Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Building Into a Bullish Market

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

The surge in oil prices helped fuel positivity throughout the marketplace and ensured that cattle contracts closed higher. Feedlots are thankful to see the board's encouraged spirit as they patiently wait to move this week's cash cattle market higher. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.45 with a weighted average of $57.87 on 8,290 head. March corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 454.57 points and NASDAQ is up 156.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though cash cattle have yet to trade, feedlots are loving how this week is shaping up. With continued support from the board and with boxed beef prices still scaling higher, this week's cash cattle market could easily trade $2.00 to $4.00 stronger, as long as feedlots work together in marketing their showlists this week. Tuesday's boxed beef close was impressive. not only because both choice and select cuts closed higher again, but because packers continue to move ample amounts of product. Tuesday's boxed beef movement of 161 is encouraging that packers intend to keep chain speed elevated and consequently will need more cattle in the days and weeks to come. December live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $111.17, February live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $113.95 and April live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $117.15. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.70 ($244.30) and select up $2.23 ($219.71) with a movement of 161 loads (97.10 loads of choice, 20.89 loads of select, 11.71 loads of trim and 31.54 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. So long as feedlots work together and collectively push for higher prices, the market could easily see an advancement of $2.00 to $4.00 stronger given the other supporting factors within the market. Pinpointing when that trade will develop is slightly difficult, but bids could develop as early as Wednesday morning after the online auction.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market scaled lower into Tuesday's close, which continued to allow the feeder cattle market to trade higher. January feeders closed $0.77 higher at $138.60, March feeders closed $0.85 higher at $138.12 and April feeders closed $0.37 higher at $139.35. Feeder cattle prices are hit and miss throughout the countryside as sales that are able to attract buyers are seeing good prices, but some markets are noticing that the holiday shortened week is leaving a few more of their seats empty this week.

At Tri-State Livestock Auction in McCook, Nebraska, compared to a week ago, steers sold $1.00 to $7.00 stronger and heifers traded $4.00 to $7.00 lower. With yearlings becoming harder and harder to come by, they continue to be met with excellent demand, especially if there's a full load of them available. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 23: up $0.18, $137.12.

LEAN HOGS:

Support grew stronger in the lean hog market throughout the afternoon and left the market to close mostly higher. December lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $65.30, February lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $66.75 and April lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $70.22. The market's development came from the support seen throughout the rest of the futures market as, fundamentally, the market wasn't aided by a stronger cash trade nor a higher cutout value. Pork cutouts totaled 413.82 loads with 371.88 loads of pork cuts and 42.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.19, $77.58. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 497,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 20:

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Slightly lower. As the market moves closer to Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday, packer ambition to support the cash market will most likely be minimal.

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Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Keep Snappy Pace

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live and feeder cattle futures continue to find support while lean hog futures fight some pressure in nearby contracts. The cash cattle market is still quiet with trade not expected to develop until sometime Wednesday, most likely after the online auction. March corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 482.28 points and NASDAQ is up 121.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are picking up right where Monday left off and are motivated to rally all through Tuesday's trade. As the day continues to find support from willing traders, the February live cattle contract has jumped above last week's high. December live cattle are up $1.35 at $111.35, February live cattle are up $1.50 at $114.40 and April live cattle are up $1.07 at $117.62. With boxed beef prices keeping their upward progression and the futures market fully supported, cash cattle could have an opportunity to trade $1.00 to $2.00 stronger. Thus far the week's cash cattle trade remains nonexistent with traders lightly inquiring on cattle, but bids have yet to hit the table. Asking prices of $111 to $112 have been set in parts of the Southern Plains, but the North has yet to determine their prices this week.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.69 ($244.29) and select up $2.01 ($219.49) with a movement of 65 loads (36.24 loads of choice, 14.62 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.98 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As corn continues to trade mostly $0.02 lower in nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market scales higher as it feels fully supported. January feeders are up $1.12 at $138.95, March feeders are up $1.17 at $138.45 and April feeders are up $0.67 at $139.65. With cash cattle itching to trade higher and the futures market fully supporting both cattle markets, feeder cattle are selling well early this week despite last week's softness seen Thursday and Friday.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market has faded to the background as the day is inconclusive on whether the market should trade fully higher or lower. Nearby contracts are facing some minor resistance but as time moves closer and closer to the noon hour, the support throughout the futures market is lessening that burden and could push the market fully higher. Still the market neglects to find substantial support from cutout values which could help fundamentally support the contracts. December lean hogs are down $0.15 at $64.80, February lean hogs are down $0.57 at $66.55 and April lean hogs are up $0.15 at $70.35.

Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.39 with a weighted average of $57.93, ranging from $50.00 to $58.50 on 3,662 head and a 5-day rolling average of $58.06. Pork cutouts total 283.42 loads with 252.76 loads of pork cuts and 30.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.04, $77.81.

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Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Week Optimism Met By Outside Market Pressure

 General Comments:

Cash cattle activity remains undeveloped and quiet early Tuesday morning. This is no surprise, although with the holiday-shortened trading week, it is likely that more packer interest will be shown Tuesday. Feeders are becoming much more aggressive in pricing cattle this week following the combination of rising beef values as well as strong futures gains Monday. But this may be offset by potential light trade needed to be seen from packers through the week. Although bids were scattered and limited Monday, the fact that initial bids remained steady with last week's price levels initially points to the possibility of market firmness through the next few days. Both sides are expected to try to wrap cash cattle trade up by the end of day Wednesday in order not to resume duties on Friday after the holiday. Feeder cattle futures took the reins Monday, sparking gains near $3 per cwt in most nearby contracts with the focus on underlying outside market support. This is expected to create moderate spillover trade early Tuesday despite the concern that outside market pressure may start developing the rest of the week. With December live cattle futures moving back to $110 per cwt thanks to triple-digit gains Monday, the focus on further underlying buyer support in late November is drawing renewed commercial buyer interest back into the complex. Live cattle futures remain well entrenched within a sideways trading range, limiting expected technical market shifts, but the strength in beef market fundamentals continues to add support to the market. Continued focus on COVID-19 vaccine tests and the possibility for market-ready product at the end of the year is creating some renewed hope that beef demand will improve through the first half of 2021.

Sharp gains continue in lean hog futures Monday, quickly breaking through initial resistance levels seen through the middle of November as traders once again distance price levels away from long-term support levels. The recent market support is likely to be spurred on by tighter pork supplies following Monday's Cold Storage report. Pork supplies in October fell 4% from the previous month, and down a whopping 27% from year-ago levels. This continues to focus on the aggressive movement of pork through the system even though hog supplies remain aggressive. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to $1 higher with most bids expected steady 50 cents lower. Slaughter Tuesday is expected at 491,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 385,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Sharp gains in nearby feeder cattle futures has sparked renewed underlying support through the entire cattle complex. With January feeder cattle leading the entire cattle market higher with gains of $3.22 per cwt Monday, traders look to expand the recent market support.	1)	Cash cattle markets have lagged the support in futures trade and boxed beef values through the month of November. With boxed beef values gaining over $33 per cwt in the last month, cash values have struggled to move $5 per cwt higher within this period. This may continue to limit upward support in cash values through the end of the year.
2)	Boxed beef values continue to show no sign of letting up as aggressive buying support is seen in choice and select markets. The triple-digit gains Monday added to the building market momentum as choice boxed beef values have rallied $33 per cwt through the month of November.	2)	Limited trade during the week could limit consistent trader interest, allowing for traders to quickly become spooked by outside markets, leading to potentially wide price swings lower.
3)	Lean hog futures have rallied over $4 per cwt in spot February contracts over the last three trading sessions. The underlying support is expected to bring additional buyer interest to the complex over the next couple of days.	3)	Active pressure in many outside market commodities during overnight trade is creating uncertainty about additional upward futures moves early Tuesday morning. Typically, holiday weeks like this have a tendency to lead to wide price swings due to limited volume in the market. This can many times disrupt trade patterns for weeks to come.
4)	Pork in cold storage has fallen 27% from year-ago levels with pork bellies falling 57% with in the same period. The aggressive movement of pork through the end of 2020 is helping to spark renewed focus on steady to stronger pork demand as the industry continues to keep up with current commitments.	4)	Cash hog values have struggled to remain stable despite the active pork movement seen in the cold storage report and need for packers to aggressively keep procurement levels at or near capacity levels. This may limit upward movement in cash prices through the end of the year.

#completeherdhealth

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Cling to Support

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a prosperous Monday for livestock contracts as support was willing to move all three markets higher and the day closed substantially stronger in the feeder cattle market. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.50 with a weighted average of $58.33 on 8,012 head. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 361.86 points and NASDAQ is up 38.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Monday's live cattle market was generous considering how bearish the market closed last week. December live cattle closed $1.90 higher at $110.00, February live cattle closed $2.25 higher at $112.90 and April live cattle closed $2.10 higher at $116.55. With it being a holiday week, packers will try to get cattle bought cheaper because of the shortened week. But feedlots are expected to price cattle at least steady with last week's trade, if not slightly higher. As feedlots watch boxed beef prices scale stronger, they realize that packers have more to give. Monday's cash cattle trade was at a standstill as packers showed slight interest but not enough to develop anything into actual business. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.25 ($241.60) and select up $2.50 ($217.48) with a movement of 122 loads (71.21 loads of choice, 25.19 loads of select, 9.90 loads of trim and 15.56 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. With packers having sold a lot of out-front orders, they need to keep processing speeds elevated in order to meet all their commitments. With that being the case, feedlots have an opportunity to move the market higher, especially if the board cooperates.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Monday's feeder cattle market soaked up every ounce of support that the market offered and couldn't have cared less that the corn market kept its $0.03 to $0.05 gain in nearby contracts through closing. The feeder cattle market moved the livestock contracts higher as it was the market that made the boldest moves throughout the day. January feeders closed $3.22 higher at $137.82, March feeders closed $2.90 higher at $137.27 and April feeders closed $2.80 higher at $138.97. A Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to a week ago, steer calves and yearling steers under 750 pounds sold steady, steers weighing over 750 pounds traded steady to $5.00 higher. Heifer calves traded steady to $2.00 higher and yearling heifers sold steady. Demand was considered moderate to somewhat strong and supply was heavy, but thankfully the day's stronger futures market helped boost the market's moral. The CME feeder cattle index for Nov. 20: up $0.19, $136.94.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the lean hog market has been dead set on determining a nearby low and has traded sideways over the last month, Monday's lean hog market got to soak up some of the support floating through the marketplace. December lean hogs closed $0.82 higher at $64.95, February lean hogs closed $1.77 higher at $67.12 and April lean hogs closed $1.97 higher at $70.20. Unfortunately, until the market sees some significant consumer demand, the market may be pressured to continue to trade mostly steady. Pork cutouts totaled 443.35 loads with 407.17 loads of pork cuts and 36.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.40, $77.77. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 497,000 head - 20,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index for Nov. 19: down $0.63, $68.14.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Given that it's a holiday-shortened week, the cash hog market will most likely be uneventful as packers plan their schedules for an unusual week.

#completecalfcare