Thursday, September 10, 2020

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Bullish Hog Market Trend Continues

General Comments:
Moderate cash cattle trade developed Wednesday afternoon, which may have quickly set the tone for the week with prices generally $2 to $3 per cwt lower than last week. It is expected that further trade will remain stable with midweek price levels, although more cattle sales are expected to develop through the next couple of days. Live cattle sales in the South were reported at $101 per cwt, while dressed cattle in the North traded at $160 to $161 per cwt. Although there continues to be focus on readily available cattle for packers needs, supplies are expected to tighten over the next several weeks as the significantly reduced cattle placements in the spring should be ready for market around October. The upside of the market is likely to be curbed due to questions of demand growth, but the focus on limiting downside market shifts over the next couple of weeks could bring an end to the pressure over the near future. Despite the strong midweek pullback in prices, the move lower did little technical market damage with prices still contained within the previous sideways trading range and could remain stuck in this moderate-to-wide range through the near future. Feeder cattle futures remain the most volatile of the cattle contracts with the underlying bearish market swing over the last month still in control of market direction as traders continue to pull away from seasonal highs in August.

Active triple-digit gains once again developed in nearby lean hog futures Wednesday, adding even more market support to the entire complex. This last round of buying has quickly moved prices above the previously illusive $60 per cwt price point, with October futures settling at $61.37 per cwt. The aggressive move higher in cash cattle trade Wednesday is expected to add even more underlying support to the already strong market shift in the complex. Despite the continued firm market tone of the market, the unchecked gains over the last two weeks have moved prices to highs not seen since March in October futures, and could quickly bring about late-week position taking. A move lower is not unlikely in the near future, although the ability to change the long-term direction of the market may be limited at this point. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to $1 higher with most bids expected steady to 50 cents higher. Slaughter Thursday is expected at 485,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 410,000 head.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)
Live cattle futures continue to see limited downside market potential over the next several weeks. With supplies of market-ready cattle expected to quickly tighten over the next six weeks as lighter spring feeder cattle placements will start to make their way to showlists, packers should be much more aggressive through the fourth quarter of the year.
1)
Weaker cash cattle prices have developed once again with cash trade $2 to $3 per cwt lower in all areas. This midweek trade movement is likely to have set the tone for the week, causing additional concern that further pressure may develop through the rest of September.
2)
Despite concerns of decreased demand in food service demand this year, retail consumer demand for beef has remained strong. The typical pullback in beef demand after Labor Day may not be as significant this year based on the changing pattern of buying habits over the last six months.
2)
Beef cutout values continue to erode lower as traders remain concerned that additional pressure may develop following the Labor Day holiday. The impact of reduced schools in session is expected to have an impact on fall beef demand, but at this point, it is hard to measure the expected change in demand patterns.
3)
Sharp triple-digit gains in cash hog markets flooded the market, creating renewed fundamental support to the complex. The ability to narrow the gap between cash and futures prices is adding increased bullishness to the entire complex.
3)
Weekly Export Sales reports typically released on Thursday will be delayed until Friday due to the holiday Monday. This will create uncertainty as to the export activity China has had in the market over the last week. This could limit the recent futures optimism as traders are still actively concerned about trade relations with China.
4)
October lean hog futures not only broke above resistance levels of $60 per cwt, the ability to surge past these levels and to new six-month highs is creating additional momentum in the entire hog market.
4)
With lean hog futures surging higher over the last two weeks, the potential for a market correction is becoming more likely. This could spark active pressure, leading to triple-digit losses in the near future, but still unlikely to cause a change in market direction.


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