Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Hit the Pause Button on the Cattle Market's Rally

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts would like to continue their rally, but aren't comfortable doing so until traders see what comes to fruit in this week's cash cattle market. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading lower as traders are disgruntled with the morning's export report. May corn is up 5 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 52.31 points.

Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 10,200 mt for 2025 were down 29% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,000 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2025 -- a marketing year low -- were down 11% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and South Korea (2,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is again trading mixed as the market continues to twiddle its fingers, waiting for the cash cattle market to spring into action. Thankfully, boxed beef prices are higher, which continues to lend fundamental support while the market waits to see what the cash cattle complex does. April live cattle are down $0.15 at $206.67, June live cattle are up $0.17 at $203.02 and August live cattle are up $0.10 at $200.17. Slaughter disruptions amid blowing snow and hurricane type winds are expected again today. A note was shared earlier Thursday that at least on Eastern Regional, packers will not slaughter today or Friday, which will impact weekly throughput numbers.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.34 ($329.95) and select up $1.74 ($310.42) with a movement of 58 loads (30.90 loads of choice, 10.75 loads of select, 6.35 loads of trim and 9.85 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading mixed after the market successfully closed at new all-time highs on Wednesday afternoon. The market has plenty of fundamental support encouraging it to continue to trade higher. However, without full buy-in and support from the live cattle contracts, traders are slowing pulling up the reins on the market's relentless rally. March feeders are up $0.32 at $287.15, April feeders are up $0.07 at $286.80 and May feeders are down $0.22 at $287.27.

LEAN HOGS:

With a sorry export report, it's not surprising to see the lean hog complex again trading lower. April lean hogs are down $0.20 at $85.37, June lean hogs are down $0.80 at $95.70 and July lean hogs are down $0.67 at $97.10. From a solely fundamental sense, it is supportive to see both cash prices and pork cutout values trading higher. However, pork cutout values have been too unreliable to bank on a higher trend at this point.

The projected lean hog index for 3/19/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.20, and the actual index for 3/18/2025 is up $0.08 at $89.41. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.35 with a weighted average price of $90.40, ranging from $87.50 to $92.00 on 2,602 head with a five-day rolling average of $89.96. Pork cutouts total 139.98 loads with 120.92 loads of pork cuts and 19.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.27, $95.46.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade May Not Take Place Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are a sight to behold as new record prices continue to be made. All live cattle contracts closed above $200 on Wednesday as traders anticipate higher cash again this week. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $6.29 and select down $0.55. The strength of boxed beef has been incredible, indicating demand remains strong even at these lofty levels. Feedlots are expected to hold for higher cash this week. Packers may be short-bought as they did not purchase very many for deferred delivery last week. Traders may begin positioning themselves for the Cattle on Feed report to be released Friday. The estimates are for on-feed as of March 1 at 98.2% of a year ago; placements in February at 85.6%; cattle marketed in February at 91.8%.

Hog futures showed another day of weakness Wednesday as traders are not sure whether demand will improve as much as anticipated. It seems consumers prefer beef and high prices have not increased demand for pork. Pork cutouts declined by $0.45 on Wednesday. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed strong packer interest with an increase of $2.74 on a large amount of hog purchased. The packers likely have most of the hogs purchased for the week with cash expected to be lower Thursday. Hog slaughter was lighter on Wednesday due to some plants being closed because of weather. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 140,000 but may increase as packers make up for what was lost on Wednesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	All live cattle contracts closed above $200 Wednesday with consistent new highs fueling increased buying interest from traders.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report may trigger some profit-taking as traders sell some of their long positions just in case the report is negative.
2)	Feedlots will hold for higher cash. The continued support from futures and boxed beef will provide the confidence to hold out.	2)	Cattle futures are overbought and may run out of continued buying interest at these lofty price levels.
3)	Hog futures are not trending higher but have developed a wide, sideways trading range. Prices may be building support.	3)	The weekly hog weights increased by 0.2 pounds to an average of 289.8 pounds. This is 2.7 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	Chart gaps remain quite a bit higher. Gaps are generally filled at some point. The April contract may run out of time but later contracts may close the gaps.	4)	Pork cutouts have yet to find consistent support. This will continue to limit the upside price potential.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Continue to Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex had another victorious day, as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed higher as traders were pleased with the note of stronger choice cuts and believe the cash cattle market will trade higher later this week. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex closed lower as technical pressure remains bothersome. May corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel, and May soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 383.32 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a day, what a day! Whether you look at the board's stronger performance or at the continued support of boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex successfully rounded out the day higher thanks to ample support. The only soft spot in the market was Wednesday's estimated slaughter of only 96,000 head. But with a handful of plants closed in Nebraska because of freezing rain/snow and hellacious winds, there's nothing anyone can do but weather the storm. However, the slight dip in processing will likely have an effect on boxed beef prices, as supplies are relatively thin already. It will be interesting to note, however, whether packers elect to run an extra shift later this week to make up for the loss in production or just simply choose to go without -- time will tell. Still no cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, as feedlot managers are committed to waiting the week out to see what prices can do later this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $207-plus but are still not established in the North. April live cattle closed $1.45 higher at $206.82, June live cattle closed $1.85 higher at $202.85, and August live cattle closed $1.37 higher at $200.07. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 96,000 head -- 27,000 head less than a week ago and 19,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $6.29 ($329.61) and select down $0.55 ($308.68) with a movement of 110 loads (71.62 loads of choice, 13.69 loads of select, 4.92 loads of trim and 19.73 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Feedlot managers are committed to advancing the market again this week, as they see an opportunity to push the market higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex again ran higher as the market continues to be well supported from the live cattle market's higher trend and from excellent demand in the countryside. Buyers know that the closer time gets to cookout season, feeder cattle are only going to get more and more expensive so long as enough adequate moisture hits this spring. March feeders closed $1.85 higher at $286.82, April feeders closed $2.17 higher at $286.72 and May feeders closed $2.25 higher at $287.50. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming, compared to last week, steers and heifers traded $3 to $5 higher with instances up to $15 higher on cattle suitable for grass. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/18/2025: up $0.54, $284.65.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex again closed lower, as the market seems to be struggling from a technical sense as traders aren't willing to take on the resistance at $88. It hasn't helped matters either that pork cutout values have been unreliable, as the carcass price has recently danced along both sides of steady. But on Wednesday, the carcass price closed lower thanks mainly to the pressure that was endured by the rib's $6.52 decline. April lean hogs closed $2.02 lower at $85.57, June lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $96.50, and July lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $97.77. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.74 with a weighted average price of $91.02 on 10,119 head. Pork cutouts totaled 296.16 loads with 253.52 loads of pork cuts and 42.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.45, $95.19. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 377,000 head -- 112,000 head less than a week ago and 111,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/17/2025: up $0.04, $89.32.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that on both of the last two days the cash hog market has traded higher and seen more than 10,000 head trade each day likely means that packers have secured enough inventory and that prices will be lower throughout the remainder of the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Trade Higher as Traders Believe Fundamental Support Will Prevail

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are trading higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the bullish underpinning of the market seems to be growing more and more prevalent. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are noted in the South at $205 plus. May corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 298.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is feeling lively as the market is excited to note the $6.02 jump in choice cuts, which has helped traders feel confident about their decision to push the spot June contract above the market's resistance at $201. There still hasn't been any cash cattle trade to speak of, but it's assumed that prices will trade steady if not higher later this week. Asking prices are noted at $205 in the South, but are still not known in the North. April live cattle are up $1.60 at $206.97, June live cattle are up $1.95 at $202.95 and August live cattle are up $1.60 at $200.30.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $6.02 ($329.34) and select down $1.00 ($308.23) with a movement of 61 loads (41.31 loads of choice, 8.92 loads of select, 2.76 loads of trim and 8.45 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Seeing the live cattle contracts trade higher has sparked even more enthusiasm throughout the feeder cattle complex as its contracts are comfortably trading anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher into the noon hour. March feeders are up $1.80 at $286.77, April feeders are up $1.95 at $286.50 and May feeders are up $2.00 at $287.25. And with the spring season set to officially begin Thursday, buyer demand in the countryside has been even more aggressive this week than last week, as buyers know that supplies will run thin the closer time gets to turn out season.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading noticeably lower this morning as the market's resistance at $88.00 simply seems to be too much for traders to bear at this point. And yes, pork cutout values are slightly higher this morning, but before traders put much confidence in the market's higher cutout price, they're going to need to see a steady trend in higher cutout prices. April lean hogs are down $2.12 at $85.47, June lean hogs are down $1.32 at $96.02 and July lean hogs are down $1.12 at $97.32.

The projected lean hog index for 3/18/2025 is up $0.08 at $89.41 and the actual index for 3/17/2025 is up $0.04 at $89.32. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.24 with a weighted average price of $90.05, ranging from $86.50 to $91.00 on 2,505 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.81. Pork cutouts total 158.29 loads with 136.84 loads of pork cuts and 21.45 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.18, $95.82.