Friday, February 7, 2020

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Trade Patiently Waiting

General Comments
Seeing what Friday's cash cattle trade will amount to will be insightful knowing that packers don't have enough inventory to sit the week completely out and feeders are pushing hard for higher prices. March corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 186.52 points and NASDAQ is down 5.89 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts are mostly higher with some deferred contracts trading just slightly lower as the noon hour approaches. February live cattle are up $0.05 at $121.17, April live cattle are up $0.05 at $119.80 and June live cattle are down $0.02 at $111.15. Cash cattle trade is looking like it might get interesting this afternoon -- late afternoon, as packers are really pushing back on paying current asking prices, but feeders are so far reluctant to break and accept lower bids. Given that both parties know that packer's supply is limited, and the market is current, packers will most likely end up bumping up their bids later Friday.
Boxed beef cutouts are lower: choice down $0.32 ($210.61) and select down $1.11 ($204.85) with a movement of 69 loads (37.28 loads of choice, 10.24 loads of select, 5.07 loads of trim and 16.49 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts are trading ever so slightly lower as the other two livestock complex trade mostly higher. March feeders are down $0.32 at $135.57, April feeders are down $0.30 at $137.27 and May feeders are down $0.55 at $139.50. Seeing that live cattle prices are trading mildly higher and that cash cattle prices are expected to be higher could help next week's feeder cattle market, but at this point the feeder cattle market is most likely set on trading lower.
LEAN HOGS
Another positive day is building in the lean hog market as over half of contract push above $1.00 gains as the noon hour approaches. Yesterday's announcement that China intends to roll back some of the tariffs on pork is a huge win for pork producers as they were worried about China's buying commitment and ability with the coronavirus outbreak. February lean hogs are down $0.40 at $57.30, April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $66.20 and May lean hogs are up $1.67 at $74.97.
The projected lean hog index for 2/06/2020 is down $0.87 at $59.58 and the index for 2/5/2020 was reported at $60.45, down $0.52. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.00 with a weighted average of $51.19, ranging from $44.00 to $51.52 on 3,560 head sold and five-day rolling average of $52.30. Pork cutouts total 233.84 loads with 203.67 loads of pork cuts and 30.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.06, $65.29.

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