Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Momentum Continues

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a typical, post-holiday trading day as the market wandered through the day's closing bell not seeing a whole lot of action one way or another. The cattle complex was able to continue to trade higher thanks to the cash cattle market's continued support, but the lean hog contracts showed signs of exhaustion and closed lower. March corn is up 5 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 188.59 points

Friday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 4,800 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 66% from the previous week and 61% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were China (1,500 mt), Mexico (800 mt) and Japan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 17,200 mt for 2024 were down 5% from the previous week, but up 1% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (8,300 mt), Japan (2,100 mt) and Colombia (1,900 mt).

Friday-to-Friday livestock contracts scored the following changes: December live cattle up $1.20, February live cattle up $0.43; January feeder cattle up $5.18, March feeder cattle up $5.50; December lean hogs up $0.40, February lean hogs up $0.65; December corn down $0.02, March corn down $0.02.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the day mostly higher as traders remained pleased with the cash cattle market's impressive gains this past week. Even though it was a holiday-shortened week, feedlot managers remained committed to trading their cattle to the best of their ability, and thankfully packers were short bought heading into this week which pushed prices higher. Throughout the week Southern live cattle were sold for mostly $190, which is $3.00 to $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle sold for mostly $295, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. December live cattle closed $0.02 lower at $187.97, February live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $188.62 and April live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $190.77. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- incomparable to a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 39,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 528,000 head -- incomparable to a week ago but 111,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.74 ($310.52) and select steady ($274.30) with a movement of 57 loads (33.28 loads of choice, 10.64 loads of select, 5.55 loads of trim and 7.73 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Packers showed their hand this past week and although they were able to buy some cattle, it's likely that they're still short bought and will need to be active in next week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It remained a powerful day for the feeder cattle complex all the way through Friday's end as the market maintained its valiant rally through closing. Yes, the nearby corn contracts may have closed $0.04 to $0.07 higher, but the feeder cattle market simply didn't care as demand is on its side with cattle imports from Mexico being restricted. The rally in which the market has successfully accomplished over the last week is nothing short of impressive and I think it's worth noting the January contract is trading at its highest point since early July. January feeders closed $0.70 higher at $259.47, March feeders closed $1.32 higher at $258.62 and April feeders closed $1.22 higher at $259.62. The CME feeder cattle index 11/28/2024: down $0.88, $254.32.

LEAN HOGS:

After rallying to contract highs on Tuesday afternoon, the lean hog contracts continued to drift lower through Friday's end as the market simply wasn't seeing enough fundamental support to justify pushing the contracts any higher. December lean hogs closed $).32 lower at $82.07, February lean hogs closed $1.60 lower at $86.32 and April lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $90.75. There's a chance that traders could be more willing next week to support the complex, but it will be vital to see consistent consumer support if that's going to be the case. Thankfully the carcass price was able to close higher Friday afternoon, but that was mostly because of the $7.99 jump in the belly. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.67 with a weighted average price of $83.79 on 1,631 head. Pork cutouts total 201.03 loads with 167.72 loads of pork cuts and 33.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.37, $90.31. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 438,000 head -- incomparable to a week ago but 39,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 388,000 head. The CME lean hog index 11/27/2024: not available at this time.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely need to be somewhat aggressive in next week's market as they weren't overly active this past week, but that will likely take place on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Trend Higher While Hogs Slip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market has seen tremendous fundamental support this past week. The lean hog complex isn't as lucky today as its nearby contracts are trading lower. No new cash cattle trade has been noted at this point, but a bid of $191 has been renewed in Nebraska. March corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 321.50 points

Friday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 4,800 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 66% from the previous week and 61% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were China (1,500 mt), Mexico (800 mt) and Japan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 17,200 mt for 2024 were down 5% from the previous week, but up 1% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (8,300 mt), Japan (2,100 mt) and Colombia (1,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to trade higher as the market is well supported by traders in the technical sense, and fundamentally through the cash cattle market's strong performance this week. Holiday weeks are always a gamble as packers are either nonchalant in the marketplace not seeming to need many cattle on a holiday-shortened kill week, or they're aggressive like they had to be this week. But given that this week's cash cattle trade ranged anywhere from $3.00 to $5.00 higher -- it's safe to say that packers are short bought and thankfully feedlot managers were awake behind the wheel and didn't miss out on an opportunity to advance the market even though they had to juggle the Thanksgiving holiday midweek. December live cattle are up $0.32 at $188.32, February live cattle are up $0.35 at $188.95 and April live cattle are up $0.67 at $191.10. So far this week, Southern live cattle were sold for mostly $190, which is $3.00 to $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle sold for mostly $295, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Bids of $191 have surfaced again in Nebraska, but no new sales have been reported. Some clean-up trade could develop ahead of today's close, but it looks like the bulk of this week's trade is done with.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.04 ($311.22) and select up $1.60 ($275.90) with a movement of 39 loads (27.50 loads of choice, 4.88 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the nearby corn contracts are trading $0.03 to $0.05 higher, the feeder cattle market doesn't currently seem to have a care in the world as support is plentiful for the market right now. Between the announcement earlier this week that Mexican cattle imports would be restricted because of the detection of New World screwworm found in a cow in Southern Mexico, the market's support has been widespread as traders, cattlemen and everyone in between seem to be acknowledging the market's current power and strength. January feeders are up $1.07 at $259.85, March feeders are up $1.72 at $259.02 and April feeders are up $1.60 at $260.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex isn't seeing the support it would like as packers are appearing to be done buying in the cash hog market this week, and although morning pork cutout values are up slightly, traders aren't willing to put much clout in that factor as prices were stressed earlier this week. Not to mention, most of the nearby contracts ran to new contract highs earlier this week and so for the market to find itself in a position where the nearby contracts are venturing lower after a holiday isn't that surprising. December lean hogs are down $0.47 at $81.92, February lean hogs are down $1.52 at $86.40 and April lean hogs are down $0.80 at $90.82.

The projected lean hog index for 11/27/2024 is down $0.30 at $85.21, and the actual index for 11/26/2024 is down $0.39 at $85.51. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.92 with a weighted average price of $83.44, ranging from $80.00 to $88.00 on 1,119 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.85. Pork cutouts total 145.90 loads with 128.03 loads of pork cuts and 17.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.85, $89.79.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lighter Trading Activity Could Increase Volatility

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders had hoped cash cattle would see strength this week, but cash trading $3.00 to $5.00 higher was beyond expectations. Packers needed to purchase cattle to compensate for the holiday-shortened week and prepare for next week and could not afford to hold out any longer without paying what feedlots were asking. It will be interesting to see if selling prices will hold at these levels or if cash trade could increase further. With lighter trading activity Friday and a shorter trading day, futures movement could be magnified with a higher opening expected. Boxed beef prices slipped after being strong over the past week. Choice declined by $0.30 and select down $1.19. Futures should remain supported and likely open higher when trading begins.

Hog futures may have worn out their welcome after setting new contract highs again Wednesday. Pork cutouts fell $2.21 as weakness continued. Ribs, hams, and bellies showed substantial weakness and may pressure hog futures. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report finally showed a price change and it was lower with a decline of $0.40 from the previous day. The slaughter pace continues to remain strong, but packers may not be aggressive as they may have purchased a sufficient supply earlier in the week. It will be a shorter trading day with the markets closing at 12:05 p.m. CST Friday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle trading $3.00 to $5.00 higher Wednesday should support the market Friday.	1)	Live cattle futures have been unable to move through and close above price resistance in the December, February, and April contracts. This may remain a level of heavy selling.
2)	Cattle imports from Mexico have been put on hold until further protocols and testing procedures are updated and initiated. This should support futures in the near term.	2)	Higher cash cattle prices may be factored in and could prompt some selling interest as traders position ahead of the end of the month.
3)	Hog supplies are tighter than earlier reported, which continues to support the market despite the recent weakness of cash and cutouts. Traders have been purchasing for the long term.	3)	The recent weakness of pork cutouts may be too much for the trade to ignore and could trigger liquidation.
4)	The trend is up in hog futures and managed money traders may continue to trade the trend.	4)	Packers may have purchased sufficient hogs for the week and may not be very aggressive Friday, resulting in lower cash.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade $3.00 to $5.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it was a positive day for the livestock complex ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. The cash cattle market traded anywhere from $3.00 to $5.00 higher, and traders were supportive of all three of the livestock markets through Wednesday's close. March corn is steady and January soybean meal is up $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 138.25 points

**The markets are closed on Thanksgiving Day. Regular DTN market commentary will resume on Friday, November 29.**

LIVE CATTLE:

There are good days in the market, there are bad days in the market, and then there are great days in the marketplace – and today's close may just amount to being a great day for the live cattle complex. Between the board's upward momentum through the day's end, to the $3.00 to $5.00 advancement in the cash market -- cattlemen have little to gripe about. The only thing that could have potentially made the day sweeter is if boxed beef prices had closed higher, but given where prices sit compared to years past, we shouldn't even find fault there. December live cattle closed $1.10 higher at $188.00, February live cattle closed $0.90 higher at $188.60 and April live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $190.42. I thought that the week's cash cattle trade may be delayed until Friday, but packers are in need of cattle desperately enough to have had to advance the market early in the week. Throughout the day Southern live cattle were sold for mostly $190 which is $3.00 to $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle sold at mostly $295 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighed average. What was especially interesting about the sales made in Nebraska was that packers committed the cattle for delivery on the weeks of 12/2/2024, and 12/16/2024, which again indicates that packers were indeed short bought coming into this week which is why we saw so much interest in the cash market. Asking prices for cattle left in the South are firm at $190 and in the North at $298. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.31 ($311.26) and select down $1.19 ($274.30) with a movement of 175 loads (114.95 loads of choice, 27.80 loads of select, 9.22 loads of trim and 22.72 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that cattle have now sold in both regions, it's likely that any more cleanup trade that develops will be steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market has had no issue trading higher this week upon seeing the fed cash cattle market trading higher and with the market support that came from the announcement on Monday that cattle imports from Mexico are going to be restricted due to a positive case of New World screwworm. January feeders closed $0.67 higher at $258.77, March feeders closed $0.82 higher at $257.30 and April feeders closed $0.90 higher at $258.40. At the Tri-State Livestock Auction in McCook, Nebraska, compared to last week steers under 600 pounds traded anywhere from $6.00 to $18.00 higher but steers over 600 pounds sold $8.00 to $10.00 lower. Heifers traded anywhere from $2.00 to $15.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 45%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/26/2024: up $0.23, $255.94.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day mostly higher, although the market's spot and nearby contracts did close slightly lower. All in all, the lean hog complex has had an impressive week as most of the contracts were able to score new contract highs earlier this week -- but with pork cutout values lagging, it comes as no surprise that the nearby contracts are trading mildly lower as traders won't want to get too bullish on the markets amid mixed fundamental signals. As was the case this morning, the belly (down $9.49) and the ham (down $5.79) were the biggest reasons why the afternoon carcass price closed lower. December lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $82.40, February lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $87.92 and April lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $91.62. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.40 with a weighted average price of $87.46 on 4,743 head. Pork cutouts totaled 362.37 loads with 323.39 loads of pork cuts and 38.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.21, $88.94. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head – steady with a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/25/2024: up $0.44, $85.90.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that pork cutout values are trading lower and that packers were modestly aggressive in the cash market earlier this week it likely means that Friday's cash market won't see much interest from packers.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Early Strong Sales in Cash Cattle Market Help Push Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the help of the cash cattle market's higher trend, both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are trading higher into Wednesday's noon hour. Although only a few sales have been noted at this point, some Southern cattle have traded at $190 and Northern dressed sales are being reported at $295. March corn is steady and January soybean meal is up $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 76.61 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

There have been a few early sales in the cash cattle market which has helped the live cattle contracts as higher trade in the fed cash cattle market is always a positive sign. Although these sales have been light in their developments thus far, live sales have been marked in Kansas at $190 which is $3.00 to $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and a handful of dressed sales have been marked in Nebraska at $295 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. What was especially interesting about the sales made in Nebraska was that packers committed the cattle for delivery on the weeks of 12/2/2024, and 12/16/2024, which indicates that they're short bought and in need of more cattle to keep up with demand. Thankfully feedlot managers were savvy to this and have jumped at the opportunity to again trade cattle higher this week.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.49 ($312.06) and select up $0.29 ($275.78) with a movement of 86 loads (45.01 loads of choice, 20.29 loads of select, 8.09 loads of trim and 12.65 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing some early sales developing in the fed cash cattle market for higher prices, the feeder cattle complex is confidently keeping with its upward trek. January feeders are up $0.62 at $258.72, March feeders are up $0.65 at $257.12 and April feeders are up $0.50 at $258.00. With Mexican cattle imports still being restricted upon a finding of a cow with the New World screwworm, it's likely that the feeder cattle market will have no issue keeping with its rally for the near term.

LEAN HOGS:

With pork cutout values again lower this morning, and traders looking forward to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, it comes as no major surprise that the nearby lean hog contracts are again trading lower. December lean hogs are down $0.60 at $82.50, February lean hogs are down $0.27 at $88.02 and April lean hogs are down $0.30 at $91.27. The biggest determent to the carcass price this morning has been the belly's $7.92 decline, followed closely then by the ham's $6.00 decline. And it would also be remiss to ignore the fact that Tuesday's surge ran most of the nearby contracts to new contract highs, which is typical then for traders to show some exhaustion as their efforts the day before were significant.

The projected lean hog index for 11/26/2024 is down $0.39 at $85.51, and the actual index for 11/25/2024 is down $0.56 at $85.90. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.33 with a weighted average price of $87.36, ranging from $81.50 to $88.15 on 2,210 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.84. Pork cutouts total 157.18 loads with 137.09 loads of pork cuts and 20.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.90, $89.25.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Should Develop Ahead of Holiday

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle futures remained on fire with another day of triple-digit gains and January showing the greatest strength, increasing by $2.62. The spread between live and feeder cattle has widened substantially over the past two weeks. Live cattle have shown little price movement this week, even though the discovery of screwworm in Mexico prompted the restriction of cattle imports from the country. Feedlots have not found support for higher cash prices based on futures. However, boxed beef has been showing strong gains, which may make packers more aggressive. Consumer demand seems to be increasing, moving into the holiday period. Boxed beef prices on Tuesday were higher with choice up $1.86 and select up $1.75.

Hog futures continued to push higher Tuesday with new contract highs in February through October contracts. The June and July contracts reached $101 and held into the close. It has been some time since hog futures have reached this level. Cutouts have not supported the strength, as they declined $2.18 Tuesday. The strength is the perception that higher prices will be achieved and demand will improve. Hog numbers are tighter than anticipated earlier in the year, prompting traders to buy and hold. Price declines have been viewed as buying opportunities. The price change was not released on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report with the weighted average price posted at $87.86. The markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday but will reopen Friday morning at the regular time.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	January feeder cattle closed above technical resistance from July 18, which may increase buying interest.	1)	Live cattle futures have not found strength from the restriction of cattle imports from Mexico. This may not support higher cash cattle prices this week.
2)	Boxed beef prices seem to have turned the corner as demand has improved, increasing prices.	2)	Feeder cattle have moved quickly into an overbought position. This may trigger some profit-taking ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
3)	Hog futures continue to find strong support, pushing contracts to new highs. Traders continue to buy the strength, trading the trend.	3)	The weakness of pork cutouts may limit further upside potential for hog futures in the near term.
4)	The Thanksgiving holiday means one less day of buying hogs this week. This may have the packers more aggressive Wednesday to compensate.	4)	Hog futures will not continue to make new contract highs indefinitely and some selling could be seen Wednesday ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lean Hog, Feeder Cattle Contracts Close Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex rounded out the day mixed as both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets were well supported through Tuesday's close, but the live cattle contracts remained cautious. Still no sizeable sales have developed in the cash cattle market, but packer demand could improve on Wednesday. December corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 123.74 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mixed as the contracts wanted to follow in the path of the feeder cattle market, but without knowing how this week's cash cattle trade is going to pan out -- traders didn't want to get ahead of themselves, or the market. December live cattle closed $0.40 higher at $186.90, February live cattle closed steady at $187.70 and April live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $189.55. It's encouraging that boxed beef prices are again seeing support, and feedlot managers will likely make note of that as they desire to push the cash cattle market higher again this week. Given that feedlot managers are sitting with mostly current showlists, it's likely that trade will be delayed until Friday as feedlot managers are more apt to roll over their showlists this week than they are to sell for lower prices. Asking prices are noted in the South at $189 but are still not estimated in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head -- steady with a week and a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.86 ($311.57) and select up $1.75 ($275.49) with a movement of 129 loads (80.56 loads of choice, 24.25 loads of select, 4.86 loads of trim and 19.52 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that boxed beef prices are trading higher packers won't want to be short bought if there's an uptick in demand which could prices another $1.00 to $2.00 higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The momentum that spurred the feeder cattle complex higher throughout Monday's market remained the core theme for the complex again through Tuesday's trade. With cattle imports from Mexico currently being restricted, and no one knowing for how long the import restriction will last, bullishness remains the core theme for the feeder cattle complex as prices will likely continue to clip higher and higher as limited supplies amid eager buyers will have that effect. January feeders closed $2.62 higher at $258.10, March feeders closed $2.15 higher at $256.47 and April feeders closed $1.97 at $257.50. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $4.00 to $10.00 higher, with instances up to $15.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold $10.00 to $15.00 higher with instances up to $20.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 46%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/25/2024: up $0.99, $255.71.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex powered through the day as the market closed anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher thanks to tremendous trader support. Again, this afternoon pork demand wasn't helpful as the carcass prices drifted over $2.00 lower mainly because of the rib's $7.61 drop, and the loin's $4.90 drop. But nevertheless, traders still managed to support the contracts through the day, and they blew through the current resistance threshold as most of the nearby contracts leaped to new contract highs. December lean hogs closed $1.12 higher at $83.10, February lean hogs closed $2.35 higher at $88.27 and April lean hogs closed $1.45 higher at $91.57. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report averaged $87.86 on 8,292 head. Pork cutouts totaled 340.36 loads with 309.88 loads of pork cuts and 30.48 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.18, $91.15. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/22/2024: down $0.55, $86.46.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers bought over 8,000 head today and that demand isn't that strong this week -- it's likely that the bulk of this week's trade is essentially done with.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feeders Continue to Push Higher, While Live Cattle Retreat

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as the live cattle contracts are trading mostly lower but the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts continue to grind higher. Asking prices are noted in the South at $189 but are still not established in the North. December corn is down 5 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 104.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly lower as the market is on edge, waiting to see what develops in this week's cash cattle market. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are noted in the South at $189 but are still not established in the North. Given that feedlot managers' pens are current and that they were able to trade cattle higher last week, it's likely that will want to see prices trade higher again this week. With that being said, it wouldn't be surprising to see trade delayed until Friday. December live cattle are up $0.02 at $186.52, February live cattle are down $0.50 at $187.20 and April live cattle are down $0.32 at $189.32.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.85 ($313.56) and select up $4.37 ($278.11) with a movement of 70 loads (48.63 loads of choice, 10.02 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to trade higher as everyone from cattlemen to traders is ecstatic to see what feeder cattle prices are going to do amid this time in which Mexican cattle imports are going to be restricted. January feeders are up $2.17 at $257.65, March feeders are up $1.87 at $256.20 and April feeders are up $1.75 at $257.27. The market has recovered all of the position lost early in August from the commodity market meltdown and is currently showing no sign of easing up as the market upside potential amid tremendous buyer demand and limited feeder cattle supplies is unmeasurable.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though midday pork cutout values are lower, the lean hog complex is continuing to charge onward and higher as technical support is ample. December lean hogs are up $0.92 at $82.90, February lean hogs are up $1.40 at $87.32 and April lean hogs are up $0.80 at $90.92. The market is currently trading beyond resistance thresholds and unless fundamental support (especially in the form of stronger pork cutout values) becomes stronger, traders may grow skeptical about advancing the contracts any higher.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $87.69, ranging from $77.00 to $88.00 on 3,165 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.09. Pork cutouts total 199.80 loads with 181.26 loads of pork cuts and 18.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.54, $91.79.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Should Hold Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market exploded early Monday on the news of the restriction of cattle imports from Mexico. A discovery of an animal with the New World screwworm prompted the announcement and the restriction. After the initial reaction to the news subsided, futures contracts lost their luster with live cattle closing with losses. Traders settled back, developing more of a wait-and-see attitude. Feeder cattle closed with triple-digit gains as they continued to outpace live cattle. Futures moved above technical resistance early but closed below that level in the end. The October Cold Storage report showed inventories of beef about as expected. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $2.30 and select up $1.67. Cash cattle may begin trading Tuesday as packers may want to take care of most of their purchases before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Hog futures extended gains Monday despite the uncertainty of cash and struggling cutouts last week. The uncertainty of cash continued and no price changes were released Monday due to packer confidentiality. Too few hogs traded to provide a good representation of prices. However, April through October futures contracts made new contract highs with June joining July to close over $100. Pork cutouts closed higher, posting a gain of $1.56 after initially being more than $4.00 higher at the midday report. Bellies dragged the overall price lower with a loss of $6.43. The Cold Storage report showed frozen pork supplies declined 7% from September and down 3% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 8% from the previous month and down 42% from October 2023.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The restriction of cattle imports from Mexico should support the market as it may tighten beef supplies further.	1)	Cattle futures pushed through technical resistance early Monday but fell back as the day progressed. This level of resistance may be viewed as a selling opportunity.
2)	Feeder cattle remain strong, leading the beef complex higher. Any bearishness seen from the Cattle on Feed report has been digested with traders looking ahead to the bullish implications of the restriction on imports.	2)	Cash cattle were higher last week, but packers may not be as willing to pay more for cattle this week. They may reduce slaughter to improve margins.
3)	Traders support the hog market in anticipation of continued good demand and a tighter supply.	3)	Hog futures were unable to hold early strength as the uncertainty of cash loomed over the market.
4)	The packers may step up more aggressively Tuesday to purchase hogs before the Thanksgiving holiday. The slaughter pace remains strong.	4)	The packers may not be very aggressive this week as they may have already purchased most of the hogs they need to maintain a strong slaughter pace.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mostly Higher Prices Remain the Market's Theme

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a headline sparking day for the cattle complex as the announcement that New World screwworm had been detected in a cow in Southern Mexico led APHIS officials to restrict cattle imports from Mexico. This obviously sparked higher feeder cattle prices as the U.S. is already short on feeder cattle supplies with its historically low beef cowherd. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and January soybean meal is up $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 400.62 points.

Monday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 2% from the previous month and down 3% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 5% from the previous month but down 3% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 7% from the previous month and down 3% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 8% from last month and down 42% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the day mixed as some of the market's nearby contracts closed slightly lower, but the deferred contracts rallied through the day's end. The market would have liked to rally alongside the feeder cattle complex, but traders grew skeptical of supporting the contracts too much this early in the week. December live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $186.50, February live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $187.70 and April live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $189.65. Even with Monday's slightly lower close, the spot February contract maintained its position above the market's 40-day moving average. New showlists for the week appear to be steady to somewhat lower in Texas and Kansas, but slightly higher in Nebraska. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but Southern asking prices are noted at $189. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle were traded at mostly $186 to $187, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle were sold at mostly $290 which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,329 head. Of that amount, 74% (49,697 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (17,632 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.30 ($309.71) and select up $1.67 ($273.74) with a movement of 126 loads (74.03 loads of choice, 21.17 loads of select, 6.23 loads of trim and 24.91 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlot managers were able to move the cash market higher last week it's likely that they'll try to keep the market motivated and see prices trade higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a wild day for the feeder cattle complex as the market jolted higher at Monday's opening bell. Traders heard the news that a finding of New World screwworm had been detected in a cow in the Southern Mexico state of Chiapas, which pushed the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) to restrict cattle imports from Mexico. 

The U.S. already has limited feeder cattle supplies given that the U.S. beef cowherd sits at a historical low, so the news that cattle imports from Mexico would be restricted drove the feeder cattle complex higher all throughout Monday's trade. While the initial hype of the news simmered throughout the day, it's likely that feeder cattle prices will continue to etch higher until import restrictions open back up. January feeders closed $1.17 higher at $255.47, March feeders closed $1.20 higher at $254.32 and April feeders closed $1.17 higher at $255.52. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week and at their mid-session point, feeder steers were trading steady to $15.00 higher, and feeder heifers were selling $5.00 to $20.00 higher. The feeder cattle supply was over 600 pounds at 79%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/22/2024: up $0.18, $254.72.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex powered throughout the day able to maintain its higher position through the day's close. It was helpful that pork cutout values were higher not only at midday, but on Monday's afternoon closing report too. The belly was the only major cut to see a lower ending price, but all the other cuts saw sizeable gains. The market could run into little technical pressure on Tuesday as traders have worked the contracts back up to resistance levels. December lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $81.97, February lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $85.92, and April lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $90.12. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 1,840 head traded throughout the day and that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $83.31. Pork cutouts totaled 277.49 loads with 236.08 loads of pork cuts and 41.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.56, $93.33. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- steady with last week and 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/21/2024: down $0.43, $87.01.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. It's unlikely that packers will buy many hogs this week, but with pork cutout values slightly higher throughout Monday's trade, packer interest could be stronger on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Support Contracts Actively

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been an eventful day already as the feeder cattle complex shot higher early Monday morning upon hearing that Mexican cattle imports would be restricted moving forward as a positive detection of New World screwworm was found in Southern Mexico. The initial news sent the feeder cattle market charging higher, but now that the market has settled down, feeders are trading higher in a more modest manner as well are the live cattle and lean hog contracts. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 254.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is also trading higher into Monday's noon hour as the market is thrilled to see higher boxed beef prices to start the week off and is continuing to see ample trader support and willingness to advance the complex. December live cattle are up $0.12 at $186.90, February live cattle are steady at $188.20 and April live cattle are up $0.12 at $190.07. It's anyone's guess at this point what the cash cattle market is going to see in terms of packer demand as they could elect to virtually take the week off and enjoy the holiday-shortened week. On the other hand, if beef demand is seeing a slight holiday uptick, packers could be more active in this week's market than originally assumed as they want to ensure that they have enough cattle for the first week of December. New showlists for the week appear to be steady to somewhat lower in Texas and Kansas, but slightly higher in Nebraska.

Last week Southern live cattle were traded at mostly $186 to $187, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle were sold at mostly $290 which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.36 ($309.77) and select up $0.77 ($272.84) with a movement of 59 loads (29.04 loads of choice, 10.08 loads of select, 4.14 loads of trim and 15.26 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's been anything but a typical, lackadaisical Monday for the feeder cattle complex as the market opened $3.00 to $4.00 higher upon hearing that a finding of New World screwworm had been detected in a cow in the Southern Mexico state of Chiapas which pushed the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) to restrict cattle imports from Mexico. You can access their full public statement here:

It's known to everyone that the U.S. supply of feeder cattle is limited this year with the historically low cowherd in which the industry currently sits, which is partly why feeder cattle prices are currently as strong as they are. But upon hearing this news out of Mexico, the feeder cattle market is confidently continuing to trade higher as prices will likely continue to etch higher and higher as feeder cattle buyers will have even fewer cattle to sort through with Mexican imports being restricted. January feeders are up $0.85 at $255.10, March feeders are up $0.85 at $253.95 and April feeders are up $0.82 at $255.17.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with its rally into Monday's noon hour as the market is currently well supported by consumers as the midday pork cutout report jumps $4.38 higher. The sizeable increase in the morning's carcass price has given traders an extra bit of support as they go up against resistance levels. December lean hogs are up $0.60 at $82.27, February lean hogs are up $0.92 at $86.60 and April lean hogs are up $0.85 at $90.67. What's especially interesting to note about this morning's cutout report is that the only cut that is lower is the belly, while the rest of the major cuts are all trading higher, but the picnic is up the most as it's up $12.45.

The projected lean hog index for 11/22/2024 is down $0.55 at $86.46, and the actual index for 11/21/2024 is down $0.43 at $87.01. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 660 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.72. Pork cutouts total 135.10 loads with 118.86 loads of pork cuts and 16.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.38, $96.15.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May See Early Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex pushed higher Friday with feeder cattle again leading the charge. This is the second week feeder cattle have outperformed live cattle, pushing through technical resistance and garnering increased buying interest. It was a bit unusual for traders to buy aggressively ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. They generally want to reduce exposure and will position themselves to that end. However, they felt more confident over the steady to higher cash received for cattle rather than what the report might say. After all, most often the reaction to the report is short-lived. The report was slightly negative and may trigger selling to begin Monday. Cattle on feed as of Nov. 1 was 100.3% at 11.986 million head compared to the estimate of 99.9%. Placements were higher at 105.3% at 2.286 million compared to the estimate of 103.3%. Marketings came in at 104.7% at 1.845 million head compared to the estimate of 105.1%. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders adding 5,098 live cattle futures contracts, increasing their net-long position to 108,415. They added 1,608 futures contracts to increase their net-long position in feeder cattle to 13,667.

Hog futures pushed higher despite the weakness of cash and cutouts during the week. The change in cash was not reported Friday due to packer confidentiality, but the weighted average price of $82.72 was listed. Pork cutouts took another hit with a decline of $1.30. The packers may be aggressive Monday as they may want to purchase hogs early as it is a holiday-shortened week. But even though they may be aggressive, they may not pay very much. This may not be sufficient to hold futures in positive territory. Traders remain bullish for the summer as July made a new contract high, closing above $100 with June knocking on the door of a new high. The Commitments of Traders report showed the fund traders reducing their long position in hogs by 5,371 contracts and holding a total of 115,590 long positions.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feeder cattle continue to lead the cattle complex higher with the March contract closing at the highest level since July 26.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report was slightly bearish in all three categories. This may trigger selling to begin the day as traders may not have positioned themselves ahead of the report.
2)	Traders are optimistic over continued tight cattle numbers which may limit the downside price potential of beef prices.	2)	Cash cattle did not perform quite as well as some early trade indicated. Prices were steady to $1.00 higher but might have been a disappointment.
3)	July hog futures closed above $100 and a new contract high with June nearly reaching a new high. Traders are bullish on demand as the year progresses.	3)	The further weakness of pork cutouts on Friday added to the weakness seen much of the week. This may trigger renewed liquidation.
4)	The packers may be aggressive early this week to obtain the hogs they need before the Thanksgiving holiday.	4)	The packers may not be aggressive due to the holiday-shortened week. They may have already purchased much of their needs.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Remain Active in the Futures Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday ended up being another supportive trading day for the livestock contracts as all three markets rounded out the day higher. A few more cash cattle sales were reported, but they remained steady with the week's earlier trend. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 426.16 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $3.83, February live cattle up $2.95; January feeder cattle up $7.08, March feeder cattle up $7.47; December lean hogs up $2.18, February lean hogs up $2.77; December corn up $0.01, March corn down $0.00.

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders didn't seem to mind this week that a Cattle on Feed report was set to be released Friday afternoon as they continued to support the live cattle contracts through Friday's closing bell. All in all, it's likely that the market will find today's Cattle on Feed report to be neutral as most of the data was closely aligned with pre-report estimates. Placements were slightly higher but given the fundamental strength in the market currently, I don't believe traders will spend much time stressed over the data on Monday. December live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $186.77, February live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $188.20 and April live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $189.95. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at $186 which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average and Northern cattle traded at $290 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 18,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 631,000 head -- 25,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.62 ($307.41) and select down $0.85 ($272.07) with a movement of 98 loads (57.75 loads of choice, 27.65 loads of select, 2.65 loads of trim and 10.11 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that it will be a holiday shortened week, I don't expect to see packers overly active in the cash market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was an utterly incredible week for the feeder cattle complex as the market powered higher every single day on the futures complex and the support in which traders saw from the countryside was impeccable as buyers continue to aggressively seek both calves and feeders. January feeders closed $1.85 higher at $254.30, March feeders closed $1.02 higher at $253.12 and April feeders closed $1.22 higher at $254.35. But potentially the two biggest hitting factors that I'd like to highlight for you ahead of the weekend is that the surge in prices this past week pushed the market back to levels not last seen since the equity market meltdown early in August, and the price in which the CME feeder cattle index closed as ($254.54) as it's the truest testament of just how strong buyer demand is. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary share that compared to last week and throughout the entire state feeder cattle and claves traded $2.00 to $6.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $6.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 51%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/21/2024: up $0.27, $254.54.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though the cash hog market didn't amount to much throughout the day and that pork cutout values again closed lower, traders advanced the lean hog contracts higher through the day's end. December lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $81.67, February lean hogs closed $1.02 higher at $85.67 and April lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $89.82. The rib was the biggest limiting factor for today's carcass price as it alone dropped $6.68. Hog prices averaged $82.72 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with 1,753 head selling. Pork cutouts totaled 322.93 loads with 278.17 loads of pork cuts and 44.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.30, $91.77. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 138,000 head. The CME lean hog index 11/20/2024: down $0.39, $87.44.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that next week is a holiday shortened week for thanksgiving, I don't foresee packers being very aggressive in the cash hog market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released which will be a big-ticket item for the cattle complex. A few new bids have been offered in the cash cattle market, but no sales have been reported at this point. December corn is steady and December soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 328.97 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's somewhat unusual to see traders this aggressive in the live cattle/feeder cattle markets ahead of the monthly unveiling of the Cattle on Feed report, but at this point in time, traders seem more interested in what the market is accomplishing throughout the futures complex and from a fundamental sense than they are worried about the COF data. We know that on-feed totals are expected to be steady to somewhat higher than a year ago and that placements are likely going to come in heavier as well -- but what will be interesting is whether or not traders react negatively to the report on Monday if that is indeed what the data shows. December live cattle are up $0.80 at $186.40, February live cattle are up $0.40 at $187.85 and April live cattle are up $0.40 at $189.92. A few more bids have been renewed this morning, but no sales have been reported at this point. Thus far this week Southern live cattle have been traded at mostly $186 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, Northern dressed sales have been marked at $290 which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.44 ($308.23) and select down $0.49 ($272.43) with a movement of 52 loads (31.99 loads of choice, 15.35 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

This past week has been a rocking and rolling rallying week for the feeder cattle complex and traders haven't seized their ambitious drive whatsoever even though it's the last day of the week and later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released. January feeders are up $1.10 at $254.55, March feeders are up $1.35 at $253.45 and April feeders are up $1.47 at $254.60. Some of traders' bullishness today could be somewhat sparked by the note of higher fed cash cattle prices that developed Thursday afternoon, and along with the continued support of tremendous demand for feeders and calves at sale barns across the country.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again rallying into the day's noon hour as traders continue to build upon the technical footing established earlier this week and like seeing the higher note in this morning's pork cutout report. It's nice to see steady price fluctuations through the pork cuts instead of seeing wild, dramatic swings in one or two of the cuts. December lean hogs are up $0.30 at $81.10, February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $85.20 and April lean hogs are up $0.55 at $89.47.

The projected lean hog index for 11/21/2024 is down $0.43 at $87.01 and the actual index for 11/20/2024 is down $0.39 at $87.44. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $83.30, ranging from $81.00 to $86.00 on 1,080 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.63. Pork cutouts total 195.92 loads with 163.49 loads of pork cuts and 32.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.92, $93.99.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Manage Positions Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were cautious in live cattle futures Thursday as export sales were not exceptional and the upcoming Cattle on Feed report provided uncertainty. However, cash cattle began trading after the close at $1.00 to $2.00 higher. There were a few dressed sales marked at $3.00 higher. This was a bit of a surprise and may increase futures buying interest Friday despite the Cattle on Feed report to be released this afternoon. Futures may also find support from higher boxed beef prices with choice up $0.40 and select up $1.93 Thursday afternoon. Feeder cattle futures continued to remain stronger than live cattle. The November contract went off the board on Thursday with January moving to the front-month. USDA will release the Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CST today. The estimates are for on-feed as of Nov. 1 at 99.9% with a range of 99.5% to 100.1%. October placements are estimated at 103.3% with a range of 101.4% to 107.0%. Marketings in October are estimated at 105.1% with a range of 104.7% to 105.4%.

Hog futures spent some time in negative territory Thursday, but were able to close higher across the board. Gains were minimal -- but gains nevertheless. A low export sales number limited upside potential along with cash uncertainty and lower cutouts. Export sales were 9% lower than the previous week at 18,100 metric tons (mt). The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed very light trading activity with the packers not releasing a price change due to confidentiality. Pork cutouts took another hit with a decline of $1.53. This may make it difficult for futures to find aggressive buying interest Friday. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle trading higher after the close of futures Thursday may support the market Friday as futures adjust to higher cash.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report has been notorious for placements higher than the trade estimates. This may keep trading reluctant to support the market Friday.
2)	The strength of feeder cattle might continue to support live cattle futures. Lower placements than estimated in October would increase buying interest.	2)	The higher cash trade may have already been factored in with traders focused on positioning themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report.
3)	Hog futures have held well this week despite some pressure from lower cash and cutouts.	3)	The hog market has been struggling recently with lower cash hog prices and cutouts. This may limit further strength.
4)	Hog futures have corrected from being overbought and may remain in a sideways trading pattern with the market finding support.	4)	Packers may not be aggressive Friday as they might have purchased much of what they need to cover slaughter needs for the Thanksgiving holiday week.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Trade $1.00 to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets traded higher through Thursday's end, but the live cattle complex was skeptical ahead of seeing what the cash cattle market was going to do. Thankfully shortly after the day's closing bell, cash cattle trade started to develop, and prices were marked higher. December corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 461.88 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,300 mt for 2024 were up 1% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,300 mt), South Korea (3,300 mt), and China (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2024 were down 9% from the previous week but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (4,100 mt), South Korea (3,300 mt) and Japan (2,000).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts rounded out the day mostly lower as traders were nervous to support the contracts ahead of seeing what the week's cash cattle market was going to accomplish, and upon knowing that Friday's Cattle on Feed report is likely to be somewhat bearish as it's expected to showcase steady to somewhat greater on-feed totals and higher placements. December live cattle closed $0.70 lower at $185.60, February live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $187.42 and April live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $189.52. But within an hour of the futures market's close, cash cattle trade started to develop and to the live cattle market's favor -- believe it or not – prices are being marked higher. Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $186 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some live sales were also reported in Iowa at $187 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average there. There were a handful of cattle traded Wednesday afternoon at $290 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- steady with a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.40 ($306.79) and select up $1.93 ($272.92) with a movement of 129 loads (66.78 loads of choice, 25.09 loads of select, 12.32 loads of trim and 24.70 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that cattle have now been sold in both regions, it's likely that any more cleanup trade that develops is steady with the prices established already this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may have been skeptical of trading higher throughout the day, but with the tremendous support that traders are seeing from the countryside as feeder cattle demand continues to grow stronger and stronger, traders continued to push the feeder cattle contracts higher through Thursday's trade. January feeders closed $1.12 higher at $253.45, March feeders closed $0.70 higher at $252.10 and April feeders closed $0.75 higher at $253.12. When you look at the feeder cattle market's charts, it's exciting to see that the recent surge in prices now has the complex trading at levels not last seen since early August when the commodity market plummeted. The spot January contract's next resistance plane is at $255. At La Junta Livestock Commission, in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers sold sharply higher across all weight classes and feeder heifers sold mostly $11.00 to $16.00 higher with instances of even higher prices. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 40%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/20/2024: up $0.01, $254.27.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though traders weren't overly impressed with the morning's export sales report, they allowed the contracts to close mildly higher as they regained some technical footing in the futures complex on Wednesday afternoon. December lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $80.80, February lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $84.65 and April lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $88.92. The market's fundamentals continue to lag behind and offer little to no support as there were only 810 cash hogs sold today, and afternoon pork cutout values were lower yet again. Hog prices are still not available on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 810 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.65. Pork cutouts total 346.42 loads with 280.09 loads of pork cuts and 66.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.47, $93.13. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head 0 1,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/19/2024: down $0.26, $87.83.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that Thursday's market saw very little interest, it's likely that packers have already fulfilled their needs of the cash market this week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Bids Surface in the Cash Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the market is cautious to get ahead of itself without seeing what develops fundamentally. Bids are currently on the table in the cash cattle market, but feedlot managers have yet to accept any bids. December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 468.75 points

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,300 mt for 2024 were up 1% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,300 mt), South Korea (3,300 mt), and China (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2024 were down 9% from the previous week but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (4,100 mt), South Korea (3,300 mt) and Japan (2,000).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to hold its breath, seeming to wait to see what develops fundamentally this week in the cash market. It is a fundamental improvement to see boxed beef prices higher, but before traders can find much stability in that price direction change, they need to see multiple days of stronger boxed beef prices which would show consistency from consumers. December live cattle are down $0.22 at $186.07, February live cattle are down $0.15 at $187.77 and April live cattle are up $0.17 at $189.87. In terms of the cash cattle market, the market is seeing a few bids currently being reported at $185 in Kansas, $185 in Colorado and $185 to $187 live in Nebraska, along with $290 dressed in Nebraska. But at this point, feedlot managers have elected to pass on those offers and are hoping to see packer interest improve as time plays on. Asking prices are around $187 to $188 in the South and at $292 plus in the North. Trade could develop this afternoon, but it's just as likely that trade could be delayed until Friday as packers and feedlot managers again will go toe-to-toe this week.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.26 ($306.65) and select up $2.56 ($273.55) with a movement of 63 loads (24.07 loads of choice, 12.54 loads of select).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may be hesitant about trading higher without having seen what the cash cattle market is going to do this week, but the feeder cattle complex seems confident enough with the strong buyer demand in the countryside to moderately advance its contracts again. January feeders are up $1.27 at $253.60, March feeders are up $0.75 at $252.15 and April feeders are up $0.75 at $253.12. Buyer demand in the countryside for both feeders and calves has been utterly impeccable this week and is evidenced by the CME feeder cattle index, which closed Wednesday afternoon at $254.26.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the market wasn't overly impressed by the morning's export sales report and even though morning pork cutout values are slightly higher, traders are wanting more fundamental reassurance. December lean hogs are down $0.02 at $80.50, February lean hogs are down $0.02 at $84.45 and April lean hogs are up $0.22 at $88.85. Once again, this morning wild swings are currently being seen in the pork cutouts as the belly is up $10.39, but the picnic is down $9.29.

The projected lean hog index for 11/20/2024 is down $0.39 at $87.44, and the actual index for 11/19/2024 is down $0.26 at $87.83. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report are unavailable because no hogs have been traded yet throughout the day. We can see however that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $83.58. Pork cutouts total 183.17 loads with 140.92 loads of pork cuts and 42.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.55, $95.15.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Expected Ahead of Cattle On Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle closed higher but not with the exuberance it had the previous three days. The larger price rally was a surprise relative to the cash weakness seen for live cattle, but it was not a surprise relative to the higher prices being paid for feeder cattle in the country. That may have run its course as traders turned their attention to the upcoming Cattle on Feed report to be released Friday. The estimates are for on-feed as of Nov. 1 at 99.9% with a range of 99.5% to 100.1%. October placements are estimated at 103.3% with a range of 101.4% to 107.0%. Marketings in October are estimated at 105.1% with a range of 104.7% to 105.4%. It is not surprising to see a wide range of estimates for placements as that number had been difficult to predict for quite some time. Boxed beef price closed lower on Wednesday with choice down $2.40 and select down $0.92. The anticipation is for cash cattle to trade lower again this week.

Hog futures showed a nice turnaround Wednesday with numerous contracts posting triple-digit gains. The market may have completed its technical correction which may generate further buying interest in anticipation of continued strength. The packers were aggressive with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash up $2.55. Pork cutouts did not echo that gain as they slipped $0.08. Packers may need more hogs and might increase bids again Thursday as they need to supply the higher slaughter pace and purchase ahead for the Thanksgiving week. Weekly export sales today are expected to be better than last week and may provide some direction. Hog slaughter on Saturday has been difficult to pin down with the current estimate being around 132,000.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong cattle marketings in October are expected on the Cattle on Feed report, indicating strong demand.	1)	Traders positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report may leave futures choppy and sideways at best.
2)	The rebound of cattle futures recently has turned the market higher providing traders more confidence to buy back into the market, anticipating tight supplies and higher prices.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to struggle, indicating reduced consumer demand. This may leave packers less aggressive in the cash market this week.
3)	The rebound of hog futures may have negated the recent downtrend. Futures may return to the highs as fund traders may be active buyers.	3)	Pork cutouts have not been performing well this week which may temper the upside potential for cash and futures.
4)	Hog weights last week were 0.6 pounds lower than a year ago, averaging 287.4 pounds.	4)	Weekly hog weights increased by 0.8 pounds from the previous week, averaging 287.4 pounds.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Closes Mixed With Hope of Better Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed as the lean hog contracts finally found some technical footing in the futures complex, the feeder cattle market rallied through the day's end, but the live cattle complex closed on both sides of steady. A handful of cattle sold in Nebraska at $290, but not enough traded to say that any sort of trend has been established for the week. December corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 139.53 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded in an uneasy manner throughout Wednesday's trade as the market would have liked to continue with its upward trend, but without seeing better demand from consumers and still not knowing exactly where cash cattle prices are going to fall -- traded allowed the market to end the day mixed. December live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $186.30, February live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $187.92 and April live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $189.70. The cash cattle market did see a little bit of trade develop in Nebraska at $290, but there wasn't enough volume traded to say that any sort of a weekly trend was established. Asking prices for cattle in the South remain firm at $187 to $188, and are still unestablished in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.40 ($306.39) and select down $0.92 ($270.99) with a movement of 128 loads (88.96 loads of choice, 22.07 loads of select, 5.58 loads of trim and 11.36 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2.00 lower. Trade could begin to develop on Thursday, but with packers hoping to get cattle bought cheaper again this week, trade may not develop until Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex wasn't able to close fully higher, the feeder cattle market regained its courage ahead of the day's end and successfully rounded out the day on a stronger note. At first it appeared as though traders were skeptical of supporting the contracts anymore without seeing first what the fed cash cattle market was going to do this week, but low and behold, as the day traded onward traders seemed to soften to the idea of simply finding support in the market's strong demand in the countryside while allowed the contracts to close mildly higher. It wouldn't be surprising to see the market grow anxious again on Thursday if no cash cattle trade has developed as traders are not only looking to see what develops in the cash cattle market this week but are also likely going to begin to brace for Friday's Cattle on Feed report which is expected to show an increase on on-feed totals and placements. January feeders closed $0.32 higher at $252.32, March feeders closed $0.15 higher at $251.40 and April feeders closed $0.22 higher at $252.37. At Philip Livestock Auction in Philip, South Dakota, compared to last week feeder steers under 450 pounds sold steady, steers weighing 450 to 500 pounds traded $5.00 to $7.00 higher, steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold steady and steers weighing 600 to 650 pounds sold $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 11%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/19/2024: up $0.58, $254.26.

LEAN HOGS:

Thankfully the lean hog complex stumbled into some fundamental support which helped the market regain some footing in the futures complex. December lean hogs closed $0.97 higher at $80.52, February lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $84.47 and April lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $88.62. The midday carcass price was higher but by the day's close prices dipped lower yet again as the belly fell $5.31 and the rib dropped $4.54, to name the market's biggest day-over-day losses. Meanwhile, the cash market was able to close higher, but it's likely that with today's purchase of 3,125 head that packers won't be very aggressive in the cash market for the remainder of the week. December lean hogs closed $0.97 higher at $80.52, February lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $84.47 and April lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $88.62. Pork cutouts total 292.40 loads with 251.32 loads of pork cuts and 41.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.08, $95.60. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 40,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/18/2024: down $0.40, $88.09.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have fulfilled the bulk of their cash needs for the week and won't participate much in the market until next week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Jump Higher while Cattle Pause Their Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing mixed interest this morning as the lean hog contracts are successfully rallying into Wednesday's noon hour but the cattle contracts are trading slightly lower. More than anything the cattle complex hopes to find some better fundamental support to reassure traders of their recent move. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 65.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After trading substantially higher earlier in the week, the live cattle complex is now trading slightly lower as traders need to see followed-through fundamental support before they'll likely advance the contracts again. Not to mention when there's a Cattle on Feed report set to be released, traders usually pull back from the market ahead of seeing what the report yields. December live cattle are down $0.30 at $186.27, February live cattle are down $0.12 at $187.87 and April live cattle are up $0.30 at $189.72. The cash cattle market is still quiet without any bids currently being offered. Asking prices are noted in the South at $187 to $188, but are still not established in the North. Packer demand could improve throughout the day, but it's most likely that trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.48 ($308.31) and select down $0.99 ($270.92) with a movement of 64 loads (40.67 loads of choice, 10.97 loads of select, 5.38 loads of trim and 6.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The momentum that helped drive the feeder cattle contracts higher has simmered down as trades are now looking around needing fundamental support to give them reassurance in their recent move. January feeders are down $0.05 at $251.95, March feeders are down $0.20 at $251.05 and April feeders are down $0.10 at $252.05. Even though buyer demand is still excellent throughout the countryside for both feeders and calves, it's likely that traders will remain cautious until they see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report yields.

LEAN HOGS:

The cattle contracts may be trading in a slightly lower manner, but the lean hog complex finally attracted traders which has helped propel the contracts into Wednesday's noon hour. Also helping push the contracts along is the higher note in pork cutout values, which is mostly derived from the belly's $8.28 jump, and the picnic's $6.96 jump. December lean hogs are up $1.05 at $80.60, February lean hogs are up $1.82 at $84.70 and April lean hogs are up $1.75 at $88.85.

The projected lean hog index for 11/19/2024 is down $0.26 at $87.83, and the actual index for 11/18/2024 is down $0.40 at $88.09. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $3.16 with a weighted average price of $85.16, ranging from $78.00 to $86.00 on 2,171 head and a five-day rolling average of $84.51. Pork cutouts total 137.23 loads with 112.02 loads of pork cuts and 25.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.29, $96.97.