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Friday, May 29, 2020

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Fall to Friday's Pressure; Lean Hogs Take the Stage

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into the weekend, livestock participants are going to be carefully watching slaughter speeds, Trump's relations with China and cash cattle prices. Hog prices were lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.42 with a weighted average of $36.92 on 5,578 head sold. July corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 17.53 points and NASDAQ is up 120.88 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $2.03, August live cattle up $2.28; August feeder cattle up $6.55, September feeder cattle up $5.60; June lean hogs down $1.93, July lean hogs up $1.13.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle contracts closed with losses greater than $1 throughout the complex. June live cattle closed $1.75 lower at $99.72, August live cattle closed $1.57 lower at $99.60 and October live cattle closed $1.37 lower at $101.42. For the market's moral, it was energizing to see the nearby contracts trade above $100 earlier this week, but heading into the first week of June, all eyes are going to be on cash cattle prices. As packers continue to work on the backlog of cattle, and as boxed beef prices drop, which cuts away at packer's profits, the elevated cash cattle bids will most likely weaken in the near future. There was another round of light cash cattle trade through Friday, all within the ranges established earlier in the week. Live cattle sold for $115 to $120 and dressed cattle traded for $174 to $190 this week.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be 83,000 head.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $6.22 ($363.34) and select down $4.02 ($340.07) with a movement of 115 loads (54.29 loads of choice, 19.87 loads of select, 22.00 loads of trim and 18.89 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Seeing that packers have the Department of Justice hot on their case, they are going to be more active in the cash cattle market than what would historically take place. Its inevitable that cash prices will weaken, but whether that's next week or sometime later in June is hard to pinpoint.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle contracts closed lower but felt more pressure in deferred contracts than nearby contracts. August feeder cattle closed $0.15 lower at $135.35, September feeder cattle closed $0.50 lower at $135.75 and October feeder cattle closed $0.75 lower at $136.02. Heading into the upcoming weeks, feeder cattle prices will be very watchful of how cash cattle trades.

At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota, compared to last week, a higher undertone was noted on steers that weighted up to 700 pounds. Steers weighing 700 to 1000 pounds were $3.00 to $9.00 higher, steers over 1000 pounds were $3.00 higher. An unevenly steady undertone was noted on heifers up to 700 pounds. Heifers weighing 700 pounds and up were $1.00 to $3.00 higher. Demand was excellent and there were many load lots in the offering. The CME feeder cattle index 5/28/2020: unavailable at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog contracts surprised everyone after the noon hour as contracts took a turn and closed the day higher. Feeling anxious about Trump's announcements Friday afternoon, the market performed cautiously but was able to ultimately close higher. June lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $56.85, July lean hogs closed $1.37 higher at $57.02 and August lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $56.72. Pork cutouts had a huge day, totaling 544.45 loads with 499.25 loads of pork cuts and 45.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.26, $88.20. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 414,000 head, 34,000 head more than a week ago and 59,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be 302,000 head. The CME lean hog index 5/27/2020: up $0.42, $62.95.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Built up supply will continue to pressure the market until thoroughly processed through.


#completeherdhealth
#completeherdhealth


Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Head Lower into Noon Hour

General Comments
As most people jump with joy and sip their coffee thinking, "Thank God it's Friday," the livestock contracts have merely done the opposite. As tensions rise between China and Hong Kong and some packing plants are seeing a second round of COVID-19 breakout, the board has seemed to throw in the towel and is giving back some of the ground gained earlier in the week. July corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 264.52 points and NASDAQ is down 14.30 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts aren't taking Friday's pressure with ease as contracts dip $1.00 to $2.80 lower. June live cattle are down $2.32 at $99.15, August live cattle are down $2.75 at $98.45 and October live cattle are down $2.42 at $100.35. The market continues to be engulfed with uncertainty as contracts fall and the live cattle basis grows, nearby contracts dip below $100 but yet slaughter continues to press onwards and forward, and cash cattle prices are elevated to $120? Fundamentals are key to a healthy marketplace, and it's evident that through this time fundamentals have been thrown to the wayside. Some light cash cattle trade has popped up from a major in Nebraska who bought dressed cattle for $190.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $3.99 ($365.57) and select down $0.63 ($343.46) with a movement of 64 loads (26.48 loads of choice, 13.95 loads of select, 14.71 loads of trim and 9.11 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts are trying to ride the wave that Friday has been floating on without closing limit lower, but as the day processes contracts are falling more and more. August feeders are down $2.30 at $133.20, September feeders are down $2.20 at $134.05 and October feeders are down $2.20 at $134.57. Sale barns have had phenomenal sales in the last couple of weeks despite the board's indecisiveness. Heading into the heart of early summer calf specialty sales, the feeder cattle market needs live cattle prices to hold strong and for the board to rally.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog complex is trading somewhat lower but given the news circulating throughout the day, the board is maintaining quite well. June lean hogs are down $0.62 at $56.30, July lean hogs are down $0.77 at $54.87 and August lean hogs are down $0.57 at $54.45. Late Thursday afternoon Tyson announced that they would be closing their Storm Lake plant in Iowa for the rest of the week due to COVID-19. When at full capacity the plant processed 17,250 a day. After performing a deep-clean this week the plant is scheduled to resume business next week. Hopefully this isn't a trend that's about to take off again -- fingers crossed.
The projected lean hog index for 5/28/2020 is down $1.70 at $61.25 and the actual index for 5/27/2020 is up $0.42 at $62.95. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.61 with a weighted average of $36.73, ranging from $29.00 to $38.25 on 4,931 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $36.31. Pork cutouts total 396.22 loads with 364.26 loads of pork cuts and 31.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.37, $90.83.

#completeherdhealth

Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Defend Strong Gains

General Comments:
Limited cash market direction is expected Friday with some additional light trade possible before the end of the week. But given that cash market trade has slowly developed through the entire week, the overall price ranges are likely already set. The fact that the ranges are established can give some support to the market, but with the huge ranges seen over the last month, there is little confidence that additional trade will develop Friday. Trade has been seen generally from $110 to $120 per cwt live basis, and $174 to $190 dressed. This is generally steady with last week, but it is hard to pinpoint where an average price may fall given a gap big enough to drive a truck through. Given the support in futures trade, it is expected that most end of the week prices will end up near the top end of the recent range, but this is speculation at this point, with no firm numbers to back that up until early next week when overall sales totals are seen. Futures trade is focused on defending recent gains following the holiday weekend. With spot contracts rallying $3.75 per cwt so far during the week, contracts have moved above the $100 per cwt and is trading at the highest level since February. The ability to end the month of May on a high note would carry increased momentum into June trade. Friday slaughter is expected at 110,000 head.
Lean hog futures continue to look for any sign of support following Thursday's near limit losses. The focus on issues between China and Hong Kong and response by the U.S. continues to be the main focus in the lean hog complex as it may continue to focus on eroding export markets to the country. Although historically, China imports of pork have been the major focus, and Hong Kong just a drop in the bucket compared to overall totals, the potential that further strain between U.S. and China will develop is significantly impacting the lean hog complex. Although the previous two weeks of export pork sales to China have pointed to significant losses, traders are once again looking for holiday-delayed data Friday morning for additional direction seen before the Memorial Day holiday. This could spark underlying weakness through the hog complex Friday and lead to further potential early June weakness. Cash hog bids are expected $1 lower to $1 per cwt higher with most bids steady to $1 lower. Slaughter Friday is expected at 421,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 316,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Nearby live cattle futures have posted three-month highs as underlying buyer support continues to focus on the ability to shift prices higher through the end of the month. This is likely to spark renewed underlying support going into early June.
1)Sharply higher retail beef values have created sticker shock for many consumers. This has also created limited menus for some restaurants as they slowly reopen following the shutdowns. Reduced overall demand for beef products due to the higher prices could spark a ripple effect through the entire cattle market in the coming weeks and months.
2)
Strong support in cash cattle trade seen through the end of May continues to hold a significant premium to futures trade. Continued growth in demand and retail beef values is likely to keep cash values firm through the near future.
2)
Wholesale boxed beef values continue to steadily slide lower. This is creating mixed market direction following the firmness in cash and futures prices, while beef values quickly back away from historic highs.
3)
Traders are looking for positive support from the weekly Export Sales report Friday morning. Not only will sales to China be the focus, but traders will also focus heavily on movement to Mexico and Canada.
3)
Cash hog values have continued to show increased weakness as packers continue to create more scheduled deliveries of hogs. This recent weakness is expected to be accelerated by the sharp futures losses during the last half of the week.
4)
Pork cutout values firmed slightly Thursday, giving hope that even though strong pressure is seen in cash and futures trade, the focus on food service business reopening will help to spark additional price support in pork prices.
4)
Additional weak export sales numbers from China in the holiday-delayed report released Friday morning could spark more widespread weakness in futures trade at the end of the week.



#completecalfcare

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Trade Lower

General Comments
We knew that Thursday would be an uphill battle for the livestock contracts as sheer trading volume is thin and coming off two consecutively higher days would leave the third day in the week with a lot of pressure to trudge through. It's a blessing that the industry is prioritizing slaughter in both the hog and cattle sectors, but with cutouts starting to correct, getting the industry back to some fashion of 'normal' doesn't mean that the path getting there is beautiful and steadily higher. July corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 131.82 points and NASDAQ is up 75.00 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts are trading mostly lower following suit with the rest of the livestock contracts. June live cattle are up $0.30 at $101.10, August live cattle are up $0.07 at $100.80 and October live cattle are down $0.40 at $102.45. The support in nearby contracts has only developed since midmorning but keeping those contracts above $100 is key for the market's morale. Cash cattle trade has been mostly quiet though some trade has developed in Nebraska. Dressed cattle have traded for $180 to $190 (all steady with the week's trend) though some cattle have been scheduled for delivery next week.
Boxed beef cutouts are lower: choice down $6.56 ($371.21) and select down $2.85 ($347.35) with a movement of 99 loads (44.18 loads of choice, 13.16 loads of select, 19.72 loads of trim and 22.35 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts have trailed lower feeling the resistance like the rest of the livestock complex. August feeder cattle are down $0.02 at $133.97, September feeder cattle are down $0.22 at $134.85 and October feeder cattle are down $0.30 at $135.62. Seeing that the market's regression is mild at this point, feeder cattle sales throughout the countryside shouldn't be overly affected by the day's weakness.
LEAN HOGS
Lean hog contracts tumbled the furthest dropping prices back $2.00 to $3.00 and without much caution in doing so. June lean hogs are down $3.00 at $57.17, July lean hogs are down $3.67 at $55.60 and August lean hogs are down $3.05 at $54.55. Cash prices will most likely be lower again this afternoon seeing that the board is lower and that slaughter continues to work through the market's supply.
The projected lean hog index for 5/27/2020 is up $0.42 at $62.95 and the actual index for 5/26/2020 is up $0.23 at $62.53. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.88 with a weighted average of $35.94, ranging from $25.00 to $38.08 on 4,277 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $36.08. Pork cutouts total 143.13 loads with 124.13 loads of pork cuts and 19.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.30, $95.12.


#completecalfcare

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Tensions With China Continue to Rise

General Comments:
Cash cattle trade has continued to trickle in through the week and some additional movement is likely to slowly develop through the end of the week. Prices continue to hover in similar ranges as last week, but wide price ranges will still make it hard to determine where the average price may be. Ranges from $110 to $120 live and $175 to $190 per cwt dressed have been reported through the week, and likely any additional trade will be within this range. Overall cash activity has continued to see larger than usual amounts of head sold, which means packers are passing higher prices on to cattle feeders, knowing the Department of Justice Investigation is taking place. Even with firm triple-digit gains in live cattle futures the last two sessions, nearby contracts continue to hover at the $100 per cwt level. Although these price thresholds are important, as it is a major breakthrough to move back to triple-digit levels, a strong disconnect between futures trade and cash markets continues with strong basis levels still holding. It is unlikely that these basis levels will continue to defy the traditional ranges long term, but until the tensions of wide gaps between cattle prices and beef values narrow, little "normalcy" is likely to be in the cattle market. These current market price relationships makes it hard to make long term plans and risk management decisions given the unusual shifts in markets over the last couple of months. Thursday slaughter is expected at 112,000 head.
The firmness in lean hog futures early in the week seems to be uncertain with growing concerns surrounding China's dealing with Hong Kong and whether this will have an impact on trade relations not only with China but with Hong Kong in the near future. Mixed trade is expected to develop early Thursday, although the potential for wide market swings based on the emotions surrounding the potential shifts in export pork demand could bring about increased uncertainty. Although packer plants continue to steadily increase production levels, slaughter is still expected to remain well below pre-coronavirus levels, and this will likely continue over the upcoming weeks and even months given long-term changes in plant layouts to create more space between workers. But the fact that daily production continues to increase should not be overlooked, and could create long-term support as many feel that the worst is behind us. Cash hog bids are expected $1 lower to $1 per cwt higher with most bids steady to $1 lower. Slaughter Thursday is expected at 415,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 276,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Live cattle futures have moved above $100 per cwt in all contract months, as renewed support has moved through the complex during early week trade. The ability to hold above $100 per cwt should create additional buyer support through the complex, sparking further market gains during early June.
1)
Continued strong pressure in beef values have continued to bring more focus on the disconnected market levels seen in the last month. It is uncertain how price connection will redevelop in the near future as these price relationships become more normalized over the coming weeks.
2)
Cash cattle trade continues to point toward increased price support as the week continues with prices hovering at $120 per cwt midweek with potential additional trade likely the next couple of days.
2)
Higher retail beef values that have started to sweep through the market the last couple of weeks has the potential to significantly curb consumer buying patterns given the "sticker shock" of most beef values. This could cause significant shifts in demand during summer months.
3)
Firm gains in deferred lean hog trade has helped to spark additional underlying support in the complex. This is causing increased buying interest into the market and adding overall volume to the market.
3)
Cash hog values have continued to show increased weakness as packers create more scheduled deliveries of hogs, relying less on the need for daily cash buying as longer-term schedules are being implemented once again.
4)
Continued gains in pork processing numbers has helped to relieve some of the long-term concerns about further shutdowns in the industry. Slaughter numbers are still far from normal, but well above recent lows, and increasing daily.
4)
Significant concerns remain about how the U.S. government will approach China and trade issues following the uncertainty and strain in Hong Kong. This has the potential to totally derail the trade agreement and upset pork exports to both China and Hong Kong.



#completecalfcare

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Support Pushes Through Closing

GENERAL COMMENTS:
As Wednesday comes to close, the market hangs its hat on another day of positive movement in the futures market. Thursday will pressure the market and see if there's enough support to keep moving higher or if the traders who are invested are good with where the market sits. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.57 with a weighted average of $37.82 on 5,363 head. July corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 553.16 points and NASDAQ is up 72.14 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex took advantage of Wednesday's rallied support and closed above $100 throughout the complex. June live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $100.80, August live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $100.72 and October live cattle closed $1.22 higher at $102.85. The concerning facet of the market is that total open interest is dwindling and cash cattle prices seem to be pulling up the reins and keeping the week at steady for a change. Cash cattle traded Wednesday afternoon all throughout the five-state area. In Kansas live cattle sold for $115 to $120. In Nebraska dressed cattle sold for $178 to $190, with quite a few cattle at $180. Texas sold some live cattle for $120. Iowa sold dressed cattle for $174 to $190. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $7.72 ($377.77) and select down $9.82 ($350.20) with a movement of 175 loads (90.76 loads of choice, 24.38 loads of select, 14.11 loads of trim and 45.99 loads of ground beef).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Seeing that the week has already had a large volume of cash cattle trade, prices will most likely continue to fall within the ranges already set.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts liked the day's window of opportunity and took it without looking back. Fat cattle prices are trading steady and the live cattle contracts are trading higher as well, which gave the feeder cattle contracts enough support and security that higher cards were to be played Wednesday. August feeders closed $0.72 higher at $134.02, September feeders closed $0.65 stronger at $135.07 and October feeders closed $0.60 higher at $135.92. At Winter Livestock in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 750 to 850 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher, steers weighing more than 850 pounds sold $2.00 to $3.00 lower. Feeder heifers weighing 650 to 700 pounds and 850 to 900 pounds sold $1.00 to $2.00 higher, heifers weighing 750 to 800 pounds sold steady to $1.00 lower. Slaughter cows and bulls sold $1.00 to $2.00 higher. The CME feeder cattle index 5/26/2020: down $0.33, $126.11.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog contracts felt some pressure in the nearby contracts but closed mostly higher for the day. June lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $60.17, July lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $59.30 and August lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $57.60. Cash prices and cutout values are getting pinched as the heavy supply of market-ready hogs continues to be a burden. Pork cutout total 403.70 loads with 357.78 loads of pork cuts and 45.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $8.62, $88.82. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 415,000 head, 18,000 head more than a week ago and 46,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/22/2020: down $1.15, $62.30.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to slightly lower. Seeing a downward will most likely be the case in the hog industry as packers are processing more and more meat trying to get back to a current market.


#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Continuing to Rally Support

General Comments
Heading into Wednesday's noon hour the livestock complex continues to press full-steam ahead and trade higher in all three contracts. The market has seems to be thriving coming back to the week with energy and optimism.
July corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 253.49 points and NASDAQ is down 70.36 points.
LIVE CATTLE
It's been a while in the making but Wednesday morning nearby live cattle contracts were finally able to break past the $100 resistance and trade higher throughout the entire marketplace. June live cattle are up $1.47 at $100.82, August live cattle are up $1.35 at $100.60 and October live cattle are up $1.20 at $102.82. The cash cattle market continues to trade mostly steady with last week's trade and some light trade has developed in nearly every feeding region. Southern live cattle are trading at $120 live and dressed cattle in the North are selling for $190. Asking prices are around $120 to $125, and dressed cattle are priced at $190 to $195.
The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 1,164 head, four lots in Texas, totaling 801 head, and three lots in Kansas, totaling 363 head. No cattle actually sold. Asking prices ranged from $115 to $120. All were set for one-to-17-day delivery.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $5.92 ($379.57) and select down $7.11 ($352.91) with a movement of 102 loads (56.65 loads of choice, 12.18 loads of select, 7.18 loads of trim and 25.88 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Heading into the second day of the week and the second day of a notable rally for the feeder cattle contracts. August feeders are up $1.12 at $134.42, September feeders are up $0.90 at $135.32 and October feeders are up $0.82 at $136.15. If the feeder cattle contracts continue to rally the market will face some looming resistance around $140, though the market has to gain $4.00 to $6.00 before it has to worry about that. Thankfully this uptick in prices is at the perfect time for sale barns as prices seem to be gaining slowly but surely throughout the countryside.
LEAN HOGS
Hog prices are rallying modestly, and their slow progression seems to bring a sense of assurance into the marketplace. June lean hogs are up $0.25 at $60.75, July lean hogs are up $0.27 at $59.85 and August lean hogs are up $0.92 at $58.07. cattle contracts may be rallying at somewhat of a stronger pace, but the nearby lean hog contracts have been able to rally over the last five trading days recovering a fair bid of position in the contracts.
The projected lean hog index for 5/25/2020 is up $0.23 at $62.53 and the actual index for 5/22/2020 is down $1.15 at $62.30. Hog prices aren't available on the National Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. Pork cutouts total 249.09 loads with 225.27 loads of pork cuts and 24.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $6.16, $91.28.


#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Trade Building on Post-Holiday Futures Support

General Comments:
Cash cattle activity remains generally sluggish going into midweek with light trade developing in several areas Tuesday. Asking prices are expected to remain around $120 per cwt live basis and $200 dressed, but the overall movement in the cash cattle trade focused on wide trading ranges with some cattle trade hitting the top of last week's cash market prices. A market trend cannot be established by the movement of cattle Tuesday, but it does give an indication of the variability likely to continue through the market. Live cattle are reported sold from $110 to $120 per cwt, while dressed cattle ranged from $174 to $190 per cwt. The variability of cash prices over the last month has limited negotiated trade for the week due to extremely wide price swings. Given the limited packer capacity and continued backlog of cattle in feedlots, there seems to be little negotiation as there are only limited spots to be filled and feeders have the option to take them or packers will move on to other willing sellers. This could keep prices variable within wide trade ranges over the near future. Futures trade is expected to focus on the early week support as longer-term supply tightness is expected following the recent pullback in feeder cattle supplies to feedlots. The limit gains in feeder cattle Tuesday is likely to renew buyer support midweek, while lending additional support to live cattle futures. Wednesday slaughter is expected at 105,000 head.
Strong triple-digit gains during the last half of the trading session Tuesday sparked renewed underlying support through the complex. Although these price moves do little to change technical market direction due to the wide sideways market gaps in lean hog futures, the strong rally did move June futures above $60 per cwt for the first time in over two weeks. This threshold will be closely watched as July futures are nearing that level midweek following near limit gains in July trade on Tuesday. Little has changed fundamentally either in the lean hog complex, although the general perception that the worst may be behind us both in the hog industry and general economic downturn, could quickly spark renewed buyer support that has been hovering on the sidelines waiting for a green light to return to business as usual. Cash hog bids are expected $1 lower to $1 per cwt higher with most bids steady to firm. Slaughter Wednesday is expected at 407,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Limit gains in August feeder cattle futures Tuesday will spark access to expanded trading limits of $6.75 per cwt in all feeder cattle contracts. The significant reductions in placements in April, combined with lower placements through the year is putting more emphasis on future feeder cattle buying in order to restock the feedlot system through the end of the year.
1)
Double-digit losses developed once again in beef cutout values Tuesday as prices seem to be returning to a more realistic level over the last couple of weeks. Traditionally, beef market losses following the Memorial Day weekend is not a good sign for overall beef demand, but normal benchmarks seem to have limited usefulness at this point.
2)
Higher cash cattle prices last week with an average of $117.06 per cwt posted a gain of $4.75 from the previous week. This upward shift in the market is sparking renewed expectations of additional cash market support given that packers seem to be reluctant to reduce cash prices given the Department of Justice eyes closely watching every move done in the meat industry.
2)
There remains little connection between the cattle and beef markets as markets attempt to slowly recover during late May and early June. Futures, cash and wholesale beef values are not holding typical trading relationships, creating little confidence in the support of recent futures gains at this point.
3)
Firm gains in pork cutout values Tuesday is pointing to price stability as packers continue to focus on filling consumer demand through early summer months.
3)
Cash hog values have weakened during early week trade. The still enormous backlog of market-ready hogs available to packers is limiting the need to shift prices higher, especially following the long holiday weekend and short production week.
4)
Steady gains are seen in daily slaughter numbers. This is creating the expectation that further growth will be seen as more plant workers return.
4)
Despite the strong triple-digit gains early in the week, lean hog futures are deeply entrenched within a sideways market trend, with two to three days of strong triple-digit gains still needed to break through resistance levels. This could limit the upside market direction the next couple of weeks.



#completecalfcare

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:
All three livestock contracts rallied through closing, ending the day substantially higher for the start of the week. Boxed beef values and pork cutouts are trying to wade through this new era as prices start to correct and slaughter continues to grow. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.98 with a weighted average of $36.83 on 6,853 head sold. July corn is up 1 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 529.95 points and NASDAQ is up 15.63 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts closed higher and moved the market closer to that $100 resistance plane in nearby contracts. June live cattle closed $1.70 higher at $99.40, August live cattle closed $1.92 higher at $99.25 and October live cattle closed $2.22 higher at $101.62. Wednesday will be interesting, as the trade will fight immense resistance if the market chooses to rally and build upon what Tuesday established. Cash cattle trade, oddly enough, developed Tuesday despite it being the first trading day of the week. Cattle in Iowa sold dressed for $174 to $190, dressed cattle in Nebraska sold for $180 to $190 and live cattle sales in Kansas sold anywhere from $1.10 to $1.20. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.
The USDA National Weekly Direct Slaughter Cattle -- Negotiated Purchases report shared that last week packers bought 83,504 head; 79,411 were bought for delivery in the next two weeks while the remaining 4,093 head were bought for delivery in 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices close lower: choice down $11.25 ($385.49) and select down $14.16 ($360.02) with a movement of 222 loads (136.84 loads of choice cuts, 28.85 loads of select, 15.82 loads of trim and 40.80 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Seeing that the market has already been tested, trade will most likely stay within the parameters set.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts rallied all throughout the day and closed substantially higher, $3.00 to $4.50 higher throughout the complex. August feeders closed limit higher at $133.30, September feeders closed $4.27 higher at $134.42 and October feeders closed $4.07 higher at $135.32. The day's closing jumped over the 40-day moving average ($120.81) and the 100-day moving average ($129.37). At Blue Grass Stockyards in Lexington, Kentucky, compared to last week, feeder steers under 700 pounds sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher with good demand for weaned cattle. Feeder heifers sold steady to $2.00 higher with stronger demand again for cattle that had been weaned for some time. Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold steady with good demand and yearlings sold steady. The CME feeder cattle index 5/22/2020: up $0.72, $126.96.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog contracts, though unsure at the start of the day, rallied around the noon hour and closed higher to end the day. June lean hogs are up $1.72 at $60.50, July lean hogs are up $3.67 at $59.57 and August lean hogs are up $2.87 at $57.15. Hog cutout values bounced around trying to find a new stage of normal as hog slaughter continued to slowly rebuild.
Pork cutouts total 396.30 loads with 369.05 loads of pork cuts and 27.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.69, $97.44. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 405,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 72,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/21/2020: down $1.14, $63.45.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. As packers continue to sift through inventory, trying to add more each day, the built-up supply continues to outweigh demand.


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Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Refreshed and Ready for the New Week

General Comments
The marketplace is thriving midmorning Tuesday as all three livestock contracts continue to trade higher and even though it's early in the week, a light run of cash cattle have traded for $190 in parts of Nebraska. Significant trade will most likely hold off until later in the week but seeing prices come out strong this early is another good sign for the market this week. July corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 567.42 points and NASDAQ is up 75.36 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts may not be rallying the solid $3.00 or higher like the feeder cattle complex is, but the substantial $1.70 to $2.00 gains seen throughout the complex is warmly welcomed. June live cattle are up $1.72 at $99.40, August live cattle are up $1.82 at $99.15 and October live cattle are up $1.82 at $101.22. Seeing that both the June and August contracts are within a $1.00 of the $100.00 threshold, leaves the market with a decision to make. Is there enough support and enough traders around willing to buy into the marketplace to push past the $100 benchmark? Or will the market trade higher, but without coming in full contact with the resistance? Solid support builds within the market as cash cattle have already traded steady this week. Some light trade is developing in parts of Nebraska at $190, which is fully steady with the top end of last week's business. Showlists this week appear to be higher in all feeding regions and especially in Texas.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $10.73 ($386.01) and select down $9.62 ($364.56) with a movement of 149 loads (97.46 loads of choice, 14.69 loads of select, 3.29 loads of trim and 33.91 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts head into Tuesday ready to capture all of what the day has to offer and push contracts into mostly triple-digit gains. August feeders are up $4.30 at $133.07, September feeders are up $3.87 at $134.02 and October feeders are up $3.65 at $134.90. Last week, the market danced mostly lower as there was pressure on both live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. Seeing that fat cattle are testing the market this week already fully steady with last week's prices, if the board can rally on the live cattle side of things, the feeder cattle contracts are appearing to be growing in strength. This comes as a pleasant surprise as cattle producers look forward to seeing what the first large runs of videos sale do in the next couple of weeks for feeder cattle.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog complex wasn't completely sure about the day's ambition to rally higher but has since warmed up to the idea and is trading right along with cattle contracts. June lean hogs are up $2.17 at $60.95, July lean hogs are up $3.42 at $59.32 and August lean hogs are up $2.60 at $56.87. Morning pork cutout values skyrocketed pushing upwards of $10 higher, so heading into the afternoon it will be interesting to see where those prices close and see how demand changes over the next little while.
The projected lean hog index for 5/22/2020 is down $1.15 at $62.30, and the actual index for 5/21/2020 is down $1.15 at $63.45. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.61 with a weighted average of $36.20, ranging $32.00 to $39.00 on 4,805 head sold. Pork cutouts total 193.86 loads with 178.61 loads of pork cuts and 15.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $10.06, $106.81.

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