Both the live cattle and feeder cattle
contracts closed on a higher note while the lean hog complex remained
pressured through closing Friday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily
Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.07 with a weighted average of
$97.68 on 3,380 head. December corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and
December soybean meal is up $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is
down 337.98 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures
scored the following changes: October live cattle up $1.50, December
live cattle up $1.15; September feeder cattle up $1.68, October feeders
cattle up $1.55; September feeder cattle up $1.68, October feeder cattle
up $1.55; October lean hogs down $0.63, December lean hogs down $0.25;
September corn steady, December corn up $0.01.
Friday allowed for the live cattle complex to
round the week out with some excitement, as the market not only closed
higher, but it also showed it still possesses the long-term bullish
trend needed to keep the market turning higher, as it never broke below
its support levels. October live cattle closed $1.75 higher at $144.55,
December live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $150.25 and February live
cattle closed $1.22 higher at $154.37. Throughout the week, Southern
live cattle have traded for $141, which is $1.00 lower than last week's
weighted average, and Northern cattle have traded for $228 to $230,
which is $3.00 to $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Nevertheless, while it was frustrating for feedlots to sell cattle
cheaper this past week, the market didn't end on a completely negative
note, as the complex clearly showed that the bulls are still alive and
well and could be anxious to trade higher early next week. Given the
fact that packers haven't bought many cattle in the cash cattle marekt
over the past two weeks, they'll likely have to be more aggressive in
the cash market in the weeks to come.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at
123,000 head, steady with a week about but 9,000 head more than a year
ago. Saturday's slaughter is expected to be around 17,000 head. This
week's slaughter is estimated at 638,000 head, 40,000 head less than a
week ago but still 17,000 head more than a year ago.
Friday's import data shared that, for the
week, fresh beef imports totaled 21,047 metric tons with Canada, Mexico,
Australia, and New Zealand being the biggest importers. Year to date,
2022 fresh been imports total 803,078 metric tons, which is 9% greater
than a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week totaled 2,775
metric tons, with a year-to-date total of 63,646 metric tons, which is
21% greater than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up
$1.35 ($259.42) and select up $1.99 ($238.58) with a movement of 89
loads (54.29 loads of choice, 16.69 loads of select, 5.50 loads of trim
and 12.68 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts
averaged $259.73 (down $3.56 from a week ago) and select cuts averaged
$239.07 (down $0.85 from a week ago) and the week's movement of cuts,
grinds and trim totaled 607 loads.
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that
packers were such lax buyers over the past two weeks, that likely means
they've given up some inventory and that they'll need to be aggressive
buyers in the coming weeks to ensure that they have enough cattle for
their rigorous kill schedule.
While the corn market pushed a $0.07 to $0.10
rally in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market didn't mind one
bit as traders helped propel its contracts higher ahead of Friday's
close. September feeders closed $0.72 higher at $183.87, October feeders
closed $0.60 higher at $184.95 and November feeders closed $0.55 higher
at $186.25. The market's stronger close at the end of this week signals
that, even though trade was lackadaisical throughout the week, the
market hasn't forgotten that its long-term trajectory is higher. Early
next week, some feeder cattle sales will be closed after the Labor Day
weekend but come Wednesday, the market should be back to a normal
schedule. Oklahoma's Weekly Summary shared that, throughout the entire
state, and when compared to last week's sales, feeder steers traded
steady to $3.00 lower and feeder heifers traded mostly steady to $2.00
lower. Steer calves traded steady to $4.00 lower with the biggest
decline on the heavier weights, and heifer calves traded $3.00 to $8.00
lower. Slaughter cows and bulls traded steady to $2.00 lower. Feeder
cattle supply over 600 pounds was 41%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for
Sept. 1: down $0.11, $181.25.
The lean hog market continued to trade lower
into Friday's end as the market lacked both technical and fundamental
support. From a fundamental side, the cash hog market lacked any
sizeable interest from packers as they simply were unwilling to chase
the cash market when their margins have sunk below $10 per carcass.
Unfortunately, it's likely that the market continues to see pushback
from packers until their bottom line strengthens. Watching pork cutout
values will continue to be incredibly important because when packers
start to see better interest in the retail market, they'll likely grow
more active in the cash market, but until then, the market's interest
could be bleak. October lean hogs closed $1.92 lower at $90.02, December
lean hogs closed $1.07 lower at $82.70 and February lean hogs closed
$0.85 lower at $86.70. Pork cutouts totaled 302.58 loads with 276.28
loads of pork cuts and 26.30 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up
$0.39, $102.25. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 425,000 head, 26,000
head less than a week ago and 31,000 head less than a year ago.
Saturday's slaughter is estimated to be around 10,000 head. The CME Lean
Hog Index for Aug. 31: down $1.36, $106.26.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Until
packers see better interest in the market where more profits can be
made, it's unlikely that they're aggressive in the cash sector.
