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Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - July Ends With Hogs Limit Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Wide-ranging losses were seen throughout the livestock trade Wednesday with nearby cattle futures ending down $1 to $1.60 per cwt. Hog futures stumbled lower with October through February contracts closing down the $3-per-cwt limit. Hope that renewed support will develop Thursday due to the start of a fresh month may not be enough to stabilize the market. Cash cattle activity was starting to trickle into the market Wednesday with light activity reported in Texas at $111 per cwt, while Northern trade has been reported at $114 live and $182 to $185 per cwt dressed. Additional trade is expected in all areas, though it may be delayed until Thursday or Friday. Asking prices are seen at $114 and higher in the South, while dressed trade is seen at $186 to $187 per cwt in the North. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $2.18 lower ($70-$85, weighted average $80.30) on 10,153 head sold. Corn futures moved lower in moderate trade with September down 11 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 328 points lower with the NASDAQ down 98 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures settled $0.65 to $1.42 lower. Sharp losses quickly moved through live cattle trade Wednesday as traders focused on limit losses in lean hogs. Despite attempts to stabilize live cattle futures near recent highs, the widespread pressure seen in most commodity markets created softness in the complex late Wednesday. Strong pressure in the grain trade and triple-digit losses in the stock markets following a rate cut by the Federal Reserve added to the market instability Wednesday. Market pressure could continue as traders look for longer-term direction and hopefully stability during early August. Beef cut-outs: lower, down $1.44 (select, $189.69) to down $0.49 (choice, $213.54) with light demand and moderate offerings, 156 loads (59 loads of choice cuts, 52 loads of select cuts, 16 loads of trimmings, 30 loads of coarse grinds).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Following limited trade Wednesday in a few areas, packer interest is expected to slowly improve through the end of the week. Initial interest is expected sluggish early Thursday with asking prices holding through the week.
FEEDER CATTLE: Widespread livestock market losses overshadowed pressure in the grains market, leaving prices unsupported. Futures closed $1.00 to $1.60 lower. Losses quickly flooded into feeder cattle trade with nearby contracts falling $1.50 to $1.60 per cwt, erasing Tuesday's gains. Traders looked past lower production costs, which helped bring limited support earlier in the week, and quickly liquidated positions at the end of the month. The concern that additional market weakness will develop in early August added pressure to nearby and deferred feeder cattle contracts. CME cash feeder index for 7/30 is $142.15, up $0.07.
LEAN HOGS: Lean hogs closed limit lower (down $1.55 to $3.00). Any hint of end-of-the-month short-covering quickly eroded as traders focused on liquidation through the end of Wednesday's session. This pushed October through February futures contracts down $3 per cwt, locked in limit losses most of the afternoon. All contracts settled triple digits lower, with October closing at $71 per cwt. This puts nearby contracts in danger of breaking through support levels seen during early July. Even though support remains at $68 per cwt, Wednesday's market action proves that a $3-per-cwt market cushion can quickly erode, especially since expanded trading limits will be available to traders Thursday. A move below this level would lead to an even more bearish market tone through the entire complex. Pork values firmed on triple-digit gains in butt and belly cuts. Pork cutout was up $0.41 per cwt to $87.50 per cwt on 250 loads. The CME cash lean index for 7/29 is $82.10, up $1.86. The DTN Projected Lean Index for 7/30 is $83.41, up $1.31.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: $1 lower to $1 higher. Sharp pressure in futures trade is expected to quickly cool packer bids through the end of the week. This could spark additional early month pressure, although at this point, most bids are expected steady to firm based on the need to procure additional hogs. Thursday slaughter numbers are expected at 475,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 34,000 head.


#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Active Losses Develop in Livestock Markets

General Comments
Active liquidation quickly flooded through the entire livestock complex Wednesday with lean hog and feeder cattle futures down by triple digits at midday. Lean hog futures are flirting with limit losses once again as October through April contracts are down $2.55 per cwt or more. General weakness in live cattle trade is leading to increased weakness at the end of the month. Corn futures are lower in light trade with September down 6 cents. Stock markets are higher in light trade with the Dow Jones 14 points higher and the NASDAQ up 14 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Follow-through pressure is slowly but steadily moving into live cattle trade on the last trading day of July. Most pressure is seen in December and February futures contracts, with each holding triple-digit losses at midday. The aggressive losses in hog futures have quickly sparked concern throughout the livestock trade, as the moves lower could signify a much more aggressive selling trend in early August. This may spark some stability over the next couple of weeks, but buyers are unwilling to move into the bearish market structure given the active liquidation seen over the last couple of days. Cash cattle bids are slowly starting to improve with live bids of $110 and dressed bids ranging from $179 to $185 per cwt. Light trade has been reported by a regional packer at $185 per cwt, steady with limited trade seen Tuesday. Asking prices remain at $114 live and $186 and higher dressed, but strong futures pressure is likely to limit improvement in bids through the rest of the day. Most trade is likely to be pushed off until Thursday or Friday as traders look for early month price stability. Boxed beef cutouts at midday are lower, down $0.91 (select) to down $0.33 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 95 total loads reported (35 loads of choice cuts, 27 loads of select cuts, 11 loads of trimmings, 21 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Active pressure is seen across all feeder cattle contracts with traders quickly offsetting earlier gains seen Tuesday. Although additional strong pressure is seen in the grain trade, traders quickly shifted gears from focusing on lower production costs to the pressure developing in all other livestock trade. The recent pressure still has not damaged the recent market support, as prices remain near short-term highs at the end of the month.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures quickly tumbled lower Wednesday morning as unrestricted liquidation is nearing limit losses once again midday. This overall lack of buyer activity at the end of the month has further eroded prices with traders looking for any sense of stability. It appears that nearby contracts will test limit losses before the end of the session. If prices close out July at these levels, increased pressure is likely to be seen through the rest of the week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $3.18 lower at $79.30 per cwt with the range from $75 to $82 on 3,233 head reported sold. Pork values shifted lower despite mixed price shifts in primal cuts. Pork cutouts fell $0.57 per cwt at $86.52 per cwt with 136 loads traded. Lean hog index for 7/29 is $82.10, up $1.74, with a projected two-day index is $83.41, up $1.31.


#completecalfcare

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Hog Market Weakness Adding Long-Term Concern

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
Limited development in cash cattle trade through the early part of the week is expected to create sluggish overall interest from both sides Wednesday morning. Bids and asking prices are likely to be few and far between through the first part of the day, although packer interest is expected to improve slightly as the day continues. Although there is likely to be some emphasis on trading cattle before the end of the month, the wide gap between asking prices and bids will limit overall trade activity at this point. Although there were a few bids at $183 per cwt on Tuesday in the North, interest in the South remained quiet, which is the opposite of what is typical through the first half of the week. Futures trade is expected mixed midweek with live cattle futures expected to hover in a narrow trading range through most of the morning, while the potential for additional underlying gains in feeder cattle will depend more on the direction of grain trade rather than moves in live cattle trade at the end of July.
Continued pressure is expected to develop in lean hog trade as a bearish tone has swept across the entire complex. Over the last week, October lean hog futures have tumbled nearly $8 per cwt, creating not only a bearish trend, but quickly distancing price levels from late-summer highs. Although nearby contracts still remain well above support levels due to the aggressive buyer support that flooded into the complex, the potential to find support over the near future remains uncertain given the lack of optimism surrounding export trade and continued strong pork production through the country. Fundamentally, traders should find support at current levels, but the aggressive liquidation the last few days has allowed markets to move lower based primarily on trade momentum as buyers have been unwilling to step into the falling market. This is likely to keep market volatility high in the near future and add to increased wide price swings during early August. Cash bids are expected $1 to $2 per cwt higher with most bids $1 higher. Expected slaughter Wednesday is at 475,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 34,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Active gains in wholesale beef values developed during early-week trade. This is helping to regain underlying fundamental support as traders look for firming end-of-summer beef demand to help stabilize market activity.
1)
The turn lower Tuesday in nearby live cattle futures could indicate a double top developing in futures charts. The potential that this may have set the seasonal high near $110 per cwt in October futures could limit underlying technical support the next few weeks.
2)
Sharp gains in feeder cattle futures Tuesday broke away from the generally weaker trend across the complex. Feeder cattle traders turned the focus back to eroding grain markets, which is softening the blow of higher feed costs.
2)
Growing concern of long-term trade relations with many of our trading partners continues to be an underlying topic as tensions seem to be generally high with most trade relationships, not just China. Concerns of any potential upcoming changes in trade policy with Japan is currently a major concern to the beef industry.
3)
Aggressive gains developed in wholesale pork cutout values Tuesday afternoon with strong underlying support developing in ham and belly cuts. This is expected to help support overall fundamental market shifts once the widespread and emotional liquidation subsides in lean hog futures.
3)
Active liquidation continues through lean hog futures trade, with October futures falling nearly $9 per cwt over the last week. This is likely to add even more concern in the entire complex.
4)
The fact that trade talks with China are currently underway should not be overlooked. Even though short-term results are not expected, the fact that the two sides are currently talking again is a step in the right direction and should move the process along.
4)
Overall long-term demand for pork continues to be a major concern given the still strong supply levels, and lack of confidence that active export demand will be revived in the near future.



#completeherdhealth

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Losses Continue in Hog Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Active pressure in lean hog futures set a weaker tone for live cattle and lean hog trade Tuesday. The underlying pressure is creating additional concern of late month pressure in livestock trade. Corn futures moved lower in light trade. September futures is 5 1/2 cents per bushel lower. Dow Jones Index is 23 points lower with Nasdaq down 19 points.
CASH MARKETS: Cash cattle markets are quiet following limited bids and asking prices in the North. There are reports of a few cattle selling in the North at $183 to $185 per cwt dressed, but this is not enough to establish a trend. Additional interest may develop Wednesday, but active trade may not be seen until Thursday of Friday. National Daily Direct afternoon hog report is $0.64 higher with a weighted average of $82.54 per cwt. Full range of $71 to $87 per cwt on 8,550 head sold.
LIVE CATTLE: Moderate weakness filtered into live cattle trade as traders focused on pressure through most commodity markets ($0.17 to $0.55 lower). The tone of the market remains firm as traders hold prices near short-term highs. These recent market shifts could establish a moderate sideways trading range between $107 and $110 per cwt over the near future.Beef cut-outs: higher, $1.37 higher (select, $191.13) and up $0.77 (choice, $214.03) with moderate demand and light offerings, 127 loads (53 loads of choice cuts, 32 loads of select cuts, six loads of trimmings, 35 loads of coarse grinds).
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Although limited bids and offers have developed, little direction is expected early Wednesday. Trade may be delayed until late in the week after the first of August.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle trade focused on recent weakness in grain trade ($0.52 to $1.22 Higher). Initial pressure in feeder cattle markets was sparked by underlying softness through livestock markets. However, the strong pressure seen in corn trade Tuesday quickly brought buyers back to the table. This created underlying support in most nearby trade with September through November futures holding triple-digit gains. The underlying firmness is focusing on reduced production costs, although it is uncertain how much follow through support will develop at the end of the week.CME cash feeder index for 7/29 is $142.08, up $0.58.
LEAN HOGS:
Widespread liquidation continued, pushing markets sharply lower ($0.05 to $2.45 Lower). Active follow through pressure developed Tuesday, as traders not only focused on earlier pressure, but focused on the potential losses that may develop through the week. Even though there seems to be underlying support near current levels, the aggressive selling over the last couple of days is causing uncertainty that buying interest will be able to step into the market anytime soon. Pork values surged higher with strong ham and belly cut gains. Pork cutout values added $3.05 per cwt, moving to $87.09 per cwt on 298 loads. CME cash lean index for 7/26 is $80.36, up $1.50. DTN Projected lean index for 7/29 is $82.10, up $1.86.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 higher. Continued, but limited support is expected to be seen midweek with most bids steady to $1 per cwt higher during morning trade as packers secure needs for early August. Wednesday slaughter numbers are expected at 475,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 34,000 head.


#completeherdhealth

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hog Market Weakness Continues

General Comments
Lean hog futures have led the livestock complex lower Tuesday morning with technical pressure quickly adding to the limit or near limit losses seen Monday. Although futures have backed away from session lows at midday, the underlying weakness across the lean hog and live cattle market continues. Corn futures are lower in light trade with September down 5 3/4 cents. Stock markets are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 33 points lower with the NASDAQ down 25 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have eroded Tuesday morning with increased pressure seen in nearby futures. This latest softness is putting more emphasis on continued underlying bearishness through the complex and could lead to increased end-of-the-month liquidation. Concerns that beef demand may not show significant improvement over the near future could add even more softness to the entire complex. Cash cattle interest remains generally sluggish with a few token bids developing in Nebraska at $183 per cwt. This is still well below asking prices of $186 per cwt, and could delay any trade until later in the week. All other areas remain quiet late Tuesday morning. Boxed beef cutouts at midday are higher, up $1.74 (select) to up $1.20 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 74 total loads reported (22 loads of choice cuts, 20 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 27 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Limited support early Tuesday morning has gained momentum with nearby contracts holding 75- to 80-cent gains due to moderate pressure in grain trade. The weakness in grain markets has sparked renewed interest in nearby and deferred feeder cattle futures, although the tone of other livestock trade is extremely weak. The breakaway from live cattle market direction will put more focus on production costs through the end of the month rather than the general direction or strength of the cattle market.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hogs are triple digits lower at midday, although prices have pulled back from session lows as seller interest seems to be slowing after losses of $4 to $5 per cwt in the last two sessions. Although it is premature to expect active buying to push prices higher over the near future, there seems to be support building around $74 to $75 per cwt in fourth-quarter contracts. This could help to stabilize the overall hog complex and bring additional support to other livestock markets. Cash prices are unreported due to delays on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values posted sharp gains on gains in ham and belly cuts. Pork cutouts added $3.41 per cwt at $87.45 per cwt with 119 loads traded. Lean hog index for 7/26 is $80.36, up 1.50, with a projected two-day index is unavailable due to reporting delays.

#completeherdhealth

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Early Market Weakness Likely

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
Cash cattle activity is expected to remain muted through most of the morning with bids and asking prices still likely to be hard to pin down at this point of the week. Given the light trade last week, overall offerings are generally larger but is not likely to cause packers to become overly aggressive, at least early in the week. Pressure in futures trade Monday and upcoming end-of-the-month positioning is expected to create additional hesitancy on both sides to step into the market on Tuesday. Although midweek trade is still a possibility, it is likely that trade will be pushed off until sometime Thursday or Friday. This could allow for another round of wide gaps between asking prices and bids once both sides actually step into the market during the week. Futures trade is expected to remain weak although a combination of follow-through pressure and short-covering is likely to develop Tuesday. The tone of the live cattle trade remains firm as traders focus on nearby contracts near short-term resistance levels, helping to rekindle the bullish overall tone of the market through the end of the month.
Sharp losses have quickly redeveloped in lean hog trade as limited buyer interest Monday allowed for a wide market shift as October contracts closed limit lower. This not only adds to the overall weakness of the market through the end of the month, but also expands trading limits Tuesday with lean hog trade able to move $4.50 per cwt in either direction without restrictions. The wider market shift could add even more volatility through the end of July. Although the weaker tone in the complex Monday would point to follow-through pressure early Tuesday, selling interest is expected to thin out significantly at current levels, allowing buyers to move back into the complex on Tuesday. Cash bids are expected $1 to $2 per cwt higher with most bids $1 higher. Expected slaughter Tuesday is at 473,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
October live cattle futures continue to flirt with $110 per cwt price levels. A close above these levels through the end of the month would break through July highs, and post two-month highs, sparking potential renewed technical support during the month of August.
1)
Active pressure in feeder cattle trade has caused underlying concerns of additional end-of-the-month support through the entire cattle complex. This may add even more pressure through the next two days.
2)
Strong underlying support moved into boxed beef values early in the week. This is expected to help stimulate additional underlying confidence that additional demand support is developing in the wholesale beef complex through the last half of summer.
2)
If October live cattle futures cannot move above $110 per cwt through the end of the week, it will be a significant blow to further short-term support. Without moving through this resistance level, a wide but well defined sideways trend is being established.
3)
Trade talks with China are getting underway, creating hope and expectations that there will be light-to-moderate progress by the end of the week. This could help to rebuild market confidence that trade relations are improving, even if it may be a long process.
3)
Sharp triple-digit losses early in the week has started to erode buyer confidence in lean hog trade. October lean hog trade has fallen $5.35 per cwt in the last week, potentially setting seasonal highs, which could spark follow-through pressure at the end of the month.
4)
Cash hog prices continue to rally higher, with increased buyer support seen by packers in order to secure needed procurement numbers. The higher cash market support may continue to stimulate active support as packers have yet to significantly curb processing speeds at the higher prices.

4)
The strong underlying support in wholesale pork prices appears to be eroding with pork cutout values softening Monday. If further moderate-to-strong pressure develops in primal cuts through the next few days, additional wide market liquidation may develop in futures trade.


#completeforageprogram

Monday, July 29, 2019

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Futures Firm in End-of-Week Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Sharp early losses in lean hog futures sparked increased pressure as the Monday session continued. With October lean hog futures falling $3 per cwt and hitting limit losses, pressure spilled over to the rest of livestock trade. Corn futures moved higher in light trade. September futures closed 2 1/2 cents per bushel higher. Dow Jones Index is 42 points higher with Nasdaq down 34 points. Cash cattle markets remained subdued Monday with showlist distribution and inventory taking the main focus throughout cattle country. Showlists appear to be higher in most areas, with Kansas offerings generally steady, while other regions posted higher numbers offered. This is not surprising given the overall light trade last week. Business may be delayed until the last half of the week once again. National Daily Direct afternoon hog report is 3.37 higher with a weighted average of $81.46 per cwt. Full range of $72 to $88 per cwt on 8,155 head sold.
LIVE CATTLE: General pressure in livestock futures weakened live cattle interest Monday (steady to $0.45 lower). Live cattle futures were unable to hold light to moderate gains seen early Monday following spillover pressure from lean hog and feeder cattle contracts. Although little additional fundamental or technical direction was seen in the live cattle complex, the bearish pressure associated with triple-digit losses in lean hog and feeder cattle futures was too much to handle for cattle buyers. August futures remained unchanged in limited trade, while other nearby contracts eroded through the end of the session, falling 35 to 45 cents at closing bell. The underlying tone across the market is expected to remain firm, but cautious going into late July trade. Beef cut-outs: higher, $1.42 higher (select, $189.76) and up $1.09 (choice, $213.26) with moderate demand and light offerings, 91 loads (36 loads of choice cuts, 29 loads of select cuts, 8 loads of trimmings, 18 loads of coarse grinds).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Limited interest is expected Tuesday morning as bids and asking prices are not likely to develop until at least midday or even later. Trade could be pushed off until late week once again.
FEEDER CATTLE: Firm pressure developed following widespread livestock weakness and grain market support ($0.82 to $1.42 lower). Triple-digit pressure quickly developed in nearby trade as feeder cattle futures aggressively backed away from last week's support. This underlying pressure may add even more uncertainty to the complex as traders look for underlying support and potential stability in grain prices. All remaining 2019 contracts are stuck in a tight trading range, priced at $142 per cwt. The lack of premium across the complex is adding additional concerns that wide ranging buyer interest may be hard to find over the near future. CME cash feeder index for 7/24 is $137.42, up 0.71.
LEAN HOGS: Limit losses Monday sparked additional longer-term market concerns (steady to $3.00 lower). Sharp losses quickly moved into lean hog futures Monday morning with triple-digit pressure quickly setting the tone for a weaker underlying market softness. This lack of support allowed October futures to close $3 per cwt lower, hitting daily limit losses. This will allow extended trade limits to come into play Tuesday, to $4.50. Although recent market support over the last three has sparked a bullish trend, sharp pressure two of the last three sessions is quickly putting long-term support into question. Pork values slipped lower in early week activity following mixed primal moves. Pork cutout values fell $0.34 per cwt, moving to $84.04 per cwt on 223 loads. CME cash lean index for 7/25 is $78.86, up 1.63. DTN Projected lean index for 7/26 is $80.36, up 1.50.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 higher. Firm follow-through support is expected to redevelop in cash hog trade early Tuesday despite the pressure in futures markets. Most bids are expected steady to $1 per cwt higher. Tuesday slaughter numbers are expected at 472,000 head.


#completeherdhealth

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Pressure Develops in Hog Market

General Comments
Weakness quickly developed across lean hog trade with nearby contracts holding losses of $2 to $2.90 per cwt at midday. The pressure sweeping through hog trade has slowly but steadily spilled over to cattle markets, which are now trading mostly lower. Corn futures are higher in light trade with the September contract up 2 1/2 cents. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones is 44 points higher with the NASDAQ down 53 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Early support Monday morning quickly faded as widespread pressure through the rest of the complex added to uncertainty in live cattle trade. Although spot August is holding minimal gains at midday, the rest of the complex quickly eroded, with 30- to 60-cent losses holding at midday. The firm pressure in feeder cattle as well as expected lackluster moves in beef values at the end of the day is expected to keep cattle markets under light-to-moderate pressure. Cash cattle activity remains quiet Monday with the focus on showlist distribution and inventory-taking. Following light late-week trade, it may be midweek or later before any significant interest is seen through the complex. Boxed beef cutouts at midday are higher, up $0.23 (select) to up $0.82 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 42 total loads reported (20 loads of choice cuts, 10 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 12 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Firm morning pressure is developing across feeder cattle trade as renewed support in grain trade is once again putting the focus on production and feed costs through the end of the year. The August contract is leading the complex lower, down $1.07 per cwt, as traders are uncertain whether recent gains in live cattle trade will be able to hold over the near future. The potential for late-month pressure is seen in all nearby trade. The lack of premium in all remaining 2019 contracts continues to create caution through the market as traders focus on uncertainty in input costs not only during the fall, but well into next year.
LEAN HOGS:
Active pressure quickly swept through lean hog futures trade following the strong market rally over the last couple of weeks. The October contract is leading the complex lower, down $2.85 per cwt, although recent gains in the complex are minimizing the long-term or technical pressure in the complex. The potential that gains last week may have set a short-term top to the market could allow traders to establish a moderate-to-wide sideways trading range through the end of July and early August. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $1.94 higher at $80.03 per cwt with the range from $72 to $88 on 6,215 head reported sold. Pork values eroded in early week trade. Pork cutouts fell $1.10 per cwt at $83.28 per cwt with 114 loads traded. Lean hog index for 7/25 is $78.86, up $1.63, with a projected two-day index is $80.36, up $1.50.


#completeherdhealth

Monday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Early-Week Activity Expected Light

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
Limited cash cattle trade finally developed late Friday with live prices generally $112 per cwt, $1 lower than the previous week. Dressed trade developed at $183 per cwt, which is steady with the previous week. The overall lack of support in cash markets following the week-long standoff between packers and feeders is expected to be generally bearish to the entire tone of the complex. Weekly cash business Monday is expected to be limited to showlist distribution and inventory taking as both sides try to regroup and evaluate not only weekly direction, but the potential market shifts over the next several weeks and months. Futures trade is expected to remain mixed once again Monday morning with limited direction likely early in the week. The stability in beef values over the last several days is limiting widespread movements in beef values as traders continue to focus on a potential sideways trend developing over the near future.
Limited buying activity is expected to redevelop Monday morning as follow-through interest is likely in nearby futures contracts. The underlying firm tone in the complex continues to hold as traders pushed prices higher at the end of the week based on firming market fundamentals. A firm move higher early in the week would break through short-term resistance levels in nearby contracts, sparking potential interest from commercial and noncommercial traders over the next couple of weeks. There is limited hope redeveloping in the complex as trade talks with China are expected to take place in China through the week. Although overall expectations of the talks have been lowered greatly from earlier rounds, the potential to continue the dialogue and slowly move the process forward seems to be the underlying tone surrounding the upcoming negotiations. Cash bids are expected $1 to $2 per cwt higher with most bids $1 higher. Expected slaughter Monday is at 475,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Late-week gains in feeder cattle futures have sparked renewed support through the cattle complex. The firm nearby gains Friday broke through short-term resistance levels, setting two-month highs.
1)
Cash cattle trade ended last week steady to $1 per cwt lower. Given the underlying standoff until late Friday, this is viewed as slightly bearish for the entire cattle complex.
2)
Firm follow-through buyer support continues to slowly trickle into live cattle futures trade with traders comfortable holding prices at the top end of the summer price range. August futures have rallied $6 per cwt over the last month, sparking potential underlying support through late summer.
2)
Boxed beef values continue to show market softness with lackluster demand interest developing in late July. This may limit the recent support in futures trade, if traders focus on the lack of potential gains in wholesale beef values over the near future.
3)
Strong support has continued to develop in cash hog markets, with buying support increasing daily over the last week. This is sparking increased expectations of firm additional gains across the hog complex.
3)
With the trade talks this week with China, limited positive moves re expected in the pork complex based on trade deal expectations. Traders seem to be extremely cautious in setting bullish expectations given the lack of success in previous talks.
4)
Limited but bullish expectations are seen as the U.S. and China delegations get ready for another round of trade talks. Although sweeping decisions are not expected by the end of these talks, the hope is that some progress is expected to help stimulate market support.
4)
The strong market surge over the last month continues to leave the lean hog futures complex vulnerable to a moderate price correction that may last more than one or two trading sessions like was seen last week. Prices are becoming more vulnerable at current levels with still strong pork production expected to limit the upside momentum through fall months.



#completeherdhealth

Friday, July 26, 2019

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Futures Firm in End-of-Week Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Light-to-moderate buying interest led to gains in lean hog and feeder cattle futures Friday. The gains in lean hog futures came after Thursday's correction. The rally in feeder cattle futures was due to traders focusing on falling grain prices, which could lead to lower production costs. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Aug live cattle up $1.05; Oct live cattle up $1.40; Aug feeder cattle up $3.75; Sep feeder cattle up $4.30; Aug lean hogs up $2.55; and Oct lean hogs up $0.53. Cash cattle remained untraded by midafternoon Friday, although bids had improved in most areas. Southern live bids were at $111 per cwt, while Northern live bids were at $109 to $111. Dressed bids remained at $180 to $183 per cwt. Asking prices remained firm at $113 to $114 live and $186 to $187 dressed. Light-to-moderate trade was expected to develop before the weekend, but it could be late afternoon or early evening before deals are reached. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was unavailable at the time these comments were posted. Corn futures moved lower in sluggish trade with September down 4 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 36 points higher with the NASDAQ up 94 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Limited trade volume kept prices stuck in a narrowly mixed pattern. Futures closed $0.05 lower to $0.12 higher. August and October contracts closed unchanged, as traders remain focused on long-term support. But the lack of direction in cash or beef values is limiting additional buyer interest at this point. Additional support may slowly trickle into the complex, but given the moves over the last week, prices could continue in the sideways trading pattern. Noncommercial traders could lose interest over the next few weeks if they are unable to move prices more than a few pennies. This could leave livestock trade stable, but limited volume could hinder further long-term support. Beef cut-outs: lower, down $0.84 (select, $188.34) to down $0.40 (choice, $212.17) with light demand and moderate offerings, 98 loads (34 loads of choice cuts, 29 loads of select cuts, 12 loads of trimmings, 23 loads of coarse grinds).
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Activity Monday is expected to remain quiet given that cash trade develops later Friday evening. Showlist distribution and inventory-taking will likely be the extent of early week activity.
FEEDER CATTLE: Weaker grain prices led to late-day support in feeder cattle with futures settling $0.17 to $0.92 higher. The support Friday helped contracts break through short-term resistance levels set in early July. This pushed prices to two-month highs with the potential for additional underlying support to be seen early next week. CME cash feeder index for 7/24 is $137.42, up $0.71.
LEAN HOGS: Active buyer interest moved back into the lean hog market Friday following aggressive triple-digit losses Thursday. Futures closed $0.30 to $1.40 higher. With lean hog prices shifting direction in a wild market swing over the past week, end-of-the-week buying activity helped to confirm the bullish market tone and bring additional buyers back into the complex. Pork values continued to show limited support in light trade Friday. Pork cutout values added $0.50 per cwt, moving to $84.38 per cwt, on 200 loads. CME cash lean index for 7/24 is $77.23, up $1.65. DTN Projected lean index for 7/25 is $78.86, up $1.63.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 higher. Follow-through gains are expected early in the week. Although packers are starting to focus on reducing spending, plant output has not been affected at this point. Most bids are expected $1 per cwt higher early Monday morning. Monday slaughter numbers are expected at 475,000 head.



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Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Quiet Trade Friday

General Comments
Lack of volume and market direction is seen Friday morning with initial early support in hog trade holding as traders offset previous market adjustments, but as more volume moves into the complex is become more clear that traders are content with current positions and willing to hold a steady pattern into the weekend. Corn futures are lower in light trade. September corn futures are 3 1/2 cents lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 24 points higher with NASDAQ up 80 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Sluggish moves have developed in live cattle trade with mixed price shifts keeping prices within a single-digit market shift through most of the morning. The stability is expected to build additional market support early next week following the ability for prices to hold at the top end of the short-term range. Cash cattle bids are finally starting to become more active with live bids at $109 to $111, mostly $109 in the South and dressed bids of $180 to $183 per cwt. Asking prices remain firm at $113 to $114 live and $186 to $187 dressed basis. It may be late afternoon before active trade is seen. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.33 lower (select) and down $0.16 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 56 total loads reported (31 loads of choice cuts, 13 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 4 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Mixed trade is seen Friday morning as prices bounce higher and lower through the first few hours of trade with limited direction developing across the complex. Nearby fall contracts are showing some limited support based on pressure in corn trade, but the overall lack of support across the entire cattle markets and generally stable fundamentals is leaving most traders unwilling to take an aggressive position. This is keeping prices within a moderate range from 32 cents lower to 55 cents higher. This range is expected to hold through the end of the session.
LEAN HOGS:
Moderate gains are holding late Friday morning as traders have pushed prices higher through the morning following the market correction that developed Thursday. Although prices have eroded from session highs, the focus on increased buyer support is keeping nearby trade 50 to 70 cents per cwt higher in most contracts, allowing for continued market strength to develop across the entire complex. This may add additional early-week support to the entire complex once traders return from the weekend break. Cash prices are unreported on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Pork cutouts added $1.27 per cwt at $85.15 per cwt with 109 loads traded. Lean hog index for 7/23 is $75.58, up 1.29, with a projected two-day index is $77.23, up 1.65.



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Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Continued Hog Pressure Likely

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped going into Friday morning with limited bids seen during the week in most areas. The late-week development of cash interest is not shocking or unusual, but the fact that overall interest has been so light this week is somewhat surprising. The trend over the last two months is that at least a portion of trade, especially in the South, traded earlier in the week. Not only has early trade not developed, but bids have been hard to find in some areas. Packers are expected to still need additional cattle, which should spark increased packer interest through the day. Asking prices are holding from early-week levels, and unlikely to shift significantly until late in the day. Live cattle futures are expected to be mixed in a narrow range once again. The underlying support in the complex continues to focus on firm market levels through the end of the year, but any upward movement in the market is expected to be limited by narrow price shifts through the end of the week.
Firm pressure is likely to redevelop Friday morning in lean hog trade. The break from sharp and steady gains over the last couple of weeks has allowed for active pressure in nearby contracts Thursday. This is not seen as a shift in market direction, or any new bearish market news sweeping through the complex but is focused on the ability for traders to adjust positions following a generally unchecked market swing during the month of July. Cash bids are expected $1 to $2 per cwt higher with most bids $1 higher. Expected slaughter Friday is at 464,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 9,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Firm underlying support remains in live cattle futures, sparking expectations of light-to-moderate support through the end of the week. Even though aggressive price moves have not developed, the steady but consistent buyer activity the last two weeks is adding security to the recent market rally.
1)
The lack of aggressive continued buyer support moving into cattle futures is creating concerns that any market rally may stall out at the current levels. This would establish a short-term market top, and create a sideways market pattern that could hold through much of the summer and early fall.
2)
Cash markets are expected to firm due to the increased resolve of feedlot managers during the week, as they hold to aggressive asking prices. The consistent support in live cattle futures and continued steady demand is helping focus on steady -to-higher cash cattle trade Friday.
2)
Beef values have struggled to find market stability over the last couple of weeks. The lack of underlying support in beef cuts is concerning to the entire complex, and could quickly erode recent futures and cash market support, which has developed during early July.
3)
Lean hog futures continue to hold a strong market rally through the month of July. October contracts remain $10 per cwt higher since summer lows developed in early July, even following Thursday's $2.20 per cwt market loss. This is expected to remain bullish through the end of the month.
3)
Sharp losses Thursday has created concerns that additional sharp pressure may continue to develop through the end of the week. If additional triple-digit losses sweep through the market Friday, weaker market tones are likely early next week.
4)
Aggressive gains have again developed in wholesale pork values. This followed renewed support in belly cuts, coming from bacon demand and traditional summer buying activity for pork products.
4)
Even though trade talks with China are planned for next week, there is limited optimism in the market that any meaningful direction or decisions will come out of this round of talks. The expectation that a resolution may be a long way off, is creating concerns that pork export demand may remain subdued.


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Thursday, July 25, 2019

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Lean Hog Futures Fall

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Pressure developed in the lean hog trade Thursday. The October contract set the tone with a $2.20-per-cwt loss. The adjustment from previous unchecked gains is not unexpected and leaves market trends unchanged. Cattle futures moved in a narrow range in light trade. This could allow for sluggish but firm buying activity Friday. Cash cattle activity remains quiet with trade pushed off until Friday in all areas given the lack of increased bids developing during the day. Bids were seen in Nebraska at $109 to $111 live and $180 to $182 dressed. But no interest has been shown in the South at this point. This is a little surprising given that Southern interest typically develops earlier in the week. Asking prices remain firm at $113 and higher live and $186 to $187 dressed. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $1.74 higher ($68-$87, weighted average $83) on 14,584 head sold. Corn futures moved lower in sluggish trade with the September contract down 5 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 128 points lower with the NASDAQ down 82 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures ended narrowly mixed ($0.25 lower to $0.05 higher) as traders questioned long-term support. Trade activity remained extremely limited Thursday as prices hovered on either side of unchanged most of the session. Late-day selling developed following lackluster cash market interest and questions about wholesale beef support caused prices to slightly erode. Given the general firmness in the market, the softness in prices is not expected to stimulate additional pressure, but could result in some wider price shifts over the next couple of weeks. Beef cut-outs: lower, down $0.24 (select, $189.18) to down $1.03 (choice, $212.57) with moderate demand and light-to-moderate offerings, 130 loads (82 loads of choice cuts, 29 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 12 loads of coarse grinds).
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. The inability to spark trade early in the week is expected to cause both sides to adjust more than they would like. Initial interest is expected to remain sluggish Friday morning, although packer interest will likely improve quickly during the morning hours.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures closed mixed ($0.25 lower to $0.35 higher) in light trade. Futures bounced higher and lower in a narrow-to-moderate range most of the session. The lack of direction in the live cattle trade and drop in corn futures helped rekindle limited buyer support late in the session. But the tone of the market remains firm, at best, as traders continue to struggle to push prices above highs set last week. The inability of futures to break above these resistance levels in the upcoming trading sessions may allow the feeder cattle market to return to a moderate sideways trading range that could be sustained through the end of the summer. CME cash feeder index for 7/24 is $137.42, up $0.71.
LEAN HOGS: Active liquidation developed in lean hogs as traders adjusted prices lower (down $0.30 to $2.20). October through February futures contracts posted triple-digit losses with traders offsetting a portion of recent gains. With the October contract rallying $11 per cwt over the past two weeks, traders quickly focused on position-taking opportunities Thursday. But even with the strong pressure Thursday, the tone and technical structure of the market remains strong, which may quickly rekindle buyer support Friday. Pork values surged higher following a $10-per-cwt rally in belly cuts. Pork cutout values added $2.45 per cwt, moving to $83.88 per cwt, on 283 loads. CME cash lean index for 7/23 is $75.58, up $1.29. DTN Projected lean index for 7/24 is $77.23, up $1.65.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 higher. Increased price support is expected Friday in order to sustain current packing schedules. Most bids are expected $1 higher Friday morning. Friday slaughter numbers are expected at 464,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 9,000 head.


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