Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - After a Rough Start to the Week, Contracts are Trading Higher Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

After enduring immense pressure earlier in the week, the livestock contracts have finally found some stability in the futures complex this week. A handful of cattle have sold in the North at $328, but with only a handful having been sold at this point, no trend has been established yet for the week. March corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 105.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After facing some stiff opposition earlier in the week as traders had to sort through the long list of news headlines that broke over the weekend, the complex finally seems to be finding stable ground again in technical sphere of the market. February live cattle are up $1.95 at $203.82, April live cattle are up $2.60 at $201.22 and June live cattle are up $2.60 at $195.82. Amid the market's recent decline, there's ample room for the market to trade higher again without concerns of resistance pressures looming. But again, fundamental support will be necessary as traders have faced hurdles already this week. Packer interest should continue to improve throughout the day, and it's likely that trade could break loose at any point in time now. Some light cash cattle trade has been reported in Nebraska at $328, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. But with only a few cattle having been traded, the week hasn't established a trend just yet. Asking prices are still noted in the South at $208, and $329 plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.59 ($326.14) and select down $2.21 ($315.20) with a movement of 87 loads (50.47 loads of choice, 24.96 loads of select, 3.98 loads of trim and 7.36 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Wednesday has come with a sigh of relief as the live cattle contacts are back to trading higher and the feeder cattle complex is also thankful to see corn prices now trending lower. March feeders are up $2.02 at $270.35, April feeders are up $2.37 at $270.00 and May feeders are up $2.60 at $268.40. Thankfully demand in the countryside remains plentiful as buyers are aware that supplies of feeder cattle are going to remain thin this year, and the closer time gets to turn out season and green grass in the spring, the more likely it is that feeders are going to be more expensive.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading higher as traders are relieved to see that President Trump and Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum have found some middle ground, which is vital to the lean hog market's wellbeing. Mexico is the biggest export market for U.S. pork. February lean hogs are up $0.87 at $85.95, April lean hogs are up $0.75 at $90.50 and June lean hogs are up $1.05 at $103.00. Midday pork cutout values are slightly lower, but traders are hopeful that domestic demand will prevail this week as it has in recent weeks and continue to show strong consumer confidence.

The projected lean hog index for 2/4/2025 is up $0.52 at $84.60, and the actual index for 2/3/2025 is up $0.31 at $84.08. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average 86.45, ranging from $81.50 to $87.00 on 2,175 head and a five-day rolling average of $85.21 on 2,175 head. Pork cutouts total 204.84 loads with 190.90 loads of pork cuts and 13.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.47, $94.29.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Volatility Expected to Remain High

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle led the charge lower Tuesday. Cash cattle have been traded this week, but there is a strong chance cash may be no better than steady with last week. Feedlots may be more aggressive sellers as they may feel the market is running out of steam to the upside. It is too early to tell with the recent pressure stemming from the uncertainty of the tariff situation and cattle imports from Mexico resuming. Fund traders held record-long futures positions, which may also have added to the liquidation. Packers may be less apt to bid up for cattle this week if they sense feedlots might be anxious to sell. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.26 and select down $2.43.

Hog traders responded quickly to the news that tariffs on Mexico and Canada were delayed. Futures regained the losses of Monday as traders felt comfortable buying into the market for the long term. Either futures will maintain a large sideways trading pattern or they will push to new highs soon. Pork cutouts increased $0.95 on Tuesday. This should keep the packers aggressive Wednesday as they purchase hogs to fulfill their needs for the week. Hog supplies are current and increased slaughter requires more hogs. The demand for pork is showing signs of improving.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have corrected from being overbought. This may increase the interest from traders to buy back into the market as cattle supplies remain tight.	1)	The weakness of cattle futures and the uncertainty of the tariff situation may keep pressure on the market as fund traders liquidate more of their long positions.
2)	Mexico and Canada are taking steps to avoid tariffs being implemented. For the time being, this could provide support to the market.	2)	Packers may take advantage of the uncertainty of the market and be less aggressive in the cash market. Feedlots may want to move cattle in case prices have reached a top for the time being.
3)	Hog slaughter remains strong and above a year ago. This indicates demand is good and the packers need to purchase hogs to maintain the slaughter pace.	3)	Hog futures rebounded nicely Tuesday but the upside may be limited. This may result in futures developing a large sideways trading pattern.
4)	The rebound of hog futures on Tuesday is a testament to resiliency of the market. Traders may be willing to buy any price breaks now that tariffs are on hold.	4)	The uncertainty of the tariff situation will keep traders cautious. Another announcement could be made at any time of further tariffs that could impact the market.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Continue Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures posted strong follow-through losses Tuesday sparked by active market pressure seen at the end of last week and continued Monday. The concern that additional market softness may develop before technical support redevelops may leave live cattle and feeder cattle trade vulnerable to further losses midweek. Hog futures posted active gains, but given previous losses, it is uncertain just how deep current buyer support remains. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $1.97 with a weighted average of $85.40 on 3,719 hogs. March corn closed up 5 3/4 at $4.945 and March soybean meal closed up $10.30 at $314.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 134.13 at 44,556.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures continued lower late Tuesday despite a short-lived attempt to bring some stability to the market in the early minutes of morning trade. Triple-digit losses once again put pressure on the live cattle complex with a combination of spillover pressure from active feeder cattle losses and still uncertainty about how talk of tariffs would impact overall beef exports. February futures are still holding above the $200 per cwt for the time being, but nearby contracts have fallen $6 to $9 per cwt from last week's record high levels. Traders will cautiously monitor both outside market direction and beef values in the next couple of days which could help to bring some additional buyer support back to the table. Cash cattle markets are extremely quiet Tuesday afternoon with no sign of bids or offers developing in any area of cattle country. The price shifts through the futures market are causing both sides to take a "wait and see" approach before even entertaining the idea of throwing a number out. Given the strong price support last week and the early week volatility, cash markets may become even more volatile before the end of the week. February live cattle closed $3.00 higher at $200.05, February live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $201.875, April live cattle closed $1.50 lower at $198.65 and June live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $193.225. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.26 ($330.73) and select down $2.43 ($317.41) with a movement of 105.54 loads (57.13 loads of choice, 28.96 loads of select, 7.04 loads of trim and 12.41 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Lack of activity in cash cattle markets and the inability for bids is expected to set the tone for steady markets midweek until additional direction can develop. There is expected to be increased focus on futures direction through the end of the week as well as the ability to sustain current beef values over the coming days.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures attempted to stabilize early Tuesday morning following sharp early week losses seen across the complex Monday. But any attempt to bring any support back to the market was very short-lived as the livestock market continues to remain rattled by talk of potential tariffs. The announcement that cattle imports from Mexico will resume, although the overall details are still unclear is adding further market uncertainty to the entire feeder cattle complex. Nearby feeder cattle futures have fallen $7 to $8 per cwt in the past two sessions and March contracts are now trading over $10 per cwt lower from market highs set last week. The inability to hold the recent momentum in the market may be just as or more impactful to the overall market structure as the actual price losses seen in the last couple of days. March feeders closed $2.25 lower at $268.25, April feeders closed $2.20 lower at $267.625 and May feeders closed $2.18 lower at $265.8. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for January 31: down $1.18, $279.45.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures rebounded from sharp losses seen Monday as traders seemed to slowly but cautiously back away from the panic driven selling seen in the complex earlier in the week. Spot February futures were the least volatile market Tuesday with prices gaining 75 cents per cwt. But the rest of the complex posted strong triple digit gains through the end of the session. April futures led the market higher with a $3.40 per cwt gain, closing at $89/75 per cwt. This is still well below the $91.92 high last week, but the ability to bounce back from Monday's losses has given new life to the lean hog complex during early February. February lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $85.075, April lean hogs closed $3.40 higher at $89.75 and May lean hogs closed $3.03 higher at $93.75. Tuesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 6,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 340.16 loads with 302.99 loads of pork cuts and 37.17 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.95 at $94.76. The CME Lean Hog Index for February 2: up $0.31, $84.08.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Early cash hog bids are expected to be generally steady Wednesday morning. The volatility in lean hog futures prices as well as shifts in pork cutout values through the week may keep cash hogs unsettled but starting out Wednesday trade generally steady.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Further Pressure Develops in Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Firm follow-through pressure is developing in all live cattle and feeder cattle futures, despite a sense of initial market stability early Tuesday morning. The follow-through pressure is equally evident in nearby live cattle and feeder cattle futures, where Monday's losses were most noticeable in feeder cattle futures at the end of the trading day. Prices still remain well above both 40- and 100-day moving averages, but markets have pulled significantly away from all-time highs and that is creating additional market uncertainty. March corn is up 6 3/4 at $4.955 and March soybean meal is up $8.50 at $312.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.49 at 44,459.40.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures started Tuesday morning with cautious optimism that the aggressive price tumble may have run its course. But despite the stability at opening bell, active selling pressure quickly and aggressively stepped back into the market, allowing for moderate to sharp losses through most of the morning. April futures are leading the market lower with increased concern of global markets surrounding tariff talk and potential challenges that would impact beef exports. But for now, traders seem to be content with current midday losses as trade may remain sluggish through the end of the trading day. Cash cattle markets remain very quiet early Tuesday with bids and asking prices yet to be well established for the week. At this point, significant trade will likely be delayed until the last half of the week. Both sides appear to be hesitant to extend any indication of market direction given the aggressive market volatility seen over the past couple of days. February live cattle are $1.50 lower at $201.475, April live cattle are $2.50 lower at $197.65, June live cattle are $2.10 lower at $192.375. 

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.74 ($333.73) and select up $0.91 ($320.75) with a movement of 39.90 loads (22.96 loads of choice, 10.19 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.75 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have added additional price pressure as the session continued Tuesday, although the initial indication was that market stability may be established following the aggressive price tumble Monday. But lack of underlying supportive buying activity just after opening bell allowed for additional gaps to develop, allowing prices to tumble $1.80 to $2.10 per cwt at midday. Nearby feeder cattle futures have now recorded a $10 per cwt price loss since hitting all-time highs last week in January. The concern surrounding price pressure in live cattle markets and uncertainty around global trade activity in the coming months has caused traders to take a much less aggressive view to the market than was seen just one week ago. March feeders are $2.55 lower at $267.95, April feeders are $2.80 lower at $267.025 and May feeders are $2.80 lower at $265.175.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures rebounded Tuesday morning as traders retract most of Monday's losses. April futures are leading the complex higher with gains of $3 to $3.50 per cwt. Uncertainty remains about how overall trade will be impacted by all the tariff talk, but traders approached the market Tuesday in a much more calm fashion. Nearby contracts are still well below last week's highs, but the fact that lean hog futures have not continued to adjust lower similar to moves in the cattle market is helping to create a slight sense of market stability early in the week. February lean hogs are $0.78 higher at $85.1, April lean hogs are $2.95 higher at $89.3, and May lean hogs are $2.73 higher at $93.45. Hog Prices are unreported due to confidentiality Tuesday morning on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report. Pork cutouts totaled 175.54 loads with 158.35 loads of pork cuts and 17.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.42 at $93.01.