Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Gap Higher on the Open

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Light cash cattle trade was the order of the day and the week. The cattle that were traded were mixed with Northern dressed cattle $3.00 to $4.00 higher. Southern live cattle traded $2.00 lower. With this being a holiday-shortened week, trading activity is expected to be light with packers not needing to purchase many cattle. The Cattle on Feed report was bullish as the on-feed numbers were slightly below expectations at 97.9%. Placements were the biggest surprise at 88.9% versus the average estimates of 92.4%. Marketings were 88.2% versus the estimate of 88.4%. Placements were the lowest for this report since the Cattle on Feed series began in 1996. This is the third consecutive report where placements have been at least 10% lower. The smaller herd, which has resulted in tighter numbers and the closure of the Mexican border, remains the primary driver of the market. On-feed numbers remain higher due to packers running at a slower-than-normal slaughter pace. Although the report is bullish, it may be factored into the market and could result in a subdued opening. It will be interesting to see what will develop technically. If futures gap higher on the open, it will result in a bullish island bottom formation.

It is a shorter trading week, which could reduce trading volume. However, a Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be released on Tuesday. This could result in positioning ahead of the report as traders focus on what the report could show. Recent reports have shown little to provide much volatility, with actual numbers coming in close to estimates. This may result in choppy trading ahead of the report. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report on Friday showed cash down $1.20 as packers had most of their needs purchased. They are not expected to be active buyers this week due to limited slaughter. Pork cutouts were the bright spot with a gain of $2.33.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Placements were more than 10% below a year ago and below the average trade estimates.	1)	Cattle futures may have the Cattle on Feed report already factored in. If the chart gaps are not closed today, selling could be triggered.
2)	Cattle futures could open higher, which would leave an island bottom on the charts, providing more confidence for technical traders to push the market higher.	2)	Packers may not need to purchase many cattle this week due to the Christmas holiday. Cash could trade lower.
3)	Pork cutouts have been slowly trending higher, providing support to futures.	3)	Traders may position ahead of the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released on Tuesday. This could result in lower prices as profits may be taken.
4)	Hog weights may decrease as winter progresses, requiring more hogs to obtain the same tonnage of pork to meet demand.	4)	Packers are not expected to be aggressive this week, resulting in lower cash.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Highe

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it was a successful day for the livestock complex, as all three of the markets closed higher, and Friday's Dec. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report was bullish, too. At the time of this writing, only a handful of cattle had traded in the South at $228 in Kansas, which is $2 lower than the previous week's weighted average. March corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel, and January soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 183.04 points, and the NASDAQ is up 301.26 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $0.60, February live cattle up $1.25; January feeder cattle up $6.50, March feeder cattle up $5.33; February lean hogs down $0.03, April lean hogs down $0.40; March corn up $0.03, May corn up $0.02.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex had another successful day, closing fully higher but still not willing to rival the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average. December live cattle closed $1.97 higher at $230.40, February live cattle closed $2.40 higher at $230.80, and April live cattle closed $1.85 higher at $230. Throughout the day, there were bids offered on the table in both regions, but only a handful of cattle traded in Kansas at $228, which is $2 lower than the previous week's weighted average. On Thursday, some light cash cattle trade was noted in Nebraska at $358, which is $4 higher than last week's weighted average. There's a chance that some light trade could still develop later Friday afternoon, as packers could have been waiting until after the Cattle on Feed report was shared to bid. But at the same time, there's a chance that packers don't need many more cattle this week, as they did buy a large volume last week at 103,000 head.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 7,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 587,000 head -- 9,000 head less than a week ago and 28,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.35 ($361.63) and select up $2.05 ($346.02) with a movement of 98 loads (61.26 loads of choice, 10.74 loads of select, 14.14 loads of trim and 12 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With next week being a holiday-shortened week, it's unlikely that packers will bid aggressively in the market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was both active and aggressive throughout the day, as traders rallied the contracts anywhere from $4 to $5 higher through the day's close. January feeder cattle closed $5.32 higher at $345.60, March feeders closed $4.80 higher at $339.40 and April feeders closed $4.42 higher at $337.60. The monthly Cattle on Feed report was also a bullish factor for the market on Friday, as placements were 11% lower than a year ago. The CME feeder cattle index 12/18/2025: up $0.26, $350.05. 

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also successfully rounded out the day higher, as traders no longer felt as though they were up against immediate resistance pressure. February lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $84.50, April lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $89.12, and June lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $101.70. It's most likely that traders won't pressure the market's resistance at $90 until after the holiday season, or unless some the market's fundamentals improve greatly. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.20 with a weighted average price of $67.45. Pork cutouts totaled 328.09 loads with 283.44 loads of pork cuts and 44.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.33, $99.76. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 257,000 head. The CME lean hog index 12/17/2025: up $0.01, $83.88.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that next week is a holiday-shortened week, it's most likely that packers won't be very active in the cash hog market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading in a fruitful manner Friday morning as all three markets are higher. This afternoon will be fairly busy, as we still need to trade cattle in the South and the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released. March corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and January soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 311.00 points and NASDAQ is up 275.03 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Things are heating up in the cattle complex as the live cattle contracts are again pressing up against the market's 100-day moving average. Traders are seeming to hold their breath, patiently waiting to see what's going to develop in the Southern Plains as still no cattle have traded in that region. Bids are on the table in Kansas at $227, which is far below the asking price of $232 to $233, and asking prices in the North are holding steady at $358-plus. There was a light movement of trade in Nebraska at $358 Thursday afternoon, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. February live cattle are up $3.22 at $231.60, April live cattle are up $2.72 at $230.87 and June live cattle are up $2.52 at $224.60.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.61 ($360.89) and select up $3.57 ($347.54) with a movement of 69 loads (43.73 loads of choice, 8.34 loads of select, 11.09 loads of trim and 6.32 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is pushing a dynamite rally into Friday's noon hour as contracts are trading anywhere from $5.00 $6.00 higher. The spot March contract is currently trading above its 100-day moving average, seeming to feel well supported since the live cattle contracts are higher, fed cash cattle prices are stronger this week, and hopeful this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report will be bullish too. Time will tell.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is back to trading higher as traders seemed to have regained some faith in the market but are also feeling additionally supported by the day's slight uptick in pork cutouts. February lean hogs are up $0.75 at $84.92, April lean hogs are up $0.42 at $89.37 and June lean hogs are up $0.30 at $101.90. It's unlikely the market will challenge resistance at $90.00, but a steady tone could be maintained through the day's end.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/18/2025 is down $0.15 at $83.73, and the actual index for 12/17/2025 is up $0.01, $83.88. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 670 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $70.17. Pork cutouts total 191.72 loads with 165.59 loads of pork cuts and 26.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.92, $100.35.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Will Position Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders pushed cattle futures lower, closing the chart gaps below after having been unable to find sufficient buying interest to close the upper gaps. Traders began positioning themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, which is scheduled for release this afternoon. The trade estimates are for On Feed as of Dec. 1 to be at 98.3%, with a range of 97.3% to 99.0%. Placements in November are estimated at 92.4% with a range of 84.4% to 96.0%. November marketings are estimated at 88.4% as of a year ago, with a range of 87.5% to 89.0%. When breaking down the day's that cattle are on feed, the estimates show that cattle on feed of 120- and 150-plus days will be significantly higher than a year ago. Heavier weights indicated cattle are being held longer. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday, with choice up $1.19 and select down $2.46. Some light cash trade took place in Nebraska at $4.00 higher, possibly indicating packers will remain aggressive and pay more for the cattle they need.

Hog futures rejected the weakness of Wednesday to close higher, maintaining the sideways trading range. The weakness of cash and cutouts on Thursday could put some pressure on the market today, eliminating further strength ahead of the weekend. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.06, with packers likely done purchasing for the week. Pork cutouts were down $1.11. Bellies were down $7.01, with hams $3.79 lower. Next week will be a holiday-shortened week, containing the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report on Tuesday. This should have no bearing on trading activity today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Light cash trade in Nebraska on Thursday at $4.00 higher may have set the stage for higher cash trade for the complex.	1)	Cattle futures have been unable to penetrate price resistance to close the chart gaps above the market. This may limit upside price potential in the near term.
2)	Even if the Cattle on Feed report is negative, traders may look past the report and focus on the bullish fundamentals.	2)	The Cattle on Feed report may show a significant number of cattle on feed at 120-plus days, as cattle are being held, resulting in heavier weights.
3)	The rebound of hog futures on Thursday keeps the market in a sideways trading range and possibly builds support.	3)	Packers may not be aggressive in purchasing hogs today or next week as their slaughter needs will be limited. This could result in lower cash.
4)	Some early indications are that the upcoming Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report might be supportive to the market.	4)	The upcoming Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report may limit the upside price potential as traders' position ahead of the report.