Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Feeder Cattle Pressure Spills Over to Live Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS: Moderate pressure continued to develop in most livestock trade. Summer feeder cattle contracts led the market lower with triple-digit losses. Limited volume was seen in most contracts, allowing for general market erosion midweek. Cash cattle activity remained generally sluggish Wednesday, and is likely to remain untraded until late in the week. A few token bids developed at $205 per cwt in the North, while asking prices are becoming slightly more available as the day progresses. Cattle are priced at $130 live and $207 and higher dressed. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.33 higher ($41.50-$46, weighted average $44.89) on 10,947 head sold. Corn futures were lower in light activity with May down 3 cents per bushel. Dow Jones Index is 100 points lower with the Nasdaq down 60 points.
LIVE CATTLE: Nearby live cattle contracts backed away from early support. Futures settled mixed, $0.45 lower to $0.07 higher. Limited support was seen most of the session as traders continued to focus on rebuilding buyer activity following early week losses. But the April contract slipped back below $129 per cwt in late-day trade as traders focused on the strong pressure in feeder cattle, as well as weakness in most other markets. Limited volume across the complex left little incentive for traders to make significant changes, allowing most contracts to hover within a narrow trading range. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.58 (select, $218.37) to up $0.89 (choice, $224.93) with light demand and light offerings, 133 loads (70 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 4 load of trimmings, 43 loads of coarse grinds).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Despite token bids developing late Wednesday, little direction is still seen in cash cattle markets. This is expected to push most trade off until late in the week, potentially after the Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon.
FEEDER CATTLE: Deferred feeder cattle contracts were under strong pressure Wednesday. Futures closed $0.22 to $1.05 lower. Additional follow-through pressure quickly stepped into the feeder cattle market, adding more uncertainty. Summer contracts continue to erode, breaking through support levels set in February. The lack of support comes as follow-through pressure in great trade is limiting production cost concerns. Late-summer contracts were under the most pressure, falling $1.05 per cwt, setting a weaker tone for the entire complex. CME cash feeder index for 3/5 is $139.59, down $0.04.
LEAN HOGS: Moderate pressure developed in lean hog trade midweek. Futures settled mixed, $0.82 lower to $0.02 higher. The April contract led the complex lower, falling 82 cents per cwt, on a lack of buyer interest. Even though the front-month futures contract remains nearly $2 per cwt under initial resistance set in mid-February, the still-weak fundamental outlook has continued to limit buyer interest. USDA also announced that it would intensify efforts to prevent African swine fever from entering the U.S. This causes some concern for the hog market, but the main focus remains on the abundant supply of market-ready hogs available to packers. Pork cutouts shifted higher on triple-digit gains in picnic, rib and belly cuts. Pork cutout values added $0.47 per cwt, moving to $63.06 per cwt on 302 loads. CME cash lean index for 3/4 is $51.94, up $0.01. DTN Projected lean index for 3/5 $51.85, down $0.09.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to 50 cents lower. Light price pressure is expected to redevelop Thursday morning following active buyer interest early in the week as processors remain focused on ample market-ready supplies. Thursday slaughter is expected at 477,000 head. Saturday runs are expected near 189,000 head.

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