's menus will feature the McRib this time around. (It was last available in November 2017.) Fans, though, rejoiced on social media, while haters... well, they hated.
The McRib made its debut in 1981, but was pulled from the McDonald's menu four years later due to poor sales. It made another run from 1989 through 2005. Since then, it has been a seasonal item, and the scarcity has made it a legend among fast food fanatics.


#completeherdhealth

Friday, October 26, 2018

Friday Afternoon Livestock Market Update - Livestock Futures Close Late-Week Market Solidly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Light to moderate trade finally surfaced in most areas of cattle feeding country Friday with most ready steers and heifers selling significantly higher. A moderate to active trade developed in most areas Friday morning with live deals ranging from $114 to $115, ($4 higher in Texas, $3 higher in Kansas, and $4 to $5 higher in Nebraska). Dressed deals in the North are at $180, $6 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. According to the closing report, the national hog base totaled $0.54 lower at $57.06 ($52-$58.50). Corn prices ended with a strong late-week recovery thanks to a better start to 2018-2019 exports, closing 6-7 cents higher. The stock market closed 296 points lower with the Nasdaq off 151.

LIVE CATTLE:
Jazzed by greater wholesale spending and more aggressive procurement in feedlot country by packers, live issues settled $0.52 to $1.32 higher. Beef cut-outs closed significantly higher with the choice up $0.37 ($213.47) and select up $0.52 ($198.83). Box demand was called good with light offerings.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:
Steady-$2 higher. Look for the feedlot trade to resume in slow gear Monday as packers focus almost exclusively on the assessment of new showlists. We expect the late-month offering to be steady to somewhat larger in size.

FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder market closed moderately higher with contracts up 32 to 85 higher. Stronger deferred live futures were clearly supported of feeder issues. CME cash feeder index: 10/25: $154.01, up $0.36.

LEAN HOGS:
Lean contracts settled 77 to 182 higher, boosted by late-week fundamentals. The carcass value closed moderately lower, pressured by ribs, hams and bellies ribs and bellies. Pork cut-out: $76.59, off $0.58. CME cash lean index for 10/24: $65.03, off $0.43. (DTN Projected Lean Index for 10/25: $64.61, off $0.42.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

Steady-$1 lower. Hog buyers should resume procurement on Monday with steady/weak bids.


#ccc

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Late-Week Buying Develops Friday

General Comments
Firm market gains have developed across the entire complex with traders focusing on triple-digit gains sweeping through the entire complex. There is growing support in live cattle and lean hog trade based on a combination of futures and cash market support. Corn markets are higher in light trade. December corn futures are 7 cents higher. Stock markets are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 133 points lower while Nasdaq is down 66 points.

LIVE CATTLE:
Strong underlying support is slowly developed midday Friday in live cattle trade. This price support is offsetting the previous market pressure earlier in the week and helping traders to cover short positions. Triple-digit gains are seen in nearby trade with lightly traded October contracts holding a $1.65 per cwt rally based on strong underlying support moving into all contracts. Cash cattle trade is starting to develop in most areas through late morning with deals seen at $114 to $115 per cwt live basis and $180 per cwt dressed. This is $3 to $6 per cwt higher than last week's price levels, and helping to support underlying bids in other areas. Some additional trade may develop through the end of the day. Asking prices are holding at $115 and higher live and $180 dressed on cattle still on showlists. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.02 higher (select) and up $0.62 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 48 total loads reported (26 loads of choice cuts, 6 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 12 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:
Active buying midday Friday has offset early market pressure that has swept through the complex over the last couple of days. End-of-week short covering was the initial spark that led to increased market support Friday morning, but additional buying is being fueled by active support through nearby trade. November futures are holding a $1.37 per cwt rally, moving prices back above $155 per cwt. Feeder cattle futures remain stuck in a wide sideways trend, and the recent shifts higher are sustaining this market move.

LEAN HOGS:
Firm gains have quickly developed midday Friday in nearby lean hog futures as traders seemed to quickly dispel any growing concern that follow-through weakness will move into the complex through the end of the week. Nearby trade is holding prices 50 cents to $1 per cwt higher with traders looking for additional follow through support based on the market rally midweek. Even though trade remains sluggish and prices are not expected to show significant additional improvement through the end of the session, this is setting the tone for renewed buying activity early next week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.17 lower at $56.85 per cwt with the range from $55.50 to $57.63 on 4,937 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 204 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values slipped $0.12 per cwt at $77.05 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10/24 is at $65.03 down 0.43 with a projected two-day index of 64.61, down 0.42.

#ccc

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Paper Set to Open Higher in Anticipation of Greater Country Spending

GENERAL COMMENTS:

.

BULL SIDE
BEAR SIDE
1)
The beef carcass value continues to appreciate, motivating packers to own large live cattle inventories.
1)
The U.S. is refusing to resume trade negotiations with China until Beijing comes up with a concrete proposal to address Washington's complaints about forced technology transfers and other economic issues, said officials on both sides of the Pacific.
2)
The United States has lifted restrictions on some imports of fresh and frozen pork from Poland, specifically from facilities that are in contiguous areas free of the highly contagious hog disease African swine fever, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday.
2) A scorching drought in Canada's heartland that made grass worthless for feed is causing farmers to consider culling as much as 20% of the national cattle herd before winter in a "heartbreaking" nationwide effort.
3)
China reported a new African swine fever outbreak in the province of Guizhou on Thursday. The new case, the first confirmed in the southwestern province, was found on a small farm with 10 pigs in Biji city, Guizhou, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement published on its website.
3)
The pork carcass value continues to soften in the face of mounting market hog supplies.
4)
Japan found African swine fever in packed pork sausage being carried into the country by a foreigner coming from Beijing early this month, the nation's agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.
4)
The latest monthly trade data has been tabulated -- for August -- and U.S. beef trade continued its impressive performance with monthly exports up 9% and year-to-date export totals up 14.2% year over year.
 
OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS

CATTLE:(Cargill) -- Cargill has developed an industry-first robotic cattle driver aimed at improving animal welfare and employee safety. The robots are designed into move cattle from pens to the harvest area, reducing stress to the animals by minimizing their proximity to human activity. 
Employees operate the robots from a catwalk located above the pens, reducing safety risks by keeping those who work in the cattle yard portion of processing plants at a greater distance from the 1300-pound animals.

"The robotic cattle driver developed by Cargill is a major innovation in the handling and welfare of farm animals," said Temple Grandin, professor of Animal Sciences at Colorado State University. "This device will lead to huge strides in employee safety while moving large animals and reduce the stress on cattle across the country." 

Cargill Protein spent two years developing the prototype, with significant input from animal welfare experts including Grandin, beef plant employees and engineers from equipment supplier Flock Free.

Using waving automated arms, blowers and audio recordings to move cattle in a desired direction, the robots can operate in rain, snow or mud, with no delay in daily operations. Testing was conducted at Cargill's Wyalusing, Penn., and Schuyler, Neb., beef processing facilities to determine a design and operational attributes of the robot that would effectively improve animal welfare and employee safety before being implemented at the company's U.S. and Canadian beef plants.

"The average bovine weighs almost three quarters of a ton, and our plant processes several thousand head of cattle daily," said Sammy Renteria, general manager of the Cargill beef plant in Schuyler, Neb. "This innovation provides a much safer workplace for our employees and allows them to develop new technology expertise as they manage and operate the robot." 

The robotic cattle drivers are currently being implemented at Cargill Protein beef plants in the U.S. and Canada. They are manufactured by the New Jersey-based company Flock Free. Cargill believes the robotic cattle driver has multiple applications for improving animal handling and worker safety across livestock and poultry supply chains and is working toward making them available for use throughout the industry.

HOGS:(WNAX)-- National Pork Producers Council officials while pleased with the recent USMCA trade agreement like Canada and Mexico want to see the U.S. lift steel and aluminum tariffs on those countries. NPPC's Dave Warner says that will help make the USMCA work better. He says that would mainly help with U.S. pork trade to Mexico.

He says the overall remake of NAFTA through the new USMCA kept all the previous ag benefits to the U.S. and pork roughly intact.

Warner says building off USMCA, America's trade negotiators can now move ahead with a bilateral deal with Japan and possibly even the Philippines which is a huge potential market for American pork.


#completeherdhealth

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Close on a Mixed Basis as Traders Wait for Late-Week Buying Energy

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Once again, the cash cattle trade was all about asking prices and bids and little about actual business. Bids of $109 and $174-$175 once again failed to prompt asking prices of $111-$113 and $180 to get the ball rolling. According to the closing report, the national hog base totaled $0.25 lower at $57.60 ($52-$58.50). The corn trade closed 6-7 cents lower, checked by defensive export sales. The stock market recovered with the Dow up 401 points and the Nasdaq better by 209.

LIVE CATTLE:
Spot October closed marginally higher, but the rest of the complex was well underscored, closing 52 cents to $1.27 lower. Beef cut-outs closed significantly higher with choice up to $171 and select up $0.49 ($198.31). Box demand was called moderate to fairly good and light-to-moderate offerings.

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:
Steady-$2 higher. Cattle buying interest should finally kick into gear Friday as packers move to cover short-term slaughter needs.

FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeders closed substantially lower, pressured by long liquidation and defensive live futures. CME cash feeder index: 10/24: $153.65, off $1.25.

LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures closed mixed, up 20 to off 75 cents. The carcass value closed moderately lower with higher ribs and hams checked by lower bellies and butts. Pork cut-out: $77.17, off $0.37. CME cash lean index for 10/23: $65.46, off $0.49 (DTN Projected Lean Index for 10/24: $65.03, off $0.43.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

Steady. Opening bids in the morning should be about steady.


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Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Widespread Price Pressure Develops

LIVE CATTLE:
Mixed prices are seen through the complex with October futures holding light to moderate gains while firm pressure has held through the rest of the complex. Triple-digit losses in feeder cattle futures has sparked midday pressure in most live cattle trade with most contracts holding 50 cent to $1 per cwt losses. Cash cattle prices have improved through the morning with live bids seen at $109 per cwt, while bids are seen in the North at $174 to $175 per cwt. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.60 higher (select) and up $1.40 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 80 total loads reported (43 loads of choice cuts, 11 loads of select cuts, 13 loads of trimmings, 14 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Triple-digit losses have quickly moved through the feeder cattle at midday following mixed trade early in the session. Most contracts are $1 to $1.50 per cwt lower as very little long term market moves seen in the complex. November contracts are holding $1.45 per cwt losses as overall weakness has swept through the complex following a failed attempt to rebuild market stability early in the week.
LEAN HOGS:
Mixed trade is seen through the morning Thursday in lean hog futures as prices are seen from 55 cent per cwt lower to 47 cents per cwt higher. Nearby gains have focused on follow through buyer support following limit gains Wednesday. Deferred futures are under light to moderate pressure as traders are more focused on position taking, than any fundamental or technical moves seen in the complex. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.54 lower at $57.15 per cwt with the range from $54.00 to $58.00 on 3,485 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 147 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values added $0.26 per cwt at $77.80 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10/23 is at $65.46 down 0.49 with a projected two-day index of 65.03, down 0.43.


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Thursday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Hog Contracts Staged to Open With Significant Spillover Strength

GENERAL COMMENTS:
While we're still waiting for someone to throw out the first ball in the feedlot championship this week, likely that potential will start to get more real Thursday. Look for starter bids around $111 in the South and $174 to $175 in the North. Yet if asking prices hold firm around $115 in the South and $180 in the North, it could mean business will be delayed until Friday. Live and feeder futures should open moderately higher, supported by residual buying and feedlot bullishness.
Lean hog futures are set to open significantly stronger based on Wednesday's surging board. Packer margins remain quite attractive, explaining why Saturday kill plans could amount to close to 192,000 head. Lean futures should open moderately higher, boosted by follow-through buying interest and decent process margins. 
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Last week's slow movement in Kansas and Texas, and limited traffic so far this week in the southern tier of feedlot country, should mean that some area packers are moving into the tail end of the week extremely short bought.
1)
The structure of live cattle futures clearly does not encourage current marketing. The premium on December has widened to more than $7, compared to the five-year average of a premium near one dollar. The weak basis and strong premiums in the late fall and winter contracts will encourage producers to resist lower bids from the packers.
2)
Beef cutouts continue to have a firm undertone as the week proceeds, encouraging well-margined processors to be supportive of recent cash gains.
2)
Noncommercials had a minor decline in their net-long position in live cattle futures, while total open interest declined by more than 10,000 contracts from the recent highs of last week.

3)
Lean hog futures shot higher Wednesday, with the nearby contracts ending the day limit up while the late spring and summer 2019 contracts posted new life-of-contract highs. African swine fever in China, which may boost U.S. pork exports down the road, were supportive.
3)
For the week ended Oct. 20. Iowa barrows and gilts averaged 282.9 pounds, .1 lb. heavier than the prior week and 1.2 lbs. bigger than the prior year.
4)
The seasonal tendency is for December lean hog futures to chop sideways to lower over the next couple of weeks before trending back higher in November.
4)
The discount in December lean hogs compared to the cash market is reflective of trader expectations of a significantly lower cash market late this year.
OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS
CATTLE:(NCBA) -- This article is sponsored by National Cattlemen's Beef Association, a contractor to the beef checkoff. The U.S. beef industry has made progress improving its sustainability, but there's room to do more. Further improvements are a full supply chain effort. With one of the most complex supply changes in the world, a full supply chain effort means that cow-calf producers, feedlot operators, universities and research institutes, beef packers and processors, retailers, food service companies and even consumers have a role to play in improving the sustainability of beef, as the chart below illustrates.
How about some specifics? Below are contributions from Myriah Johnson at Noble Research Institute in Ardmore, Oklahoma, and Kimberly Stackhouse-Lawson at JBS-USA in Greeley, Colorado, that outline just a taste of their efforts to improve beef's sustainability.
A onprofit research institute focused on healthy soils helps to coordinate a beef sustainability pilot
The Noble Research Institute, with industry partners, is involved in a two-year beef sustainability pilot project testing the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef metrics and indicators. This pilot aims to improve the sustainability of the entire beef production chain and act as a model for the U.S. beef industry.
This pilot also provides the opportunity to compile valuable information from the ranch all the way through the carcass on a production scale. Typically, a beef producer's information about their animal stops at the ranch gate when the animal is sold. The project will provide the animal's feedyard performance (feed efficiency) and carcass information back to the farmer or rancher and create a unique educational opportunity; not only are producers able to learn how their animals performed, but how they stacked up against other project cattle and other cattle on feed outside of the project during the same period. In their efforts to improve, beef producers can use this information to better understand the impacts of certain practices on sustainability and identify opportunities for improvement.
This pilot project also provides the opportunity to investigate industry issues that hinder sustainability, such as bovine respiratory disease, which will generate knowledge not only for pilot project participants, but for the industry as a whole. Gathering such comprehensive information promotes the feedback loop between producers, researchers and across all other sectors of the supply chain. By working together to understand and address the challenges that we each face, we can achieve our goal of continuous improvement.
HOGS: (CNNN) -- First, Beijing slapped tariffs on American soybeans. Now, it wants to wean its farmers off them altogether.
China has been facing a potential soybean shortage after it put a new 25% tariff on importing them from the United States in July, part of the escalating trade war between the two countries.
China is the world's biggest buyer of soybeans, using them as a protein-rich feed for livestock such as pigs and chickens. More than a third of its supply comes from the United States.
Beijing's solution to get by without US beans? Give the animals less to eat.
One of the country's top industry groups this month proposed cutting the amount of protein used in livestock feeds, saying animals could get by with less than is required at the moment. The government-run China Feed Industry Association said a reliance on imported soybeans is creating a "bottleneck" for the country's farming industry.
But getting millions of Chinese farmers to reduce the amount of foreign soybeans eaten by their pigs is a daunting task that is likely to take a long time to carry out and could cause disruption throughout the country's agricultural industry
The plan would inflict further pain on US farmers already smarting from the tariffs and could eventually mean China no longer needs American soybeans at all.
"It's directly linked to the US-China trade war," said Loren Puette, the director of research firm ChinaAg in Taiwan. "The implication is that China will completely halt all future imports of US soybeans."
China has alternative soybean sources, the biggest is Brazil, but they don't produce enough to replace its imports from the United States.
"Sourcing soybeans from a bunch of trade partners is both expensive and inefficient," said Even Pay, a Beijing-based agriculture analyst at research firm China Policy. "Companies are looking for cheaper, alternative sources of protein."
Some local Chinese governments are encouraging farmers to grow soybeans instead of other crops, but analysts say China is a long way from being able to produce anywhere near enough to meet its own needs.
A long-term shift by China away from importing US soybeans would have serious consequences for American farmers, who sold more than $12 billion worth of soybeans to the country last year, their largest export market.
Five years ago, Beijing temporarily stopped accepting shipments of genetically modified American corn, another important animal feed, prompting Chinese farmers to buy other crops like sorghum and barley. Chinese demand for US corn never fully recovered, according to Pay.
American soybean farmers have spoken out repeatedly about the threat to their livelihood from the trade war.
Paul Burke, senior director of the US Soybean Export Council in Shanghai, said he thinks the Chinese government is trying "to minimize the import of any US soybeans" with its plan. He expects Chinese demand for American soybeans to fall if the proposals are implemented.
In August, there were already signs that China was shunning American soybeans after imposing tariffs on them the month before.
"The US soybeans are not allowed to be imported, you can't get it even if you want to," Xu Limin, a sales manager at Hebei Power Sea Feed Technology, a Chinese company that last year imported thousands of tons of US soybean products, told CNN at the time.
"Imports from the US have been almost nonexistent in recent months," analysts at research firm Fitch Solutions wrote in a note to clients this week. That's largely because soybeans are typically harvested in Brazil in the first half of the year and in the United States in the last quarter, they noted.
The real test will be the next few months when Brazilian supplies dry up.
"China will have to import some soybeans from the US in the coming months," the Fitch analysts said, predicting it will switch back to Brazilian ones as soon as they become available again early next year.

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