Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary

GENERAL COMMENTS
Light to moderate cash cattle trading surfaced in parts of the North with dressed prices ranging from $188 to $190 (mostly $188, $2 lower than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska). According to the closing report, the national hog base is .77 lower ($80.00-85.75, weighted average $84.79). At the conclusion of another very choppy session, corn futures closed a nickel-plus higher, supported by hot temps and some pollination worries. The stock market closed higher with the Dow up 66 points and the Nasdaq better by 40.
LIVE CATTLE
Reversing from a lower opening, live contracts staged a significant rally and closed 117 to 220 points higher (generally 300 points north of early session lows). While spot August remains stuck between the 100 and 40-day moving average (i.e., roughly 114 to 118.50), Oct and Dec did settle above 40-day moving averages. Indeed, December closed at its highest level since June 9. Beef cut-outs: mixed, up .24 (select, $195.49) to off .32 (choice, $207.73) with moderate demand and heavy offerings (107 loads of choice cuts, 45 loads of select cuts, 19 loads of trimmings, 27 loads of ground beef).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With wholesale prices and futures pulling in opposite directions, it's possible that significant trade volume could be delayed until sometime Friday.
FEEDER CATTLE
The bullish reversal here was even more pronounced, especially given further rumblings of yield threats in the corn trade. Prices closed 217 to 290 higher after spec and commercial buying interest were rejuvenated above 40-day moving averages. CME cash feeder index: 07/18: 149.16, up 1639.
LEAN HOGS
As if new spot August suddenly woke up to the bullish reality of cash premiums, the late summer contracts exploded by both October and December successfully recruited new buying interest near 100-day moving average and finished slightly above 40-moving averages. Carcass value closed moderately higher thanks to better demand for bellies, ribs, picnics, and hams. Pork cut-out: $104.69, up .70. CME cash lean index for 07/17: 92.46, off .04 (DTN Projected lean index for 07/18: 92.40, off .06).
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to .50 lower. Look for hog buyers to return to work on Thursday with steady/weak bids. Market numbers seem to be easier to move this week than they were last.

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