Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Can Hog Strength Continue?

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both feeder cattle futures and live cattle futures struggled with finding direction Monday, both closing slightly higher on the day. Sale barn reports have been all over the place with some still seeing strong buying interest and others leaving producers disappointed or choosing to "no sale" the cattle. Packers have a steady flow of cattle to slaughter currently, although placement numbers have many traders questioning the long-term availability of feeders.

Hog futures are finding some support to start the week off from a technical perspective. From a fundamental perspective, pork cutout values were higher Monday giving a little extra boost to the market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Increasing feed and fuel costs make producers less likely to feed to higher weights, giving a long-term bullish outlook due to the pounds of meat the market could be missing out on.	1)	Availability of cattle for slaughter is plentiful, putting packers in control.
2)	Lower placement numbers on the latest Cattle on Feed report bring concern for the longer-term number of cattle available for slaughter.	2)	Consumer distrust in imported beef may cause some tension when choosing a protein source in the grocery store.
3)	Pork cutout values find strength in the short term.	3)	Hog index values have been lower, along with price pressure from a lower Daily Direct Hog report.
4)	Hog futures are finding technical support in an oversold market.	4)	Heavier dressed weights offer plenty of pork to the market.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Stronger Tones Follow the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts were granted a day of higher closes across all three of the markets thanks to greater trader support. New showlists for the week are lighter in all the major feeding regions. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 295.15 points and the NASDAQ is down 56.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thanks to the support of traders, the live cattle contracts were able to end the day higher, with the extra support of trader interest helping push the contracts along. October live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $212.67, December live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $214.57 and February live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $216.47. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and both bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point too. It is assumed that prices will be steady at best again this week as packers have regained leverage and have been able to build up inventory in recent weeks. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 104,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $222, which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at $345, which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,292 head. Of which 74% (58,409 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (20,883 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.41 ($375.82) and select down $2.59 ($358.49), with a movement of 162 loads (37.94 loads of choice, 12.88 loads of select, 101.34 loads of trim and 9.69 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers have plenty of supply around them, it's likely that prices will be lower again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Continuing to follow in the live cattle market's wake, the feeder cattle contracts also ended the day higher. September feeders closed $0.55 higher at $321.45, October feeders closed $0.50 higher at $317.02 and November feeders closed $0.50 higher at $310.42. And it's likely that throughout the remainder of the week, the market continues to closely mirror the live cattle market's behavior. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers under 800 pounds sold $10.00 to $15.00 lower. Weights over 800 pounds sold $10.00 lower to $2.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold from $5.00 lower to $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 80%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/28/2026: down $3.49, $329.31

LEAN HOGS:

All in all, it was a winning day for the lean hog contracts as not only did the contracts end the day higher, but pork cutout values were also stronger, which gives the market a nice blend of technical and fundamental support. October lean hogs closed $1.77 higher at $83.67, December lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $74.15 and February lean hogs closed $1.55 higher at $76.52. Pork cutouts totaled 254.05 loads, with 224.52 loads of pork cuts and 29.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.61, $97.67. Hog prices ended the day lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.84 with a weighted average price of $88.73 on 2,137 head. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/27/2026: down $0.62, $91.52.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that pork cutout values were higher on Monday, there's a chance that packers may be more aggressive in Tuesday's market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Stronger Trader Support Helps Drive Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is rallying mildly into midday Monday as traders are supportive of the complex early this week. New showlists for the week are lighter in all the major feeding regions. December corn is down 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 340.70 points and the NASDAQ is down 90.51 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although morning boxed beef prices are lower and it's fully assumed that fed cash cattle prices will be lower again this week. Traders are allowing the live cattle contracts to trade mildly higher as they see no immediate danger in merely allowing the contracts to remain in their sideways trend. October live cattle are up $0.75 at $212.47, December live cattle are up $0.87 at $214.60 and February live cattle are up $0.90 at $216.42. New showlists for the week are lighter in all the major feeding regions.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $222 which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at $345 which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,292 head. Of which 74% (58,409 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (20,883 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.03 ($375.20) and select down $6.57 ($354.51) with a movement of 132 loads (19.84 loads of choice, 7.99 loads of select, 100.32 loads of trim and 3.72 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher as it continues to closely follow the live cattle market's trend. September feeders are up $1.57 at $322.47, October feeders are up $1.55 at $318.02 and November feeders are up $1.47 at $311.40. So long as the live cattle market continues to scale higher, it's likely that the feeder cattle complex will too.

LEAN HOGS :

The lean hog complex is also trading higher as thankfully its market is being met with well rounded support as not only are traders helping drive the contracts higher, but this morning midday pork cutout values are stronger too. October lean hogs are up $1.55 at $83.45, December lean hogs are up $1.97 at $74.27 and February lean hogs are up $1.72 at $76.70. The market is nearing a resistance plane at $75.00, which could cause traders to not push the contracts beyond that price point. The projected lean hog index for 8/28/2026 is down $0.66 at $90.86 and the actual index for 8/27/2026 is down $0.62 at $91.52. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.00 at $88.65, ranging from $86.00 to $89.00 on 1,147 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.49. Pork cutouts total 143.25 loads with 133.00 loads of pork cuts and 10.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.49, $99.55.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Consumer Doubts Over Imported Meat

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Monday is the last trading day for the August live cattle contract. In previous months, we've seen the market work to close the gap between cash values and futures markets. Cattle markets are weighing the impact potential from Trump's announcement last week, to allow tariff relief on imports of ground beef. On one hand, the capacity of the amount we can realistically increase imports on an already large import volume over the next 90 days. On the other hand, what is imported will be sold at discounted prices, impacting the cost of meat across the board. Then there is the matter of consumer bias, as headlines of recalled product from earlier this month have been circulating as well as doubts about the quality of the imported product. Like we have seen in the lettuce market, consumers can lose faith in a product very quickly.

Hog futures found little strength last week despite pressure in the cash market as well as cutouts. Overall, there is little to get excited about in the hog market. Pork demand is lower in the store despite lower prices.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	As corn futures rally, the cost of feed will discourage producers from feeding cattle to as heavy of weights as we have seen recently. Lighter slaughter weights mean less meat available to the already tight market.	1)	Boxed beef prices have weighed heavily on the market, and cash prices are expected to further decline.
2)	October live cattle futures are currently a significant discount to the cash value. With last trading day, that gap could close during the final trading session.	2)	Increased beef imports may actually reduce beef demand as consumers may be concerned over the quality and safety of the imported beef.
3)	Pork exports are expected to grow throughout 2026.	3)	Heavier dressed weights are keeping production volumes higher than expected.
4)	Hog futures are oversold and appear to be finding support at these levels.	4)	Summer grilling is nearly over, and softer pork demand is expected as we head into fall.