Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Propel the Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been another prosperous day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading higher again today -- even though contract highs were reached for many of the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts on Wednesday. The added market support of the Dow Jones continued rally is helping matters, as well as economic strength always bodes well for the commodity markets. March corn is up 8 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 266.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As if Wednesday's ambitious action wasn't enough, the live cattle complex is continuing to trade higher into Thursday's noon hour. February live cattle are up $1.07 at $201.12, April live cattle are up $0.87 at $200.65 and June live cattle are up $0.92 at $195.82. And once again, Thursday's advancement scores new contract highs for most of the nearby contracts. Thursday's momentum is especially exhilarating as traders are largely making this move on their own as midday boxed beef prices are lower, and the cash cattle market still hasn't seen any significant trade development. There was a little bit of movement in the cash market on Tuesday at $201 in Kansas, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average but given that no more cattle have sold since then, it seems as though feedlot managers are content waiting for packers to get more aggressive in the market. Asking prices in the South are noted at $203 plus but are still not established yet for the North. But packer interest could begin to pop up and improve any moment now. It is unsettling to see boxed beef prices lower at today's noon hour -- which needs to remain a top priority in monitoring in the days to come because if demand weakens, some of the market's momentum will inevitability dissipate.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.50 ($331.52) and select down $0.06 ($317.93) with a movement of 91 loads (47.33 loads of choice, 23.11 loads of select, 9.45 loads of trim and 11.03 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the technical support of the higher trend in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market is currently looking past the corn market's $0.07 to $0.08 rally, and it too is rallying into Thursday's noon hour. March feeders are up $1.27 at $274.37, April feeders are up $1.22 at $272.52 and May feeders are up $1.07 at $270.55. Aside from the technical support which the market is currently receiving, it's also helpful that feeder cattle demand remains incredible in the countryside as just Wednesday afternoon, the CME feeder cattle index closed at $278.18. Although much of the Midwest and Southern part of the United States is receiving extremely cold weather this week -- buyer demand hasn't weakened whatsoever.

LEAN HOGS:

With midday pork cutout values up almost $3.00 higher -- it's no wonder why the lean hog complex is rallying! February lean hogs are up $0.62 at $82.10, April lean hogs are up $0.10 at $87.35 and June lean hogs are up $0.35 at $101.02. Thursday's big jump in the carcass price is mainly because of the $5.74 gain in the butt and the $5.18 jump in the loin, but the belly isn't far behind with its $4.23 rally.

The projected lean hog index for 1/22/2025 is up $0.21 at $81.93, and the actual index for 1/21/2025 is up $0.26 at $81.72. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 495 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $80.20. Pork cutouts total 162.89 loads with 151.99 loads of pork cuts and 10.90 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.93, $93.10.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Steady Cash Cattle Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures exploded Wednesday as buyers piled into the market. The recent weakness was negated and then some with all contracts for live and feeder cattle setting new contract highs. The February live cattle contract closed above $200. Some early cash trades this week indicated cash could trade steady with last week. Traders took the discount futures held to cash out of the market. Traders may begin to look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report to be released on Friday, but this may leave futures mixed with limited liquidation ahead of the report. The Cattle on Feed report average estimate for on-feed as of Jan. 1 at 99.8% of a year ago. Placements in December at 101.8% and marketed in December at 101.3%. Placements are expected to be the wild card with the range of estimates from 98.8% to 107.1%. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $0.03 and select down $1.56. Weekly export sales are delayed until Friday.

Hog futures managed to close higher Wednesday, supported by packers aggressively purchasing hogs and paying higher prices. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.51 with a weighted average price of $81.26. Packers purchased most of their needs for the week with lower cash expected. The liquidation subsided with follow-through selling running its course with buyers becoming more aggressive. Pork cutouts continue to struggle with values down $0.65 on Wednesday. Hog weights declined by 0.5 pounds last week to an average of 291.7 pounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs for live and feeder cattle futures keep the uptrend intact. Traders continue to trade with the trend.	1)	The cattle market may be near the top if boxed beef prices cannot find consistent support. Boxed beef prices have been mixed or lower for the past week.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to trade no worse than steady, which will support the market at the current level. Packers will need to purchase cattle to meet demand.	2)	The Cattle on Feed report could limit the upside price potential if placements were higher than expected.
3)	Hog futures seem to have corrected and may now be viewed as a buying opportunity by traders anticipating demand improving due to record-high beef prices.	3)	Pork cutouts continue to struggle with plentiful hogs keeping the market supplied. Packers can purchase hogs without difficulty.
4)	Hog weights declined last week by 0.5 pounds to an average of 291.7 pounds. This is 0.4 pounds below a year ago.	4)	Hog futures may move in a sideways pattern at best in the near term as the market sorts out the supply and demand balance. Futures may remain choppy.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Futures Close at Record Highs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Strong triple-digit gains have flooded through live cattle and feeder cattle markets Wednesday, moving nearby live cattle and feeder cattle prices to new record-high levels. The most obvious shift is spot month live cattle contracts closing above the $200-per-cwt threshold. The ability to move to the double-century market currently plays a bigger role than any technical or fundamental factors in the market. Although it is expected that the current support will find additional momentum, it is uncertain how aggressive traders will be early Thursday morning as they return to the market. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $1.51 with a weighted average of $81.26 on 6,868 hogs. March corn closed down 5 3/4 at $4.843, and March soybean meal closed up $4.80 at $315.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 130.92 at 44,156.73.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures moved to new highs Wednesday afternoon, with the spot-month February contract moving above $200 per cwt for the first time in history. This move helped to support additional buyer support flooding into the entire complex as traders continue to focus on strong beef market fundamentals, but also increased technical support and expectations that these moves will gain a broader base of buyer support over the coming days and weeks. The ability to sustain price levels at this point through the next several days may not only instill strong activity and momentum in front-month contracts, but the strength is expected to filter through the rest of the cattle complex. Cash cattle markets are relatively quiet midweek, although the overall optimism of strong futures market support and early week cash trade at last week's levels is helping to cause many to feel prices will be at worst steady for the week. A few bids are now on the table in parts of Texas near midday at fully steady money with Tuesday's light Southern business. Live deals were marked at $201, also fully steady with the prior week's weighted averages. The North was fairly quiet with just a handful of dressed trade reported in Iowa at $320, certainly not enough trade to establish any kind of accurate trend for the week. On Wednesday, asking prices are around $202-plus in the South but still not fully established in the North. February live cattle closed $3 higher at $200.05, April live cattle closed $2.45 higher at $199.775 and June live cattle closed $2.25 higher at $194.9. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.03 ($332.02) and select down $1.56 ($317.99) with a movement of 138.83 loads (98.57 loads of choice, 22.02 loads of select, 6.86 loads of trim and 11.38 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Limited but steady cash cattle trade has developed over the past two days in Southern areas. With cash and futures prices at record levels, it is uncertain how aggressive packers will be at these price points through the end of the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures posted triple-digit gains Wednesday afternoon with nearby contracts once again moving to record-high levels. January futures closed above $277 per cwt, with gains above $2 per cwt for the day, while March through May contracts posted gains of $4 to $5 per cwt as traders continue to flood into the market following the higher upward shift in both live cattle and feeder cattle trade. The additional softness in the grain market is giving additional support to the feeder cattle complex, allowing for even wider spreads given the higher beef values and lower feed costs available at this point. January feeders closed $2.65 higher at $277.05, March feeders closed $5.83 higher at $273.075 and April feeders closed $4.83 higher at $271.3. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Jan. 17: up $0.16, $278.18.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures closed higher Wednesday afternoon following spillover support from the aggressive gains in cattle trade. Even though the price trajectory of the cattle and hog markets remains in completely different directions, the strength in all cattle and beef markets is helping to support the hog complex. This support may be temporary, as the fundamental activity in pork markets is quite different than in the cattle market. But any support to lean hog futures is a welcome sight. February lean hogs closed $0.28 higher at $81.475, April lean hogs closed $0.58 higher at $87.275, and May lean hogs closed $0.58 higher at $92. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 444,000 head, 33,000 head less than a week ago and 46,000 head less than a year ago. Pork cutouts totaled 282.71 loads with 247.12 loads of pork cuts and 35.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.65 at $90.17. The CME Lean Hog Index for Jan. 17: up $0.06, $81.46.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Early cash hog bids are expected to be generally steady Thursday morning. The lack of active direction in pork cutout values and sluggish reaction in lean hog futures may limit end-of-the-week cash hog prices. 

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Futures Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Renewed cash cattle buyer interest has slowly redeveloped Wednesday morning with Southern bids at $201 per cwt live basis. This is steady with the limited trade seen Tuesday and also steady with last week's price point. Strong, triple-digit gains have developed in both live cattle and feeder cattle futures with the March feeder cattle contract leading the charge higher as gains have exceeded $4 per cwt Wednesday morning. This is helping keep nearby live cattle futures at $199 per cwt, as traders test the $200 per cwt threshold. March corn is down 1 3/4 at $4.883 and March soybean meal is up $5.20 at $316.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 103.95 at 44,129.76.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have rebounded from early-week pressure with triple-digit gains in all nearby contract months. Spot-month February futures are leading the upward market shift with gains of $2.20 per cwt as traders continue to hover near the $200 per cwt price level. At midmorning, February live cattle futures are at $199.25 per, with April futures close behind at $199 per cwt. The ability to move prices to and above the $200 per cwt threshold could create not only additional buyer support across the complex, but there could be some additional long-term volatility added to the entire complex at current price levels. Cash cattle markets remain generally quiet following limited trade in the South on Tuesday. A few bids are now on the table in parts of Texas at midmorning at fully steady money with Tuesday's light Southern business, live deals were marked at $201, also fully steady with the prior week's weighted averages. The North was fairly quiet with just a handful of dressed trade reported in Iowa at $320, certainly not enough trade to establish any kind of an accurate trend for the week. Wednesday asking prices are around $202-plus in the South, but still not fully established in the North. February live cattle are $2.20 higher at $199.25, April live cattle are $1.68 higher at $199., June live cattle are $1.68 higher at $194.325. Boxed beef prices are Lower: choice down $0.19 ($331.86) and select down $1.11 ($318.44) with a movement of 81.95 loads (58.20 loads of choice, 8.91 loads of select, 6.07 loads of trim and 8.77 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures quickly followed the renewed market momentum seen in live cattle futures Wednesday morning. This has allowed for moderate gains in the lightly traded January contract, although most of the focus has surrounded the March contract, which posted gains more than $4 per cwt through much of the morning. Most of the trade activity is centered around the March and April futures contracts, combined with firm support through the entire live cattle complex as well as renewed pressure in grain markets, which has the potential to reduce feeding costs of cattle put in yards over the upcoming weeks. January feeders are $1.85 higher at $276.25, March feeders are $4.40 higher at $271.65 and April feeders are $3.30 higher at $269.775.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are mixed in a narrow trading range early Wednesday morning. The active, triple-digit gains in cattle futures seem to have diverted most of trader attention and energy away from the lean hog complex for the time being. This could continue to keep trade volume and overall price movement limited through the rest of the session, although some late-day market activity could redevelop if outside markets start to shift from morning levels. The underlying softness in pork cutout values and concern about how future trade direction and talk of tariffs could impact overall global pork sales has traders slightly cautious; but for now, there is not expected to be any significant aggressive moves until more direct information is available to traders. February lean hogs are $0.20 higher at $81.4, April lean hogs are $0.10 lower at $86.6 and May lean hogs are $0.13 higher at $91.55. Hog Prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $4.13 with a weighted average of $81.33, ranging from $76.00 to $83.50 on 4,853 head with a five-day rolling average of $80.24. Pork Cutouts totaled 159.89 loads with 137.28 loads of pork cuts and 22.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.16 at $89.08.