Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Find Little Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures ran out of aggressive selling on Monday after contracts gapped lower on the open. The liquidation ran its course with short-covering and new buying interest taking place. There remains uncertainty in the market, but traders have digested some of it and are focusing more on the fundamentals. The news surrounding the potential JBS strike has been quiet. The lower cash cattle trade last week casts a little cloud over the market with early thoughts that cash may be no better than steady this week. Packers continue to reduce the slaughter pace in an attempt to back up cattle and bolster boxed beef prices. Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday, with choice up $1.50 and select up $3.90.

Hog futures were mixed. There is some caution being exercised in the nearby contracts. The current market fundamentals may not be sufficient to continue to push prices above the level of the current futures prices. However, later contracts continue to trend higher, with the October and later contracts again making new highs. Packers followed the pattern of last week with strong buying interest on Monday. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report was up $1.49. Pork cutouts added to the support with a gain of $0.73. Hog slaughter is running opposite of cattle, with an increasing number of hogs being processed.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The liquidation of cattle futures seems to have run its course, with buyers turning their attention to bullish market fundamentals.	1)	The uncertainty hanging over the market due to the implications of a strike at the JBS plant in Greeley may limit upside potential for now.
2)	Boxed beef prices have been trending higher, indicating demand is alive and well.	2)	There are expectations that the cash cattle trade will be no better than steady this week, with a potential for lower trade to develop.
3)	The October and later hog futures continue to make new contract highs on nearly a daily basis. Traders anticipate stronger prices as the year progresses.	3)	Nearby hog futures may move in a sideways trading range as the current fundamentals may not suggest higher prices.
4)	Packers purchased hogs aggressively on Monday. This is a strong beginning to the week with the potential for higher cash today.	4)	Hog supplies are plentiful and at higher weights than a year ago. Packers have not had to bid aggressively to obtain the hogs they need.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Follow the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed, with the cattle contracts finding mild support ahead of the day's end, while the lean hog complex closed mixed. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. May corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $7.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 73.14 points and the NASDAQ is up 80.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex found some mild support ahead of Monday's close, as traders seemed to believe that the market had endured enough technical pressure in recent days. April live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $233.10, June live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $229.65 and August live cattle closed $0.37 higher at $228.17. I think it's worth noting that the market closed merely steady; it's the contract's 100-day moving average, indicating that traders aren't convinced one way or another on which way the market could go next. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 102,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $244, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $382 to $383, which is $5.00 to $6.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.50 ($381.34) and select up $3.90 ($378.21) with a movement of 73 loads (52.45 loads of choice, 5.79 loads of select, 4.88 loads of trim and 9.67 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With the futures complex uncertain at this time, the fed cash cattle market could likely trade steady/somewhat lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was also able to mildly improve its position ahead of the day's close. March feeders closed $1.85 higher at $357.27, April feeders closed $2.12 higher at $353.32 and May feeders closed $2.27 higher at $349.47. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point, compared to last week feeder steers were trading $2.00 to $8.00 lower, and feeder heifers were trading $4.00 to $10.00 lower. Steer calves were selling $5.00 to $15.00 lower, and heifer calves were trading $10.00 to $20.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 75%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/27/2026: down $0.97, $371.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed, with its nearby contracts closing slightly lower while the deferred contracts maintained a slightly higher position. More than anything, the looming technical resistance simply seems to be too much for traders to bear at this point. April lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $95.57, June lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $109.47 and July lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $111.60. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.49 with a weighted average price of $91.87 on 5,355 head. Pork cutouts totaled 268.89 loads with 223.81 loads of pork cuts and 45.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.73, $98.50. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/26/2026: up $0.32, $89.44.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Packers will likely show modest interest in Tuesday's market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Trade Lower at the Week's Start

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is taking a cautious approach to Monday's trade as most of the livestock contracts are currently trading lower. With there being sizeable outside pressure looming over the livestock complex -- a lower trend is expected through the day's close. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. May corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $7.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 41.77 points and NASDAQ is up 91.13 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

There's been a plethora of stress and pressure overcoming the livestock complex, and again today, that's pressuring the live cattle contracts specifically to trade lower. Combine the external noise of the new developments between the U.S. and Iran, with the raw fact that last week, fed cash cattle prices traded lower -- and it should come as no real surprise that the live cattle contracts are again trading lower. April live cattle are down $0.27 at $232.05, June live cattle are down $0.52 at $228.60 and August live cattle are up $0.77 at $227.02. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $244, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $382 to $383, which is $5.00 to $6.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.65 ($380.49) and select up $2.17 ($376.48) with a movement of 30 loads (21.97 loads of choice, 3.26 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And without the backing of the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle contracts also find themselves trading lower into Monday's noon hour. March feeders are down $0.70 at $354.72, April feeders are down $0.90 at $350.37 and May feeders are down $0.97 at $346.22. Until some essence of support arises, a sideways, slightly lower trend is likely for the feeder cattle complex.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is taking a mixed approach into Monday's noon hour as the nearby contracts are trading slightly lower, while the deferred contracts are trading higher. It is worth noting that midday pork cutout values are higher as that's something that traders will always gladly accept. April lean hogs are down $0.27 at $95.40, June lean hogs are down $0.20 at $109.35 and July lean hogs are down $0.15 at $111.52.

The projected lean hog index for 2/27/2026 is up $0.25 at $89.69, and the actual index for 2/26/2026 is up $0.32 at $89.44. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because no hogs have traded yet. The only thing disclosed on the report is that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $91.32. Pork cutouts totaled 165.39 loads with 135.27 loads of pork cuts and 30.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.86, $99.63.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Show Follow-Through Selling

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures plummeted for a second consecutive day, with the nearby June contract posting the lowest close since Dec. 31, 2025. Selling momentum drove futures below technical support, adding to the weakness. Lower cash cattle trade took place on Friday, adding to the pressure. There could be follow-through liquidation today on continued uncertainty over the JBS strike, the Iran situation and lower cash. Northern dressed cattle traded $5 lower and southern live cattle traded $5 lower. This combination may not bode well for the market in the near term. Boxed beef prices closed higher with choice up $1.95 and select up $3.52. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders adding 1,911 live cattle futures positions, bringing their net-long positions to 116,963. They added 878 contracts in feeder cattle, bringing their net-long position to 19,634.

Hog futures closed mixed with weakness through the October contract and higher prices after that. The December and later contracts continued to make new highs. Optimism over increased demand continues to underpin the market. The slaughter pace remains strong as packers need to meet demand. A significant volume of cash hogs traded on Friday, with the price down $0.62. Packers may begin the week aggressively, similar to last week. They need hogs to maintain the increased slaughter pace. Pork cutout values increased by $0.39. The Commitment of Traders report showed the funds as net sellers, reducing their long position by 85 contracts to a net long of 111,133.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Liquidation generally runs its course over a two- or three-day period. Today is day three. The lower prices might find buying interest.	1)	There is too much uncertainty both in the market and in the outside markets that may keep pressure on cattle futures.
2)	Live cattle futures are quite a bit below cash and may be overdone to the downside.	2)	The weakness of cash cattle last week may be the beginning of further cash weakness over the next few weeks.
3)	The trend in hog futures is up, and the weakness on Friday may have been positioning before the end of the month.	3)	The optimism over pork demand will need to find continued underlying cash and cutout support or it will run out of strength.
4)	The hog slaughter pace remains strong, and packers may be willing to bid up today to purchase early.	4)	Trading activity may drift to begin the month as traders wait to see the strength of cash and cutouts.