Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Hog Futures End Limit Down

GENERAL COMMENTS: Lean hog futures closed the limit $3 per cwt lower Thursday, which will trigger expanded trading limits Friday. The volatile moves in the hog market over the last two weeks could spark wide price shifts. Cash cattle markets were generally undeveloped Thursday following Wednesday's light-to-moderate trade in all areas. The overall numbers sold appear to be light, with some additional movement likely Friday. Bids Thursday were in a similar range as Wednesday, unable to gain additional traction as feeders seem comfortable holding out on unsold cattle until bids improve or will hold cattle over until early April. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.37 higher ($66-$78, weighted average $75.36) on 7,687 head sold. Corn futures were higher in light activity with May up 1/4 cent per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 98 points higher with the Nasdaq up 25 points.

LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures saw only narrow moves Thursday as stability developed in late-day trade. Futures closed mixed, $0.20 lower to $0.27 higher. Limited movement was seen the entire session. Nearby contracts inched higher on firmness in feeder cattle, while the lack of trade activity allowed narrow erosion in summer and winter contracts. Traders' focus has moved back to the limit losses in the lean hog complex. At this point, it is uncertain if live cattle will be able to attract traders fleeing the hog markets since the live cattle trade has also seen losses this week. Markets could remain sluggish through the end of the month as traders wait until early April before moving back into the complex. Beef cut-outs: lower, down $1.01 (select, $219.52) to down $1.55 (choice, $227.44) with moderate demand and light offerings of 87 loads (62 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, 5 load of trimmings, 6 loads of coarse grinds).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Limited bids are expected to develop Friday. The overall movement of cattle Wednesday is lighter than what one would expect for the week, creating the potential for additional trade Friday. Prices are likely to be steady with Wednesday's levels, remaining generally $2 to $3 per cwt lower than week-ago prices.

FEEDER CATTLE: Light buying interest trickled into feeder cattle trade following initial pressure. Futures closed $0.15 lower to $0.52 higher. The volatility in hog trade seemed to create a calming effect on the cattle market, as traders seemed to move into the feeder cattle complex. The lightly traded March futures contract slipped lower, while other contracts saw light-to-moderate gains. The limited trade activity added more uncertainty to the complex. CME cash feeder index for 3/27 is $142.35, up $0.20.

LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures saw triple-digit losses of $2.15 to $3 on fears of export weakness. The focus Thursday was on the weekly export sales report. Following two weeks of sales reported to China, traders and most market watchers seemed to be anticipating this was the new normal. But, instead, not only were no sales reported, but a cancelation to China seemed to leave the market on edge. On top of that, the emotional buying that caused contracts to surge to new highs seems to have run out of steam over the last couple of days. USDA's March 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released Thursday afternoon showed a 2% increase in total inventory from a year ago. Numbers kept for breeding and marketing were also each up 2% from a year ago. Pork cutout values weakened following unsettled moves in futures trade and concerns of widespread pressure. Pork cutout values fell $0.42 per cwt, moving to $81.21 per cwt on 271 loads. CME cash lean index for 3/26 is $69.50, up $2.37. DTN Projected lean index for 3/27: $71.72, up $2.22.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. End-of-the-week price support is slipping following strong futures price pressure and uncertainty about demand. Most bids are expected steady to 50 cents higher. Friday slaughter is expected at 469,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 146,000 head.

#completeherdhealth

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Expanded Hog Losses Develop

General Comments

Strong losses have developed in lean hog futures Thursday morning. Increased underlying pressure may continue to be seen through the end of the week as the emotional buyer support seen last week has quickly eroded. Cattle markets are mixed in a very narrow trading range. Corn futures are steady to slightly lower in light trade. May corn futures are steady. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 2 points lower with Nasdaq down 3 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Mixed trade continues to develop in limited interest as traders seem to be willing to hold the current price pattern through the near future. Even though April futures have pushed below March support levels, the tone of the market remains firm, which may help to rekindle buying activity during early April. Traders continue to focus on expanded demand through the spring and summer, allowing for increased overall support through the entire complex. Cash cattle activity remains sluggish with limited bids developing in Nebraska at $125 live and $204 per cwt dressed. Following the light to moderate trade Wednesday it is uncertain just how much additional trade will develop through the end of the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.19 lower (select) and down $1.10 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 50 total loads reported (38 loads of choice cuts, 9 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 3 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Narrow losses are seen in feeder cattle trade with limited additional direction developing Thursday morning. April contracts are holding a 20 cent loss, moving to $145.70 per cwt. Nearby contracts have posted strong losses over the last four trading sessions, but still remain well above support levels, and could remain in the wide sideways pattern for an extended period of time. Growing weakness in lean hog trade is limiting buyer activity through the morning, but most traders are unwilling to aggressively shift prices due to the lack of overall direction in the complex.

LEAN HOGS:

Losses have continued to expand as summer losses above $2 per cwt midmorning. This sparked additional concerns that increased market pressure continues to add uncertainty to the market. April futures are $1.90 per cwt lower, with the rest of 2019 contracts $2 to $2.50 per cwt lower. The potential to expand further losses through the rest of the week is growing as traders remain concerned about the ability to sell pork to China. Continued varied reports about what the impact of total hog numbers impacted is hard to get an accurate read on the overall situation. This could leave markets unsettled over a long period of time. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.01 at $74.98 per cwt with the range from $66.00 to $78.00, on 4,339 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.72 at $75.99 per cwt with the range from $66.00 to $78.00, on 1,523 head reported sold. Pork values continue to move higher, but wide price swings in pork primal cuts has caused some uncertainty through the market. Pork cutouts gained $0.44 per cwt at $82.07 per cwt with 152 loads traded. Lean hog index for 3/26 is $69.50, up $2.37, with a projected two-day index is $71.72, up $2.22.

#completecalfcare

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Focus on Recent Losses

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Active pressure midweek is opening the door for additional technical pressure for the last two trading sessions of March. Even though most contracts still remain above the short-term support levelsfrom early March, the break below $126.65 in April contracts sparked a market reversal and increased liquidation. Trade is expected to remain sluggish early Thursday morning, although the overall tone of the complex continues to weaken following the early development of cash cattle trade at lower money. Traders are watching the overall outside market direction, which had a significant impact on midweek price levels, for follow-through pressure in the coming days and weeks. Cash cattle trade started to develop at midday on Wednesday, surprising most in the market how quickly things developed as traders tried to cover basis levels. Prices were $126 live and $206 dressed, although additional trade is possible through the end of the week. But at this point, prices are likely to already be set.

Follow-through buyer support is expected in nearby spot traded lean hog futures Thursday following continued support in cash and wholesale pork values. Traders continue to focus on the direction of trade and news of any agreement with China. This may limit overall direction as the recent market rally still has room to move lower before renewed buying steps back into the market. Cash hog values are expected to be steady to $2 per cwt higher with most bids $1 per cwt higher Thursday morning. Expected slaughter Wednesday is at 477,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 146,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Early-week cash cattle trade indicates just how short-bought packers are going into the end of the month. Even though price levels are not able to follow, the potential for packers to aggressively search for cattle may continue through early April.	1)	April live cattle trade has broken through early March support levels of $126.65 per cwt, sparking potential weakness the rest of the week.
2)	Active movements in wholesale beef levels continue to spark increased overall long-term support and expectations of further gains through the next two months.	2)	Strong outside market pressure has crept through livestock trade, quickly sparking moderate-to-strong softness through live cattle and feeder cattle trade.
3)	April lean hog futures continue to surge higher, driven by fundamental support as commercial buying interest continues to hold prices above $80 per cwt.	3)	Limited news surrounding any trade deal talks with China has created uncertainty in the market, which could lead to mixed messages through the end of the month, leaving prices unsettled.
4)	Cash hog prices have continued to surge higher despite the limited support in futures trade. The need and ability for packers to gain access to market-ready hogs is allowing for increased spending in all areas.	4)	Despite gains in nearby lean hog trade, the inability to sustain buying interest is adding weakness in the entire complex.

#completeherdhealth

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Slide Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS: The April lean hog futures contract surged higher Wednesday on continued support in cash hogs. The rest of the livestock complex remained generally weak on outside market weakness. Cash cattle trade quickly developed Wednesday morning with Southern deals struck at $126 per cwt live. With prices falling $2 per cwt lower from week-ago levels, additional dressed trade started to develop early afternoon Wednesday at $206 to $207. Most trade was seen at $206, which is $2 per cwt lower than last week. Although additional trade may continue to develop through the rest of the week, the tone of the market is already set, likely inking prices for the week at current levels. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $1.87 higher ($64-$80, weighted average $74.92) on 10,605 head sold. Corn futures were lower in light activity with the May down 3 1/2 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 32 points lower with the Nasdaq down 48 points.

LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures settled $0.20 to $1.12 lower. Sharp losses quickly developed across all live cattle trade Wednesday with the June contract leading the complex lower. The summer contracts posted the most significant losses, nearing $1 per cwt. The combination of widespread outside market losses and the spot April futures contract breaking through short-term support levels sparked technical pressure through all nearby contracts. This could lead to increased end-of-the-week liquidation through nearby futures trade. Beef cut-outs: mixed, up $1.54 (select, $220.53) to down $0.52 (choice, $228.99) with light demand and moderate to heavy offerings of 157 loads (99 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, 17 load of trimmings, 30 loads of coarse grinds).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $2 lower. The courtship of bids and asking prices was extremely short this week with light-to-moderate trade developing quickly Wednesday. Follow-through interest is expected to be seen early Thursday, although the tone of the market is likely to be set following midweek trade.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures ended mixed ($0.62 lower to $0.10 higher) as traders focused on outside market pressure. Feeder cattle is the one livestock market that continues to have mixed reactions to outside market pressure, including losses in nearly all commodity markets, energy trade and the stock market. Nearby futures followed the rest of the complex lower as traders continue to remain concerned about the ability to spark follow-through buying as losses developed in live cattle trade. But limited buying trickled into deferred summer and fall feeder cattle futures as traders took into account lower grain prices. This lowers overall production costs for feeding cattle, allowing for increased margin available for feeder cattle prices. CME cash feeder index for 3/26 is $142.15 up $0.11.

LEAN HOGS: Early pressure eased as buyers returned to the lean hogs complex, leading to a mixed close ($0.52 lower to $1.60 higher). Strong gains quickly moved into nearby lean hog trade with the April contract leading the complex higher following support in cash trade. The rest of the complex was less convinced, as triple-digit losses held for most of the session as profit-taking developed. Even though the long-term focus is on expanded domestic pork demand and growing exports, the short-term support in cash trade is leading spot-month contracts higher. Mixed primal values limited pork price gains. The firmness continues, but is much less aggressive. Pork cutout values were up $0.56 per cwt, moving to $81.63 per cwt on 320 loads. CME cash lean index for 3/25 is $67.13, up $2.16. DTN Projected lean index for 3/26: $69.50, up $2.37.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $2 higher. Strong buyer support is expected to develop through the rest of the week. Most bids are expected to develop $1 per cwt higher, but the range of the market is likely to remain wide. Thursday slaughter is expected at 477,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 146,000 head.

#completecalfcare