Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Follow the Livestock Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed Thursday afternoon as traders helped push the live cattle contracts higher, but both the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts were met with some opposition. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. May corn is up 9 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 784.67 points and the NASDAQ is down 58.49 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,200 metric tons (mt) for 2026 were down 14% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (3,300 mt), South Korea (2,300 mt) and Mexico (1,700 mt). Pork net sales of 36,100 mt for 2026 were down 15% from the previous week but up 8% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (22,400 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and South Korea (2,500 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mildly higher as traders wanted to continue to support the market and see the contracts scale higher, but were cautious in doing so as they understand that advancing the market far beyond its 40-day moving average without fundamental support is risky. And given that the market hasn't seen any test yet in the cash sector, it's anyone's guess on how the chips will fall on Friday when inevitably some cash trade does develop. April live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $238.52, June live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $235.27 and August live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $233.40. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.68 ($386.89) and select up $0.26 ($380.61) with a movement of 96 loads (64.64 loads of choice, 7.40 loads of select, 16.35 loads of trim and 7.80 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that the board is trading higher, there's a chance that, although cash prices softened last week, traders will be able to either push the market slightly higher on Friday or at least hold it steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex wasn't as confident as the live cattle sector was throughout the day and ultimately ended the day a tick lower. March feeders closed $1.32 lower at $362.60, April feeders closed $1.75 lower at $359.00 and May feeders closed $1.47 lower at $355.52. More than anything, the technical resistance at the market's 40-day moving average was simply too much for traders to bear without seeing continued fundamental support at this time. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 400 to 500 pounds traded $10.00 higher, and those weighing 550 to 600 pounds sold $8.00 higher, while those weighing 500 to 550 pounds traded $10.00 lower. Heifer calves weighing 450 to 500 pounds were $10.00 higher, while heifers weighing 550 to 600 pounds sold $8.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 61%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/4/2026: down $0.34, $368.69.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed Thursday afternoon as the nearby contracts remained slightly skeptical, but the deferred months were able to close mildly higher. April lean hogs closed $1.40 lower at $95.67, June lean hogs closed $1.30 lower at $109.90 and July lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $112.10. More than anything, traders need to see robust fundamental support if they're going to pressure the market's resistance any further. Hog prices averaged $89.74 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, on 968 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.20. Pork cutouts totaled 327.03 loads, with 283.51 loads of pork cuts and 43.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.60, $99.22. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/3/2026: up $0.34, $90.18.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely bought the vast majority of the hogs they needed for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Dominate Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are mixed heading into Thursday's noon hour with traders longing to see continued fundamental support. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May corn is up 7 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 873.85 points and NASDAQ is down 138.07 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,200 metric tons (mt) for 2026 were down 14% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (3,300 mt), South Korea (2,300 mt) and Mexico (1,700 mt). Pork net sales of 36,100 mt for 2026 were down 15% from the previous week but up 8% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (22,400 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and South Korea (2,500 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mildly higher following Wednesday's sizeable surge. Traders are cautiously advancing the spot April contract above its 40-day moving average, but it's not come without some worry as traders question whether or not they're overdoing the upward trend right now. If we had seen some stronger trade in the fed cash cattle market, then there likely wouldn't be any worry amongst traders; but we've yet to see any cash trade develop. April live cattle are up $0.30 at $238.65, June live cattle are up $0.45 at $235.62 and August live cattle are up $0.37 at $233.60. There's a single bid currently on the table at $375 in Nebraska, but otherwise the market is sitting idle as feedlot managers wait for packers to offer up stronger bids. Asking prices are noted at $244 in the South but are still not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.10 ($388.47) and select up $0.56 ($380.91) with a movement of 48 loads (24.12 loads of choice, 4.98 loads of select, 11.98 loads of trim and 6.70 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is pushing its spot April contract above the 40-day moving average, but the feeder cattle complex isn't seeing the same level of support as traders aren't comfortable pushing above their 40-day moving average at this time. March feeders are down $0.87 at $363.05, April feeders are down $1.50 at $359.25 and May feeders are down $1.35 at $355.70. Unless something substantial develops in the cattle market's fundamentals, the feeder cattle contracts will likely continue to hedge on the side of safety and continue to trade steady to slightly lower.

LEAN HOGS:

Following Wednesday's sharp rally, the lean hog complex is mixed heading into Thursday's noon hour as traders no longer want to push the contracts up to the market's resistance. April lean hogs are down $1.62 at $95.45, June lean hogs are down $1.27 at $109.92 and July lean hogs are down $0.80 at $112.15. It is helpful to see pork cutout values mildly higher as traders need to see continued fundamental support.

The CME Projected Lean Hog Index for 3/4/2026 is up $0.37 at $90.55, and the actual index for 3/3/2026 is up $0.34 at $90.18. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 830 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $91.35. Pork cutouts totaled 157.31 loads with 128.89 loads of pork cuts and 28.42 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.56, $99.18.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Continue to Make New Highs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Try as one might throughout the day, there was nothing to find that was responsible for the substantial increase in cattle futures. It seemed as if traders had digested the bearishness of last week and decided to focus on the fundamentals. Uncertainty still exists, but traders gained the confidence to push prices higher. The strength in boxed beef prices continued on Wednesday, with choice up $0.52 and select up $1.77. Increasing boxed beef prices will require packers to increase the slaughter pace to meet the demand, and they do not have many cattle on hand. Feedlots may hold out for higher cash now that futures contracts have nearly regained the losses of last week. Cash cattle have not yet traded, but the sentiment of the market has turned bullish.

The uptrend in hog futures returned with the July and later contracts making new highs. The July contract moved briefly above $113, but closed slightly below that level. There were no prices released on the National Daily Direct Afternoon report despite a good number of hogs traded. Packers may need to step up to the plate today to purchase the hogs they need as the slaughter pace continues to increase. Hog runs may be tightening, providing support to the market. Pork cutout values increased by $0.12. The weekly average hog weight declined by 0.5 pounds to 290.9.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Continued strength in boxed beef should result in packers increasing slaughter and more aggressive buying in the cash market.	1)	Some live cattle contracts left a gap on the opening on Wednesday. That gap will be filled at some point.
2)	Feedlots may feel more confident to hold for at least steady cash this week now that futures have taken back much of last week's losses.	2)	A strike at the JBS plant in Greeley still looms and could take place at any time. This casts a cloud of uncertainty over the market.
3)	Most hog contracts pushed to new highs on Wednesday, which should keep traders adding to long positions as they trade with the trend.	3)	The weekly average hog weights are 1.8 pounds higher than a year ago at 290.9 pounds.
4)	Weekly hog weights decreased by 0.5 pounds to 290.9 pounds. Active slaughter has been pulling hogs forward.	4)	Packers have purchased a good volume of hogs so far this week. They may not be as aggressive the rest of the week.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex rallied through Wednesday's close as traders opted to refocus their attention on the market's fundamentals, rather than worrying about the lingering pressures. Bids were offered throughout the day in the North, but no cattle traded. May corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $4.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 238.14 points and the NASDAQ is up 290.79 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a splendid day for the live cattle complex as the market saw its contracts rally anywhere from $3.00 to $4.00 higher through Wednesday's end. And if today's higher close seems like somewhat of a whirlwind, you're not alone in feeling whiplashed, as the market's behavior over the last five trading days has been extreme. But in a world in which volatility rules over everything, and everyone opts to react now and think and process later, it shouldn't surprise us that the markets react in the same manner amid global turmoil, wide daily trading limits and algorithmic trading. April live cattle closed $4.22 higher at $238.35, June live cattle closed $4.50 higher at $234.17 and August live cattle closed $4.32 higher at $233.22. A single bid of $375 was offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but still no cattle have traded yet, and at this point, asking prices remain elusive. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.52 ($388.57) and select up $1.77 ($380.35) with a movement of 92 loads (64.25 loads of choice, 8.58 loads of select, 13.48 loads of trim and 6.13 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With the board trading higher, the cash market may be able to trade steady, if not a tick higher as well.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also enjoyed a rallying type of day as the market saw its contracts rally mostly beyond $7.00 higher through Wednesday's close. March feeders closed $6.72 higher at $363.92, April feeders closed $7.45 higher at $360.75 and May feeders closed $7.65 higher at $357.00. And once again, today's higher end largely stems from the fact that traders elected to look past some of the external pressures weighing against the marketplace, and again focus their attention on the long-term, bullish outlook. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers under 700 pounds sold unevenly steady, and feeder heifers across all weight groups sold sharply lower. Steers over 700 pounds traded $10.00 to $11.00 lower. Replacement heifers traded higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 66%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/3/2026: down $0.66, $368.93.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was also able to enjoy a bit of a rally through Wednesday's end as traders were pleased to see a slight uptick in pork demand. April lean hogs closed $1.32 higher at $97.07, June lean hogs closed $1.72 higher at $111.20 and July lean hogs closed $1.55 higher at $112.95. In order for traders to keep with the upward momentum on Thursday, fundamental support will be essential. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that 5,345 head traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $91.24. Pork cutouts totaled 259.55 loads with 219.74 loads of pork cuts and 39.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.12, $98.62. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 128,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/2/2026: up $0.15, $89.84.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week.