First-Half Beef Exports on a Billion-Dollar Pace

America’s beef exports remained on a red-hot pace during June, topping $1 billion for the fifth time this year. Data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation also shows that pork exports stayed below last year’s totals during June while lamb exports continued trending higher. June’s beef exports reached 130,600 metric tons, down slightly from the record volume posted in May but up 16 percent year-over-year and the fourth-largest on record. June’s export value was $1.05 billion, also down slightly from the May record but 31 percent higher than last year. Beef export value through the first six months reached $6.19 billion. June’s pork exports totaled 219,100 metric tons, eight percent lower than last year, and valued at $649.9 million. First-half pork exports were 18 percent below last year and valued at $3.62 billion, 16 percent lower than 2021. June lamb exports rose 56 percent compared to 2021 at 1,700 metric tons.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Limited Price Movement Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle did not have much to go on during Friday's trade. Cash prices did not change, leaving traders mainly watching outside markets and anticipating what the upcoming week would bring. Packers are not anticipated to be aggressive this week if they do not need to be. Although there is expectation of tighter supply over time, the here and now indicates ample supply for the market. Boxed beef closed lower Friday with choice down $1.66 and select down $1.68.

Hogs found no support from the cash market Friday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a decline of $2.76. There is little expectation for cash to be higher Monday as packers will assess weekend demand, which will influence Tuesday's trade. Hog futures were able to close higher for the week, keeping the uptrend intact. This is the final week for the August contract, which may see limited movement. Cutouts were slightly higher posting a gain of $0.23.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle have been in an uptrend with the anticipation of tighter supply as the year progresses.	1)	There are sufficient cattle available to the market at the present time, limiting upside price potential.
2)	October live cattle have a chart gap to the upside that may be filled sooner rather than later.	2)	Slow export sales last week leave more beef on the domestic market, which may require lower prices to stimulate consumer interest.
3)	The hog market continues to see support from the strength of cutouts. This indicates demand is holding well.	3)	Cash hogs are expected lower Monday as usual, possibly limiting trader interest in buying futures.
4)	Overall continued strength of cash should result in strength in the October contract due to the large discount.	4)	Hog futures have chart gaps substantially lower that may be filled over time.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Higher Closes Round the Week Out for Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday's market led the livestock contracts to a higher close as the market received ample fundamental support, especially in the cash cattle market. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.76 with a weighted average of $124.43 on 6,019 head. December corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $15.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 76.65 points.

From Friday to Friday Livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle up $1.43, October live cattle up $1.65; August feeder cattle up $0.95, September feeders cattle up $1.88; August lean hogs up $0.17, October lean hogs up $1.18; September corn down $0.06, December corn down $0.10.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed the week on a higher tone as the market celebrates the cash cattle market's win. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $135 to $136, which is steady to $1 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals were marked at mostly $225 to $227, which is steady to $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Next week's market could trade steady or even lower, which wouldn't be unusual for the time of year it is. However, as packers look to Labor Day and try to gauge the meat needed, they aren't going to be short product to sell. August live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $137.87, October live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $143.87 and December live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $149.97.

Fresh beef imports for the week totaled 22,626 metric tons with Canada, Mexico and New Zealand being the biggest importers. 2022 fresh beef imports YTD total 720,621 metric tons, which is 13% more than a year ago. Processed beef imports totaled 1,717 metric tons, with the year's total processed beef imports totaling 55,745 metrics tons, which is 24% more than a year ago.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 9,000 head less than a week ago but steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 39,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 651,000 head, 18,000 head less than a week ago but 7,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.40 ($263.88) and select down $1.68 ($238.67) with a movement of 191 loads (146.70 loads of choice, 15.95 loads of select, 8.75 loads of trim and 19.23 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts average $268.45 (down $1.26 from the previous week) and select cuts averaged $242.75 (up $0.41 from the previous week) with a total movement of 523 loads of cuts, grinds and trim.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Trade won't likely develop until later in the week and at that point, feedlots are going to bat for at least steady prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with corn closing $0.03 to $0.08 higher, the feeder cattle market rounded out the week higher as it's got all the fundamental support it needed this past week. With corn prices closing slightly lower than a week ago and with fat cattle able to add $1.00 to $2.00 to the market -- and buyers still buying aggressively in sales throughout the week -- the feeder cattle market wasn't short of support. August feeders closed $0.45 higher $179.52, September feeders closed $0.85 higher at $183.42 and October feeders closed $0.47 higher at $185.95. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Summary shared that, throughout the entire state, compared to last week, feeder steers traded mostly steady, but feeder heifers traded $1.00 to $4.00 higher. Steer calves traded $3.00 higher while heifer calves traded $3.00 lower. Slaughter cow and bull demand improved greatly this week and prices of both classes sold $8.00-$12.00 higher. Prices improved despite a somewhat higher number of cows making their move to market. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 4: up $1.68, $175.43.

LEAN HOGS:

The nearby lean hog contracts were able to keep their contracts elevated through closing while the deferred months closely slightly lower. August lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $120.82, October lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $98.40 and December lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $88.82. With the October contract breaking above the resistance at $98.00, the market will be pressured early next week to either support that move or drop back below the resistance plane. If pork cutouts and slaughter speeds can add support, then the contract may be able to sustain such levels. Friday's pork cutout report closed slightly higher with bellies leading the charge as they gained $6.79, and ribs gained $3.18. Pork cutouts total 278.78 loads with 248.77 loads of pork cuts and 30.01 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.23, $125.03. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 460,000 head, 23,000 head more than week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 61,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 3: up $0.67, $121.61.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers don't really buy on Mondays anymore, the market will likely be lower until they actively buy on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Aim to Close Higher Ahead of Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into the last trading afternoon of the week, the cattle contracts are trading fully higher as the market clings to the fact that cash cattle traded higher this week. Meanwhile, the lean hog contracts are trading mixed as some of the nearby contracts are attempting to break through resistance but it's unknown if they'll maintain these levels as fundamental support is touch and go this week. December corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $15.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 95.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are pushing for higher prices heading into Friday's afternoon as the market still clings to the fact that cash cattle were able to trade higher this week. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live trade has traded at mostly $135 to $136, which is steady to $1 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals have been marked at mostly $225 to $227, which is steady to $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. It wouldn't be unlikely to see a little more clean-up trade develop ahead of the week's end, but largely the business is done with. The week's slaughter is anticipated to be another big one, which helps offset the slight pressure from lower boxes. August feeders are up $0.35 at $138.05, October feeders are up $0.57 at $144.22 and December feeders are up $0.40 at $150.30.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.18 ($265.10) and select down $1.08 ($239.27) with a movement of 65 loads (40.45 loads of choice, 11.98 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12.58 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even as the corn market pushed a $0.06 to $0.09 rally heading into the afternoon's trade, the feeder cattle contracts don't seem to care as the nearby contracts are pushing gains well over $1.00 higher. This past week was incredibly important for the feeder cattle market. With cash cattle prices able to trade $0.50 to $2.00 higher, it proves the fact that packers are clipping though cattle and running through these supplies faster than originally thought. Given that feeder cattle placements have been so high due to drought managing practices, feeder cattle buyers needed to see that there was going to be better demand for fats, which they began to see this week. As the market inches closer to the fall run, feeder cattle demand should only get better and has the potential to get extremely strong if the fat cattle market grows stronger. August feeders are up $1.02 at $180.22, September feeders are up $1.52 at $184.10 and October feeders are up $1.05 at $186.52.

LEAN HOGS:

The largest currently traded October lean hog contract has broken above the market's short-term resistance at $97.50 and is trading higher into Friday's afternoon. It's a toss-up at this point how the futures market will close, as support is scarce throughout the complex, but both the October and December 2022 contracts are charging ahead despite cautions elsewhere. The biggest things to watch for Friday afternoon will be how the day's estimated slaughter and pork cutout values. Pork cutout values have ping-ponged around this week and the market would like to see more stable and consistent support. October lean hogs are up $0.90 at $98.50, December lean hogs are up $0.15 at $88.77 and February lean hogs are down $0.10 at $91.35.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 4 is up $0.48 at $122.09, and the actual index for Aug. 3 is up $0.67 at $121.61. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.37 with a weighted average of $123.67, ranging from $115.00 to $135.00 on 5,499 head and a five-day rolling average of $125.75. Pork cutouts total 153.14 loads with 134.90 loads of pork cuts and 18.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.31, $124.49.