Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are all trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour as traders have shaken off their concerns regarding overly supporting the cattle contracts and are back to advancing the marketplace. Asking prices in the South are noted at $238 to $240. September corn is down 5 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 42.39 points and the NASDAQ is down 77.23 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is off to a sporty rally this morning as traders seem to be more confident in the market's fundamental footing than they were on Monday. August live cattle are up $3.92 at $234.82, October live cattle are up $3.62 at $227.70 and December live cattle are up $3.57 at $228.57. There are a few asking prices now noted in the South at $238 to $240, but the North continues to remain quiet. It's unlikely that any cash cattle trade will develop until Thursday or Friday. The market still has some upward room to trade as the resistance plane sits at $230.

Boxed beef prices are unavailable because of packer submission issues.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is off to an aggressive rally for the day as all of the contracts are trading $5.00 higher. August feeders are up $5.32 at $340.72, September feeders are up $5.30 at $339.75 and October feeders are up $5.35 at $337.70. More than anything, it seems as though traders have shaken the jitters they possessed on Monday and are now back to believing in the market's robust fundamental position. Feeder cattle demand in the countryside hasn't wavered whatsoever, and doesn't seem to care what the board is doing, as buyers know that supplies are thin and that that isn't going to change any time soon

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to trade higher into Tuesday's noon hour as traders have found enough support in the marketplace to blow past the market's previous resistance at $91.00. August lean hogs are up $0.70 at $108.87, October lean hogs are up $1.87 at $92.77 and December lean hogs are up $1.27 at $84.72. It's difficult to say where traders are getting this extra momentum from, as we can't see what pork demand is doing because of packers' failure to submit data this morning, but the slight improvement in the cash market is surely helping.

The projected lean hog index for 8/2/2025 is down $0.43 at $109.56, and the actual index for 8/1/2025 is down $0.27 at $109.99. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $110.98, ranging from $105.00 to $113.50 on 2,515 head and a five-day rolling average of $112.95. Pork cutout values are unavailable because of packer submission issues.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Should See Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures may try to regain their recent losses as there has not been a change in fundamentals. It has been anticipated by many that a peak would have been reached numerous times; but there seems to be no end in sight. Cattle supplies remain tight, feedlots are confident to hold for higher prices, and consumer demand remains strong. Boxed beef prices on Monday were higher, with choice up $1.10 and select up $1.09. Packers have had two weeks of slaughter running below 550,000 head, which may support boxed beef prices. However, higher prices at the retail level could reduce demand as the calendar moves closer to the Labor Day weekend. Retailers may be cautious about the level of beef they need to have available, as some consumers may turn to other cuts of meat. Of course, that has been said repeatedly in the past, but it has not slowed the market.

Hog futures moved into and through the consolidation range they had been in for a brief period as prices rebounded Monday from the drop of last week. The December and later contracts regained the losses and closed above technical resistance. This may trigger further aggressive buying as traders become confident higher prices will unfold. Packers were not aggressive in the cash market Monday as the limited volume of hogs traded was insufficient for packers to confidently post price changes. Pork cutouts were up $0.85 at $117.79. Packers continue to reduce slaughter to improve their margins; but so far, it has not resulted in much change. Cash is expected to be higher Tuesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures continue to hold a discount to cash and will need to reduce that discount if cash remains higher.	1)	Cattle futures remain overbought and may correct further if the market does not find greater support soon.
2)	Feedlots remain confident they can get higher prices again this week. Tighter supplies and continued strong beef demand leave them confident packers will need to pay more.	2)	Heavier-weight cattle require fewer head to be purchased to maintain beef tonnage. Even though slaughter has been lower the past two weeks, the volume of beef has likely been maintained.
3)	Hog futures moved back into the trading range with December and later contracts closing above technical resistance.	3)	Hog futures will need to receive increased support from both the cash market and cutouts for prices to trend higher.
4)	Packers are expected to be aggressive Tuesday as they purchased only a few hogs Monday and will need to step up their efforts.	4)	Pork demand seasonally decreases into the fall, with futures anticipating a substantial price decline. The October and December contracts are holding a large discount to August.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

It ended up being a positive day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher Monday. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado, but somewhat lower in Texas. September corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $6.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 585.06 points and NASDAQ is up 403.45 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded back and forth throughout Monday, appearing unsure about its direction as traders weigh the pros and cons of trading the market higher or lower. But to cattlemens' favor, the live cattle complex closed higher by Monday's end -- although the gains were minimal. August live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $230.90, October live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $224.10, and December live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $225.00. More than anything, traders seemed willing to allow the contracts to chop sideways throughout the day but weren't willing to extend themselves and welcome any more vulnerability. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado, but somewhat lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 101,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $383, which is $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $235 to $236, which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 69,534 head. Of which 86% (59,569 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery while the remaining 14% (9,965 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.10 ($364.32) and select up $1.09 ($341.59) with a movement of 109 loads (55.69 loads of choice, 24.87 loads of select, 17.93 loads of trim and 10.99 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers were able to get a sizeable volume of cattle committed to nearby delivery, which could mean cash prices are going to hold steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Like the live cattle complex, feeder cattle contracts traded back and forth throughout Monday, unsure about which way the market should truly lean. But thankfully, ahead of Monday's close, the market did indeed muster up enough support to close higher with the deferred months again seeing the biggest day-over-day gains. August feeder cattle closed $0.82 higher at $335.40, September feeders closed $0.52 higher at $334.45, and October feeders closed $0.55 higher at $332.40. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers under 500 pounds were selling steady to $6.00 lower but feeders over 500 pounds were selling $4.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers were trading anywhere from $4.00 lower to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 75%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 8/1/2025: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

With the help of slightly better pork demand and continued interest from traders, the lean hog complex was able to round out Monday higher. It will be interesting to see what traders do with the market Tuesday as resistance pressures are looming. But if pork demand remains strong there's a chance traders could elect to move the market past the resistance pressure around $91.00 in the spot October contract. August lean hogs closed $0.82 higher at $108.17, October lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $90.90, and December lean hogs closed $1.10 higher at $83.45. Hog prices remained unavailable throughout the day because of confidentiality on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, but we were able to see at least that only 320 head traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $112.61. Pork cutouts totaled 243.93 loads with 218.56 loads of pork cuts and 25.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.85, $117.79. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 425,000 head -- 17,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 7/31/2025: down $0.11, $110.26.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork demand improving, there's a chance packers could be more aggressive.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Hesitant, Hogs Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle sector isn't fully confident that it possesses enough support to trade higher, but the lean hog contracts are taking full advantage of the day and trading higher thanks to the continued support of strong pork demand. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado, but somewhat lower in Texas. September corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 455.56 points and the NASDAQ is up 364.24 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mixed as traders continue to believe in and see the robust support of the cattle market's fundamental position, but at the same time, traders also are aware of the elevated position of the futures complex and don't want to welcome any more unwanted volatility into the marketplace. August live cattle are down $0.12 at $230.05, October live cattle are down $0.55 at $223.15 and December live cattle are down $0.62 at $223.80.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $383, which is $3.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $235 to $236, which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.15 ($363.37) and select down $0.27 ($340.23) with a movement of 60 loads (29.74 loads of choice, 13.98 loads of select, 9.81 loads of trim and 6.27 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Originally, the feeder cattle complex was trading higher, but as the day has progressed, traders are seeming less confident, which has consequently left the feeder cattle complex trading lower. August feeders are down $1.75 at $332.82, September feeders are down $2.07 at $331.85 and October feeders are down $1.90 at $329.95. The spot September contract is less than $10.00 away from its resistance threshold, which is slightly limiting to traders, as they aren't certain whether they possess enough support to challenge that threshold.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to grind higher and higher as traders are pleased with the continued note of stronger pork demand and are appearing willing to challenge the market's nearby resistance threshold at $91.00 in the spot October contract. August lean hogs are up $0.62 at $107.97, October lean hogs are up $0.62 at $90.67 and December lean hogs are up $0.97 at $83.32. It will remain imperative that demand is undoubtedly supportive if traders are to be able to continue this rally, because without fundamental support, the market won't likely be able to trade much higher.

The projected lean hog index for 8/1/2025 is down $0.27 at $109.99, and the actual index for 7/31/2025 is down $0.11 at $110.26. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality; however, we can see that only 150 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $112.90. Pork cutouts total 124.56 loads with 112.15 loads of pork cuts and 12.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.19, $119.13.