Thursday, December 19, 2024

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Steady to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lousy day throughout the futures complex for the livestock contracts, but the fed cash cattle market did manage to trade cattle for steady to $2.00 higher. Please note that on Friday afternoon, the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. March corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.38 points.

Thursday's export data showed that beef net sales of 7,200 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (2,200 mt), Japan (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 11,200 mt for 2024 were down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (2,800 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a disappointing day for the live cattle complex in terms of the futures market, but the fed cash cattle market traded positively. Once again, Thursday's lower ascend in the live cattle contracts was all based on technical pressure as traders are anxious about the market's position, and some traders have elected to capitalize on the market's position in terms of profit taking from a money managed funds position. What was disgruntling to see is that the spot February contract closed below its 40-day moving average, which means that the market could face some more technical pressure in the days to come -- regardless of whatever the market's fundamentals do. December live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $190.35, February live cattle closed $1.77 lower at $186.55 and April live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $188.60. Throughout the day there was a light movement of cattle sold, but largely the market hasn't seen many cattle traded yet this week. Dressed deals are being marked at $305, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and live cattle are selling for $191 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Some asking prices remain firm, around $193 to $195 in the South and around $307 plus in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $5.85 ($320.69) select down $1.44 ($284.11) with a movement of 98 loads (62.31 loads of choice, 18.75 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 9.34 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Friday's trade will largely boil down to asking: How short bought are packers? If they are close to the knife and desperately in need of cattle, prices will likely trade higher, but if they're flush with their needs for next week given that it's a holiday shortened week, prices will likely remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a dreary day for the feeder cattle complex as the market drifted lower all throughout Thursday's trade as technical pressure has been burdensome this week. January feeders closed $2.52 lower at $254.47, March feeders closed $2.80 lower at $254.57 and April feeders closed $2.95 lower at $255.45. Although the fed cash cattle market saw a slight uptick in prices in the few head of cattle that sold late Wednesday afternoon and throughout Thursday's trade, the slight help from the market's fundamentals wasn't enough to reassure traders and ease their anxiousness.

At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers and heifers over 600 pounds traded steady, but heifers under 600 pounds sold steady to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 62%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/18/2024: down $0.77, $262.23.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was trading higher ahead of Thursday's noon hour, but as the afternoon grew closer and closer to the day's end, the market followed in the cattle complex's trail and also ended the day weaker. February lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $83.62, April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $88.62 and June lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $100.80. And although both the cash market and cutout values did close slightly higher, the market's overall unsettledness seemed to be the louder voice that traders paid attention to ahead of the day's close. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.42 with a weighted average price of $79.45. Pork cutouts totaled 269.83 loads with 217.20 loads of pork cuts and 52.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.20, $96.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/17/2024: up $0.18, $84.16.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point it's likely that packers have fulfilled the majority of their needs for this week and won't pay much attention to the cash hog market on Friday.




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