Well it would appear that our Thursday
projections were correct - even with wishy-washy news lines about the
U.S./China trade agreement, lean hogs have subsided to trading merely
steady to a touch lower, and feeder cattle markets have done much of the
same giving the live cattle contracts the limelight for the day while
cash cattle markets roll up their sleeves and push for higher prices
again this week. December corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and December
soybean meal is down $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down
40.81 points and NASDAQ is up 21.36 points.
LIVE CATTLE
"How tough are ya?," the question of the day.
For weeks now live cattle contracts have traded higher and cash cattle
markets have been able to secure $1.00 to $2.00 gains pretty much every
week. It seems as if feeders are starting to put two and two together
and wondering why they have been modest in their asking prices and only
dared to take $2.00 each week, when slaughter has been relatively
aggressive, and packers continue to profit from stout boxed beef prices.
Given that some asking prices in the South are placed at $116 to $117,
if fats end up selling in that ball park, or close to it, it would be
fair to say feeders played tough, and feeders played smart this week.
Given that we know that there is a correction bound to happen any time
between now and the first of the year, lavish gains in the cash cattle
market may be hard to secure during the correction. Not to mention that
packers have some cattle committed for delivery for the weeks of
11/18/19 and 11/25/19 making cash cattle advancements tougher in those
periods especially given that they also dance around the Thanksgiving
holiday.
December live cattle are trading $0.52 higher at
$119.52, February live cattle are trading $0.42 higher at $125.27 and
April live cattle are up $0.30 at $126.17. A light to moderate live
trade has developed in the South at $114 to $115, $2.00 to $3.00 higher
than last week's weighted averages. Northern live cattle are at trading
$114 to $116, steady to $2 higher than last week's weighted average
basis Nebraska. Some asking prices remain firm around $116 to $117 in
the South, and $184 to $185 in the North.
Midday boxed beef prices are higher: choice up
$0.96 ($239.25) and select up $0.49 ($213.51) with a light movement of
69 loads (41.28 loads of choice, 17.01 loads of select, zero loads of
trim and 10.59 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Letting cash cattle and live cattle contracts
take the show Friday, feeder cattle markets are trading mostly mixed
though they are appearing to warm up as the noon hour approaches.
November feeders are up $0.15 at $146.92, January feeders are up $0.05
at $145.82 and March feeders are down $0.07 at $145.42.
LEAN HOGS
Disgusted there's no clear path to a signed
trade agreement and that the U.S. has more hogs than normal, the lean
hog sector is trading moderately lower and looks at the door ready and
eager for the weekend. December lean hogs are trading $0.30 lower at
$64.00, February lean hogs are down $0.45 at $73.32 and April lean hogs
are down $0.32 at $79.82.
The projected lean hog index for 11/07/19 is up
$0.10 at $60.29, and the actual lean hog index for 11/06/19 is $60.19,
up $0.03. Hog prices on the National Direct Morning Hog Report are
unchanged with a weighted average of $45.24, ranging from $41.00 to
$46.00 on 4,920 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $46.24. Pork
cutouts totaled 127.43 loads with 106.07 loads of pork cuts and 21.36
loads of trim. Pork cutouts values are up $2.10 at $82.74.
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