Livestock Lowdown: 2026

Friday, July 10, 2026

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Rounds Out Week Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended Friday mostly lower as traders simply didn't find the support they needed this week. The cash cattle market saw a few more sales develop throughout the day, but largely the week's trade was done on Thursday. December corn is up 9 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 173.20 points and NASDAQ is up 78.11 points.

From Friday-to-Friday the livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle down $4.02, October live cattle down $3.75; August feeder cattle down $6.02, September feeder cattle down $7.45; July lean hogs up $0.93, August lean hogs up $0.25; July corn up $0.13, September corn up $0.17.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another disappointing day for the live cattle complex as the market continued its downward break. The market simply doesn't have enough support to justify trading the complex in any other direction at this point in time. August live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $235.20, October live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $230.55 and December live cattle closed $1.27 lower at $230.27. It is worth noting that today's close is the fourth consecutive close below the market's 100-day moving average in the spot August contract. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $248, which is $7.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average; Northern dressed cattle traded at $393, which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 99,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 3,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be zero head of cattle. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 529,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 42,000 head less than a year ago.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as the decrease in steer and heifer slaughter has more than offset the increase in cow slaughter. Quarterly fed steer price projections for 2026 were mostly supportive as steer prices in the third quarter are now anticipated to average $255 (up $3.00 from last month's report), steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $255 (unchanged from last month), steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $250 (unchanged from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $255. Beef imports for 2026 decreased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 also decreased by 10 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.87 ($382.68) and select up $4.84 ($368.33) with a movement of 90 loads (64.22 loads of choice, 9.92 loads of select, 5.49 loads of trim and 10.73 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers are slowly building supply and getting the market pushed lower, it's likely they'll be able to keep with that trend in the upcoming weeks.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another lower day for the feeder cattle complex as the market continues to closely mirror the direction of the live cattle complex; it didn't help that buyer demand softened late in the week too. August feeders closed $1.55 lower at $354.60, September feeders closed $1.97 lower at $351.02 and October feeders closed $1.97 lower at $347.35. The Weekly Oklahoma Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 lower and feeder heifers sold unevenly steady. Steer calves sold $7.00 to $12.00 lower, but heifer calves over 500 pounds traded $10.00 to $13.00 lower and those under 500 pounds sold steady. The auction report did note that with recent rains in the area there weren't as many buyers in the barns this week as they're busy putting up hay. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 7/9/2026: down $4.03, $370.42.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex kept with its recent trend through Friday's close as the spot and nearby contracts managed to close higher, but by and large the rest of the complex ended the day softer. July lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $94.77, August lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $99.00 and October lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $85.07. The market's resistance at $100 in the spot August contract remains a stiff barrier traders simply aren't willing to face at this time. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.25 with a weighted average price of $98.30 on 3,664 head. Pork cutouts totaled 309.89 loads with 284.70 loads of pork cuts and 25.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.53, $101.34. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 452,000 head -- can't be compared to last week but 28,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 23,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/8/2026: up $0.37, $92.35.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the pork and hog markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 40 million pounds as slaughter speeds in the second half of the year are anticipated. Quarterly price projections for 2026 were decreased as hogs in the third quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $69 (down $2.00 from last month's report), hogs in the fourth quarter are anticipated to average $58 (down $4.00 from last month), hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month) and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by 25 million pounds and pork exports for 2026 were decreased by 15 million pounds.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were extremely active in this week's cash hog market and how next week's trade pans out will likely be determined on whether or not they secured enough inventory this week

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed heading into Friday's noon hour as traders simply don't have enough immediate support to keep the contracts from trailing lower. No new cash cattle trade has developed following Thursday's business. December corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 84.71 points and NASDAQ is up 52.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Yes, midday boxed beef prices may be trading higher -- but that's not enough support to offset the $7.00 to $10.00 decline seen in this week's fed cash cattle market to help ease trader concerns. August live cattle are down $0.55 at $234.70, October live cattle are down $1.30 at $230.30 and December live cattle are down $1.42 at $230.12. No new cash cattle trade has developed following Thursday's trade. Southern live deals were marked at $248, $7 lower than last week's weighted averages, and Northern dressed deals were marked at mostly $393, $10 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. No bids are on the table currently and it's likely the bulk of this week's trade is done.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.09 ($383.90) and select up $6.16 ($369.65) with a movement of 61 loads (46.31 loads of choice, 5.46 loads of select, 2.58 loads of trim and 6.67 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without seeing support from the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower. August feeders are down $2.65 at $353.50, September feeders are down $2.70 at $350.30 and October feeders are down $2.25 at $347.07. It's most likely at this point the market will continue with its downward trend through Friday's close.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed again as the market wants to move higher but needs buy-in from traders to conquer the market's resistance at $100 in the spot August contract before that will happen. A couple of the nearby contracts are trading higher, but by and large the vast majority of the deferred contracts are trading lower. July lean hogs are up $0.40 at $94.75, August lean hogs are up $0.62 at $98.77 and October lean hogs are down $0.75 at $84.90. The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.11 with a weighted average price of $96.84, ranging from $94.00 to $99.00 on 1,871 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.92. Pork cutouts total 206.84 loads with 190.35 loads of pork cuts and 16.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.02, $101.83.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash May Trigger Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Early cattle trade held some optimism that cash trade would not be as low as some had feared. However, that was not the case as Southern live cattle traded $7.00 lower and Northern dressed traded $10.00 lower. The downtrend in cattle remains intact with further liquidation possible. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $0.39 and select up $0.40. Feedlots face a decision whether they sell the cattle that they intended to sell this week or hold for another week and risk possible lower prices next week. Packers may be able to surround themselves with more cattle this week to increase their leverage next week.

Pork cutout values have been trending higher and have provided support to the market. Hogs may finally have found the support that had been anticipated for quite some time. Hog slaughter has been strong, indicating good demand. Cash has been slowly improving, but packers have not had to be very aggressive to purchase what they require to maintain the slaughter pace. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.74 on Thursday. Pork cutout values increased $0.65. Hog futures have developed an uptrend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have moved into an oversold status, which could trigger some short-covering into the weekend.	1)	Packers are likely to increase cattle purchases at lower prices, putting them in a better position for next week.
2)	Selling this week may have been overdone and may subside today. The recent weakness may be viewed as a buying opportunity.	2)	Continued lower cash cattle trade today may put further pressure on futures as traders continue to liquidate long positions.
3)	Hog futures have developed an uptrend that may be maintained as pork cutouts trend higher.	3)	Packers are expected to be less aggressive today as they have most of their needs purchased for the week.
4)	Hog weights are decreasing partly due to summer weather and hogs being pulled forward due to the strong slaughter pace.	4)	There is little reason for traders to turn bullish on the hog market anytime soon. There are sufficient hogs available for demand, leaving the cash market choppy.

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Early Cash Cattle Trade is Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended Thursday mixed as the cattle contracts closed lower but the lean hog contracts found support. There was some light cash cattle trade noted at $248 in the South (down $7.00 from last week's weighted average) and some Northern dressed cattle traded at $393 (which is down $10.00 from last week's weighted average). December corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 139.02 points and NASDAQ is up 336.24 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,000 mt for 2026 were primarily for Japan (4,200 mt), South Korea (3,200 mt) and Taiwan (1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 17,700 mt for 2026 were down 53% from the previous week and 32% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,500 mt), Japan (4,600 mt) and Canada (1,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex again ended the day lower as traders simply weren't shown enough reason or support to do anything else with the market. Because with boxed beef prices and cash prices both traded in an unsupportive manner, the market's fundamental support was again minimal. August live cattle closed $2.37 lower at $235.25, October live cattle closed $1.95 lower at $231.60 and December live cattle closed $2.10 lower at $231.55. There was some light cash cattle trade noted at $248 in the South (down $7.00 from last week's weighted average) and some Northern dressed cattle traded at $393 (which is down $10.00 from last week's weighted average). Both regions have only seen a handful of cattle trade thus far this week, so there's a chance still the week's trend compared to last week could change.

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.39 ($380.81) and select up $0.40 ($363.49) with a movement of 86 loads (67.84 loads of choice, 6.30 loads of select, 5.93 loads of trim and 5.46 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that some cattle have already traded at lower money, the week's trend will likely remain lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also fell subject to pressure Thursday and ended the day sharply lower with prices closing mostly $5.00 lower. August feeders closed $5.90 lower at $356.15, September feeders closed $5.65 lower at $353.00 and October feeders closed $5.30 lower at $349.32. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers weighing 650 to 950 pounds sold $10.00 to $25.00 higher. Spayed heifers sold at a $5.00 to $10.00 premium. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 97%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 7/8/2026: up $3.70, $374,45.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to end the day mostly higher, although a couple of the nearby contracts still closed weaker. It's been incredibly supportive to not only see packers more aggressive in the cash market but to also see greater consumer demand this week. July lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $94.32, August lean hogs closed $1.50 lower at $98.15 and October lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $85.65. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.74 with a weighted average price of $97.05 on 10,857 head. Pork cutouts totaled 193.89 loads with 163.15 loads of pork cuts and 30.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.65, $98.81. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 31,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/7/2026: up $0.32, $91.98.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have been extremely aggressive in this week's cash market and won't likely be as aggressive on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Light Cash Cattle Trade at $248 is Noted in Texas

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Some light cash cattle trade has developed in the South on Thursday, but not enough cattle have traded to say any sort of a trend has been established for the week. Packer interest will likely continue to improve throughout the day. December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 198.85 points and NASDAQ is up 231.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Unfortunately, the same song and dance is seen today in the live cattle complex as the contracts continue to scale lower. August live cattle are down $1.72 at $235.92, October live cattle are down $1.27 at $232.27 and December live cattle are down $1.22 at $232.42. Some light cash cattle trade has begun to develop as a handful of cattle have traded at $248 in Texas; but not enough have sold to say any sort of trend has been solidified just yet. Bids of $248 are also noted in Kansas and bids of $393 have surfaced in Nebraska.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.38 ($379.82) and select up $1.10 ($364.19) with a movement of 31 loads (24.84 loads of choice, 3.26 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 3.02 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Sadly, the higher momentum the feeder cattle contracts had through Wednesday's close ran dry as Thursday the market is back to following the live cattle contracts lower. August feeders are down $2.75 at $359.37, September feeders are down $2.95 at $355.70 and October feeders are down $2.80 at $351.77. Currently the spot August contract is trading just below its 100-day moving average as weakness continues to spread.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts continue to trade mixed with the deferred contracts more confident in the market's outlook than the nearby contracts. July lean hogs are down $0.25 at $94.25, August lean hogs are down $1.25 at $98.40 and October lean hogs are up $0.40 at $85.92. Luckily with midday pork cutout values up slightly, the market should be able to keep its stronger position in the deferred contracts. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/8/2026 is up $0.37 at $92.35 and the actual index for 7/7/2026 is up $0.32 at $91.98. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.06 with a weighted average price of $96.95, ranging from $92.00 to $99.00 on 8,935 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.94. Pork cutouts total 106.48 loads with 91.93 loads of pork cuts and 14.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.74, $98.90.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Show Further Short-Covering

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The August live cattle contract initially fell to support before strong buying surfaced, resulting in a strong bounce. Feeder cattle did not bounce from support, but followed the pattern of live cattle closing with triple-digit gains in the August and September contracts. This may set the stage for the beginning of a retracement of the losses of the past two weeks. However, the continued weakness of boxed beef prices does not bode well for near-term demand. Packers are expected to remain tight-fisted and have shown a few bids as much as $10.00 lower. I do not believe feedlots will be willing to sell cattle at that much of a loss, but the consensus is that cash will be lower. Boxed beef prices on Wednesday showed choice down $4.57 and select down $2.80. Although cattle closed significantly off their lows on Wednesday, futures remain in a downtrend.

Hogs made a substantial turn on Wednesday with traders buying aggressively. Triple-digit gains were seen across the board, with the October contract showing the most strength, gaining $3.87 and price moving back to the highest level since June 3. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report was higher as expected, with a gain of $1.37. Packers are not expected to be aggressive the rest of the week, as they have purchased a significant volume of hogs so far. Pork cutout values increased $0.25. The anticipated price retracement may continue, with further upside potential possible. The weekly average hog weight declined to 285.2 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The rebound in cattle futures on Wednesday following initial weakness may indicate liquidation has run its course, and buyers will turn more aggressive.	1)	Even though cattle futures rebounded Wednesday, the downtrend remains intact.
2)	Cattle supplies remain low, leaving limited downside price potential for cattle and beef prices.	2)	The continued weakness in boxed beef will result in packers maintaining lower bids for cattle.
3)	The strong gain in hog futures may indicate that a price retracement is underway and that further gains will be seen.	3)	Weekly hog weights remain 2.5 pounds higher than a year ago. This leaves plentiful pork supplies.
4)	Weekly hog weights declined by 1.7 pounds to an average of 285.2 pounds.	4)	The upside price potential may be limited after short-covering runs its course. Cash and cutouts need to see consistent support.

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Continue to Take Hold of Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again ended the day mixed as the live cattle contracts remained on edge and hesitant, but both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts closed stronger thanks to additional fundamental support. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is down 8 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 576.76 points and NASDAQ is up 51.96 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex again ended the day lower as traders simply refuse to support the market when they don't know what's going to happen yet in this week's fed cash cattle trade. Some early asking prices have been noted in eastern Nebraska at $400, but otherwise the market sits quietly. August live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $237.62, October live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $233.55 and December live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $233.65.

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.57 ($381.20) and select down $2.80 ($363.09) with a movement of 119 loads (81.08 loads of choice, 15.51 loads of select, 12.10 loads of trim and 10.27 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With the board's lower trend it's likely fed cash cattle prices will be cheaper this week too as last week the market traded lower and packers were able to gain some inventory.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may have ended the day lower, but that didn't stop the feeder cattle contracts from celebrating the additional support they've recently seen in the countryside, which helped drive the contracts higher through Wednesday's end. August feeders closed $1.40 higher at $362.05, September feeders closed $1.25 higher at $358.65 and October feeders closed $0.85 higher at $354.62. Comparing sale reports is difficult as last week there wasn't a great test of the market given it was a holiday shortened weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 7/7/2026: down $2.44, $370.75.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to maintain its rally through Wednesday's end as traders continue to be encouraged by the support stemming from consumer demand and from packer interest in the cash market. July lean hogs closed $1.05 higher at $94.50, August lean hogs closed $2.72 higher at $99.65 and October lean hogs closed $3.87 higher at $85.52. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.37 with a weighted average price of $97.79 on 6,969 head. Pork cutouts totaled 294.37 loads with 248.86 loads of pork cuts and 45.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.25, $98.16. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/6/2026: up $0.11, $91.66.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given how active packers have been already this week in the cash market likely means they won't need to be as aggressive later in the week as they've already secured their needs.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Dip Lower, While Hogs Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed again as the cattle contracts continue to err on the side of caution while the lean hogs contracts are trading higher. Asking prices have been noted at $400 in eastern Nebraska. December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 711.85 points and NASDAQ is down 118.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are continuing to scale lower as, simply put, there isn't enough immediate support in the market to keep the contracts from trading lower. With boxed beef prices lower and the assumption the cash market could be pushed lower again this week too, traders are erring on the side of extra caution while the market continues to look for support. August live cattle are down $1.65 at $236.77, October live cattle are down $1.37 at $232.65 and December live cattle are down $1.50 at $232.50. Asking prices are noted at $400 in eastern Nebraska, but otherwise the cash market is sitting idle.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $3.56 ($382.21) and select down $2.99 ($362.90) with a movement of 75 loads (48.91 loads of choice, 9.61 loads of select, 9.86 loads of trim and 7.09 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although feeder cattle demand has been relatively strong this week, traders aren't going to move the feeder cattle contracts in the opposite direction of the live cattle contracts. August feeders are down $1.62 at $359.10, September feeders are down $1.27 at $356.12 and October feeders are down $1.90 at $351.87. The spot August contract continues to hover around the market's 100-day and 40-day moving averages -- hoping some form of stronger support will arise quickly and keep the market from sinking sharply below those thresholds.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are seeing some additional support Wednesday. We are currently seeing a rally anywhere between $1.00 to $2.00 higher heading into Wednesday's noon hour. It's helpful that packers have been more aggressive this week in the cash market and that this morning pork cutout values are higher. Both factors help encourage traders to continue to push the contracts higher. July lean hogs are up $0.82 at $94.27, August lean hogs are up $1.90 at $98.82 and October lean hogs are up $2.67 at $84.35.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/7/2026 is up $0.32 at $91.98 and the actual index for 7/6/2026 is up $0.11 at $91.66. Hog prices average $96.89 on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, ranging from $86.00 to $96.89 on 2,480 head and a five-day rolling average of $96.64. Pork cutouts total 164.87 loads with 136.08 loads of pork cuts and 28.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.07, $98.98.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Demand Uncertainty May Foster Further Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The August, October and December contracts made new lows as liquidation continued. Feeder cattle showed a similar pattern but did not make new lows. Nevertheless, the weakness continued as demand seems to be struggling. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice down $0.71 and select up $0.02. Hot weather generally slows beef consumption, and this year seems to be no exception. There has been no interest in cash trading activity, with packers expected to hold for lower prices. The New World screwworm seems to be a fact of life in the U.S., with 32 recorded cases so far and only 18 cases remain active. This has not been responsible for the recent weakness seen in the market.

Hog futures have maintained the recent pattern of choppiness with contracts higher one day and lower the next. No price change was recorded in the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, but a weighted-average price of $96.42 was posted. Nearby futures maintain an uptrend while later contracts remain entrenched in a sideways pattern. Pork cutout values were up $1.66, fueled by an $8.65 gain in bellies. Packers have not purchased a large volume of hogs so far, which increases the potential for them to be aggressive in the cash market today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have corrected sufficiently to increase the interest of bullish traders to step back into the market and buy the break.	1)	Cattle futures have declined, but are not oversold. There may be further liquidation.
2)	Hot weather will reduce weight gain and decrease the willingness to move cattle to slaughtering facilities.	2)	Cash is expected to be lower as packer margins remain negative, boxed beef is weaker and cattle futures have declined.
3)	Hog futures are holding support, and further strength in cutouts may increase the interest of traders to establish long-term bullish positions.	3)	Hog futures have been unable to recover from the large decline that has taken place since March. Traders have not seen long-term supportive fundamentals.
4)	Pork cutouts are slowly increasing, indicating demand is holding and slowly improving.	4)	Hog slaughter remains higher than a year ago, but that has not reduced the supply of market-ready hogs. Packers do not need to be aggressive in the cash market.

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Continue to Skate Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts ended the day lower as little fundamental support arose throughout the day. The fed cash cattle market also sat idle without any bids or asking prices having developed yet. December corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 130.76 points and the NASDAQ is down 302.47 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Without any wild developments in the market's fundamentals, traders felt as though their safest option was to let the contracts drift lower through the day's end. August live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $238.42, October live cattle closed $0.62 lower at $234.02 and December live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $234.00. No trade has developed yet in the cash cattle market and both bids and asking prices remain elusive, too.

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head -- steady with a week ago but 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.71 ($385.77) and select up $0.02 ($365.89) with a movement of 128 loads (81.47 loads of choice, 27.48 loads of select, 10.45 loads of trim and 8.33 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/Lower. Given that packers were able to push the market lower last week and given the fact that they secured some much-needed inventory last week, it's likely that this week's market will trade steady at best.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts followed the live cattle market's direction and also ended the day lower. August feeders closed $0.15 higher at $360.65, September feeders closed $0.47 lower at $357.40 and October feeders closed $1.02 lower at $353.77. The market is currently hovering above its 100-day and 40-day moving averages in the spot August contract. This will remain an important threshold to continue to monitor, because if the contracts dip below that threshold, it could be difficult to pull back above that level. At the Kingsville Livestock Auction in Kingsville, Missouri, compared to last week, steers sold steady to firm, but heifers sold steady to $10.00 higher, with the biggest gains seen on those weighing 550 to 625 pounds. Slaughter cows traded steady to $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 74%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/3/2026: down $1.52, $371.11.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also ended the day lower as traders weren't willing to put their necks out on the line without better support from the market's fundamentals. July lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $93.45, August lean hogs closed $1.60 lower at $96.92 and October lean hogs closed $0.92 lower at $81.65. Until fundamental support improves, it's unlikely the contracts will trade much higher as traders are cautious and aware of the market's resistance at the $100 mark in the spot August contract. Hog prices averaged $96.42 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, ranging from $94.75 to $98.00 on 7,482 head. Pork cutouts totaled 341.18 loads with 304.83 loads of pork cuts and 36.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.66, $97.91. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 13,000 head more than a week ago and 12,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/2/2026: down $0.12, $91.55.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that packers were quite active in Tuesday's cash market, they may not have to be as aggressive on Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lower Tones Stick With the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another day of lower prices for the livestock complex as the market needs to see greater fundamental support before it will likely trade higher again. Still no trade has surfaced in the cash cattle market. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 161.53 points and the NASDAQ is down 180.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although midday boxed beef prices are higher, the live cattle contracts are still trading lower as traders need more than a little fundamental support to help turn this market around. But with the cash cattle market anticipated to trade steady at best, a steady to somewhat lower trend will likely continue to be the theme of this week's trade for the live cattle contracts. August live cattle are down $1.15 at $237.95, October live cattle are down $1.07 at $233.57 and December live cattle are down $0.90 at $233.57. No action has developed yet in the cash cattle market.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.30 ($387.78) and select up $4.49 ($370.36) with a movement of 69 loads (41.11 loads of choice, 13.21 loads of select, 10.16 loads of trim and 4.65 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And although feeder cattle demand was strong Monday afternoon in the countryside, traders simply aren't willing to push the feeder cattle contracts higher while the live cattle contracts are scaling lower. August feeders are up $0.27 at $360.77, September feeders are down $0.45 at $357.42 and October feeders are down $1.17 at $353.62. Regardless of what happens in the countryside this afternoon, it's likely that the contracts will continue to follow the direction of the live cattle market.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are also trading lower this morning as the market is fearing the resistance at the market's $100 market in the spot August contract. And while it would be easy and logical to point to the slight uptick in pork demand, traders need more reassurance than that if they're going to challenge a threshold that the market hasn't successfully traded over in over a month. July lean hogs are down $0.22 at $93.12, August lean hogs are down $1.92 at $96.60 and October lean hogs are down $1.15 at $81.42.

The projected lean hog index for 7/6/2026 is up $0.11 at $91.66 and the actual index for 7/2/2026 is down $0.12 at $91.55. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that 1,477 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $96.96. Pork cutouts total 205.05 loads with 182.39 loads of pork cuts and 22.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.74, $97.99.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Find Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle were able to post minor gains on Monday except for the August contract. Another day of lower highs and lower lows gives the impression that some liquidation is taking place. The market seems to have run out of steady bullish information, which is needed for consistent support at these lofty levels. Cash weakness is a reality, and further weakness is expected this week. Boxed beef prices have been weakening, with choice down $0.59 and select down $1.56 on Monday. Prices remain at high levels, but the inability to show further gains is increasing the caution of traders. Feeder cattle futures closed lower on Monday with futures declining faster than they increased. Feeder cattle remain in strong demand with premiums being paid in many cases for cattle. The Commitment of Traders report showed the fund traders reducing their long positions by 6,143 contracts to a net long of 119,440. Feeder cattle showed selling of 88 contracts, reducing their net-long position to 15,607.

Hog futures closed higher in the October and later contracts as the market seems to be building further support. Both cash and cutout prices have been holding at levels they were at when futures were higher than they are now. It is reasonable to believe that futures should be higher, but traders have found the confidence to buy into the market for the long term. No price change was reported in the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report Monday due to packer confidentiality, but the expectation is that prices were higher. Pork cutout values increased $0.19. The Commitment of Traders report showed further liquidation by the fund traders. They were net sellers of 4,759 contracts, increasing their short positions to 38,411 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The feedlots will not be anxious to sell cattle at lower prices this week. They would rather hold than sell, as weakness could generate further weakness.	1)	Cattle futures have a head and shoulders pattern that suggests further technical liquidation is possible.
2)	Cattle futures may have retraced sufficiently to increase the buying interest of bullish traders. A price correction is a buying opportunity.	2)	Further weakness is anticipated in cash cattle this week. Demand seems to have slowed as boxed beef prices are trending lower.
3)	Hog futures have been maintaining support over the past two weeks as traders are not willing to press the market lower. This may provide traders with the confidence to establish long-term buy positions.	3)	Hog futures in later contracts have yet to find support and pull away from the sideways trading pattern. If traders become disappointed, further weakness could develop.
4)	Hog futures have yet to retrace some of the losses since mid-May. It seems as if a retracement is underway.	4)	Packers continue to find sufficient market-ready hogs available, leaving them less aggressive in the cash market.

Monday, July 6, 2026

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Follow Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex ended the day mixed as traders simply want to see greater fundamental support before they're overly aggressive in the marketplace. New showlists appear to be about steady in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Texas, and higher in Kansas. December corn is up 16 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $9.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 155.84 points and the NASDAQ is up 288.49 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day just slightly stronger, as traders found a tick of technical support around the market's 100-day moving average. Now time will tell if that minimal support will be enough to hold the market steady, but if boxed beef demand and cash prices both trade lower throughout the week. Personally, I'm skeptical. August live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $239.10, October live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $234.65 and December live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $234.47. New showlists appear to be about steady in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Texas, and higher in Kansas.

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 103,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.59 ($386.48) and select down $1.56 ($365.87) with a movement of 102 loads (56.61 loads of choice, 12.17 loads of select, 11.98 loads of trim and 20.92 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With boxed beef prices starting the week off lower, and with packers able to get cattle bought cheaper last week, it's likely that packers will try to get the market worked lower again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It will be interesting to see how the feeder cattle market pans out this week, as today was a conflicting story for the market to try to decipher. On one hand, you saw the feeder cattle contracts close lower, seeming to respect and keep in line with last week's trend, but on the other hand, in the countryside feeder cattle demand was red hot. August feeders closed $0.12 lower at $360.50, September feeders closed $0.60 lower at $357.87 and October feeders closed $0.77 lower at $354.80. At the Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers sold steady to $10.00 higher, except five weight steers, which traded $15.00 to $18.00 stronger. Feeder heifers sold $5.00 lower to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 79%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/2/2026: down $1.52, $371.11.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts ended the day mixed, with a couple of the nearby contracts closing lower while the remaining deferred contracts closed higher. More than anything, traders want to see continued consumer demand in order to keep pushing the contracts higher. July lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $93.35, August lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $98.52 and October lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $82.57. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 2,988 head sold throughout the day and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $97.21. Pork cutouts total 292.30 loads with 264.16 loads of pork cuts and 28.14 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.19, $96.25. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head -- 16,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/1/2026: up $0.19, $91.67.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values closing higher, packers will likely be a tick more aggressive in Tuesday's cash market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Start Week in Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour with the lean hog contracts hopeful support will remain evident throughout this week's trade; but the cattle contracts are mixed. New showlists appear to be about steady in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Texas, and higher in Kansas. December corn is up 13 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $7.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 29.90 points and NASDAQ is up 334.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following the recent five-day decline in the live cattle complex, Monday's market has been met with some minor support from traders as the contracts are trading mildly higher into the noon hour. August live cattle are up $0.15 at $239.35, October live cattle are up $0.57 at $234.87 and December live cattle are up $0.40 at $234.62. New showlists appear to be about steady in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Texas, and higher in Kansas. Unfortunately, unless something develops positively from the market's fundamentals -- which may be a tough measure to bet on this week as boxed beef prices are trading lower and the trend seems to be lower in the cash market too -- it's unlikely the board will find much upward momentum.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $403, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at $255, which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.17 ($385.90) and select down $2.47 ($364.96) with a movement of 60 loads (31.55 loads of choice, 6.12 loads of select, 8.29 loads of trim and 14.24 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Sure, the live cattle contracts may be trading mildly higher, but the feeder cattle contracts haven't been as quick to jump and turn higher at the week's start given that boxed beef prices are lower and demand softened slightly last week for feeder cattle. August feeders are down $0.22 at $360.40, September feeders are down $0.87 at $357.77 and October feeders are down $0.85 at $354.72. With the market now trading at its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, it's likely traders will be skeptical of being overly bullish give the technical risk that looms.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher as the market is hoping to keep with the upward trend that was seen last week. With the early support of consumer demand, there's a chance traders may be able to push the market mildly higher as the next resistance level doesn't appear until around the $100 mark in the spot August contract. August lean hogs are down $0.27 at $98.47, October lean hogs are up $0.47 at $82.50 and December lean hogs are up $0.42 at $73.80.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/2/2026 is down $0.12 at $91.55, and the actual index for 7/1/2026 is up $0.18 at $91.67. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see only 2,163 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $96.98. Pork cutouts total 200.76 loads with 186.43 loads of pork cuts and 14.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.33, $96.39.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - A Cautious Beginning Is Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures continued their descent on Thursday with further selling due to the cash cattle weakness. Southern live cattle had further sales averaging $3.00 lower, with Northern dressed cattle $5.00 lower. The weakness last week may have set the stage for prices to retest the lows from June 4. The weakness in boxed beef may add to the pressure. Boxed beef prices on Thursday were lower, with choice down $4.19 and select down $2.26. Now that holiday demand is behind, and summer weather impacts beef demand, further weakness in boxed beef prices may continue. Cattle supplies remain low, but demand will dictate prices.

Hog futures showed continued spread trading. Bull spreading on Thursday indicates market uncertainty about demand and prices late this year and into 2027. The December and February contracts tested the lows from Nov. 14, 2025. Bullish traders continue to search for any signs of support, but have been unable to find it. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report on Thursday showed cash down $1.45. Packers may step up aggressively today to purchase after the holiday, as they increase slaughter. Pork cutouts increased $0.35.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Crude oil prices continue to weaken, with some projections that prices could fall back near $60 per barrel. This will increase disposable income and maintain beef demand.	1)	Live cattle futures fell below the 40-day moving average last week, increasing the selling interest of technical traders.
2)	After five days of futures weakness and lower highs, bullish traders may step back in to buy the break.	2)	The weakness last week in cattle futures may set the stage for futures to retest the lows from June 4.
3)	Packers may step up to purchase hogs aggressively today to increase slaughter and make up for the holiday-shortened week. This would improve cash.	3)	Hog futures are in jeopardy of falling below the lows in later contracts. This could open the door for further selling.
4)	Technical traders may increase buying interest at contract lows as it is unlikely hog prices will remain at those levels.	4)	Cash hogs and pork cutouts continue to fluctuate in a range, leaving traders disappointed. Pork supplies remain plentiful.

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Close Lower Once Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures have remained lightly traded through the entire week, which is not unusual for a Fourth of July Holiday week. With markets closed Friday in celebration of Independence Day, traders are focusing on trade early next week. It is expected that the overall volume should return to a more normal routine. But the uncertainty of whether this will bring aggressive buyer support back to the livestock market, especially the cattle complex, may keep many traders hesitant to actively step back into the market. Nearby live cattle and feeder cattle posted sharp double-digit losses for the week, focusing on the demand side of the market during the last half of the summer and fall months. Lean hog futures posted strong late-week gains, but most of this support is likely due to previous market pressure and end-of-the-week short covering rather than changing market conditions. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.45 with a weighted average of $95.47 on 916 hogs. December corn closed down 3/4 at $4.415 and December soybean meal closed down $0.30 at $304.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 594.83 at 52,900.07.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures posted another discouraging market close Thursday, with late-day pressure posting losses of $2 to $2.50 per cwt through the entire complex. All contracts are now comfortably traded well under $240 per cwt, with August closing at $239.22 per cwt, while the rest of the complex has now moved below $235 per cwt. Boxed beef values posted strong late-week weakness, but it is uncertain just how much additional pressure will be seen in wholesale meat markets in the next week, given the shift lower in futures prices and cash trade. Cash cattle trade continued to develop during the day Thursday. Given the upcoming holiday weekend and trade that started to develop Wednesday, it appears the bulk of business is essentially completed for the week, with Northern dressed deals marked at mostly $403, $5 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals came in at $255, $3 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. August live cattle closed $2.60 lower at $239.225, October live cattle closed $2.43 lower at $234.3 and December live cattle closed $2.35 lower at $234.225.

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, steady with a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.19 ($387.07) and select down $2.26 ($367.43) with a movement of 111.62 loads (83.98 loads of choice, 10.71 loads of select, 8.25 loads of trim and 8.68 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Thursday, Most of the expected business needing to be done for the week is already in the books. Additional trade that may develop is likely to fit into the range seen over the last couple of days.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures posted additional sharp market losses, with limited buyer interest anywhere in sight on the eve of the Independence Day Holiday weekend. Although prices hovered within moderate to firm losses through most of the session, late-day selling pressure developed, with prices falling nearly $4 per cwt at the end of the week. Spot month August contracts fell $12.68 per cwt through the week, creating additional concerns about further market pressure that could develop during early July. There still remains hope that the lack of market activity during this past week accelerated the downward shift, which will keep traders and market watchers closely monitoring opening market moves Monday morning. Futures trade will remain closed Friday due to the Fourth of July Holiday. August feeders closed $3.53 lower at $360.625, September feeders closed $3.70 lower at $358.475 and October feeders closed $3.73 lower at $355.575. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 30: down $5.74, $371.25.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog bounced higher in nearby summer and fall contracts Thursday, although the tone of the market remains extremely weak. As stated over the last couple of days, August contracts are showing the most price support, but August contracts also remain extremely lightly traded with limited open interest compared to surrounding contracts. This is limiting the impact of current price moves based on the lack of contracts that are impacted by this move. July contracts posted a 50-cent per cwt increase, moving to $93.85 per cwt. This price is still over $9 per cwt below the 40-day moving average. And dangerously close to testing the April 2025 contract low. A move below this low at $91.80 in the near future could quickly spark significant technical pressure. July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $93.85, August lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $98.75 and October lean hogs closed $0.53 higher at $82.025. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 455,000 head, 11,000 head less than a week ago and 52,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 232.61 loads with 208.93 loads of pork cuts and 23.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.35 at $96.06. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 30: up $0.24, $91.48.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Cash market weakness seen through the last half of the week is expected to continue to be seen Monday. Limited processing speeds will be seen over the next few days with plants on holiday schedules.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Continued Cattle Market Pressure Seen

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures appear to be casually coasting into the long holiday weekend with the same lackluster interest seen through the previous few days. Cattle futures continue to hold moderate to firm losses, trading $1 to $2 per cwt lower in all nearby live and feeder cattle contracts. The hope that buyer interest would redevelop after the first of the month has so far not proven out. But now the focus seems to be on potential buyer support early next week once holiday schedules are cleared and trade activity returns to a more normal routine. The Fourth of July holiday trade nearly always creates some volume disruptions in the market given how the holiday falls each year during the week, combined with summer vacation schedules. Lean hog futures seem to be showing limited signs of buyer interest during the morning trade, although at this point, anything except sharp nearly limit gains would still be considered minimal given the recent market pressure through the complex. December corn is up 3/4 at $4.43 and December soybean meal is up $0.70 at $305.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 352.58 at 52,657.82.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are showing additional end-of-week weakness with late 2026 and early 2027 contracts holding losses at or near $2 per cwt at midday Thursday. Market apathy continues due to very light trade volume during the holiday week, as well as little to no new fundamental or technical market factors developing Thursday. All nearby contracts are now trading below the $240 per cwt threshold, which could create an additional barrier for the market in the next couple of weeks. Trade is expected to remain sluggish within the current daily trading range through the rest of the session as traders prepare for the long holiday weekend. Futures markets are closed Friday, with a normal schedule for Monday, potentially bringing back additional volume and interest. Cash cattle trade is starting to become more active through the morning Thursday. It is expected both sides will attempt to wrap things up before the end of the day, heading into the long holiday weekend with enough business done for next week's needs. Light to moderate trade is being reported in Kansas and Nebraska at fully steady money with Wednesday's business. A few additional bids are also on the table in those areas. A light trade was reported in most areas Wednesday. Northern dressed deals took place at mostly $403 -- $5 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals came in at $255, $3 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. August live cattle are $1.45 lower at $240.375, October live cattle are $1.05 lower at $235.675, December live cattle are $0.98 lower at $235.60.

Boxed beef prices are Mixed: choice down $3.61 ($387.65) and select down $0.49 ($369.20) with a movement of 58.30 loads (42.05 loads of choice, 4.03 loads of select, 6.23 loads of trim and 5.99 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures continue to erode lower Thursday, despite hope that traders would try to square positions at the end of the week following strong market pressure during the entire week. With front-month futures falling over $10 per cwt in the last week, the concern is additional market pressure may develop despite continued focus on tight supplies and overall expectations that domestic beef demand will remain strong in the upcoming months. Very limited market interest is seen in a feeder cattle complex that is hard pressed to be actively traded in a normal week. The expectation that additional volume will return to the market early next week could bring about additional volatility to the feeder cattle market Monday. August feeders are $1.45 lower at $362.7, September feeders are $1.35 lower at $360.825 and October feeders are $1.80 lower at $357.50.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are the bright spot of the livestock complex Thursday morning, but only because nearby trade is holding prices in positive territory, compared to moderate to strong losses developing in cattle trade. Little to no additional fundamental or technical shifts have developed in late-week trade as traders prepare more for the long holiday weekend than any other factor at this point. August futures are leading the complex higher with a $1.52 per cwt gain, but the August complex also has significantly lower market volume than surrounding contracts. This light volume adds to uncertainty about how substantial the late-week gains are and whether this support can hold early next week when additional trade volume enters the market. July lean hogs are $0.40 higher at $93.75, August lean hogs are $1.28 higher at $98.325 and October lean hogs are $0.38 higher at $81.875. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.37 with a weighted average of $95.79, ranging from $94.00 to $98.00 on 715 head with a five-day rolling average of $96.98. Pork cutouts totaled 132.27 loads with 118.40 loads of pork cuts and 13.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.12 at $95.63.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash Cattle Trade to Continue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures tried to regain a foothold Wednesday, making a valiant effort to regain some of the recent losses. Although the October and later live cattle contracts closed slightly higher, the nearby August closed lower, resulting in a lower high and lower low. Even though the August carries a substantial discount to cash, traders have been unwilling to support the contracts, being concerned about the strength of cash over the next two months. We know supplies are tight, but the market is driven by demand. Cash cattle trade on Wednesday showed Southern live cattle $3.00 lower and Northern dressed cattle $5.00 lower. This may keep traders cautious about becoming exuberant with buying. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $1.90 and select down $1.99. Feeder cattle showed greater weakness as traders are uncertain over near-term prices.

Hog futures have been the recipient of spread trading over the past week. Bear-spreading took place on Wednesday, unwinding the bull spreads of earlier in the week. Traders are uncertain whether support is being established or there may be another leg down at some point. The safer way to trade the market is through spread trading. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.66 on good volume. It seems packers have purchased a large portion of their needs for the week with cash expected to be lower Thursday. Pork cutout values increased $0.22. The markets will be closed on Friday for the July 4 holiday weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Lower cash cattle trade is already factored in, which could result in some short-covering and new buying interest ahead of the extended weekend.	1)	Cash weakness was not expected and may cause traders to maintain the significant discount of August live cattle futures to cash.
2)	Fuel prices continue to decline, which may increase consumers' disposable income and help maintain strong beef demand despite high beef prices.	2)	Boxed beef prices may show weakness after the July 4 holiday as summer weather may impact beef consumption.
3)	Hog futures are slowly building an uptrend as support holds. Slaughter remains strong, indicating good demand.	3)	The weekly hog weights increased by 0.8 pounds to average 286.9 pounds. This is 2.8 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	Hog futures remain oversold, which could result in further short-covering as the market seems to have established support.	4)	Hog futures continue to remain near support, trying to establish an uptrend. However, market fundamentals have provided little reason for traders to become bullish.

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Close Lower Once Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle futures seemed to be on an early quest to regain at least a portion of the strong market losses seen earlier in the week. But the combination of softer cash cattle activity and general market apathy at the end of the session led to these early gains quickly eroding before the closing bell. The pushed spot August live cattle futures lower at the end of the session, although other nearby contracts were able to etch out the slightest of gains. Even though most live cattle contracts closed higher, this was still a moral defeat for the entire market, given the focus on rebounding from the late June market slide. Trade Thursday is expected to remain sluggish and likely once again unpredictable given the long holiday weekend approaching, and the lack of additional market news from a fundamental or technical standpoint before the end of the week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.66 with a weighted average of $96.92 on 6,950 hogs. December corn closed up 6 1/4 at $4.423 and December soybean meal closed up $1.60 at $304.7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 13.96 at 52,305.24.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures closed mixed Wednesday in limited trade volume as traders not only took into account the inability of feeder cattle to hold early gains, but also the general lack of buyer interest moving back into the market after late-month liquidation seemed to be generally disheartening. August futures were the only contract to close lower in the nearby contracts, but even this shift remains concerning, especially given the chart direction as June contracts expired, and August took over as spot month contracts at a $12 per cwt discount. Chart shifts do not create a clear picture of the market; we all understand this. But for those traders who are measuring market direction from a 30,000 ft view, it does become a factor in at least a portion of the buying decisions. Trade is expected to remain extremely sluggish throughout the rest of the week, which may add even more volatility to the market Thursday.

Cash cattle trade started to develop through mid to late afternoon, although it is likely that additional trade will still need to be done before the end of the week for next week's full processing schedules. Light trade developed in several areas this afternoon, with Northern dressed deals at mostly $403, $5 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live trade came in at $255, $3 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. Much of this trade was done after the Mandatory cut-off, so it will be interesting to see just how many head traded when summaries are released tomorrow. August live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $241.825, October live cattle closed $0.08 higher at $236.725 and December live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $236.575.

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.90 ($391.26) and select down $1.99 ($369.69) with a movement of 113.12 loads (78.51 loads of choice, 15.38 loads of select, 9.12 loads of trim and 10.11 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Wednesday, Light but limited trade is still expected in the cash markets Thursday. The early moves of cattle, $3 to $5 per cwt lower than last week's average, seem to set a lower tone for the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures were probably the most disappointing complex in the livestock market Wednesday. Early buyer support stepped into the complex, helping prices rebound slightly from early-week losses. But the inability to sustain these triple-digit gains and close lower in all nearby contracts added even more concern and uncertainty to the entire feeder cattle market, which has tumbled significantly in the last week. With markets closed Friday, and many traders expected to remain absent Thursday ahead of the holiday break, it is unlikely that a strong market direction will develop yet this week. August feeders closed $0.45 lower at $364.15, September feeders closed $0.35 lower at $362.175 and October feeders closed $0.35 lower at $359.3. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 29: down $0.41, $376.99.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog traded caught wind of the lack of support through the rest of the complex, Wednesday afternoon. The most aggressive pressure was seen in nearby contracts, with August futures leading the market lower with a $1.15 per cwt loss. August futures remain extremely lightly traded, especially given the limited market volume and activity during this holiday week. But the inability to show positive results, given the current market pressure, is adding even more concerns both fundamentally and technically. Although the overall lack of interest in the market this week is making it hard to put too much stock into any daily moves, but the lack of optimism in the market continues to be very evident. July lean hogs closed $0.98 lower at $93.35, August lean hogs closed $1.15 lower at $97.05 and October lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $81.50. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 239.37 loads with 197.98 loads of pork cuts and 41.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.22 at $95.71. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 29: down $0.17, $91.24.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Limited market direction is expected through the end of the week. Thursday is expected to be the last full day of hog processing for the week through the country, with holiday schedules limiting overall plant capacities Friday and Saturday due to the Fourth of July Holiday.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Buyer Support Develops

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures have gained light to moderate buyer support, as traders shake off the pressure seen over the last couple of days with a new month and new quarter to focus on. The reality is there is very little new information available in the market and overall trade interest should be quiet this entire week due to the holiday. Each day there will likely be even less participation and market interest ahead of the holiday with futures markets closed Friday. Firm triple-digit gains have developed in both live and feeder cattle contracts Wednesday morning, but this is still unable to reverse the strong market weakness seen over the last week. Lean hog futures are mostly higher in limited but positive trade interest with narrow gains able to be sustained through most of the morning session. December corn is up 4 3/4 at $4.408 and December soybean meal is up $1.70 at $304.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 407.68 at 52,726.88.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have firmed slightly at midweek, although the tone and activity of the entire cattle complex -- and especially the live cattle market -- seems cautious at best. Following the strong market move lower over the past couple of weeks, traders remain concerned about the ability to sustain beef values and product support through the last summer and fall months. At this point, the ability to move additional domestic product at higher price levels this year has gone well. But the underlying concern remains about the economy, whether consumers will start cutting budgets, and where the first and most drastic cuts will be seen. This is leading factor for the recent market volatility in both feeder cattle and live cattle futures over the past couple of months. Cash cattle markets remain generally undeveloped Wednesday morning. A few bids are now on the table in parts of eastern Nebraska, but asking prices remain very elusive; the rest of cattle country remains very quiet. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses. It is expected that both sides will try to wrap things up before Friday and extend the holiday weekend. But for now, there is likely to be a wide gap to close before any significant trade can be agreed on. August live cattle are $0.25 higher at $242.675, October live cattle are $0.90 higher at $237.55, December live cattle are $0.88 higher at $237.25.

Boxed beef prices are Lower: choice down $0.19 ($392.97) and select down $1.10 ($370.58) with a movement of 59.40 loads (39.78 loads of choice, 6.49 loads of select, 6.31 loads of trim and 6.82 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are leading the cattle market and entire livestock complex higher Wednesday morning as traders are covering previous losses seen at the end of June. Although very little has changed fundamentally or technically in the market over the past couple of days, the fact that traders are working on a new month and quarter of books has in itself helped spark some buyer support back into the complex. All nearby contracts are holding gains of $2 per cwt or greater at midday. Without any additional significant shifts in outside market news, it is likely this support will hold, allowing traders to potentially carry the renewed interest into the end of the week. With markets closed Friday for the Fourth of July holiday, and overall trade interest subdued through the entire week due to holiday and vacation schedules, it is not surprising that overall market participation has been limited during the entire week. August feeders are $1.98 higher at $366.575, September feeders are $1.80 higher at $364.325 and October feeders are $1.78 higher at $361.425.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are mostly higher Wednesday morning, although limited interest and new market information as the session has continued is eroding a portion of early support. Mixed trade with light pressure in nearby contracts is being offset by light to moderate buying activity very slowly trickling into deferred contracts. Traders seem to be finding some underlying support at current price levels, although prices are still well below the 40-day moving average in all nearby contracts. The longer-term concern about expanded pork demand and the ability to open up increased export trade continues to be the biggest shadow hovering over the market heading into July. July lean hogs are $0.45 lower at $93.875, August lean hogs are $0.28 higher at $98.475 and October lean hogs are $0.53 higher at $82.525. Hog Prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.11 with a weighted average of $97.16, ranging from 94.00 to 98.00 on 4,125 head with a five-day rolling average of 97.14. Pork cutouts totaled 149.81 loads with 120.83 loads of pork cuts and 28.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.83 at $95.62.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - CME to Launch a Beef Trim Contract

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The June live cattle contract went off the board on a positive note Tuesday, settling at $258.20. The discount held by the August contract increased further on Tuesday and was about $16.00 below the June. This could point to strength as time moves forward and the cash market holds where it currently is. Some of the recent selling might have been due to it being the end of the month and the end of the quarter, as fund traders took some profits to close out their books. If that were the case, they may renew buying Wednesday. Cash cattle have not yet traded and may not trade Wednesday either. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.72 and select down $2.50. CME will launch beef trim futures and options tied to 50% lean and 90% lean trim, the key inputs used to make ground beef, hamburgers and meatballs. It signals beef price volatility has become big enough that CME sees demand for a more precise risk-management product beyond live cattle and feeder cattle futures. The contract will begin on July 20.

Hog futures did not show much volatility Tuesday with traders finding little to move the market significantly. Futures have seen greater support in the nearby month and have developed a slight uptrend. Later contracts continue to remain in a sideways pattern. Packers have been more aggressive with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $4.14 on good volume. Packers wanted to purchase hogs early due to the upcoming holiday weekend. The aggressive buying may be finished with lower cash prices expected Wednesday. Unfortunately, pork cutout values declined $2.17.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have declined for three consecutive days. Now that it is a new month, traders may step back in to purchase more aggressively.	1)	With July 4 demand being met, beef prices may slide further as we move into the dog days of summer.
2)	The August live cattle contract continues to hold a large discount to cash. Futures may move higher to narrow the gap.	2)	Cattle futures may see further weakness as the market is not receiving continued bullish news.
3)	Nearby hog futures are trending higher as some near-term fundamentals may be showing positive signs.	3)	Later hog contracts have not been able to break out of the sideways trading pattern; a break below that level would trigger further selling.
4)	Cash hogs are showing increased support, with the weighted average on Tuesday moving to $97.58.	4)	Pork cutouts have not seen consistent support, which is needed for traders to turn bullish.