GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the market has stumbled into some renewed technical support following Monday's lower close. Still no trade has developed in the fed cash cattle market and both bids and asking prices remain elusive at this time. May corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 243.93 points and NASDAQ is up 129.45 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Following Monday's weaker close, the live cattle complex has found some renewed technical support and is currently trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour. Unfortunately, the spot April contract is still trading just below the market's 100-day moving average, which will continue to be an important threshold to monitor as whenever the complex is trading below that price-point a level of bearishness is present throughout the marketplace. April live cattle are up $1.77 at $231.92, June live cattle are up $1.95 at $229.37 and August live cattle are up $1.95 at $227.52. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared positive news for both the cattle and beef markets for 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 110 million pounds as processing speeds through the early part of the year have been significantly lower than anticipated and beef production is forecasted lower even though carcass weights are once again, heavier. And amid a time in which beef demand is so strong, fed cattle prices for the first three quarters of 2026 were all increased compared to last month. Steer prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $240 (up $2.00 from last month); steer prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $241 (up $3.00 from last month); steer prices in the third quarter are expected to average $242 (up $2.00 from last month); and steer prices for the fourth quarter of 2026 are unchanged at $245. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 100 million pounds as supplies domestically remain thin and beef exports fell by 30 million pounds compared to last month's estimates.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $6.33 ($397.62) and select up $3.78 ($387.40) with a movement of 44 loads (30.50 loads of choice, 3.82 loads of select, 3.27 loads of trim and 6.66 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Keeping in alignment with the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour. March feeders are up $3.22 at $353.87, April feeders are up $3.02 at $349.57 and May feeders are up $2.70 at $345.57. The spot April feeder cattle contract is currently trading above the market's 100-day moving average -- but could face some technical pressure when the complex comes up against the resistance at the 40-day moving average. Despite the immense pressure the futures complex endured Monday, feeder cattle sales held relatively steady; hopefully the same will be said about sales throughout today.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is currently trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour and is beginning to rival the market's resistance, which could be problematic for traders later this afternoon if the market's fundamental support isn't as strong as desired. April lean hogs are up $1.45 at $96.27, June lean hogs are up $0.77 at $110.67 and July lean hogs are up $0.75 at $112.72. Unfortunately, pork cutout values are down at the day's start, which may not help traders in their desire to continue to see the contracts scale higher.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/9/2026 is up $0.10 at $90.97 and the actual index for 3/6/2026 is up $0.13 at $90.87. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $92.68, ranging from $88.00 to $94.00 on 2,695 head and a five-day rolling average $92.03. Pork cutouts total 184.70 loads with 169.45 loads of pork cuts and 15.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.78, $99.54.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared positive news for the pork and hog markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 remained unchanged compared to last month's estimates at 28,275 million pounds. Quarterly hog prices also showed fruitful projections as every quarter of 2026 (except for the first quarter) saw a price increase compared to last month's estimates. Hog prices in the first quarter remained unchanged at $65; hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $74 (up $1.00 from last month); hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $77 (up $2.00 from last month); and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $65 (up $2.00 from last month). Pork imports for the year remained steady at 1,145 million pounds, but pork exports gained an additional 50 million pounds.
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