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Friday, November 29, 2019

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Close Lower, Lean Hogs Secure Higher Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's usually feared that during the holiday weeks that contracts will give away and cash cattle trade is nowhere to be found. This week ended up treating the lean hog and cattle sectors quite well. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.35 with a weighted average of $42.54. March corn is up 8 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 112.59 points and NASDAQ is down 39.71 points.
From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $2.53, February live cattle up $2.35; January feeder cattle up $3.00, March feeder cattle up $3.43; December lean hogs up $0.80, February lean hogs up $0.52.

LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts did a number this week on posting gains and not taking the week easy just because of a holiday. Much like the feeder cattle contracts, live cattle contracts rallied Monday through Wednesday, and then more or less gave Wednesday's gains back on Friday. December live cattle are down $0.22 at $121.20, February live cattle are down $0.50 at $126.20 and April live cattle are down $0.50 at $126.37. Cash cattle trade was rather impressive this week. Packers came in swinging low, but eventually divvied up the cash and paid more this week than they did last week. Most cash cattle sold for $187, $3.00 stronger than last week. Live cattle sold anywhere from $118 to $120, $2.00 to $4.00 higher than last week.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.12 ($232.12) and select down $0.30 ($210.34) with 65 loads total (32.20 loads of choice, 14.20 loads of select, 8.04 loads of trim and 10.33 loads of ground beef). Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head, and Friday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, up 1,000 head from a week ago and down 7,000.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. Next week will be a bit of a bet. Packers will need cattle because they didn't buy enough this week to fully meet their needs. However, they may play their fiddle and the market's psychology too, and argue that cattle are carrying mud. Nevertheless, trade will most likely heat up in the later part of the week, most likely be for higher money.

FEEDER CATTLE:
Some sale barns took the week off as they knew buyers wanted to spend time with their families instead of beating down icy roads to bid on calves, and rightfully so. This storm will wreak havoc on selling calves as shipping induces stress, as does new feed and the jostling of hauling to and from. The board performed exceptionally well on the feeder cattle side of things, etching higher Monday through Wednesday and then closing lower on Friday. January feeders closed $1.05 lower at $142.27, March feeders closed $0.90 lower at $143.02 and April feeders closed $0.65 lower at $144.97. The CME feeder cattle index 11/28/19: down $0.60 at $145.11.

LEAN HOGS:
Hey, hey, hey, the early bird doesn't always get the worm. Lean hog contracts have been more or less steady to slightly lower at times, but come Friday, contracts got with it and the spot contract rallied over $1.00. Cash trade has push hard to gravitate towards the $43.00 mark and make some progression this week. Pork cutouts totaled 213.75 loads with 181.28 loads of pork cuts and 32.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.87 at $81.85. The CME lean hog index 11/27/19: not available at this time.


MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will have some incentive to keep processing pork cuts with cutout prices higher, but we all know that market ready hogs are a dime a dozen right now, making it hard for producers to push prices much higher.



#completecalfcare

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Dip Lower While Hog Contracts Climb

General Comments

Cattle contracts seem to be sleeping in Friday morning potentially from an overdose of Thanksgiving goodness all while lean hog contracts decided that it's time to break up the steady trade and peak higher. March corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 84.00 points and NASDAQ is down 26.86 points.

LIVE CATTLE
Cattlemen decided that a long weekend was just what the doctor ordered this week and so they all got busy early this week and are sipping on coffee a little longer than usual this Friday morning. The live cattle contracts are all simply watching time pass, acting lackadaisical in nature and more than anything are checked out. December live cattle are down $0.40 at $121.02, February live cattle are down $0.92 at $125.77 and April live cattle are down $0.77 at $126.10. Cash trade is all but done for the week, where most of the business transpired on Wednesday. If any trade develops Friday afternoon it will be clean-up in nature.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.04 ($232.20) and select down $0.61 ($210.03) with a movement of 34 loads (14.81 loads of choice, 10.65 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.22 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE
This week's snow storm is raking havoc on feedlots and sale barns throughout cattle country. It's one thing to have snow, it's another thing to have wind, and it's common to have cold temperatures -- but when you mix all three variables together it makes for a tough week on feeders and a long week of doctoring sick calves for pen riders next week. January feeders are down $0.97 at $142.35, March feeders are down $0.75 at $143.17 and April feeders are down $0.47 at $145.10.

LEAN HOGS
It's been a good week for lean hog contracts considering the current circumstance that market is in with the trade agreements with China. Friday morning the board took the opportunity to rally while cattle contracts dissipate and are rallying in both nearby and deferred months. December lean hogs are up $1.37 at $62.05, February lean hogs are down $0.72 at $67.87 and April lean hogs are up $0.37 at $74.00.


The lean hog index for 11/16/19 is up $0.72 at $58.60 and the actual index for 11/25/19 is down $0.30 at $57.88. Hog prices are $0.10 higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, with a weighted average of $42.99, ranging from $40.00 to $43.65 on 6,240 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $42.41. Pork cutouts totaled 162.35 loads with 143.71 loads of prok cuts and 18.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $2.16 at $82.14. 


#completeherdhealth

Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Additional Price Swings May Follow Limited Volume

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though overall market activity is expected to remain limited Friday following the Thanksgiving holiday break, there are a lot of pieces still out of place that will need to be sorted out in a short time Friday. Cash cattle trade started to develop Wednesday with both sides hoping to get things squared away before leaving for Thanksgiving activities, but the winter storm through much of the Midwest and aggressive follow through support in futures trade limited the ability for cash market resolution in some areas. Although some spotted trade developed at $118 per cwt live basis and $187 per cwt live, as much as $3 to $4 per cwt higher, additional trade is expected to still develop. The main question through the morning is if packers will be willing to step back into the market, extending these offers, or at this point wait until next week to secure additional cattle needs. The aggressive triple-digit rally in futures trade also leaves some questions as to how much follow-through support will develop at the end of the month. With February contracts setting new contract highs Wednesday, the expectation that additional underlying support is developing through the complex. But given the holiday-shortened trading schedule Friday and expected trader participation to be sparse, prices could struggle to find additional support. Friday slaughter runs are expected at 116,000 head.

Early morning moves in lean hog futures is likely to remain as strategic as a coin flip Friday morning. Although proponents of both bullish and bearish market camps have plenty of ammunition to argue their reasoning, the fact that holiday trade and limited interest does not usually follow logical and fundamental market direction leaves late-week market moves generally unclear. Market participation is expected to remain extremely limited with many traders already checking out following the Wednesday session as Friday's market trade will be abbreviated, and some institution traders have Friday as a holiday. Given that market direction shifted lower ahead of the holiday and was unable to gain any momentum from the bullish shift in cattle trade can point to additional pressure developing through the end of November. But given the strong market pressure over the last three weeks in nearby contracts, it would take only a spark to rekindle buyer support which has limited downward market expectations. It is likely that trade will wander within a narrow to moderately mixed trading range through Friday morning, waiting for additional direction next week as traders turn the calendar to December. But at this point any market moves, narrow or wide, should not be unexpected. Cash hog bids are expected to $1 lower to $1 higher per cwt lower with most bids steady. Slaughter Friday is expected at 454,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 384,000 head.


BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1) Sharp underlying support midweek in live cattle and feeder cattle trade continues to move the focus on expanding market support through late November. With February contracts setting new contract highs, the focus on potential follow-through gains develops. 1) Limited volume Friday is likely to create uneven and volatile market movements through all cattle futures.
2) Despite cash cattle trade remaining limited Wednesday, the firm price support seen in areas where trade did develop points to additional cash market momentum building through the end of the week. 2) With Thanksgiving holiday demand in the rear view mirror, there will be limited short-term focus on beef demand moves. This could limit the underlying support in beef values over the upcoming weeks, starting to erode current packer margins and overall retail beef movements.
3) Cash hog values have started to firm through the last couple of days as packers are finding it hard to maintain desired plant capacity without pushing cash hog prices higher. In order to take advantage of still strong packer margins, packers are likely to continue to slowly increase cash values in order to draw more hogs to market. 3)
Lean hog futures continue to remain near long-term support levels with very limited bullish market indicators expected over the near future. A move below $66.77 per cwt in February futures may spark additional widespread pressure during early December.
4) Continued hope surrounding establishing a partial trade deal with China in the upcoming weeks remains in the back of many traders minds. This should help to support underlying pork demand to China as African swine fever has continued to disrupt domestic production through the country. 4) Firm pressure in wholesale pork values through the week has added additional bearish concerns to the entire complex. Although a lull is expected following Thanksgiving holiday buying, the concern that pork cutout values will not be able to sustain current levels during early December is likely to lead to additional widespread market softness.



#completeherdhealth

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Higher, Lean Hog Contract Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:
I've heard of luck traipsing around Christmas, but I don't know that I recall cattlemen touting that Thanksgiving ever shared that much luck with them. I guess it's a good thing that 2019 is a year full of changes, and this week brings some good changes. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.35 with a weighted average of $42.80 - pushing closer and closer to $43.00. December corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 43.88 points and NASDAQ is up 57.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:
One would have thought that a nasty snowstorm and a shorter week would have left contracts to fend for themselves while families gather around the kitchen table for the Thanksgiving holiday, but that's simply not the case this time around. Live cattle contracts have been fierce about making steady, significant gains the last couple of days and cash trade has kept packers glued to their phones seeing what other packers are bidding and if feeders have sold yet. Nebraska feeders sold dressed cattle for $187 and live cash cattle from $118 to $120. Kansas is holding tough with fats priced at $120 while packers have them bid at $118. Oklahoma sold fats for $117 to $118. Some of the dressed cattle were sold with time for the week of 12/2/19 and 12/16/19. Wednesday heated things up and made the reports interesting to watch come in. Now the question remains, what will Friday do?

Closing boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.40 ($232.24) and select down $1.65 ($210.64) with a movement of 119 loads (63.52 loads of choice, 21.72 loads of select, 8.36 loads of trim and 25.17 loads of ground beef). Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, down 1,000 head from last week and down 6,000 head from a year ago.

*Tuesday's slaughter was revised to 107,000 head, not the 110,000 head stated previously.

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with current asking prices. Given that some feeders have been able to work it and push packers to paying $4.00 higher for live cattle and $3.00 higher for dressed cattle, it's going to make other feeders downright determined to capture their own piece of victory this week.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle contracts may have softened Tuesday, but after latching onto the momentum from the live cattle contracts, feeder cattle contracts were able to close the day significantly higher. January feeders closed $1.70 higher at $143.65, March feeders closed $1.70 higher at $143.92 and April feeders closed $1.57 higher at $145.62.

On an estimated run of 2,341 head (down 820 head from the previous week) Miles City Livestock Commission in Miles City, Montana, sold steers weighing less than 550 pounds mostly steady to $10.00 to $14.00 higher, 550 to 649 pound steers sold steady to $3.00 lower. Heifers weighing 400 to 599 pounds sold mostly $4.00 to $6.00 lower, heifer calves over 600 pounds sold with higher undertones. The barn noted that because most of cattle country was shut down due to the storm, many buyers couldn't make it to the sale. The CME feeder cattle index 11/26/19: up $0.23 at $145.02.

LEAN HOGS:
Something had to give this week and it ended up being the lean hog contracts. December lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $60.67, February lean hogs closed down $0.67 at $67.15 and April hogs closed $0.72 lower at $73.62. Pork cutouts are not available currently due to packer submission problems. The CME lean hog index 11/25/19: down $0.30 at $57.88.


FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. The board may be down, but knowing that producers were able to squeak a little more out of packers is a positive sign. It may be shortcoming knowing that the excitement surrounding the holidays is going to be here and gone before we know it, but Friday's not completely out of luck for this week. 


#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Positive Gains in Livestock Contracts

General Comments
The market may be closed Thursday, but the livestock complex refuses to waste anytime before that. Rallying higher in all three sectors, and even trading higher cash hog prices is a good way to prep for the holiday. Live cattle have yet to really set a tone for this week. If they are to trade cattle, this week it will probably late this afternoon. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.86 points and NASDAQ is up 47.08 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Another successful, positive morning for live cattle contracts as the board pushes higher despite it being a holiday week. December live cattle are up $1.05 at $121.45, February live cattle are up $0.95 at $126.62 and April live cattle are up $0.80 at $126.90. Packers are starting to test the water, placing bids on cattle in Texas and Kansas at $115 where asking prices sit at $118 or better. If trade is to happen it will probably take place later Wednesday afternoon.
Boxed beef cutout values are mixed: choice up $0.74 ($232.58) and select down $1.23 ($211.06) with a morning movement of 66 loads (30.71 loads of choice, 11.81 loads of select, 4.41 loads of trim and 19.27 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts take the lead Wednesday morning pushing the highest gains in the livestock realm. January feeders are up $1.62 at $143.25, March feeders are up $1.47 at $143.70 and April feeders are up $1.22 at $145.27. It wouldn't have been surprising to see cattle contracts depressed with the snow storm that's glazing over feedlot country. Knowing that cattle are going to consume more feed to capture little gain, and that trucking becomes increasingly harder in nasty weather adds another headache to cattle producer's list.
LEAN HOGS
Aggressive kills, a mixed board and stronger cash prices are a nice change of pace for pork producers. December lean hogs are up $0.20 at $61.02, February lean hogs are down $0.20 at $67.62 and April lean hogs are down $0.22 at $74.12. Nearby contracts are having a tough time finding support, but contracts further deferred seem to be rallying modestly. A lot of the nearby contract's struggle could be coming from the never-ending uncertainty surrounding the trade agreement with China.
The projected lean hog index for 11/26/19 is up $0.72 at $58.60, and the actual for 11/25/19 is down $0.30 at $57.88. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.47 with a weighted average of $42.92, ranging from $40.00 to $43.65 on 4,131 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $42.20. Pork cutouts totaled 240.33 loads with 207.20 loads of pork cuts and 33.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are $1.93 lower at $80.33.


#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Subdued Market Activity Expected as Thanksgiving Approaches

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Although limited overall activity is expected to be placed on cattle market direction and activity through most of Wednesday, cash trade will likely be still the main focus of feedlot managers and packers. Only a few cattle have been reported sold across the North Tuesday, which is still likely not enough to establish a good market trend, but the expectation is that prices may not deviate too far from last week during the holiday-shortened week. Both sides are wanting to get cattle on the books by the end of the day in order to not need to return Friday and finish business for the week. But with heavy snow amounts in many areas of the Northern cattle country already and another round of winter weather expected through the next couple of days, selling cattle may be less of a priority than cleaning bunks and lots. Given everything else going on through the week, cash business may be quick to develop as both sides may not be willing to drag the process out through the end of the week. Futures trade is expected to remain generally quiet with mixed trade likely early Wednesday. The ability for nearby contracts to regain most of last week's losses over the last two days is helping to solidify underlying market support going into the holiday weekend. Although markets will remain open Wednesday and Friday, limited long term direction is expected due to light holiday trade. Wednesday slaughter runs are expected at 117,000 head.
Sluggish overall activity is expected leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday. Traders will continue to focus on holiday schedules and overall limited participation both Wednesday and Friday as many traders have already checked out for the weekend. This should keep prices shifts limited, although the limited market activity always opens the door for wide market swings with very little fundamental or technical support behind moves, making trade activity surrounding the holidays unpredictable but usually there is not enough volume to significantly impact long-term market direction. Cash hog bids are expected to $1 lower to $1 higher per cwt lower with most bids steady. Slaughter Wednesday is expected at 486,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 385,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)With the approaching Thanksgiving holiday both sides are expected to expedite the cash market process. This could point to steady to firm price levels in order to secure needed cattle Wednesday in order not to return to the market Friday after the holiday break.1)The significant winter storm system moving through much of cattle country is expected to have a moderate impact on weight gains and animal health. Although many areas are not struggling with significant cold temperatures, the added moisture over the holiday weekend will disrupt normal schedules and impact animal performance.
2)The winter storm moving through much of the country is expected to have a firming impact on futures trade as traders focus on reduced gains and challenges in moving cattle to market over the next several days.2)Winter weather over the holiday weekend will also affect travel activity. This will likely have a direct impact on overall meat demand through the long holiday weekend.
3)Continued focus on the need for China and most Asian countries to secure additional food supplies due to pork production reduced by African swine fever still carries an underlying firmness across the entire hog complex.3)
With nearby lean hog futures holding near long-term support levels, the underlying tone of the market remains weak. The lack of expected trade volume could quickly push prices even lower during the end of the week with little to no fundamental backing due to lack of trade interest.
4)Firm cash hog market trade is developing through the week as the firmness in pork values have started to affect packer prices as they continue to focus on keeping plants full surrounding the holiday week. This could add to cash price support through the upcoming days.4)Growing uncertainty continues to be seen surrounding any developments in trade relations with China and how this may affect pork exports to the country. As the process continues to be pushed down the road with hope that activity is being done in the background, pork prices continue in a weaker holding pattern.



#completeherdhealth

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Close Mostly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:
It may be a holiday week but futures are coasting into the Thanksgiving holiday with a shiny livestock complex -- live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog futures all closed higher.
Two big snow storms float across the continental U.S., making cattlemen cringe at the realization that winter isn't too far away. Sale barns will likely be pretty quiet moving into the holiday weekend, and feedlots unfortunately won't be able to take much of a break on Thanksgiving Thursday as cattle will need extra feed with 10 inches of snow expected in parts of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.68 with a weighted average of $42.47. December corn is down 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 55.21 points and NASDAQ is up 15.44 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts had a nice little rally on the board Tuesday, closing higher in both nearby and deferred contracts. December live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $120.40, February live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $125.67 and April live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $126.10. Light cash cattle trade developed again in parts of Iowa -- live cattle sold for $117.00 and dressed cattle sold for $183.75, which is mostly steady with the week's earlier trade.
Closing boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.40 ($231.84) and select up $0.38 ($212.29) with a movement of 143 loads (91.03 loads of choice cuts, 18.44 loads of select cuts, 11.77 loads of trim and 22.12 loads of ground beef). Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head - down 8,000 from last week and down 10,000 head compared to a year ago.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. Given that cash trade is $1.00 higher for live cattle and steady money for dressed cattle, this week's trading range may already be cutout. If it was a normal week there would still be plenty of time to cutout new prices, but given that the week is cut short, prices will likely stay steady to $1.00 higher.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts were unable to close the day completely higher as nearby contracts dipped down into lower prices near closing. January feeders closed $0.35 lower at $141.62, March feeders closed $0.12 lower at $142.22 and April feeders closed $0.30 higher at $144.05.
On an estimated run of 1,144 head (down 2,100 head from the previous week) at Sioux Falls Regional Auction in Worthing, South Dakota, sold steers calves 500 to 550 pounds and 600 to 650 pounds $5.00 to $10.00 higher. Heifers under 600 pounds sold with lower undertones while heifers 600 to 650 pounds sold with higher undertones. It was noted that there were more farmer feeders in the crowd this week that were interested in buying packages of calves. The CME feeder cattle index 11/25/19: down $0.54 at $144.79.
LEAN HOGS:
A steady upward trend in the board is a nice way to close the day! The spot December contract weakened just a touch and closed $0.20 lower at $60.82, while February lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $67.82 and April lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $74.35. Pork cutouts totaled 317.31 loads with 255.57 loads of pork cuts and 61.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.75 at $82.26. The CME lean hog index 11/22/19: down $1.58 at $58.18.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Given that packers have all the supply they need and cutout values etch lower, packers aren't going to be too optimistic about shelling out more money for hogs this week.

#completeherdhealth

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - A Mixed Livestock Complex

General Comments
Too much gain on Monday? Checked out for Thanksgiving? Or slowing down trade progression all seem to be fair questions as the livestock complex spins a different attitude on Tuesday. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 62.71 points and NASDAQ is up 24.09 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle markets pull hard to keep some contracts trading higher and at midday are successfully doing so. December live cattle are up $0.05 at $119.75, February live cattle are down $0.12 at $125.02 and April live cattle are up $0.10 at $125.32. More and more attentions gravitates toward the February live cattle contract which is only 25 cents shy of rallying the April board.
Light cattle trade of $117.00 -- $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, has surfaced in parts of Iowa, along with a few head of dressed cattle for $184 in Iowa as well. Asking prices still sit in the South at $118 to $119 -- $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices in the North range from $188 to $190, $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
There is no Fed Cattle Exchange this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Midday boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.07 ($232.17) and select up $1.74 ($213.65) with a light movement of 58 loads (34.25 loads of choice, 9.63 loads of select, 8.26 loads of trim and 6.16 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Nearby feeder cattle contracts struggle to trade higher Tuesday morning while deferred feeder cattle keep strong gains. January feeders are down $0.77 at $141.20, March feeders are down $0.70 at $141.65 and April feeders are down $0.32 at $143.42. Still keeping well within Monday's trade markets, Tuesday is trading lower for the most part but it's positive to see the market not breaking through Monday's effort of higher prices.
LEAN HOGS
Jumping on the bandwagon of lower prices with weaker cutout values, the lean hog sector struggles both on the board and in the countryside. December lean hogs are down $0.22 at $60.80, February lean hogs are down $0.30 at $67.45 and April lean hogs are down $0.20 at $73.67.
The projected lean hog index for 11/25/19 is down $0.30 at $57.88 and the lean hog index for 11/22/19 came back $1.58 lower at $58.18. Hog prices on the National Direct Morning Hog Report are $0.64 higher with a weighted average of $42.43, ranging from $41.50 to $43.00 on 9,464 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $42.18. Pork cutouts totaled 181.75 loads with 146.07 loads of pork cuts and 35.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are $0.87 lower at $83.14.


#completeherdhealth

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Traders Focus Turns to Winter Storms and Holiday Trade Apathy

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cash cattle markets remain at a standstill Tuesday morning. Any other week, it would be expected that packer bids and asking prices are undeveloped on Tuesday as both sides seem content to wait until midweek or later before stepping into the complex. But with Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and both sides desiring to accomplish trade before the break and not have to return Friday in order to fulfill procurement lists, interest from both sides is expected to quickly develop over the next two days. The firmness in futures trade Monday helped to create a sense of stability through the complex following last week's market tumble, especially in feeder cattle trade. But the focus is now moving toward the limited trade volume through the rest of the week and potential winter storms developing in much of the upper Midwest. The change in weather conditions is not only expected to impact overall movement of cattle, but daily gains will likely be significantly hindered due to snow and cold weather conditions. The firmness in wholesale beef values, helped to create some sense of relief following the pullback in prices through the end of last week. Traders are focusing on the ability to continue strong underling support in wholesale beef values and generally strong domestic demand through the end of the year. Although tighter overall supplies are still expected through early 2020, the volatility associated with holiday trade could add increased and potential wide market swings over the next couple of months. Tuesday slaughter runs are expected at 118,000 head.
Market stability in lean hog futures complex helped to create a sense of support through the entire complex during early-week trade. Given that overall volume and trade interest is expected to remain limited through the holiday week, price levels have a potential to make erratic and sharp market swings without logical fundamental backing. In other words, price shifts over the next few days don't always make sense from a market perspective due to the low volume of activity in the complex. This is being countered by traders attempting to build off of last week's market lows, and so far remaining successful at sparking limited to moderate buyer interest through the upcoming holidays. Strong holiday demand continues to be seen with local meat cases doing their best to add a ham to the shopping list for the Thanksgiving meal. The ability to continue to spark moderate to strong wholesale pork support is expected to stimulate additional stability over the next couple of days. The expected winter storm systems moving through much of the country is not expected to heavily affect overall production levels as most hogs are raised indoors, but large snow amounts and closed roads may limit the ability to move hogs to packing plants, potentially affecting overall slaughter numbers through the week. Cash hog bids are expected to steady to $1 per cwt lower with most bids steady to 50 cents lower. Slaughter Tuesday is expected at 488,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)Firm support in wholesale beef values redeveloped during early-week trade, helping to spark additional underlying interest through the entire complex in what could be a sluggish rest of the week.1)Limited holiday-week trade activity is expected to create some uneasiness through the entire complex. The lack of volume often keeps markets from moving in a rational manner, sometimes allowing for wide market swings with limited to no warning.
2)Sharp gains in feeder cattle futures quickly pushed prices above $140 per cwt. If current support holds over the next couple of days, this move may have established technical support levels at $139.27 per cwt in spot month contracts allowing for increased underlying support to rebuild through the upcoming sessions.2)The expected winter storm will not only affect production and on farm activities, but the potential to limit holiday travel could have a significant impact on overall meat demand through the end of the week, impacting beef clearance as well as turkey and pork demand.
3)Light buying developed during early-week trade. The move higher had less to do with actual price changes, and more to do with the ability to push prices consistently higher. Continued support through the week and the ability to place distance between last week's lows will continue to spark underlying support through the entire complex.3)Overall uncertainty when it comes to short and long term export sales to China continues to keep markets on edge. Even though overall pork production continues to be heavily affected in many Asian countries, the question if these countries will replace it with imported pork is still uncertain.
4)Wholesale pork prices continue to firm ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Domestic demand for pork continues to remain strong with increased demand likely to continue to build through the holiday season.4)The inability to move prices sharply away from recent support levels is creating concern that buyer support and market momentum may be limited during the holiday week.



#completecalfcare

Monday, November 25, 2019

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Markets Close Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock contracts heard the Monday morning bell sound and off they went. Feeder cattle markets broke hard right out of the gate, live cattle contracts fell closely behind and lean hog contracts heated up near closing time. Hog prices are lower on the National Daily Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.03 with a weighted average of $41.78. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 190.85 points and NASDAQ is up 112.61 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Holiday weeks are typically tough on livestock markets, but Monday's board seems somewhat eager to blaze trails early this week. December live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $119.70, February live cattle closed $1.30 higher at $125.15 and April live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $125.22. Cash cattle business didn't spark any interest Monday. Packers inquired about cattle, but no bids were placed and no asking prices were set.
Closing boxed beef prices are up: choice up $0.67 ($233.24) and select up $0.59 ($211.91) with a boxed beef movement of 130 loads (73.27 loads of choice, 14.84 loads of select, 20.43 loads of trim and 21.56 load ground beef). Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head - steady with a week ago, up 4,000 head from a year ago.
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. If cash cattle trades this week, the best guess is that it will be for steady money. The fact that packers inquired about cattle Monday, but opted not to place bids or act quickly, may be an indication that packers either intend to sit quiet this week or wait things out.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle markets had one heck of a day. Monday's market rallied back almost all of what Friday lost and closed higher in both nearby and deferred contracts. January feeders closed $2.67 higher at $141.95, March feeders closed $2.72 higher at $142.32 and April feeders closed up $2.72 at $143.82.
Last Friday, on an estimated run of 2,780 head (down 223 head from the previous week), Lexington Livestock Market in Lexington, Nebraska, sold steers compared to the previous week under 600 pounds for steady to $3.00 higher and steers 600 to 700 pounds sold for $7.00 lower. Heifers under 500 pounds sold $5.00 higher and heifers 500 to 650 pounds sold for $4.00 lower. Demand was moderate to good from the buyers in the crowd. The CME feeder cattle index 11/22/19: down $0.15 at $145.33.
LEAN HOGS:
Keeping in tune with last week's ending trend of higher board closings, lean hog contracts closed mostly higher again Monday. December lean hogs closed down $0.30 at $60.92, February lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $67.75 and April lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $74.00. Pork cutouts totaled 340.82 loads with 305.29 loads of pork cuts and 35.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.94 at $84.01. The CME lean hog index 11/21/19: up $0.22 at $59.76.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. It could be a tough week for hog producers as packers anxiously await a day off this week knowing that their coolers are full and that any extra bump in holiday demand is probably all but used up. A tick higher or a tick lower wouldn't be unusual or crazy to see this week as mainly steady is the best guess for this week's hog prices.

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Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Tick Upward; Lean Hog Market Looks Lower

General Comments
Seeming to be unshaken from Friday's Cattle on Feed Report, cattle contracts push higher and significantly higher in feeder cattle contracts. Monday's uncertainty surrounding the Phase One trade agreement hasn't thrown any friendly bones to the lean hog market, and the market continues to trade lower Monday morning. December corn is up 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 115.80 points and NASDAQ is up 98.77 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle markets are taking Monday with stride and shake off any bearish thought about Friday's Cattle on Feed Report and continue to rally behind feeder cattle gains. December live cattle are up $1.15 at $119.82, February live cattle are up $1.47 at $125.32 and April live cattle are up $1.17 at $125.35. Cash cattle trade will most likely take place early this week given that most of the market place will be checked out for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday.
According to the Friday afternoon mandatory reports weekly trade volumes were as follows: Kansas 17,263; Nebraska 31,873; Texas 5,829; Colorado not available due to confidentiality; Iowa 27,481. This week's estimated show lists are mostly higher: Texas 90,467 (down 1,417), Kansas 87,392 (up 6,295), and Nebraska/Colorado 63,429 (up 2,130).
Boxed beef cutouts are mixed: choice up $1.24 ($233.81) and select down $0.19 ($211.13) with a movement of 70 loads (39.83 loads of choice, 9.02 loads of select, 16.36 loads of trim and 4.53 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Goodbye Friday negativity, hello Monday prosperity! Feeder cattle markets though unexpected to hold positivity in sale barns prices this week, are kicking Friday's downward trade to the curb and taking massive gains upward. January feeder cattle are up $3.85 at $143.12, March feeders are up $3.65 at $143.25, and April feeders are up $3.55 at $144.65. Given that Monday is taking colossal strides higher, it wouldn't be unlikely to see Monday's close somewhere in the middle of the day's trade to moderate such gains.
LEAN HOGS
Pork producers are surefire ready for a holiday break and hope that the last couple of months of 2019 can come and go so that 2020 can bring a better flare of luck. Depressed by negative chatter about the Phase One trade agreement and lavish supply, hog contracts trade lower Monday morning. December lean hogs are down $0.32 at $60.90, February lean hogs are down $0.47 at $67.17 and April lean hogs are down $0.55 at $73.15.
The projected lean hog index for 11/22/19 is down $1.58 at $58.18, and the actual index for 11/21/19 is up $0.22 at $59.76. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.04 with a weighted average of $41.85, ranging from $40.00 to $43.00 on 10,450 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $42.12. Pork cutouts totaled 156.29 loads with 137.53 loads of pork cuts and 18.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.88 at $84.95.


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Monday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Feeder Cattle Weakness Brings Additional Selling Concerns

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cash cattle trade is expected to remain subdued early Monday morning with show list distribution and inventory taking the main priority of the day. With the Thanksgiving holiday only days away, it is expected that both sides will get busy with needed sales sooner than later. Although there is the possibility that trade will be pushed off until Black Friday after Thanksgiving, it is expected that most of the needed business will be in the books by late Wednesday, meaning that bids and asking prices will likely develop earlier this week than typically seen. Futures trade is mixed with the general tone of the market week following pressure late last week. The inability to bring any sense of stability into the feeder cattle complex is creating some additional uncertainty about current price levels through the end of the month. The cattle on feed report is generally neutral as the strong increases over year-ago levels in both cattle placed and total cattle on feed is below market estimates, but showing increases none the less. This will once again put additional focus on the early direction in feeder cattle futures, which have been unable to find any sense of support over the last several days. With the abbreviated trading schedule this week, overall volume through the entire complex is likely to remain subdued, which may be what is needed in order to stimulate additional buyers to once again step back into the eroding market complex. Monday slaughter runs are expected at 118,000 head.
Early trade is expected to remain mixed to mostly lower across lean hog futures following Friday's cold storage report. The increased amount of pork available on the market points to the underlying continued supply level of market ready hogs as packers continue to run full throttle due to increased margin levels. Although cold storage report numbers are typically overlooked, the combination of increased pork building as well as continued concern of long-term activity with China may add to the volatility in the market through the shortened holiday week. Cash hog bids are expected to be steady to $1 per cwt lower with most bids steady to weak. Slaughter Monday is expected at 489,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)Continued cash cattle market support through the end of last week is helping to push increased focus on the ability to keep the entire market current through the last quarter of the year with tighter supplies expected during early 2020.1)Cattle placement and total on-feed numbers posted strong gains from year-ago levels. Although this is not a total shock, the growth, especially in feedlot placements may add to the already weak market structure.
2)Even though feeder cattle placement numbers grew significantly in October, the fact that actual placements were well below market estimates should help to solidify early-week support.2)Strong triple-digit losses in beef cutout values Friday is adding to the underlying softness across the entire cattle futures complex. This may add even more momentum for early-week losses.
3)Strong pork cutout gains developed late last week, once again focusing on the ability to sustain underlying buyer support and focus on long-term movement of product through the end of the year.3)
Continue pressure in cash hog values is developing, which is widening the gap between cash prices and wholesale pork values, allowing for even larger packer margins in a generally weak market structure.
4)Increased buying by China for next year was seen in last week's export sales report with purchases for 2020 continuing to build, which solidifies that the share of needed pork coming from the U.S. is starting to grow, and gives hope for additional purchases over the coming months.4)Pork supplies continue to build in the latest cold storage report. This is causing some concerns that overall supplies are still outweighing overall domestic and export demand and may continue through the foreseeable future.




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