Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Selling Pressure May Unfold

GENERAL COMMENTS:

No cash cattle were traded, which was not a surprise for the report week. The attitude of the market changed with traders thinking cash may be lower again this week. The Cattle on Feed report will be released after the close. The average trade estimates for the Cattle on Feed report are on-feed numbers as of March 1 at 99.3%, placements in February at 100.3% and marketings at 92.4%. There is a wide range of estimates for placements. The range of estimates is from 96.3% to 105.0%. Analysts are trying to determine the impact on placements due to the Mexico border remaining closed and the increase in feeder cattle sales during February. If we were to see a placements figure of over 100%, it would mark the first such month since April 2025 that we had a placements figure over 100%. Boxed beef prices were lower, with choice down $1.45 and select down $3.72.

Hogs were unable to find support as selling pressure pushed futures below the previous low and triggered stops, causing the market to pancake lower. The weakness of cash on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, with a decline of $0.49, would not have triggered the selling. The weakness in pork cutouts also would not have triggered the selling. Cutouts were down $0.72. The summer contracts showed the greatest weakness and may retest the lows on Feb. 13.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have overcorrected ahead of the cash trade and the Cattle on Feed report.	1)	Traders turned negative on the market with the expectation for lower cash surfacing on Thursday.
2)	If the report shows on-feed and placement numbers below the trade estimates, the market may regain the losses when trading begins next week.	2)	If placements for February are above what they were a year ago, it will be viewed as negative to the market.
3)	Hog futures are nearing the lows of Feb. 13. This could be a level of support.	3)	The weakness of hog futures on Thursday may see follow-through selling today.
4)	There is a good chance that packers may need more hogs to finish out the week. Cash could be higher.	4)	If hog futures penetrate and close below the low of Feb. 13, further liquidation may take place.