Friday, October 9, 2020

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Lower While Hogs Secure Profits Heading Into the Weekend

Friday's trade was all over the board as live cattle and lean hog contracts danced on both sides of steady. But, as the week closed, live cattle contracts fell lower and lean hogs jumped higher. Hog prices were lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.53 with a weighted average of $64.52 on 4,555 head. December lean hogs are up $0.28 at $67.125, December corn is up 8 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 161.39 points and NASDAQ is up 158.96 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes:

October live cattle up $1.70, December live cattle up $1.50; October feeder cattle down $1.65, November feeder cattle down $4.35; October lean hogs up $3.63, December lean hogs up $4.63.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex fought to keep contracts trading higher, but as the noon hour approached weakness overtook the marketplace and ultimately most of the contracts closed lower. October live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $109.87, December live cattle closed $0.02 lower at $112.60 and February live cattle closed $0.70 lower at $114.30. The resistance at $114 continues to loom over the heavily traded December contract and its bearish connotation aided in pushing contracts lower. On a more exciting note, the cash cattle market successfully concluded another week of $2.00 higher cash cattle trade through both the Northern and Southern Plains. Southern cattle traded mostly at $109 and dressed cattle traded at mostly $170. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head -- down 5,000 head from a week and a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 53,000 head. Friday's lighter kill is attributed to plant maintenance.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.94 ($214.06) and select down $3.28 ($199.82) with a movement of 124 loads (75.18 loads of choice, 29.56 loads of select, 10.92 loads of trim and 8.00 loads of ground beef).

This week's lower boxed beef prices gave the market an opportunity to move a considerable amount of product. On average throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $2.16 (down $2.06 from last week) and select cuts averaged $2.04 (down $2.57 from last week). This week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trimming was an impressive 745 loads!

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to slightly higher. As packers have been aggressive the last four weeks in the cash market, buying near 100,000 head each week, their supplies are growing. Thankfully there's a strong incentive for them to swiftly process cattle as boxed beef demand has been adequate and export demand strong.

FEEDER CATTLE:

This week in South Dakota compared to last week, steer calves sold steady to $5.00 lower with instances of $10.00 lower on 500 to 550 pound steers. Heifers calves sold $2.00 to $6.00 lower, with instances of $8.00 to $10.00 lower. Yearling feeders under 900 pounds sold steady to $3.00 lower and yearling heifers sold mostly $2.00 lower. There were a couple of sales throughout the week that had sizeable calf sales, but this upcoming week with be the market's first true test of the fall feeder cattle run. Farmer-feeder buyers are still tied up with their corn harvest and are working vigorously to get it harvested as the crop is dry, but their lack of participation in the feeder cattle markets partly contributed to the week's lower prices. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $4.00 lower, and slaughter bulls sold mostly $2.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 10/8/2020: down $0.68, $141.92.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market was indecisive throughout Friday's trade, moving higher and lower throughout the day. But as we neared the close, the market successfully secured higher prices before closing. October lean hogs closed $0.77 higher at $78.12, December lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $67.12 and February lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $70.55. Thankfully the market was able to comfortably breathe after seeing Thursday's higher export report. However, now questions arise concerning the longevity of these levels. Moving forward it will be crucial that domestic pork demand remains strong as well as seeing fruitful export reports. Pork cutouts totaled 368.58 loads with 326.01 loads of pork cuts and 42.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.56, $94.80. Friday's kill is estimated at 289,000 head -- 76,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 289,000 head. The CME lean hog index 10/7/2020: up $0.12, $77.62.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to slightly lower. The current cash hog market seems to be less appealing to packers as they sit on ample supplies.





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