Feedlot country should be typically slow Monday
as cattle buyers limit their efforts to the gathering of new showlists.
We expect the supply of ready steers and heifers to be steady to
somewhat larger than last week. Asking prices will no doubt be sharply
higher eventually, but perhaps not until midweek or later. Live and
feeder futures are primed to open moderately higher, supported by
follow-through buying and early-week cash optimism.
Hog buyers should return to work Monday looking
for better leverage in the country in order to improve upon seasonal
margins. Look for opening bids to be around steady to $1 lower. Lean
futures will probably open on a mixed basis thanks spillover selling on
one hand and the premium status of the cash index on the other.
|
BULL SIDE |
|
BEAR SIDE |
| 1) |
With live and feeder futures
once again exploding with triple-digit highs on Friday (and yet another
round of new contract highs), the board still seems determined to lead
the cash market higher. |
1) |
As the cost of live inventory
has soared over the last two weeks, beef packer margins have taken a
serious hit. Specifically, gross packer margins are starting the week at
their lowest level seen since early May. |
| 2) |
The net-long position in live
cattle futures held by noncommercials picked up again in the week of
Oct. 31, increasing the total to 7,900 loads to 127,500. |
2) |
The "official" index roll
begins on Tuesday, when index funds will be rolling December live cattle
longs into mostly February and April. Accordingly, December could have
trouble attracting new long for a while, especially given its premium
over feedlot cash. |
| 3) |
For the week ending Oct 31,
noncommercial traders increased their net-long position in lean hog
futures by 5,400 contracts to 52,000. |
3) |
Given the fact that spot
December lean hogs is currently holding a 418-point discount to the cash
index, many traders clearly remain nervous about prospects of large hog
supplies later this fall and winter, and whether pork demand will be
sufficient to clear the additional product. |
| 4) |
Pork processing margins
improved last week with the reduction in chain speed perhaps forcing
retailer to support the product market more aggressively. The carcass
value closed moderately higher on Friday, girded by better demand for
hams, bellies and butts. |
4) |
Halting wage growth remains a
problem. Average earnings in October fell by 1 cent an hour, up 2.4%
over 2016. Many economists expected slower wage growth in October, but
few expected an outright drop. |
CATTLE: (USMEF) -- Even though U.S. beef doesn't
have a large presence in Europe, the fact that it's on restaurant menus
and in grocery stores is important. "Sales of U.S. beef in the EU, in
both the restaurant and retail sectors, is seen across the world as an
endorsement of the quality, consistency and safety of our product," says
Yuri Barutkin, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) representative in
Europe. "That image pays dividends for U.S. beef elsewhere around the
globe."
Helping to enhance that image, U.S. beef was
featured prominently at Anuga, a biennial event that is considered the
world's largest food show, attracting 165,000 visitors to Cologne,
Germany, in early October. Nearly 7,500 exhibitors participated,
including the USMEF and 12 of its member companies. USMEF's
participation in Anuga was supported by the USDA Market Access Program.
According to Barutkin, discussions at Anuga
resulted in many promotional plans and projects for the coming year --
with both existing customers and new contacts. Barutkin has spearheaded a
number of U.S. beef promotions in Europe this year, including seminars
designed to enhance interest in alternative cuts from the round and the
shoulder clod.
"Higher-end middle meats are quite popular in
this market, but with the EU's demanding import requirements, it is
important to develop outlets for as much of the carcass as possible," he
said. "That's why USMEF's educational seminars, which make foodservice
and retail professionals aware of more cuts that will appeal to European
customers, are so essential."
Discussions with European importers and
distributors at Anuga revealed that demand for U.S. beef remains high,
but availability is limited by the growth in imports from other
supplying countries under the European Union's duty-free high-quality
beef quota.
In 1999, the World Trade Organization (WTO)
ruled that the EU's ban on beef produced with synthetic growth hormones
had no scientific basis and authorized the U.S. to impose retaliatory
duties on certain products imported from the EU unless the ban was
lifted. Ten years later, the U.S. and the EU agreed to replace U.S.
retaliation with a 45,000 mt duty-free quota for beef that met a very
strict product definition. The EU agreed to limit imports to countries
that it determined had controls in place to ensure that beef shipped
under the quota met this definition.
"Since it was clear that the EU was not going to
lift its hormone ban, replacing the retaliatory duties -- which did not
benefit the U.S. beef industry -- with a duty-free quota was viewed as a
way of creating an important new opportunity for U.S. beef in one of
the world's highest-value markets," explains Thad Lively, USMEF senior
vice president for trade access. The EU sought to include in the 2009
agreement a provision for resolving the hormone dispute in the WTO. The
beef industry took the position that as long as the hormone ban remains
on the EU's books, it will not be possible to resolve the dispute.
This has continued to be the U.S. industry's
position, but recently Canada, as part of its bilateral trade agreement
with the EU, took the opposite view and notified the WTO that it was
giving up its rights to compensation in the hormone case, even though
the EU has taken no action to come into compliance with the WTO's 1999
ruling.
Prior to the 2009 agreement, U.S. beef entering
the EU was subject to a 20% duty, making it uncompetitive except in a
tiny niche at the very top of the market. The duty-free quota opened up a
wider range of opportunities by somewhat offsetting the higher cost of
producing beef from hormone-free cattle.
In the early going, the quota was an effective
tool for U.S. exporters looking to gain a foothold in Europe and develop
business over time. But then the EU expanded the list of countries that
are eligible to supply beef under the quota to include not only the
U.S. and Canada, the two countries that brought the original complaint
against the hormone ban in the WTO, but also Australia, New Zealand,
Uruguay and Argentina.
In the past few years, the quota has been
completely filled, but beef from the other supplying countries has
accounted for the majority of the business, leaving the U.S. with a
small and shrinking share of the market. This situation has been
compounded by the fact that the EU only makes the quota available on a
quarterly basis, and the quota amount is used up well before the end of
each 12-week period, creating gaps of as many as seven weeks when no
beef is imported under the quota.
This uneven flow of product has created
bottlenecks in the production and marketing chain and made it nearly
impossible for companies to build long-term relationships with buyers
who demand a consistent supply.
"This situation is becoming untenable for U.S.
companies doing business in the EU," said Lively. "We have emphasized
the urgency of the situation to our government and told them that the
best way to make the 2009 agreement workable is for the EU to allocate a
significant share of the quota to the U.S. for our exclusive use."
The quota was certainly a hot topic at Anuga, noted USMEF President Dan Halstrom.
"A solution is absolutely needed that will not
only put an end to these current disruptions, but also allow for further
expansion of U.S. beef exports to the EU," he said.
Halstrom added that uncertainty surrounding the
quota can also have a negative impact on supply, causing U.S. cattle
producers to question whether hormone-free production is a viable
long-term option. But the reopening of China, which was closed to U.S.
beef for more than 13 years, may provide momentum for producers
interested in serving both the Chinese and European markets.
"The export requirements are not identical, but
both markets require hormone-free and beta agonist-free cattle
production," Halstrom said. "So if we can build demand for U.S. beef in
Europe and in China, and smooth the flow of product to these markets,
U.S. producers will see opportunities worth pursuing."
HOGS: (foodmarket.com) -- The tasty fan favorite
-- the McRib -- is back! The iconic McRib returns for a limited time at
participating U.S. restaurants.
The McRib's most loyal fans will be able to
quickly locate the sandwich with the official "McRib Finder app" for iOS
and Android phones. Consumers can simply download the app and from
there, find locations, swap McRib-themed stickers and plan McRib
sandwich dates with their friends.
The McRib is made with 100 percent seasoned
boneless pork, McDonald's signature McRib sauce -- a sweet, tangy,
barbeque style sauce -- and served with dill pickles and mild, fresh
slivered onions on a toasted hoagie-style bun. Like all of McDonald's
national sandwiches, the bun for the McRib is now free of high-fructose
corn syrup. The sandwich dates back 35 years ago and was inspired by
McDonald's first executive chef -- it first appeared on the menu in
Kansas City, Kansas.
"The McRib is truly an iconic sandwich and has
been a fan favorite since its debut on the McDonald's menu 35 years
ago," said McDonald's Chef Chad Schafer. "Our customers are passionate
and tell us they enjoy the sweetness of the barbeque sauce, which pairs
perfectly with the hints of pickles and onions. It's more than a
sandwich, it's a legend and has become an experience for so many to
enjoy at McDonald's."
Fans were last able to order the beloved
sandwich in December 2016. Customers can visit a participating U.S.
restaurant location to enjoy McRib now, and new this year, you can have
it delivered with McDelivery* on UberEATS.
