Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Day For The Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed slightly lower -- but the cash cattle market rallied $7.00 to $10.00 higher. Meanwhile the lean hog complex was also able to find some mild support ahead of the weekend, which helped its contracts close higher too. May corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.03 points

From Friday-to-Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $3.78, June live cattle up $3.43; March feeder cattle up $4.50, April feeder cattle up $3.78; April lean hogs down $0.50, June lean hogs up $1.18; May corn up $0.06, July corn up $0.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts may have closed lower as traders gently pulled back the reins on the market's wild rally this past week, but don't think for a second that Friday's market was a bust. For starters, even though futures traders were more timid throughout Friday's trade, the rally the live cattle contracts fronted this week was truly incredible as traders had to wait to see until Friday what the cash cattle market was going to do. And low and behold, the cash cattle market proved to be as bullish as trades believed it would be as prices traded anywhere from $7.00 to $10.00 higher. And depending on where the week's weighted averages land, it's very likely that new all-time highs were scored in both regions again this week. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $210, which is $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $335, which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 100,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 20,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 560,000 head -- 24,000 head less than a week ago and 32,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.61 ($324.45) and select up $0.26 ($309.62) with a movement of 124 loads (82.69 loads of choice, 9.38 loads of select, 8.77 loads of trim and 22.71 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before one can say what next week's trend is going to be, we need to see exactly how many cattle sold this past week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex may have ventured lower throughout Friday's trade, but that was solely a technical decision as the market remained well supported on multiple fronts. Between the 18% decline in placements noted on this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, to the $7.00 to $10.00 rally in the cash cattle market, the feeder cattle complex saw ample fundamental support which should again encourage steady if not higher trade again next week. March feeders closed $1.87 lower at $286.47, April feeders closed $3.47 lower at $284.97 and May feeders closed $4.00 lower at $285.10. And it would be remiss of me to neglect to mention how strong the buyer demand in the countryside has been this past week. More than anything, I believe buyers are soberly aware of the fact that turn-out season will be quickly approaching and it's likely feeder cattle prices will continue to get higher and higher through that time. At the Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction, compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers sold $2.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 73%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/20/2025: up $1.84, $287.78.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to close mildly higher as the market was pleased to see some technical support come to fruition and was also supported by the day's higher cutout price. April lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $86.12, June lean hogs closed $1.22 higher at $97.47, and July lean hogs closed $1.17 higher at $98.72. The market will again likely face resistance pressure next week at $88.00; which was a problematic threshold for the market this week. But if consumer demand is stronger, then there's a chance traders could elect to take on the technical pressure.

Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.99 with a weighted average price of $88.40 on 4,224 head. Pork cutout totaled 337.35 loads with 307.77 loads of pork cuts and 29.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.00, $96.86. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected 158,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 3/19/2025: down $0.21, $89.20.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers are rarely aggressive in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Fed Cash Cattle Prices Turn $3 to $7 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though traders are cautiously handling the cattle contracts Friday ahead of the weekend and the monthly Cattle on Feed report -- there's much to celebrate as fed cash cattle prices are trading anywhere from $3 to $7 higher. So far, Southern live cattle are trading at mostly $210, which is $7 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle are trading at $212 to $214, which is $3 to $5 higher than last week's weighted average. May corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 61.42 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After an incredible week of near non-stop upward momentum, the live cattle complex seems to be holding its breath or pausing its nearly unfathomable rally as the market is only hours away from the weekend and is patiently waiting to see what the Cattle on Feed (COF) Report yields. Regardless of what the COF report shows, one could argue that the rally in this week's fed cash cattle market will overpower whatever the COF report details. So far this week, the fed cash cattle market's movement has been thin, but prices have been hot. So far, Southern live cattle are trading at mostly $210, which is $7 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle are trading at $212 to $214, which is $3 to $5 higher than last week's weighted average. It's rather incredible that on a week when throughput has been reduced because of weather conditions, that packers are still willing to advance the cash market $3 to $7 higher to ensure they have enough supply moving forward. Well done feedlot managers, well done!

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.15 ($325.91) and select up $0.28 ($209.64) with a movement of 86 loads (59.25 loads of choice, 5.41 loads of select, 6.10 loads of trim and 15.02 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though fed cash cattle prices are trading higher, traders are reluctant to advance the feeder cattle complex without the support of the live cattle contracts. March feeders are down $0.10 at $288.25, April feeders are down $1.25 at $287.20 and May feeders are down $1.47 at $287.62. Friday's weaker technical performance isn't due to any fundamental rhyme or reason, but rather because traders are questioning how much higher the market can actually trade, and as they wait to see what this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report unveils.

LEAN HOGS:

After a challenging week, the lean hog complex has finally found some support as its contracts are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. April lean hogs are up $1.22 at $86.77, June lean hogs are up $2.10 at $98.32 and July lean hogs are up $1.90 at $99.47. It is helpful that again Friday, pork cutout values are higher, which is stemming from a healthy blend of higher prices across nearly all the cuts.

The projected lean hog index for 3/20/2025 is down $0.32 at $88.88, and the actual index for 3/19/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.20. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.14 with a weighted average price of $88.26, ranging from $85.00 to $90.00 on 3,849 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.47. Pork cutouts total 236.90 loads with 218.82 loads of pork cuts and 18.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.48, $98.34.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Activity, Cattle on Feed Report Will Be The Focus

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle will trade Friday and the expectation has grown for higher cash to develop. One uncertainty is the weather factor as some plants have indicated they will not be operating due to the snow and high winds. This may push more cattle slaughter to Saturday and may impact the volume of cattle purchased for the week. However, packers are expected to pay more for cattle as they did not buy many for deferred delivery last week. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $1.55 and select up $0.68 The Cattle on Feed report will be released after the close and show lower numbers than a year ago. The estimates are for on-feed as of March 1 at 98.2% of a year ago with a range of 97.0% to 99.0%; placements in February at 85.6% with a range of 79.1% to 90.5%; cattle marketed in February at 91.8% with a range of 91.0% to 93.2%.

Hog futures struggled on Thursday as the demand factor came into focus again due to the low weekly export sales report. Sales of 18,100 metric tons (mt) were a marketing year low. Not only is international demand concerning, but domestic demand is also a concern. Pork cutouts were higher on Thursday, gaining $0.67, but the variability of cutouts indicates that demand is mixed and has not benefited from increased demand due to high beef prices. Hog slaughter has been lower this week due to the weather impacting plant operations. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 150,000 head. Cash was lower on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report with a decline of $1.63.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report is expected to be bullish with lower on-feed, placement, and marketing numbers than a year ago.	1)	It is uncertain how aggressive packers will be today. The market may have more premium in April futures than what is needed. This could result in some selling pressure.
2)	Traders seem confident that cash cattle will trade higher Friday, providing further support to the market despite what the Cattle on Feed report will show.	2)	Cattle futures have moved up so far and fast that traders may decide to sell once the Cattle on Feed numbers are known. A buy the rumor, sell the fact action.
3)	Hog slaughter has been lower due to the weather, keeping some plants from operating -- and not from slower demand. Slaughter has held well and is higher than a year ago despite higher hog weights indicating steady demand.	3)	Hog futures will need to find support or further liquidation could take place.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again closed mixed as the cattle contracts grew stronger ahead of the day's close, but the lean hog contracts still faced some pressure. Still no cash cattle trade has developed as feedlot managers hold out in hopes of higher prices. May corn is up 7 cents per bushel, and May soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11.31 points.

Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 10,200 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were down 29% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,000 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2025 -- a marketing-year low -- were down 11% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and South Korea (2,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

At first, traders were leery to be overly supportive of the live cattle complex ahead of seeing what the cash cattle market was going to accomplish this week. But bullish optimism shined through on Thursday afternoon and helped drive the contracts higher ahead of the close. April live cattle closed $1.65 higher at $208.47, June live cattle closed $2.17 higher at $205.02 and August live cattle closed $1.75 higher at $201.82. The day's lighter slaughter largely stems from the fact that a regional packer in eastern Nebraska is not slaughtering Thursday or Friday amid the blowing snow and hurricane-strength winds that are affecting the region. That will undoubtedly affect the week's total slaughter count. But what's yet to be know is whether it will deter packers from being as aggressive in this week's market as they originally planned to be. Time will tell. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are unavailable because of packer submission issues.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though throughput is going to be reduced this week because of weather disruptions, it's likely that feedlot managers will elect to roll their showlists over to the next week as opposed to trade cattle for cheaper money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Day in and day out, the feeder cattle complex continues to climb to new highs, as the market is robustly supported. From the higher close of the futures complex to the continued buyer demand being seen in the countryside, the feeder cattle market has all the support it could ever hope for. And if fed cash cattle prices do indeed trade higher on Friday, then the market really will have a near-perfect week, as things have panned out exactly as wished for. The only slight disruption that could come is if there's a surprise in Friday's March 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report. But pre-report estimates indicate that placements should be lower. March feeders closed $1.52 higher at $288.35, April feeders closed $1.72 higher at $288.45 and May feeders closed $1.60 higher at $289.10. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 600 to 749 pounds traded $7 to $10 higher with instances up to $15 higher, and steers weighing 750 to 949 pounds traded anywhere from steady to $7 higher. Even though the region is still dry, buyers are determined to get cattle bought before turn-out season arrives and green grass drives the prices of feeders even higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 86%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/19/2025: up $1.29, $285.94.

LEAN HOGS:

To no one's surprise, the lean hog complex did indeed close lower, as traders were disgruntled with the morning's export sales report. And although pork cutout values rounded out the day higher, traders still aren't comfortable, believing that the trend in pork demand is indeed higher now until they see a couple more days of higher prices. But if beef prices continue to inch higher and higher, it's likely that pork will see more consumer interest, as some will elect to find a cheaper protein. April lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $85.55, June lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $96.25 and July lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $97.55. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.63 with a weighted average price of $89.39 on 4,469 head. Pork cutouts total 258.31 loads with 230.31 loads of pork cuts and 28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.67, $95.86. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 471,000 head -- 18,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/18/2025: up $0.09, $89.41.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have largely bought up all the cash supply they need this week.