Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Markets Wait for Cash Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market had little news to move the market significantly. Futures were moderately higher except for the June contract. Feeder cattle posted triple-digit gains, but the bounce from the uptrend line seemed to fuel buying interest. The strike at the JBS plant is old news, with little being reported about it and little impact seen on the market. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced the launch of a national public awareness campaign to inform meat, poultry, and egg producers of the "Product of USA" voluntary labeling standard. This standard went into effect on Jan. 1. This campaign is to increase awareness of what the label means. Boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday, with choice up $0.78 and select up $0.67.

Hog futures closed mixed, with traders finding little fundamental direction. The June and July contracts moved below support but did not trigger liquidation. Later contracts still maintain technical support. Futures may drift today as traders ponder the implications of the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be released on Thursday. Trade estimates are for all hogs and pigs on March 1 at 100.9% of a year ago. Kept for breeding at 99.8% and kept for marketing at 101.0%. The February Cold Storage report showed total pork stocks at 8% below February 2025. Ham inventory was nearly even with a year ago. This report will have little influence on the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.66. Pork cutout values fell by $2.63.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Boxed beef may find some stability, which would provide further support to the market.	1)	Cattle futures have been in an uptrend recently but may struggle to see much further upside without stronger fundamental support.
2)	Steady cash cattle trade is anticipated this week, which could provide confidence to traders to add to their long positions.	2)	Packers may not be aggressive in the cash market this week and may be able to hold for lower prices because they have cattle purchased ahead.
3)	The June and July hog futures contracts did not come under liquidation when prices moved below support. This may indicate a lack of selling interest at these levels.	3)	The June and July Hog contracts closed below technical support, which could trigger further selling interest.
4)	The hogs kept for breeding on the upcoming report may indicate a potential for a tighter supply over time.	4)	Cash hogs are expected to trade lower today. Packers have been aggressive earlier and may hold back on bids.