Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Should Find Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded $3.00 higher in both categories as packers needed to step up and purchase cattle to maintain even a slow slaughter pace. Their margins continue to erode, but demand needs to be satisfied. Boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice up $1.90 and select down $0.87. Packers have had difficulty surrounding themselves with sufficient cattle to avoid having to pay more, but feedlots hold the upper hand. If feedlots do not get what they want, they will hold cattle over to the next week. Cattle are not backed up in the country, and feed is not expensive. Feeder cattle found solid support Friday as the tariffs on Brazilian beef should be supportive to the market. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders as net sellers of 1,349 live cattle futures contracts, reducing their net-long position to 124,946 contracts. They were net sellers of 2,374 feeder cattle contracts, reducing their net-long position to 34,040.

Hog futures had sufficient buying interest to push contracts back into the sideways trading range Friday. This may provide further support as traders may be confident adding to their long positions. Unfortunately, the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.76, continuing to erode the weighted average price. However, pork cutouts did well, gaining $2.94. The fund traders maintain a net-long position, but that has been slowly eroding as demand remains erratic, unable to find the consistent support that had been anticipated. Higher beef prices were expected to improve pork demand as more consumers turned to lower-priced pork. That has not been the case, as pork demand has not been consistent. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds as net sellers of 2,426 futures contracts, reducing their net-long position to 104,753.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle trading $3.00 higher last week should continue to provide support to the market. Beef demand remains strong.	1)	Cattle futures remain overbought as the recent weakness was insufficient to correct that condition. Further liquidation could take place.
2)	The August live cattle contract holds a discount to cash that will need to narrow as it converges to cash. This was clear Friday as it jumped significantly relative to other contracts.	2)	Packer margins continue to erode and reduced slaughter is not providing consistent support to boxed beef prices.
3)	Hog futures moved back into the sideways trading range after breaking below it earlier last week. Traders bought the break in anticipation of stronger prices.	3)	Hog futures moved back into the trading range but may have difficulty moving above the top end of the trading range under the current fundamentals.
4)	Packers may step in to buy aggressively to begin the week in response to the lower cash price Friday. This gives them a lower base to start with.	4)	Packers may not be aggressive Monday as they wait to see the level of weekend pork demand.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Regained Focus, Pushed the Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a strong day for the livestock complex as all of the contracts closed higher and the fed cash cattle market saw prices trade mostly $3.00 higher as well. Heading into next week's market, it will be vital to note exactly how many cattle were bought this week as that will dictate how aggressive packers will likely be in the weeks ahead. Pork cutouts are up $2.94 at $116.94, September corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 542.40 points and NASDAQ is down 472.32 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle up $3.65, October live cattle up $0.53; August feeder cattle up $3.20, September feeder cattle up $1.73; August lean hogs down $1.35, October lean hogs down $0.55; September corn down $0.10, December corn down $0.08.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thankfully, even though the market ran into some turbulence on Thursday, traders were able to refix their gaze and gain focus on the market's fundamentals and trade the contracts higher through Friday's close. August live cattle closed $2.35 higher at $230.12, October live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $223.67 and December live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $224.42. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $235 to $236, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $383 -- both of which are roughly $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Packers didn't want to pay more for cattle again this week in the cash market, but nor can they afford to be any more short bought than they already are.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 93,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 23,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 1,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 535,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 57,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.90 ($363.22) and select down $0.87 ($340.50) with a movement of 72 loads (38.25 loads of choice, 15.76 loads of select, 3.89 loads of trim and 14.34 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. The trend is likely to remain steady/somewhat higher in the fed cash cattle market until packers get enough supply built up around them.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had a splendid day as the contracts closed higher following Thursday's erratic state amid the announcement that a 50% tariff could go into effect in a week against Brazilian beef and cattle imports. Thankfully, traders found solace in the continued upward trend of fed cash cattle prices and feeder cattle sales.

August feeders closed $3.20 higher at $334.57, September feeders closed $2.37 higher at $333.92 and October feeders closed $1.67 higher at $331.85. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steer and heifers traded $8.00 to $15.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves traded $7.00 to $14.00 higher. Slaughter cows traded steady to $2.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 64%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/31/2025: up $0.88, $335.89.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day higher as traders continued to build their technical position based on the foundation they've been able to secure this week. It hasn't been because of bountiful fundamental support as pork cutout values have danced higher and lower this week, and cash prices were volatile too. Rather, traders found a price point at which they're comfortable trading and moved higher as such.

August lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $107.35, October lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $90.05 and December lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $82.35. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.76 with a weighted average price of $108.91 on 1,560 head. Pork cutouts totaled 335.45 loads with 301.28 loads of pork cuts and 34.17 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.94, $116.94.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head -- 33,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 22,000 head. The CME lean hog index 7/30/2025: down $0.14, $110.37.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely dive aggressively into the cash hog market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Regain Their Focus

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex has regained its footing following Thursday's disgruntled tailspin, which sent the contracts plummeting lower. But thankfully, by the fed cash cattle market's grace, and continued support of seeing higher sales, traders have regained their focus. A few deals have been noted in the South this morning, but no new dressed cattle sales have been reported. September corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 450.43 points and the NASDAQ is down 362.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Thursday's technical turbulence, the live cattle complex is back to trading higher as traders are pleased to see the fed cash cattle market trading higher. A light trade has been reported in Kansas at $236, which is $1.00 higher than Thursday's trade and $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few deals have also been reported in Texas at $235, which is fully steady with Thursday's trade. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $236 plus and in the North at $384 plus. More trade will likely develop throughout the afternoon, and once again, feedlot managers have been rewarded for their patient willingness to trade cattle later in the week as packers have upped their bids. August live cattle are up $2.67 at $230.32, October live cattle are up $0.77 at $223.92 and December live cattle are up $0.70 at $224.70.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $2.83 ($364.15) and select down $0.77 ($340.60) with a movement of 43 loads (25.12 loads of choice, 6.28 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.59 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher as traders have regained their focus from sheer panic and chaos, to one that's clearer and more stable, and is fixated on the current thriving performance of the cattle complex. August feeders are up $2.77 at $334.15, September feeders are up $2.12 at $333.67 and October feeders are up $1.55 at $331.72. Even though the futures complex dived lower Thursday afternoon, that hasn't affected demand in the countryside whatsoever.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as traders are pleased with the uptick in pork demand late this week and are also grateful for the stability found throughout the futures complex, as traders have seemed to establish a new bottom in the market for at least this current move. August lean hogs are up $0.12 at $107.25, October lean hogs are up $0.40 at $89.97 and December lean hogs are up $0.35 at $82.07. Given that packers were so aggressive in the market earlier this week, it's unlikely that they'll do much more buying this afternoon, as their needs are fulfilled in the cash sector.

The projected lean hog index for 7/31/2025 is down $0.11 at $110.26, and the actual index for 7/30/2025 is down $0.14 at $110.37. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.72 with a weighted average price of $109.10, ranging from $98.00 to $114.50 on 1,435 head and a five-day rolling average of $112.63. Pork cutouts total 212.55 loads with 190.79 loads of pork cuts and 21.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.44, $117.44.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Are Expected to Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday was a day of reckoning for cattle futures. It indicates that a market reaching such lofty levels has increased vulnerability to news that creates uncertainty. The announcement of a tariff on Brazilian beef created confusion over what that could mean for beef prices. Added to that was an overbought market that was ripe for a correction. Traders had stops below the market to limit downside risk. The weakness of futures was sufficient to trigger those stops, causing the market to pancake lower as other layers of stops were triggered. Limited cash cattle trading activity was noted in the North on Thursday at $3.00 higher than last week. In reality, higher cash and the potential of lower Brazilian beef imports should be supportive to the market. The weakness in futures might be overdone. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $0.67 and select up $0.46.

Hog futures found further buying interest from traders Thursday. This moved futures back to the bottom end of the recent trading range. Further strength Friday could trigger increased buying interest. Cash and cutout prices did not support the market, but the lack of follow-through selling from weakness earlier this week provided the confidence traders needed to buy the break. Some support stemmed from a solid weekly export sales report with pork sales totaling 39,500 metric tons (mt). Packers were less aggressive as most of their purchasing is finished for the week. The National Daily Direct Afternoon hog report showed cash down $1.67. Pork cutouts fell $2.00.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The heavy selling in cattle futures seems to be overdone and not supported by market fundamentals.	1)	Cattle futures could see further liquidation as the overbought market corrects.
2)	Light cash cattle trading activity took place Thursday at $3.00 higher. This points to higher cash for the week, which should further support the market.	2)	Weekly beef export sales were low, indicating high beef prices are impacting international beef demand.
3)	Hog futures continued the bounce on Thursday, moving to the bottom of the recent trading range. Traders are adding to their long positions.	3)	Hog futures will need to see further strength to push through technical resistance and back into the trading range.
4)	Hog futures did not succumb to the selling pressure in cattle. Many times, there can be spillover pressure in livestock futures.	4)	Cash hogs continue to flounder. There are sufficient hogs available to packers, leaving them with little need to be aggressive buyers.