GENERAL COMMENTS:
There's some slight hesitancy in both the deferred live cattle and feeder cattle contracts, but their nearby contracts are higher and the lean hog complex is on could nine. Unless traders bail completely out of the cattle contracts before the day's end, it's looking like the market may be able to pull off a higher close and round out the week with a stellar rally. May corn is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 160.65 points and NASDAQ is up 55.49 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures are keeping the upward progression in their nearby contracts, but some of the deferred contracts are simply steady. April live cattle are up $0.52 at $120.07. June live cattle are up $0.37 at $121.45 and August live cattle are up $0.22 at $120.60. The cash cattle market is quiet without any bids having been renewed at this point. There may be a few head trade before the day's close, but for the most part this week's business is wrapped up. Southern live cattle have been marked this week at mostly $115, with some sales of $116, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week. Northern dressed cattle have traded mostly at $184 to $185, which is $3.00 to $4.00 higher than last week's business. With boxed beef prices starting to warm up to the essence of spring, feedlots need to remember there's more market to be had -- they just need to be patient and milk their desired prices out of packers. Both this week and last week proved higher prices are usually seen in the later part of the week versus the earlier part of the week.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.95 ($238.40) and select up $2.84 ($229.09) with a movement of 60 loads (37.22 loads of choice, 4.87 loads of select, 11.09 loads of trim and 7.21 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
As the corn contracts post a slight rally, the feeder cattle contracts are seeing some modest hesitation grow throughout the complex. April feeders are up $0.55 at $144.77, May feeders are up $0.22 at $149.35 and August feeders are down $0.15 at $157.97. The market's regression could be a ripple effect from the corn prices, but they could also be trading lower as traders realize the stark advancements the contracts have made over the last week and don't want to over extend the market before heading into the weekend. It's not unlikely that, if the momentum in the cash cattle market can continue into next week's trade (which is very likely), the feeder cattle contracts will be back to their higher quest.
LEAN HOGS:
That's it. That does it. I'm a believer. Pigs must honestly be able to fly! Look at this lean hog complex, it's nearly unbelievable. From the April 2021 through the July 2021 contract, all the contracts are trading above $100.00. Whether you wanted to tout before Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report that the rally was due to short supplies or just exponential demand, the point moving forward is that both are true, and supplies are expected to lessen even more. April lean hogs are up $1.15 at $100.82, June lean hogs are up $1.95 at $105.27 and July lean hogs are up $1.55 at $104.22.
The projected CME lean hog index for 3/25/2021 is up $1.38 at $95.97 and the actual index for 3/24/2021 is up $0.74 at $94.59. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.14 with a weighted average of $94.56, ranging from $91.75 to $100.00 on 4,600 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.76. Pork cutouts total 173.74 loads with 156.10 loads of pork cuts and 17.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.29, $111.53.
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