Monday, April 1, 2019

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Late-Day Buying Stabilized Hog Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS: Limited activity developed at the end of the session Monday with traders seemingly making the break from the volatile price swings seen in March. With a new month on the books, traders appear to be focusing on market stability as they look for additional fundamental shifts over the next week or two. Corn futures are higher in light-to-moderate trade. May futures added 5 cents per bushel. Dow Jones Index is 303 points higher with Nasdaq up 91 points. Cash cattle interest is expected to remain undeveloped over the next couple of days with bids and showlists not likely to be active until Wednesday or later. Cash trade last week fell $2.62 per cwt from the previous week, allowing increased concern about future losses to develop. The stability in futures should firm asking prices once they develop. Showlists are generally larger with the main reduction in offerings seen in Colorado. National Daily Direct afternoon hog report is $0.25 higher with a weighted average of $75.19 per cwt. Full range of $68.00 to $77.00 per cwt on 5,578 head sold.
LIVE CATTLE: Moderate-to-active buying moved into live cattle futures ($0.25 to $0.85 higher). Traders quickly broke away from the volatility in the market during March, which posted wide, $4 per cwt swings, as traders shifted price levels back and forth in the extremely wide range. But the ability for buyers to quickly and firmly move into the complex without any significant technical or fundamental direction change helped bring stability to the complex. Early triple-digit gains in the complex eroded near closing bell, but the general firmness seen through the entire complex continues to draw attention to potential market support as traders look toward growing demand through the spring and summer months. Beef cut-outs: higher, $0.44 higher (select, $219.33) and up $0.80 (choice, $226.84) with moderate demand and light to moderate offerings, 85 loads (46 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, 8 load of trimmings, 17 loads of coarse grinds).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Activity in cash markets is expected to remain at a standstill early Tuesday morning. Bids and asking prices are not expected until near midweek with potential trade likely to be pushed to the last half of the week despite last week's early market developments.
FEEDER CATTLE: Strong early gains eroded through the end of the session based on limited volume Monday afternoon ($0.10 to $1.20 higher). Nearby contracts were limited to 10- to 45-cent gains at closing bell as aggressive early buying support which focused on recent grain losses and strong underlying live cattle trade backed away from the complex at closing bell. The ability to hold prices higher Monday continues to show overall market support, but traders seem unwilling to aggressively step back into the market given the recent market slide. CME cash feeder index for 3/29 is $142.42 up $0.68.
LEAN HOGS: Limited direction held prices mixed despite aggressive early losses ($1.30 lower to $0.42 higher). Following initial, triple-digit losses moving into the market, price stability seemed to be the main order of business across the complex. This allowed for increased stability in all lean hog futures with most contracts showing narrow market shifts with nearby contracts holding 32 cents lower to 42 cents higher. The focus on rebuilding market support based on previous fundamental gains could help stimulate additional buying through the rest of the week. Traders still remain concerned about the lack of news or details about trade talks with China. But the length of the process is starting to become normal, allowing some traders to look past rumors and trade hopes until something more concrete develops. Pork cutout values firmed during early April with strong, triple-digit gains in picnic, rib and belly primals. Pork cutout values added $0.82 per cwt, moving to $82.15 per cwt on 256 loads. CME cash lean index for 3/28 is $73.87, up $2.15. DTN Projected lean index for 3/29 $75.80, up $1.93.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Limited activity expected Tuesday with most bids steady as packers continue to line up procurement levels for the week. Most bids are expected steady. Tuesday slaughter is expected at 477,000 head.


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