Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Lower While Hogs Inch Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed, with the lean hog contracts closing a touch stronger, while the cattle contracts fell lower. The biggest news of the day, however, was the fact that some cash cattle trade developed in the North at $358, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 65.88 points and the NASDAQ is up 313.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex kept with its lower trend through the day's end, even though some positive developments formed in the fed cash cattle market. February live cattle closed $1.15 lower at $228.40, April live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $228.15 and June live cattle closed $0.65 lower at $222.10. In the North, some light trade was noted in parts of Nebraska where cattle traded for $358, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Still no Southern cattle have traded. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $232 to $233, and in the North at $360 plus. Traders simply can't break through the market's resistance at the 100-day moving average, as traders don't believe that right now is the right time to break through that significant of a barrier. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.19 ($357.28) and select down $2.46 ($343.97) with a movement of 89 loads (63.40 loads of choice, 10.73 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.44 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The market has shown that packers still need more cattle and that they're willing to pay more money for them.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex followed the direction of the live cattle markets and ended the day fully lower. January feeders closed $1.25 lower at $340.27, March feeders closed $1.72 lower at $334.60 and April feeders closed $1.85 lower at $333.17. The market will likely keep with this steady to lower trend until after the holidays pass and until there's a sure-fire rally from both traders and the market's fundamentals.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to rally through Thursday's end as the market regained an opportunity to trade higher with Wednesday's weaker close. With the contract no longer being up against immediate resistance pressure, traders felt safe mildly advancing the contracts. February lean hogs closed $1.12 higher at $84.12, April lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $88.95 and June lean hogs closed $0.92 higher at $101.60. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.06 with a weighted average price of $68.65 on 2,155 head. Pork cutouts totaled 240.60 loads with 207.68 loads of pork cuts and 32.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.02, $98.54. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 495,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/16/2025: up $0.57, $83.87. The CME lean hog index 12/17/2025: up $0.26, $350.05.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's most likely that packers have bought the vast majority of their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Dressed Cattle Cash Begin to Trade $4.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the complex continues to see the cattle contracts dip lower, but the lean hog contracts are trading higher. Some light cash cattle trade has developed in the North at $358, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 105.57 points and the NASDAQ is up 308.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is again trading lower, as though some light cash cattle trade has been reported at higher prices again this week, traders still don't believe they possess enough well-rounded support to successfully conquer the market's 100-day moving average. This leaves the complex only one way to go, which is lower. February live cattle are down $0.90 at $228.65, April live cattle are down $0.62 at $228.50 and June live cattle are down $0.37 at $222.37. Even though packers bought the largest weekly trade volume of 2024 and 2025 last week at just over 103,000 head, fed cash cattle prices are trending a tick higher again this morning as packers are still in need of more cattle. Some light trade has been reported in the North by a regional packer at $358, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few more bids are on the table in parts of Kansas, but no Southern trade has developed yet. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $232 to $233, and in the North at $360 plus.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.95 ($357.04) and select down $2.38 ($344.05) with a movement of 46 loads ($31.77 loads of choice, 6.76 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.52 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Continuing to follow the direction of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are trading lower into Thursday's noon hour. January feeders are down $0.67 at $340.85, March feeders are down $1.40 at $334.92 and April feeders are down $1.70 at $333.32. Although the market continues to see adequate fundamental support, it's likely the complex could keep with this steady/somewhat lower trend as traders don't believe this is the best time to advance the complex over a major resistance threshold with the Christmas holiday just days ahead.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher as traders are to see pork cutout values up over $2.00 higher. And with Wednesday's lower technical close, the market is no longer up against immediate resistance pressure. February lean hogs are up $0.87 at $83.87, April lean hogs are up $0.87 at $88.82 and June lean hogs are up $0.85 at $101.52.

The projected lean hog index for 12/17/2025 is up $0.01 at $83.88, and the actual index for 12/16/2025 is up $0.57 at $83.87. Pork cutouts total 98.45 loads with 78.24 loads of pork cuts and 20.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.18, 100.72. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $68.27, down $1.90, ranging from $65.00 to $70.00 on 1,670 head and a five-day rolling average of $70.20.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look Ahead to the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures have been unable to penetrate price resistance and close the chart gaps. This triggered selling as closing the gaps below the market may be easier to accomplish. The optimism of steady to higher cash has waned as boxed beef prices are not finding solid support. Boxed beef was lower in all categories, with choice down $2.79 and select down $2.67. Cash cattle may not trade today as business may wait until later on Friday due to the Cattle on Feed report being released then. The trade estimates for On Feed as of Dec. 1 are 98.3%. Placements in November are estimated at 92.4%. Marketings in November are estimated at 88.4% of a year ago. Placements will be lower, but lower marketings will more than offset the decline. Estimates for placements range from 84.4% to 96.0%.

Hog futures retraced after some profit-taking was triggered. The lower opening indicated that traders anticipated fundamentals may not support prices at this level. However, cash increased on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, gaining $0.26 on a moderate volume of hogs purchased. It is estimated that much of the buying for the holiday period has been completed. Pork cutout values were $0.02. This could provide some support today. Hog slaughter remains strong and higher than last week and a year ago. Hog weights finally declined with a weekly average of 294.1, down a pound from the previous week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have a chart gap above the market that will likely be filled before the close of the year.	1)	Cattle futures have not been able to penetrate resistance and close the chart gaps on the upside. The lower gaps may be the next target.
2)	The Cattle on Feed report might be supportive to the market as placements remain substantially below a year ago.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to show weakness. Demand has not been as strong recently, with consumers reducing purchases due to high prices.
3)	Weekly hog weights declined by 1.0 pounds, totaling 294.1 pounds. This has been the first decline since the week of Aug. 27.	3)	Hog futures may be ripe for a further price retracement moving toward the holidays.
4)	The hog slaughter pace remains strong, with packers processing more hogs to keep up with demand.	4)	Even though weekly hog weights declined last week, hogs remain 4.6 pounds heavier than a year ago.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Turn Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed fully lower Wednesday afternoon as the market hit a lull spot, not receiving the fundamental support it needed, and as traders began to show less interest in the market with the holidays nearing. No cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is up 4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 228.29 points and the NASDAQ is down 418.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex once again fell lower as traders simply aren't willing to challenge the market's resistance at this time. There's a strong likelihood that the market won't chew off more than it can bear during the next two weeks. Traders collectively know that this time frame is normally a quiet point for the marketplace, as little develops in the futures market, and there's not much gained fundamentally either. Until traders know that they have enough support to break through a barrier like the 100-day moving average, a sideways or slightly lower trend will likely be the market's theme. February live cattle closed $1.15 lower at $229.55, April live cattle closed $1.15 lower at $229.12 and June live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $222.75. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but asking prices remain firm around $233 plus in the South. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.79 ($356.09) and select down $2.67 ($346.43) with a movement of 170 loads (113.91 loads of choice, 25.80 loads of select, 12.66 loads of trim and 17.98 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. With packers buying a plethora of cattle last week, that likely means that they won't be as aggressive in this week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following in the live cattle market's wake, the feeder cattle complex also closed lower this afternoon. January feeders closed $1.80 lower at $341.52, March feeders closed $1.27 lower at $336.32 and April feeders closed $1.27 lower at $335.02. With not much excitement in the market at this time, a sideways lower trend is expected. The CME feeder cattle index 12/16/2025: up $0.94, $349.79.

LEAN HOGS:

Without much trader interest helping to support the complex, and very little developing in terms of fundamental support, the lean hog contracts fell lower through Wednesday's close. February lean hogs closed $1.77 lower at $83.00, April lean hogs closed $1.75 lower at $87.95 and June lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $100.67. Until some sizeable fundamental support develops, it's unlikely that the market will challenge its resistance at $90.00 anytime soon. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.26 with a weighted average price of $70.17 on 3,622 head. Pork cutouts total 240.60 loads with 207.68 loads of pork cuts and 32.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.02, $98.54. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/15/2025: up $0.31, $83.30.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's unlikely that packers will buy many hogs this week with the holiday-shortened kills over the next two weeks.