Monday, November 30, 2020

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Contracts See Mixed Support

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

Monday was a fruitful day for both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts, but the live cattle market's luck wasn't as rich. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.15 with a weighted average of $56.67 on 10,190 head. March corn is down 7 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 271.73 points and NASDAQ is down 7.11 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Monday wasn't at all what the live cattle market had hoped for following last week's advancements on both the board and throughout the cash cattle market. With boxed beef prices trailing higher, feedlots still have an opportunity to move this week's markets higher, but doing so is always easier if the board is supportive. December live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $110.17, February live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $112.87 and April live cattle closed $0.55 lower at $116.40. Monday's cash cattle market was at a mere standstill without asking prices being known and without bids surfacing. Trade is largely expected to develop later in the week as feedlots plan to move the market higher once again. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.83 ($243.68) and select up $1.75 ($222.43) with a movement of 84 loads (53.27 loads of choice, 11.57 loads of select, 11.97 loads of trim and 6.97 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. When cash cattle trades this week, it will most likely be for higher prices if feedlots work together and rally the market. Moving the market at least $1.00 to $2.00 higher isn't at all out of the picture.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Right before the clock rang for the noon hour, support started to develop in the feeder cattle market and by the day's end the market closed fully higher. January feeders really attracted trader's attention as the market was not only able to close above the $140 threshold, but slightly above $141. January feeders closed $1.22 higher at $141.05, March feeders closed $0.97 higher at $139.97 and April feeders closed $0.75 higher at $141.07.

At Jopling Regional Stockyard in Carthage, Missouri, compared to a week ago, steer calves under 650 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 higher and steers over 650 pounds sold $1.00 to $4.00 lower. Heifers weighing under 500 pounds and over 800 pounds sold steady while heifers between 500 to 800 pounds sold $2.00 to $4.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 27: up $1.35, $138.90.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a prosperous day for the nearby lean hog contracts as the market saw substantial support and closed mostly higher. December lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $67.57, February lean hogs closed $1.32 higher at $68.57 and April lean hogs closed $1.02 higher at $71.40. Pork cutout values thankfully closed higher but not in a strong enough fashion to make one think that the market is sold on trading higher. Pork cutouts total 289.57 loads with 232.42 loads of pork cuts and 57.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.13, $80.09. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 497,000 head, steady with a week ago and 1,000 head more than year ago. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 25: down $0.23, $67.15.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Following the holiday weekend, packers stepped up and bought a considerable number of hogs and moved the market slightly stronger. Tuesday may be able to find some of the same as packers look to ramp up processing speeds into the year's end.


#completecalfcare


Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Contracts Looking for Support

 General Comments

As Monday nears the noon hour, the lean hog market sees support rise from both the futures market and from midday cutout values while the cattle market trades mixed. Live cattle contracts are still trading fully lower but there's mild support beginning to develop in the feeder cattle complex. March corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 356.70 points and NASDAQ is down 70.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE

Even with the bullish cattle on feed report, higher cash cattle trade last week and a supported futures market last week, Monday's live cattle contracts aren't feeling the same supported, joyful spirit. December live cattle are down $0.35 at $110.27, February live cattle are down $0.05 at $113.20 and April live cattle are down $0.05 at $116.90. Thankfully boxed beef prices are showing positive figures again and will hopefully continue to do so into the week. Feedlots have their eyes on higher trade again this week and could very easily get to stronger levels if the board starts to trade higher and if boxed beef prices can continue to secure profits.

Showlists this week are lighter in the Texas, but slightly larger in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado.

Last week's negotiated cash sales totaled 89,519 head. Given that it was a holiday, last week's movement was rather impressive! Of the 89,519 head that sold, 61,625 head are committed for delivery in the next two weeks while the remaining 27,894 head are for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.17 ($244.02) and select up $1.48 ($222.16) with a movement of 45 loads (25.29 loads of choice, 6.61 loads of select, 8.31 loads of trim and 4.99 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

Throughout most of Monday's morning trade, both cattle contracts were scaling lower but as the noon hour approaches the feeder cattle market has seen considerable support surface. January feeders are up $0.70 at $140.52, March feeders are up $0.50 at $139.50 and April feeders are up $0.40 at $140.72. The $140 threshold has been a short-term resistance level that nearby feeder cattle contracts are aiming to ahold of, and so long as Monday's support can maintain the market may be able to close above that level in the spot January contract.

LEAN HOGS

Over the last month we have been talking about the need for pork cutout values to rally so that the hog market can scale out of its sideways wrap and Monday's morning cutout values have surely helped the market do exactly that. With morning cutout values over $8.00 higher, the market has a considerable chance of close higher this afternoon and encouraging higher trade again Tuesday. December lean hogs are up $1.05 at $66.92, February lean hogs are up $1.02 at $68.27 and April lean hogs are up $0.77 at $71.15.

The projected lean hog index for 11/27/2020 is down $0.34 at $66.81 and the actual index for 11/25/2020 is down $0.23 at $67.15. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.09 with a weighted average of $56.43, ranging from $50.00 to $57.50 on 6,610 head and a five-day rolling average of $57.02. Pork cutouts total 114.30 loads with 97.58 loads of pork cuts and 16.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $8.17, $88.13.


#completeherdhealth


Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Trade Attempts to End November Strong

 General Comments:

Cash cattle markets remain quiet early Monday morning with both sides assessing overall holiday week movement. The underlying support in cash markets seen ahead of the Thanksgiving break may spark some additional movement through the first week of December. Cash cattle prices last week were reported at mostly $111 per cwt live and mostly $174 per cwt dressed. This is $1 (live)and $2 (dressed) per cwt higher than the previous week with most of the business developing on Wednesday. Packers are expected to be focused on post-holiday inventory taking, while showlist distribution will be seen through feedlots, although bids and asking prices are not expected until later in the week. There will be significant attention given to the release of average cash prices Monday morning, which will help create a baseline for the upcoming week, and likely the month of December. Futures trade is expected to remain mixed as increased volume is likely to move back into the complex. The overall support across the complex in late November continues to add expectations of moderate price momentum through the end of the year, although trade will remain very dependent on the ability to sustain and continue gains in beef values. The pullback in boxed beef values Friday is not expected to shake the market significantly due to "holiday trade", but at the same time, traders are starting to become very cautious in the event that recent upward market movement starts to wane in the coming days.

Strong underlying market support remains firmly planted in lean hog futures trade following the rally over the last couple of weeks. Even though prices eroded during the holiday-shortened Friday session, prices remain near resistance levels, with the opportunity to end the month of November at month-long highs. It is still uncertain just how active traders will become during the opening minutes of trade, but the focus on firming pork values late last week could help to regain moderate-to-active buying interest, which has hovered on the sidelines over the last few trading sessions surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday break. Traders will continue to focus on underlying pork movement through the end of the year. This will take export and domestic market activity into account but will likely lead to additional underlying support in lean hog futures. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to $1 higher with most bids expected steady 50 cents higher. Slaughter Monday is expected at 488,000 head.

BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)

Cash cattle market gains last week will create expectations of firm underlying support during the first week of December. Cattle feeders are expected to elevate early week asking prices in order to take advantage of packers need to gain access to additional market-ready cattle over the next couple of weeks.

1)

Choice beef cutout values posted the most aggressive loss in over a month Friday afternoon. This is creating underlying concern that the aggressive market run higher may be coming to an end after cutout values have rallied nearly $40 per cwt during the month of November.

2)

Nearby feeder cattle futures have rallied $5 per cwt in the last week, and $14 per cwt in the last month. This upward movement is sparking renewed underlying support through the entire complex. At current levels, the potential to set short-term highs during the upcoming week is creating further market momentum.

2)

Firm market pressure in live cattle futures at the end of the week is creating market uncertainty as trader volume returns to a normal schedule, and end of month positioning may lead to further price pressure Monday morning.

3)

Strong gains in pork cutout values developed Friday, creating the potential for further underlying market support as trade volume returns to normal following the holiday week.

3)

Cash hog values have continued to show limited but noticeable weakness during the last full week of November. The concern that current market-ready hog supplies and the reduced holiday processing schedules will put even more pressure on cash hog prices is creating uncertainty in the entire complex.

4)

A move above $67.67 per cwt in spot February futures would break through resistance levels, likely sparking additional technical buyer support through the end of the year.

4)

Limited pork exports to China over the past two report cycles is adding to the concern that the recent growth and rebuilding of domestic pork production in China could be limiting long-term movement of pork to the country and entire Asian region. This would impact long-term market direction, given the current size of the U.S. hog herd.



#completecalfcare


Friday, November 27, 2020

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Fade Lower Into the Weekend

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a good week for the livestock contracts as steady gains were achieved early in the week and Friday's weaker close didn't deteriorate too much of the market's position. Hog prices were lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average of $56.73 on 5,444 head. March corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.90 points and NASDAQ is up 111.45 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $2.53, February live cattle up $2.60; January feeder cattle up $5.23, March feeder cattle up $4.63; December lean hogs up $1.75, February lean hogs up $1.90.

LIVE CATTLE:

Friday's cash cattle trade didn't come to fruition like feedlots had hoped, but given that most feedlots sit with current showlists, they have some room to roll cattle over and begin negotiations all over again next week without having to worry profusely about getting them sold at Monday's first whistle. Friday's trade didn't amount to much of anything as cash cattle buyers were happy to take a long weekend and traders did much of the same. December live cattle closed $0.75 lower at $110.62, February live cattle closed $0.92 lower at $113.25 and April live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $116.95. There was some light clean-up trade that took place Friday, but largely prices were steady with the rest of the week's business and only a small sampling traded at the week's end. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 1,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 88,000 head.

Beef Net sales of 15,500 mt were reported for 2020, a marketing-year low, but up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average. The three primarily increases were for China (2,000 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Japan (1,800 mt, including decreases of 2,700 mt), Kuwait (100 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that steer carcass weights are on the rise again. For the week ending Nov. 14, steers averaged 930 pounds (up 6 pounds from the previous week) and heifers averaged 846 pounds (steady with a week ago).

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.21 ($242.85) and select down $0.22 ($220.68) with a movement of 51 loads (29.50 loads of choice, 6.56 loads of select, 7.63 loads of trim and 7.38 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Feedlots know that they have a fine opportunity to move the market. If the board cooperates, pushing the market higher shouldn't be all that difficult so long as feedlots work together and commit to selling at their asking prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

As trader's interest for the cattle complex dwindled and as corn prices crept to $0.05 and $0.06 stronger in nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market sank lower into Friday's close. January feeders closed $0.35 lower at $139.82, March feeders closed $0.27 lower at $139.00 and April feeders closed $0.07 lower at $140.32. Iowa's weekly feeder cattle summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers weighing 300 to 599 pounds sold $5.00 higher to $6.00 lower and steers weighing 600 to 949 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 300 to 449 pounds sold $3.00 to $8.00 lower, heifers weighing 450 to 699 pounds sold $5.00 lower to $6.00 higher and heifers weighing 700 to 950 pounds sold $1.00 higher to $9.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 25: down $0.53, $136.90.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts closed lower heading into the weekend as traders interested and willing to invest into the complex were hard to come by. December lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $65.87, February lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $67.25 and April lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $70.37. It was interesting to see Friday's cutout value jump $1.61 following the Thanksgiving holiday. If the cutout value can find some ground to stand on and rally into next week, that could be the factor that helps rally the hog contracts out of their current steady and sideways trend. Pork cutouts totaled 214.07 loads with 181.14 loads of pork cuts and 32.93 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.61, $79.96. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 24: down $0.32, $67.38. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 380,000 head.

Pork net sales of 18,800 mt reported for 2020 were down 35% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The tree primarily increases were for Mexico (9,400 mt, including decreases of 600 mt), Japan (3,900 mt, including decreases of 200 mt) and China (2,500 mt, including decreases of 600 mt).

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Monday will likely be a busy day of catching up following the shortened Thanksgiving week. Packers may be interested in buying hogs, but advancing the cash market most likely won't suit them.


#completeherdhealth


Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Trade Mixed Following Thanksgiving

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into the afternoon, the livestock contracts are trading in a slow, methodical post-Thanksgiving fashion. With the markets closing early Friday afternoon and a lot of traders already checked out for the week for a long weekend, Friday's trade throughout the futures market and in the cash cattle market has developed in an unhurried cadence. March corn is up 5 cents per bushel, and January soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 26.25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 93.46 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market couldn't pick up where it left off Thursday and rally into Friday's trade. December live cattle are down $0.60 at $110.77, February live cattle are down $0.82 at $113.32 and April live cattle are down $0.45 at $117.02. Friday's unsupported trade really stems from the shortened holiday week. The cash cattle market is still mostly quiet with a few bids being renewed in Nebraska at $111 and a few cattle sold Friday morning in Texas for $112. Some feedlots in eastern Nebraska have upped asking prices to $175 as they know that packers need cattle and are in position to wait until the market pays up.

Beef net sales of 15,500 metric tons (mt) were reported for 2020 -- a marketing-year low -- up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China (2,000 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Japan (1,800 mt, including decreases of 2,700 mt) and Kuwait (100 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.21 ($243.85) and select up $0.04 ($220.94) with a movement of 27 loads (11.58 loads of choice, 2.97 loads of select, 4.80 loads of trim and 7.16 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

While live cattle contracts are trading lower, the feeder cattle market is hoping to round out the week with the bullish attitude that's been supported since Monday. January feeders are up $0.15 at $140.32, March feeders are up $0.02 at $139.30 and April feeders are up $0.07 at $140.47. The corn market is seeing some support that has elevated nearby contracts to $0.03 to $0.04 higher; thus far, the corn market's gain hasn't derailed the feeder cattle contracts.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market isn't being supported following the big Thanksgiving holiday. December lean hogs are down $0.15 at $66.02, February lean hogs are down $0.72 at $66.95 and April lean hogs are down $0.75 at $70. Following Thursday's stronger close, the market was hopeful to keep scaling higher and to eventually push out of the market's recent sideways trade. But based on Friday's trade thus far, the hog market isn't looking prime to finding midafternoon support before closing.

Pork net sales of 18,800 mt reported for 2020 were down 35% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three primary increases were for Mexico (9,400 mt, including decreases of 600 mt), Japan (3,900 mt, including decreases of 200 mt) and China (2,500 mt, including decreases of 600 mt).

The projected lean hog index for 11/24/2020 is down $0.32 at $67.38, and the actual index for 11/23/2020 is down $0.13 at $67.70. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.41 with a weighted average of $57.48, ranging from $57 to $58.50 on 3,840 head and a five-day rolling average of $57.94. Pork cutouts total 129.64 loads with 116.86 loads of pork cuts and 12.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.45, $78.80.


#completeherdhealth



Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Sluggish Market Movement Expected Following Thanksgiving Break

 General Comments:

Limited cash cattle trade developed as of late Wednesday with prices generally steady to $1 per cwt higher from week ago levels. It appears that packers will need to secure at least additional light trade before the end of the week in order to put themselves in a good position over the next couple of weeks as they secure current procurement schedules going into the month of December. But the activity level on Friday after Thanksgiving is always uncertain as to just how much interest either side will have to move back into the market. Cash cattle trade seen Wednesday was listed at $109 to $111 live (mostly $110 to $111) and $171 to $174 dressed (mostly $172 and higher). The combination of elevated boxed beef values through the week combined with active support in live cattle futures is expected to help support underlying cash trade moving into the weekend despite quiet markets. Futures trade is likely to remain sluggish as most traders are either still out for the holiday or remain on the sidelines as they have already adjusted positions until more active volume moves back into the complex. This should keep price moves uneventful. But the concern with these holiday schedule trading sessions is that volatile market swings can easily develop due to the limited activity.

Lean hog futures have rallied higher in the last week with spot February futures holding above $67 per cwt. This is a $4 per cwt rally from setting fall lows last week and is in a position to test November highs of $68.47 per cwt before the end of the month. Trade Friday is expected to remain subdued due to limited trade and a shortened trading session. Without any unforeseen market shifts, lean hog trade could wander within a narrow trading range during the entire day. Most traders are expected to wait until next week before adjusting to technical of fundamental market shifts, which could help support the recent market shifts through nearby and deferred contracts. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to $1 higher with most bids expected steady 50 cents lower. Slaughter Friday is expected at 478,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 379,000 head.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

Firming cash cattle markets were seen late Wednesday before the holiday break, with additional potential gains developing Friday as packers are expected to need at least some additional trade going into next week.

1)

Extremely limited holiday trade volume may hinder futures and cash market trade Friday with most traders absent from the market Friday and futures markets trading on a shortened schedule.

2)

Active gains in feeder cattle futures continue to spark positive momentum in the complex. January feeder cattle futures have rallied $6 per cwt over the last week, putting trade in a position to test short-term resistance levels of $140.72 per cwt before the end of the week.

2)

Light holiday volume always creates the risk of wide, unusual market swings which have little fundamental or technical merit but based solely on the lack of volume in the market and potential to manipulate market prices based on lack of activity.

3)

Firm gains have redeveloped in pork cutout values heading into the weekend. This is helping to drive additional buyer support into nearby lean hog contracts in late November.

3)

Pork packers continue to have aggressive expectations for Friday and Saturday processing schedules. These numbers are needed to keep the market current and make up for remaining dark on Thursday. But in order to sustain these elevated holiday schedules depends on active employee participation through the entire weekend. If employee numbers are reduced, plant speeds will significantly suffer for the week.

4)

A move above $67.67 per cwt in spot February futures would break through resistance levels, likely sparking additional technical buyer support through the end of the year.

4)

With nearby lean hog futures surging over $4 per cwt over the last week, the lean hog complex is ripe for a moderate price correction. The limited trade volume Friday could bring about pressure in nearby and deferred contracts with little underlying direction from fundamental market factors.




#completecalfcare


Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Rally with Thanksgiving Spirit

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a phenomenal week for both the cattle contracts and lean hog market. Both markets have seen follow-through trader support and are heading into Friday's trade fully higher. Potentially the most interesting market to watch is how feedlots navigate this week's cash cattle trade. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.50 with a weighted average of $57.39 on 4,890 head. March corn is down 5 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 177.25 points and NASDAQ is up 54.38 points.

Markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early on Friday.

LIVE CATTLE:

For the most part, feeders have stuck to their guns are really pushing for higher prices. There has been some cash cattle trade, but thus far it's been a light movement at steady to $1.00 higher than a week ago. The futures market has really supported cash sellers and higher boxed beef prices will keep packers encouraged to keep buying and processing. December live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $111.37, February live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $114.17 and April live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $117.42.

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.76 ($245.06) and select up $1.19 ($220.90) with a movement of 116 loads (75.79 loads of choice, 18.62 loads of select, 8.20 loads of trim and 13.61 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. This week has aligned perfectly for feedlots to add to the cash cattle market as boxed beef prices scale higher and the futures market shows ample support. Achieving $113 by the end of the week isn't out of the question if feedlots don't weaken late Wednesday evening and continue to rally together.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle contracts closed higher with the most trader support seen in nearby contracts. January feeders closed $1.57 higher at $140.17, March feeders closed $1.15 higher at $139.27 and April feeders closed $1.05 higher at $140.40. The market has not only been supported by traders this week, but also by the corn market's regression, which closed mostly $0.05 lower in nearby contracts. The rest of the week will be quiet, but next week's trade should see more action again. At Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to a week ago, steer and heifer calves traded mostly steady with some seven-weight steers trading as much as $5.00 higher. Demand was seen across the marketplace with a lighter run tested on all weights. Next week is expected to be a larger scale as producers try to market their calves in-between the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 24: up $0.18, $137.30.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market was able to keep the day's support through closing. December lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $66.17, February lean hogs closed $0.92 higher at $67.67 and April lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $70.75. Given that it's a holiday week and that the lean hog market lacks substantial support to move out of its sideways trend, the market enjoyed the light trader interest that it has received this past week.

Pork cutouts totaled 396.71 loads with 356.23 loads of pork cuts and 40.48 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.77, $78.35. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, steady with a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 23: down $0.13, $67.70.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. The week will most likely taper out on a softer note as it's a shortened week and packers don't have to worry about getting hogs bought as there's ample supply.



#completeherdhealth


Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Continue to Find Trader Support

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders continue to invest in all three livestock futures markets, sending them higher into Wednesday afternoon. Cash cattle trade is starting to develop at steady to $1.00 higher than last week, but at minimal levels and certainly not enough cattle have sold to say the week's trend is established. March corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 189.55 points and NASDAQ is up 28.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

For the most part, the live cattle market is trading mildly higher as traders eye the feeder cattle contracts more as we head into Wednesday afternoon trade. December live cattle are up $0.22 at $111.40, February live cattle are down $0.05 at $113.90 and April live cattle are up $0.05 at $117.20. Feeders are seeing more interest from packers as the day progresses and packers have upped their bids already Wednesday morning. There's been a light movement of cattle at steady to $1.00 higher than a week ago, but not enough trade has developed to call the week's trend established. If feedlots can stick together and push trade into Friday, more money could be found for this week's trade. Iowa sold some cattle for $110 and $172; Nebraska is seeing bids offered at $111 and $174; and Kansas has bids offered at $111.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.62 ($244.92) and select up $1.40 ($221.11) with a movement of 79 loads (50.97 loads of choice, 13.17 loads of select, 5.33 loads of trim and 9.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeders are thankful to see another day of lower corn prices and continued follow-through support from traders leading to higher prices. January feeders are up $1.22 at $139.75, March feeders are up $0.82 at $138.95 and April feeders are up $0.72 at $140.07. It's a touch-and-go week for feeder cattle sales as some barns canceled their sales for the holiday, some barns are seeing phenomenal demand still, and some are noticing fewer buyers as many take the later part of the week off to spend time with family. Regardless, if the week can continue to add positioning to the marketplace and sees continued support from the board, next week's market could be sitting in a fine position to sell feeders strong once again.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market again is seeing moderate support from traders who are willing to lightly invest in the hog complex without getting too bold and pushing the market out of its current sideways trend. December lean hogs are up $0.42 at $65.72, February lean hogs are up $0.57 at $67.32 and April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $70.55. Without there being strong demand from packers, and mixed signals coming from cutout values, the market will most likely continue to trade steady through the week.

The projected lean hog index for 11/23/2020 is down $0.13 at $67.70 and the actual index for 11/20/2020 is down $0.31 at $67.83. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.41 with a weighted average of $57.48, ranging from $57.00 to $58.50 on 3,840 head and a five-day rolling average of $57.94. Pork cutouts total 178.31 loads with 153.92 loads of pork cuts and 24.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.56, $78.14.


#completecalfcare


Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Holiday Week Bullishness Builds Across Cattle Complex

 General Comments:

Cash cattle trade remains quiet heading into Wednesday morning with most of cattle country unable to post reported cash cattle trade. A few sales were reported in Iowa Tuesday afternoon at $172 per cwt, but this is still not enough activity to establish a market trend. The continued surge in futures trade and boxed beef values during the week is helping to create expectations from feeders for higher cash cattle trade by the end of the week, even if they need to restart cash trade negotiations following the Thursday holiday break. As typically seen during a holiday week, the desire by both sides is to wrap up business before the break, but both sides are not beyond waiting until after Thanksgiving if they feel it will advance their respective position. The uncertainty in the market is based partly on unclear amounts of cattle packers "needs" to purchase going into early December. Although the currently active plant speeds will continue to stimulate active cattle movement, the amount of early December contracts being called and late year holiday schedules may limit the amount of short-term buying needed in order to fuel current plant speeds. Futures trade has continued to gain momentum through the week, although prices in live cattle and feeder cattle futures have fallen away from previous highs at closing bell. It is still too early to determine if the market is starting to cool, or traders are regrouping in order to position for further gains before the holiday break. Trade volume is expected to remain light once again. Outside market direction is likely to be a major factor in the overall movement and direction of cattle trade during the pre-holiday session. CME trading hours will remain normal Wednesday with markets closed Thursday and an early close on Friday.

Lean hog futures seem to be struggling to take the next step higher despite widespread gains seen through the rest of livestock trade and outside markets. The Dow Jones Index closed above 30,000 points for the first time in history Tuesday, and crude oil prices have continued to surge higher. The inability to spark widespread follow-through gains in lean hog futures is partially focused on the uncertainty of how much more support can be built in pork demand short term even if the economy rebounds. Concerns about growing production levels and falling pork prices in China has created increased uncertainty about future export sales levels to the country, which would be a significant hit to the entire port industry. The firmness in cattle markets is still a bullish factor for the lean hog market, as increased domestic demand will likely spark further product demand. But hog production is not slowing down significantly, limiting the expectation of tighter supplies in the coming months, no matter how active pork demand becomes. This could keep prices hovering in the current trading range in the near future, and possibly the end of the year. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to $1 higher with most bids expected steady 50 cents lower. Slaughter Wednesday is expected at 482,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 385,000 head.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

Underlying optimism in the economy continues to be a major factor in sparking renewed cattle market support. The Dow Jones Index broke through the 30,000-point ceiling Tuesday, creating new highs that is likely to spread to cattle market optimism.

1)

Despite the active gains in futures and beef values, cash cattle trade has been hesitant to shift higher during the week. The lack of firm gains over the next couple of days could limit underlying market optimism in the entire cattle complex.

2)

Boxed beef values continue to show no sign of letting up as aggressive buying support is seen in choice and select markets. The underlying support of higher beef values is signaling widespread optimism across the entire complex.

2)

Limited trade during the week could limit consistent trader interest, allowing for traders to quickly being distracted by other outside markets or news stories. This may lead to late week price shifts.

3)

Outside market support seen during the week continues to be a strong indicator for increased consumer buying. This is expected in pork markets over the coming weeks.

3)

Light trade volume is likely the rest of the week. Although the expectation that current market support may hold, there is potential for wide-ranging price shifts to develop due to the limited traders in the market.

4) Firm underlying gains on Tuesday in deferred lean hog futures points to a more steady market growth as traders continue to balance demand growth with current supply levels. Summer 2021 contracts are holding $15 per cwt premiums to current price levels, pointing to further market support over the coming months. 4)

Fundamental pressure in cash and pork cutout values during the week has created growing concerns that technical support may be limited following the Thanksgiving holiday. This could cause further market retractions over the coming days and weeks.




#completecalfcare


Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Building Into a Bullish Market

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

The surge in oil prices helped fuel positivity throughout the marketplace and ensured that cattle contracts closed higher. Feedlots are thankful to see the board's encouraged spirit as they patiently wait to move this week's cash cattle market higher. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.45 with a weighted average of $57.87 on 8,290 head. March corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 454.57 points and NASDAQ is up 156.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though cash cattle have yet to trade, feedlots are loving how this week is shaping up. With continued support from the board and with boxed beef prices still scaling higher, this week's cash cattle market could easily trade $2.00 to $4.00 stronger, as long as feedlots work together in marketing their showlists this week. Tuesday's boxed beef close was impressive. not only because both choice and select cuts closed higher again, but because packers continue to move ample amounts of product. Tuesday's boxed beef movement of 161 is encouraging that packers intend to keep chain speed elevated and consequently will need more cattle in the days and weeks to come. December live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $111.17, February live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $113.95 and April live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $117.15. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.70 ($244.30) and select up $2.23 ($219.71) with a movement of 161 loads (97.10 loads of choice, 20.89 loads of select, 11.71 loads of trim and 31.54 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. So long as feedlots work together and collectively push for higher prices, the market could easily see an advancement of $2.00 to $4.00 stronger given the other supporting factors within the market. Pinpointing when that trade will develop is slightly difficult, but bids could develop as early as Wednesday morning after the online auction.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market scaled lower into Tuesday's close, which continued to allow the feeder cattle market to trade higher. January feeders closed $0.77 higher at $138.60, March feeders closed $0.85 higher at $138.12 and April feeders closed $0.37 higher at $139.35. Feeder cattle prices are hit and miss throughout the countryside as sales that are able to attract buyers are seeing good prices, but some markets are noticing that the holiday shortened week is leaving a few more of their seats empty this week.

At Tri-State Livestock Auction in McCook, Nebraska, compared to a week ago, steers sold $1.00 to $7.00 stronger and heifers traded $4.00 to $7.00 lower. With yearlings becoming harder and harder to come by, they continue to be met with excellent demand, especially if there's a full load of them available. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 23: up $0.18, $137.12.

LEAN HOGS:

Support grew stronger in the lean hog market throughout the afternoon and left the market to close mostly higher. December lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $65.30, February lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $66.75 and April lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $70.22. The market's development came from the support seen throughout the rest of the futures market as, fundamentally, the market wasn't aided by a stronger cash trade nor a higher cutout value. Pork cutouts totaled 413.82 loads with 371.88 loads of pork cuts and 42.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.19, $77.58. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 497,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 20:

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Slightly lower. As the market moves closer to Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday, packer ambition to support the cash market will most likely be minimal.


#completecalfcare


Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Keep Snappy Pace

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live and feeder cattle futures continue to find support while lean hog futures fight some pressure in nearby contracts. The cash cattle market is still quiet with trade not expected to develop until sometime Wednesday, most likely after the online auction. March corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 482.28 points and NASDAQ is up 121.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are picking up right where Monday left off and are motivated to rally all through Tuesday's trade. As the day continues to find support from willing traders, the February live cattle contract has jumped above last week's high. December live cattle are up $1.35 at $111.35, February live cattle are up $1.50 at $114.40 and April live cattle are up $1.07 at $117.62. With boxed beef prices keeping their upward progression and the futures market fully supported, cash cattle could have an opportunity to trade $1.00 to $2.00 stronger. Thus far the week's cash cattle trade remains nonexistent with traders lightly inquiring on cattle, but bids have yet to hit the table. Asking prices of $111 to $112 have been set in parts of the Southern Plains, but the North has yet to determine their prices this week.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.69 ($244.29) and select up $2.01 ($219.49) with a movement of 65 loads (36.24 loads of choice, 14.62 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.98 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As corn continues to trade mostly $0.02 lower in nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market scales higher as it feels fully supported. January feeders are up $1.12 at $138.95, March feeders are up $1.17 at $138.45 and April feeders are up $0.67 at $139.65. With cash cattle itching to trade higher and the futures market fully supporting both cattle markets, feeder cattle are selling well early this week despite last week's softness seen Thursday and Friday.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market has faded to the background as the day is inconclusive on whether the market should trade fully higher or lower. Nearby contracts are facing some minor resistance but as time moves closer and closer to the noon hour, the support throughout the futures market is lessening that burden and could push the market fully higher. Still the market neglects to find substantial support from cutout values which could help fundamentally support the contracts. December lean hogs are down $0.15 at $64.80, February lean hogs are down $0.57 at $66.55 and April lean hogs are up $0.15 at $70.35.

Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.39 with a weighted average of $57.93, ranging from $50.00 to $58.50 on 3,662 head and a 5-day rolling average of $58.06. Pork cutouts total 283.42 loads with 252.76 loads of pork cuts and 30.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.04, $77.81.


#completeherdhealth


Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Week Optimism Met By Outside Market Pressure

 General Comments:

Cash cattle activity remains undeveloped and quiet early Tuesday morning. This is no surprise, although with the holiday-shortened trading week, it is likely that more packer interest will be shown Tuesday. Feeders are becoming much more aggressive in pricing cattle this week following the combination of rising beef values as well as strong futures gains Monday. But this may be offset by potential light trade needed to be seen from packers through the week. Although bids were scattered and limited Monday, the fact that initial bids remained steady with last week's price levels initially points to the possibility of market firmness through the next few days. Both sides are expected to try to wrap cash cattle trade up by the end of day Wednesday in order not to resume duties on Friday after the holiday. Feeder cattle futures took the reins Monday, sparking gains near $3 per cwt in most nearby contracts with the focus on underlying outside market support. This is expected to create moderate spillover trade early Tuesday despite the concern that outside market pressure may start developing the rest of the week. With December live cattle futures moving back to $110 per cwt thanks to triple-digit gains Monday, the focus on further underlying buyer support in late November is drawing renewed commercial buyer interest back into the complex. Live cattle futures remain well entrenched within a sideways trading range, limiting expected technical market shifts, but the strength in beef market fundamentals continues to add support to the market. Continued focus on COVID-19 vaccine tests and the possibility for market-ready product at the end of the year is creating some renewed hope that beef demand will improve through the first half of 2021.

Sharp gains continue in lean hog futures Monday, quickly breaking through initial resistance levels seen through the middle of November as traders once again distance price levels away from long-term support levels. The recent market support is likely to be spurred on by tighter pork supplies following Monday's Cold Storage report. Pork supplies in October fell 4% from the previous month, and down a whopping 27% from year-ago levels. This continues to focus on the aggressive movement of pork through the system even though hog supplies remain aggressive. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to $1 higher with most bids expected steady 50 cents lower. Slaughter Tuesday is expected at 491,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 385,000 head.

BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)Sharp gains in nearby feeder cattle futures has sparked renewed underlying support through the entire cattle complex. With January feeder cattle leading the entire cattle market higher with gains of $3.22 per cwt Monday, traders look to expand the recent market support.1)

Cash cattle markets have lagged the support in futures trade and boxed beef values through the month of November. With boxed beef values gaining over $33 per cwt in the last month, cash values have struggled to move $5 per cwt higher within this period. This may continue to limit upward support in cash values through the end of the year.

2)

Boxed beef values continue to show no sign of letting up as aggressive buying support is seen in choice and select markets. The triple-digit gains Monday added to the building market momentum as choice boxed beef values have rallied $33 per cwt through the month of November.

2)

Limited trade during the week could limit consistent trader interest, allowing for traders to quickly become spooked by outside markets, leading to potentially wide price swings lower.

3)

Lean hog futures have rallied over $4 per cwt in spot February contracts over the last three trading sessions. The underlying support is expected to bring additional buyer interest to the complex over the next couple of days.

3)

Active pressure in many outside market commodities during overnight trade is creating uncertainty about additional upward futures moves early Tuesday morning. Typically, holiday weeks like this have a tendency to lead to wide price swings due to limited volume in the market. This can many times disrupt trade patterns for weeks to come.

4)

Pork in cold storage has fallen 27% from year-ago levels with pork bellies falling 57% with in the same period. The aggressive movement of pork through the end of 2020 is helping to spark renewed focus on steady to stronger pork demand as the industry continues to keep up with current commitments.

4)

Cash hog values have struggled to remain stable despite the active pork movement seen in the cold storage report and need for packers to aggressively keep procurement levels at or near capacity levels. This may limit upward movement in cash prices through the end of the year.



#completeherdhealth


Monday, November 23, 2020

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Cling to Support

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a prosperous Monday for livestock contracts as support was willing to move all three markets higher and the day closed substantially stronger in the feeder cattle market. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.50 with a weighted average of $58.33 on 8,012 head. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 361.86 points and NASDAQ is up 38.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Monday's live cattle market was generous considering how bearish the market closed last week. December live cattle closed $1.90 higher at $110.00, February live cattle closed $2.25 higher at $112.90 and April live cattle closed $2.10 higher at $116.55. With it being a holiday week, packers will try to get cattle bought cheaper because of the shortened week. But feedlots are expected to price cattle at least steady with last week's trade, if not slightly higher. As feedlots watch boxed beef prices scale stronger, they realize that packers have more to give. Monday's cash cattle trade was at a standstill as packers showed slight interest but not enough to develop anything into actual business. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.25 ($241.60) and select up $2.50 ($217.48) with a movement of 122 loads (71.21 loads of choice, 25.19 loads of select, 9.90 loads of trim and 15.56 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. With packers having sold a lot of out-front orders, they need to keep processing speeds elevated in order to meet all their commitments. With that being the case, feedlots have an opportunity to move the market higher, especially if the board cooperates.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Monday's feeder cattle market soaked up every ounce of support that the market offered and couldn't have cared less that the corn market kept its $0.03 to $0.05 gain in nearby contracts through closing. The feeder cattle market moved the livestock contracts higher as it was the market that made the boldest moves throughout the day. January feeders closed $3.22 higher at $137.82, March feeders closed $2.90 higher at $137.27 and April feeders closed $2.80 higher at $138.97. A Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to a week ago, steer calves and yearling steers under 750 pounds sold steady, steers weighing over 750 pounds traded steady to $5.00 higher. Heifer calves traded steady to $2.00 higher and yearling heifers sold steady. Demand was considered moderate to somewhat strong and supply was heavy, but thankfully the day's stronger futures market helped boost the market's moral. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 20: up $0.19, $136.94.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the lean hog market has been dead set on determining a nearby low and has traded sideways over the last month, Monday's lean hog market got to soak up some of the support floating through the marketplace. December lean hogs closed $0.82 higher at $64.95, February lean hogs closed $1.77 higher at $67.12 and April lean hogs closed $1.97 higher at $70.20. Unfortunately, until the market sees some significant consumer demand, the market may be pressured to continue to trade mostly steady. Pork cutouts totaled 443.35 loads with 407.17 loads of pork cuts and 36.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.40, $77.77. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 497,000 head - 20,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 19: down $0.63, $68.14.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Given that it's a holiday-shortened week, the cash hog market will most likely be uneventful as packers plan their schedules for an unusual week.


#completecalfcare


Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Jump at Opportunity to Trade Higher

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing an easy $1.00 to $3.00 rally across all three markets Monday. The feeder cattle market is closely watching how much stronger the corn market grows as $0.02 to $0.05 gains are seen entering the afternoon. Monday morning saw some light cash cattle trade in Nebraska at steady prices with a week ago. December corn is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 182.14 points and NASDAQ is down 1.11 points.

LIVE CATTLE

The live cattle complex is liking Monday's attitude, which is regaining what was lost last week and is being encouraged by positive announcements about more COVID-19 vaccines and a bullish Cattle on Feed Report Friday. December live cattle are up $2.15 at $110.22, February live cattle are up $2.50 at $113.15 and April live cattle are up $2.30 at $116.75. There was some light cash cattle trade Monday morning in Nebraska at fully steady prices, but otherwise the countryside has only seen light inquiry from packers. Given that this week is shortened for the Thanksgiving holiday, cash cattle trade is expected to develop earlier in the week. Showlists are larger this week in all the 5-state feeding region.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 106,137 head. Of that 79,128 head are for delivery in the next two weeks while the remaining 27,009 head are for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef pries are mixed: choice up $4.09 ($242.44) and select down $0.45 ($214.53) with a movement of 54 loads (24.79 loads of choice, 11.91 loads of select, 5.35 loads of trim and 12.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle prices are regaining what was lost late last week as the market rallies $2.50 to $3.00. January feeders are up $3.10 at $137.00, March feeders are up $2.90 at $137.27 and April feeders are up $2.77 at $138.95. So long as the corn market rally doesn't continue to soar into Monday afternoon, the feeder cattle market should be able to capitalize on gains all throughout the day.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures haven't seen much action over the last month as the market is developing a low, but Monday's excitement has even trickled over into the hog market and is helping rally nearby contracts $1.00 to $2.00 higher. December lean hogs are up $1.37 at $65.50, February lean hogs are up $2.22 at $67.57 and April lean hogs are up $2.27 at $70.47. What could potentially help the hog market is long-term strength in the pork cutout value, as the market has endured fluctuations in hog prices in the latter part of 2020.

The projected lean hog index for 11/20/2020 is down $0.31 at $67.83 and the actual index for 11/19/2020 is down $0.63 at $68.14. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.02 with weighted average of $57.81, ranging from $50.00 to $59.00 on 4,760 head and a 5-day rolling average of $58.34. Pork cutouts total 280.08 loads with 261.03 loads of pork cuts and 19.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.78, $78.95.


#completecalfcare