Monday, November 29, 2021

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Look for Support in Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts didn't walk away with any wild wins through Monday's trade, but feedlots aren't worried about this week's trade after seeing how aggressive packers were in last week's cash market. Upon seeing that packers committed 90% of last week's volume for the nearby delivery. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.02 with a weighted average of $55.15 on 11,221 head. December corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $6.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 236.60 points and NASDAQ is up 291.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Monday may have been a tough pill for the cattle complex to swallow after rallying aggressively throughout last week's trade, but that doesn't mean that this rally is over. Traders appraised the marketplace Monday morning, and without seeing any renewed support from the cash market, they treaded gingerly throughout the marketplace, ultimately letting the market sink lower. Upon seeing how packers committed the cattle they bought last week, it's still evident that they are short bought and likely to continue to support the cash market in the weeks ahead, as they are buying most of their cattle with the nearby delivery. December live cattle closed $1.17 lower at $136.92, February live cattle closed $1.90 lower at $139.30 and April live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $142.52. The cash cattle market saw a few head of cattle trade in Nebraska for $137.50, but by no means was the trade large enough to think that some sort of a trend could be established for the week. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 110,593 head. Of that 90% (99,083 head) were committed for the nearby delivery while the remaining 10% (11,510 head) were committed for the deferred delivery of the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.43 ($277.58) and select down $0.26 ($262.02) with a movement of 82 loads (51.22 loads of choice, 18.76 loads of select, 5.61 loads of ground beef and 6.13 loads of trim).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. The market isn't likely to see any real substantial trade develop until at least Wednesday, if not even later. Feedlots stand a good chance at demanding higher prices again this week as packers are expected to run fast processing speeds again.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market may have pulled back from last week's rally, but that doesn't mean that sales throughout the countryside weakened! Traders were leery of the marketplace as the market longed for support from the live cattle market, but nothing seemed to surface by the day's end. It's anticipated that the cash cattle market will be able to demand at least steady prices, if not push the market higher again this week, and if all the stars align for the market to be able to do so, then feeders should be able to rally again. January feeders closed $1.42 lower at $165.72, March feeders closed $1.42 lower at $166.55 and April feeders closed $1.30 lower at $168.85. At the midway point at the Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle sale in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher and feeder heifers sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher. Steer and higher calves were selling anywhere from $4.00 to $6.00 higher with instances up to $15.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 26: unavailable at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The pork market saw a jump in pork cutouts, which most likely stemmed from some last-minute holiday buying as the ham jumped $7.05 alone. Packers have been notably aggressive in the cash market over the last few trading days and, as the new year approaches, it's safe to anticipate that packers want to make the most of their time between now and then while demand is heightened. The nearby contracts lagged behind the rest of the market as the deferred contracts rallied well over $1.00 higher. December lean hog closed $0.80 lower at $72.40, February lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $80.92 and April lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $85.90. Pork cutouts totaled 335.31 loads with 301.09 loads of pork cuts and 34.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.73, $87.71. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 24: unavailable at this time.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Packers have been aggressive in the cash hog market as they hunt down supplies to secure processing in the near future. With pork cutout values summoning support, packers are anxious to run faster chain speeds while demand is present.




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