Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Markets Don't Seem to Like Tuesdays

GENERAL COMMENTS:

When it comes down to it, livestock markets typically don't perform well on Tuesdays, just like most of the workforce dreads Mondays. Tuesday's market didn't squander all of Monday's gains in the live cattle and feeder cattle markets, but the lean hog sector did struggle. Prices are down on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average of $51.12. December corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 19.30 points and NASDAQ is down 49.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Nearby live cattle contracts warmed up after the noon hour and successfully continued into the closing hour when the live cattle market closed predominately mixed. Nearby contracts up $0.10 to $0.32, while deferred contracts are down $0.07 to $0.40. December live cattle are up $0.22 at $116.82, February live cattle are up $0.25 at $121.97 and the April board (posting the highest prices) is up $0.32 at $123.52. The near expiring October contract closed Tuesday at $113.35 and the market hasn't been that high since early May. Scattered bids have started to float around in Texas, bids of $110.00 have been placed in Nebraska and asking prices are mostly at $115.00.

Closing boxed beef prices are higher again: choice up $2.65 ($230.55) and select is up $2.81 ($203.57) with a total boxed beef movement of 108 loads (54.44 loads of choice cuts, 22.61 loads of select cuts, 12.33 loads of trim and 18.70 loads of ground beef). Tuesday's slaughter totaled 117,000 head - down 2,000 head from both a week and year ago.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. With boxed beef prices roaring, packers are going to want to keep processing speeds as energetic as possible and get as many cattle processed while demand remains.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle contracts closed mostly lower, though the November contract was able to trade within Monday's means and closed near Monday's open. November feeder cattle are down $0.25 at $145.47 and January feeder cattle are steady at $141.60. On an estimated run of 6,108 head (up 449 head from the previous week) Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri sold feeder steers and heifers steady to $4.00 lower, and yearlings steady to $2.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 10/28/19: $144.83, up $0.48.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex couldn't stay as spry as other markets were able to on Tuesday. Giving up anywhere from $0.05 to $1.35, lean hog markets closed lower. Being pressured by huge supply, beef products taking the limelight at retail, and having little to no insight to nearby export potential -- it's easy to see why hog markets are feeling the pinch. Pork cutouts for the day totaled 411.25 loads with 350.54 loads of pork cuts and 60.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.69 at $76.72. The CME lean hog index 10/25/19: down $0.97 at $64.12.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: $1.00 lower. With packer's margins getting smaller in the hog sector, there's little chance that higher prices are in store for cash hogs with supply booming out of every barn.

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Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Blissful Monday Followed by Uninspired Tuesday

General Comments

Most folks dread Mondays, but the livestock complex rolls its eyes and kicks the door while walking into the office every Tuesday. The market is up and trading (barely), it's too early for cash cattle business to get under way and markets just aren't interested in stepping to the plate to bat on Tuesdays typically. This Tuesday market is nothing but exactly that. Despite having a positive Monday market, Tuesday's market couldn't care less whether or not Monday's market closed strong. All three livestock markets are approaching the noon hour somewhat lower, with live cattle only being down slightly with some contracts trying to gain support and the lean hog market being down the most. December corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.63 points and NASDAQ is down 27.35 points.

LIVE CATTLE

As more time passes on the live cattle complex, it shows some interest in rallying on nearby contracts. December live cattle are up $0.10 at $116.67, February live cattle are steady at $121.72 and April live cattle are up $0.10 at $123.30. Deferred contracts still aren't ready to wake up and smell the sunshine. There are 433 head of heifers consigned to Wednesday's Fed Cattle Exchange. One pen from Texas, and three pens from Kansas all with one-to-nine-day delivery. Cash cattle trade has yet to develop.

Midday boxed beef cutouts are higher: choice up $3.38 ($231.28) and select up $2.71 ($203.47) with 48 total loads of movement (21.14 loads of choice cuts, 9.49 loads of select cuts, 8.27 loads of trim and 9.32 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

Feeder cattle markets are mostly lower. November feeder cattle are down $0.10 at $145.62, January feeder cattle are up $0.07 at $141.67 and March feeder cattle contracts are down $0.12 at $140.72. Given that it's still too early in the week for exciting cash cattle trade to happen, that the market is immersed with weaned calves at sale barns and that most of cow-calf country has gotten snow the last couple of days -- Tuesday's market doesn't have a lot of cards stacked in its favor. As the week moves on and the fat cattle market has the potential to lock in gains again, the feeder cattle market may be able to muster up strength then.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog market tumbles into Tuesday opening lower than Monday's close and showing no mercy in nearby contracts. Nearby contracts are down the most, although contracts through the lean hog complex are being pushed lower. December lean hogs are down $1.75 at $63.90, February lean hogs are down $1.77 at $72.20, and the April contract is down $1.20 at $78.70.

The projected lean hog index for 10/28/19 is down $0.61 at $63.51, and the actual lean hog index for 10/25/19 is down $0.97 at $64.12. Prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.73 with a weighted average of $50.87, ranging from $47.00 to $53.16 on 12,915 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $52.88. Pork cutouts totaled 208.27 loads with 189.27 loads of pork cuts and 19.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are higher, up $1.13 at $77.16.

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Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Continued Bullish Cattle Support Likely

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle prices last week increased 40 cents per cwt from the previous week with an average price of $110.13 per cwt. This underlying fundamental support may continue to develop through the end of the month, although no significant cash trade is expected to develop over the next couple of days. With Friday landing in November, it is uncertain just how interested packers will be to get weekly cash cattle trades on the books before the calendar changes. This is likely to be a company-by-company decision, and could determine how aggressive packers get about sourcing cattle during the last two days of the month. Asking prices are still undeveloped, as are bids, but more interest is expected as the week continues. The underlying tone of live cattle futures continues firm with additional strong long-term gains developing Monday, setting fall highs as December contracts closed at $116.60 per cwt. The slow, but steady gains in live cattle have done well for the complex and continue to build firm, underlying support through the market. Tuesday seems to be the day when a market will quickly change directions, if one is seen, creating some uncertainty about continued market support even though the underlying tone of the complex remains strong. A light to moderate price correction would not be shocking given the continued upward motion seen in the complex since early September. Tuesday slaughter runs are expected at 117,000 head.

Firm, early week support slowly trickled into lean hog futures Monday. A phase 1 trade deal appears to be on track for signatures in November, but a lot of questions remain on what this will mean for U.S. pork sales to China. The fact that December lean hog futures have fallen nearly $7 per cwt since October trade talks and the last indication of active export sales to China indicates the entire market needs more information and direct results before they are truly convinced this phase of a trade deal will significantly help pork prices. There has been very little mention of pork during these negotiations and that is concerning to the complex, especially following China's announcement Monday that they will end the ban on U.S. chicken imports. Large hog supplies continue to burden the market, eroding cash and wholesale pork support through late October; this is likely to remain a major issue the rest of the year. Cash hog values are expected to be steady to $1 per cwt lower, with most bids expected $1 lower. Expected slaughter Tuesday is at 490,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures continue to march steadily higher, with December futures holding well above $116 per cwt. This continued strength accounts for a generally unchecked rally of $17.43 since early September.	1)	Weekly showlists continue generally strong, with increases in all areas except Kansas. Despite moving past seasonal peak levels seen over the last month, current showlists are running nearly 20,000 head above year ago levels.
2)	Firm cash market gains developed last week, continuing the upward rally to a six-week stretch. Given the support in beef values and futures trade early in the week, feedlot managers appear intent on continuing higher prices for a seventh consecutive week.	2)	Feeder cattle futures remain stuck in a sideways pattern, with limited underlying support despite recent gains in live cattle trade. The inability to break through October highs over the next week may continue to define a moderate sideways trend through November.
3)	Firm support in lean hog futures moved prices away from three-week lows. This may help solidify additional buyer support as traders look for positive long-term strength over the near future.	3)	The amount of market-ready hogs coming to market continues to burden the entire system. This is limiting buyer support, leaving prices hovering near the bottom end of short-term trading ranges.
4)	Strong summer premiums continue to hold, currently near $30 per cwt above December price levels. Although seasonal support remains evident, the focus on better export trade over the next several months is still keeping traders optimistic.	4)	Cash hog prices continue to erode lower, as packers remain flooded with available hogs and, following the latest market downturn in futures prices over the last three weeks, are intent on protecting plant margins, if possible, through the end of the month.

#completeherdhealth

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Higher Prices in Livestock Contracts Look Forward

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Monday's markets closed higher in all three livestock contracts, and most surprisingly, even in the lean hog market. Live cattle contracts were expected to close higher with the neutral Cattle on Feed report and robust boxed beef prices, but the lean hog market rallied to surprise many. Prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.10 with a weighted average of $51.98. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 132.66 points and NASDAQ is up 82.87 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures closed with support intertwined throughout the complex. The expiring October contract closed the highest, up $0.90 at $112.87 and December live cattle closed up $0.52 at $116.60. More and more interest in gaining in the live cattle contracts, with most interest developing in the December 2019 contract. Last week secured the live cattle market's sixth week worth of rallied support. Given that showlists are mixed going into this week, that boxed beef prices are soaring and that packers have plenty of incentive to keep harvesting cattle at a vigorous rate -- cash cattle trade (though still too early to develop) could be set up for higher money again this week. Closing boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.46 ($227.90) and select up $0.92 ($200.76) with 81 loads total of boxed beef movement (37.07 loads of choice cuts, 20.83 loads of select cuts, 11.72 loads of trim and 11.55 loads of ground beef). Monday's slaughter totaled 118,000 head, even with both a week and year ago.

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1 higher. Tuesday most likely won't have any fat cattle trade, but when trade does occur it will most likely be for higher money this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

On an estimated run of 6,450 head at Crawford Livestock Market in Crawford, Nebraska, on Friday steers sold unevenly while heifers weighing 450 pounds sold $8.00 higher, 400-pound and 500-pound heifers sold $4.00 to $5.00 higher and 550-pound heifers sold $1.00 higher compared to the previous week. Most calves were preconditioned and weaned right off the cow; demand was considered moderate to good with some coming from bids off the internet. October's expiring contract closed $0.30 lower at $145.40, and the November feeder cattle contract closed $0.35 higher at $145.72. The CME feeder cattle index for 10/25/19: $144.35, down $0.41.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market jumped Monday, letting the noon hour pass and then securing higher prices at the close. Though still very limited in cumulative interest, contracts were able to find a wide-range of support in both nearby and deferred contracts and closed up $0.72 higher in the December 2019 contract. There is a possibility that prices latched onto the momentum building in the cattle contracts. Pork cutouts totaled 282.17 loads with 242.18 loads of pork cuts and 40.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.53 at $76.03. The CME lean hog index for 10/24/19: $65.09, down $0.40.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Despite Monday's board closing higher, it would be a tough game of cards to expect Tuesday's cash hog market to be higher. With packer's margins getting tighter in the hog sector, buyers aren't going to give easy money away.

#completeherdhealth