Thursday, July 18, 2019

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Pressure Develops

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Active pressure developed in feeder cattle trade for the second straight session as traders steadily back away from recent highs. This underlying weakness sparked uncertainty in live cattle trade late Thursday. Mixed hog trade developed late Thursday, although the bounce off session lows focuses on underlying support in the complex. Corn futures posted active losses. September futures is 11 cents per bushel lower. Dow Jones Index is 2 points higher with Nasdaq up 22 points.
CASH MARKETS:
Limited cash cattle trade developed during early afternoon. Live southern trade is seen at $111 per cwt, while dressed northern trade is at $183 per cwt. Although some additional trade may develop Friday surrounding the cattle on feed and cattle inventory report, the tone of the market is likely set. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report is $0.71 higher with a weighted average of $72.24 per cwt. Full range of $58 to $76.50 per cwt on 12,891 head sold.
LIVE CATTLE:
Firm pressure trickled into live cattle trade due to limited interest ($0.50 to $0.85 lower). Live cattle futures continue to hover near the top end of the short-term range established over the last two weeks. Although light to moderate softness developed Thursday, the lack of aggressive pressure is keeping traders focused on the long-term support that may redevelop through the end of July. August futures slipped below $108 per cwt, with traders trying to adjust to potential shifts from the cattle on feed and cattle inventory reports, which will come out Friday.Beef cut-outs: higher, $0.27 higher (select, $188.61) and up $0.77 (choice, $213.34) with light demand and offerings, 135 loads (67 loads of choice cuts, 32 loads of select cuts, nine loads of trimmings, 27 loads of coarse grinds).
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Although most trade is expected to be wrapped up, some light to moderate activity may be seen surrounding the Friday cattle reports. Cash trade is expected to remain steady with Thursday levels, and steady to $1 lower last week prices.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Pressure developed in feeder cattle trade despite grain market losses ($1.00 to $1.42 lower). Traders in the feeder cattle complex broke away from moves in corn trade as double-digit losses in corn futures did little to support feeder cattle buying through the second half of the day. Traders are also giving little support to the hot weather sweeping across the nation, although this is likely to impact many cattle across the country. But at this point, the hot weather is giving no support to the overall market situation. Traders are looking forward to the cattle on feed report released Friday afternoon as they try to preposition holdings in front of the report. CME cash feeder index for 7/17 is $140.00, down 1.01.
LEAN HOGS:
Firm gains developed across lean hog trade despite early losses ($0.92 lower to $0.77 higher). Sharp triple-digit losses swept through Thursday morning trade as traders tried to adjust to the strong market moves higher seen at midweek. Underlying support remains well established in the lean hog complex, although there continues to be significant uncertainty about long-term export movement in the complex. This may keep prices in the current range over the near future. Pork values firmed slightly following mixed primal price shifts. Pork cutout values added $0.12 per cwt, moving to $76.60 per cwt on 276 loads. CME cash lean index for 7/16 is $70.79, up $0.17. DTN Projected lean index for 7/17 is $71.52, up $0.73.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 Higher. Follow through support is expected to develop Friday with most bids expected to be 50 cents higher. Friday slaughter numbers are expected at 467,000 head. Saturday runs are likely to hit 17,000 head.


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