Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update = Hogs Inch Higher While Cattle Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into midday Tuesday as the cattle contracts dip slightly lower, but the lean hog contracts are trading higher ahead of this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 106.83 points and the NASDAQ is up 92.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

To no one's real surprise, following Monday's stronger trade, the live cattle complex is back to trading lower as the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average remains a difficult barrier to conquer. February live cattle are down $1.30 at $230.12, April live cattle are down $1.12 at $229.95 and June live cattle are down $0.90 at $224.05. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and the week's volume will likely be rather thin given that it's the week of Christmas and packers will run reduced kill schedules both this week and next.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $3.04 ($359.83) and select up $1.18 ($351.87) with a movement of 58 loads (38.91 loads of choice, 4.72 loads of select, 5.32 loads of trim and 8.78 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower, again seeming to follow the direction of the live cattle complex closely. January feeders are down $2.55 at $343.95, March feeders are down $2.40 at $338.10 and April feeders are down $2.05 at $336.95. But even with the market's slight downturn, the spot March contract is still currently trading above its 100-day moving average.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is rallying into Tuesday's noon hour, waiting for the highly anticipated Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be shared later this afternoon. The nearby April contract is currently trading above the market's resistance threshold at $90.00, which is a significant move this morning. February lean hogs are up $0.52 at $85.85, April lean hogs are up $0.35 at $90.22 and June lean hogs are up $0.35 at $102.72.

The projected lean hog index for 12/22/2025 is up $0.01 at $83.72 and the actual index for 12/19/2025 is down $0.02 at $83.71. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $68.02, ranging from $65.00 to $71.00 on 605 head and a five-day rolling average of $69.41. Pork cutouts total 194.65 loads with 168.50 loads of pork cuts and 26.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.42, $96.99.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Will Be Released

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The reaction of the cattle market to the bullish Cattle on Feed report was less than expected by many. Much of it has already been factored in with the overall numbers in the report, providing continued support under the market. However, the support was not sufficient to close the chart gaps above the market in most contracts. The June, August and December live cattle contracts managed to close the gaps. The other chart gaps may be closed before the end of this week. Boxed beef prices showed strength, with choice up $1.24 and select up $4.67. It is possible that boxed beef has found support and will trend higher. Packers are not expected to be aggressive this week due to Christmas and not needing many cattle due to reduced slaughter and having already purchased some ahead.

Hog futures found support despite lower cash and cutouts. Some of the strength stemmed from traders feeling confident of a stronger pork demand. Some of it could have stemmed from the positioning of traders ahead of the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released today. The report is likely to have little impact on the market, but there is always concern over the unexpected. Trading activity today will again largely be positioned ahead of the report and the holidays. All hogs and pigs are estimated to be 99.1% of a year ago. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated at 98.8%. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.29. Pork cutouts were down $1.35. Packers are expected to be more aggressive today to surround themselves with more hogs ahead of the holidays.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was bullish and should continue to provide support to the market.	1)	Packers are not expected to need many cattle this week or next week. That may result in lower cash prices and limited upside price potential.
2)	There are chart gaps above the market in many contracts. Trader support and holiday trading activity may result in closing these gaps.	2)	Lighter holiday trading activity may leave the castle market in a sideways pattern.
3)	A new contract high was made in August hog futures, with other contracts closing higher. The uptrend remains.	3)	The release of the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report may keep traders cautious, and volatility limited.
4)	Hog slaughter continues to remain strong. Demand is strong with packers easily absorbing the higher-weight hogs.	4)	The weakness in pork cutouts on Monday may indicate that much of the consumer buying for the holidays is now complete.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had a fruitful day as all three of the markets closed higher. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 227.79 points and the NASDAQ is up 121.21 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a successful day for the live cattle complex as the market not only closed higher thanks to the added support of last Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report, but the market also saw the positive uptick in boxed beef prices, which lent that much more support to the market as well. December live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $230.72, February live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $231.42 and April live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $231.07. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 11,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355 to $358, which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, but Southern live cattle traded at mostly $228, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade only totaled 34,798 head. Of that 64% (22,421 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery option, while the remaining 36% (12,377 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.24 ($362.87) and select up $4.67 ($350.69) with a movement of 68 loads (38.76 loads of choice, 11.70 loads of select, 5.40 loads of trim and 11.89 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Given that this week will be a holiday-shortened week for Christmas, it's likely that cash prices will trade steady at best.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex maintained its rallying trend through Monday's close, thankful for last week's bullish Cattle on Feed report that showed placements down 11% compared to a year ago, and optimistic about beef demand and the likelihood of a strong first quarter of 2026. January feeders closed $0.90 higher at $346.50, March feeders closed $1.10 higher at $340.50 and April feeders closed $1.40 higher at $339.00. Mostly sale barns are shut down until after the New Year holiday, when their regular sale schedules will resume. The CME feeder cattle index 12/19/2025: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day higher as traders are eager to see what Tuesday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report holds. Today's fundamentals weren't overly helpful, but given that it's the week of Christmas, that's to be expected. February lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $85.35, April lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $89.87 and June lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $102.35. More than anything, the market didn't yield enough support fundamentally for traders to break above the resistance at $90.00. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.29 with a weighted average price of $67.16 on 941 head. Pork cutouts totaled 250.38 loads with 213.25 loads of pork cuts and 37.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.35, $98.41. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 496,000 head, 17,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/18/2025: down $0.15, $83.73.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Packers weren't very aggressive in today's cash market, which likely means that they'll show more interest in the market on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are trading fully higher into midday Monday as traders are pleased with last week's Cattle on Feed report and are anxious to see tomorrow's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is up 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 260.07 points and the NASDAQ is up 129.68 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following last week's bullish Cattle on Feed report and somewhat bullish fed cash cattle trade, the live cattle contracts are currently trading higher into Monday's noon hour and are again trading alongside the market's 100-day moving average. Traders would like to conquer that threshold, but without knowing for sure how much fundamental support is going to remain in the market, given that it will be a holiday-shortened week both this week and next, traders remain cautious about breaking through that barrier right now. February live cattle are up $1.00 at $231.80, April lean hogs are up $1.55 at $231.55 and June lean hogs are up $1.65 at $225.47. It is helpful to note boxed beef prices are higher again today, showing ample consumer support heading into the Christmas holiday. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355 to $358, which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, but Southern live cattle traded at mostly $228, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.10 ($362.73) and select up $6.02 ($352.04) with a movement of 37 loads (18.92 loads of choice, 3.91 loads of select, 5.00 loads of trim and 8.99 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Today is the first chance that traders have had to fully react to Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report, and they're boldly continuing to push the feeder cattle contracts higher, incrementally moving the contracts past the 100-day moving average. January feeders are up $2.10 at $347.70, March feeders are up $2.25 at $341.65 and April feeders are up $2.52 at $340.12. Given the strong note of higher boxed beef prices this morning, and the higher trend in the live cattle contracts, it's likely that the market will be able to maintain this rally through the day's close.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts are trading slightly higher into midday Monday as traders are hopeful that more support will develop and allow the contracts to trade above the resistance at $90.00. Do note that on Tuesday (tomorrow), the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released. February lean hogs are up $0.57 at $85.07, April lean hogs are up $0.60 at $89.72 and June lean hogs are up $0.52 at $102.22.

The projected lean hog index for 12/19/2025 is down $0.02 at $83.71, and the actual index for 12/18/2025 is down $0.15 at $83.73. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 191 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $69.67. Pork cutouts total 148.63 loads with 124.40 loads of pork cuts and 24.23 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.74, $99.02.