Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Buying Floods Into Livestock Trade

General Comments

Triple-digit gains are seen through cattle and hog futures Monday morning. Lean hog futures are leading the complex higher with April futures holding a $2.55 per cwt rally midday. Feeder cattle gains are leading all cattle markets higher. Corn markets are higher in light trade. March corn futures are 3/4 cent higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 36 points higher with Nasdaq up 66 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Livestock futures have surged higher with early support quickly gaining momentum following the move higher in feeder cattle. There is additional support likely to move back into the complex. June and August futures are leading the complex higher with prices holding triple-digit gains. The focus through the morning is helping traders trying to offset losses seen last week. Cash cattle interest is undeveloped at this point with showlist distribution and inventory taking place through the morning. With prices generally $1 per cwt higher than the previous week in live and dressed trade, this should instill additional confidence through the week as asking prices are expected to elevated. But bids and asking prices are not likely to be seen until midweek or later. Boxed beef cut-outs at midday are higher, up $0.75 (select) to up $2.97 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 46 total loads reported (19 loads of choice cuts, 18 loads of select cuts, 5 loads of trimmings, 4 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Strong gains flooded the feeder cattle futures complex late Monday morning with April contracts holding $2.25 per cwt higher through the morning. Triple-digit gains in all contracts are holding with the focus on regaining market losses last week. There is expected to be increased buyer activity moving into the complex as prices try to build increased additional support through the month of February.

LEAN HOGS:

Buyer support has been unrestricted Monday morning with triple-digit gains quickly moving back into the complex. This has pushed April futures $2.55 higher as aggressive market support moved back into the complex. Despite early losses through the first few minutes of trade, aggressive triple-digit gains quickly flooded through the complex. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is up $0.41 at $50.79 per cwt, with the range from $47.25 to $51.28 on 4,549 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values are higher on the morning report with prices gaining $1.22 per cwt at $68.21 per cwt with 122 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/31 is $57.18, down $0.22, with a projected two-day index is $57.41, down $0.23.

#completecalfcare

Monday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Early Mixed Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle activity is returning to early-week sluggishness with showlist distribution and inventory-taking the main focus through the morning. Packers are moving into the first full week of February short bought once again, but this has become a constant pattern the last few weeks. The firmness in cash markets last week will create additional bullish expectations for feedlot managers, although trade is likely to once again be delayed until the last half of the week. Futures trade is expected to remain mixed to mostly higher during initial trade as the focus on last week's market correction may help to spark some renewed market support as traders try to establish a trading range within these current price levels.

Cash hog prices are steady to $1 per cwt lower once again with most bids steady to weak early in the week. Packers are getting back on track with regularly scheduled processing schedules following the weather challenges last week. This should allow for more stability as the week continues. Limited activity is expected in lean hog futures trade Monday, although prices are expected to firm during initial trade as traders focus on establishing market support through early February. Slaughter runs are expected at 477,000 head Monday.

BULL SIDE	BEAR SIDE
1) Firm cash market gains last week is sparking additional fundamental support through the entire complex. The ability to push prices $1 per cwt higher in most areas Friday as packers struggle with gaining enough cattle moving into plants to keep plants full is fueling further bullish expectations.	1) The lower price shift last week has eroded support in fall contracts, moving prices below both 40- and 100-day moving averages. This weakness in long-term market direction could quickly further impact the ability to bring traders back to the complex in all contracts.
2)Nearby live cattle futures continue to hold well above the 40-day moving average even following the strong price pullback last week. This is expected to continue to fuel technical support through early February.	2)Feeder cattle futures have continued to weaken going into February with recent support in corn and soybean markets adding additional pressure to nearby and deferred contracts.
3)Aggressive packer schedules are expected to redevelop through the week, allowing for potential firmness in cash values the next several days.	3) Pork cutout values continue to steadily erode, creating concerns that additional pressure will develop through February. This is causing additional underlying weakness across the entire complex.
4) Packer margins continue to remain relatively strong despite the recent pullback in pork values. This will continue to allow packers to aggressively fill plants during the month of February.	4) Pressure in lean hog futures has continued to break through short- and intermediate-term support levels through the last couple of weeks. The concern of supply growth and continued uncertain demand is adding to market pressure.

#completecalfcare

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Price Shifts Develop

General Comments

Livestock futures trade has posted limited market direction Friday morning as traders try to adjust positions following the aggressive losses seen Thursday. Mixed trade is seen through the morning, although all contracts are showing limited market activity with most prices hovering in a narrow range. Corn markets are higher in light trade. March corn futures are 3 cents higher. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 102 points higher with Nasdaq down 9 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Narrow gains are holding at midday Friday despite limited direction in cash trade and mixed beef values. When faced with the aggressive market correction Thursday that pulled prices off recent highs, light but steady end-of-week support is redeveloping. The tone of the live cattle complex remains firm, allowing for increased overall support through the entire complex during early February, even though it is expected to be challenging to sustain price levels at or near contract highs through the next couple of months. Cash cattle trade is still sluggish midday Friday. A few cattle have been sold in Iowa at $198 per cwt through the morning, but this is not yet enough to establish a market trend. Bids are becoming more active at $121 live and $196 to $199 dressed. The higher end of the dressed bids are from regional packers. Asking prices are holding at $125 and higher live and $200 to $203 dressed. It could easily be late afternoon or early evening until the majority of trade takes place. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.30 higher (select) and down $1.32 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 35 total loads reported (23 loads of choice cuts, 3 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 8 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Narrow losses have held through the entire morning in feeder cattle trade. The most significant pressure is seen in August futures as traders continue to focus on the potential of additional cattle placements through the summer months and questions about sustained support through the entire beef complex. Nearby futures are showing limited losses of 10 to 35 cents per cwt as traders move their attention away from live cattle and beef markets at the end of the week, and on grain trade and the early morning buyer support in the corn complex.

LEAN HOGS:

Limited activity is seen in lean hog futures with early support in February and April contracts eroding through late morning. This is causing some additional market uncertainty and questions if a strong market selloff may develop during afternoon trade, similar to Thursday's activity. Firm gains are holding in deferred futures, based on very limited interest and the desire for most traders to cover short positions at the end of the week. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is up $0.10 at $50.80 per cwt, with the range from $50.25 to $51.08 on 3,213 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values are lower on the morning report with prices falling $1.35 per cwt at $66.70 per cwt with 173 loads traded. Lean hog index for 1/30 is $57.40, down $0.27, with a projected two-day index is $57.18, down $0.22.

#completecalfcare

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Market Volatility Possible

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade has once again made it to Friday with no sense of direction or market activity. Packers are expected to be offering bids through the day, but don't expect early bids to be anything to gain the attention of feeders. The sharp pullback in futures trade Thursday may be what packers need to shake loose cattle from higher asking prices. It is likely that trade will not develop until well into the day. Futures are expected to start lower, as traders enter the market Friday. With a new month on the books, the focus on short-covering is expected to get the attention of most traders. Some additional buyer support is likely to move into the market ahead of the weekend, leaving prices generally unsettled through most of the session.

Cash hog prices are steady to $1 per cwt lower with most bids steady to Friday. The strong pressure in futures trade is expected to add even more uncertainty to the overall cash complex at the end of the week. Even with traders moving into a new month, the expectation is that active trade may not develop until early next week. Futures trade turned sharply lower Thursday, which is expected to continue the market weakness through the complex Friday. With April futures holding on the $60 per cwt price level for the time being, there seems to be little to no significant support likely in the near future. Traders may try to cover short positions through the end of the week with the attention on all nearby contracts and growing concerns of pork demand through the rest of the year. Slaughter runs at the plant are expected at 465,000 head Thursday. With Saturday runs at 310,000 head. 

#completecalfcare

BULL SIDE	BEAR SIDE
1) Packers continue to go into the end of the week short-bought as they move into the month of February. This is expected to create buyer support Friday and allow for potentially stable cash market prices even following aggressive futures pressure.	1) Sharp triple-digit losses flooded cattle markets, moving April futures $3.17 per cwt under session highs. The aggressive pressure at the end of January quickly eroded market support, creating questions of further strength.
2)Nearby April live cattle futures continues to trade above initial support levels from last week. The aggressive market shift the last week has created volatility in the market, even though prices remain near contract highs.	2)The one-day, triple-digit tumble in live cattle futures shifted the monthly continuous chart from a strong market gains. This close caused spot-month contracts to remain stable with December, marking the first decline in six months.
3)Limited pressure in deferred lean hog trade has allowed for traders to take a more stable approach to pork supply and demand through the second half of the year. This could establish long-term market support moving back into the complex.	3) April futures led lean hog futures sharply lower, adding to the already bearish market tone in January.
4) Firm gains quickly redeveloped in pork cutout values Thursday, eroding recent market support and showing encouraging market support in primal cuts, which is essential to sustain growing pork demand through the next couple of months.	4) Cash hog values continue to struggle to gain market significance with packers still struggling with lower plant production due to the recent weather conditions and cold temperatures keeping much of the nation hostage.