GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock
futures continued moving in the same direction as last week, with live
and feeder cattle contracts' light Friday gains not enough to override
weekly losses, while lean hogs just kept posting gains with strong
fundamental support. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct
Afternoon Hog Report, off $0.47 with a weighted average of $45.89 on
5,038 head. December corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and December
soybean meal is up $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down
159.42 points and NASDAQ is down 149 points.
From
Friday to Friday: Livestock futures scored the following changes: Oct
live cattle down $0.45, Dec live cattle down $0.02; Sep feeder cattle
down $2.38, Oct feeder cattle down $1.68; Oct lean hogs up $6.18, Dec
lean hogs up $3.05.
LIVE CATTLE:
The
light to moderate cash trade from earlier in the week seemed to be all
that could be transacted this week, and feedlots did indeed dig in their
heels, maintaining asking prices of $015 on a live basis and $165
dressed, simply leaving this week's volume slim and rolling the cattle
over to next week's trade. Traded prices therefore were noted at mostly
$102 to $103 live in the South, and $162 to $163 dressed in the North,
or $2 to $4 lower than last week's weighted averages. Next week's
shortened holiday week notwithstanding, the volume of overall business
remains bullish for both packers selling beef and feedlots selling
cattle to packers, but more so for the packers, who continue to leverage
the lingering backlog of cattle and the relatively heavy animal weights
(1,365 pounds) to exercise seasonally bearish pressure on the market.
Live cattle futures contracts traded both lower and higher at various
points through the trading session, with the October contract ultimately
closing up $0.53 at $104.45. December live cattle closed up $0.65 at
$108.48 and February live cattle closed up $0.78 at $112.45. Friday's
slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- 1,000 below last week and
3,000 less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated at 44,000
head, bringing the weekly total to 633,000 head: 21,000 head less than
the prior week but 62,000 greater than 2019. Boxed beef prices were
lower: choice down $3.55 ($225.85) and select down $5.56 ($209.30).
MONDAY'S
CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. Packers are likely to be adamant about buying
cattle cheaper than Friday's hold-out asking prices.
FEEDER CATTLE:
With
the bulk of this year's calf crop still about a month away from running
through the sale barns, there aren't really enough numbers yet to test
feed yards' upcoming appetite for calves. But one large sale this week
at OKC West in Oklahoma showed moderate demand overall and good demand
for feeder steers, with lighter calves (under 800 pounds) $3 to $6 lower
compared to last week and the over-800's steady to $1 higher ($136.17).
Naturally, owners of this calf crop would prefer to see a return of the
$150 futures price seen back in mid-August instead of the sub-$140
prices now noted for all contracts through mid-2021. However, the cattle
complex couldn't go up forever and it commonly experiences a seasonal
peak in July or August, with seasonal pressure likely to continue for
feeder cattle prices through fall. The CME feeder cattle index 9/3/2020:
up $0.52, $140.20.
LEAN HOGS:
Carcass
values have displayed significant strength this week, particularly for
ribs and hams while bellies are seasonally losing ground, all of which
supports the bullish story playing out on the futures charts, where the
nearby October contract has rallied almost $4 through the month of
August and has tacked on another $6.22 during the past four trading
sessions. October lean hogs closed $0.58 higher at $59.83, December lean
hogs closed $0.28 higher at $58.25 and February lean hogs closed $0.20
higher at $63.03. Pork cutouts total 316.46 loads with 288.65 loads of
pork cuts and 27.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.37, $80.56.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 460,000 head -- 21,000 head less
than a week ago but 31,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's
slaughter is projected to be 119,000 head. The projected CME lean hog
index 9/3/2020: up $0.51, $58.64.
MONDAY'S
CASH HOG CALL: Steady to slightly lower. It would seem unlikely that the
pace of price gains could be sustained for too much longer, with
futures pulling off their highs even through Friday, and a three-day
weekend could reset packers' outlooks.
 |
| #completeherdhealth |
No comments:
Post a Comment