Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Complex Finds Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Wednesday's market has been less chaotic than Tuesday, as the livestock contracts are trading higher into today's noon hour. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and most of the week's trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. May corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $6.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 165.73 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading higher again today as traders have thankfully let the live cattle contracts continue to venture higher despite trade tensions being high right now. But given that the live cattle complex has traded mostly lower since the market scored a new high late in January, it's likely traders believe the market has seen enough price correction recently and doesn't need to endure any more immediate downside pressure. April live cattle are up $0.72 at $195.35, June live cattle are up $1.17 at $191.25 and August live cattle are up $1.32 at $189.80. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but there could be a chance that the board's strong tone helps feedlot managers keep prices steady this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $198 plus but are still not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.70 ($314.17) and select down $1.26 ($302.76) with a movement of 88 loads (51.22 loads of choice, 23.37 loads of select, 4.33 loads of trim and 8.76 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the feeder cattle complex was pressured earlier this week, it seems as though traders are finding comfort in Wednesday's trade, as it's helpful the live cattle contracts are trading higher. March feeders are up $0.35 at $274.20, April feeders are up $1.80 at $274.30 and May feeders are up $2.10 at $273.10. And so long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade in a positive manner, it's likely that the feeder cattle contracts will follow in their wake.

LEAN HOGS:

The pressure the lean hog complex experienced on Tuesday seems to be somewhat put behind the market now as the lean hog contracts are now also trading higher. April lean hogs are up $2.27 at $84.60, June lean hogs are up $1.40 at $94.55 and July lean hogs are up $0.80 at $96.32. But the hog complex could likely be sensitive to any trade talks that develop later this week as a strong export market is crucial for the hog sector.

The projected lean hog index for 3/4/2025 is down $0.02 at $90.20 and the actual index for 3/3/2025 is up $0.25 at $90.22. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $89.03, ranging from $85.00 to $92.50 on 3,537 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.72. Pork cutouts totaled 137.13 loads, with 121.20 loads of pork cuts and 15.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.36, $100.13.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Tariffs are on With Traders Uncertain Over the Impact

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures rebounded substantially from the lows as traders digested the beginning of the tariffs put on Canada, Mexico, and China. The market seemed to take it in stride, and now that it came to fruition, traders determined that the market had it already factored in, and prices needed to correct. It is too early to tell whether this will be a trend reversal or if it was just a day of short-covering by the funds in case there is another expected change. Cash cattle did not trade on Tuesday and likely will not trade today. The general idea is that cash will be lower again this week. Boxed beef prices increased but likely not enough to provide strong support to the market. Choice cuts gained $0.92 with select cuts up $1.61. The packers will need to see a consistent increase in prices to indicate stronger demand. Feeder cattle closed mixed, remaining uncertain over the impact of tariffs.

Hog futures penetrated more levels of technical support on Tuesday, triggering further liquidation. One would think the market is overdone to the downside but traders have not provided any indication of support. The impact of tariffs on demand remains uncertain, but continues to cast a bearish cloud over the market. Cash was higher with the National Daily Direct Afternoon report up $0.80 from Monday. This was offset by cutouts declining $2.20. China indicated pork is on the list of retaliatory tariffs. Mexico is likely to do the same. Slowing of export demand will keep the packers on the defensive as they do not want to process more pork than demand will absorb. The packers should remain aggressive today as they purchase hogs to maintain the slaughter pace.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle may correct further as the market may have been overdone to the downside.	1)	The rebound from the lows today did not change the trend higher. Traders were short covering and not establishing new positions.
2)	Even if cash cattle trade lower this week, futures may need to increase to get in line with cash.	2)	Cash cattle are projected to trade lower this week. The packers continue to maintain a slower slaughter pace.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and may see renewed buying as the market needs to adjust to the known fundamentals, not the perception of what tariffs will do.	3)	Hog futures have not held support as liquidation over demand uncertainty may continue.
4)		4)	China indicated they were retaliating with tariffs of their own and pork is on the list. China has been a large importer of U.S. pork.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Tariffs, Potential Retaliatory Action Affected Lean Hog Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Throughout Tuesday's trade, the market's buzz and internal chaos was focused on the tariffs placed against China, Mexico and Canada and how these countries could potentially choose to react in a retaliatory manner. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but Southern asking prices are noted at $198 plus. May corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 670.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

While the rest of the commodity sector panicked and traded mostly lower, the live cattle complex seemed to catch somewhat of a break as its contracts weren't gravely affected by the tariffs effective today. But after having traded mostly lower since the market's high score late in January, traders likely believe the market has endured enough of a correction and didn't need to panic and trade lower yet again today. And there is a plausible case to be made in wondering how packers will manage the added expense of these tariffs on Mexica and Canadia beef/cattle. Depending on how trade dynamics go moving forward, if the tariffs continue to grow greater (currently at 25% right now), then there's an argument to be made that at some point, simply buying more domestic product could be easier than paying the purchase price, handing freight and added tariff expenses. But as always, time will tell. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but asking prices are noted in the South at $198 plus. April live cattle closed $2.40 higher at $194.65, June live cattle closed $1.97 higher at $190.07 and August live cattle closed $1.30 higher at $188.47. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.92 ($314.85) and select up $1.61 ($304.02) with a movement of 121 loads (83.18 loads of choice, 17.32 loads of select, 5.78 loads of trim and 14.29 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that packers haven't increased chain speeds yet, it's likely that prices this week will be steady to somewhat lower again.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was trading fully lower at Tuesday's noon hour, but upon seeing the zen nature of the live cattle complex, it too was able to regain focus and close mostly higher by Tuesday's end. March feeders closed $0.17 lower at $273.85, April feeders closed $0.45 higher at $272.50 and May feeders closed $0.80 higher at $271.00. More than anything, the feeder cattle complex was able to look to the live cattle complex for strength and thankfully in today's market, the live cattle complex was able to offer that stability. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers under 500 pounds sold $5.00 to $15.00 lower, but steers over 500 pounds traded steady to $8.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 500 pounds sold steady to $11.00 lower, and heifers over 500 pounds traded steady to $12.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 64%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/3/2025: up $1.83, $278.75.

LEAN HOGS:

It was another grim day, however, for the lean hog complex as the market closed anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower. The hog complex is especially worried about its availability to market pork products into Mexico and China if retaliatory actions are taken on their behalf. And until these trade dynamics settle, the hog sector will likely remain volatile regardless of what domestic demand does or doesn't do. April lean hogs closed $1.35 lower at $82.35, June lean hogs closed $2.20 lower at $93.15 and July lean hogs closed $1.77 lower at $95.52. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.80 with a weighted average price of $89.21 on 4,748 head. Pork cutouts total 316.59 loads, with 265.67 loads of pork cuts and 50.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.02, $97.77. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 36,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/28/2025: up $0.50, $89.94.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though prices were slightly higher today, Wednesday's market could likely see similar interest.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Cautious as Trade Tariffs Go Into Effect

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the live cattle contracts are trading higher while both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts are trading lower. Today's focus seems to be on the new tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. May corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 587.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is weathering today's chaos amid 25% tariffs being imposed on Mexico and Canada rather well. Is it because traders believe imported beef/cattle from the two countries will carry enough of a price penalty that packers could need more domestic supply? One can only speculate at this point. However, seeing the live cattle complex trade well following the pressure endured on Friday is relieving. April live cattle are up $1.30 at $193.55, June live cattle are up $0.80 at $188.90 and August live cattle are up $0.42 at $187.60. Still no developments have surfaced in the cash cattle market and trade won't likely get underway until Thursday or Friday. No bids or asking prices have been posted yet.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.01 ($313.92) and select up $0.74 ($303.15) with a movement of 70 loads (47.36 loads of choice, 8.13 loads of select, 5.02 loads of trim and 9.71 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle contracts seem somewhat unphased through the chaotic trade details of today, the feeder cattle contracts are now trading lower. March feeders are down $2.15 at $271.87, April feeders are down $1.57 at $270.47 and May feeders are down $1.15 at $269.95. And though buyer demand is strong in the countryside, this week's pressure is coming from technical factors, which seem to be the most relevant factors on traders' minds currently.

LEAN HOGS:

As fully expected, the lean hog complex is trading yet again substantially lower as traders attempt to grasp what retaliatory actions are going to come from Mexico specifically following this morning's 25% tariff that was invoked on Mexico and Canada. And until the trade chatter simmers, it's unlikely that much else will matter to market participants as this is the biggest line item for today, and potentially this week. April lean hogs are down $1.82 at $81.87, June lean hogs are down $2.50 at $92.85 and July lean hogs are down $2.05 at $95.25.

The projected lean hog index for 3/3/2025 is up $0.28 at $90.22, and the actual index for 2/28/2025 is up $0.50 at $89.94. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 1,688 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $90.23. Pork cutouts total 162.78 loads, with 128.24 loads of pork cuts and 34.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.88, $98.91.