Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Close $3.00 to $4.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was met with tremendous trade support following Christmas day as traders were pleased to see stronger boxed and pork cutout values. No significant trade volumes accumulated throughout the day in the fed cash cattle market -- but it is assumed that prices will again be higher this week when trade does finally break loose. March corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $13.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a rallying day for the live cattle complex as the market was given plenty of reasons to trade higher following the Christmas holiday. First of all, the jump in boxed beef prices was a delight for traders to note as demand continues to be a relentless factor in the market's rallying momentum. Secondly, it was also helpful that traders jumped on board with the notion of moving the contracts higher, but the feeder cattle market did set the tone as its contracts closed anywhere from $3.00 to $4.00 higher. And last but certainly not least, the belief that cash cattle prices will trade higher again this week is helpful as well. Bids of $190 live and $305 dressed were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no significant volumes traded throughout the day. Asking prices remain firm at $192 to $193 in the South and $310 in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.41 ($320.39) and select up $2.02 ($288.77) with a movement of 186 loads (94.22 loads of choice, 36.88 loads of select, 25.01 loads of trim and 30.11 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With the board's support, the fed cash cattle market should have no trouble trading higher again this week as feedlot managers are current and have plenty of leverage favoring their position.

FEEDER CATTLE:

In the marketplace there are good days, bad days, lackluster days, and there are also days like today that were utter dynamite for the complex. The feeder cattle market was once again the rallying force for the cattle sector as it helped propel its contracts $3.00 to $4.00 higher but also encouraged the live cattle market to trade higher too. And while we still sit in the "in-between time" in terms of the Christmas and New Year holidays, it's hard to say that the market's move was unjustified when the market's fundamentals are as strong as they are. It will be interesting to see in the days ahead how the complex handles the long-term resistance at $260 as the nearby contracts are trading at that threshold. January feeders closed $3.45 higher at $259.30, March feeders closed $4.50 higher at $259.50 and April feeders closed $4.17 higher at $260.02. The CME feeder cattle index 12/25/2024: down $2.28, $260.77.

LEAN HOGS:

With the added support of stronger pork cutout values -- thanks to significant retail buying following the Christmas holiday -- the lean hog complex was able to close steady to somewhat higher in most of the market's nearby contracts. February lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $84.20, April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $89.25 and June lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $101.55. In terms of individual pork cutouts there wasn't one cut that rallied notably more than any of the rest, but instead, today's cuts were a stable blend of mostly higher gains. But what was most significant in terms of the cutout report was seeing a whopping 528.77 loads moved -- which is somewhat expected after a holiday but is also a good sign of demand as well. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average price of $79.08 on 4,630 head. Pork cutouts totaled 528.77 loads with 480.12 loads of pork cuts and 48.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.07, $95.69. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week and a year ago. CME lean hog index 12/20/2024: up $0.40, $84.75.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have already fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Prices Jump Higher After the Christmas Holiday

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour as retailers are refilling their coolers after the holiday rush which has consequently pushed both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices higher. Bids of $190 live and $305 dressed have surfaced in Nebraska. March corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $11.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 29.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Christmas thankfully put a little cheer back into the live cattle complex as the market is confidently trading back above its 40-day moving average in the spot February contract, and it's likely that fed cash cattle will trade for higher money again this week. December live cattle are up $1.55 at $192.35, February live cattle are up $2.17 at $189.55 and April live cattle are up $2.30 at $191.85. If the market can sustain this momentum through the day's end and close above the 40-day moving average, it signs trader optimism and could help the market turn its direction back higher again. Some action has started to develop in the cash cattle market as bids have surfaced in Nebraska $190 and $305 dressed. Asking prices are firm at $192 to $193 live in the South and $310 dressed in the North. Packer interest could improve throughout the day but it's likely that trade could be delayed at this point until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.84 ($319.82) and select up $0.98 ($287.73) with a movement of 145 loads (66.62 loads of choice, 30.61 loads of select, 20.89 loads of trim and 26.56 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Talk about a wild way to come back from the Christmas holiday break! The feeder cattle complex isn't being shy about its momentum as it's pushing a bolstering $3.00 to $4.00 rally and is again close to resistance levels at $260 in the spot January contract. I'm skeptical of whether the market will be able to surpass the market's resistance given that it's not an ideal time to take on such market opposition. With the New Year's holiday just around the corner, the market doesn't fully shake the holiday fog until after the New Year. At which point everyone is fully back to work and ready to do business. From a fundamental sense, the market is prime to take on such a challenge, but again, I don't know if there's enough weight behind the market's momentum currently. January feeders are up $3.55 at $259.37, March feeders are up $4.15 at $259.15 and April feeders are up $3.80 at $259.65.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher as the market is thrilled to see a little better support in stronger pork cutout values. February lean hogs are down $0.02 at $84.35, April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $89.20 and June lean hogs are up $0.25 at $101.50. Thankfully the rib's $3.78 jump along with both the ham's $2.87 jump and the loin's $2.77 gain are off-setting the belly's $2.65 decline.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of submission issues. Pork cutouts total 410.96 loads with 374.26 loads of pork cuts and 36.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.31, $95.93.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Trading Activity Expected To Be Light

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade is expected today but it is uncertain what prices will do. The USDA did not release any reports on Tuesday keeping traders guessing what boxed beef prices did. The hope is that cash cattle will trade no worse than steady this week. However, the packers had purchased a significant amount of cattle ahead possibly leaving them in the position to hold the line on prices or even maintain lower bids due to next week also being a holiday week. It may be up to feedlots if they want to hold cattle over or move some even if it means steady to lower prices. Feeder cattle futures fell back hovering near the lows of the range and possibly testing support.

Hogs were mixed on Tuesday and much the same is expected today. Traders did not have the cash or cutout reports to provide direction. The expectation is for cash to be lower today but that will depend on whether the packers may want to position themselves ahead of another holiday-shortened week. Futures are expected to remain sideways possibly through the end of the year as holiday demand is assessed.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If cash cattle trade higher this week, futures may move back toward the highs over time.	1)	Cattle futures may drift sideways through the rest of the year with traders unwilling to establish long-term positions.
2)	Beef demand is expected to remain strong through the end of the year. Cattle supplies continue to remain tight.	2)	It is uncertain when the border will be reopened to cattle imports from Mexico. That would put initial pressure on the market as traders react to the news.
3)	The Hog and Pigs report has been digested and traders have adjusted to the numbers. This may provide confidence to buy into the market.	3)	Hogs need to continue to see strong demand or futures will break below technical support as further liquidation could take place.
4)	The Packers may be aggressive today as they may purchase hogs ahaed for another holiday-shortened week. Demand may be better than expected.	4)	Cash hogs may trade lower today as the packers may have much of the purchased finished for the week.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Dabble in Complex Vaguely

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex puttered through Tuesday's early close as traders paid the market little attention throughout the day. A single bid of $190 was offered in Kansas, but no cattle have sold just yet. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 390.08 points.

USDA is not updating its pages today (December 24) or on Christmas Day (December 25). The markets will also be closed on December 25, so regular DTN market commentary will resume on Thursday, December 26. Merry Christmas friends!

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mostly higher as traders hope that the market's fundamentals will prevail after the Christmas holiday especially in the cash market. December live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $190.80, February live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $187.37 and April live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $189.55. A single bid of $190 was offered throughout the day in Kansas but given that that price is below last week's weighted average, it's unlikely that any cattle get bought at that price. Feedlot managers have their eyes set on higher prices again this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 and remain unestablished still in the North.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers didn't get very many cattle bought last week it's likely that they'll have to participate in this week's cash market more than they'd like.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rounded out the day fully lower as trader interest remained nearly nonexistent throughout Christmas Eve. January feeders closed $0.37 lower at $255.85, March feeders closed $0.67 lower at $255.00 and April feeders closed $0.70 lower at $256.07. As I mentioned earlier, it's unlikely that the feeder cattle contracts will do much besides trade sideways until after the New Year holiday when regular feeder cattle sales resume in the countryside and buyers will likely be eager to fill their new orders.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the Christmas Eve Day mixed as the markets nearby contracts closed slightly lower while the deferred months maintained their higher position. February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $84.37, April lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $89.17 and June lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $101.25. The market continues to hope that its fundamentals will improve as consumer demand hasn't been reliable as of late.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers already bought 6,000 head in the cash market on Monday it's likely that they'll thinly participate in the market throughout the remainder of the week.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Trades Mixed Ahead of Christmas

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a quiet marketplace today as most market participants have already closed their books and shut their computers to enjoy some Christmas cheer. The markets will be closing early today (1:05 pm EST) so DTN's closing market commentary will be available earlier today as well. March corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 290.68 points.

USDA is not updating its pages today (December 24) or on Christmas Day (December 25). The markets will also be closed on December 25, so regular DTN market commentary will resume on Thursday, December 26. Merry Christmas friends!

LIVE CATTLE:

Although the market is trading in its typical, half-hearted Christmas Eve fashion as most traders have already checked out to enjoy the Christman festivities most of the live cattle contracts are trading higher. December live cattle are down $0.07 at $190.90, February live cattle are up $0.15 at $187.60 and April live cattle are steady at $189.70. The market continues to dance around the 40-day moving average as that's been a threshold in which it's struggled to reconquer following last week's lower ascend. And while the contracts are trading slightly higher at Tuesday's noon hour, it's unlikely that there will be enough gusto back today's movement to take on that threshold. But if the cash cattle market is able to trade higher later this week, then it could be a possibility. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 but are still not established in the North. There's a bid currently being offered in Kansas at $190, but it's unlikely that anything gets traded at that price and before the Christmas holiday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly lower as the market's momentum from Monday's higher close has puttered out. January feeders are down $0.17 at $256.42, March feeders are down $0.42 at $255.57 and April feeders are down $0.32 at $256.45. More than anything it's likely that the feeder cattle complex chops sideways until after the New Year when feeder cattle sales resume and prices could likely be higher in the countryside as buyers will be anxious to fill their new orders after the long holiday break.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly lower as it too suffers from light-hearted interest from traders today. February lean hogs are up $0.25 at $84.62, April lean hogs are down $0.42 at $89.20 and June lean hogs are down $0.10 at $101.20. Following yesterday's mixed Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the lean hog complex could likely see little trader interest throughout the rest of the week as their big-ticket item for the week has already been unveiled and packers were fairly aggressive in Monday's cash market as they bought just over 6,000 head.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders' Interest Is Expected to Be Limited

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures chopped around spending little time in positive territory in general. The Cattle of Feed report was digested and provided little direction for traders. Cash likely will not trade until later in the week and may be lighter than usual due to the holidays. It is uncertain how aggressive the packers will be due to having purchased cattle for deferred delivery last week. They could try to do the same this week to better position themselves. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.13 and select up $0.84. January feeder cattle showed significant strength on Monday as it was the contract that traders were able to push to take advantage of the movement to scalp a quick profit. It is a shorter trading day today with the markets closing at 12:05 Central time.

Traders seemed to position themselves ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report by spreading or liquidating to limit risk. The report did not show anything significant and is neutral to slightly bearish. All hogs and pigs on December 1 were 101%, kept for breeding was 100% and kept for marketing was 101%. All hogs and pigs kept for marketing categories were 1% higher than expectations. The Sep-Nov pig crop was 1.5% higher totaling 35.238 million head and a record number for this quarter. Pigs per litter were 1.4% higher than expected. The rest of the categories were close to expectations. The packers were aggressive in the cash market with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $2.61. Pork cutouts did not fare well declining $2.66. The packers may not be very aggressive today as it is a shorter trading day and Christmas Eve and most may not be willing to do business.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures are holding support and are trading in a sideways pattern. Traders may be willing buyers at technical support levels.	1)	The packers had been able to purchase cattle for deferred delivery last week which may limit their need to be aggressive this week or they may be able to further increase ownership to position themselves better for the following week.
2)	Cash cattle trade is not expected until later in the week but the expectation is for cash to be no less than steady with last week.	2)	Light trading activity may result in cattle futures drifting lower as no usual government reports will be available.
3)	The recent decline of hog futures and the weakness on Monday may have the bearish aspect of the Hogs and Pigs report factored in. The break might be viewed as a buying opportunity.	3)	Trading activity in hog futures may be light allowing some of the bearish aspects fo the report to influence the market resulting in lower prices.
4)	The packers will need hogs this week and are expected to be aggressive after Christmas. This should provide support to the market.	4)	Without some of the usual government reports today, many traders may opt to stay out of the market if they do not see any significant reaction to the report. That generally results in price weakness.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Market Powers On

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Besides the feeder cattle market's decision to power through the day despite it being a Monday on a holiday-shortened week, both the live cattle and lean hog markets closed lower. The markets will be open tomorrow until 1:05 pm Eastern, so DTN will provide regular commentary, but no USDA reports will be available. March corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 66.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the day mixed as traders were skeptical of overly supporting the market following last week's trend of a lower decline. December live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $190.97, February live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $187.45 and April live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $189.70. Unfortunately, today's lackluster mindset kept the spot February contract below its 40-day moving average as the market didn't feel empowered enough to climb above that threshold at this point. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and trade is likely delayed until after Christmas. New showlists for the week are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but slightly higher in Nebraska and Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- steady with a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle sold in a wide range from $302 to $315, but most of the transactions happened at $305, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $191, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 49,864 head. Of that, 61% (30,544 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 39% (19,320 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.13 ($315.98) and select up $0.84 ($286.75) with a movement of 114 loads (66.33 loads of choice, 20.60 loads of select, 13.50 loads of trim and 13.97 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though it's a holiday week, with packers only buying 49,000 head in last week's market it's likely that they'll have to be active participants again in this week's market in order to avoid being short bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex was sheepish throughout the day, the feeder cattle contracts powered through Monday's market and successfully rounded out the day higher. January feeders closed $1.00 higher at $256.60, March feeders closed $0.17 higher at $256.00 and April feeders closed $0.02 higher at $256.77. Traders likely viewed the lighter placements on Friday's Cattle on Feed report as a bullish factor which helped move the market higher throughout Monday's trade. Most sale barns are closed until after the New Year holiday. The CME feeder cattle index 12/20/2024: up $0.85, $263.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex again fell lower as trader support simply wasn't available in today's market. February lean hogs closed $1.55 lower at $84.37, April lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $89.62 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $101.30. It was surprising to see packers buying as aggressively as they did in today's cash market as they purchased right over 6,000 head. But pork cutout values dipped lower as the bell along fell $9.35 and the rib closed $4.44 lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.61 with a weighted average price of $79.56 on 6,262 head. Pork cutouts totaled 301.50 loads with 264.25 loads of pork cuts and 37.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.66, $94.62. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/19/2024: up $0.14, $84.35.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it will be Christmas Eve, it's likely that packers won't be very aggressive in Tuesday's cash hog market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Summarize the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour as the market simply isn't seeing much trader participation besides in the feeder cattle market. It's likely that this whole week the market will trade halfheartedly as everyone steps away to enjoy Christmas. March corn is up 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 114.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly lower, although a couple of the late summer/early fall months of 2025 are trading slightly higher. More than anything, Monday's sluggish tone in the complex seems to be stemming simply from the fact that it's a holiday week, and that the market isn't going to get much participation from anyone. December live cattle are down $0.42 at $190.90, February live cattle are down $0.95 at $187.45 and April live cattle are down $0.55 at $189.57. New showlists for the week are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but slightly higher in Nebraska and Colorado.

Last week Northern dressed cattle sold in a wide range from $302 to $315, but most of the transactions happened at $305, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $191, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.80 ($315.05) and select up $1.92 ($287.83) with a movement of 32 loads (16.48 loads of choice, 7.66 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market would like to recover some of the position lost last week, but without the full support of the live cattle complex, the market is remaining cautious. January feeders are up $1.05 at $256.65, March feeders are up $0.22 at $256.05 and April feeders are up $0.07 at $256.82. Some of the feeder cattle market's support could be stemming from the fact that Friday's Cattle on Feed Report showed that placements were lighter than a year ago.

LEAN HOGS:

It's another grim, lethargically day for the lean hog complex as the market isn't seeing much develop in terms of fundamental support or trader interest. Later Monday afternoon, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released which could slightly affect the market's behavior on Tuesday, but with it being the week of Christmas, not much is expected to surface in the marketplace this week. February lean hogs are down $2.07 at $83.85, April lean hogs are down $1.57 at $88.97 and June lean hogs are down $1.22 at $100.87.

The projected lean hog index for 12/20/2024 is up $0.40 at $84.75, and the actual index for 12/19/2024 is up $0.14 at $84.35. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 282 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.84. Pork cutouts total 166.06 loads with 148.03 loads of pork cuts and 18.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.56, $93.72.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Traders to Position For the Hogs & Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded steady for Southern live cattle and $2.00 higher for Northern dressed cattle for the week. That provided the confidence for traders to buy futures more aggressively. They also had positioned themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report as the liquidation subsided. The Cattle on Feed report was about as neutral as a report could be. On feed on December 1 was 100% compared to the average guess of 99.9%. Placements in November were 96% compared to the estimate of 95.9%. Marketed in November was 99% compared to the estimate of 98.2%. This is the first time in quite a while that the placement number was very close to the estimate. That category has been difficult to guess for quite some time. This is a holiday-shortened week with fewer cattle needed for slaughter leaving the potential for steady trade. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $4.84 and select up $1.80. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 7,451 contracts in live cattle increasing their net long position to 136,213 futures contracts. They added 794 long futures to feeder cattle increasing their net long position to 19,116 contracts.

Hog futures were able to post strong gains with The Frebruarty contract heading the charge and moving to the highest close since December 9. Traders seemed to view the price decline over the past month as a buying opportunity despite the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released today. The trading activity is expected to be subdued today as traders position ahead of the report. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs on December 1 is 100.0%. Hogs kept for breeding at 100.0%. Hogs kept for marketing at 99.9%. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.50 on Friday. There is little expectation for stronger cash today. Cutout values increased $1.13. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their long positions by 17,107 contracts with their current net long position at 118,899.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady to higher cash cattle last week and expectations for steady cash this week should support the market.	1)	The packers may not be very aggressive this holiday week as they may have a significant amount of cattle purchased ahead. Prices could drift lower.
2)	The Cattle on Feed report was neutral leaving the potential for traders to feel more comfortable adding to their long positions.	2)	There is concern the demand for beef could slow resulting in lower slaughter. Feedlots may not receive higher prices by holding out for higher cash.
3)	The Hogs & Pigs report may show some adjustments relative to the previous report which may show the supply of hogs may be less than reported.	3)	The upcoming Hogs & Pigs report could result in traders positioning ahead of the report by liquidating some of their long positions.
4)	Traders were confident buying more aggressively on Friday ahead of the report due to the confidence demand will remain strong.	4)	Reduced hog slaughter during the holiday may leave the packers less aggressive. There is little strength expected in the cash market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Keep the Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a successful day for the livestock contracts as all three of the markets closed higher by Friday's ending bell. And to help matters even more, it was reassuring for cattlemen to find the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report neutral to somewhat bullish. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $11.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 498.02 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $2.32, February live cattle down $3.63; January feeder cattle down $2.05, March feeder cattle down $1.85; February lean hogs up $0.33, April lean hogs up $0.78; March corn up $0.04, May corn up $0.03.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was relieving to see the live cattle contracts close higher as the market has been pressured throughout the vast majority of the week. And it was especially comforting to see the spot February contract close above the market's 40-day moving average as that hopefully indicates that the market won't be subject to more dramatic downward pressure in the days ahead. December live cattle closed $0.97 higher at $191.32, February live cattle closed $1.85 higher at $188.40 and April live cattle closed $1.52 higher at $190.12. No new cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as most of the week's buying was done on Thursday. This week Northern dressed business has had a huge range of $302 to $315, but mostly at $305, $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. While Southern live deals have been marked at $191, fully steady with last week's weighted averages.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 15,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 617,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $4.84 ($315.85) and select up $1.80 ($285.91) with a movement of 107 loads (65.70 loads of choice, 19.22 loads of select, 9.05 loads of trim and 12.62 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though next week is a holiday shorted week for Christmas, packers will still need to stay active in the market to avoid becoming short bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to maintain its higher position through the day's end as the market found it comforting that the live cattle contracts closed higher and that the week's fed cash cattle market traded steady to $2.00 higher as well. Then, later in the afternoon, it was also supportive that the month's Cattle on Feed (COF) report had no alarming discrepancies compared to the pre-report estimates. 

January feeders closed $1.12 higher at $255.60, March feeders closed $1.25 higher at $255.82 and April feeders closed $1.30 higher at $256.75. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers traded $3.00 to $8.00 lower and steer and heifer calves sold $7.00 to $12.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 45%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/19/2024: down $0.08, $262.15.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to power through the day, rallying off the market's newly established support plane earlier this week. February lean hogs closed $2.30 higher at $85.92, April lean hogs closed $1.90 higher at $90.52 and June lean hogs closed $1.30 higher at $102.10. It was also encouraging to see pork cutout values close higher, but the belly played a significant role in that as it alone jumped $13.51 higher and the rib also climbed $3.95 higher. Monday will be a big day for the lean hog complex as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is set to be released. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.50 with a weighted average price of $76.95 on 299 head. Pork cutouts totaled 239.15 loads with 204.89 loads of pork cuts and 34.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.13, $97.28. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 56,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 148,000 head. The CME lean hog index 12/18/2024: up $0.05, $84.21.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it's a holiday shorted week packers won't likely buy much in next week's market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Stronger Tones Sweep the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a refreshing day in the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. This afternoon the industry will be closely watching to see what comes of the Cattle on Feed report and if any more cash cattle trade does indeed develop. March corn is up 5 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 799.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Thursday's slight derailment in terms of the live cattle contracts' performance, it's refreshing to see the contracts again trading higher on Friday. After plummeting to a level that the spot February contract swooped below the market's 40-day moving average, the additional fundamental support of the cash cattle market's trade seems to set well with the market. I'm hopeful that traders deem the futures market's correction this past week sufficient and that no more immediate downside pressure will surface in the complex again soon. But I know that with their decision to push the contracts lower, all having been for technical reasons, unfortunately, we can't put too much confidence in what the market's fundamentals accomplish. Some more cash cattle trade could develop after the Cattle on Feed report is released, but at this point, the market sits idle with only one bid in Kansas at $191 being shown. This week Northern dressed business has had a range of $303 to $308, mostly $305, $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live deals have been marked at $191, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. Note that Texas has been very quiet with no to little sales reported.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.42 ($316.27) and select down $0.55 ($283.56) with a movement of 75 loads (49.08 loads of choice, 12.80 loads of select, 7.33 loads of trim and 5.50 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market has seemed to have found some technical stability following Thursday's lower close, and it's also helpful that the fed cash cattle market traded cattle steady to $2.00 higher on Thursday as well. January feeders are up $1.07 at $255.55, March feeders are up $1.35 at $255.92 and April feeders are up $1.27 at $256.72. So long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade in a higher direction, it's likely that the feeder cattle contracts will also be able to round out the week on a stronger note as well.

LEAN HOGS:

Could it be that after some strenuous pressure early this week, the lean hog complex has regained some technical footing in the marketplace? If Friday's direction and technical momentum have anything to do with it – I'd say the answer is yes as today's higher move solely stems from trader objectivity as the market's fundamentals aren't lending support. Please note that on Monday, December 23rd the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released. February lean hogs are up $1.52 at $85.15, April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $89.97 and June lean hogs are up $1.02 at $101.82.

The projected lean hog index for 12/19/2024 is up $0.14 at $84.35, and the actual index for 12/18/2024 is up $0.05 at $84.21. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 345 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.99. Pork cutouts total 183.59 loads with 166.55 loads of pork cuts and 17.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $95.97.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look Ahead to the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It has not been a good week for cattle with futures declining each day to close at the lowest level since December 9^th. The February contract fell $5.47 over the past four days. This may have established a top at which it will be difficult to regain. However, cash cattle traded steady in the South and $2.00 higher in the North. This may provide support for today's trade. Although the Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon, The selling may have been overdone and futures may bounce. The average estimates for the Cattle on Feed report are for on feed as of December 1 at 99.9% of a year ago with the range of estimates for 99.4% to 100.3%. Placements in November at 95.9% with a range of 92.6% to 98.9% and marketed in November at 98.2% with a range of 97.7% to 98.7%. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $5.05 and select down $1.44.

Hog futures traded in a tight range of about $1.00 as uncertainly clouded the market. There is uncertainty about demand in early 2025 and uncertainty over the upcoming Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released on Monday. Today's trading may be confined to positioning ahead of the report. The National Daily Direct Aternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.42 as the packers wanted to finish their weekly purchases. This may leave them less aggressive today as buying is likely finished for the week. The weakness of cutouts may keep a little pressure on the market. Slaughter remains strong as the current demand is holding and hogs need to be processed. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 145,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may be overdone to the downside and may bounce today due to cash cattle trading steady to $2.00 higher.	1)	February feeder cattle futures fell and closed below technical support which could result in further selling pressure to develop.
2)	Technical selling has taken place over the past four days and should have run its course. Traders may have finished positioning themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report which may allow futures to bounce.	2)	The recent weakness in cattle futures may be difficult to overcome as export demand has slowed and domestic demand may hold steady at best.
3)	The packers were aggressive buyers in the cash market Thursday indicating continued strong demand for pork.	3)	The recent trend has been down and may continue that way. Each time the market shows strength the level it reaches is lower than the previous rebound.
4)	Hog futures may build support as the market has traded sideways to higher. Nearby contracts have remained sideway with later contracts showing better strength. The Hogs & Pigs report could reflect tighter supplies.	4)	Cash hogs are expected to trade lower today with the packers likely less aggressive next week as they may already have most of their needs covered.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Steady to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lousy day throughout the futures complex for the livestock contracts, but the fed cash cattle market did manage to trade cattle for steady to $2.00 higher. Please note that on Friday afternoon, the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. March corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.38 points.

Thursday's export data showed that beef net sales of 7,200 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (2,200 mt), Japan (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 11,200 mt for 2024 were down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (2,800 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a disappointing day for the live cattle complex in terms of the futures market, but the fed cash cattle market traded positively. Once again, Thursday's lower ascend in the live cattle contracts was all based on technical pressure as traders are anxious about the market's position, and some traders have elected to capitalize on the market's position in terms of profit taking from a money managed funds position. What was disgruntling to see is that the spot February contract closed below its 40-day moving average, which means that the market could face some more technical pressure in the days to come -- regardless of whatever the market's fundamentals do. December live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $190.35, February live cattle closed $1.77 lower at $186.55 and April live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $188.60. Throughout the day there was a light movement of cattle sold, but largely the market hasn't seen many cattle traded yet this week. Dressed deals are being marked at $305, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and live cattle are selling for $191 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Some asking prices remain firm, around $193 to $195 in the South and around $307 plus in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $5.85 ($320.69) select down $1.44 ($284.11) with a movement of 98 loads (62.31 loads of choice, 18.75 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 9.34 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Friday's trade will largely boil down to asking: How short bought are packers? If they are close to the knife and desperately in need of cattle, prices will likely trade higher, but if they're flush with their needs for next week given that it's a holiday shortened week, prices will likely remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a dreary day for the feeder cattle complex as the market drifted lower all throughout Thursday's trade as technical pressure has been burdensome this week. January feeders closed $2.52 lower at $254.47, March feeders closed $2.80 lower at $254.57 and April feeders closed $2.95 lower at $255.45. Although the fed cash cattle market saw a slight uptick in prices in the few head of cattle that sold late Wednesday afternoon and throughout Thursday's trade, the slight help from the market's fundamentals wasn't enough to reassure traders and ease their anxiousness.

At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers and heifers over 600 pounds traded steady, but heifers under 600 pounds sold steady to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 62%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/18/2024: down $0.77, $262.23.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was trading higher ahead of Thursday's noon hour, but as the afternoon grew closer and closer to the day's end, the market followed in the cattle complex's trail and also ended the day weaker. February lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $83.62, April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $88.62 and June lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $100.80. And although both the cash market and cutout values did close slightly higher, the market's overall unsettledness seemed to be the louder voice that traders paid attention to ahead of the day's close. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.42 with a weighted average price of $79.45. Pork cutouts totaled 269.83 loads with 217.20 loads of pork cuts and 52.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.20, $96.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/17/2024: up $0.18, $84.16.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point it's likely that packers have fulfilled the majority of their needs for this week and won't pay much attention to the cash hog market on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Bids Have Surfaced for the Fed Cash Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed as traders continue to push the cattle contracts lower, but the hog complex is trading slightly higher. Bids have surfaced in the cattle complex, but no new trade has developed. March corn is up 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 203.44 points.

Thursday's export data showed that beef net sales of 7,200 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (2,200 mt), Japan (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 11,200 mt for 2024 were down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (2,800 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading lower as the market continues to flounder lower and lower. It's been nerve racking to watch the spot February contract dip below the market's 40-day moving average as traders are seeming to throw in the towel, and scramble as they're being pressured by profiting taking from money managed funds. They won't likely find secure and stable confidence in the market's fundamentals this week as the week's lower dive is being technically driven. There were a few sales marked in the North Wednesday at $305, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Bids are currently on the table in both regions where live cattle bids are sitting at mostly $191 in the South and $305 dressed in the North. Asking prices for cattle remain firm at $193 to $195 live in the South and $307 plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $6.80 ($321.64) and select up $1.84 ($283.71) with a movement of 55 loads (25.78 loads of choice, 14.14 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 7.54 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's been another strenuous and stressful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market continues to plunder lower. Thus far, the live cattle complex hasn't been of any support as it's also trading higher, and although there are bids currently being offered in the fed cash cattle market -- no new trade has developed Thursday. The market is currently remaining above its support plan at $255, which will be a key threshold to monitor through the day's end. January feeders are down $2.10 at $254.90, March feeders are down $2.35 at $255.02 and April feeders are down $2.57 at $255.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is back to trading higher as the market has seemed to find some technical footing at Wednesday's close. The day's higher trend isn't being fueled by fundamental support, however as pork cutout values are down, the day's export sales report was lousy, and there weren't enough cash hogs traded Thursday morning to even be reported publicly. February lean hogs are up $0.30 at $84.02, April lean hogs are up $0.27 at $89.17 and June lean hogs are up $0.42 at $101.17.

The projected lean hog index for 12/18/2024 is up $0.05 at $84.21, and the actual index for 12/17/2024 is up $0.18 at $84.16. Hog prices are not available on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 345 head have traded Thursday morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.99. Pork cutouts total 183.59 loads with 166.55 loads of pork cuts and 17.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $95.97.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Traders Await Cash Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The expectation was for cash to trade on Wednesday but that failed to surface. This gives the impression that the packers may not be short-bought as anticipated. Cash trade should surface today unless the packers can afford to hold out due to the upcoming holidays and the reduction of slaughter. It would then be up to feedlots if they want to or can afford to hold out. Live cattle futures have eliminated the technical breakout last week and are back below resistance. The Cattle on Feed report may limit the aggressiveness of traders unless cash cattle trade higher before the report. The average estimates for the Cattle on Feed report are for on feed as of December 1^st at 99.9% of a year ago. Placements in November at 95.9% and marketed in November at 98.2%. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $0.79 and select down $2.95. Feeder cattle showed lackluster trade following the lead of live cattle. Futures remain in a range.

Hog futures were able to hold gains through the August contract. The June and July contracts were able to hold above $100 after dipping below that level last week. The trade had anticipated cash hogs would not see much strength this week but the packers were more aggressive on Wednesday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash up $0.24. The slaughter pace remains strong and hogs are needed to maintain the chain speed and satisfy demand. Pork cutouts gained $1.58 on Wednesday. The weekly hog weights increased by 0.4 pounds to an average of 289.5 pounds. This was 0.2 pounds lower than a year ago.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Some bids were posted in Nebraska at steady prices with last week but feedlots did not budge as they looked for higher prices. The packers may need to raise bids to purchase cattle.	1)	Live cattle futures have fallen back below support after the breakout last week. Traders may be reluctant to be aggressive in the market ahead of the Cattle on Feed report.
2)	Cattle futures should remain supported ahead of the Cattle on Feed report as consumer demand remains strong and cattle are needed to meet that demand.	2)	If cash cattle trade is no better than steady money, further liquidation may surface as traders reduce their long positions.
3)	Hog futures seem to have established a sideways trading pattern which may hold through the end of the year.	3)	Hog futures have struggled recently. The head and shoulder technical formation may keep traders cautious.
4)	Weekly hog weights remained close to the previous week and a year ago. Hogs are not backing up in the country as continued strong slaughter should support prices.	4)	Pork demand is good but not exceptional. This may limit the upside price potential through the end of the year.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Face Some Technical Push Back

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle complex struggled the most throughout the day as technical pressure grew more and more burdensome throughout the day, but the feeder cattle market also closed lower. Bids of $195 live and $305 dressed were offered throughout the day, but no cattle sold. March corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $7.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,123.03 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed lower as the market faced some harsh technical realities throughout the day. It's likely some profit-taking is happening from money-managed funds, which escalated today's ascent. But the spot February contract closed just above the market's 40-day moving average and again fell below the market's resistance at $190. December live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $191.30, February live cattle closed $1.42 lower at $188.32 and April live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $190.47. Throughout the day bids of $195 live and $305 dressed were offered in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. Asking prices are firm in the South at $193 to $195 but are still not yet known for dressed cattle. Packer interest will likely improve tomorrow. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.79 ($314.84) and select down $2.95 ($285.55) with a movement of 120 loads (50.27 loads of choice, 27.27 loads of select, 28.68 loads of trim and 13.75 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. This week's trade will likely depend on how desperately packers need cattle. It's highly unlikely that feedlot managers let cattle trade for cheaper prices as they can simply roll this week's showlists over to next week as opposed to selling cattle for cheaper money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed lower as the market simply didn't receive the complimentary support it needed in order to justify advancing the contracts throughout the day. From a fundamental standpoint the market's demand is still incredible, but the market continues to come up short of the technical support it desperately needs. January feeders closed $0.47 lower at $257.00, March feeders closed $0.90 lower at $257.37 and April feeders closed $0.97 lower at $258.40. At Winters Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers weighing under 600 pounds sold $4.00 to $9.00 higher, with instances of even sharply higher. Feeder steers over 600 pounds traded $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/17/2024: up $0.46, $263.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed with the market's nearby contracts able to close slightly higher while the deferred months still rounded out the day lower. Part of the market's ability to close higher came from the support of stronger pork demand as the carcass price closed $1.58 higher -- which was mainly thanks to the ham's $3.81 increase, and the belly's $2.89 gain. February lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $83.70, April lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $88.90 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $100.75.

Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.24 with a weighted average price of $78.03 on 2,490 head. Pork cutouts totaled 206.91 loads with 159.63 loads of pork cuts and 47.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.58, $96.35. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CE lean hog index 12/16/2024: up $0.14, $83.98.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers haven't been very aggressive in this week's market and given that the week is halfway over, it's unlikely that they're going to begin to start buying aggressively now as next week will be a holiday shortened kill week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Dip Lower While Hogs Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed into Wednesday's noon hour as the cattle complex remains hesitant to advance the contracts before seeing what develops in the cash market, but the lean hog complex is trading higher. A couple bids have surfaced in Nebraska at $305 dressed, but still no cattle have traded. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $7.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 169.80 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to trail lower as anxiousness from traders seems to have the market's full attention. Some profit taking could also happen in the money managed sector as traders were leery of how long the market could sustain its position above the market's resistance at $190. December live cattle are down $0.75 at $191.50, February live cattle are down $0.87 at $188.87 and April live cattle are down $0.65 at $190.92. A bid of $305 is currently being offered in the North, but to no one's surprise, no cattle have traded just yet. Asking prices in the North are still unestablished, but Southern feedlots have their hopes set on getting $193 to $195 this week.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.50 ($314.13) and select down $3.08 ($285.42) with a movement of 66 loads (31.40 loads of choice, 18.07 loads of select, 6.14 loads of trim and 10.79 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower at Wednesday's noon hour as the market isn't thrilled to see the live cattle complex committed to a downward trend. January feeders are down $0.32 at $257.15, March feeders are down $0.57 at $257.65 and April feeders are down $0.77 at $258.60. Wednesday's lower move doesn't reflect any changes in the countryside as demand remains incredible, but rather instead a reaction from traders as they're looking for additional market support.

LEAN HOGS:

After closing lower both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, the lean hog complex seems to have found some technical footing again in the marketplace, which is also complimented by the morning's higher note in pork cutout values. February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $83.65, April lean hogs are up $0.85 at $88.90 and June lean hogs are up $0.75 at $100.70. Although, the ham was pressured earlier this week, it's the leading reason this morning for the carcass's higher prices as it's up $1.47 and the picnic is up $1.36.

Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 2,000 head traded Wednesday morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $79.03. Pork cutouts total 123.96 loads with 96.40 loads of pork cuts and 27.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.90, $95.67.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Search For Price Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It seemed as if traders began focusing on the upcoming Cattle on Feed report Tuesday due to the uncertainty of price direction. It was too early to position themselves ahead of the report, but it seemed as if they did not want to trade aggressively in either direction. The cash cattle trade has not yet been established, leaving traders guessing as to the needs of packers. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.74 and select down $1.07. The average estimates for the Cattle on Feed report are for on feed as of Dec. 1 at 99.9% of a year ago. Placements in November at 95.9% and marketed in November at 98.2%. Feeder cattle pushed higher Tuesday regaining Monday's losses and holding in a sideways pattern.

The damage may have been done in hog futures with a renewal of the uptrend not likely through the end of the year. Packers were not aggressive on Tuesday with limited trading activity and lower cash. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.60. Packers may have some hogs already purchased for the holiday week and may wait until the end of the week to finish up purchases. Pork cutouts declined by $0.50, which adds to the negativity. Hog futures may be in trouble technically with a head-and-shoulders top potentially developing. Futures need to find support soon or further selling could develop.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The expectation is that packers will need cattle and they may be willing to pay at least steady money to get them.	1)	Traders may not be overly anxious about pushing cattle futures in either direction ahead of cash trade and the Cattle on Feed report.
2)	Feedlots are in the position to hold for higher cash and if they do not receive it, they will hold the cattle over until they do.	2)	Last week, some cattle were purchased with time, leaving the potential for packers to be less aggressive this week. Reduced cattle numbers will be required over the holiday period.
3)	The managed money crowd does not seem anxious about liquidating their extremely long hog futures positions. The recent decline may be viewed as a buying opportunity.	3)	Hog futures will need to see strong buying interest soon or technical traders may liquidate due to a head-and-shoulders pattern developing and the end of the year.
4)	Hog futures may establish some stability and develop a sideways trading pattern moving through the rest of the year.	4)	The packers may be less aggressive in cash purchases as they may have much of their needs for next week already booked as slaughter will be reduced.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Closed Lower While Feeder Cattle Powered Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex rounded out the day mixed as the feeder cattle complex was the only market to close fully higher, while both the live cattle and lean hog markets closed mostly lower. No trade surfaced in the cash cattle market. March corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 267.58 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another mixed day for the live cattle complex as the market saw its nearby contracts close slightly lower but most of the market's deferred contracts closed slightly higher. As traders continue to hold the live cattle contracts somewhat steady -- all eyes, ears and emotions seem to be waiting on this week's cash cattle market to see if prices are again going to trade higher. If they do, traders may be more inclined to hold the market in its new sideways trading range and fundamental support is evident, but if cash prices dip lower, the big gains the futures market made last week could be quickly erased. December live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $192.25, February live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $189.75 and April live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $191.57. No cash cattle trade was noted throughout the day but asking prices are noted in the South at $193 to $195 but are still not established in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.74 ($315.63) and select down $1.07 ($288.50) with a movement of 112 loads (62.88 loads of choice, 21.62 loads of select, 6.46 loads of trim and 20.92 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though last week's advancement in the cash cattle market was lofty -- as trade was noted anywhere from steady to $8.00 higher -- I believe that in the worst-case scenario, prices trade steady as feedlot managers are current enough with their showlists to be able to roll cattle over into next week as opposed to having to sell them this week for cheaper money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even without the support of the live cattle complex as it rounded out the day lower in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle complex had a change of heart compared to Monday's market and closed anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher. January feeders closed $1.92 higher at $257.47, March feeders closed $1.90 higher at $258.27 and April feeders closed $1.95 higher at $259.37. The market continues to dance just below its technical resistance at $260 -- which has been a threshold that the market has struggled to confidently conquer since early last spring. I don't believe that the feeder cattle complex will have the willpower to muster up enough strength to successfully take on the market's resistance there until the stars perfectly align – meaning that traders are eagerly pushing both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts, and both the fed cash cattle and feeder cattle markets are trading higher as well. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher, but the market for cattle weighing over 800 pounds wasn't fully established. Feeder heifers were fully steady with last week's market. Steer calves traded $8.00 to $13.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 40%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/16/2024: up $0.81, $262.54.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex endured yet another lower trading day as the market continues to lack the fundamental support it desperately longs for. February lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $83.20, April lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $88.05 and June lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $99.95. Unfortunately, the spot February contract did close below the market's support plane, which was established just last week, which indicates that more technical pressure could lay ahead of the market in the upcoming trading days if fundamental support doesn't surface. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.60 with a weighed average price of $77.79 on 1,075 head. Pork cutouts totaled 301.16 loads with 244.69 loads of pork cuts and 56.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.50, $94.77. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- steady with a week and a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/13/2024: down $0.06, $83.84.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers don't seem as though they're in need of many hogs this week which could keep cash prices steady.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Summarize Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a quiet, noneventful day for the livestock complex as traders continue to determine which direction best suits the futures complex without much having developed yet fundamentally. Asking prices are noted in the Southern plains at $193 to $195. March corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 244.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly lower into Tuesday's noon hour as the market is skeptical of trading higher unless something significantly worthwhile develops this week fundamentally. Some of the market's deferred contracts are trading slightly higher, but all in all, slightly lower tones are dominating the market right now. December live cattle are down $0.02 at $192.00, February live cattle are down $0.35 at $189.62 and April live cattle are down $0.27 at $191.47. Still no developments have surfaced in the cash cattle market, and it won't likely be until Thursday or Friday that we see any trade. Asking prices are noted however in the Southern plains at $193 to $195.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.43 ($317.80) and select down $0.53 ($289.04) with a movement of 61 loads (32.39 loads of choice, 8.50 loads of select, 6.12 loads of trim and 13.77 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex continues to trade lower, the feeder cattle market has shifted its direction as it is trading higher again. The market's biggest cautionary deterrent has the futures complex as traders attempt to manage the market's strong fundamental outlook amid some turmoil from the futures complex as traders grapple with the risk and reality that prices are at near record levels and some profit taking could happen at any point in time. January feeders are up $1.00 at $256.52, March feeders are up $0.97 at $257.40 and April feeders are up $0.72 at $258.15.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again chopping sideways as the market is disgruntled with pork demand and the cash hog market isn't lending any support either as a measly 185 head have only traded this morning. February lean hogs are down $0.65 at $82.90, April lean hogs are down $0.27 at $87.97 and June lean hogs are down $0.15 at $99.87. The spot February contract is currently trading below the market's support plane which was established earlier last week, but the nearby April 2025 contract is respecting that threshold.

Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.90 with a weighted average price of $78.84, ranging from $72.00 to $80.00 on 185 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.04. Pork cutouts total 175.88 loads with 146.21 loads of pork cuts and 29.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.64, $94.63.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Find Stability

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures did follow through to the upside Monday, initially making new highs, but prices hit resistance and liquidation took over. Traders decided to take some of the premium out of the market until cash trade is established this week. The Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday but it was too early for that to have been a factor in trading. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday morning's report, but closed higher for the day with choice up $0.98 and select up $5.71. This may provide some stability Tuesday. There had been the idea that packers were short-bought last week, but that does not seem to have been the case as 32% of the cattle traded last week were for deferred delivery. This puts a different perspective on the potential that the packers may need to purchase early and aggressively this week. However, cash should remain supportive. Feeder cattle futures may have established a double-top technically, which could keep the market under pressure near term.

Hog futures followed a similar pattern as cattle Monday with a stronger open before buying interest dried up and prices fell. The technical action could have formed a head-and-shoulders top, which could trigger further long liquidation. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.46. The packers intend to do business earlier to procure sufficient supplies for this week and position themselves for the holiday week. Cash is expected to be higher again. Pork cutouts gained $0.92. This may stabilize futures Tuesday but may not turn the trend higher.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle are expected to trade no worse than steady this week, which should support the market.	1)	Packers were able to purchase a significant amount of cattle for deferred delivery, which may leave them less aggressive this week.
2)	Feedlots are in the driver's seat and will hold cattle over if they do not get the prices they want. Cattle supplies are not burdensome and feed is reasonable and plentiful.	2)	Traders may be less aggressive in buying this week ahead of cash cattle trading and the Cattle on Feed report.
3)	There is a good demand for pork keeping the slaughter pace aggressive. Packers need to purchase hogs to satisfy demand.	3)	Hog futures may be forming a head-and-shoulders top, which could result in further liquidation ahead of the end of the year. This is a strong technical pattern.
4)	Hog supplies are not as large as anticipated and are not backing up in the market. This should support prices resulting in limited downside risk.	4)	Pork cutout prices need to see consistent strength to provide traders with the confidence that strong demand will continue.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders let the Complex Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex struggled technically throughout the day as traders paid little attention to the market as they're seeming uncomfortable with the idea of advancing the contracts at this point. Heading into this week, new showlists appear to be lower in all three major feeding states. March corn is up 3 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 110.58 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a floundering day for the live cattle complex as the market struggled technically to gain any momentum. Traders pushed the market aggressively last week, and now seem to be struggling from some exhaustion. This could mean that the complex will drift lower in the days ahead unless something wild develops in the cash market. December live cattle closed $1.62 lower at $192.02, February live cattle closed $2.05 lower at $189.97 and April live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $191.75. Heading into this week, new showlists appear to be lower in all three major feeding states. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded from mostly $191 to $192, which is steady to $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $295 to $311, but the majority of the business was done at $302 to $305 which is $5.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. The week's total movement in the negotiated cash cattle market totaled 77,128 head. Of that 68% (52,132 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 32% (24,996 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.98 ($317.37) and select up $5.71 ($289.57) with a movement of 104 loads (55.35 loads of choice, 18.60 loads of select, 9.24 loads of trim and 21.16 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers sit in a unique position where they can simply elect to roll over their showlists as opposed to having to sell them week in and week out. Prices will likely trade steady to somewhat higher as feedlot managers won't likely accept anything below steady prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market traded lower all throughout Monday's complex as traders remain skeptical of being overly supportive of the markets right now. Last week the feeder cattle complex saw tremendous technical support early in the week, but after hitting resistance levels, the market's momentum fizzled out. January feeders closed $2.10 lower at $255.55, March feeders closed $1.30 lower at $256.37 and April feeders closed $1.10 lower at $257.42. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week and at their midpoint session, feeder steers were selling anywhere from $2.00 lower to $8.00 higher, and feeder heifers were trading steady to $5.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 12/13/2024: down $0.86, $261.73.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the lean hog complex appeared to find some technical footing last week, the market again fell subject to more technical down pressure through Monday's trade. February lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $83.55, April lean hogs closed $1.50 lower at $88.25 and June lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $100.02. Even though the carcass price was able to close slightly higher, traders felt as though its support wasn't significant enough to turn the tide and push the futures contracts higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.46 with a weighted average price of $79.39 on 2,127 head. Pork cutouts totaled 367.46 loads with 320.89 loads of pork cuts and 46.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.92, $95.53. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a year ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/12/2024: down $0.02, $83.90.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Packers will likely be more aggressive in Tuesday's cash hog market as they'll look to secure more inventory.