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Friday, May 31, 2019

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Market Losses Continue Friday

GENERAL COMMENTS: Limited movement early Friday left the door open for increased market volatility late in the day. Aggressive selling developed in all livestock markets. Feeder cattle futures led the market tumble with the August contract down $5.10 per cwt as traders took advantage of expanded trading limits. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Jun LC off $2.70; Aug LC off $4.88; Aug FC off $10.10; Sep FC off $9.80; Jun LH off $4.70; Jul LH off $2.03. Cash cattle activity remains quiet Friday afternoon, as it appears both sides are done for the week following moderate trade Wednesday and Thursday. A few bids remain at $115 live and $186 dressed, but given the late-day freefall in futures trade, these are not likely available at this point. Asking prices are at $116 and higher live and $188 dressed, but both sides appear willing to wait until early June before additional activity develops. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.88 lower ($70-$78, weighted average $76.70) on 11,612 head sold. Corn futures were lower in active trade with July falling 9 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 354 points lower with the NASDAQ down 114 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures fell by triple digits Friday. ($1.10 to $1.97 lower). Mixed trade early in the session and a strong reversal lower in corn prices Friday were not enough to stimulate to buyer support and keep prices stable. The August contract led the complex lower, down $1.97 per cwt, setting a new contract low and testing long-term support of $102.40 set in May 2018. This selling pressure is much more complex than seasonal market pressure or end-of-the-month positioning. The sharp gains in grain futures over the last couple of weeks have led to increased concern about beef production costs as well as supply availability. The feeder cattle market has been affected most, but live cattle futures have followed feeder cattle lower. Even though less beef is expected to be seen due to higher costs of production, the grain market moves seem to be creating long-term shifts in the entire market structure. Beef cut-outs: lower, down $1.18 (select, $207.69) to down $0.37 (choice, $223.21) with moderate demand and offerings, 112 loads (55 loads of choice cuts, 31 loads of select cuts, 9 loads of trimmings, 16 loads of coarse grinds).
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Early week, trade is not expected with showlist distribution and inventory-taking taking place Monday. The sharp losses in futures trade and lack of beef support is creating additional concerns of further cash market pressure in early June.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures saw sharp losses of $1.77 to $5.10 as traders liquidated positions Friday. Though traders tried to cover short positions and stabilize prices early in the day, the August futures led the complex lower, falling $5.10 per cwt in late-day trade. Bearishness in the feeder cattle market continues to build even though the market appears to be oversold. Concerns about additional corn market gains on uncertain supplies through the end of the year have added to the volatility and pushed feeder cattle futures lower. Spot futures have fallen $9 per cwt in the last three sessions and over $27 per cwt since mid-April. The bearishness in the market is likely to continue during early June. CME cash feeder index for 5/30 is $132.47, down $2.53.
LEAN HOGS: Despite an attempt to bring buyers back to the market early in the day, sharp end-of-the-month losses pushed lean hog futures $0.87 to $2.27 lower. Active selling moved into the lean hog complex late Friday, leading to triple-digit losses in all but late-year contracts. Most nearby contracts held losses at or near $2 per cwt. The July contract closed at $85.92 per cwt, but remains slightly above support levels set earlier in the week. The ability to keep prices at or above these levels in early June is expected to help bring additional buyer interest back into the market. Although demand for pork is expected to increase through the end of the year, trade issues with China remain an uncertainty. Pork cutouts firmed Friday following mixed moves in primal cuts. Pork cutout values gained $0.83 per cwt, moving to $82.68 per cwt on 258 loads. CME cash lean index for 5/29 is $82.22, down $0.34. DTN Projected lean index for 5/30 is $81.92, down $0.30.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 lower. Continued pressure is expected to filter into early June with packers still trying to limit spending given the choppy moves in pork values over the last couple of weeks. Most bids are expected $1 per cwt lower Monday. Monday's slaughter is expected at 464,000 head.


#completeherdhealth

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Trickle Higher

General Comments
Narrow moves in live cattle trade is limiting volume through the entire complex. This may add increased uncertainty through the market during early June. Hog futures remain focused on increasingly bearish market direction. Corn futures are lower in moderate trade. July corn futures are 4 1/4 cents lower. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 249 points lower with NASDAQ down 82 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Light gains have slowly developed in live cattle trade late Friday as traders try to adjust following the tumble lower over the past couple of days. August futures are barely holding above long term support levels as prices have tested contract lows through the morning. Limited activity is seen through the complex, which is likely to keep prices in a narrowly mixed range through the end of the session. Cash cattle is quiet following moderate activity over the last couple of days. Most trade needed for the week is done, although there could be a few clean up deals before the end of the day, but prices are expected to have been set. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.66 lower (select) and up $0.24 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 89 total loads reported (40 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 3 loads of trimmings, 30 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Strong follow-through losses have quickly developed through feeder cattle trade despite the pullback in corn markets. The strong surge higher in grain prices through the week is driven by uncertainty and confusion on the amount of corn available through the end of the year. This may spark some additional underlying weakness through all cattle trade, which is driven by feeder cattle trade.
LEAN HOGS:
Moderate to firm pressure continues to develop through lean hog trade Friday morning with increased concerns that additional pressure may develop through early June. June futures continue to lead markets lower, but the inability to draw any late month support to the complex may add increased volatility to the entire market. Strong export sales to China were not enough to bring buying interest back to the complex. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.07 at $75.33 per cwt with the range from $71.00 to $77.00 on 3,116 head reported sold. Cash prices unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values bounced higher Friday due to mixed primal trade. Pork cutouts added $1.21 per cwt at $83.06 per cwt with 147 loads traded. Lean hog index for 5/28 is $82.56, down 0.75, with a projected two-day index at $82.22, down 0.34.

#completeherdhealth



Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - End of Week and Month Shifts Likely

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
Prices appear to be set in cash cattle trade following trade Wednesday and Thursday. This is expected to spark limited additional end-of-the-week movement with some cleanup activity possible, but most feeders are likely to hold off until next week given the bearish moves in futures trade at the end of the week. Live trade was at $115 in the South and $116 in the North, which is generally steady with last week's levels, while dressed trade developed late Thursday at $186 to $187 per cwt, $1.50 to $2.50 per cwt lower than last week. Futures trade remains under pressure following limit losses of $4.50 per cwt in feeder cattle trade, sparking additional bearishness in the entire cattle complex. A combination of follow-through selling pressure and an attempt to cover short positions at the end of the week and month is likely to keep markets moving in a potentially mixed and volatile range.
Mixed trade at the end of the week continues as traders focus on wide market swings through the week and underlying pressure in neighboring cattle trade. Traders are watching for potential demand for pork from China and the ongoing trade war, and will be looking closely at the holiday-delayed release of the weekly Export Sales report. There is hope of additional strong sales of pork to China, but given the cold shoulder between the two countries, it is becoming expected less and less each week. This does not negate the fact that global demand for pork continues to grow, leaving a need to fill the gap with U.S. product in some fashion. Cash trade is called steady to $3 lower Friday morning with most bids $1 lower. Expected slaughter Friday is at 470,000 head. Saturday runs are expected near 250,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Cattle futures remain oversold at the end of May, creating the potential for active noncommercial buyer interest to reenter the market in the upcoming weeks.
1)
Active gains in grain trade have quickly put cattle futures into panic selling mode with feeder cattle futures closing limit lower with $4.50 per cwt lower. The sharp gains in corn markets is causing uncertainty of further production costs and feed availability long term.
2)Beef demand continues to remain strong, allowing for expectations of active domestic and export movement in the summer months.2)Live cattle futures quickly followed feeder cattle lower Thursday with $2.80 per cwt losses seen in August contracts. August futures settled at $105.05 per cwt, which is testing contract lows set in May last year. A move below these support levels would likely spark additional liquidation at the end of the month.
3)Traders look for the potential of moderate-to-strong pork sales to China in the weekly Export Sales report. Sales last week would indicate a two-week stretch of product movement, causing expectations that further sales will steadily develop in the summer months.3)
End-of-month positioning is expected to develop Friday, allowing further weakness to develop in lean hog trade.
4)Underlying short-term support in July futures remains at $85 per cwt, allowing traders to rebuild on these market lows through the end of May. If this price is able to hold, firm underlying buyer interest is likely to redevelop in the coming days and weeks.4)
Sharp double-digit losses in belly primal cuts Thursday caused the pork cutout value to move sharply lower. A lack of support in bellies is causing concern that demand for traditional summer pork products is not growing at the end of May.



#completeherdhealth

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Feeder Cattle Futures Tumble to Limit Losses

GENERAL COMMENTS: Sharp losses swept through cattle trade Thursday with feeder cattle futures falling limit lower in late-day trade. The continued weakness in feeder cattle trade and uncertainty about corn supplies sparked additional pressure in live cattle futures. Hog futures closed mixed Thursday after regaining limited support from morning losses. Light-to-moderate trade has developed through the South at $115 per cwt. This is steady with Wednesday's price levels and generally steady with last week. A few deals were seen in the North on a live basis with prices $116 per cwt also steady. Bids are seen at $185 to $186 dressed through the North, although limited activity is seen at this point. There is talk about a few deals for delayed delivery developing at $186 per cwt through late afternoon. Asking prices remain firm at $117 dressed and $188 live despite the sharp futures losses. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was unreported at this time due to delays. Corn futures surged higher in active trade with July up 17 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 43 points higher with the NASDAQ up 20 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Cattle futures tumbled lower in late-day trade, closing $2.20 to $2.80 lower. Despite moderate gains in the complex early Thursday, traders backed away through the last half of the session. Feeder cattle quickly turned sharply lower based on continued buying in grain trade, which pushed corn and soybean prices 17 cents per bushel higher. This shift lower quickly sparked active selling in all live cattle trade, with the August futures contract limit down at one point Thursday afternoon. Although markets were able to move back from limit losses at closing bell, concerns remain about additional losses through the next couple of week. The August futures tested contract lows Thursday afternoon, with a move below that level in upcoming sessions likely to lead to active liquidation and further market losses. The higher corn and feed prices are causing much more concern than just higher feed prices, which traditionally support deferred futures trade. Current planting delays and growing conditions are causing uncertainty about grain price projections as well as short- and long-term feed supplies. Beef cut-outs: mixed, down $1.12 (select, $208.87) to up $0.05 (choice, $223.58) with good demand and moderate offerings, 154 loads (77 loads of choice cuts, 25 loads of select cuts, 16 loads of trimmings, 35 loads of coarse grinds).
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Additional trade seen Thursday at $115 in the South and $116 live in the North further establishes the tone of steady cash prices. Trade in the South may be wrapped up for the week, but additional business may develop in the North. It is uncertain if the freefalling futures trade will spark panic cash selling at the end of the week, allowing for lower price levels Friday.
FEEDER CATTLE: Further weakness continued in feeder cattle trade Thursday following active gains in grain trade. Futures closed $3.07 to $4.50 lower. Nearby feeder cattle futures tumbled to limit losses as aggressive liquidation moved through the complex following double-digit gains in grain futures. The feeder cattle complex was already weakened over the last six weeks by increased placement levels over the past two months sparking additional supply concerns. But planting delays that have caused corn and soybean prices to surge higher through the end of May have left the complex with little to no stability. This is causing traders to liquidate positions due to uncertainty of feed costs and the impact this will have on beef values through the next several months. CME cash feeder index for 5/29 is $135.00, down $1.65.
LEAN HOGS: Aggressive pressure quickly moved into the lean hog complex on outside market concerns. Futures closed mixed, $1.52 lower to $0.20 higher. The strong support seen Wednesday quickly evaporated as traders moved back into the complex and gains swept through the grain trade. The concern about higher feed prices is just another item added to the list of concerns in the hog complex. The lightly traded June contract maintained triple-digit losses, while the rest of the complex steadily regained limited support through the end of the session. Following extremely wide price shifts over the last two weeks, traders seem to be focusing on squaring positions at the end of the month, while still eyeing downside market potential through early June on global market concerns. Pork cutouts are unreported at this time due to reporting delays. CME cash lean index for 5/28 is $82.56, down $0.75. DTN Projected lean index for 5/29 is $82.22, down $0.34.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 lower. Additional pressure is expected through the cash hog market Friday following lighter procurement runs earlier in the week due to mechanical issues. This will further limit the need to secure additional hogs through the end of the week. Friday's slaughter is expected at 470,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 250,000 head.

#completeherdhealth

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Livestock Futures Redevelop Market Pressure

General Comments
Sharp losses once again quickly developed across feeder cattle and lean hog trade with increased selling pressure following the renewed surge in grain trade. Corn futures are higher in moderate trade. July corn futures are 12 1/4 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 2 points higher with NASDAQ up 11 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have given back early gains following a strong shift lower in feeder cattle trade once again. Lightly traded June contracts are still holding a 5 cent gain, although the rest of the complex is trading consistently lower with losses of 27 to 50 cents per cwt at midday. The underlying pressure is driven by sharply higher corn market prices with traders not only concerned about the amount of corn that is not yet, or may not get planted. But late planting traditionally lowers yield on acres that do get planted. This will dramatically affect production costs of beef through the next year. Cash cattle trade has not yet been seen Thursday morning, although scattered bids are available in most areas. Live trade in the South on Wednesday developed at $115 per cwt. This is generally steady with last week and could set the tone for the market, despite the underlying pressure in futures trade. Bids are seen at $115 to $116 live and $185 to $186 dressed. Asking prices are holding firm at $117 to $118 live and $188 and higher dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.58 lower (select) and down $0.13 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 89 total loads reported (40 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 3 loads of trimmings, 30 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle markets have responded to the aggressive double-digit gains in corn prices Thursday morning by posting sharp triple digit losses in all contracts. August and September contracts are most affected due to the immediate impact that rising feed costs have on spot-month futures. Each of these contracts are posting $2 per cwt losses as increased underlying pressure is seen across the complex. The expectation that additional pressure will develop is not only going to affect futures trade, but will be carried through cash feeder cattle prices through the end of the month and well into June. This aggressive pressure continues to set contract lows in all contracts.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures remain lower at midday. Although nearby contracts have pulled back from sharp initial losses reaching $2 per cwt, the focus on market unrest exists as the one day bounce in prices seen Wednesday is becoming a distant memory. Traders continue to remain extremely concerned about the trade relationship with China, which initially sparked the spring market rally due to expectations that trade would quickly develop. But the further the process moves along, the harder it is to see a positive short-term resolution as traders continue to back away from April highs and struggle with the potential that domestic supply may continue to be contained by current pork demand. The volatility of pork cutouts over the last few days is adding even more uncertainty to the complex at a time when seasonal support is typically developing in products like ribs and bacon. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.07 at $75.33 per cwt with the range from $71.00 to $77.00 on 3,116 head reported sold. Cash prices unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values posted sharp losses following a $17.09 loss in belly cuts. Pork cutouts fell $2.39 per cwt at $82.09 per cwt with 171 loads traded. Lean hog index for 5/28 is $82.56, down 0.75, with a projected two-day index at $82.22, down 0.34.

#completeherdhealth

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Expected Mixed on Further Grain Moves

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Light cash cattle trade developed in the South Wednesday afternoon at $115 per cwt. This is generally steady with last week's weighted average, and likely enough business in these areas to set the tone for the rest of the week without a major disruption in futures trade. Business in the North is undeveloped, but may soon follow with bids expected to redevelop at $115 or higher live and $185 dressed. Asking prices on cattle left on showlists remain at $117 to $118 live and $188 and higher dressed. It is uncertain if active trade will develop Thursday, or if the back and forth will continue until sometime Friday as typically seen in the North. Futures trade is expected mixed with traders still concerned about the lack of pressure early in the week, especially in feeder cattle. Traders will closely follow the direction of the corn and soybean market due to wet weather and lack of planting progress in many areas of the country. This is expected to have a dramatic impact not only on feed prices, but on the overall availability of feed at the end of the year.

Firm follow-through support is expected to redevelop across lean hog futures trade with the previous market tumble still leaving the complex ripe for additional corrections on the upside of the market. This could add even more uncertainty to the complex as traders focus on more uncertainty with China while overall pork demand the rest of the year is expected to remain strong. Due to the holiday Monday, export sales reports will be delayed until Friday, which is when we will know if additional pork sales have developed in China. Traders are also starting to focus on increased potential exports to other countries who may be sending pork to China. With the China trade war still in full swing, the role of U.S. pork may be to backfill into other countries in order to replace product they export to China. Cash trade is called steady to $2 lower Thursday morning with most bids $1 lower. Expected slaughter Thursday is at 475,000 head. Saturday runs are expected near 223,000 head.


BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)
Active buyer interest moving into live cattle midweek is creating buyer support. This is building on the underlying support levels which have been defended this week.
1)
Feeder cattle futures remain under pressure with continued concern surrounding the ability to supply enough corn supplies due to the late and delayed planting.
2) Corn prices broke away from the aggressive double-digit rallies Wednesday, which sparked increased late-day interest in feeder cattle trade. Any reprieve from the skyrocketing grain market shifts is expected to support cattle trade. 2) Lack of cash market support in the last week of May is causing some additional long-term concerns that current cattle and beef supplies may overwhelm summer demand expectations, limiting the ability to sustain recent beef values.
3) Strong triple-digit gains quickly and aggressively flooded back into lean hog trade midweek. This could indicate a change in market direction as traders focus on upcoming seasonal demand and tighter live hog supplies. 3)
Active pressure in pork cutout values focused on a double-digit loss in rib and belly cuts. With summer demand building, pressure in these seasonal cuts is creating increased concern about overall demand growth.
4) Given the wide trading range the last several weeks, technical market shifts could mean prices will go sharply higher in early June. This could allow for a wide market swing in the upcoming days and weeks as buyers step back into the complex. 4)
Despite the midweek rally in hog futures, the entire complex still remains under pressure as traders try to defend short-term support levels. Without a strong end-of-the-month market close, trade pressure may quickly develop as prices continue to give back gains that developed during March.


#completeherdhealth

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Active Gains Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS: Early pressure Wednesday seemed to rekindle active liquidation through the first couple of hours of trade. Buyers quickly moved into the oversold market, sparking active support in cattle and hog futures. Nearby lean hog futures surged to triple-digit gains, quickly bouncing off of short-term lows, creating longer-term hope of follow-through support at the end of the week. Corn futures slipped lower in light trade. July futures fell 1 1/2 cent per bushel. Dow Jones Index is 221 points lower with NASDAQ down 60 points. Limited cash cattle trade developed Wednesday afternoon at $115 per cwt in Texas and Kansas. Although additional trade is expected, this may set a steady tone for the week. Bids in the North are $116 live and $185 dressed, which may limit overall activity until later in the week. Asking prices remain at $117 to $118 live and $188 and higher dressed. National Daily Direct afternoon hog report is $0.51 lower with a weighted average of $76.35 per cwt. Full range of $71.00 to $78.00 per cwt on 10,231 head sold.
LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures turned higher late Wednesday ($0.07 to $0.80 higher). Light-to-moderate support developed Wednesday afternoon following a market reversal in feeder cattle futures and continued support based on morning cutout gains. June futures led the complex higher with an 80-cent rally with traders slowly backing away from market pressure. The inability for corn markets to continue the sharp market rally of the last two weeks brought the focus back to underlying seasonal demand for beef, and less emphasis on increasing production costs. August through December contracts posted limited gains with traders trying to rebuild market stability through the end of the week while remaining optimistic about long-term buyer support trickling into the complex through the month of June. Beef cut-outs: mixed, $0.46 lower (select, $209.99) and up $0.24 (choice, $223.53) with good demand and light to moderate offerings, 143 loads (71 loads of choice cuts, 45 loads of select cuts, 9 loads of trimmings, 18 loads of coarse grinds).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Light trade developed in the South Wednesday at $115 per cwt. The ability to bring deals to the table early in a post-holiday week may stimulate additional market direction Thursday. At this point, packers and feeders appear focused on steady money heading into month end. Trade may not finish, especially in the North, until sometime Friday.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures broke away from active liquidation (0.25 lower to $0.50 higher) following a lower close in corn futures. Narrow losses in corn futures quickly pulled nearby feeder cattle futures away from setting new contract lows Wednesday. Nearby futures have posted narrow gains, steady to 50 cents higher, as traders have been encouraged by the pullback from early morning gains in corn prices. Although extremely strong support remains in grain markets surrounding planting concerns, the temporary reprieve seems to be sparking some underlying support through nearby feeder cattle. All feeder cattle futures remain stuck in a narrow trading range, eliminating any significant premium in the complex. This is based on aggressive placement and supply numbers expected through the next several months as well as growing concern surrounding feed prices. CME cash feeder index for 5/27 is $136.65, up 0.10.
LEAN HOGS: Strong buyer support moved into hog trade late Wednesday with triple-digit gains developing ($0.35 to $2.10 higher). Strong buyer support quickly moved into the oversold lean hog complex with triple-digit gains in all nearby contracts as previous selling lost momentum. After traders posted a $8 per cwt market retraction over the last two weeks, price levels rebounded at midday following June contracts holding support at $84 per cwt. Limited fundamental developments are seen through the complex, allowing active gains to swiftly move through the contracts. This could help redevelop additional technical support, although uncertainty remains surrounding any development with a China trade deal and growing demand surrounding African swine fever. Pork cutouts posted sharp losses following aggressive double-digit losses in rib and belly cuts. Pork cutout values fell $1.48 per cwt, moving to $84.48 per cwt on 356 loads. CME cash lean index for 5/24 is $83.31, down 0.71. DTN Projected lean index for 5/28 is $82.56, down 0.75.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 lower. Continued pressure is expected through the cash hog market with traders focusing on the recent market slide and attemps by packers to improve margins. Most bids are expected to be steady to 50 cents lower. Thursday's slaughter is expected at 475,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 231,000 head.

#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hog Prices Rebound Midmorning

General Comments
Mixed trade continues in live cattle futures with limited short-term buyer support based on firming beef values. Traders remain concerned about growing production costs that are adversely affecting feeder cattle futures. Corn futures are higher in moderate trade with July up 4 cents. Stock markets are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 306 points lower with the NASDAQ down 71 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures are contained within a mixed trading range with prices hovering from 45 cents lower to 35 cents higher in limited overall direction. The focus on recent beef value support and the potential for stability in cash cattle trade is helping to rekindle buyer interest through the front-month June futures. Meanwhile, prices through late 2019 have posted light-to-moderate losses on continued concerns of supply growth, while building long-term export demand still raises questions. Limited movement is expected through the end of the session with very little additional long-term direction developing following the choppy range-bound market shifts during the holiday week. Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped Wednesday morning, although a few bids are trickling in at $116 per cwt live and $185 per cwt dressed. Asking prices remain at $117 to $118 live and $188 and higher dressed, but have become much more available Wednesday morning. It is uncertain if cash trade will develop in the South yet Wednesday. But, given the trend over the last several weeks, it appears that both sides are attempting to reach a deal on a few cattle, at least before moving into the last half of the week. Boxed beef cut-outs at midday are higher, up $0.49 (select) to up $0.58 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 72 total loads reported (37 loads of choice cuts, 21 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 10 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Triple-digit losses are holding through feeder cattle trade with traders focusing on the inability to maintain early morning support. With corn futures trading mixed Wednesday morning, there seems to be limited buyer interest as traders try to account for feed market uncertainty due to delayed planting and concerns of long-term corn and soybean production that will affect feeder cattle markets and production costs for months and years to come. The August futures contract is leading the complex lower, down $1.22 per cwt.
LEAN HOGS:
Light-to-moderate buyer support has moved back into lean hog trade Wednesday morning following aggressive pressure over the last week. Nearby contracts have tumbled over $8 per cwt in the last couple of weeks. Traders are focusing on the potential to establish short-term support at $84 per cwt in the June futures contract, while the July contract is attempting to defend market support near $86 per cwt. Current market weakness in cash trade is adding to the uncertainty about renewed support. Cash prices are unavailable due to reporting delays on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices unreported on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork cutouts are unreported due to delays. Lean hog index for 5/24 is $83.31, down $0.71, with a projected two-day index at $82.56, down $0.75.


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Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Follow-Through Pressure Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Limited cash trade interest is expected early Wednesday morning following the holiday Monday delaying the schedule from both packers and feedyard managers. Bids and asking prices are still unavailable but likely to see some additional interest through the midweek trading day. The support in boxed beef values and stability in futures trade should give more momentum to asking prices steady to higher with feeders looking for steady money by the end of the week. With the trend over the last few weeks moving to Wednesday trade in the South, it is likely that an emphasis on getting at least some deals done before the end of the day will be seen, But it is uncertain if that will happen due to the holiday-shortened week. Futures trade is expected mixed with additional pressure likely to develop in feeder cattle trade based on continued support in corn markets. Sharp double-digit gains are seen in corn and soybean markets in overnight trade following another bullish crop progress report where planting progress is falling further behind. Corn planting is at the slowest pace in at least 39 years with only 58% of corn planted as of last week. This will continue to reshape the direction of cattle markets due to feed costs becoming even more uncertain.

Active pressure is expected to continue early Wednesday morning following technical pressure, which has developed in all nearby lean hog trade over the last week. Continued concerns surrounding the ability to expand export trade continues to spark uncertainty through the entire complex. This may add even more volatility through summer contracts as traders grapple with the potential that current production and domestic demand will not be able to sustain current market prices without help from export support. There is still uncertainty surrounding the potential to move pork to China even at higher prices and overall tariff levels holding. Traders are still holding out that a long-term deal will develop, but this continues to erode recent support in lean hog trade. Cash trade is called steady to $1 lower Wednesday morning with most bids generally steady. Expected slaughter Wednesday is at 466,000 head.


BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1) Strong triple-digit gains in boxed beef values is pointing to renewed underlying support in beef values following the Memorial Day holiday. This is likely to help bring a sense of stability into live cattle prices through midweek. 1) Double-digit gains in corn and soybean markets has caused aggressive production pressure in feeder cattle trade. This will reshape overall feed cost projections, and directly affect the amount paid for feeder cattle over the coming weeks and months.
2) Despite sharply higher grain prices and tumbling feeder cattle markets, buyer support in live cattle futures has remained steady to firm through early-week trade. This is helping to rekindle noncommercial trader interest during late May. 2) Corn planting is 58% completed as of the end of last week. This is the slowest planting rate seen in at least 39 years with many states already past the prevented planting date set by federal crop insurance. This lack of corn planting is expected to have a dramatic impact on long-term prices and feed costs.
3) Aggressive triple-digit movement swiftly shifted pork cutout values higher with strong gains in most primals while belly cuts posted double-digit support ahead of seasonal market support focusing on bacon demand. 3) Sharp triple-digit losses through the last two trading session has continued to aggressively break through support levels in nearby contracts. This market weakness is likely to add market liquidation through the entire complex.
4) Long-term demand for pork continues to be seen in domestic and global markets, despite the trade uncertainty with China. Traders will continue to look for additional export sales developing in the export sales report late this week. 4) Cash hog values continue to slowly but steadily erode through the week despite recent support in pork values. Packers are keeping their hand on the production throttle, limiting the amount of hogs needed to be purchased and overall output of pork. This is an attempt to rebuild packer margins through early summer.



#completeherdhealth

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Most Hog Futures Fall by Triple Digits

GENERAL COMMENTS: Feeder cattle and lean hog futures fell Tuesday on a lack of market support. Early live cattle support helped to stabilize the market, leaving futures in a mixed range in limited volume. Cash cattle interest remained at a near standstill with bids and asking prices generally undefined going into midweek. The late start to the trade week due to the holiday on Monday has most packers and feed yards willing to wait until later in the week before stepping up with price levels. It is expected that trade may be pushed to the second half of the week, although at this point, some limited Wednesday trade could still develop, but not likely. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $1.07 lower ($72-$78, weighted average $76.90) on 5,482 head sold. Corn futures surged higher in active trade with July up 16 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 234 points lower with the NASDAQ down 29 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle traders remained on the sidelines Tuesday, resulting in a mixed close, $0.47 lower to $0.37 higher. Initial buyer support in live cattle futures eroded following losses in feeder cattle trade. The June futures contract led the complex higher, but the limited volume in spot-traded futures seemed to instill little confidence that additional support may develop over the near future. Traders are caught between aggressive losses in hog and feeder cattle trade and the focus on growing beef demand. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $1.98 (select, $210.45) to up $1.65 (choice, $223.29) with moderate demand and offerings, 106 loads (49 loads of choice cuts, 22 loads of select cuts, 22 load of trimmings, 14 loads of coarse grinds).
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Limited interest Tuesday is expected to push any bids and asking prices to midweek or later. It is uncertain if active buyer interest will be seen Wednesday in the South as has developed over the past several weeks due to the holiday Monday.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures closed $0.92 to $1.40 lower on rising production costs. Triple-digit losses held in most contracts Tuesday. Even though prices backed away from session lows, the pressure became more intense through midday following double-digit gains in corn futures on continued concern about planting rates and long-term supplies. Feeder cattle traders are being affected more by short- and long-term production costs associated with feeding cattle. This has a direct relationship with the price paid for feeder cattle and may continue to erode market support. CME cash feeder index for 5/27 is $136.55, up $0.50.
LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures were under pressure Tuesday as traders continued to focus on technical pressure. The full range of closes was $2.45 lower to $0.02 higher. Lean hog futures are trading at their lowest levels in over two months with traders focusing on uncertainty over a trade deal with China. Technical selling continues to be driving the complex as widespread liquidation is seen through the end of May. Pork cutouts rallied following an $11-per-cwt gain in belly cuts. Pork cutout values gained $2.69 per cwt, moving to $85.96 per cwt on 254 loads. CME cash lean index for 5/23 is $84.02, down $0.34. DTN Projected lean index for 5/24 is $83.31, down $0.71.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Firm follow-through pressure is expected to be seen in cash bids, although as packers attempt to fill procurement needs, the potential of posting significant losses may be limited. Wednesday's slaughter is expected at 466,000 head.


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Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Active Hog Pressure Continues

General Comments
Active pressure quickly moved through livestock futures Tuesday morning, taking away any sense of market support following the holiday weekend. Storms and rain through many areas of the country over the weekend added further concern of building demand, and the potential to move active mean supplies through the consumer markets. Corn futures are higher in moderate trade. July corn futures are 12 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 31 points higher with NASDAQ up 34 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures remain mixed following moderate to wide shifts through the morning. Initial gains were unable to hold through midmorning as traders continue to focus on active pressure in hog and feeder cattle trade. But as limited volume is seen in the live cattle complex, traders seem to be focusing more on the potential for moderate to strong demand support through the upcoming weeks. Cash cattle markets are quiet early in the week with bids and asking prices still undeveloped. This could easily push trade to the last half of the week due to the late holiday driven start. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $2.36 higher (select) and up $1.43 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 36 total loads reported (19 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 6 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Active pressure through the morning has created additional softness through the entire complex. There is increased trade volume moving into feeder cattle futures, but prices have backed away from morning lows following renewed stability in live cattle trade. This may help to spark late week stability in the feeder cattle market, although traders still remain extremely cautious given the overall growth in feeder cattle supplies and expected meat supplies through the end of the year. Strong double-digit gains in corn trade is also creating uncertainty through the entire complex and bringing active seller interest back to the table.
LEAN HOGS:
Expanded trading limits have quickly come into play Tuesday morning with nearby contracts holding losses of $3 to $3.20 per cwt at midday. Following limit losses late last week, limits are set at $4.50 per cwt, creating additional room for traders to push prices lower through the session. Underlying weakness has continued to develop over the last week despite a rally cry from many industry leaders that global pork demand will continue to develop even if trade deals with China are unavailable. The concern over the weekend that a trade deal with China, at least over the short term, is less and less likely is causing many traders to lose hope that U.S. pork will find its way back into the Chinese market. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.09 at $76.88 per cwt with the range from $72.00 to $77.50 on 4,862 head reported sold. Cash prices unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values quickly firmed following steady early week buying. Pork cutouts added $1.28 per cwt at $84.55 per cwt with 118 loads traded. Lean hog index for 5/23 is $84.02, down 0.34, with a projected two-day index at $83.31, down 0.71.


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Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Increased Volume Likely

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
Cash cattle interest is expected to remain quiet through most of the morning, although packers and feedlot managers will likely focus on becoming slightly more aggressive just because of the short trading week and delayed start. Show list distribution and inventory taking will be the main focus Tuesday with moderate availability expected. The weaker cash market trend over the last month has followed the softness in futures and cutout values, but traders continue to focus on firm upcoming demand through the next several days and weeks. Mixed futures trade is likely early Tuesday morning as traders step into the complex with Friday's cattle on feed data. Even though cattle on feed and placement numbers are elevated from year-ago levels, values came in well below market expectations which had been factored into the complex. This is likely to bring moderate buying support to select contract months, although the cattle market still struggles with growing supply levels.
Aggressive technical pressure quickly developed late Friday with traders taking advantage of the long holiday weekend and limited end-of-week volume. The shift lower broke through initial support levels in June contracts, bringing about additional weakness through the entire complex. June through August futures posted limit losses of $3 per cwt, which sparked additional underlying weakness in all contracts, allowing widespread liquidation Friday. Increased tensions between U.S. and China has continued to soften the overall complex, but traders still focus on the potential of growing domestic and global demands, which should help to bring stability to fundamentals through the upcoming months. Cash trade is called steady to $1 lower Tuesday morning with most bids steady to weak. Expected slaughter Tuesday is at 469,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)Cattle on feed totals in Friday's report was well below pre-report estimates, which had adjusted trade interest through the end of last week.1)Cattle on feed placements grew 9% from year-ago levels, adding additional concerns surrounding the ability to keep supplies in check through the rest of the year.
2)Live cattle futures continues to firmly hold above short-term support levels of $106.72 per cwt in August futures. This is expected to be setting the stage for additional underlying support through the entire complex.2)Total cattle on feed levels are at the highest level of May since data has been collected in 1996. This is expected to continue to put pressure on overall supply levels through the summer months.
3)Pork cutout values bounced higher late last week ahead of the long weekend. This is helping to rekindle buyer interest as seasonal pork product demand is growing.3)Limit losses in all summer contracts has sparked additional underlying weakness through the entire lean hog complex Tuesday morning.
4)Lean hog futures remain extremely oversold given the underlying growing pork demand on a global basis. This should spark noncommercial support redeveloping through nearby contracts over the next couple of weeks.4)Follow-through weakness is likely in cash hog trade as packers continue to curb production levels in order to limit spending and potentially improve plant margins through the end of the month.



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Friday, May 24, 2019

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Hog Futures Tumble Late

GENERAL COMMENTS: Cattle on Feed numbers were increased to the highest levels reported in May, but were well off pre-report estimates. Limited direction was seen ahead of the report Friday. Additional market shifts could be seen next week, as traders have the entire three-day weekend to mull over report numbers and their potential impact. Cash cattle activity was quiet Friday afternoon following moderate-to-active trade Wednesday and Thursday. Cash cattle sold at $114 to $116 live and $184 to $185 dressed. This is generally steady to $2 per cwt lower than last week. Both sides are going back to the drawing board over the long holiday weekend, although limited interest is expected early next week with showlist distribution and inventory-taking the main focus Tuesday. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $2.51 lower ($72-$80, weighted average $77.97) on 5,481 head sold. Corn futures surged higher in active trade with July up 14 1/2 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 95 points higher with the NASDAQ up 8 points.

LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures ended narrowly mixed ($0.37 lower to $0.40 higher) in limited-volume trade. Compared to the active movement in hog futures, direction was limited in live cattle trade Friday. Trade held in its current pattern as traders searched for additional news. Light-to-moderate support in beef values Friday morning while cash business remained quiet left traders looking for direction Friday afternoon. The Cattle on Feed numbers, released following the market close, will affect trade next Tuesday. However, the numbers should have a less dramatic impact than expected. Cattle inventory grew 2% in April, with May 1 totals at record levels since data has been collected. Cattle in feedlots increased 168,000 head from April 1 levels, indicating supply growth that will likely limit buyer activity. But total placements were well below pre-report estimates, which should help stabilize the market next week. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $1.94 (select, $208.47) to up $0.85 (choice, $221.64) with moderate demand and offerings, 100 loads (44 loads of choice cuts, 26 loads of select cuts, 13 load of trimmings, 16 loads of coarse grinds).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given the short trading week next week, packers and feed yard managers are expected to become more aggressive, although activity is not likely on Tuesday. Showlist distribution and inventory-taking will still be the focus Tuesday.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle trade was mixed on uncertainty ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. Futures closed 0.57 lower to $0.20 higher. Feeder cattle trade was sluggish ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. But the uncertainty generated by pre-report estimates turned out to be overblown, as cattle placements in April came in well below pre-report estimates, though still showed strong gains. Feeder cattle placements jumped 9% over year-ago levels with 1.8 million head moving to feed yards. This was a dip from March levels, showing seasonal declines developing. CME cash feeder index for 5/23 is $136.81, up $3.46.

LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures dropped sharply late Friday, closing limit down ($1.62 to $3.00 lower). Late-week trade took an aggressive turn lower with all summer contracts setting limit losses of $3 per cwt. This will allow expanded trading limits early next week when markets open Tuesday. With markets closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day, traders appear to be extremely concerned about news developing over the weekend that would signal worsening trade relations with China. The pressure in pork values through the end of the week is putting pressure on market fundamentals, as well, leading to active liquidation in Friday's lightly traded market. Pork cutouts firmed following double-digit gains in rib cuts. Pork cutout values gained $0.65 per cwt, moving to $83.27 per cwt on 298 loads. CME cash lean index for 5/22 is $84.36, down $0.03. DTN Projected Lean Index for 5/23 is $84.02, down $0.34.


TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 lower. Pressure moving into the long holiday weekend and limit losses in lean hog futures is expected to spark additional cash market pressure. Most bids are expected steady to 50 cents lower early in the week. Tuesday's slaughter is expected at 471,000 head.


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Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hog Prices Tumble

General Comments

Strong pressure has continued to develop in hog trade with triple-digit losses quickly developing late Friday. This may add increased long-term pressure ahead of the long holiday weekend. Corn futures are higher in moderate trade. July corn futures are 11 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 109 points higher with NASDAQ up 33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures are steady to moderately lower with increased pressure developing in all but front-month June futures. Growing concern of expected growth in cattle on feed numbers is causing traders to take protection in front of the report and long holiday weekend. With markets closed Monday, traders will have to wait until Tuesday before reacting to the report, which may add increased volatility through the entire complex. Cash cattle trade remained quiet with no additional bids seen Friday. Cash trade is expected to be done for the week in all areas, with prices steady to $2 per cwt lower than last week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.95 higher (select) and up $0.71 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 64 total loads reported (28 loads of choice cuts, 13 loads of select cuts, 12 loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures have moved firmly lower in late day trade with prices 22 to 90 cents per cwt lower as traders prepare for the upcoming cattle on feed report. Expectations that sharp increases in cattle placements will be seen in the afternoon cattle on feed report has eroded any previous support and added a weaker market trend.

LEAN HOGS:
Active pressure has quickly moved into lean hog futures trade through the last couple hours of trade Friday. The concern that markets will remain closed over the next three days is sparking increased uncertainty through the entire lean hog complex surrounding the relationship between the U.S. and China. Even though volume in the complex remains extremely light late Friday, the focus on market protection is pushing prices $2 to $2.50 per cwt lower at the end of the week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $2.52 at $77.96 per cwt with the range from $72.00 to $78.53 on 5,095 head reported sold. Cash prices unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values continued higher following strong gains in rib primal cuts. Pork cutouts added $0.90 per cwt at $83.52 per cwt with 167 loads traded. Lean hog index for 5/22 is $84.36, down 0.03, with a projected two-day index at $84.02, down 0.34.

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Friday Morning Livestock Market Update- Limited Livestock Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Following moderate trade over the last two days, cash cattle markets appear to be essentially done for the week. Although the potential for some clean up trade may develop, the tone of the market is expected to be set with prices at $114 to $116 live and $184 to $185 dressed. Generally cash prices for the week were steady to $2 per cwt lower depending on the area of the country and delivery terms for cattle sold. Futures trade is expected mixed as traders adjust to outside markets early Friday but quickly turn attention to the upcoming cattle on feed report where pre-report expectations point to a strong shift higher in overall cattle in feedyards as well as increased placement levels. If the report is anywhere near the early estimates, a bearish tone is expected to hover through the complex. A portion of this bearishness has already been worked through market prices, but increased volatility early next week may quickly develop.

Narrowly mixed trade is expected early Friday with limited new information available for the hog complex to trade at the end of the week. The underlying concerns surrounding the trade war with China is being countered by overall global demand for pork in the wake of African swine fever. This will continue to be the plot of the lean hog complex over the near future with very little additional information on either issue available in order that traders can put specific numbers too. This will become a challenge through most of the summer as the anticipated target will continue to steadily move day-to-day, and will likely keep markets swinging from one direction to another. The fact that China was back in the market last week buying pork, is encouraging, although given the overall history or China sales, until the product is shipped, it should not give traders too much confidence. Cash trade is called steady to $1 lower Friday morning with bids scattered through the range. Expected slaughter Friday is at 458,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 43,000 head.


BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1) The upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend is expected to spark additional buyer support and focus on demand strength through the complex. 1) Growing concerns of expanding cattle supplies ahead of the cattle on feed report is likely to cause market pressure as traders adjust to potential cattle placement levels.
2)
The ability to hold short-term support levels of $109.50 per cwt in June futures is helping to create additional technical interest through the entire complex.
2) The long holiday weekend may create additional pressure Friday with limited trade volume expected through the end of the week, as well as traders having to hold any cold storage report data until Tuesday when markets reopen following the holiday break. This may add a bearish tone to the complex next week.
3)
Strong cash hog support late Thursday helped to regain overall market confidence that tighter market ready hog supplies are seen at the end of the week, pointing to additional further clearance over the near future.
3) Sharp losses in pork cutout values once again focus on wide primal market shifts and the concern that summer domestic demand is being hampered by previous price support.
4) Active export sales to China in weekly export sales report is expected to continue to bring stability to the entire lean hog complex over the near future. This may help spark additional underlying support through the entire complex. 4) The overall trade deal with China and overall global economic concerns will continue to hold a dark cloud over the hog complex as traders remain uncertain of a timeline of even direction that the market will take before any resolution is seen.


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