GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets traded higher through Thursday's end, but the live cattle complex was skeptical ahead of seeing what the cash cattle market was going to do. Thankfully shortly after the day's closing bell, cash cattle trade started to develop, and prices were marked higher. December corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 461.88 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,300 mt for 2024 were up 1% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,300 mt), South Korea (3,300 mt), and China (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2024 were down 9% from the previous week but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (4,100 mt), South Korea (3,300 mt) and Japan (2,000).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts rounded out the day mostly lower as traders were nervous to support the contracts ahead of seeing what the week's cash cattle market was going to accomplish, and upon knowing that Friday's Cattle on Feed report is likely to be somewhat bearish as it's expected to showcase steady to somewhat greater on-feed totals and higher placements. December live cattle closed $0.70 lower at $185.60, February live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $187.42 and April live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $189.52. But within an hour of the futures market's close, cash cattle trade started to develop and to the live cattle market's favor -- believe it or not – prices are being marked higher. Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $186 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some live sales were also reported in Iowa at $187 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average there. There were a handful of cattle traded Wednesday afternoon at $290 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- steady with a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.40 ($306.79) and select up $1.93 ($272.92) with a movement of 129 loads (66.78 loads of choice, 25.09 loads of select, 12.32 loads of trim and 24.70 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that cattle have now been sold in both regions, it's likely that any more cleanup trade that develops is steady with the prices established already this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The live cattle complex may have been skeptical of trading higher throughout the day, but with the tremendous support that traders are seeing from the countryside as feeder cattle demand continues to grow stronger and stronger, traders continued to push the feeder cattle contracts higher through Thursday's trade. January feeders closed $1.12 higher at $253.45, March feeders closed $0.70 higher at $252.10 and April feeders closed $0.75 higher at $253.12. When you look at the feeder cattle market's charts, it's exciting to see that the recent surge in prices now has the complex trading at levels not last seen since early August when the commodity market plummeted. The spot January contract's next resistance plane is at $255. At La Junta Livestock Commission, in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers sold sharply higher across all weight classes and feeder heifers sold mostly $11.00 to $16.00 higher with instances of even higher prices. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 40%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/20/2024: up $0.01, $254.27.
LEAN HOGS:
Even though traders weren't overly impressed with the morning's export sales report, they allowed the contracts to close mildly higher as they regained some technical footing in the futures complex on Wednesday afternoon. December lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $80.80, February lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $84.65 and April lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $88.92. The market's fundamentals continue to lag behind and offer little to no support as there were only 810 cash hogs sold today, and afternoon pork cutout values were lower yet again. Hog prices are still not available on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 810 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.65. Pork cutouts total 346.42 loads with 280.09 loads of pork cuts and 66.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.47, $93.13. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head 0 1,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/19/2024: down $0.26, $87.83.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that Thursday's market saw very little interest, it's likely that packers have already fulfilled their needs of the cash market this week.
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