Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Bullish Cash Trade Sends Live Cattle to New High

GENERAL COMMENTS

Active futures contracts were higher for live cattle and feeder cattle Friday, supported by broadly higher cash trade in all regions. Hog futures were roughly steady after Thursday afternoon's mostly neutral Hogs and Pigs report.

LIVE CATTLE:

June cattle closed up $1.12 at a new contract high of $162.12 Friday, also a sixth consecutive higher close, and capped a stellar gain of $5.52 on the week. Even before this week's higher cash trade developed, cattle futures traded higher as outside markets calmed down, helped by no fresh news of further banking problems. Thursday's cash trade put the focus back on fundamentals as live cattle traded $3 to $4 higher in the South and around $170 in the North, up $6 from a week ago. Northern dressed trade took place around $270, roughly $5 higher than last week.

USDA estimated Friday's cattle slaughter at 120,000, up 12,000 from a week ago and 5,000 more than expected Friday morning. So far in 2023, total slaughter is down 2.3%, but beef production is down 4.0%, the result of lighter cattle. In addition to active slaughter, boxed beef prices held up well this week, helped by a boost on Friday afternoon. Choice beef ended the week at $282.07, up $2.29 on the week and selects ended at $270.72, up $1.97 on the week. As long as retail beef demand remains active, cattle prices should continue to find bullish support.

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to lower Monday, a cautious start to the week after Friday's bullish surge.

FEEDER CATTLE:

May feeder cattle also traded higher Friday, closing up 80 cents at 205.25, but short of its contract high of $207.02. In the case of feeders, this week's cash trade was also compelling and helped lift prices higher, but an 11-cent jump in May corn, related to a lower-than-expected corn stocks total for March 1, slightly dampened the bullish enthusiasm for feeders.

South Dakota is encountering a winter storm Friday that is expected to move eastward and stress livestock. Another similar storm is expected to cross the northern Plains later next week. Technically speaking, May feeder cattle survived a brief sell-off earlier this month, related to bank failures, but have strong fundamental arguments, supporting the current uptrend. As I've often said, everyone knows more feeder cattle will be needed in the months ahead. The latest CME Feeder Index was up 99 cents at $193.34 for Thursday, March 30.

LEAN HOGS:

June lean hogs ended up 2 cents at $91.62 Friday, a quiet response to Thursday afternoon's mostly neutral report from USDA. The bearish parts of the report revised the Dec. 1 inventory up 1.28 million head and showed hogs above 180 pounds were up 2% from a year ago. In response, April hogs closed down $1.20 Friday at a new contract low of $75.25. National negotiated cash hogs were also hit in Friday afternoon's Daily Direct report, falling to 71.90 cents. The national market formula price fell to 73.24 cents. The slightly bullish part of the report showed May-May farrowing intentions less than expected and down 1% from a year ago. June-August farrowing intentions were even more supportive at down 3% from a year ago. August lean hogs were up 65 cents at $94.42 Friday.

One positive for hog prices lately has been the active slaughter pace. USDA estimated Friday's slaughter at 472,000, however, down from last week's 482,000 and less than the 480,000 estimated Friday morning. So far in 2023, the hog slaughter is up 1.7% from a year ago, and that doesn't seem to be enough to accommodate the hogs available. Pork production is up 1.1% from a year ago. Friday afternoon's carcass value was pegged at $77.28, down $3.77 from last Friday afternoon and pressured Friday by losses in ribs and bellies, evidence of retail sluggishness that we're not seeing in beef. CME's most recent lean hog index was projected down 31 cents at $75.46 for Thursday, March 30, 2023.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady in June with little help for cash prices expected anytime soon.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Futures Higher After Bullish Cash Trade, Neutral Hog Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

June cattle and May feeders continue to trade higher this week, encouraged by higher cash trade Thursday and a lack of distraction from outside markets. June lean hogs started lower but are modestly higher at midmorning as traders digest Thursday's afternoon's Hogs and Pigs report.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are higher at midmorning Friday with the June contract up 75 cents at $161.75, approaching its contract high at $161.90.

Light to moderate cash trade took place Thursday in producers' favor. Live trade in the South was mostly around $167, up $4 on the week, while live trade in the North was reported from $168 to $172, up $3 to $7 from last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed trade was mostly $270 to $272, up $5 to $6 from last week. We'll keep watching for any remaining reports Friday, but the week's business could be done.

A winter storm is developing in South Dakota Friday morning, expected to work eastward to Wisconsin later in the day. Much of the Midwest and southern Midwest is at risk of severe weather Friday with high winds expected. Meanwhile, red flag warnings are posted throughout the southwestern Plains as conditions remain hostile to livestock and vegetation.

Also helping this week's higher cattle prices, traders' worries about the banking sector has calmed down and boxed beef prices haven't changed much from last Friday, a good sign of retail demand. Boxed beef prices were higher early Friday with choice up $2.45 at $281.65 and selects up $1.38 at $269.84, based on a movement of 70 loads. Slaughter has stayed active this week, but on Friday, Dow Jones is estimating only 115,000 head, down from 117,000 last week. Saturday's slaughter is estimated at 15,000, 1,000 less than last week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

At midmorning Friday, May feeder cattle are up $1.35 at $205.80, approaching the contract high at $207.02 after seeing Thursday's higher cash prices for live cattle. These are also near the highest spot prices for feeder cattle since 2015. Helped earlier this week by an easing of concerns about the economy, feeder cattle prices shot higher, knowing that as long as demand for U.S. beef remains active, cattle and feeder cattle prices are almost certain to keep going higher, given the limited number of cattle available. At some point, high prices will slow that demand, but we don't see many signs of that yet.

Friday's winter storm appears to be starting in western South Dakota and will move eastward as the day goes on. Another winter storm is expected to take a similar track next week. If there is good news from this, it is that chances are looking better for green pastures in the northwestern states this spring. The southwestern Plains, unfortunately, have not had the moisture and are expected to remain in drought early in 2023. Technically speaking, the trend in May feeder cattle continues to point up, supported by a need for more feeders in the months ahead. The latest CME Feeder Index was up $1.08 at $192.35 for Wednesday, March 29.

LEAN HOGS:

At midmorning Friday, June hog futures are trading up 40 cents at $92.00, a neutral response to Thursday afternoon's Hogs and Pigs report. The report was neutral on the surface, but a little bearish for cash prices and April futures and a little supportive for back months. The all hogs and pigs inventory for March 1 was as expected at 72.86 million head. Adding bearish pressure to cash prices, USDA revised the Dec. 1 inventory up 1.28 million head and said available hogs weighing 180 pounds or more were up 2% from a year ago. On the supportive side for back months, March-May farrowing intentions were down 1% from a year ago and a little less than expected. June-August farrowing intentions were down 3% from a year ago. April hogs are trading down 85 cents at 75.60.

With the report now in the rearview mirror, it is back to business with Dow Jones estimating Friday's slaughter at 480,000, up from 479,000 last week. Saturday's slaughter is expected at 97,000, up from 64,000 last Saturday. Carcass value has been under pressure this week and was reported at $73.15 Friday morning. Cash hog prices in Friday morning's Daily Direct Hog report also remain under pressure this week with national negotiated trades averaging 76.04 cents per pound and the swine formula base averaging 73.88. The CME's latest lean hog index was was projected down 23 cents at $75.77 on March 29, 2023.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Early Trading Activity Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders became more aggressive buyers of cattle futures as cash trading unfolded. Packers could not afford to hold back any longer, paying $4.00 higher for Southern cattle and $5.00 and higher for dressed cattle in the North. This pushed April cattle futures to a new contract high along with December and later contracts. June, August, and October contracts are knocking on the door of new highs. However, boxed beef was lower again with choice down $1.09 and select down $0.44. Slaughter remains active as retail demand is strong. Weekly export sales were not supportive at 11,300 metric tons (mt), down 40% from the previous week, but the market did not care Thursday. Feeder cattle posted triple-digit gains across the board. The April contract is now the front month and closed just shy of $200 yesterday. August and later contracts moved to new contract highs.

Many wish hogs were in the same position as cattle, but such is not the case as supplies are larger and overall demand continues to struggle. Cutouts were down $1.47 Wednesday, indicating demand is lacking unable to keep up with availability. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.44. Weekly export sales were good at 30,400 mt but were still 20% lower than the previous week. It is uncertain how the market will trade Friday as the Hogs & Pigs report was neutral. All categories were in line with estimates. All hogs and pigs were 100.2% of a year ago, totaling 72.860 million head. The estimate was 100.3%. Kept for breeding were 100.4%, totaling 6.127 million head with the estimate at 100.6%. Kept for marketing at 100.2%, totaling 66.734 million head with the estimate at 100.3%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs were established in both live and feeder cattle contracts, erasing the losses of earlier this month.	1)	Boxed beef has been struggling the past few days. Retail prices may be too high for some consumers, resulting in reduced demand.
2)	Strong cash trade as packers needed to step up to purchase cattle aggressively will increase the resolve of feedlots next week.	2)	June and August live cattle contracts have a chart gap below that may be filled at some point.
3)	A neutral Hogs & Pigs report could provide some support in the market as it is oversold.	3)	Hogs weighing 180 pounds and over were 2% higher than a year ago according to the report released Thursday. This may keep some pressure on the market or limit upside potential for a time.
4)	The higher cash Thursday was a bit unusual as generally packers have their needs covered earlier in the week. They may need to remain aggressive today.	4)	Funds still hold record short futures positions and were comfortable holding those positions through the report.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Push Higher; USDA Hog Report Offers Mixed Clues

GENERAL COMMENTS

Active futures contracts were higher for live cattle and feeder cattle Thursday, supported by reports of higher cattle trade in Kansas and Nebraska. Hog futures were also higher despite bearish possibilities in Thursday afternoon's Hogs and Pigs report.

LIVE CATTLE:

June cattle closed up $1.35 at $161.00 Thursday, a fifth consecutive higher close and now within a dollar of its contract high. Cattle prices have been helped by an easing of concerns around this month's bank failures and Thursday brought bullish news from the cash arena. Southern live trade was reported, mostly around $167, up $4 from last week, but also some higher. Dressed trade in Nebraska was reported at $270 to $272, up $5 and more from last week. With one day left in March, Thursday's close in June cattle recovered all but 35 cents of the sell-off triggered by this month's banking worries.

USDA estimated Thursday's cattle slaughter at 126,000, up 2,000 from a week ago and 1,000 more than expected Thursday morning. The active slaughter pace is a good sign retail demand remains active, despite concerns about the economy. It also helps that boxed beef prices are holding mostly steady this week. Thursday afternoon's boxed beef prices settled at $279.20 for choice and at $268.46 for selects, both below, but within a dollar of last Friday's closes.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to lower with the final day of the month sometimes prone to strange behavior.

FEEDER CATTLE:

May feeder cattle extended this week gains, closing up $1.92 at $204.45 Thursday, a third impressive higher close this week and within three dollars of its contract high. As explained above, this week's cash trade is once again, showing packers having to bid cattle higher to get the supplies they need. It is difficult to see any meaningful expansion in available cattle numbers anytime soon, meaning that everyone knows more feeder cattle will be needed.

Technically speaking, spot prices of feeder cattle are at their highest level since 2015 and show no sign yet of ending the uptrend. As long as retail demand for beef remains active, it is difficult to see much downside potential for feeder prices. The latest CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $1.08 at $191.27 for Wednesday, March 29.

LEAN HOGS:

June lean hogs closed up 77 cents at $91.60 Thursday as traders adjusted positions ahead of USDA's report. Shortly after 2 p.m. CDT, USDA said all hogs and pigs totaled 72.86 million head on March 1, up 0.2% from a year and as expected. A closer look however, showed the Dec. 1 inventory revised up, from 73.119 million head to 74.399 million head. Weight breakdowns also showed the number of hogs weighing 180 pounds are more were up 2.1% from a year ago. Both those factors are apt to keep cash hog prices under bearish pressure for at least a month.

Deferred hog contracts, on the other hand, found arguments for support in the farrowing intentions. March-May intentions were less than expected and down 1% from a year ago. June-August intentions were down 3% from a year ago. The December-February pig crop was up 0.3% from a year ago, but slightly less than expected

One positive for hog prices has been an active slaughter price, but that had a hiccup Thursday. USDA estimated Thursday's hog slaughter at 478,000, 6,000 head less than was estimated Thursday morning and down from 490,000 a week ago. Wednesday afternoon's Daily Direct Hog report showed an average negotiated hog price of $75.95 and a market formula average of $73.81, continuing the bearish trend in cash hogs. Thursday afternoon's carcass value was down $1.47 at $78.79, pressured by losses in every cut, but ribs. CME's lean hog index for March 29, 2023, was projected down 23 cents at $75.77.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to lower in April, but steady to higher in back months.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Futures Trading Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle and feeders continue to trade higher, encouraged by a lack of cash trade so far this week. June lean hogs are also modestly higher as traders prepare for Thursday's afternoon's Hogs and Pigs report.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are higher at midmorning Thursday with the June contract up 72 cents at $160.37, not far from its contract high of $161.90. The U.S. Commerce Department revised its estimate of fourth quarter real GDP a little lower, to a 0.6% gain on the quarter, but Dow Jones futures are steady to higher with no fresh negative news to scare traders. Early Thursday, USDA said 11,300 mt of beef were sold for export last week, thanks to top purchases from Japan and China. Overall, sales were a bit disappointing and less than the previous week's total of 18,600 mt.

Despite recent economic worries, boxed beef prices have held roughly steady since Friday. Boxed beef prices were lower early Thursday: choice down $1.04 at $279.25 and selects down $0.56 at $268.34 with a movement of 58 loads (32.56 loads of choice, 7.76 loads of select, 7.07 loads of trim and 10.25 loads of ground beef). Slaughter has stayed active with Dow Jones estimating 125,000 on Thursday, even with last week.

Once again, cash trade is slow to develop this week, but there is light trade reported in Kansas of live cattle at $167, up $4 from last week and dressed trade in Nebraska at $270, up $5 from last week. There is also some weather to consider. Thursday's weather map shows red flag warnings throughout the southwestern Plains with temperatures expected in the 70s and 80s later Thursday. At the same time, snow is expected to fall from South Dakota to Michigan Friday and again, later next week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

At midmorning Thursday, May feeder cattle are up 52 cents at $203.05, adding to this week's gains and rebound after worries about the banking sector contributed to selling earlier in March. Despite outside worries, May feeder prices have held up well and continue to show strong demand at a time when cattle numbers are down. Feed costs remain high in the western Plains and probably won't see much relief until the fall corn harvest, but there should be better chances for green pastures in the northwestern Plains this spring and summer. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed moisture improvement in the western states and small parts of the Dakotas. Drought was worse in parts of Texas where rains continue to miss. Overall, spot feeder cattle prices are trading near their highest prices since 2015 and remain well-supported despite the strain of high feed costs. The CME Feeder Index was down 7 cents at $191.27 for Tuesday, March 28.

LEAN HOGS:

At midmorning Thursday, June hog futures are trading up 45 cents at $91.25 as traders make last-minute adjustments ahead of USDA's Hogs and Pigs report, due out at 2 p.m. CDT. Pre-report surveys expect March 1 inventory will be up slightly from a year ago, near 72.9 million head, but there is a chance of a bearish surprise as cash hog prices have not been popular the past month. It will also be interesting to see if any December totals get revised upward. Early Thursday, USDA said 30,400 mt of pork were sold for export last week. The top buyer was Mexico and sales were down from the previous week's 38,000 mt.

Cash hog prices in Thursday's Daily Direct Hog morning report remained under pressure with negotiated trades averaging 75.56 cents per pound and the swine formula base averaging 74.36. USDA's Thursday morning pork report posted cutouts down 71 cents at $79.55, pressured by lower prices of loins, butts and bellies. USDA reported 166.08 loads of pork cuts and 7.65 loads of trim. Hog slaughter remains active and was estimated by Dow Jones at 484,00 for Thursday, up 2,000 from last week. CME's Lean Hog Index for March 28 was down 25 cents at $76.00.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Later Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures posted nice gains Wednesday, continuing to retrace the losses from the first half of March. You could say March came in like a bear and maybe out like a bull. Front-month April has nearly moved back to its previous high. Optimism is developing for higher cash trade as some feedlot offers have been hiked $1.00 in anticipation the stronger market may cause packers to bid up for cattle. Boxed beef has been higher early in the week but showed weakness Wednesday with choice down $0.34 and select down $1.46. Feeder cattle futures have been increasing despite corn prices. Demand for feeder cattle remains strong, supporting futures. Thursday is the final day to trade the March contract.

Hogs were lower right from the start and weakened further shortly thereafter. Two days of lower cutouts did not provide any fundamental support to the market. Cutouts were able to move higher Wednesday, gaining $0.26 with bellies up $7.85. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $0.13. Trading activity Thursday might be mixed as the focus will be on the Hogs & Pigs report to be released after the close. The average trade estimate for all hogs and pigs on March 1 is 100.3% of last year. Kept for breeding at 100.6% and kept for marketing at 100.3%. Traders will react according to where the actual falls relative to the estimates. Saturday slaughter is estimated to be 98,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures continue to regain the losses of the first half of March with contracts likely to retest the highs due to continued supply tightness.	1)	Recent weekly beef export sales have not been very strong, and another low number Thursday could temper upside futures potential.
2)	Some feedlots raised their offers by $1.00 Wednesday in response to the strength in futures.	2)	Boxed beef showed weakness in both categories Wednesday, which could put some pressure on trading Thursday.
3)	Hog futures remain extremely oversold moving into the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. There could be some short-covering Thursday.	3)	Hog weights increased 0.9 pounds last week to an average of 287.7 pounds. This is only 0.2 pounds below a year ago.
4)	Another good weekly export sales report for pork could provide some support under the market.	4)	The Hogs & Pigs report is expected to show hog numbers close to year-earlier levels, indicating plentiful supplies.

 

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Buyers Warm to Cattle, Stay Cold for Hogs Ahead of Thursday's USDA Report

GENERAL COMMENTS

Active futures contracts were higher for live cattle and feeders Wednesday, helped by an easing of concerns about the banking sector. June lean hogs fell $1.90, showing concerns about a possibility of higher-than-expected hog and pig inventories in Thursday's USDA report.

LIVE CATTLE:

June cattle closed up 75 cents at $159.65 Wednesday, a fourth consecutive higher close as concerns around this month's bank failures continue to ease. Dow Jones futures were trading over 200 points higher Wednesday afternoon, a sign of those easing concerns. With traders more focused on the cattle market again, June cattle prices are back above the 100-day average and are once again focused on this year's smaller herd.

USDA estimated Wednesday's cattle slaughter at 127,000, up from 126,000 a week ago and a little more than expected Wednesday morning. So far in 2023, the cattle slaughter pace is down 2.6%, but beef production is down 4.4%, reflecting not only fewer cattle, but lighter cattle weights. It is in this bullish atmosphere that packers try to secure their weekly needs and have often relented to higher prices late in the week. That appears to be the case again this week as cash trade has been slow to develop. 

Wednesday afternoon's boxed beef prices were down 34 cents at $280.29 for choice and were down $1.46 at $268.90 for selects. Both are holding small gains from Friday's close.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

May feeder cattle traded higher most the day and finished up $1.72 at $202.52 Wednesday, a second impressive gain this week. Even in the middle of March when traders were panicked by three U.S. bank failures and possibilities for more, May feeder cattle stayed well above their 100-day average and only fell to their one-month low, a sign of how strong demand is in this market. Now that those outside concerns have eased, prices have resumed their upward path. There is no secret more cattle will be needed in the months ahead, barring a bearish surprise in the economy.

Technically speaking, spot prices of feeder cattle are at their highest level since 2015 and show no sign yet of ending the uptrend. With more snow in the northwestern Plains heading into spring, it will be interesting to see if there will be enough green pastures to hold back cattle for breeding in 2023. The CME Feeder Cattle Index posted $191.27 for Tuesday, March 28, up $3.58 from a week ago.

LEAN HOGS:

Hogs started the week trying to trade higher with help from relief over outside banking concerns, but there just hasn't been enough demand. June lean hogs closed down $1.90 at $90.82 and the next challenge will be to see if prices can hold above last week's low of $87.80, the lowest June hog price in a year and a half.

USDA estimated hog slaughter at 477,000 Wednesday, less than was estimated Wednesday morning and down from 478,000 a week ago. So far in 2023, hog slaughter is up 1.6% from a year ago, a pace that has bearish implications for Thursday's Hogs and Pigs report. In its December report, USDA found 73.1 million head of hogs and pigs in inventory, down 2% from the previous year. On Thursday, many are expecting March 1 inventory slightly higher than a year ago, near 72.9 million head. Given the recent lack of demand for cash hogs, an upward revision of December totals is possible in Thursday's report.

Wednesday afternoon's Daily Direct Hog report showed an average negotiated hog price of $75.51 and a market formula average of $73.83, continuing the bearish trend in cash hogs. Wednesday afternoon's carcass value was up 26 cents at $80.26, helped by a $7.85 gain in bellies.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to lower with traders cautious ahead of USDA's 2 p.m. CDT Hogs and Pigs report for March 1.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Headline: Cattle Hold Firm, Hogs Lower Ahead of USDA Inventory Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

June live cattle are trading modestly higher for a fourth consecutive day as the market shakeout from concerns in the banking system appear to be diminishing. June lean hogs are trading lower with ongoing concerns about a recent expansion of hog numbers that will likely show up in Thursday's USDA report.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are slightly higher at mid-morning Wednesday with the June contract up 60 cents at $159.50. It is no secret cattle numbers are down and this week's prices have been helped by an easing of concerns about recent bank failures. So far this week, boxed beef prices have been steady to higher, a good sign of active retail demand. Slaughter has also stayed active with Dow Jones estimating 126,000 on Wednesday, even with last week.

As often happens when cattle supplies are tight, cash trade is slow to develop this week and there may be some interruption in the North with more winter storms expected from South Dakota to Michigan Friday and early next week. The sell-off of cattle prices in March related to fears about the banking system shook some specs out of their long positions, but fundamentally, this market continues to have its eyes set on higher prices as long as there continues to be plenty of demand for available cattle.

Boxed beef prices were mixed early Wednesday: choice up $0.46 at $281.09 and select down $0.79 at $269.57 with a movement of 60 loads (37.43 loads of choice, 8.90 loads of select, 4.91 loads of trim and 9.18 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

At mid-morning Wednesday, May feeder cattle are up $1.42 at $202.22, holding firm after Monday's $3.82 jump. Outside fears about the economy took prices to one-month lows in March, but that limited of a sell-off shows how firm feeder prices are. The obvious support is coming from those that know more feeders will be needed in the months ahead as cattle supplies struggle to keep up with beef demand. A chance for greener pastures in the northwestern Plains this spring also suggests an opportunity for holding back cattle in 2023.

Overall, spot feeder cattle prices are trading near their highest prices since 2015 and remain well-supported in spite of the strain of high feed costs. The CME Feeder Index posted $191.34 for Monday, March 27, up $3.56 from a week ago.

LEAN HOGS:

At mid-morning Wednesday, June hog futures are trading down $2.05 at $90.67, unable to hold a gain for the week with USDA's Hogs and Pigs report due out at 2 p.m. CDT Thursday. USDA's same report for December 1 said all hogs totaled 73.1 million head, down 2% from a year ago, but given the behavior of cash prices since then, it seems reasonable to say there have been more hogs available than expected. Pre-report surveys suggest the March 1 inventory will be up slightly from a year ago, near 72.5 million head. It will also be interesting to see if any December totals get revised upward.

Cash hog prices in Wednesday's Daily Direct Hog morning report remained under pressure with negotiated trades averaging 75.95 cents per pound and the swine formula base averaging 74.44. USDA's morning pork report posted Wednesday's cutouts up $1.16 at $81.16, helped by a $13.54 gain in bellies. USDA reported 147.28 loads of pork cuts and 28.66 loads of trim. Hog slaughter remains active and was estimated by Dow Jones at 484,00 for Wednesday, up 1,000 from last week. CME's lean hog index was projected at 73.05 for Thursday, up 41 cents from a week ago. The projected lean hog index for 3/27/2023 is down $0.32 at $76.25, and the actual index for 3/24/2023 is down $0.42 at $76.57.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look For Cash Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There was back-and-forth activity Tuesday with live cattle closing in positive territory. Trading ranges were narrow as there was little news. No cash trading activity took place with mixed ideas as to what that will do this week. With boxed beef showing some strength so far this week, some believe that may result in slightly higher cash. Others believe it will take more than that to push packers to pay more than steady money as they have some cattle already purchased ahead. Tuesday, boxed beef was higher with choice up $0.27 and select up $0.64. Slaughter pace continues to hold steady. Feeder cattle were mixed with March showing the greatest decline as it holds close to the index as the contract closes Thursday. Demand for feeder cattle remains strong with higher prices at auctions.

Spread trading was taking place in hogs Tuesday as the market could not follow-though from Monday and traders were positioning ahead of the upcoming Hogs & Pigs report Thursday. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.20. So far, the week has not been positive for cutouts with the price down $1.22 Tuesday. That may influence trade Wednesday, but might be offset by traders continuing to position ahead of the report. The average trade estimate for all hogs and pigs on March 1 is 100.3% of last year. Kept for breeding at 100.6% and kept for marketing at 100.3%. Cash is expected to be slightly higher Wednesday as packers will want to step up purchases to procure most of the hogs they need.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If boxed beef continues to trend higher, cash prices may also increase as feedlots will hold out for higher prices.	1)	Live cattle futures have chart gaps remaining below the market that may likely be filled at some point.
2)	Live cattle futures held gains Tuesday with the potential for futures to regain losses if stronger cash develops.	2)	Steady cash cattle trade this week could possibly retrace some of the recent gains of futures.
3)	Traders may not pressure the hog market very much ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report Thursday with the potential for further short-covering.	3)	Lower pork cutouts Tuesday may keep some pressure on the market Wednesday.
4)	Hog futures are still oversold, which may limit further selling due to the Commitment of Traders report showing funds already holding record short positions.	4)	Plentiful hog supplies keep packers from having to be very aggressive. Slaughter pace remains strong, easily meeting both domestic and international demand.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Keep Their Momentum

GENERAL COMMENTS

Overall, the livestock complex had a mixed day following Monday's wild success, as traders weren't as aggressive in Tuesday's market. The live cattle complex was able to close the day out higher, but that's largely due to the onset of strength in boxed beef prices. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.20 with a weighted average of $75.64 on 11,025 hogs. May corn closed down 1 cent at $6.473, and May soybean meal closed up $11.90 at $457.9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 37.83 at 32,394.25.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was the only livestock market able to keep Monday's momentum alive and well through Tuesday's close. The nearby contracts faced some pressure early in the day, but with boxed beef prices finding a bottom in this market, traders felt confident enough to continue to trade the contracts higher. Feedlot managers are taking note of the changes in the boxed beef complex and aim to trade cash cattle higher this week. The cash cattle market didn't see much attention throughout Tuesday's trade, but asking prices in the South are noted at $165 to $166 but remain unestablished in the North. As feedlots set out to gain $1 or $2 this week, no sizeable cash cattle sales will likely develop ahead of Thursday. April live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $164.95, June live cattle closed $0.03 higher at $158.9, and August live cattle closed $0.13 higher at $158.725.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.27 ($280.63) and select up $0.64 ($270.36) with a movement of 103.17 loads (59.25 loads of choice, 23.01 loads of select, 9.90 loads of trim and 11.01 loads of ground beef).

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1 to $2 higher. With the boxed beef market seeing more upside potential, feedlots will likely take that signal as an opportunity to advance cash prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex closed higher, the feeder cattle market closed mostly lower, as traders were leery about advancing the market too rapidly after Monday's sharp increase. When looking to Wednesday's market, there's a strong possibility that the contracts can find strength and trade higher, as corn prices haven't posed much of a threat and as feeder cattle demand throughout the countryside remains incredibly strong. April feeders closed $0.40 lower at $197.22, May feeders closed $0.57 lower at $200.80 and August feeders closed $0.10 lower at $216.90. At Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction in Worthing, South Dakota, compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady to $5 higher with instances up to $14 stronger; steers under 550 pounds saw cases where the market traded $32 stronger. Feeder heifers traded steady to $4 higher with instances of $20 higher on the lighter weights. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 85%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/27/2023: unavailable at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market had a mixed outcome by Tuesday's end, as at least the deferred contracts closed higher, but pork cutout values closed lower, and so did the nearby contracts. On Monday, we were thanking the belly for closing higher, and on Tuesday, the biggest reason why the carcass value fell $1.22 is because the belly fell a whopping $5.43. The moral of the story is that in today's market environment, the belly is extremely volatile and untrustworthy. The cash market was quiet throughout Tuesday's trade, and with pork cutout values down noticeably, packers will likely support the cash market simply because they need hogs, but prices won't likely see a significant jump. April lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $77.75, June lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $92.72 and July lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $94.67. Pork cutouts totaled 352.81 loads with 291.51 loads of pork cuts and 61.30 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.22 at $80.

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week and year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/24/2023: down $0.42, $76.57.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Slightly higher. Cash hog prices will likely be a little higher, as packers will need to procure more hogs this week. But with the cutout seeing mixed signals, packers will be leery to overly support the cash complex.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Keep Monday's Momentum

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a mixed day for the livestock complex as both the feeder cattle and lean hog markets are leery of trading higher after Monday's aggressive venture, but the live cattle complex is keeping with Monday's vigorous pace. Asking prices in the South are noted at $165 to $166 but are still unestablished in the North. May corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is up $9.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 64.46 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is the only market keeping with Monday's momentum out of the livestock complex. It's helping matters that boxed beef prices are finding some footing in this week's market and could potentially lead to stronger cash cattle trade. The nearby contracts have teetered between trading higher and trending lower, but the deferred contracts are consistently trading higher with no pressure seeming to bother their contracts. April live cattle are steady at $164.90, June live cattle are down $0.12 at $158.75 and August live cattle are steady at $158.60. It's too early in the week for any cash cattle trade to have developed, and with boxed beef prices trending higher, prices could easily trend $1.00 to $2.00 higher this week. Asking prices in the South are noted at $165 to $166 and are still unestablished in the North.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.52 ($280.88) and select up $0.94 ($270.66) with a movement of 57 loads (28.57 loads of choice, 11.94 loads of select, 7.86 loads of trim and 8.18 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After rallying throughout Monday's market, the feeder cattle contracts are back to trading lower as traders look around and appraise the market for continued support. It is encouraging that the deferred live cattle contracts are trading higher, but the immediate live cattle contracts are under some pressure. The corn complex is only trading sideways, which doesn't add too much more pressure to feeders. April feeders are down $0.40 at $197.22, May feeders are down $0.55 at $200.82 and August feeders are down $0.12 at $216.82.

LEAN HOGS:

After an ambitious Monday, the lean hog complex is trading lower, seeming to need additional support in order to keep its momentum. April lean hogs are down $1.10 at $77.52, June lean hogs are down $1.45 at $91.62 and July lean hogs are down $1.45 at $93.70. Pork demand has seen better interest over the last couple of days, which could lend traders the additional support they're desiring if Tuesday's afternoon pork cutout values are able to close higher.

The projected lean hog index for March 27 is down $0.32 at $76.25, and the actual index for March 24 is down $0.42 at $76.57. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.58 with a weighted average of $75.45. Pork cutouts total 197.62 with 171.10 loads of pork cuts and 26.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.12, $81.10.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Strength Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle moved higher right from the start of trading with the April contract quickly closing the chart gap that had remained above the market. The strong opening left a chart gap in the June and August contracts below the market. The finally updated Commitment of Traders report and the market being oversold might have been the catalyst to trigger buying. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $0.48 and select up $0.97. The market is poised for further follow-through strength as traders look ahead to the potential for possibly stronger cash. Last week, packers were able to purchase 25% of cattle ahead for deferred delivery even though business seemed to be light. March and April feeder cattle futures have a chart gap under the market left after the strong opening Monday. The March contract closed the upper gap, but now have a lower gap with three days remaining of the contract.

Hogs began the day uneventfully, but quickly found support, propelling the market substantially higher. The record short futures positions of the funds seemingly shocked the market. Futures were not able to hold their highs, trimming the gains into the close, but still holding triple-digit gains. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.74. Cutouts gained $0.17 for the day falling back from the noon report of $4.42 higher. Slaughter remains strong and above a year ago. There will be further positioning ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report which could provide further support to the market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The October and December live cattle contacts still have a chart gap to close above the current level.	1)	June and August live cattle with March and April feeder cattle futures now have chart gaps under the market that will be filled at some point.
2)	Stronger cash is expected this week with packers looking at mixed showlists.	2)	Packers again having cattle purchased ahead may leave them less aggressive in the cash market.
3)	Another day of higher pork cutouts gives the impression demand may have increased, which may provide further support to the market.	3)	Hog futures fell back at least $1.00 from their highs Monday, which could indicate short-covering ran its course. This could limit further upside gains.
4)	Aggressive short-covering usually runs for three days with Tuesday being the third day.	4)	Estimates show the categories of the Hogs & Pigs report to be slightly higher than a year ago. This may limit the amount of short-covering ahead of Thursday.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Send Contracts Soaring

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was tremendous day for the livestock complex as traders approached the marketplace with gusto and drove all three of the livestock markets higher. The feeder cattle complex saw the biggest daily gains, but higher tones were noted throughout all the contracts. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.74 with a weighted average of $75.84 on 5,993 hogs. May corn closed up 5 1/4 at $6.483 and May soybean meal closed up $0.90 at $446.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 194.55 at 32,432.08.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts rallied throughout Monday's market as traders finally looked beyond the concerns of the U.S. banking system and opted to focus on the market's strong fundamentals. It was rather impressive that the spot June contract closed above the market's 100-day moving average and was only short $0.38 to closing steady with the market's 40-day moving average. If traders can keep with this upward momentum, the cash cattle market should have no issue trading higher. April live cattle closed $1.90 higher at $164.9, June live cattle closed $2.28 higher at $158.875 and August live cattle closed $2.18 higher at $158.6. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. New showlists appear to be mixed, lower in Texas, Nebraska and Colorado but somewhat higher in Kansas.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 84,955 head. Of that, 75% (64,049 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 25% (20,906 head) were committed for the deferred delivery. The bulk of last week's trade took place on Wednesday with a little light scattered trade reported on Thursday. Northern dressed deals ranged from $262 to $268, mostly $264 to $265, steady to $1 higher than the prior week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live trade was at $162 to mostly $163, $1 lower than the previous week's weighted averages.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.48 ($280.36) and select up $0.97 ($269.72) with a movement of 70.66 loads (40.68 loads of choice, 8.21 loads of select, 4.56 loads of trim and 17.21 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. With the futures market finally coming back to terms with the market's strong fundamentals, feedlots should have no issue trading cash cattle higher, especially if boxed beef prices are bottoming and finding support.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a barnburner type of day for the feeder cattle complex as all of the contracts closed $2.00 to $3.00 higher. It was quite encouraging to see that the feeder cattle contracts continued to trade higher even though the corn complex jumped $0.05 to $0.09 higher in its nearby contracts. But as traders look at the feeder cattle market, there's one thing that's become undeniably true: supplies are thin now and are only going to become thinner the close we get to the second half of the year. Also, please note the CME Feeder Cattle Index close of $191.24 -- the last time the CME Feeder Cattle Index closed in the $190s was back in 2015. March feeders closed $2.70 higher at $192.35, April feeders closed $2.83 higher at $197.625 and May feeders closed $3.83 higher at $201.375. At the Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at the midsession point, feeder steers were selling $3.00 to $5.00 higher, but 600 weights were selling up to $12.00 and $16.00 higher. Steer calves were selling steady to $4.00 higher. Feeder heifers were trading steady to $1.00 higher and heifer calves were selling $6.00 to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supplies over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 24: up $2.39, $191.24.

LEAN HOGS:

It was invigorating to see the lean hog complex trade higher right beside both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. It is important to note that pork demand has seen more constant support over the last three trading days, which has encouraged traders all the more to push the contracts higher. Pork cutout values closed higher with a hefty $4.01 gain in the bellies helping offset a decrease in the loin (down $1.72), the butt (down $0.92) and the ham (down $0.89). June lean hogs closed $1.65 higher at $93.075, June lean hogs closed $1.65 higher at $93.075 and July lean hogs closed $1.58 higher at $95.15. Pork cutouts totaled 349.03 loads with 301.90 loads of pork cuts and 47.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.17 at $81.22. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 27,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 23: down $0.40, $76.99.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values seeing more support, the cash hog market could see more support on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Contracts Finally Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing tremendous support through Monday's market. As long as the corn complex doesn't trade much higher, the three livestock markets should be able to sustain these gains through closing. If the live cattle market continues to see support from traders and support in higher boxed beef prices, then the cash cattle market could even trade higher too. May corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 206.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is seeing the same support as the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts with the market trading substantially higher. It's refreshing to see the spot June contract trading above its 100-day moving average and to be within a safe trading range of even taking on the market's 40-day moving average. April live cattle are up $1.45 at $164.45, June live cattle are up $1.85 at $158.45 and August live cattle are up $1.75 at $158.17. If the market keeps this upward momentum, the cash cattle market should have no issue to trading higher this week.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 84,955 head. Of that, 75% (64,049 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 25% (20,906 head) were committed for the deferred delivery. The bulk of last week's trade took place on Wednesday with a little light scattered trade reported on Thursday. Northern dressed deals ranged from $262 to $268, mostly $264 to $265, steady to $1 higher than the prior week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live trade was at $162 to mostly $163, $1 lower than the previous week's weighted averages.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.28 ($280.16) and select up $0.16 ($269.36) with a movement of 33 loads (18.66 loads of choice, 3.84 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.07 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex caught wind of the moisture accumulated this past weekend in parts of Montana and Wyoming and has traded aggressively higher ever since. Even the onset of $0.03 to $0.09 higher corn prices isn't affecting the market thus far, as most of its contracts are trading $1.00 to $3.00 higher. It is interesting to note that most of the market's major gains are being seen in the furthest deferred months or the later half of 2023. Supplies of feeder cattle are expected to become incredibly thin in the second half of the year and the futures complex is aware of that reality. April feeders are up $2.72 at $197.52, May feeders are up $3.70 at $201.27 and August feeders are up $2.90 at $217.02.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has run into the new week with momentum and vigor that the complex hasn't seen in a long time. April lean hogs are up $2.25 at $79.45, June lean hogs are up $2.37 at $93.80 and July lean hogs are up $2.22 at $95.80. Corn prices are trending higher, which affects hog feeder's margins, but as long as the hog complex can stay ahead of the corn market's momentum and see support in Monday afternoon's pork cutout values, then the complex should be able to keep with its upward run.

The projected lean hog index for March 24 are down $0.42 at $76.57, and the actual index for March 23 is down $0.40 at $76.99. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.15 with a weighted average of $76.03, ranging from $69.00 to $77.00 on 5,080 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.54. Pork cutouts total 156.85 loads with 140.09 loads of pork cuts and 16.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.42, $85.47.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Caution May Dominate Early Trading

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle closed out the week mixed as it traded earlier in the week. Cattle in the South traded $1.00 lower while cattle in the North were $1.00 to $2.00 higher. There was some give and take by both packers and feedlots. Packers are trying to preserve margins due to boxed beef prices struggling recently. On Friday, boxed beef was lower with choice down $2.90 and select down $0.14. It will be interesting to see how many cattle were again purchased for deferred delivery. Feeder cattle were under pressure due to strong corn prices. March feeder cattle were higher due to it moving toward the last day of trading on Thursday and the anticipation of where the contract would settle. The CFTC has now finally caught up on the Commitment of Traders report with the most recent being released. Funds sold 28,789 live cattle contracts last week, reducing their net-long futures positions to 62,677. Funds were net sellers of 3,361 feeder cattle futures, reducing their net-long positions to 6,536 contracts.

Hogs put in a strong day Friday, which might have been a combination of short-covering into the weekend and higher cutout values. Recently, traders seemed to reduce some of their exposure prior to the weekend. Then take a fresh look at the fundamentals when the week begins. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.13. Cutouts were higher, posting a gain of $0.75. Packers are not expected to be aggressive Monday as they will assess product movement over the weekend. Traders will be looking ahead to the upcoming Hogs & Pigs report to be released Thursday. The Commitment of Traders report is up to date and reported funds as sellers of 19,292 futures contracts for the week ended 3/21/2023 bringing their net-short futures positions to a record 21,625 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Selling may have subsided for the time being in live cattle as mixed cash last week may indicate support may be returning.	1)	Boxed beef continues to show some weakness that may indicate demand is slowing. This may impact the aggressiveness of packers.
2)	April live cattle and March feeder cattle have a chart gap remaining above the market that may be filled. March feeders have the next four days to accomplish the task.	2)	Funds have reduced their net-long positions, possibly reducing their exposure in an uncertain market.
3)	Hogs are oversold and were ready for a price correction. Further short-covering could continue as traders position themselves for the Hogs & Pigs report Thursday.	3)	Funds moving to a record-short futures position may keep the hog market from trending higher anytime soon.
4)	Pork cutouts were higher three days last week, possibly indicating an increase in demand.	4)	Pork demand needs to be more consistent with cutouts trending higher before traders may turn more bullish.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS

Traders seemed to have a change of heart with Friday's market as both the live cattle and lean hog contracts closed mostly higher. However, the $0.09 to $0.12 gain in the corn complex kept feeders from jumping on the bandwagon and enjoying a higher close themselves. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.13 with a weighted average of $76.58 on 6,851 hogs. May corn closed up 11 1/4 at $6.43 and May soybean meal closed up $6.80 at $445.1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 132.28 at 32,237.53.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $0.68, June live cattle up $0.20; March feeder cattle up $0.80, April feeder cattle up $0.15; April lean hogs down $2.70, June lean hogs down $1.90; May corn up $0.09, July corn up $0.05.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's refreshing to be rounding out Friday's market, finally noting a higher close! The live cattle complex has been in a war amongst itself where fundamental traders want to continue to advance the market on strong demand and thin supplies, but technical traders have seemed to win the recent tug-a-war battle while focusing on the concerns about the U.S. economy and its weakened banking system. Cash cattle prices did mildly support the market this past week as prices trended mixed. In the South, live cattle traded for $163, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but in the North, dressed cattle traded for $264 to $265 which is steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. April live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $163., June live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $156.6 and August live cattle closed $0.73 higher at $156.425.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 16,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 626,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 31,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.90 ($279.88) and select down $0.14 ($268.75) with a movement of 108.09 loads (73.51 loads of choice, 10.56 loads of select, 6.70 loads of trim and 17.32 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $280.98 (down $3.49 from last week) and select cuts averaged $270.59 (down $2.41 from last week) with a total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaling 612 loads.

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 higher. After trading mixed this past week, feedlots could see the cash cattle market trade higher next week if they're willing to be patient and wait to trade cattle until Thursday or Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts would have liked to close higher, but with the corn complex gaining momentum throughout the day, that simply wasn't an option. However, with the live cattle complex closing higher at Friday's end, Monday may be more prosperous for the feeder cattle complex so long as the corn market doesn't again any more steam. March feeders closed $0.63 higher at $189.65, April feeders closed $0.20 lower at $194.8 and May feeders closed $1.05 lower at $197.55. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week, feeder and stocker steers under 800 pounds traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower; but feeder steers over 800 pounds traded steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Steer calves traded steady to $3.00 lower and heifer calves traded steady to $3.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 22: up $1.07, $188.85.

LEAN HOGS:

At last, a substantially higher close for the lean hog complex. Maybe it's the fact that pork cutout values are closing with more support, or maybe it's the fact that Thursday's export report was strong, but whatever the case may be, a higher close and stronger end to the week is great. Pork cutout values were able to close higher as the ham saw a $4.36 increase from Thursday's close, along with $1.87 gain in the butt cuts and $1.70 gain in the loin. June lean hogs closed $2.05 higher at $91.425, June lean hogs closed $2.05 higher at $91.425 and July lean hogs closed $2.20 higher at $93.575. Pork cutouts totaled 247.02 loads with 212.56 loads of pork cuts and 34.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.75 at $81.05. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 22: down $0.44, $77.39.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head, 10,000 head more than a week ago and 26,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 63,000 head. Thursday's slaughter was revised to 490,000 head.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers are careful about waiting the week out to see what demand looks like before they support the cash hog market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and lean hog markets are trading higher into Friday's noon hour while the feeder cattle complex is still trading lower due to the onset of higher corn prices. No more cash cattle trade has developed and it's looking like the bulk of the week's business is done with. May corn is up 8 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 88.55 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's invigorating to see the live cattle contracts trading higher after enduring yet another bearish week. June live cattle are up $0.95 at $156.77, August live cattle are up $0.85 at $156.60 and October live cattle are up $0.80 at $160.85. The spot June contract is still trading below the market's 100-day moving average, but if the market can keep its momentum through closing, taking out that threshold could be attainable on Monday. No more cash cattle trade has developed as packers are seeming to have fulfilled their needs for the week. Some more clean-up trade could develop ahead of the weekend, but it will only likely be cleanup in its nature. Throughout the week, Northern dressed deals have been marked at mostly $264 to $265, steady to $1 higher than last week's weighted averages. Southern live sales were listed at mostly $163, $1 lower than last week's weighted averages.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.94 ($280.84) and select up $1.18 ($270.07) with a movement of 76 loads (60.08 loads of choice, 6.03 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.67 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With corn prices trending $0.08 to $0.09 higher, the feeder cattle contracts have turned red and are trending lower into Friday's noon hour. Even though the live cattle contracts are trading higher, the live cattle market's support isn't enough to offset the pressure of the rallying corn complex. April feeders are down $0.47 at $194.52, May feeders are down $1.17 at $197.42 and August feeders are down $0.52 at $214.10.

LEAN HOGS:

After trading lower for the last week, the lean hog complex has finally found some support in Friday's market. April lean hogs are up $1.70 at $77.45, June lean hogs are up $2.20 at $91.57 and July lean hogs are up $2.17 at $93.55. It's hard to put a rhyme or reason behind why the market has suddenly come into support, but it has! Part of the market's support could be stemming from Thursday's strong export report and the stronger pork cutout close.

The projected lean hog index for March 23 is down $0.40 at $76.99 and the actual index for March 22 is down $0.44 at $77.39. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.32 with a weighted averaged $76.18, ranging from $71.00 to $77.50 on 4,535 head and five-day rolling average of $76.64. Pork cutouts total 135.17 loads with 122.46 loads of pork cuts and 12.71 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.26 $81.56.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Trader Positioning Likely Ahead of Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There had been some hope cattle would shrug off the mixed cash trade that had developed on Wednesday, but such was not the case. Although cash trading activity was rather light again Thursday, it still remained mixed with prices averaging $1.00 lower in the South and $1.00 higher in the North. Anything else that trades the rest of the week will likely follow the same pattern. Boxed beef continues to run mixed with choice up $1.48 and select down $0.93. With beef packer margins below last year and the three-year average. Packers will attempt to improve those margins by trying to purchase cattle at reduced prices. Weekly export sales were 5% better than last week at 18,600 MT, but still ran lower than desired to provide strong support under the market. Total beef in inventory for the month of February was 500.2 million pounds, down 6% from a year earlier.

Hog futures were likely the recipients of some short-covering after new lows again Thursday. With the market being oversold, traders might decide to buy back some of their sold positions ahead of the weekend. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report is also on the horizon for next week, which may result in some positioning ahead of it. Cutouts showed some strength yesterday with a gain of $0.44, making it the second day this week cutouts were higher. Slaughter continues to remain strong as market-ready hogs continue to be available. Weekly exports sales were good at 38,000 MT and 7% above the previous week. China was not a top buyer. Cash was lower on the National Direct Afternoon report with a decline of $0.92. The February Cold Storage report was about as expected with total pork in inventory at 521.2 million pounds, up 9% from a year ago. Bellies totaled 71.00 million pounds, up 42% from a year earlier. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 63,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle slaughter remains steady despite tighter cattle numbers. Demand remains good and needs to be met.	1)	With mixed cash trade this week, the market may retain a discount to cash as next week could show similar trade if not slightly weaker.
2)	Cattle futures are at a discount to cash, which should provide some support under the market.	2)	Boxed beef prices have been mixed at best and could see further weakness today and next week.
3)	Hog futures finally showed some stability after new lows were made. Further short-covering may take place ahead of the weekend.	3)	New lows again Thursday do not provide any indication of support developing under the hog market.
4)	The market is extremely oversold with the Hogs & Pigs report on the calendar for next Thursday. This could trigger some positioning ahead of the report.	4)	Cutouts need to show stronger gains than they have been this week. The gains have not been able to make up for the losses.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cautious Tones Continue to Hobble the Markets

GENERAL COMMENTS

It was a lackluster day for the livestock complex as the futures complex didn't seem to care that the market received supportive export news and opted to close lower regardless. The feeder cattle contracts were the only livestock market to see mild support as corn prices closed lower and which allowed feeders to rally mildly. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.92 with a weighted average of $76.71 on 7,250 hogs. May corn closed down 1 3/4 at $6.318 and May soybean meal closed down $13.30 at $438.3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 75.14 at 32,105.25.

Thursday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat in freezers was down 3% from last month but up 2% from a year ago. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 6% from the previous month and down 6% from a year ago. Frozen pork supplies were up slightly from last month, but up 9% from a year ago. Stocks of pork bellies were up 1% from a month ago and up 42% from a year ago.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex would have liked to close higher, but the market traded steady to somewhat lower throughout Thursday's market as traders still weren't confident in advancing the market amid a mixed cash cattle complex and outside uncertainty. A few more cash cattle bids developed throughout the day: $164 in Iowa, $265 in Nebraska and $264 dressed in Iowa, but no more trade developed. Feedlots are wishing that they would have waited until later in the week to trade cattle as they could have potentially kept the market steady, if not advance all the prices mildly. Throughout the week, thus far Southern live cattle have traded for $163 which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $264 to $265 which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some more trade should develop ahead of the weekend. April live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $162.15, June live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $155.8 and August live cattle closed $0.28 lower at $155.7. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending March 11 steers averaged 903 pounds, which is 4 pounds heavier than a week ago and 14 pounds heavier than a year ago. Heifers averaged 830 pounds, which was one pound heavier than the week before and 19 pounds heavier than the same week a year ago.

Beef net sales of 18,600 mt for 2023 were up 5% from the previous week and 59% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (10,800 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and China (1,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.48 ($282.78) and select down $0.93 ($268.89) with a movement of 130.55 loads (81.77 loads of choice, 21.63 loads of select, 11.66 loads of trim and 15.49 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. There's still a chance that some trade develops ahead of Friday's end, but prices will likely remain steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to close mostly higher, which was better than both the live cattle and lean hog markets. Traders would have liked to see better support from the live cattle market, but feeders kept their eyes on the corn market's lower tone and powered through Thursday's end. March feeders closed $0.78 higher at $189.025, April feeders closed $0.63 higher at $195. and May feeders closed $0.18 lower at $198.6. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, at their midsession report and when compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers over 500 pounds sold uneven, trading anywhere from $2.00 lower to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 84%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 22: up $0.09, $187.78.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had another challenging day where the most of its contracts closed lower. Pork cutout values managed to close higher, with a nice jump in picnic prices (up $3.44) and bellies even saw some support as they gained $2.70. The ham continues to be an issue as it closed lower again Thursday -- only mildly so, but lower, nonetheless. Regardless of the pork cutout values slightly higher close and the support export report earlier Thursday morning, the lean hog complex continues to flounder as its market looks for long term support and direction. Next Thursday March 30 the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be shared, which may disclose some hope, but with hog supplies as flush as they seem, it could also unveil more hogs than originally expected. June lean hogs closed $0.03 higher at $89.375, June lean hogs closed $0.03 higher at $89.37 and July lean hogs closed $0.03 lower at $91.375. Pork Cutouts totaled 254.27 loads with 233.98 loads of pork cuts and 20.29 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.44 at $80.3. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 21: down $0.84, $77.83.

Pork net sales of 38,000 mt for 2023 were up 7% from the previous week and 8% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (18,400 mt), Canada (4,800 mt) and Japan (4,400 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's almost a golden rule that packers rarely show interest in the cash hog market on Fridays when supplies are this flush.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Timid and Skeptical Tones Dominate Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mostly trending lower, although traders would likely push the cattle contracts higher if given a supportive reason to do so. The lean hog complex cannot muster up any support, and its market continues to bleed lower. May corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $11.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 344.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex would like to rally after receiving a supportive export report Thursday morning, but instead the market is trading mostly lower, keeping in line with the earlier part of the week's trend. April live cattle are down $0.17 at $162.12, June live cattle are down $0.07 at $155.82 and August live cattle are down $0.15 at $155.87. The cash cattle market has not seen any more trade develop as packers are thankful to have had cattle bought early in the week when the market's morale was even lower, and feedlots are wishing that they would have been more patient. On Wednesday, Southern live cattle traded for $163, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $264 to $265, which is steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. More trade will need to develop ahead of the week's end.

Beef net sales of 18,600 mt for 2023 were up 5% from the previous week and 59% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (10,800 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and China (1,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.95 ($283.25) and select down $0.32 ($269.50) with a movement of 71 loads (53.02 loads of choice, 8.06 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.08 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market lending no support, the feeder cattle contracts are trying to look at the corn market's $0.03 to $0.04 regression and continue to trade higher, but only some of the nearby contracts are pulling that off. April feeders are up $0.32 at $194.70, May feeders are down $0.42 at $198.35 and August feeders are down $0.05 at $214.52. I still find the price spread between May and August to be incredible -- with a $16.17 difference. The market is braced for the clear reality that supplies are likely going to be significantly thinner in the second half of the year for feeder cattle.

LEAN HOGS:

Even with a supportive export report, the lean hog complex continues to trend lower. With all support levels having been broken through, the real question in Thursday's extremely pressured lean hog market is: where is the bottom? Unfortunately, until pork demand increases here domestically, and packers feel somewhat pressured when looking for upcoming supplies, the market will likely remain depressed. The last USDA WASDE report was clear that demand should increase in the third quarter and supplies should also tighten -- I just hope the market finds some support before then. April lean hogs are up $0.12 at $76.20, June lean hogs are down $0.32 at $89.02 and July lean hogs are down $0.10 at $91.30.

Pork net sales of 38,000 mt for 2023 were up 7% from the previous week and 8% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (18,400 mt), Canada (4,800 mt) and Japan (4,400 mt).

The projected lean hog index for March 22 is down $0.44 at $77.39, and the actual index for March 21 is down $0.84 at $77.83. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.79 with a weighted average of $76.50, ranging from $72.00 to $77.50 on 5,615 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.99. Pork cutouts total 113.20 loads with 104.41 loads of pork cuts and 8.79 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.83, $80.69.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Support Remains Elusive

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded Thursday rather than holding out to the end of the week. Volume was light but it may have been sufficient to set the stage for the rest of the week. Trade in the South was $1.00 lower than last week while dressed trade in the North was steady to $1.00 higher. Live cattle futures made a new low again Wednesday, but recovered significantly as futures carry a discount to cash. Boxed beef continues to struggle as choice gained $1.38 while select declined $1.73. Feeder cattle showed a little more pressure than live cattle with traders uncertain of buyer interest at auctions with the recent weakness of live cattle.

Hogs fell again as pork cutouts cannot find a bottom. Slaughter remains steady, keeping plenty of pork on the market. Recently, cutouts have been decreasing nearly each day with lower prices not able to stimulate greater demand. Cutouts declined $1.66 Wednesday. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.38. The February Cold Storage report will be released Thursday after the close, which will show pork in storage, providing an indication of demand during the month. Weekly export sales Thursday morning will need to show strong numbers as traders search for any supportive news. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 63,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	April live cattle and March feeder cattle futures have a chart gap remining above the current market. Gaps generally are filled.	1)	The lower lows and lower highs in cattle futures Wednesday did not bode well for the market technically.
2)	Northern dressed trade $1.00 higher should provide some support under the market.	2)	Boxed beef continues to struggle, which may indicate demand is faltering a bit as outside fundamental factors impact consumers.
3)	Hog futures are very oversold, which could trigger some short-covering as we head toward the weekend.	3)	New lows in hogs again Wednesday kept traders aggressively selling the market as support is lacking.
4)	Low pork prices should stimulate demand as pork is a very good value compared to beef.	4)	Hog numbers are not showing any signs of tightening as had been expected. Packers continue to purchase hogs without difficulty.